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Will M
07-18-2010, 06:50 PM
Since June 15th (29 games):

12-0 L Kuroda
1-0 L C Lee
5-1 L Felix
1-0 L some guy named Ryan Rowland Smith (ERA 6.18)
3-1 L Randy Wells
3-0 L Santana
1-0 L Halladay
1-0 L Hamels
1-0 L Cook

Thats nine games in the last 29 where the team has scored zero or only one run. Now there are some fine pitchers on the above list but even really good pitchers don't have ERAs of zero. the FIVE 1-0 losses really stand out.

I strongly believe that this team will not play in October unless Walt/Bob do something to boost the offense. Replacing the Corkster with Ramon & replacing Nix with Dickerson will help but I think the team needs more than that.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 06:54 PM
Jay Bruce has fallen off a cliff. And Gomes has regressed some . Rolen's been sporadic.

Crosley68
07-18-2010, 07:03 PM
Since June 15th (29 games):

12-0 L Kuroda
1-0 L C Lee
5-1 L Felix
1-0 L some guy named Ryan Rowland Smith (ERA 6.18)
3-1 L Randy Wells
3-0 L Santana
1-0 L Halladay
1-0 L Hamels
1-0 L Cook

Thats nine games in the last 29 where the team has scored zero or only one run. Now there are some fine pitchers on the above list but even really good pitchers don't have ERAs of zero. the FIVE 1-0 losses really stand out.

I strongly believe that this team will not play in October unless Walt/Bob do something to boost the offense. Replacing the Corkster with Ramon & replacing Nix with Dickerson will help but I think the team needs more than that.

I agree completely and have been feeling this way for almost a month also. It seems that The Reds are good at "piling on" which makes the stats appear solid.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 07:05 PM
Bruce has a .400 OPS in 51 ABs in July.

WVRedsFan
07-18-2010, 07:07 PM
Remember early on when the bottom of the order came through with some timely hits and RBI's? Hernandez, Stubbs, Hanigan, Gomes--all of them contributed for some runs. Except for the occasional home run from Gomes or Stubbs, the hitting isn't there. Corky Miller is a black hole at the plate and any time you don't have Rolen in the lineup it hurts.

It also doesn't help that Phillips isn't hitting right now, Votto is pushing by swinging early in the count (Heather, tell Joey to go back to the way he used to handle plate appearances :)), and Jay Bruce is just lost at the plate. It doesn't help that Dusty marches out Laynce Nix everytime he wants to spell Gomes and Bruce (Nix has a .265 OBP and dropping) and leaves Heisey on the bench. And forget about Dickerson--he gets hurt often and has many of the same problems Bruce and Nix have at the plate.

This team needs another genuine MLB hitter to play in left and right when Gomes and Bruce go through their spells (and Stubbs, too)--or even start. Will it happen? Nah. the Reds value so much fodder that I expect them to go aftter more pitching (not that it's not needed in the bullpen) and stand pat. That's the the formula for some time,

*BaseClogger*
07-18-2010, 07:08 PM
Regression to the BA w/RISP mean...

Ron Madden
07-18-2010, 07:12 PM
Regression to the BA w/RISP mean...

:laugh: I was just thinking the same thing.

Caveat Emperor
07-18-2010, 07:16 PM
The four 1-0 losses are really the sickening part. Teams that lose 1-0 games on such a regular basis don't deserve to make the post season.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2010, 07:21 PM
How about a straight platoon of Heisey/Bruce in right and acquire a lefty complement to Gomes in left? Biggest boost to the offense/littlest impact on the defense.

Marc D
07-18-2010, 07:30 PM
If you look at the runs by game you find the data is right skewed (mean > median by almost a full run). This recent run of extremely low scores, statistically speaking, could be nothing more than good ol' regression to a symmetrical distribution.

for those who care:

OnBaseMachine
07-18-2010, 07:32 PM
Five 1-0 losses within a month. I've never seen that happen before.

WVRedsFan
07-18-2010, 07:34 PM
How about a straight platoon of Heisey/Bruce in right and acquire a lefty complement to Gomes in left? Biggest boost to the offense/littlest impact on the defense.
That's what I'm talking about.

Reds are 14-12 over the last month in which they scored 115 runs and allowed 78. Not bad, but when you consider that included 10-3, 12-0, 14-3, and 8-1 wins, the picture gets murky. Over the last ten, the Reds are 4-6, have been shutout 4 times, 3 times 0-1. Not good.

You can win with good pitchingm, which I believe we have, but you must score runs. In the last ten games, the Reds have failed to score 3 or less runs in 7 games. You cannot expect to stay with the Cardinals with that kind of offense. Time to cut Nix, get Hernandez back and send Corky back to his environment in AAA, and find some offensive outfield help, Dickerson is not your answer and the platoon in right field makes too much sense for the Reds to try it because they are so sold on Bruce. We'll see what happens.

Brutus
07-18-2010, 07:44 PM
The four 1-0 losses are really the sickening part. Teams that lose 1-0 games on such a regular basis don't deserve to make the post season.

The Reds' offense has been woefully inconsistent, and most definitely needs to bring it a little more often. However, they're still leading the NL in Runs, OBP, SLG and OPS. That has to count for something, I think.

There has already been 175 shutouts this season in Major League Baseball (252 all of last year, which was a lot more than the several years prior). The 1-0 games have been happening at an alarming rate this year around baseball. I think people need to stop expecting the type of offensive output from teams they've seen the last 10-15 years and judge the team relative to its peers. And again, the Reds statistically have scored more runs than anyone in the league.

TheNext44
07-18-2010, 07:46 PM
This past month the Reds have scored around a run less a game than the rest of the season (4.2 to 5.1) Still, even at 4.2 runs the rest of the way, they will score more runs than most projections had them at the beginning of the year.

To put more plainly what others have said, the Reds were on a hot streak for the first 60 games, and now are in a slump. Just as it was silly to expect them to continue to score 5.1 runs a game, it's just as silly to assume that this slump will last all season.

OnBaseMachine
07-18-2010, 07:49 PM
I wonder how many runs the Reds are scoring per game against teams not named the Pirates/Astros/Cubs?

Ron Madden
07-18-2010, 07:54 PM
Why is this thread so large?

It doesn't even come close to fitting on the screen of my monitor.

fearofpopvol1
07-18-2010, 07:59 PM
All offense's slump from time to time...it happens. But it definitely stings more when the Reds pitching pitches well and the offense crumbles. Especially against a crappy pitcher like today.

I think a large part is just being hacktastic. Do you know how many 1st and 2nd pitch swings we see now? And I really do think Dusty drives this philosophy. He would much rather swing at a strike than take one. I can appreciate it to an extent, but odds are over the longhaul, you're going to make a lot of outs and make for easy innings for the pitcher by doing it.

I think Dusty shoots himself in the foot with resting players too. It's not a good idea to rest 3 starters on the same day and he's done that a few times now.

Still, it's kind of hard to complain about taking 2 out of 3 from a good team like the Rockies. The Reds pitching absolutely shut them down and the Rox have a very good offense.

Ghosts of 1990
07-18-2010, 08:02 PM
All offense's slump from time to time...it happens. But it definitely stings more when the Reds pitching pitches well and the offense crumbles. Especially against a crappy pitcher like today.


Thats what made me so angry today. Aaron Cook at this point in his career is as run of the mill righty as it gets.

fearofpopvol1
07-18-2010, 08:02 PM
Bruce has a .400 OPS in 51 ABs in July.

Laynce Nix is really no better (and I give a Bruce a nod on the defense). Why does Dusty refuse to start Heisey?

bucksfan2
07-18-2010, 08:07 PM
All offense's slump from time to time...it happens. But it definitely stings more when the Reds pitching pitches well and the offense crumbles. Especially against a crappy pitcher like today.

I think a large part is just being hacktastic. Do you know how many 1st and 2nd pitch swings we see now? And I really do think Dusty drives this philosophy. He would much rather swing at a strike than take one. I can appreciate it to an extent, but odds are over the longhaul, you're going to make a lot of outs and make for easy innings for the pitcher by doing it.

I think Dusty shoots himself in the foot with resting players too. It's not a good idea to rest 3 starters on the same day and he's done that a few times now.

Still, it's kind of hard to complain about taking 2 out of 3 from a good team like the Rockies. The Reds pitching absolutely shut them down and the Rox have a very good offense.

These kind of post drive me nuts.

First of all Aaron Cook isn't a crappy pitcher.

Second of all I was listening to the game on the radio and Jim Kelch and Chris Welch made a point how in his career Aaron Cook has very good command. They said it was a little shaky in his first handful of starts this season but in his last couple of starts his command was back. I don't have an issue with the Reds going up there and swinging early in the count if a pitcher has his good command. I think saying that the Reds were "hacktastic" today becaus of Dusty ignores any kind of scouting report the Reds may have had. And it goes back to the false myth that Dusty doesn't like walks.

1-0 losses happen. Shutouts are happening at an alarming rate this year across all of baseball. To expect this team to be an offensive juggernaut when their cleanup hitter is out with the flu and Jay Bruce has the day off is expecting quite a bit from this club. I don't worry so much about individual games and look moreso at the larger pitcture. The Reds took 2-3 from a good baseball club.

BCubb2003
07-18-2010, 08:08 PM
The offense sparked when Cabrera was moved out of the leadoff spot. Maybe they can try that again.

savafan
07-18-2010, 08:21 PM
Well, Russ Springer is a career .074 hitter, so that's going to help. ;)

fearofpopvol1
07-18-2010, 08:22 PM
These kind of post drive me nuts.

I'd say the same about your post, especially when it's all opinion and little-to-no facts.


First of all Aaron Cook isn't a crappy pitcher.

Crappy may have been an overstatement as his career has been pretty good, but he has been crappy this year and has been horrible on the road this year. The statement can be justified.


Second of all I was listening to the game on the radio and Jim Kelch and Chris Welch made a point how in his career Aaron Cook has very good command. They said it was a little shaky in his first handful of starts this season but in his last couple of starts his command was back.

Cook has had 40 BB in 99 innings this year. That's more than a handful of starts with bad command.


I don't have an issue with the Reds going up there and swinging early in the count if a pitcher has his good command. I think saying that the Reds were "hacktastic" today becaus of Dusty ignores any kind of scouting report the Reds may have had. And it goes back to the false myth that Dusty doesn't like walks.

The scouting report should have read...Cook has walked 40 batters in 99 innings this year prior to today. How else can you spin it? That's not impressive. Also, maybe you haven't paid attention to the last 10 games or so, but look at the swinging counts for Reds hitters. Generally, they have become more impatient as of late and are swinging earlier in the counts. Sometimes it has worked, most of the time it hasn't.

CrackerJack
07-18-2010, 08:23 PM
Lance McAlister's summary:


Reds shutout 1-0 by the Rockies.
It's the 11th time the Reds have been shutout in 93 games this season.
They have lost 1-0 three times in last five games........and five times in their last 26 games.
They have lost 18 times scoring 2 runs or less this season.....2-18 overall.
The have scored fewer than three runs in 20 of 93 games (21.5%)
6-11 without Rolen in staring lineup......45-31 with Rolen in starting lineup.



Boom or bust offense could be helped out by finding a better bat for the lineup when Rolen (or Gomes or Bruce) are not playing. Nix is not getting it done as a PH or spot starter. Janish is never used, and to a lesser extent Heisey.

Not panicking, but this team is better than its record shows.

oregonred
07-18-2010, 09:15 PM
Five 1-0 losses in a 26 game span is almost unheard of...

In fact the Reds have by far the best ERA in baseball in the month of July (2.32) with no other NL team even under 3.00 Yet they only have a 7-7 record to show for it due to the string of shut outs, some bad luck and untimely hitting. Even with the 9th inning meltdown in Philly, this staff is yielding 2 runs a game over the month. 128IP, only 90 hits and a WHIP barely over 1.00. First in OPS against, the list goes on...

That 7-7 stretch should easily be 11-3 or 12-2 and then this team is pushing 20 games over .500 at 56-37 or 55-38 and leaving the rest of the NL in the dust. It is incredibly frustrating, yet amazing encouraging the potential that this rotation and team has going forward.

Adding Volquez and Wood to this rotation is going to make for a fun rest of 2010 and the potential for 2011-2014 is beyond exciting.

edabbs44
07-18-2010, 09:24 PM
I wonder how many runs the Reds are scoring per game against teams not named the Pirates/Astros/Cubs?

Just a tad under what the Cards are scoring vs the entire league.

Reds vs the Big 3 named above: 4.82 rpg
Reds vs the rest of the league: 4.36 rpg
Cards overall: 4.49 rpg

In other words, the sky isn't falling just yet.

REDblooded
07-18-2010, 09:28 PM
what's with the posting style's that are creating mile-wide pages? Makes it completely unreadable...

Tornon
07-18-2010, 09:31 PM
Why is this thread so large?

It doesn't even come close to fitting on the screen of my monitor.

I blame Marc D's post with all the statistics

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 12:42 AM
The offense struggling is a combination of many things. Regression to the mean, injuries, etc. Is anyone really surprised we got shut out today? Cairo, Nix and Corky were all in the lineup today, not to mention the black hole that is Jay Bruce's bat. Including the pitcher, that's pretty much five automatic outs, which leaves the rest of the guys needing to do too much and pressing at the plate.

Big Klu
07-19-2010, 01:17 AM
.297/.342/.405/.747 is an automatic out?

Hoosier Red
07-19-2010, 01:38 AM
Five 1-0 losses within a month. I've never seen that happen before.


That's what I'm talking about.

Reds are 14-12 over the last month in which they scored 115 runs and allowed 78. Not bad, but when you consider that included 10-3, 12-0, 14-3, and 8-1 wins, the picture gets murky. Over the last ten, the Reds are 4-6, have been shutout 4 times, 3 times 0-1. Not good.


See I think it's just the opposite. We went 14-12 in a month when we lost 5 games 1-0. Think about how unlikely it is to lose 1-0. Now imagine it happening 5 times. That's an amazing amount of bad luck combined with ineptitude. And yet despite that we had a winning record over the course of a month.

I think if there's any statistical lesson learned here at Redszone, it's that the larger the sample the size, the more you can trust the stats.

The large sample size says the Reds have the best offense in the league.
The last month says they've been shut out 7 times in 29 games. Does it seem likely that the Reds will be shut out 7 more times?

reds44
07-19-2010, 02:13 AM
When your run production is largely slugging based, this is what happens. We only had 5 hits Saturday night, but 4 of them were homers. This afternoon we didn't hit homers, and this is what youg et.

The Reds really need a high BA/OB guy somewhere in the lineup.

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 02:16 AM
.297/.342/.405/.747 is an automatic out?

If you're referencing Cairo's numbers, which I suspect you are, then yes, it is. The swing he had on Huston Street's slider was simply embarrassing. Not to belittle his effort, because he's filled in admirably for Rolen when Rolen's been out. But fact is, it's been a very small sample size, and the chances of him coming close to that production down the stretch, and with the more time he gets, is unrealistic. Miguel Cairo is what he is, which is a decent player to have off the bench, and that's about it.

Brutus
07-19-2010, 02:20 AM
When your run production is largely slugging based, this is what happens. We only had 5 hits Saturday night, but 4 of them were homers. This afternoon we didn't hit homers, and this is what youg et.

The Reds really need a high BA/OB guy somewhere in the lineup.

It hasn't been that bad, though. In July, the Reds have been middle-of-the-pack with regards to team On Base Percentage. They haven't been good this month, but they also haven't been atrocious.

WVRedsFan
07-19-2010, 03:09 AM
When you lose four games (or whatever it is) by 0-1, it is atrocious. Good grief. Time to look at what we're putting out there and make some changes. Getting Rolen and Hernandez back will help and hoping Gomes and Phillips start hitting again is one thing, but he sad story of this little slump is that we are so dependent on them. Time for the Reds to look for help offensively and quit trying to obtain Cy Young. We have good pitching and regardless of the offensive statistics, it woefully obvious that another bat is needed.

bucksfan2
07-19-2010, 09:33 AM
If you're referencing Cairo's numbers, which I suspect you are, then yes, it is. The swing he had on Huston Street's slider was simply embarrassing. Not to belittle his effort, because he's filled in admirably for Rolen when Rolen's been out. But fact is, it's been a very small sample size, and the chances of him coming close to that production down the stretch, and with the more time he gets, is unrealistic. Miguel Cairo is what he is, which is a decent player to have off the bench, and that's about it.

You mean Hudson Street can make someone look foolish? Guy has been a top closer in the league when healthy over the past couple of seasons.

I agree that Miguel Cairo is what he is, a decent player to have coming off the bench. But then again he was doing exactly what you said in yesterday's game. He was in the lineup because Rolen had the flu. The 24th or 25th man on the roster has to do exactly that, fill in on spot duty when called up. I have absolutely no issue with the way Cairo has been playing this season. Just about a week or so ago Cairo came off the bench and had a game tying RBI double against another closer. Guy is doing his job pretty well if you ask me.

edabbs44
07-19-2010, 10:30 AM
When you lose four games (or whatever it is) by 0-1, it is atrocious. Good grief. Time to look at what we're putting out there and make some changes. Getting Rolen and Hernandez back will help and hoping Gomes and Phillips start hitting again is one thing, but he sad story of this little slump is that we are so dependent on them. Time for the Reds to look for help offensively and quit trying to obtain Cy Young. We have good pitching and regardless of the offensive statistics, it woefully obvious that another bat is needed.

Disagree with this, I don't think that Cincy will be able to get enough of an upgrade through a trade to make this worth it. The thing that everyone has to realize is that this is Year 1 of (hopefully) a long-term, sustainable run towards the top of the NL Central and, hopefully, the NL. Walt isn't going all in just because the fans are crying for it.

I've seen a lot of posters clamoring for Walt to make the move because they haven't seen a playoff game in their lives or in 15 years or blah blah blah. While the FO probably sympathizes with that, they also aren't going to empty the farm to appease you in the short term. They are in this for the long haul and will most likely upgrade if it doesn't materially affect the plan they have in place. That would include either trading young talent away for rentals or benching young talent because they might not be living up to your expectations.

Renting a player for two months may (or may not) help the team right now, but do you know what will help the organization even more? Getting guys like Stubbs and Bruce experience in the stretch run in games that matter and helping them succeed. Maybe the team fades down the stretch, but this isn't the last year of Cincinnati baseball.

VR
07-19-2010, 11:04 AM
See I think it's just the opposite. We went 14-12 in a month when we lost 5 games 1-0. Think about how unlikely it is to lose 1-0. Now imagine it happening 5 times. That's an amazing amount of bad luck combined with ineptitude. And yet despite that we had a winning record over the course of a month.

I think if there's any statistical lesson learned here at Redszone, it's that the larger the sample the size, the more you can trust the stats.

The large sample size says the Reds have the best offense in the league.
The last month says they've been shut out 7 times in 29 games. Does it seem likely that the Reds will be shut out 7 more times?

Nice post Hoosier.

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 12:00 PM
You mean Hudson Street can make someone look foolish? Guy has been a top closer in the league when healthy over the past couple of seasons.

I agree that Miguel Cairo is what he is, a decent player to have coming off the bench. But then again he was doing exactly what you said in yesterday's game. He was in the lineup because Rolen had the flu. The 24th or 25th man on the roster has to do exactly that, fill in on spot duty when called up. I have absolutely no issue with the way Cairo has been playing this season. Just about a week or so ago Cairo came off the bench and had a game tying RBI double against another closer. Guy is doing his job pretty well if you ask me.

Hey, me and you agree completely on what Cairo is. I don't hate having the guy on the roster. But the fact of the matter is, when he's hitting sixth in your lineup, in between the likes of Nix and Stubbs, it probably spells trouble. That's all I was getting at.

And yes, Huston Street can make people look silly. But the swing Cairo had on that slider isn't a swing that a guy with a quality batting eye puts on a ball. Or attempts to put on a ball, anyways, haha.

Honestly, I'd rather give Janish more time at 3B to see how he fares.

PuffyPig
07-19-2010, 12:04 PM
When you lose four games (or whatever it is) by 0-1, it is atrocious. Good grief. Time to look at what we're putting out there and make some changes. Getting Rolen and Hernandez back will help and hoping Gomes and Phillips start hitting again is one thing, but he sad story of this little slump is that we are so dependent on them.

So you don't think the Reds shouldn't be dependant on Rolen, Hernandez, Gomes and Phillips? That's half our hitters.

Every team is offensively dependant on half their hitters.

PuffyPig
07-19-2010, 12:06 PM
The swing he had on Huston Street's slider was simply embarrassing.

Sure it was, but he actually looked no worse than Brandon Phillips.

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 12:27 PM
Sure it was, but he actually looked no worse than Brandon Phillips.

Well, bottom line is, that lineup sucked. I didn't mean to turn this into a Cairo discussion, I think we're the argument is just going in circles anyways. My only point was that if you throw a lineup out there with five blackholes in it, you shouldn't be surprised when Aaron Cook shuts it down.

bucksfan2
07-19-2010, 12:37 PM
Well, bottom line is, that lineup sucked. I didn't mean to turn this into a Cairo discussion, I think we're the argument is just going in circles anyways. My only point was that if you throw a lineup out there with five blackholes in it, you shouldn't be surprised when Aaron Cook shuts it down.

And yet that lineup, sans its starting 3b, starting RF, and starting C came within one sac fly or base hit of forcing extra innings. Had boy wonder Chris Heisey done his job the Reds may have stolen a game instead of had a bad loss as many are claiming.

BCubb2003
07-19-2010, 12:55 PM
And yet that lineup, sans its starting 3b, starting RF, and starting C came within one sac fly or base hit of forcing extra innings. Had boy wonder Chris Heisey done his job the Reds may have stolen a game instead of had a bad loss as many are claiming.

I'd like to think so, but that might be the whole point. I'm beginning to think the Reds have A and B squads. The A squad can score seven runs a game. The B squad can't score a single run.

BRM
07-19-2010, 01:09 PM
Had boy wonder Chris Heisey done his job the Reds may have stolen a game instead of had a bad loss as many are claiming.

You could say that about the entire lineup. It wasn't just "boy wonder" that didn't deliver.

edabbs44
07-19-2010, 01:28 PM
So you don't think the Reds shouldn't be dependant on Rolen, Hernandez, Gomes and Phillips? That's half our hitters.

Every team is offensively dependant on half their hitters.

What about Votto?

mdccclxix
07-19-2010, 01:30 PM
Anybody else think of Juan Francisco while Nix fouled off a dozen fastballs to a strike throwing Betancourt with men on base? Then popped out on a fastball?

I sure did.

Homer Bailey
07-19-2010, 02:17 PM
Anybody else think of Juan Francisco while Nix fouled off a dozen fastballs to a strike throwing Betancourt with men on base? Then popped out on a fastball?

I sure did.

Weird you say that. That's exactly what I was thinking during that at bat. At no point did I think Nix was going to get a hit there.

Big Klu
07-19-2010, 02:19 PM
If you're referencing Cairo's numbers, which I suspect you are, then yes, it is. The swing he had on Huston Street's slider was simply embarrassing. Not to belittle his effort, because he's filled in admirably for Rolen when Rolen's been out. But fact is, it's been a very small sample size, and the chances of him coming close to that production down the stretch, and with the more time he gets, is unrealistic. Miguel Cairo is what he is, which is a decent player to have off the bench, and that's about it.

Yes, I was referencing Cairo's numbers. I mean, it's not All-Star production...oh wait, maybe it is!


Omar Infante: .325/.351/.396/.747 :D


Miguel Cairo is not the problem. He is a solid utility infielder, and that is exactly how he is being used.



Hey, me and you agree completely on what Cairo is. I don't hate having the guy on the roster. But the fact of the matter is, when he's hitting sixth in your lineup, in between the likes of Nix and Stubbs, it probably spells trouble. That's all I was getting at.

And yes, Huston Street can make people look silly. But the swing Cairo had on that slider isn't a swing that a guy with a quality batting eye puts on a ball. Or attempts to put on a ball, anyways, haha.

Honestly, I'd rather give Janish more time at 3B to see how he fares.

You are complaining about Cairo's offense, and yet you want to put Janish at 3B "to see how he fares"? How far below replacement level do you want to go?

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 02:30 PM
Yes, I was referencing Cairo's numbers. I mean, it's not All-Star production...oh wait, maybe it is!


Omar Infante: .325/.351/.396/.747 :D


Miguel Cairo is not the problem. He is a solid utility infielder, and that is exactly how he is being used.




You are complaining about Cairo's offense, and yet you want to put Janish at 3B "to see how he fares"? How far below replacement level do you want to go?

The problem isn't so much Janish or Cairo. It's replacing Rolen's bat, which is obviously crucial to this offense, with one of those bats. That's a drop-off of epic proportions. The elephant in the room the rest of this season is Scott Rolen's health.

Chip R
07-19-2010, 02:49 PM
The problem isn't so much Janish or Cairo. It's replacing Rolen's bat, which is obviously crucial to this offense, with one of those bats. That's a drop-off of epic proportions. The elephant in the room the rest of this season is Scott Rolen's health.


Let's not get carried away because of a 1-0 loss. It's not like Rolen broke his ankle and we won't see him again for 2 months. He had the flu. He should be back very soon. Yes, he does have back trouble but he hasn't gone on the DL because of it.

CrackerJack
07-19-2010, 03:01 PM
Let's not get carried away because of a 1-0 loss. It's not like Rolen broke his ankle and we won't see him again for 2 months. He had the flu. He should be back very soon. Yes, he does have back trouble but he hasn't gone on the DL because of it.

Well I think its the fact that he gets regular rest, on most Sundays in particular, where their record is pretty awful this year (w/out Rolen) and it should be addressed and not ignored in my opinion.

You're taking your cleanup hitter out of the lineup once or twice a week and Bruce is not providing any protection in his absence, for Gomes or Votto, when he goes into his prolonged funks and hasn't improved vs lefties.

It would be nice to have a good upside bat with some power other than Nix who can also play 3B - Francisco comes to mind but I assume they want him to get regular AB's still, or feel he's not ready yet. I know that he's a bit of a defensive liability also, and is probably why they hold onto Nix.

CrackerJack
07-19-2010, 03:03 PM
See I think it's just the opposite. We went 14-12 in a month when we lost 5 games 1-0. Think about how unlikely it is to lose 1-0. Now imagine it happening 5 times. That's an amazing amount of bad luck combined with ineptitude. And yet despite that we had a winning record over the course of a month.

I think if there's any statistical lesson learned here at Redszone, it's that the larger the sample the size, the more you can trust the stats.

The large sample size says the Reds have the best offense in the league.
The last month says they've been shut out 7 times in 29 games. Does it seem likely that the Reds will be shut out 7 more times?

Maybe a case for tweaking and not wholesale replacements or changes?

Chip R
07-19-2010, 03:08 PM
Well I think its the fact that he gets regular rest, on most Sundays in particular, where their record is pretty awful this year (w/out Rolen) and it should be addressed and not ignored in my opinion.

You're taking your cleanup hitter out of the lineup once or twice a week and Bruce is not providing any protection in his absence, for Gomes or Votto, when he goes into his prolonged funks and hasn't improved vs lefties.

It would be nice to have a good upside bat with some power other than Nix who can also play 3B - Francisco comes to mind but I assume they want him to get regular AB's still, or feel he's not ready yet. I know that he's a bit of a defensive liability also, and is probably why they hold onto Nix.


He was out on Saturday night and they scored 8 runs.

Rojo
07-19-2010, 04:06 PM
This team's pitching is better and it's offense worse than the first half numbers indicate.

Going into the season a lot of people clamored for a big bat in left. I think that was accurate. Bruce is still a kid, Rolen isn't. Stubb's bat is bi-polar and Gomes is a platoon player.

You could tweek this group -- Dickerson/Gomes in left, Bruce/Heisey in right, dump Nyx for a better bat, drop OCab down in the lineup -- to score a few more runs. But Dusty shows no creativity on this front. The most realistic option is to find a rent-a-bat. A Josh Willingham or Luke Scott or even, and wouldn't this be something, Jim Edmonds.

Ron Madden
07-19-2010, 04:11 PM
This team's pitching is better and it's offense worse than the first half numbers indicate.

Going into the season a lot of people clamored for a big bat in left. I think that was accurate. Bruce is still a kid, Rolen isn't. Stubb's bat is bi-polar and Gomes is a platoon player.

You could tweek this group -- Dickerson/Gomes in left, Bruce/Heisey in right, dump Nyx for a better bat, drop OCab down in the lineup -- to score a few more runs. But Dusty shows no creativity on this front. The most realistic option is to find a rent-a-bat. A Josh Willingham or Luke Scott or even, and wouldn't this be something, Jim Edmonds.

Good post.

I agree with everything stated above except the line about Jim Edmonds.;)

Orenda
07-19-2010, 04:39 PM
Anybody else think of Juan Francisco while Nix fouled off a dozen fastballs to a strike throwing Betancourt with men on base? Then popped out on a fastball?

I sure did.

Can't say that I did. I wonder if Betancourt would have even needed to throw Juan Francisco a strike in that situation to get him to swing...probably not many good ones.

edabbs44
07-19-2010, 04:41 PM
This team's pitching is better and it's offense worse than the first half numbers indicate.

Going into the season a lot of people clamored for a big bat in left. I think that was accurate. Bruce is still a kid, Rolen isn't. Stubb's bat is bi-polar and Gomes is a platoon player.

You could tweek this group -- Dickerson/Gomes in left, Bruce/Heisey in right, dump Nyx for a better bat, drop OCab down in the lineup -- to score a few more runs. But Dusty shows no creativity on this front. The most realistic option is to find a rent-a-bat. A Josh Willingham or Luke Scott or even, and wouldn't this be something, Jim Edmonds.

Dickerson wouldn't improve this teams offense.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 05:43 PM
Anybody else think of Juan Francisco while Nix fouled off a dozen fastballs to a strike throwing Betancourt with men on base? Then popped out on a fastball?

I sure did.

More like Danny Dorn, who is a LH guy who crushes RHP. Francisco needs more development. And how to take a walk.

reds44
07-19-2010, 05:46 PM
He was out on Saturday night and they scored 8 runs.
On 5 hits. Not going to do that very often.

cincrazy
07-19-2010, 06:15 PM
Let's not get carried away because of a 1-0 loss. It's not like Rolen broke his ankle and we won't see him again for 2 months. He had the flu. He should be back very soon. Yes, he does have back trouble but he hasn't gone on the DL because of it.

I'm not getting carried away. Just being realistic about the man's age and injury history. And since I've made my original post, it's been reported that he's likely to end up on the DL.

savafan
07-19-2010, 06:26 PM
I know he's 45 years old, about to turn 46, and been out of baseball for almost three years now, but I almost wonder if Barry Bonds' agent hasn't put in at least one phone call to Walt to gauge if there's any interest, or had Dusty mention the subject in passing.

I think I'm only half kidding about that...I think...

Rojo
07-19-2010, 06:30 PM
Dickerson wouldn't improve this teams offense.

Based on his past numbers, he'd be a small improvement over Gomes vs. righties plus defense and speed.

But, no, I don't think anyone thinks CD is THE answer.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 06:50 PM
Dickerson wouldn't improve this teams offense.

He'd be a safe bet to improve this team's offense against righties and he would definitely improve this team's defense.

reds44
07-19-2010, 06:52 PM
All that really needs to be said about Dickerson is, he's better than Laynce Nix.

There's nothing to debate there.

Chip R
07-19-2010, 08:02 PM
On 5 hits. Not going to do that very often.

7 runs on 15 hits without him against the Phillies.

nate
07-19-2010, 09:43 PM
You could say that about the entire lineup. It wasn't just "boy wonder" that didn't deliver.

Word.

Chip R
07-19-2010, 11:43 PM
7 runs and 10 hits tonight. His replacement had a pretty good game tonight.

edabbs44
07-19-2010, 11:52 PM
7 runs and 10 hits tonight. His replacement had a pretty good game tonight.

The offense is back, baby.

cincrazy
07-20-2010, 12:16 AM
7 runs and 10 hits tonight. His replacement had a pretty good game tonight.

Cairo did nothing to help my argument tonight ;). But I'll take that performance every time out. He's been exceptional out there. I just worry about his ability to sustain it.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 01:41 AM
The team is very home run dependent and not so great with situational hitting. This is also not a great road team either. They're 10 games above .500 at home, but only .500 on the road.

If the Reds were to get to the playoffs and were unable to secure home field advantage, I think that would be bad news for them.

backbencher
07-20-2010, 01:45 AM
The team is very home run dependent and not so great with situational hitting. This is also not a great road team either. They're 10 games above .500 at home, but only .500 on the road.

If the Reds were to get to the playoffs and were unable to secure home field advantage, I think that would be bad news for them.

The Reds have the second-best road record in the NL.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 01:46 AM
The Reds have the second-best road record in the NL.

Is .500 a great road record? I don't think it is, but to each his own.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2010, 01:50 AM
Is .500 a great road record? I don't think it is, but to each his own.

If it's the second best road record in the NL, it's more than good enough. "Great" is relative.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 01:51 AM
Is .500 a great road record? I don't think it is, but to each his own.

Considering 6 teams have winning road records in the MLB, yes, it is a great road record.

Caveat Emperor
07-20-2010, 01:52 AM
Offensive Stat o' the Night (as of 7/20/10):

Jay Bruce season OPS: .760
Drew Stubbs season OPS: .756

oregonred
07-20-2010, 01:52 AM
Other than May this offense has been league average the rest of the season. Of course, Bruce's sub .400 July OPS and Rolen's limited 33 AB's aren't helping the statistical offensive cause much so far this month.

April = .713 OPS
May = .873 OPS
June = .746 OPS
July = .740 OPS

Pitching and defense continues to be simply lights out. Now 2.30 ERA with 137 IP and 94hits allowed in July. A Sub-.200 BA. With the statistical aberration of having only an 8-7record so far in the month.

oregonred
07-20-2010, 01:55 AM
Is .500 a great road record? I don't think it is, but to each his own.

Check this out... The Reds staff has the 2nd lowest road ERA in the NL this season (3.70) which bodes well the rest of the way and especially in some of the big yards in the NL West and with Stubbs manning CF.

Only the Padres with a 3.67 road ERA are better. NL average is 4.42

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 01:57 AM
Check this out... The Reds staff has the 2nd lowest road ERA in the NL this season (3.70) which bodes well the rest of the way and especially in some of the big yards in the NL West and with Stubbs manning CF.

Only the Padres with a 3.67 road ERA are better. NL average is 4.42

The pitching has been totally fine on the road. It's likely saved a lot of games. It's the bats that just die on the road.

Ron Madden
07-20-2010, 04:15 AM
Offensive Stat o' the Night (as of 7/20/10):

Jay Bruce season OPS: .760
Drew Stubbs season OPS: .756


I'm very pleased with Drew Stubbs so far and I beliveve he will put up even better numbers with more playing time.

The thing I find so hard to understad is just how quick everyone is to give up on Jay Bruce. I'm sure he will put up better numbers.

I guess all it takes is for Marty to go on one of his rants to turn the great majority of the fanbase against a young player.

GAC
07-20-2010, 05:44 AM
I'm very pleased with Drew Stubbs so far and I beliveve he will put up even better numbers with more playing time. The thing I find so hard to understad is just how quick everyone is to give up on Jay Bruce.

It's called Redzonitis, whose symptom are impatience with young ballplayers, forcing them to want to pull the trigger and quickly discard said players and try something else. Then when that player succeeds in another organization they blame the coaching staff. :p:

In the NL, our offense leads the league in a majority of the categories. We hit an "slump" right before the AS break in Philly - did the quality of the opposing pitching have anything to do with that? And then you have a game like on Sunday where poor Travis Wood got no support and we lost 1-0, and some are asking what's wrong with our offense? Of course on the day prior to Wood's loss we won 8-1. Last night we beat the Nats 7-2. I guess if we're not scoring 6-7 runs/game every night there's something wrong, regardless that we've won 3 out of the 4 games we've played coming out of the AS break.

I think waaaay too much is being made of losing 5 games over the last month 1-0. Way too much.

Chip R
07-20-2010, 10:00 AM
Is .500 a great road record? I don't think it is, but to each his own.


That's what you strive for. Win at home and play .500 on the road. We might want to look harder for things to complain about since the Reds are 10 games over .500 now. :rolleyes:

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 02:19 PM
That's what you strive for. Win at home and play .500 on the road. We might want to look harder for things to complain about since the Reds are 10 games over .500 now. :rolleyes:

I wasn't complaining about it. I just stated that I don't think .500 is a great road record. :confused:

Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 02:34 PM
I wasn't complaining about it. I just stated that I don't think .500 is a great road record. :confused:

Since when is being 2nd best in the league in a category not great?

Rojo
07-20-2010, 02:44 PM
I wasn't complaining about it. I just stated that I don't think .500 is a great road record. :confused:

And you were wrong.

I don't think anyone's "giving up" on Bruce. He's still only 23 and will scuffle at times.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 09:36 PM
Since when is being 2nd best in the league in a category not great?

"great" is not an absolute term. it's an opinion. i don't think .500 on the road is GREAT, regardless of how the rest of the league is performing.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 09:37 PM
And you were wrong.

I don't think anyone's "giving up" on Bruce. He's still only 23 and will scuffle at times.

i'm entitled to my opinion just as you are yours. thus, you are wrong.