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membengal
07-19-2010, 07:09 PM
From Fay:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/


Bailey is still a ways away obviously. Given how late it is in the season, their position in the standing and the depth of starting pitching, would the Reds consider Bailey for a relief role?

“I don’t know,” Dusty Baker said. “Right now, we’re conditioning him as a starter.”

Bailey has never relieved – except under the piggy-back system used in the minors one year – but he’s willing.

“Whatever they want me to do,” he said. “You’ve got to learn to make adjustments. I’ll do whatever they want me to.”

Just thought worth highlighting that since there seems to be a lingering perception that Bailey is still headstrong and not a team player. Sounds like he wants to do what he can to help. I like that.

fearofpopvol1
07-19-2010, 07:16 PM
Bailey could be very useful in the bullpen. His command concerns me some...but I think down the stretch, Bailey could be useful in the pen while increasing his value to the team and as a possible trade target if the Reds decide to move him. If not, they could stick him back in the rotation next year (if there is room)!

membengal
07-19-2010, 07:17 PM
I kinda look at Bailey and wonder if he might not be an in-house replacement for Cordero someday. Not sure how easy that conversion is, but it is far from unheard of, see, e.g., Papelbon...

Joseph
07-19-2010, 07:27 PM
I think Homer is unfairly labeled as 'not a team player'. He is sometimes reactionary no doubt, being upset about the DL and all, but he seems to always do whatever is asked of him. Theres a difference in not doing what is asked and not being a yes man.

membengal
07-19-2010, 07:30 PM
I think Homer is unfairly labeled as 'not a team player'. He is sometimes reactionary no doubt, being upset about the DL and all, but he seems to always do whatever is asked of him. Theres a difference in not doing what is asked and not being a yes man.

Full agreement. Kinda why I thought the above quote was worth noting.

Degenerate39
07-19-2010, 07:41 PM
Future Reds Closer. I doubt there will ever be any room for him in the rotation again. I'm sure he'll be in the bullpen when he comes back and eventually the new closer.

redsmetz
07-19-2010, 07:46 PM
I think Homer is unfairly labeled as 'not a team player'. He is sometimes reactionary no doubt, being upset about the DL and all, but he seems to always do whatever is asked of him. Theres a difference in not doing what is asked and not being a yes man.

That's my thought to. His reaction to the DL, I thought was about wanting to work through it. After he was DL'ed, he certainly seem to understand that what was best for his long-term future (and the team's), was the best approach. The last two seasons has shown a much more mature Homer Bailey which has been for the better. Along with all the other young arms, he's helping to continue the dilemma of the plethora of starters we have.

MikeS21
07-19-2010, 08:37 PM
The two biggest transitions, I would think, would be the mental aspect of developing that mental toughness as a set-up guy/closer, and also the physical grind of being able to pitch 3-4 days in a row in one inning spurts.

Question is, can Bailey adjust? I think eventually, he can develop the mental toughness.

Plus, he can probably air it out and throw 97-98 mph if he only has to go one inning a night.

Will M
07-19-2010, 08:41 PM
i have never read what Homer's exact issue/injury is. can someone fill me in? thanks.

Chip R
07-19-2010, 08:45 PM
i have never read what Homer's exact issue/injury is. can someone fill me in? thanks.

Shoulder tightness was the issue. I don't think it's been any more specific than that.

Will M
07-19-2010, 08:52 PM
Shoulder tightness was the issue. I don't think it's been any more specific than that.

thanks. thats all i ever heard as well.

Slyder
07-19-2010, 09:02 PM
Starting out in the pen could let him restretch his arm out. Then when Leake/Volquez needs shut down he could jump back into the rotation. Would make Owings a replacable arm in the pen?

Ghosts of 1990
07-19-2010, 10:03 PM
On the shelf all season with a sore shoulder. Not quite the breakout year I had hoped for.

_Sir_Charles_
07-20-2010, 12:44 PM
Future Reds Closer. I doubt there will ever be any room for him in the rotation again. I'm sure he'll be in the bullpen when he comes back and eventually the new closer.

If he performs like he did the last month and a half of last year...he's not in the rotation? If he performs like he was trending prior to the DL this year...he's not in the rotation? He's stated before that he's a slow starter, both in the season and in a game. I agree with that assessment. And it doesn't fit a relievers' mold. A relievers' got to get ready in a hurry and come in guns a'blazin'. That's not Homer.

No, I see the Reds dealing either Arroyo or Harang and sitting Leake down. Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Arroyo/Harang is what I'm thinking for the stretch. Leake in the wings along with Maloney.

TRF
07-20-2010, 03:51 PM
If he performs like he did the last month and a half of last year...he's not in the rotation? If he performs like he was trending prior to the DL this year...he's not in the rotation? He's stated before that he's a slow starter, both in the season and in a game. I agree with that assessment. And it doesn't fit a relievers' mold. A relievers' got to get ready in a hurry and come in guns a'blazin'. That's not Homer.

No, I see the Reds dealing either Arroyo or Harang and sitting Leake down. Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Arroyo/Harang is what I'm thinking for the stretch. Leake in the wings along with Maloney.

No. he's not in the rotation.

He's not better than Cueto.
He's not better than Volquez.
He's not better than Leake.
He's not better than Wood.

And one of Arroyo/Harang will be kept.

It remains to be seen whether he's better than Maloney or Chapman. He might be better than LeCure, but I see LeCure as a future long reliever anyway.

IslandRed
07-20-2010, 04:32 PM
Agree with TRF. When considering everything -- health, consistency, performance, a pennant race at hand -- then, strictly within the context of this season, I don't see Bailey pushing out anyone who's currently in the rotation ahead of him. I mean, it's not clear how they're going to shoehorn Harang back in there, and he's got to be ahead of Bailey in the pecking order.

Now, I agree with the notion of rehabbing him as if he'll start, because he may need to. Someone might get hurt, Wood may hit a rough stretch, Leake might hit an innings wall and need to be shut down. (I see a near-zero chance of any starters being dealt away, though.) Minus that, though, Bailey will probably have to work his way back via the bullpen for the rest of the season.

nemesis
07-20-2010, 04:32 PM
No. he's not in the rotation.

He's not better than Cueto.
He's not better than Volquez.
He's not better than Leake.
He's not better than Wood.

And one of Arroyo/Harang will be kept.

It remains to be seen whether he's better than Maloney or Chapman. He might be better than LeCure, but I see LeCure as a future long reliever anyway.


Wow. You really think Leake, Cueto, Arroyo, Harang and possibly Maloney has better stuff than Homer?

I agree Volquez, Chapman and possibly Wood have better stuff than Homer but When Homer is on, he is as unhittible as Volquez.

Looking at this years numbers, Homer compared to the years past, has done a 180 as in terms of pitching.

He had a rough April like all the starters. Which I attribute to all of them not getting enough work in the spring, but, he had a GB tendency of 52.4% in April. Not bad for a power pitcher. In May, 3 of his last 4 starts were Quality Starts. 1 against Milwaukee who leads the NL in HR's and second in Runs and another against St. Louis. Then the gem against Pittsburgh.

His ERA in his last 4 starts was 3.71, had a .200 BAA, 3.38 BB per 9, 6.41 K per 9 and a whopping 60% GB Rate or a 1.50 GO/FO Ratio. For Homer that shows he was keeping his Fastball ball down, using his splitter and not hanging to many curves.

He is the 3rd most talented arm on the team, hands down. Just because your frustrated that he hasn't posted sub 3 ERA's like the hype promised doesn't mean he is junk. He is still just 24. Born in 1986. Guess how many ML Starting Pitchers born in 1986 or later are putting up ERA's under 3?

Felix Hernandez, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, Yovani Gallardo. That's the list...

Homer to the Bullpen would be a further complication to his career. He is a starter. He has top end #1 starter stuff. He showed when consistently left alone in his turn in the rotation what he could do last year. He was starting to show it again this year. I don't think a move to the bullpen would mesh well with his stuff or his head.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2010, 04:45 PM
I kinda look at Bailey and wonder if he might not be an in-house replacement for Cordero someday. Not sure how easy that conversion is, but it is far from unheard of, see, e.g., Papelbon...

Too hittable IMO, I bet his H/9 are higher than your average starter. The guy ya want at the end of games has to miss bats not meet them, just my 2 cents.

As far as where he fits in the puzzle...

Arroyo
Volquez
Wood - Harang
Cueto
Leake - Bailey

If they expect to use him starting I imagine this is where he will find himself with Leake getting some BP innings and Wood down on the farm until late august or whenever the cutoff date is for playoff roster spots.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2010, 04:52 PM
Wow. You really think Leake, Cueto, Arroyo, Harang and possibly Maloney has better stuff than Homer?

I agree Volquez, Chapman and possibly Wood have better stuff than Homer but When Homer is on, he is as unhittible as Volquez.

Looking at this years numbers, Homer compared to the years past, has done a 180 as in terms of pitching.

He had a rough April like all the starters. Which I attribute to all of them not getting enough work in the spring, but, he had a GB tendency of 52.4% in April. Not bad for a power pitcher. In May, 3 of his last 4 starts were Quality Starts. 1 against Milwaukee who leads the NL in HR's and second in Runs and another against St. Louis. Then the gem against Pittsburgh.

His ERA in his last 4 starts was 3.71, had a .200 BAA, 3.38 BB per 9, 6.41 K per 9 and a whopping 60% GB Rate or a 1.50 GO/FO Ratio. For Homer that shows he was keeping his Fastball ball down, using his splitter and not hanging to many curves.

He is the 3rd most talented arm on the team, hands down. Just because your frustrated that he hasn't posted sub 3 ERA's like the hype promised doesn't mean he is junk. He is still just 24. Born in 1986. Guess how many ML Starting Pitchers born in 1986 or later are putting up ERA's under 3?

Felix Hernandez, Mat Latos, Jaime Garcia, Yovani Gallardo. That's the list...

Homer to the Bullpen would be a further complication to his career. He is a starter. He has top end #1 starter stuff. He showed when consistently left alone in his turn in the rotation what he could do last year. He was starting to show it again this year. I don't think a move to the bullpen would mesh well with his stuff or his head.

Forget the hype and look at the stuff his fastball isn't an "ACE" type FB. He might get more movement out of it if he dials it down some which would make it less hittable (of course he would still have to do a better job of locating it as well) but then throwing 91-92 isn't generally an upper echelon ace (sans sinkerballer types or guys with ridiculous secondary stuff neither of which is Homer IMO). JMO would love for someone to disprove that his FB does indeed move quite a bit.

membengal
07-20-2010, 05:06 PM
Too hittable IMO, I bet his H/9 are higher than your average starter. The guy ya want at the end of games has to miss bats not meet them, just my 2 cents.

As far as where he fits in the puzzle...

Arroyo
Volquez
Wood - Harang
Cueto
Leake - Bailey

If they expect to use him starting I imagine this is where he will find himself with Leake getting some BP innings and Wood down on the farm until late august or whenever the cutoff date is for playoff roster spots.

But would be too hittable if he were firing as hard as he can in one inning stretches? And using that split finger more?

Dunno.

Cedric
07-20-2010, 05:08 PM
Forget the hype and look at the stuff his fastball isn't an "ACE" type FB. He might get more movement out of it if he dials it down some which would make it less hittable (of course he would still have to do a better job of locating it as well) but then throwing 91-92 isn't generally an upper echelon ace (sans sinkerballer types or guys with ridiculous secondary stuff neither of which is Homer IMO). JMO would love for someone to disprove that his FB does indeed move quite a bit.

Pujols says Homer has great stuff. I'll take that..

_Sir_Charles_
07-20-2010, 05:20 PM
No. he's not in the rotation.

He's not better than Cueto.
He's not better than Volquez.
He's not better than Leake.
He's not better than Wood.

And one of Arroyo/Harang will be kept.

It remains to be seen whether he's better than Maloney or Chapman. He might be better than LeCure, but I see LeCure as a future long reliever anyway.

That's your opinion. You're stating this like it's a fact.

All 4 of those kids (5 if you include Homer) are still young and untested for the most part. Nobody knows WHAT they'll turn into. So until that happens, we're still speculating. And a good portion of speculation is based on their physical abilities. And Homers are considerably better than both Leake & Wood and easily on par with Edinson & Cueto. It's all a matter of how and when (and IF) they put it together at the big league level. They've all had stints of absolutely outstanding pitching. But they've also had stretches where they stunk up the joint (Wood & Leake haven't yet, but their chances are very limited). At their best, Edinson/Cueto/Bailey are all similar IMO with Leake & Wood a notch below. But that's at their BEST. We won't get their best very often.

So if you're basing your opinion on the major league stats of these pitchers...the whole thing is unfair to Homer due to him being unfairly rushed to the bigs his first 2 years. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, just pointing out the facts. He's a slow starter and he got rushed to the bigs before he was even remotely ready. And many here are dismissing him MUCH too easily.

_Sir_Charles_
07-20-2010, 05:23 PM
Homer to the Bullpen would be a further complication to his career. He is a starter. He has top end #1 starter stuff. He showed when consistently left alone in his turn in the rotation what he could do last year. He was starting to show it again this year. I don't think a move to the bullpen would mesh well with his stuff or his head.

This

flyer85
07-20-2010, 05:24 PM
If the starters are pitching well then put him in the pen. He could turn into a lights out reliever for the stretch, he certainly has the raw stuff to be dominant at the back end of a bullpen. Seems to me to be a better solution than trading for an expensive closer/setup type that is having an OK (or worse ) year.

He can always go back to starting next year if that is what is best for the team.

membengal
07-20-2010, 05:29 PM
Why should a move to the pen, and eventually the back of the pen, mess with Homer's head? He's already said he wants to do anything he can to help the team win, that's good, right?

And he can make plenty of money as a closer someday, if he can pull that transition off. And, I think (but can't know) that if he can load up his stuff for one inning stretches, mid-to-high 90s fastballs and splitters is a rather effective repetoire.

Next season as understudy to Coco, and then takes over in 2012 for a fraction of the cost? Why not?

Again, it's not unheard of for high draft choices to make that kind of move. See Papelbon, for example.

membengal
07-20-2010, 05:30 PM
If the starters are pitching well then put him in the pen. He could turn into a lights out reliever for the stretch, he certainly has the raw stuff to be dominant at the back end of a bullpen. Seems to me to be a better solution than trading for an expensive closer/setup type that is having an OK (or worse ) year.

He can always go back to starting next year if that is what is best for the team.

Full agreement with Flyer on this.

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2010, 05:32 PM
Pujols says Homer has great stuff. I'll take that..

Well he does have superman's kryptonite, that splitty is the one pitch Albert hasn't mastered in fact it is indeed like kryptonite to him. And Homer's splitter is fairly sick but uses it rarely (as he should).


So anyway, this is what the statistical revolution has wrought: The ability to value every pitch thrown from the perspective of the pitcher and batter. A ball in a certain count has value, as does a strike and a hit and so on. Using data supplied from MLB.com’s incredible Pitch-f/x system – which records the velocity and break of every pitch and uses an algorithm to compute the type of pitch – FanGraphs breaks down the effectiveness of the pitcher and hitter on every pitch.

17) More pitchers need to learn the split-fingered fastball so they can get Pujols out.

Superman is fallible after all. While only 2.6 percent of the pitches he sees are splitters, Pujols can’t hit them. For the last four years, he has been below average with them, and this year could be the worst: 4.89 runs below per 100 seen. Scouts have this one pegged: Only seven players have faced a higher percentage of splitters.

This was wrote last August.

Yahoo Link (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-fangraphs080509)

Mario-Rijo
07-20-2010, 05:34 PM
But would be too hittable if he were firing as hard as he can in one inning stretches? And using that split finger more?

Dunno.

Fair points, tough to say until it happens.

TRF
07-20-2010, 06:54 PM
That's your opinion. You're stating this like it's a fact.

All 4 of those kids (5 if you include Homer) are still young and untested for the most part. Nobody knows WHAT they'll turn into. So until that happens, we're still speculating. And a good portion of speculation is based on their physical abilities. And Homers are considerably better than both Leake & Wood and easily on par with Edinson & Cueto. It's all a matter of how and when (and IF) they put it together at the big league level. They've all had stints of absolutely outstanding pitching. But they've also had stretches where they stunk up the joint (Wood & Leake haven't yet, but their chances are very limited). At their best, Edinson/Cueto/Bailey are all similar IMO with Leake & Wood a notch below. But that's at their BEST. We won't get their best very often.

So if you're basing your opinion on the major league stats of these pitchers...the whole thing is unfair to Homer due to him being unfairly rushed to the bigs his first 2 years. I'm not trying to make excuses for him, just pointing out the facts. He's a slow starter and he got rushed to the bigs before he was even remotely ready. And many here are dismissing him MUCH too easily.

It's really not an opinion. to date, Cueto is a better pitcher. period. Volquez has had far more success. he's a better pitcher than Homer. period. Homer hasn't sniffed the success Leake has had so far. Talk the end of 2009 in a meaningless stretch all you want, Leake has been doing it while the Reds have been in a season long dogfight for first place. I don't think he can sustain it, and I think he's wearing down, but Leake's short career so far has been better and more meaningful than the entirety of Homer's MLB career.

With Wood, I'm looking at the minor's mostly. And Homer never had a season like Travis Wood did last year. And he's pretty much hit the ground running this year too.

so to sum up. Ceto and Volquez? vastly better. not even an argument. Leake? better pitcher right now. Wood? I wouldn't trade Wood for two Homer Bailey's.

I'd like to see one healthy productive season from Homer. His next one will be his first.

nemesis
07-20-2010, 10:50 PM
Why should a move to the pen, and eventually the back of the pen, mess with Homer's head? He's already said he wants to do anything he can to help the team win, that's good, right?

He'd say he'd eat horse manure if it helped them team to keep that service time a ticking and that nice bi-weekly check coming in.

Homer has a slow starting arm. Always has. He gets tougher as most games progress. He has been trying to work out the kinks for a little over a year and a half now. His off day routines, his side sessions, become more of a student of the game, then all of a sudden he has to come back from an injury and completely retool his throwing schedule and how he pitches. Not a good idea. Homer has proven one thing for certain, his mentality can be messed up easily. Moving him to the pen would be a total boom or make him a complete bust. I'd rather side on that of caution and keep him in the Minors on rehab until September 1 as a starter and have him replace Leake.

membengal
07-20-2010, 11:04 PM
Since Homer looks to have no home in this rotation, I am happy to shoot for "boom" with a move to the pen.

My wondering had more to do with 2011 for Homer and the pen, and a thought that he might turn into a cheap in-house replacement for Coco after next season if a move to the pen is accomplished.

I don't think he offers a ton of help for this team in 2010 at this point. At least not help they can count on.

IslandRed
07-20-2010, 11:58 PM
Moving him to the pen would be a total boom or make him a complete bust. I'd rather side on that of caution and keep him in the Minors on rehab until September 1 as a starter and have him replace Leake.

To me, the side of caution is to manage Leake's innings as they go along so he doesn't have to be shut down in September.

I still think Bailey will be a good pitcher. But, of the seven rotation guys in the discussion, I have to admit Bailey's the guy I least want to see taking the ball in a must-win September game. This year.

Spitball
07-21-2010, 12:08 AM
If Bailey can control his front end mechanics, he can be a number two starter on the Reds. A lot was made of the split finger being a large part of his improvement late last year, but I think it was more about his mechanical adjustments. In 2007 and 2008, he was flying open as badly as any professional pitcher I've seen. Late in 2009, he was pulling his glove hand into his chest on delivery and pitching as well as could be expected. Also, his torso/hip/front leg action were more coordinated. His velocity and command were returning and developing.

I have always felt Bailey was overhyped but do believe he can continue to improve if he cooperates with the coaching. From what I've seen, his mechanical approach prior to late 2009 had to be due to stubburness. No one would have encouraged him to pitch with that approach.

GAC
07-21-2010, 08:33 AM
Personally, I don't think Homer Bailey is long for this organization. Patience is wearing thin, IMO, on this kid. Yeah, I know, he's only 23, but the Reds do have other options, and some of them are passing/out-performing Homer. He has his "moments", but he struggles with consistency and can't seem to put it all together. He had a great tail-end of the season last year, but instead of building on that he's regressed. Why?

Chip R
07-21-2010, 10:23 AM
Personally, I don't think Homer Bailey is long for this organization. Patience is wearing thin, IMO, on this kid. Yeah, I know, he's only 23, but the Reds do have other options, and some of them are passing/out-performing Homer. He has his "moments", but he struggles with consistency and can't seem to put it all together. He had a great tail-end of the season last year, but instead of building on that he's regressed. Why?


Perhaps because of injury?

The guy hasn't pitched since May. Was he a world-beater up to that point? Of course not but there were times he pitched very well and the times he didn't weren't that bad. It's like everyone rags on Cueto while he's pitching but at the end of the game they say, "Damn, he pitched a great game."

I also remember earlier in the year when the Giants were in town. They had some pretty good young pitchers going against us but they too struggled for a while. We live in a world where we expect Strasburg/Leake like success out of the gate.

membengal
07-21-2010, 10:35 AM
Personally, I don't think Homer Bailey is long for this organization. Patience is wearing thin, IMO, on this kid. Yeah, I know, he's only 23, but the Reds do have other options, and some of them are passing/out-performing Homer. He has his "moments", but he struggles with consistency and can't seem to put it all together. He had a great tail-end of the season last year, but instead of building on that he's regressed. Why?

Tend to agree, but that's why I am suggesting pen and seeing if he can eventually become a closer rather than just cast him aside. He still has very plus stuff, and this team could use that at the back of a game, if he can make that kind of transition.

Some players rise to the challenge of bullpen/closing work. You won't know with him until you try it.

IF it were to work, that would be a great in-house cost-effective option at the end of games to replace Coco at the end of next year.

Worth a shot, in my estimation.

Spitball
07-21-2010, 01:37 PM
... He has his "moments", but he struggles with consistency and can't seem to put it all together.

There have not been many consistent pitchers who have let their glove arms swing wildly down and behind during delivery. I think the kid is now learning and maturing.



He had a great tail-end of the season last year, but instead of building on that he's regressed. Why?

At the end of 2009, he was pulling his glove into his chest on delivery and standing taller on delivery. His poor start this year was likely due to an injury he tried to pitch through.

edabbs44
07-21-2010, 02:24 PM
Tend to agree, but that's why I am suggesting pen and seeing if he can eventually become a closer rather than just cast him aside. He still has very plus stuff, and this team could use that at the back of a game, if he can make that kind of transition.

Some players rise to the challenge of bullpen/closing work. You won't know with him until you try it.

IF it were to work, that would be a great in-house cost-effective option at the end of games to replace Coco at the end of next year.

Worth a shot, in my estimation.

Agree, there is no need to force a move back into the rotation. Put him in the pen and let him air it out. Many "failed" starters turn into great relievers. If healthy, this is a perfect time to see what's what with this.

mth123
07-21-2010, 08:54 PM
There have not been many consistent pitchers who have let their glove arms swing wildly down and behind during delivery. I think the kid is now learning and maturing.




At the end of 2009, he was pulling his glove into his chest on delivery and standing taller on delivery. His poor start this year was likely due to an injury he tried to pitch through.

Absolutely. Big inning jump in 2009 has reared its ugly head IMO.

Be careful with Leake.

Spitball
07-21-2010, 09:44 PM
Absolutely. Big inning jump in 2009 has reared its ugly head IMO.

Be careful with Leake.

Right...It is better to be safe than to be sorry with young, talented arms.

GAC
07-22-2010, 06:05 AM
pretty good young pitchers going against us but they too struggled for a while. We live in a world where we expect Strasburg/Leake like success out of the gate.

I don't expect that at all. And certainly don't hold the injury against him. When I look at some of the younger pitchers who are starting to "exert" themselves (for lack of a better word), Cueto maturing, the return of Volquez, and Chapman in the wings, then Homer I think realizes that he needs to step it up once he returns from this injury or else. I'm not advocating that he should be thrown to the wayside, but only that frustration has to be setting in to some degree within this FO with him.

Will M
07-25-2010, 07:29 AM
Pitches Monday for Dayton: http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/cincinnati-reds/bailey-having-fun-back-in-dayton-828510.html?cxtype=ynews_rss

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:17 PM
Perhaps because of injury?

The guy hasn't pitched since May. Was he a world-beater up to that point? Of course not but there were times he pitched very well and the times he didn't weren't that bad. It's like everyone rags on Cueto while he's pitching but at the end of the game they say, "Damn, he pitched a great game."

I also remember earlier in the year when the Giants were in town. They had some pretty good young pitchers going against us but they too struggled for a while. We live in a world where we expect Strasburg/Leake like success out of the gate.

This.

Homer will be fine. He's still very young (24...same as Cueto, only a year older than Wood. Chapman & Leake 22), people here tend to forget how young this kid still is. How you can expect him to perform like a top of the rotation arm at this point in his young career is beyond me. What you look for is maturity and progress. Other than the injury, I think we've seen exactly that these past 2 seasons. Considerably.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2010, 07:33 PM
Homer Bailey to make rehab start tomorrow in Dayton.


Plans call for Bailey to throw about 70 pitches, then take his act to Louisville for two more starts, which, if all goes well, would then put him in position to help the Reds down the stretch.


Bailey threw in the bullpen Friday with no adverse effects, and he made some friends among his temporary teammates and coaches by providing Subway party trays for their pregame enjoyment.

“It’s always appreciated when you can have good food around here,” said outfielder Andrew Means, speaking for a team more accustomed to peanut butter-and-jelly sandwiches.

Today on the menu, at Bailey’s expense, is a postgame spread of pizza and ribs. Monday, after Bailey pitches, the Dragons — who had not won a home game since June 28 going into Saturday’s play — will have steak waiting for them.


http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/dayton-dragons/bailey-having-fun-back-in-dayton-828510.html

nemesis
07-25-2010, 08:06 PM
Homer Bailey to make rehab start tomorrow in Dayton.





http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/dayton-dragons/bailey-having-fun-back-in-dayton-828510.html


Going all out for some guys he knows passingly from Spring Training shows me alot in terms of character development from Homer. That is a Class A act thing to do for those players.

11larkin11
07-25-2010, 08:18 PM
Going all out for some guys he knows passingly from Spring Training shows me alot in terms of character development from Homer. That is a Class A act thing to do for those players.

http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums/i-see-what-you-did-there/1/i_see_what_you_did_there.jpg

Ghosts of 1990
07-25-2010, 08:30 PM
I like Homer Bailey more and more every time I hear a new story about him. Seems like he is a good dude that does things without trying to grab headlines or gain praise from doing it.

Redsfan320
07-25-2010, 08:31 PM
I've never understood why a team would have an MLB player rehab at a level lower than AAA?

320

nemesis
07-25-2010, 08:33 PM
http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums/i-see-what-you-did-there/1/i_see_what_you_did_there.jpg

:beerme: :thumbup:

nemesis
07-25-2010, 08:36 PM
I've never understood why a team would have an MLB player rehab at a level lower than AAA?

320

Low stress innings. Homer probably won't be allowed to throw much more than his Fastball and Curve. Probably no splitters at all. In AAA, players being so developed and patient, might just hammer him and he wouldn't get to 70 pitches. In class A they'll be lucky to get a couple hits giving him a better shot at maxing out his pitch count.

mth123
07-25-2010, 08:41 PM
I've never understood why a team would have an MLB player rehab at a level lower than AAA?

320

Louisville is on the road. Dayton's proximity allows team medical and front office types to easily monitor him. I'm sure that watching how Homer responds to live action, getting up and down between innings and having live hitters with an ump is more important than interepretting the results versus the competition right now.

OnBaseMachine
08-06-2010, 02:33 AM
Homer made his third rehab start tonight and second with Louisville. His line: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, 7 GO/4 FO, 102 pitches/66 strikes.

Quotes from the Louisville Courier-Journal:


“After this one I feel pretty good. Now it's just a matter of what the Reds want to do. The velocity is there. I don't feel any pain. My location is pretty right on the spot. Right now it's waiting to see what they want to do.”

“The No.1 thing is that he looks healthy, he's free and easy,” manager Rick Sweet said. “From the first pitch to the last pitch he threw, the velocity stayed strong. He commanded all of his pitches. It was a very good ballgame.”


http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100805/SPORTS07/308050088/1036/SPORTS07/Homer+Bailey+looks+sharp+as+Bats+blank+Tides+6-0

Might we see Bailey in Cincinnati sometime soon?

WebScorpion
08-06-2010, 05:52 AM
Homer made his third rehab start tonight and second with Louisville. His line: 7 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, 7 GO/4 FO, 102 pitches/66 strikes.


The 9Ks with 0 BBs indicates that Homer is ready. Ideally, we'd just swap him with Volquez, but MLB is never an ideal world so that's impossible since Volquez has no minor league options left. Homer is out of options too, so he can't just stay in the minors either. Sending Leake down would burn an option year for him too...Wood's option has already been exercised this year, so sending him down is a possibility although not really in the best interest of the team. Quite a conundrum. In addition to this, Harang should be ready soon. It will be interesting to see what they do. I wonder if Walt is trying to trade two pitchers (Harang and Arroyo are the only ones I'd see clearing waivers) for some left field help...or maybe even just for prospects. :dunno:

LoganBuck
08-06-2010, 08:05 AM
The 9Ks with 0 BBs indicates that Homer is ready. Ideally, we'd just swap him with Volquez, but MLB is never an ideal world so that's impossible since Volquez has no minor league options left. Homer is out of options too, so he can't just stay in the minors either. Sending Leake down would burn an option year for him too...Wood's option has already been exercised this year, so sending him down is a possibility although not really in the best interest of the team. Quite a conundrum. In addition to this, Harang should be ready soon. It will be interesting to see what they do. I wonder if Walt is trying to trade two pitchers (Harang and Arroyo are the only ones I'd see clearing waivers) for some left field help...or maybe even just for prospects. :dunno:

Harang has thrown a one bullpen session since July 5. He has to go out on a rehab start first. I noticed they dated his DL stint, July 1. I suspect he goes on the 60 man DL, to get Dickerson on the roster, and then the Reds find a way to bring Harang back August 31.

I swap Homer and Leake.

Tornon
08-06-2010, 09:27 AM
Sending Leake down would burn an option year for him too

Hopefully his results this year would mean that wouldn't really be an issue in coming years. I think we could burn an option on him if we had to

mth123
08-06-2010, 09:53 AM
Harang has thrown a one bullpen session since July 5. He has to go out on a rehab start first. I noticed they dated his DL stint, July 1. I suspect he goes on the 60 man DL, to get Dickerson on the roster, and then the Reds find a way to bring Harang back August 31.

I swap Homer and Leake.

I thought this too, but Texasdave in the minor league forum posted something. The rules state you can only back date 10 days and if you go on Aug 1 or later you're done for the year. Not sure if you're already on the DL if you can just transfer with the original dates to get around this.

Leake should make his next start and Homer should probably start the day after. I'd use Leake's start to help judge what to do. Another poor one, and I'd option him. If everyone is doing well, I'd consider skipping Cueto for a turn to keep him stronger for Sept and Oct. I'm not a fan of the 6 man rotation, but I might consider it.

membengal
08-06-2010, 09:57 AM
Hopefully his results this year would mean that wouldn't really be an issue in coming years. I think we could burn an option on him if we had to

Indeed. Hard to see worries over "burning option years" cuffing the Reds with respect to Leake.

Chip R
08-06-2010, 10:14 AM
Wood's option has already been exercised this year, so sending him down is a possibility although not really in the best interest of the team.

Wood can be sent down and called back up as many times as the Reds feel necessary. Sending him down in ST used that option year so it's for the entire season. When people talk about how many options a player has they are really talking about how many option years they have. Hope that clears things up. :)

Hoosier Red
08-06-2010, 10:18 AM
Wood can be sent down and called back up as many times as the Reds feel necessary. Sending him down in ST used that option year so it's for the entire season. When people talk about how many options a player has they are really talking about how many option years they have. Hope that clears things up. :)

Yeah, but I think WebScorpion was saying you can send him down without burning an option, but it's not in the best interest of the team because he's been one of the most effective starters.

I'd have Leake pitch one more, send him down and start limiting his innings in AAA.

Edd Roush
08-06-2010, 11:07 AM
Yeah, but I think WebScorpion was saying you can send him down without burning an option, but it's not in the best interest of the team because he's been one of the most effective starters.

I'd have Leake pitch one more, send him down and start limiting his innings in AAA.

I wish I was as patient as you are in a pennant race. Leake has been languishing after his first time through the league. Right now, I think Homer gives the Reds a better chance to win next Tuesday against the Cardinals so with that in mind, I demote Leake and bring up Bailey.

Ghosts of 1990
08-06-2010, 11:12 AM
I'm ready to see Leake in the bullpen or out of the rotation in some form and see if we can get late 2009 Homer back in. That would be an epic shot in the arm for us right now.

Hoosier Red
08-06-2010, 11:14 AM
I wish I was as patient as you are in a pennant race. Leake has been languishing after his first time through the league. Right now, I think Homer gives the Reds a better chance to win next Tuesday against the Cardinals so with that in mind, I demote Leake and bring up Bailey.

Languishing's a bit strong, but you're right he certainly hasn't been as effective. It's been more one game on, one game off, one game on, two games off.
I'd have no problem with sending him down ahead of Homer coming up I agree with mth. while not a fan of the "6 man rotation" I see a lot of benefit to sneaking an extra starter in every once in a while to add to the rest as we pull into the final month. Even though it's against the Cardinals, every game counts, and I think the combination of Mike Leake on Tuesday and Johnny Cueto at the end of September being given an extra day or two of rest versus Mike Leake being sent down right away and Cueto not getting that rest.

Edd Roush
08-06-2010, 11:24 AM
Languishing's a bit strong, but you're right he certainly hasn't been as effective. It's been more one game on, one game off, one game on, two games off.
I'd have no problem with sending him down ahead of Homer coming up I agree with mth. while not a fan of the "6 man rotation" I see a lot of benefit to sneaking an extra starter in every once in a while to add to the rest as we pull into the final month. Even though it's against the Cardinals, every game counts, and I think the combination of Mike Leake on Tuesday and Johnny Cueto at the end of September being given an extra day or two of rest versus Mike Leake being sent down right away and Cueto not getting that rest.

I would just hate to keep an extra man in the rotation when we have two guys in the AAA bullpen ready to contribute right now.

I think DLing Springer sending down Leake and Stubbs and calling up Chapman, Dickerson and Bailey is what I would do today. Actually I might call up Burton today in Baileys spot and then send him down on Tuesday when Bailey is ready to pitch so the Reds have as many live arms as possible in the pen.

Scrap Irony
08-06-2010, 12:28 PM
DL Springer, if needed. If not, send down Bray.

Send down Stubbs.

Send down Leake.

Bring up Chapman, Bailey, and Dickerson.

If Volquez struggles in his next start, Leake comes up for his spot, with Edinson going to the pen. Chapman becomes the LH K guy pitching against Card LHs (and a possible match-up in a high leverage situation against a top bat, lik Pujols or Holliday). Dickerson, Nix, Gomes, and Bruce split time according to who's hot, with Heisey playing CF until he cools down. Ride the hot hands, hoping you can cobble together an OF that's more productive than it has been for the past two months. Bailey becomes the fourth starter, with the hope he can recapture his 2009 effectiveness.

TRF
08-06-2010, 01:31 PM
I'd probably give Homer another AAA start. But I wouldn't object to him replacing Leake in the rotation. Option Leake, and make him inactive for a week.

Last night was Homer's 2nd best outing this year. completely dominant, but against AAA hitters. He might be ready right now, but he has to know there is no room currently for him in the rotation as it stands. And Wood has a stranglehold on his position IMO. That leaves Volquez or Leake. The safe bet is to option Leake.

Brutus
08-06-2010, 03:04 PM
I thought this too, but Texasdave in the minor league forum posted something. The rules state you can only back date 10 days and if you go on Aug 1 or later you're done for the year. Not sure if you're already on the DL if you can just transfer with the original dates to get around this.

Leake should make his next start and Homer should probably start the day after. I'd use Leake's start to help judge what to do. Another poor one, and I'd option him. If everyone is doing well, I'd consider skipping Cueto for a turn to keep him stronger for Sept and Oct. I'm not a fan of the 6 man rotation, but I might consider it.

This is mistaken. You can transfer someone to the 60-day DL and retain the original date. In other words, Harang could be moved to the DL effective July 1 and still be eligible to come off at the end of August. If you move someone to the 60-day DL, it does not change the effective date for the eligibility.

LoganBuck
08-06-2010, 04:08 PM
This is mistaken. You can transfer someone to the 60-day DL and retain the original date. In other words, Harang could be moved to the DL effective July 1 and still be eligible to come off at the end of August. If you move someone to the 60-day DL, it does not change the effective date for the eligibility.

I did some digging on the rule, and I found the August 1 deadline, but nothing about transferring a player from the 15 to the 60 day DL, after August 1. The way I read that was for players with new injuries. I am sure there is an answer somewhere.

There is a difference between being placed on the 60 Day DL, and being transferred to it, but I can't find the official answer.

Brutus
08-06-2010, 04:42 PM
I did some digging on the rule, and I found the August 1 deadline, but nothing about transferring a player from the 15 to the 60 day DL, after August 1. The way I read that was for players with new injuries. I am sure there is an answer somewhere.

There is a difference between being placed on the 60 Day DL, and being transferred to it, but I can't find the official answer.

From Maury Brown's Biz of Baseball Glossary:


"A player may be transferred from the 15-day list to the 60-day list, but the opposite is not permitted. If a player is transferred, his time on the 15-day list is credited toward the minimum stay on the 60-day list."

The August 1 deadline is only for players that are first being placed on the DL. Anyone being transferred there from the 15-day DL does not apply to that rule.

LoganBuck
08-07-2010, 02:12 AM
From Maury Brown's Biz of Baseball Glossary:


"A player may be transferred from the 15-day list to the 60-day list, but the opposite is not permitted. If a player is transferred, his time on the 15-day list is credited toward the minimum stay on the 60-day list."

The August 1 deadline is only for players that are first being placed on the DL. Anyone being transferred there from the 15-day DL does not apply to that rule.

Cool.

OnBaseMachine
08-10-2010, 12:49 PM
FWIW, Homer Bailey was supposed to make another rehab start tonight for Louisville but he's no longer listed as the starter. Ben Jukich is now listed as tonight's starter.

Caveat Emperor
08-10-2010, 12:51 PM
FWIW, Homer Bailey was supposed to make another rehab start tonight for Louisville but he's no longer listed as the starter. Ben Jukich is now listed as tonight's starter.

The plan, is as I'm sure the plan has been all along, that Bailey will take Leake's spot in the rotation.

LoganBuck
08-10-2010, 01:24 PM
The plan, is as I'm sure the plan has been all along, that Bailey will take Leake's spot in the rotation.

My guess is he takes the ball Friday versus the Marlins. Gives Volquez an extra day.

kaldaniels
08-12-2010, 01:40 AM
So is Homer going to the bullpen when he comes up I-71...thats what the sportsticker on espn or mlb network implied yesterday....gosh I hope not.

Cedric
08-12-2010, 01:47 AM
So is Homer going to the bullpen when he comes up I-71...thats what the sportsticker on espn or mlb network implied yesterday....gosh I hope not.

Sure looks like it.

And a lot of people were downright rude because some of us had legitimate questions about these choices.

reds44
08-12-2010, 01:48 AM
So we don't have room in the pen for Chapman but we're moving Homer to the pen?

How does that make sense?

Slyder
08-12-2010, 01:48 AM
So is Homer going to the bullpen when he comes up I-71...thats what the sportsticker on espn or mlb network implied yesterday....gosh I hope not.

And no "dl" trip for Leake, while Volquez continues to "work out the kinks", and Wood is at AAA? *sigh*

reds44
08-12-2010, 01:48 AM
And no "dl" trip for Leake, while Volquez continues to "work out the kinks", and Wood is at AAA? *sigh*
Wood will be back up in a week.
Volquez is fine.

Leake, fair enough.

Cedric
08-12-2010, 01:52 AM
Mike Leake still making starts at the major league level is beyond weird at this point. You have multiple options that are seemingly better at this point and you need to limit his innings fast.

What exactly is the reasoning for the holdup here? Mike Leake taking the ball for the Reds 3 times before Travis Wood does again is just plain dumb.

I have no other words for it.

membengal
08-12-2010, 08:26 AM
Mike Leake still making starts at the major league level is beyond weird at this point. You have multiple options that are seemingly better at this point and you need to limit his innings fast.

What exactly is the reasoning for the holdup here? Mike Leake taking the ball for the Reds 3 times before Travis Wood does again is just plain dumb.

I have no other words for it.

Indeed.

And wait until Wood takes the ball at AAA and burns seven innings there.

cumberlandreds
08-12-2010, 08:52 AM
To me the Reds are just doing some very strange things with their pitching. It's like they have all these starters and they just don't know what to do with them. So they start experimenting very late in the season. Just very strange to me. :confused:

nemesis
08-12-2010, 10:46 AM
It's seems to me the Jocketty has more faith in the horses that got him here than the ones getting him there. Staying loyal to at least most of the original starting 5. I really really don't like Homer to the Bullpen at all. I am all in favor of turning Leake into a long guy or a set up guy. Keeps him around and keeps his innings down. Homer on the other hand has innings to burn.

OnBaseMachine
08-12-2010, 01:43 PM
I'm a big Mike Leake fan, I think he's got a very bright future ahead of him but I think it's becoming quite clear that he's hit a wall this season. He's not giving the team a great chance of winning right now. I'd like to see him shifted the the bullpen for the rest of the season and replaced in the rotation by Homer Bailey.

Hoosier Red
08-12-2010, 02:14 PM
So is Homer going to the bullpen when he comes up I-71...thats what the sportsticker on espn or mlb network implied yesterday....gosh I hope not.

I'm still not sure. There's as good of a chance that whoever wrote the ticker entry saw that Homer was supposed to come back soon(his rehab stint has to be over soon I imagine) and saw that his last appearance was in the bullpen. Admittedly Jocketty also said they wanted to see how he could work out of the pen, but I don't think anyone has said, "When Homer comes up on Friday or Saturday, it will be in the bullpen."

Of course I could be wrong. I've been operating under the assumption that the Reds FO knows what they're doing. If Homer comes up as a reliever and Leake takes his normal turn on Saturday, that may change my thinking.

Homer Bailey
08-12-2010, 02:26 PM
Put me in the rotation.

edabbs44
08-12-2010, 03:02 PM
Put me in the rotation.

I'm kind of scared to see what you would do in a playoff race. My nerves aren't able to handle one of your blowouts.

Hoosier Red
08-12-2010, 03:34 PM
If I had to guess, the Reds will go

Friday: Volquez(1)
Saturday: Leake(2)
Sunday: Bailey(3) Leake optioned to open up room for Bailey
Tuesday: Arroyo(4)
Wednesday: Volquez(5)
Thursday: Wood(6) Fisher optioned to bring up Wood
Friday: Bailey(7)
Saturday: Cueto off suspension

Slyder
08-12-2010, 03:36 PM
If I had to guess, the Reds will go

Friday: Volquez(1)
Saturday: Leake(2)
Sunday: Bailey(3) Leake optioned to open up room for Bailey
Tuesday: Arroyo(4)
Wednesday: Volquez(5)
Thursday: Wood(6) Fisher optioned to bring up Wood
Friday: Bailey(7)
Saturday: Cueto off suspension

I still would "dl" Leake for Wood. Leake doesnt give us a chance to win with how he's been pitching. Let him rest save what little innings he has left for September in the pen.

Leake would qualify for return August 25, let him help Louisville on rehab use this two weeks to decide if he is "playoff" roster if not recall him whenever Louisville's season ends.

NDRed
08-12-2010, 04:02 PM
It would be interesting to see how the strategy of skipping starts affects pitchers. In hindsight it may have been better to just run Leake out there every 5th day and then shut him down when the magical number of innings was reached.

He certinly hasnot been the same since the strategy of skipping starts was employed. Did he hit a wall or did that screw him up?

mth123
08-12-2010, 09:18 PM
I still would "dl" Leake for Wood. Leake doesnt give us a chance to win with how he's been pitching. Let him rest save what little innings he has left for September in the pen.

Leake would qualify for return August 25, let him help Louisville on rehab use this two weeks to decide if he is "playoff" roster if not recall him whenever Louisville's season ends.

I'd option him to push free agency back a year. His June to now performance justifies it.

RedLegSuperStar
08-12-2010, 11:07 PM
Leake isn't going to be much of a contributor come September. He is on a tight watch with innings and you have to think playoffs play a part in that.

On the rotation.. Cueto will appeal his suspension and make his next start. Bailey will start on Saturday. The Reds will probably have Harang make 2 starts in Louisville.. Maybe 3. All depends on how he pitches. Maybe the best thing would to place Leake on the DL with some type of arm fatigue or tightness. Wood definatley did not pitch himself out of the rotation.

Possible demotions:

Jordan Smith
Bill Bray

Possible DL Stint:

Mike Leake

Keep in mind this team needs to bring up Aroldis Chapman. They went on record as saying they want him to make his debut at home and not on the road. What is the fate of these pitchers when time comes to promote when others are preforming at a high level aswell?

mth123
08-15-2010, 06:43 AM
Indeed.

And wait until Wood takes the ball at AAA and burns seven innings there.

Wood 2 IP, 3H, 1 BB, 2K, 42 pitches 29 striles.

10 Days go by and he throws 42 pitches before his next start. I think it was an excellent move to recharge him until the end of the year.

Sending Wood down was the right move IMO. The team is trying to do the right thing with these young arms. They screwed up last year and pushed Bailey too far and this year he was awful at the start and has missed almost 3 months. I'm glad they seem to have managing the workload in mind this year.

membengal
08-15-2010, 08:04 AM
mth, I was going to start a seperate thread to ackowledge that, but since you brought this up, kudos here to the Reds. Glad to see them do the right thing if they were going to send Wood out.

I was wrong about their approach, and glad to be wrong.

Tornon
08-15-2010, 11:31 AM
Have we heard a roster move concerning Bailey's return today?