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nemesis
07-20-2010, 05:43 AM
I know there is a prospect profile in the Forum somewhere but I wanted to open a fresh debate about his future value to the Reds.

He is a heavily debated player in the Minors (who isn't?) that some feel is a legit prospect, while others feel he isn't to much to get excited about. (once again par for the course)

So I did what I always do and decided to research it and put the numbers on the table in comparison to other teams SS prospects.

So I decided to go with equal players at the same level. Born in 1985 or later, in AAA for less than 2 full years and have at least half their seasons AB's in AAA. International League players only since the PCL is a way bit hitter friendly.

Let's start with Cozart...

Zack Cozart (24) Cincinnati:
.330/.450/.780 in 378 AB's
9 Errors in 95 Games, 22 SB's in 25 Attempts - 88%
16.8% K Rate
8.0% BB Rate

__________________________________________________ _________________________

Argenis Diaz (23) Pittsburgh:

.299/.284/.583 in 243 AB's
6 Errors in 71 Games, 3 SB's in 4 Attempts - 75%
20.5% K Rate
6.2% BB Rate

Never had a SLG% over .382 or an OBP over .342 for a season.


Brian Bocock (25) Philadelphia:

.254/.279/.533 in 240 AB's
7 Errors in 74 Games, 4 SB's in 7 Attempts - 57%
22.5% K Rate
7.0% BB Rate

Career high OPS is .656 in 2007 / Played in the Majors in 2008 with a .414 OPS


Eduardo Nunez (23) NY Yankees:

.360/.409/.769
13 Errors in 93 Games, 18 SB in 21 Attemps - 86%
14.2% K Rate
6.9% BB Rate

Lacks power. Never walked more than 32 times in any full season league.


So what does this show us. Among the players that are his equal...

He has the best BB rate. Second lowest K rate. Highest SLG%. 2nd highest OBP. Highest OPS. Most SB's, Highest SB success rate, Most HR's, Most RBI's, Commits one error every 10.6 games. (Cabrera 9.4 with less range)

He leads all AAA Shortstops (INT/PCL) - (All Age Ranges and experience) in HR's, SB's, Runs, XBH's and second in Hits and RBI's. He does this in a park that is termed pitcher friendly and can sap RHH power. (see Stubbs, Drew)

So what in all this doesn't make him a top flight SS prospect?

I see the term "overvalue" our own prospects alot. I'd like to think most of the prospects are undervalued.

Votto is a home grown MVP Candidate out OPSing Albert Pujols. Bruce and Stubbs are 25 and under OF's with less than 2 years AB's, Plus Gloves, Range and Arms. Both are Sporting over a .750 OPS and over a 100+ OPS+. Cueto a #3 starter, under 25 with a 123 ERA+, Travis Wood a #5 starter in 4 starts has a ERA+ of 210, Mike Leake a #4 starter has a ERA+ of 119 and never been in the minors, Chris Heisey has a OPS+ over a 100. Ondrusek with a ERA+ of 101 and a ERA of 0.96 in his last 20 games since being called back up. Jordan Smith hasn't even been to AAA and has an ERA+ of 119. Not to mention a DL'd Bailey

We have Cozart, Chapman, Mesoraco, Sappelt, Perez, Francisco, Alonso, Frazier, Valakia, Dorn, LeCure, Klinker, Valiquette, Joseph, Del Rosario all more than likely capable major leaguers. All home grown. Name one other team in baseball that can brag this.

All these players, less Votto, are going to be under 26 at the start of next year and Votto will only be 27.


Older guys like Hanigan 30 (145 OPS+), Janish, 27 (129 OPS+), Dickerson 28 (97 OPS+ in 2009) all came from the system as well. All 3 are among the elite when it comes to being defenders on the field. All 3 are GG capable.


That's 13 players, 11 on the active roster that are home developed, above average, ML players. So chances are, that Cozart, being developed in the same system, is being undervalued. He plays a plus glove and range with an average accurate arm. Hitting in GABP he could be a 20/20 SS easily, with 20+ 2B's and around .425 SLG% year one. Even a low, low .300 OBP would sport a .725+ OPS. .085 points better than the current SS. At a 6 year discount.

Only Furcal, Hanley Ramirez, Reyes and Drew are above that line in the NL. Alex Gonzalez was before the trade in the AL. Only Pennington (.736) and
Alexei Ramirez (.726) are above that line in the AL now that he is gone. Derek Jeter has a .719 OPS this season.

Cozart has special tools and believe it or not a special bat that has performed and adjusted to every level. He could be an All Star if he goes, .350/.450/.800 which I think he is capable of in one or two seasons. He is more than likely better at the plate than 20 of the Starting SS in the Majors. More than likely in the top half of the defensive ones, so why are most undervaluing him so much?

lollipopcurve
07-20-2010, 09:33 AM
Nice analysis.

Cozart is developing nicely. Defense, speed and some EBH power. Would like to see him get a shot next year.

medford
07-20-2010, 09:51 AM
nice work. I've only seen Cozart play 1x, while he was with the Dragons. At the time, there were questions about his bat, if it was ever good enough to translate along with his defense into a regular major leaguer. In that game, I saw Cozart get to the plate 4 times I think, he drove the ball hard twice (once for a double, another for a loud out), made one poor 1st pitch swing and popped up, and what impressed me the most was a hit and run situation that he executed perfectly, driving the ball into the gap the 2nd baseman just vacated for another hit and moving the runner from 1st to 3rd. I never got to see him get tested in the field to any length, but that 1 game convinced me that he had a pretty good idea of what to do at the plate, and enough power to drive the ball into the gaps with some regularity.

those numbers above look pretty solid for a #7 hitter type in the majors, though didn't he get off to a slow start like just about everyone else in AAA? It would be nice if he could get on base a little more and make a solid #2 hitter. As a shortstop, if Dusty is still around, he's probably going to be pencilled into the 2 hole anyways, but it sure would be nice if either Stubbs or Cozart could get on base a little more often and hit either #1 or #2 and allow the other to hit #7 ahead of the catcher. Perhaps Mes helps the lineup constrcution in a couple of years if he continues on his path to being a regular catcher worthy of a spot higher than the 8 hole. Having stubbs & Cozart hit 7/8 would provide some real solid power and defense ahead of the pitcher, as well as some speed to make those bunt situation a little easier to execute.

Edd Roush
07-20-2010, 11:25 AM
Nemesis, thanks for your analysis. I agree with everything you said. I would really like to see Cozart be the opening day Shortstop with Janish as his back-up. Throw OCab's money at Arroyo to stay and extensions for Bruce and Votto.

bubbachunk
07-20-2010, 12:22 PM
His consistent development this year is right up there with the breakout season of Mez, importance wise for me. (This is in reference to how it is helping the major league team this/next year not so far into the future.) Him showing that he should be able to hold down the SS spot means we can let Ocab walk and save some money to be spent in a more problem area like the bullpen or LF/bench.

TRF
07-20-2010, 12:48 PM
If OCab walks, I expect Janish to be the starter, with Cozart his primary backup until the positions are reversed. That will only happen if Janish can't OPS .730 as a regular.

just my opinion.

nemesis
07-20-2010, 03:31 PM
If OCab walks, I expect Janish to be the starter, with Cozart his primary backup until the positions are reversed. That will only happen if Janish can't OPS .730 as a regular.

just my opinion.

That very well could be. I would expect the bar to be set much much lower for Janish though. If .640 is good enough for Cabrera to stay in the lineup day in and day out with neutral UZR defense, then Janish would be extended the same line with Plus Plus UZR defense you'd think. I could see Cozart having to go on a tear to get the SS job at some point next year. I wish they could add him to the 40 man for September. Not that he'd see playing time.

dougdirt
07-20-2010, 09:58 PM
Cozart is a shortstop who has solid plate discipline, 15-20 HR pop and an above average glove. For anyone who isn't sold on him as a prospect, I just have to ask.... why? Sure, he might only hit you .250, but he is going to walk and hit some HR's while playing good defense. Not everyone has to profile as an all star to be a good prospect.

GIDP
07-20-2010, 10:17 PM
It all depends on how good his glove is for me honestly.

dougdirt
07-20-2010, 10:20 PM
It all depends on how good his glove is for me honestly.

Not as good as Janish. But still quite good.

GIDP
07-20-2010, 10:22 PM
Not as good as Janish. But still quite good.

Yea, I knew it was pretty good.

One question though, I know Janish has a super arm at short, is there a chance Cozart might be the better range SS or is janish better there also?

dougdirt
07-20-2010, 10:23 PM
Yea, I knew it was pretty good.

One question though, I know Janish has a super arm at short, is there a chance Cozart might be the better range SS or is janish better there also?

Similar range, less arm (though still plenty good, just not a plus plus arm like Janish has).

GIDP
07-20-2010, 10:37 PM
Similar range, less arm (though still plenty good, just not a plus plus arm like Janish has).

sounds good

nemesis
07-20-2010, 10:58 PM
Not everyone has to profile as an all star to be a good prospect.

This.

I think alot of my frustration with the masses is unless a guy has a TOR arm or at least 3 plus tools, he immediately isn't a prospect worthy of playing for the Reds. There are not many SS in the entire minors that profile as .750+ OPS guys in the ML who also play decent D at the position. Cozart is one of them. Short of Mesoraco he is to me the single most cost saving, important prospect in the Reds system.

mdccclxix
07-20-2010, 11:22 PM
I'm not sure how likely it is Cabrera won't come back. I feel like he will. I hope I'm wrong and I hope Janish is the starter next year. I think he'll out hit a rookie Cozart, who can ride the bench like Janish has. Seems fair. Can Cozart fill in at 2b or 3b?

dunner13
07-21-2010, 09:04 AM
I'm not sure how likely it is Cabrera won't come back. I feel like he will. I hope I'm wrong and I hope Janish is the starter next year. I think he'll out hit a rookie Cozart, who can ride the bench like Janish has. Seems fair. Can Cozart fill in at 2b or 3b?

If cabera comes back next year I would hope its to fill the same role hatteberg did a few years ago. Give some veteran leadership and insurance until the young player is ready, and once he is then head to the bench.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2010, 11:32 AM
Ryan Hanigan was never a prospect to get excited about, but by replicating his numbers in the minors at the major league level, he has shown that he has a lot of value. The same is likely for Cozart. Cozart will probably never be an all-star (although I wouldn't rule it out completely), but he will at least be valuable to a major league team somewhere. That doesn't sound exciting to some, but personally, I'm thrilled.

nemesis
07-21-2010, 06:49 PM
Ryan Hanigan was never a prospect to get excited about, but by replicating his numbers in the minors at the major league level, he has shown that he has a lot of value. The same is likely for Cozart. Cozart will probably never be an all-star (although I wouldn't rule it out completely), but he will at least be valuable to a major league team somewhere. That doesn't sound exciting to some, but personally, I'm thrilled.



As bad as the SS position has been the last few years, I can't blame you.

Since Larkin retired, it's been Aurillia, Lopez, Gonzalez, Hariston, Keppinger, Janish and now Cabrera. Not to much to be excited over. 5 of the 7 couldn't or can't play neutral D at the position and the two that can or did have had trouble at the plate. Cozart could possibly do both.

Mario-Rijo
07-21-2010, 07:12 PM
As bad as the SS position has been the last few years, I can't blame you.

Since Larkin retired, it's been Aurillia, Lopez, Gonzalez, Hariston, Keppinger, Janish and now Cabrera. Not to much to be excited over. 5 of the 7 couldn't or can't play neutral D at the position and the two that can or did have had trouble at the plate. Cozart could possibly do both.

Agreed, Cozart is a big step in the right direction. And the fact that he has the discipline that he has shown bodes well for further improvement there. Besides Mes he might be the most usable piece left on the farm. IMO he is an above average SS similiar to but a little more well rounded if slightly less talented than J.J. Hardy. He (and Janish) might bridge the perfect gap to a potential star SS like Hamilton or one of the other many talented youngsters.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2010, 08:40 PM
Another big game for Zack Cozart today: 3-for-5 with two doubles and his 15th HR. He's now hitting .313/.402/.575 - .977 OPS in July and .266/.333/.457 - .790 OPS overall. Pretty solid numbers overall.

GIDP
07-25-2010, 08:42 PM
You know every once in a while some players play better at the major leagues? I have a feeling Cozart will be one of them. Seeing better pitching will probably give him a bump.

Total guess work on me.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 09:32 PM
You know every once in a while some players play better at the major leagues? I have a feeling Cozart will be one of them. Seeing better pitching will probably give him a bump.

Total guess work on me.

Funny you mention that, as I was kind of thinking the same thing the other day. I'm excited about the possibility of his taking over the position next year. He's slowly improving year over year.

GIDP
07-25-2010, 09:44 PM
Funny you mention that, as I was kind of thinking the same thing the other day. I'm excited about the possibility of his taking over the position next year. He's slowly improving year over year.

Yea I mean I have nothing to prove it or any stats to back it up but I just have a hunch that his power might show up a little more and that his strike out rate might lower a tad.

AWA85
07-25-2010, 09:52 PM
What is O cab's contract like next year? Thought they were reporting $3 millions option with $1 million buyout. Anyone know if it is player or team option?

Worried if Ocab is here next year, there is no chance Cozart gets a chance.

camisadelgolf
07-25-2010, 10:03 PM
What is O cab's contract like next year? Thought they were reporting $3 millions option with $1 million buyout. Anyone know if it is player or team option?

Worried if Ocab is here next year, there is no chance Cozart gets a chance.
Orlando Cabrera
1 year/$3.02M (2010), plus 2011 mutual option
$1.5M signing bonus
2010:$0.77M
2011:$4M mutual option ($1M buyout if player exercises and club declines; $0.5M buyout if player declines)

I can't make sense of the math, but to answer your question, it's a mutual option, but if Cabrera picks up the option, it doubles the cost of the buyout.

corkedbat
07-25-2010, 10:05 PM
This.

I think alot of my frustration with the masses is unless a guy has a TOR arm or at least 3 plus tools, he immediately isn't a prospect worthy of playing for the Reds. There are not many SS in the entire minors that profile as .750+ OPS guys in the ML who also play decent D at the position. Cozart is one of them. Short of Mesoraco he is to me the single most cost saving, important prospect in the Reds system.

I think a playoff-worrthy team can afford carry one position starter primarily for thier glove (usually SS or C). They just have to be of GG qualtiy defensely and hit at the bottom of the order.

camisadelgolf
07-25-2010, 11:44 PM
Cozart has done a great job on the basepaths this year. He's 23-for-26 in stolen base attempts. He's only three stolen bases behind the league leader (Desmond Jennings).

GIDP
07-25-2010, 11:56 PM
Whats interesting is that his BB% has doubled this season, but his power has dropped.

Imagine if the BB% stays where it is and his power numbers come back up a little. Could be looking at one heck of a good player.

A mid .700 OPS would put him around Stephen Drew type of bat. I could live with that, especially if he picks up a little in the slugging.

Actually nvm I was looking at his stats from 2009.

FAIL. Still my previous points still kinda stand since the stats arent all that much off. His BB rate is around 8% and the ISO is up over .180.

GOYA
07-26-2010, 12:08 AM
Month AVG AB R H 2B HR BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

July .313 80 19 25 6 5 12 18 7 1 .402 .575 .977

nemesis
07-26-2010, 12:23 AM
Whats interesting is that his BB% has doubled this season, but his power has dropped.

Imagine if the BB% stays where it is and his power numbers come back up a little. Could be looking at one heck of a good player.

A mid .700 OPS would put him around Stephen Drew type of bat. I could live with that, especially if he picks up a little in the slugging.

Actually nvm I was looking at his stats from 2009.

FAIL. Still my previous points still kinda stand since the stats arent all that much off. His BB rate is around 8% and the ISO is up over .180.

His numbers in 2009 are a bit skewed. He was raking the first half of the year and had a injury (ankle?) that took him out of the field for a long while IIRC, and tried to DH on it. His numbers fell drastically during that stretch but once he fully healed, he had a bit of an upswing in his #'s...

nemesis
07-26-2010, 02:43 AM
Month AVG AB R H 2B HR BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

July .313 80 19 25 6 5 12 18 7 1 .402 .575 .977

That'd look great in the 2 hole here.

GIDP
07-26-2010, 02:54 AM
That's look great in the 2 hole here.

take 200 points off that OPS and it looks good as long as its coming from the SS position. I hope he can hit at the major league level.

nemesis
07-26-2010, 03:33 AM
take 200 points off that OPS and it looks good as long as its coming from the SS position. I hope he can hit at the major league level.

Seems like a smart kid and quickly adapted and performed at every level he has played at. Even skipped a level. (High A) Nothing trending to think he can't. Something that Dorn, Frazier, Alonso, Heisey, Valakia and a host of others less Fransisco can't claim.

GIDP
07-28-2010, 11:32 AM
.270/.336/.458

If Cabrera wasnt on the team I have a feeling Cozart would be called up by now.

powersackers
07-28-2010, 09:13 PM
Great thread. I hadn't paid much attention as he didn't catch my eye watching him in Dayton a few years back. Now he's got it! I'd love to see him ASAP, but wish no ill will to Ocab, and Janish's roles probably won't ever change on this team.

Janish has a good gig, IMHO. I like him and his role. I have a feeling he's a good sign stealer too, it might be kinda one of his undeclared jobs.

muddie
07-30-2010, 01:52 PM
.270/.336/.458

If Cabrera wasnt on the team I have a feeling Cozart would be called up by now.

I totally agree. Everytime one of the GM's on this board includes him in a trade I cringe.

Grande Donkey
08-02-2010, 10:50 PM
Might be a good time for Cozart to pack his bags.

GIDP
08-02-2010, 11:03 PM
Hes not on the 40 man. Odds are he wont get the call if Cabrera is hurt that bad.

Valaika, and Sutton are the only 2 real probables

corkedbat
08-02-2010, 11:11 PM
Hes not on the 40 man. Odds are he wont get the call if Cabrera is hurt that bad.

Valaika, and Sutton are the only 2 real probables

Yeah, I'd say that if OCab misses any time (looked like a possible ribcage pull to me), Janish takes the starting spot and sutton comes up in reserve (1. BP 2. Janish 3. Cairo at the top of the lineup the rest of the week?). I'd love to see Cozart though.

GIDP
08-02-2010, 11:12 PM
I think we all would like to see Cozart.

Krawhitham
08-02-2010, 11:16 PM
.268 in AAA, oh boy I just can't wait

GIDP
08-02-2010, 11:22 PM
.268 in AAA, oh boy I just can't wait

quality post, instead of trolling or doing what ever you are trying to do look a little deeper.

He has a .340 OBP .400 slugging across almost every level in the minors, and has good peripherals and plays a good defensive SS, and is a base stealer. You arent going to find much better SS prospects in high minors than Cozart.

dougdirt
08-02-2010, 11:24 PM
.268 in AAA, oh boy I just can't wait

Yeah, because batting average is what we should be looking at. Not his solid OBP skills or his 15+ HR's to go with his defense....

davereds24
08-02-2010, 11:46 PM
Who is going to claim Sutton? I would hope at this stage Walt goes with the better player rather than risking losing Sutton.

I suppose they probably want his spot for someone else down the line though.

GOYA
08-03-2010, 01:17 AM
I have a feeling it will be Janish with a not-really-a-SS backup.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:25 AM
I have a feeling it will be Janish with a not-really-a-SS backup.

Everything about the situation screams Valaika.

GOYA
08-03-2010, 01:30 AM
If that happens, I hope we don't see throwing errors of Encarnacion proportions.