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Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 01:53 PM
We're over 90 games into the season, and Joey Votto is still considered by most to be a top 2 MVP candidate, so I figure it's time we at least start discussing it.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/cliff_corcoran/07/19/mvp.watch/1.html


As things stand today, the NL MVP and NL Central races are intertwined. If either Votto or Albert Pujols breaks away in the MVP race, it could be enough to make the difference in the Central, and whichever team wins the Central could well put its first baseman over the top in the MVP race, especially if it's Votto's underdog Reds, who trail Pujols' Cardinals by a half game entering this weeks' action. Pujols is a 30-year-old three-time MVP and future Hall of Famer in his 10th season. Votto is a 26-year-old in his third full season who needed the Final Vote to make the All-Star team. Pujols is a Dominican righty, Votto a Canadian lefty. Their performances this season, however, couldn't be much more similar. The only significant differences are that Votto strikes out a bit more often, while Pujols has benefited from 23 intentional walks to Votto's two.


As of 7/19/10:

Votto: .310/.419/.580, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB
Pujols: .307/.413/.567, 21 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB

I think as of now, the Pujols name brand, and the fact that Votto plays in such a hitter friendly environment, would make me think that Pujols has the upper hand. Does Votto's glove advantage help put him over the edge this year? Should be fun to track as the season goes along.

nate
07-20-2010, 01:57 PM
Obviously, Votto needs to steal more bases.

:cool:

yab1112
07-20-2010, 01:57 PM
I think the only way Votto has a chance to win it over Pujols is if the Reds go farther than the Cardinals in the playoffs. If their numbers remain this close, Pujols takes it easily. I'm not saying he's not deserving, just that its the reality.

Blimpie
07-20-2010, 02:11 PM
To me, the most telling difference is in the IBB category.

The fact that Votto has only been put on base intentionally twice this year (as opposed to 23 for Pujols) is a testament to how hot the Reds offense was the majority of the first half of the season.

If the rest of the Cardinals were hitting like Rolen, Gomes, Phillips, etc... then Pujols would have had far more opportunities to distance himself from Votto.

camisadelgolf
07-20-2010, 02:18 PM
I wouldn't say Votto has a 'glove advantage'. Pujols is about as good as it gets on defense at first base. I think it will come down to whichever team goes further in the playoffs.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 02:24 PM
I wouldn't say Votto has a 'glove advantage'. Pujols is about as good as it gets on defense at first base. I think it will come down to whichever team goes further in the playoffs.

Numbers-wise, so far, Votto has the advantage with the glove this year.

Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 02:31 PM
To me, the most telling difference is in the IBB category.

The fact that Votto has only been put on base intentionally twice this year (as opposed to 23 for Pujols) is a testament to how hot the Reds offense was the majority of the first half of the season.

If the rest of the Cardinals were hitting like Rolen, Gomes, Phillips, etc... then Pujols would have had far more opportunities to distance himself from Votto.

Yet they are still walking at around the same rate. I don't really see how the fact that the walks were intentional means that Pujols has had far less opportunities than Votto. If anything, it shows that Votto is being much more selective when not being intentionally walked.

RedsManRick
07-20-2010, 02:55 PM
I think as of now, the Pujols name brand, and the fact that Votto plays in such a hitter friendly environment, would make me think that Pujols has the upper hand. Does Votto's glove advantage help put him over the edge this year? Should be fun to track as the season goes along.

I'd say that past MVP voting has shown us that voters like to mix it up rather than continue to award it to the same guy each year -- otherwise Pujols would have more than 3.


I think the only way Votto has a chance to win it over Pujols is if the Reds go farther than the Cardinals in the playoffs. If their numbers remain this close, Pujols takes it easily. I'm not saying he's not deserving, just that its the reality.

I believe MVP voting occurs before the playoffs begin. Playoff performance cannot affect the outcome of the MVP vote.

Consider that the Reds have "come from nowhere", I'd say if both guys are close statistically and the Reds make the playoffs (division or wild card), Votto would be given the edge by the voters.

nate
07-20-2010, 03:01 PM
Pujols OBI%: 16.6%
Votto OBI%: 16.5%

Pretty interesting. They drive in others at nearly identical rates.

bucksfan2
07-20-2010, 03:02 PM
I'd say that past MVP voting has shown us that voters like to mix it up rather than continue to award it to the same guy each year -- otherwise Pujols would have more than 3.

Does Pujols only have 3 because the don't like to give it the the same guy every year? Or because Barry Bonds was better early in Albert's career?

Homer Bailey
07-20-2010, 03:08 PM
I'd say that past MVP voting has shown us that voters like to mix it up rather than continue to award it to the same guy each year -- otherwise Pujols would have more than 3.


I think you can attribute that more to basketball than you can baseball, but I do agree that that may exist.


Pujols OBI%: 16.6%
Votto OBI%: 16.5%

Pretty interesting. They drive in others at nearly identical rates.

Where do you find those numbers? I can't find them on fangraphs.

nate
07-20-2010, 03:19 PM
Where do you find those numbers? I can't find them on fangraphs.

Baseballprospectus.com (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=68787)

macro
07-20-2010, 03:31 PM
I believe MVP voting occurs before the playoffs begin. Playoff performance cannot affect the outcome of the MVP vote.


Yep, that's right. Postseason won't have anything to do with it.

Eric_the_Red
07-20-2010, 03:40 PM
If their numbers remain as close as they are (and it is spooky how similar they are so far) then the winner will be the guy on the team that wins the division. And I don't know that I would have a problem with that. Statistically the two are almost indistinquishable this year, so perhaps the award goes to the player that "led" his team to the playoffs.

Obviously this isn't the best way to determine an individual award, but what else can you do? I suspect, however, that Pujols separates himself from Votto by year end. (And I say that as a huge Votto fan.) Pujols has done it his whole career, and he seems to be heating up.

blumj
07-20-2010, 03:48 PM
Does Pujols only have 3 because the don't like to give it the the same guy every year? Or because Barry Bonds was better early in Albert's career?
Bonds plus a couple of seasons the Cards didn't make the playoffs. As long as both teams make the playoffs, and it's that close, I could see it going to whoever seems hotter late in the season.

fearofpopvol1
07-20-2010, 03:50 PM
Pujols hit a home run last night, tying him with Votto. Not sure how that was missed.

yab1112
07-20-2010, 03:54 PM
I believe MVP voting occurs before the playoffs begin. Playoff performance cannot affect the outcome of the MVP vote.

Ah, got it. Well that's good news for Votto then :thumbup:

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2010, 02:29 AM
As of today... edge: Votto.

PuffyPig
07-21-2010, 07:21 AM
[QUOTE=yab1112;2164504]I think the only way Votto has a chance to win it over Pujols is if the Reds go farther than the Cardinals in the playoffs. /QUOTE]

Farther in the playoffs?

The votes are down right after the regular season ends, what happens in the playoffs is not relevant.

If only one of the Reds//Cards make the playoffs, their firstbaseman is the favorite.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2010, 10:24 AM
[QUOTE=yab1112;2164504]I think the only way Votto has a chance to win it over Pujols is if the Reds go farther than the Cardinals in the playoffs. /QUOTE]

Farther in the playoffs?

The votes are down right after the regular season ends, what happens in the playoffs is not relevant.

If only one of the Reds//Cards make the playoffs, their firstbaseman is the favorite.
I said the same thing, but I was too lazy to say that I meant, "If one team goes to the playoffs and the other doesn't . . . "

Homer Bailey
07-28-2010, 05:19 PM
With Votto's 26th HR of the year, his line is now:

.322/.423/.599/1.022

Pujols:

.296/.401/.553/.954

with 23 HR's.

nate
07-28-2010, 05:22 PM
Votto leads the NL in wOBA: .434

Huff is next at .407

Pujols 3rd with .398

Votto is good.

RedsBaron
07-28-2010, 08:47 PM
I'd say that past MVP voting has shown us that voters like to mix it up rather than continue to award it to the same guy each year -- otherwise Pujols would have more than 3.



I believe MVP voting occurs before the playoffs begin. Playoff performance cannot affect the outcome of the MVP vote.

Consider that the Reds have "come from nowhere", I'd say if both guys are close statistically and the Reds make the playoffs (division or wild card), Votto would be given the edge by the voters.

Not only does MVP voting take place after the end of the regular season and prior to commencement of the playoffs, historically voters have in fact tended to five the award to the new guy who "came from nowhere." Even players who won multiple MVP awards in their career have often had to do just a bit more after their initial MVP season to win another MVP trophy.
Examples?
Stan Musial won the MVP in 1943, but had nearly the same season in 1944 and didn't win the award, even though his Cards won the NL pennant both years. Stan had to be even better in 1946 and then in 1948 to win MVPs.
Willie Mays had one terrific season after another after winning the MVP award in 1954, but wasn't again voted MVP until he had a 52 HR season in 1965. Even a 49 HR 141 RBI campaign for the 1962 pennant winners captured no MVP award.
Hank Aaron was voted MVP in 1957. Thereafter he had one mind numbing sensational season after another, but never again copped the award.
Sandy Koufax won the MVP in 1963. He had nearly identical, but somewhat better seasons in 1965 and 1966, with LA winning pennants all three years, but no more MVPs.

Big Klu
07-29-2010, 04:46 AM
Barry Larkin's 1996 season was significantly better than his 1995 MVP season, but he only finished 12th in the voting.

RedsBaron
07-29-2010, 06:49 AM
Barry Larkin's 1996 season was significantly better than his 1995 MVP season, but he only finished 12th in the voting.

The Reds didn't win their division in 1996, unlike 1995, and while Larkin was better in '96 there were a lot of other viable MVP candidates that season.
A few more examples of how voters tend to award the "new kid in town" with the MVP award:
In 1958 Mickey Mantle was a gold glove caliber centefielder who lead the AL in HRs with 42 and hit .304 for the AL pennant winners. The Mick was clearly the best player in the league but the MVP went to Jackie Jensen of the also ran Red Sox. As good as Mantle was, he had just won back-to-back MVPs with significantly better seasons in 1956-57, winning the triple crown in '56 with numbers of .353 52 130 and hitting .365 in '57. Two seasons later voters could decide between tow outfielders on the 1960 AL champs: Mantle, who hit .275 and lead the AL in HRs with 40, or Roger Maris, who hit .283 with 39 HRs and a league leading 112 RBI. Each guy had a good case, but Maris was the New Kid In Town, and won the MVP.
Barry Bonds of course was given 7 MVP awards, but after winning his first in 1990 he probably should have repeated in 1991, but Terry Pendleton was the New Kid In Town and copped the award. The same thing happened to Jason Giambi in 2001 when he failed to repeat his MVP, losing to NKIT Ichiro Suzuki.

RedsBaron
07-29-2010, 08:47 AM
I want to add that the "New Kid In Town" theory certainly does not explain all of the results in MVP voting. Sometimes the voters seem to have given out the award as a "Lifetime Achievement Award" to a player who has had a distinguished career without winning the award, even though he probably did not deserve the honor for the season in which the MVP was bestowed upon him, such as Roberto Clemente in 1966 and Willie Stargell in 1979. There is a long tradition of "Give It To The Cubs Home Run Hitter Even Though He Doesn't Deserve It," as was done in 1952 (Hank Sauer), Ernie Banks (1959), Andre Dawson (1987) and Sammy Sosa (1998). There is a tradition of giving it to a player on a pennant winner. Sometimes the writers just blow it.

Homer Bailey
08-26-2010, 01:19 PM
Fan Friendly:

Votto: .326/.423/.603/.1.026
Home Runs: 31
RBI: 90

Pujols: .319/.411/.597/1.009
Home Runs: 33
RBI: 92

Saber-heads:
Votto:
WAR: 6.0
wOBA: .440

Pujols:
WAR: 5.8
wOBA: .420

PuffyPig
08-26-2010, 01:28 PM
Fan Friendly:

Votto: .326/.423/.603/.1.026
Home Runs: 31
RBI: 90

Pujols: .319/.411/.597/1.009
Home Runs: 33
RBI: 92

Saber-heads:
Votto:
WAR: 6.0
wOBA: .440

Pujols:
WAR: 5.8
wOBA: .420

The winner of the Central will have the MVP playing for them.

VR
08-26-2010, 02:29 PM
The winner of the Central will have the MVP playing for them.

If the Reds win the central....but Pujols wins the triple crown, I wouldn't agree.

Ghosts of 1990
08-26-2010, 03:26 PM
If the Reds win the central....but Pujols wins the triple crown, I wouldn't agree.

For us to win the Central, I think Votto will have to continue being a monster. And Pujols won't win the triple crown. I'll stay on record as saying Pujols wins in HR and RBI by just a few, but Votto hits .335 and wins the batting title.

guttle11
08-26-2010, 03:53 PM
Depends on how many ABs Omar Infante gets. If he qualifies, he'll win the batting title. If not, the Triple Crown is up for grabs.

_Sir_Charles_
08-26-2010, 04:30 PM
They both TIE for the triple crown. How cool would that be. :cool:

Screwball
08-27-2010, 11:18 AM
They both TIE for the triple crown. How cool would that be. :cool:

That brings up an interesting point. What if a player leads the league in BA and RBI, but is "only" tied for 1st for HRs? Did he or did he not win the Triple Crown?

ETA: Pujols went 2-4 with a HR, RBI, and 3 BBs yesterday. Methinks the MVP race will be a heavyweight slugfest 'til the very end.

oneupper
08-27-2010, 11:30 AM
That brings up an interesting point. What if a player leads the league in BA and RBI, but is "only" tied for 1st for HRs? Did he or did he not win the Triple Crown?

ETA: Pujols went 2-4 with a HR, RBI, and 3 BBs yesterday. Methinks the MVP race will be a heavyweight slugfest 'til the very end.

See Joe Medwick 1937. Tied in HRS at 31 with Mel Ott.
Also Carl Yastrzemski tied in HR with Harmon Killebrew at 44 in 1967.