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Kc61
07-21-2010, 11:36 AM
Both are a joy to watch in the outfield. Offensively, Bruce is reputed to have the higher upside. Probably right, but so far this year the comparison is interesting.

OPS - Bruce .760, Stubbs .753.
OBP - Bruce .329, Stubbs .322.
SLG - Both at .431
BA - Bruce .257, Stubbs .251.
HR - Stubbs 13, Bruce 10.
Doubles - Bruce 21, Stubbs 9.
SB - Stubbs 18, Bruce 5.
RBI - Stubbs 48, Bruce 37.
Runs - Both at 51.
K/BB - Bruce 89/37. Stubbs 95/31.

Bruce has 339 official at bats, Stubbs has 311.

I note the RBI difference, which favors Stubbs, and the Doubles difference, which favors Bruce. I think this year the two are pretty close offensively.

Degenerate39
07-21-2010, 11:45 AM
Wow I thought this would be the other way around. Stubbs with more doubles and Bruce with more homers and RBI.

SirFelixCat
07-21-2010, 11:56 AM
So, imo, the one to be most concerned about here, looking at this, is Bruce. Stubbs, if he can learn to make more contact, is only going to get better at the plate, not worse. Bruce, on the other hand...we've been waiting 2 years now for him to "make the next jump" and it's just not happening. I am officially concerned. Yes, his defense is stellar and has def. helped the Reds this season, but his bat just is NOT improving.

Homer Bailey
07-21-2010, 12:05 PM
I think Stubbs is near his peak OPS for the year (meaning I don't think it will be higher by year end), and I think Bruce is near his floor in OPS for the year (meaning I think he will finish much higher). These things cycle. Bruce is super cold right now, and Stubbs is about as hot as he gets.

Just wish Fowler didn't rob Bruce of that home run. I wonder what that could have done for his confidence.

Kc61
07-21-2010, 12:07 PM
Bruce's OBP is up from .303 last year to .329 this year. His doubles are up too.

His homers are way down, from 22 to 10 (similar number of at bats, due to last year's injury). His SLG is down from .470 to .431.

So Bruce is getting on base some more, but at the expense of power.

MississippiRed
07-21-2010, 12:10 PM
I'm really not worried about either one of them. Put them in the lineup (pretty much) every day, enjoy watching the other team's doubles go to die in the outfield, and tell them to relax, no one is going to take their jobs. Keep coaching them, of course, but be glad you have these two excellent athletes on the team.

These two guys are going to be importants parts of a nice stretch of several years where the Reds are a team to beat in the NL.

Cedric
07-21-2010, 12:11 PM
If Bruce doesn't overhaul his swing I doubt very much he hits that "Larry Walker" ceiling..

Since mid April his swing has became the longest on the team and he hasn't adjusted at all.

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2010, 01:28 PM
Bruce has been abhorrent at the plate this year. He's one of my favorite Reds of all time already; and it's really upsetting to me to watch his lack of adjustments and regression as a big league hitter and young player at the plate.

I don't have statistics to back this up, I'm going with what I see on a nightly basis; I think he is honestly a guy who doubts his own abilities to a severe degree. I've heard this from people who are close to Jay, that he sometimes in his head wonders if he belongs and such a lot more then most guys who are at the big league level. Please take that information for what it's worth; that said I do think there is some truth to it as I have watched him since I was told that in May of last season.

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2010, 01:30 PM
Bruce's OBP is up from .303 last year to .329 this year. His doubles are up too.

His homers are way down, from 22 to 10 (similar number of at bats, due to last year's injury). His SLG is down from .470 to .431.

So Bruce is getting on base some more, but at the expense of power.

At the same time.... and this is what makes Bruce so confusing to me; is he is literally so close.

You look at all those doubles he has and that is usually evidence of a player whose power numbers are about to jump with a slight adjustment. Just like the other night against Colorado and Dexter Fowler took a home run away; I've seen Jay hit about 12 balls that could have easily been home runs that would up on the base of the wall, taken away, or off the wall.

The guy really is snake-bitten in that regard.

pahster
07-21-2010, 01:41 PM
At the same time.... and this is what makes Bruce so confusing to me; is he is literally so close.

You look at all those doubles he has and that is usually evidence of a player whose power numbers are about to jump with a slight adjustment. Just like the other night against Colorado and Dexter Fowler took a home run away; I've seen Jay hit about 12 balls that could have easily been home runs that would up on the base of the wall, taken away, or off the wall.

The guy really is snake-bitten in that regard.

Then maybe he hasn't been quite as "abhorrent" as you think.

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2010, 01:53 PM
Then maybe he hasn't been quite as "abhorrent" as you think.

At least for July (ever since the swing that beat Roy Halladay) he has been exactly that. And close only counts in horse shoes.

Many outside of our hardcore fan base will look at the numbers at the end of the year and if he's at 16 home runs and 50 RBI, it won't matter how many 'almost' home runs he hit. I'm sure you know what I'm saying.

pahster
07-21-2010, 02:40 PM
At least for July (ever since the swing that beat Roy Halladay) he has been exactly that. And close only counts in horse shoes.

Many outside of our hardcore fan base will look at the numbers at the end of the year and if he's at 16 home runs and 50 RBI, it won't matter how many 'almost' home runs he hit. I'm sure you know what I'm saying.

That's fine with me. I care about production, not perception. HR (in isolation) and RBI don't tell us much about how a batter performed over the course of a season. There's a lot more to production that the stuff that's on the back of a 1986 Donruss card.

If Bruce ends the year with a .400 OBP and a .450 SLG to go along with those 16 HR and 50 RBI, I'd be ecstatic. I'd also be pretty happy with .350 and .450 year. That's pretty good, especially considering his age and defensive ability.

Bruce slumps just like every other hitter in the history of baseball.

RedsManRick
07-21-2010, 02:48 PM
Many outside of our hardcore fan base will look at the numbers at the end of the year and if he's at 16 home runs and 50 RBI, it won't matter how many 'almost' home runs he hit. I'm sure you know what I'm saying.

And the opinion of those fans will affect what?

Big Klu
07-21-2010, 03:40 PM
He's just unlucky.

Bruce, thy name is Schleprock.

westofyou
07-21-2010, 03:45 PM
And the opinion of those fans will affect what?

The measurement of vitriol aimed at a player for not being what they already anoited him to be?

Ghosts of 1990
07-21-2010, 03:47 PM
That's fine with me. I care about production, not perception. HR (in isolation) and RBI don't tell us much about how a batter performed over the course of a season. There's a lot more to production that the stuff that's on the back of a 1986 Donruss card.

If Bruce ends the year with a .400 OBP and a .450 SLG to go along with those 16 HR and 50 RBI, I'd be ecstatic. I'd also be pretty happy with .350 and .450 year. That's pretty good, especially considering his age and defensive ability.

Bruce slumps just like every other hitter in the history of baseball.

I understand what you're saying. I'm hoping he gets at least to those figures as well.

I love the kid. Hope he is a Red for 15 years. I think long-term he'll be fine, I'd be largely wrong about him if he didn't end up a very good to great player.

But for this year, I just think it's safe to say that he's been disappointing in the eyes of everyone on this board -- or falling short of expectations if we're all honest about it. And to a degree, those growing pains have hurt this team. I'm just being objective about it. In the past I'd make excuses for certain guys I liked a lot. This is just what I see.

Whereas, Gomes for instance has been gravy in terms of production; or what we've had out of date from Phillips and Rolen even.... that is the type of stuff that has really picked up the slack for Bruce coming in a bit below what everyone wanted and expected.

westofyou
07-21-2010, 03:57 PM
Jay Bruce is still a baseball zygote, I'm not disappointed one iota.

RichRed
07-21-2010, 04:11 PM
Jay Bruce is still a baseball zygote, I'm not disappointed one iota.

Ditto. Ryan Howard, just to name one example, was still in A-ball when he was the age Bruce is now.

pahster
07-21-2010, 04:17 PM
Jay Bruce is still a baseball zygote, I'm not disappointed one iota.

Right. The only way one could be disappointed in Bruce is if one had incredibly unrealistic expectations for him. That's not his fault.

RedsManRick
07-21-2010, 04:18 PM
I am disappointed that he hasn't broken out yet. But I'm not the least disappointed with him more generally. Even as is, he's a solid contributor. And he's still very young, very cheap, and making strides in the right places.

edabbs44
07-21-2010, 04:22 PM
Ditto. Ryan Howard, just to name one example, was still in A-ball when he was the age Bruce is now.

I think there are two angles to blame:

1) Unreasonable expectations placed upon a former minor league POY.
2) Itchy trigger fingers because of an unexpected run towards the playoffs.

Bruce should be in the lineup and playing almost every day. I would only sit him at this point against a tough lefty in order to give him a rest and maximize his days off. I'd love to see Cincy get a bat off the bench in order to allow them to feel comfortable in doing this.

It would be much difference if Bruce was absolutely killing this team every time he took the field all season. He is in a slump. Big deal. Showing him the patience and confidence this season will likely go a long ways through his career.

Kc61
07-21-2010, 04:44 PM
Meanwhile, it's been said that if Stubbs can OPS .750, he is a very valuable player. Well, he's doing it and IMO is improving.

Stubbs is a very talented player. He just needs to make a bit more contact, but his power/speed combo is really impressive.

Bruce is younger and is still adjusting to the major leagues. I expect that he will continue to improve. He needs to use the whole field more as a hitter, I'm sure he will.

Stubbs is surprising people (at least me) with his good performance. 48 RBIs in mid-July is quite good for Stubbs and well above expectations. Keep in mind that he hit leadoff early in the year, or the total might be even higher.