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TheBigLebowski
07-21-2010, 12:08 PM
It sure looks like this is going to be a fight to the finish between these two teams....we're obviously evenly matched.

The difference could very well come down to the moves the two teams make.

Not that it means much, but the Cards are "rumored" to be involved with many more high-leverage players than the Reds.

Our starting pitching looks good now...actually, very good with Volquez back in the fold. We have more starters than slots. The Cards are getting two starters back soon and they're not pitching badly as is. However, they are rumored to be heavily involved with both Dan Haren and Jake Westbrook. I would cringe if they acquired Haren, but wouldn't blink an eye if they grabbed Westbrook. However, Westbrook would be a great fit for the Reds if we needed a starter - sinkerballers do well at GABP.

We need bullpen help, as do they. Sorry, but Masset, Ondrasek, Bray and Herrera do not give me much confidence. We're both looking at Isringhausen, but a rational person would have to give them the edge as he pitched there before. We have several prospects we could move for a middle reliever. I hope we make a move there. BTW - I know many Reds fans are running Micah Owings up the flagpole because of last night's outing. It's simply not possible to be sharp when you only pitch every two weeks. Get the guy some frequent activity and you'll see a marked improvement.

Positional needs....Cards don't really have many, especially with the emergence of Jay and Craig. Perhaps a power-hitting OF, but that would be it, IMO. As for the Reds, I'd like to see us grab a good utility-style IF that could supplant Cairo. Rolen is who Rolen is - he will be injured eventually and I don't like the idea of Janish/Cairo at 3rd while he recovers. Many will say we need a better SS but I am higher on Cabrera than most. I don't see a need there, especially with Janish already on the roster. Can't see an upgrade coming at C with Hernandigan and Corky. I could see us making a move to acquire a stud OF with Stubbs being a centerpiece in the deal. Defensively, we have an awesome OF but offensively, it is simply league-average. Don't think a move is coming there but would not be shocked.

There it is...my summation, anyway. I think the Cards will make a major move - possibly for Haren - and I think we'll probably grab a bullpen arm and otherwise stand pat. Considering we're already a 1/2 game behind them, that's not encouraging. However, they're playing out of their minds right now and the other shoe has to be close to dropping.

ian_madden
07-21-2010, 12:24 PM
I don't think either team makes a move because we have the easiest schedule, and they have the second easiest schedule remaining this year. If either of us were to make a move it wouldn't be to make the playoffs, but to advance in the playoffs. In that case, I think that neither team has a "need" that can be fixed via trade this year. Unless they wanted to trade for Oswald. They can have him, he makes too much money. Our bullpen will be fixed in house, if not now, in September. What we need is for this offense to continue putting up great numbers, Rolen, BP, Votto, and Gomes stay healthy, and our young starters to continue to mature. We will contend for more than just year, don't blow the farm on a relief pitcher when we have viable options in house.

Now I was all about trading for Lee, but that was a significant upgrade that did not break the bank. Lets ride this storm, see what Izzy, and Springer do, and maybe, just maybe, make the playoffs, and advance.

I see both teams standing pat because of the poor division, the dominance that both these teams hold over this division, and the huge amount of games remaining against this division. As long as we continue to dominate the teams we are supposed to, and compete against the better teams.

In other words, Both the Reds and Cards make the playoffs.

Hillsdale87
07-21-2010, 12:31 PM
Stats courtesy of Lance's blog...

On Apri 20 Nick Masset retired one batter and allowed four earned runs vs LA.
He ERA after that game climbed to 14.14 (8 games, 7.2 innings, 11 earned run)
Since April 20 his ERA is 3.03........40 games, 35.2 innings, 12 earned runs
Since May 3 his ERA is 2.56...35 games, 31.2 innings, 9 earned runs
Since June 16 his ERA is 0.61....14 games, 14.2 innings, 1 earned run
He allowed 11 earned runs in his first 8 appearances (14.14)
He has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 40 appearances (3.03)

Cairo:
Since May 19: 33 games played in with 19 starts in next 57 games
31 for 89 .348/.404/.506/.910 with 3 HR, 19 RBI

I'm not really worried about the production from either of those guys. And the rest of the bullpen, outside of last night, has been really good over the past 1.5 months. Our team ERA over the past month is one of the tops in the majors. The area where the Reds struggle is offensive production from the outfield. Bruce, Stubbs, and Gomes are inconsitent. However, Bruce and Stubbs are not going to be traded (and I certainly don't want them to be). Unless Jocketty has an opportunity he can't turn down, like a trade for Haren and Drew, I think the Reds should for the most part stay where they are. With the remaining schedule, they should at least win the Wild Card with the team as is.

TheBigLebowski
07-21-2010, 12:35 PM
Stats courtesy of Lance's blog...

On Apri 20 Nick Masset retired one batter and allowed four earned runs vs LA.
He ERA after that game climbed to 14.14 (8 games, 7.2 innings, 11 earned run)
Since April 20 his ERA is 3.03........40 games, 35.2 innings, 12 earned runs
Since May 3 his ERA is 2.56...35 games, 31.2 innings, 9 earned runs
Since June 16 his ERA is 0.61....14 games, 14.2 innings, 1 earned run
He allowed 11 earned runs in his first 8 appearances (14.14)
He has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 40 appearances (3.03)

Cairo:
Since May 19: 33 games played in with 19 starts in next 57 games
31 for 89 .348/.404/.506/.910 with 3 HR, 19 RBI

I'm not really worried about the production from either of those guys. And the rest of the bullpen, outside of last night, has been really good over the past 1.5 months. Our team ERA over the past month is one of the tops in the majors. The area where the Reds struggle is offensive production from the outfield. Bruce, Stubbs, and Gomes are inconsitent. However, Bruce and Stubbs are not going to be traded (and I certainly don't want them to be). Unless Jocketty has an opportunity he can't turn down, like a trade for Haren and Drew, I think the Reds should for the most part stay where they are. With the remaining schedule, they should at least win the Wild Card with the team as is.

Why does everyone love Stephen Drew so much? Had he been drafted in the 14th round, no one would give a crap about him.

Hillsdale87
07-21-2010, 01:00 PM
I don't love Stephen Drew, but he would be a huge upgrade over Cabrera. his OPS is .750, and he plays good defense. I wouldn't overpay for him, but if a deal materializes, I would be thrilled to see him starting over Cabrera.

brm7675
07-21-2010, 01:07 PM
We need bullpen help, as do they. Sorry, but Masset, Ondrasek, Bray and Herrera do not give me much confidence. .

I would agree with Masset and Herrera is back in AAA, but Ondrasek has been down right "nasty" since his recall from AAA and I see big things for him the rest of the season. As for Bray, my only concern is health, because the boy when healthy can plain out bring it.

brm7675
07-21-2010, 01:08 PM
Why does everyone love Stephen Drew so much? Had he been drafted in the 14th round, no one would give a crap about him.


He's younger and better then what we have and the position of SS offer very little in trade possibilities...

GIDP
07-21-2010, 01:09 PM
Id give a crap because hes been pretty good his whole career.

texasdave
07-21-2010, 01:43 PM
All I know is that more players mean more double switches and double switches are the BOMB!!! :D

Hillsdale87
07-21-2010, 01:44 PM
Why are you unsure about Masset? He's been real good since April. Since May 3 his ERA is 2.56...35 games, 31.2 innings, 9 earned runs. That's very good. He's been just as good as Ondrusek recently

texasdave
07-21-2010, 01:45 PM
Nick Masset has given up one run in his last 14 appearances. An ERA of 0.61. At the moment Nick Masset is not the problem.

TheBigLebowski
07-21-2010, 02:11 PM
Nick Masset has given up one run in his last 14 appearances. An ERA of 0.61. At the moment Nick Masset is not the problem.

Are you quite sure he won't be again? Do you not agree that we need bully help?

TheBigLebowski
07-21-2010, 02:17 PM
I would agree with Masset and Herrera is back in AAA, but Ondrasek has been down right "nasty" since his recall from AAA and I see big things for him the rest of the season. As for Bray, my only concern is health, because the boy when healthy can plain out bring it.

I know Danny Ray is in Triple A (that rhymes), but my worry is that he will be the next fix if Ondrasek or Bray implode. DRH has been figured out by the league and is no longer a viable option.

brm7675
07-21-2010, 02:21 PM
I know Danny Ray is in Triple A (that rhymes), but my worry is that he will be the next fix if Ondrasek or Bray implode. DRH has been figured out by the league and is no longer a viable option.

How are you sure of that?

brm7675
07-21-2010, 02:22 PM
What about the Reds looking into getting Miguel T. from the O's as a backup at 3rd while Rolen is on the DL and a backup infielder...

texasdave
07-21-2010, 02:24 PM
Are you quite sure he won't be again? Do you not agree that we need bully help?

I really am not good at offering up trade suggestions. If you ask me SS is a bigger problem than the bullpen. If Walt can improve the team in any way I am all for it. I feel good about Nick Masset but, sure, he could be a problem again. How much do you have to give up to obtain a reliever that you can guarantee won't be a problem? And are the Reds willing to give that up? I don't have the answers to those questions.

redhat
07-21-2010, 02:26 PM
Just a few corrections...

...The Cards are getting two starters back soon...
Kyle Lohse might be back in August. Brad Penny has had a few setbacks and may not pitch again this year.


We need bullpen help, as do they.
The Cards' bullpen is fourth best in the league. They don't strike out many, but they don't walk many either. And... fewest blown saves in the league. The Cards aren't looking for bullpen help.


We're both looking at Isringhausen...
Link? We don't want Isringhausen back.


Positional needs....Cards don't really have many, especially with the emergence of Jay and Craig. Perhaps a power-hitting OF, but that would be it, IMO.
The Cards need help in the middle infield. Brendan Ryan is the only professional shortstop on the team, but he's forgotton how to hit. Schumaker is terrible at second base and he's not hitting enough to make up for it. Utility infielders Greene and Miles are... not. Lopez is OK at second base, but he's tied up playing third for at least another 2-3 weeks as Freese broke his toe while rehabbing an ankle.

We have three power-hitting outfielders already in Holliday, Rasmus and Ludwick. Jay, Craig and Randy Winn make it a logjam. We aren't looking for an outfielder.


I think the Cards will make a major move - possibly for Haren
Holliday is making $17 million per year, Carpenter is at $16 million and Pujols at $15 million (we have to re-sign him before 2012 and he's going to cost a lot more). Plus Wainwright will be arbitration-eligible soon. By 2012 we'll be paying about $70 million per year for four players.

Haren has a huge contract. While it's true that he has said that he'd like to return to St. Louis, that's not happening unless a) he's willing to renegotiate his contract in a major way to backload some of that money or b) Arizona agrees to pay most of his salary. Plus, the DBacks are going to want the moon for him.

If the Cards are going to participate in what looks like a coming Arizona fire sale, they're most likely going to go after Stephen Drew.

brm7675
07-21-2010, 02:29 PM
With the two former Cards pitchers doing good in their try out with the Reds, i think that shows the Reds are going to go that route over trades. If either can help this season it's a plus and at very little cost.

Razzle
07-21-2010, 03:24 PM
Holliday is making $17 million per year, Carpenter is at $16 million and Pujols at $15 million (we have to re-sign him before 2012 and he's going to cost a lot more). Plus Wainwright will be arbitration-eligible soon. By 2012 we'll be paying about $70 million per year for four players.Wainwright will not be arbitration eligible as they bought out his arbitration years. He's due $6.5mm next year and then has two team options in 2012/2013 for $9mm/$12mm that they are sure to pick up. However, I agree with the rest of this, the Cards aren't likely to trade for Haren unless ownership has plans to increase payroll or the team restructures some deals.

The Voice of IH
07-21-2010, 03:59 PM
Just a few corrections...



great insight, thanks for your opinions and facts, love having multiple perspective on the board, only helps!

The Voice of IH
07-21-2010, 04:06 PM
With the two former Cards pitchers doing good in their try out with the Reds, i think that shows the Reds are going to go that route over trades. If either can help this season it's a plus and at very little cost.

yep, the Reds are showing a plan, their strategy, and I hope it works out in the long run.

Lets say that BOTH Springer and Isringhausen (assuming he sings on) show tremendous stuff in Triple A. who do we move down, so they can move up?

1. Owings- say what you will, but yesterday showed that he can't pitch. he has not had a good year, plus if Baker is not going to use him there is no need to have him on the 25 man roster.

2. ??? "YOU DECIDE" (fox news reference :D)

brm7675
07-21-2010, 04:10 PM
yep, the Reds are showing a plan, their strategy, and I hope it works out in the long run.

Lets say that BOTH Springer and Isringhausen (assuming he sings on) show tremendous stuff in Triple A. who do we move down, so they can move up?

1. Owings- say what you will, but yesterday showed that he can't pitch. he has not had a good year, plus if Baker is not going to use him there is no need to have him on the 25 man roster.

2. ??? "YOU DECIDE" (fox news reference :D)

I don't think Isringhausen will be ready till September, remember he hasn't throw for over a year after having TJS, so he could be a September add on, so the other spot would probably be Ownings since I really doubt if Dusty even knows his name, let alone is on the roster.

The Voice of IH
07-21-2010, 04:14 PM
I don't think Isringhausen will be ready till September, remember he hasn't throw for over a year after having TJS, so he could be a September add on, so the other spot would probably be Ownings since I really doubt if Dusty even knows his name, let alone is on the roster.

yep, looks like Fisher is the replacement until Springer is ready.

Pony Boy
07-21-2010, 04:51 PM
I want Adam Dunn back.

brm7675
07-21-2010, 04:54 PM
yep, looks like Fisher is the replacement until Springer is ready.


But whom did Burton piss off to not get a shot?

brm7675
07-21-2010, 04:54 PM
I want Adam Dunn back.

Why?

lidspinner
07-21-2010, 06:29 PM
I want Adam Dunn back.


Keep your Adam but I will raise you a Josh Hamilton.....Man, that would be so nice to have him roaming Left....but I want to keep Edinson also

Rex0r
07-21-2010, 10:32 PM
Glad redhat cleared up the fact that the cardinals DO NOT need bullpen help, its been one of the teams strengths all year. And they are most certainly not interested in Izzy.

If we make a trade i would put money down on a middle infielder, Lohse could throw a rehab start as soon as next week.


As for the reds, trust me that Jockety has a trade or two up his sleeve ;).

Hondo
07-22-2010, 06:18 AM
Glad redhat cleared up the fact that the cardinals DO NOT need bullpen help, its been one of the teams strengths all year. And they are most certainly not interested in Izzy.

If we make a trade i would put money down on a middle infielder, Lohse could throw a rehab start as soon as next week.


As for the reds, trust me that Jockety has a trade or two up his sleeve ;).

I hope you are correct.

I just HATE people here talking about David DeJesus... Dude is 30 and just having a Career Year...

DO NOT TRADE FOR THIS PLAYER>>> PLEASE...