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View Full Version : The Cardinals are the front runners for Roy Oswalt



savafan
07-22-2010, 12:41 AM
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/top-posts/the-cardinals-are-the-front-runners-for-roy-oswalt.php


A major league source tells me that, contrary to what we've all been hearing for the past several days, the Phillies are not the front runners for Roy Oswalt. The St. Louis Cardinals are.

Ugh!!!

Tornon
07-22-2010, 12:43 AM
Maybe the Reds can kidnap him this weekend

alloverjr
07-22-2010, 01:01 AM
What could the Cards possibly have to offer that the Astros would want?

Chip R
07-22-2010, 01:02 AM
Where are they going to get the money to pay for him, Carpenter, Pujols, Holliday and Wainwright, is DeWitt printing money in his basement? I don't think they have the prospects either.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2010, 01:13 AM
They're in a bigger market, and probably sell out a lot more games than the Reds do. Not a bad start

VR
07-22-2010, 01:15 AM
It's the Cards. Acquire what you need now, worry how you pay them later, after you win.

Outshined_One
07-22-2010, 01:17 AM
What could the Cards possibly have to offer that the Astros would want?

Shelby Miller and...um...uh...Jaime Garcia maybe, if the Cardinals expect him to hit his IP limit just as they're making a playoff push?

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 01:20 AM
Where are they going to get the money to pay for him, Carpenter, Pujols, Holliday and Wainwright, is DeWitt printing money in his basement? I don't think they have the prospects either.

Reportedly, Oswalt demands that any team that trades for him pick up his 2012 $16M option. That is why the Phillies have stepped back.

If the Cards do that, they should do well this year, but will be in a real payflex bind next year and especially 2012, when they have to re-sign Pujols.

Currently, they don't have the payflex to sign Pujols with their current payroll situation. Adding $16M to that for an aging pitcher will make it even more impossible.

In terms of prospects, Oswalt's demands seems to have put the Astros in the position where they have to accept a trade to whichever team will accept those demands, as I can't imagine too many teams, if any willing to do that.

Matt700wlw
07-22-2010, 01:22 AM
They're looking to add a Reds killer to two hammers at the top of the rotation.

The Reds don't have a hammer. They HOPE they do, but time will tell.

I'm thinking nausea is setting in.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-22-2010, 02:18 AM
While the Cards go after Roy Oswalt a year after adding Matt Holliday at the deadline, the Reds mine baseball hospice for Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen.

Psychologically, what a blow this would be to the Reds players.

Blimpie
07-22-2010, 08:38 AM
While the Cards go after Roy Oswalt a year after adding Matt Holliday at the deadline, the Reds mine baseball hospice for Russ Springer and Jason Isringhausen.

Psychologically, what a blow this would be to the Reds players.Well said.... I am sure that there are some players who feel that adding Springer/Izzy is nothing more than simply standing pat.

Of course, if you are used to hearing that the Reds are "sellers" about this time every year, standing pat could pass for exciting.

It is all in how you craft the message to the fans and players.

jojo
07-22-2010, 08:57 AM
Psychologically, what a blow this would be to the Reds players.

I'm more worried about what it would do psychologically to the Sundeck... :cool:

yab1112
07-22-2010, 09:01 AM
Walt's upgraded the Reds defense, time to see how his is.

redsmetz
07-22-2010, 09:37 AM
They're in a bigger market, and probably sell out a lot more games than the Reds do. Not a bad start

Their market is just a little bit bigger than our's. Certainly they have much better attendance; winning has a way of causing that. But we've bought into this "small market" mantra so long, we take it for granted. Our overall fan base market is considerable and we've been working on recovering that since the debacle years of Marge Schott and her shortsightedness. But no question, they draw significantly better than we do and are far more lively at those games. I think we're making strides, but we've still got a ways to go.

That said, not sure where they'll get the money in their budget to cover an Oswalt, particularly long term. I hope it's breaks them, frankly.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 09:41 AM
Tip of the cap to the Cards if they get him. Hopefully Walt stays the course and doesn't let this affect him. The Reds only have to worry about themselves at this point. Win and they are in. The Cards getting Oswalt, at worst, would only directly affect them in 2 reg season games (at most) and, if they are lucky, in the NLCS.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 09:46 AM
Yep. Heard Olney on the radio this AM saying St. Louis is close to Oswalt's hometown of Weir, Mississippi, and that it's probable Oswalt would negotiate differently with the Cards than with another club for that reason.

If this happens, the Reds probably need to respond. Either in this trade market or in the offseason. The window is opening, and the Cards are the thunderstorm in our yard.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:08 AM
Yep. Heard Olney on the radio this AM saying St. Louis is close to Oswalt's hometown of Weir, Mississippi, and that it's probable Oswalt would negotiate differently with the Cards than with another club for that reason.

If this happens, the Reds probably need to respond. Either in this trade market or in the offseason. The window is opening, and the Cards are the thunderstorm in our yard.

What would the Reds respond with?

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 10:12 AM
What would the Reds respond with?

Overpaying (to a sensible degree) in young talent for established talent.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:14 AM
Overpaying (to a sensible degree) in young talent for established talent.

The starting pitcher well would effectively be dry at the point the Cards acquired Oswalt. So you'd target whom then?

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 10:16 AM
What would the Reds respond with?

A less panic driven move.

There is a reason why the Cardinals are going all in this year. They know this likely will be their last shot at the playoffs in awhile. I am beginning to think that they don't care about 2011 or 2012, because they most likely think they will be in a rebuilding mode then.

The Reds have a very bright future and should be getting better every year for next few years. No need to damage that to chase the playoffs this year.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:18 AM
What would the Reds respond with?

Nothing drastic this season, unless they get a Godfather offer. Then I'd be looking to be aggressive for a few pieces in the offseason.

That would be my plan even if Oswalt goes elsewhere.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 10:19 AM
A less panic driven move.

There is a reason why the Cardinals are going all in this year. They know this likely will be their last shot at the playoffs in awhile. I am beginning to think that they don't care about 2011 or 2012, because they most likely think they will be in a rebuilding mode then.

Are you kidding? They have Carpenter through 2012 and Wainwright through 2013 if they want them. Holliday will be there, and they will sign Pujols. They'd get an agreement with Oswalt, too, I'd bet. That nucleus competes every year.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 10:24 AM
The starting pitcher well would effectively be dry at the point the Cards acquired Oswalt. So you'd target whom then?

Not sure, because I have no idea who is available. But I really like the profile of guys like Markakis and Ramirez (Hanley). Core bats under control for several seasons. Those kind of guys do not hit the market often, and the only way to get them is to have a bunch of almost fully developed talent, which the Reds do have.

Ultimately, too, ownership will have to do its share. Will they bump the payroll 10-15 million to accommodate the extra talent required?

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:29 AM
A less panic driven move.

There is a reason why the Cardinals are going all in this year. They know this likely will be their last shot at the playoffs in awhile. I am beginning to think that they don't care about 2011 or 2012, because they most likely think they will be in a rebuilding mode then.

The Reds have a very bright future and should be getting better every year for next few years. No need to damage that to chase the playoffs this year.

The Cards' last shot at the playoffs for awhile? How do you figure? They'll return every single principal to their team next year.

So, they'll just magically all start to suck in 2011?

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 10:35 AM
Are you kidding? They have Carpenter through 2012 and Wainwright through 2013 if they want them. Holliday will be there, and they will sign Pujols. They'd get an agreement with Oswalt, too, I'd bet. That nucleus competes every year.

Next season alone, they will have to have 17 members of their 25 at the minimum to keep their payroll at $100M if they add Oswalt. (It's currently at $94M, which is where it's been for awhile.)

It gets even worse in 2012 and later if they sign Pujols.

Add to that the fact that their minor leagues are lacking any impact prospects besides Shelby Miller during those years, and it looks very bleak for the Cardinals after this year.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:36 AM
Next season alone, they will have to have 17 members of their 25 at the minimum to keep their payroll at $100M if they add Oswalt. (It's currently at $94M, which is where it's been for awhile.)

It gets even worse in 2012 and later if they sign Pujols.

Add to that the fact that their minor leagues are lacking any impact prospects besides Shelby Miller during those years, and it looks very bleak for the Cardinals after this year.

I hear they'll have Money-Saved playing RF next year.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:38 AM
Are you kidding? They have Carpenter through 2012 and Wainwright through 2013 if they want them. Holliday will be there, and they will sign Pujols. They'd get an agreement with Oswalt, too, I'd bet. That nucleus competes every year.

Carpenter will be 37 in 2012. Oswalt 34/35. Wainwright 30/31.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:40 AM
Carpenter will be 37 in 2012. Oswalt 34/35. Wainwright 30/31.

Oh, now we're counting on them aging. Sounds like a winning strategy to me!

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 10:40 AM
Carpenter will be 37 in 2012. Oswalt 34/35. Wainwright 30/31.

That's wishful thinking. The Yankees have a bunch of old guys too.

RichRed
07-22-2010, 10:42 AM
We've been counting on the Cardinals fading for years now. I think we need to accept the painful fact that they just know how to put a winning team on the field.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:42 AM
MLB is a battle between producers, not dollars saved, not ages, not PECOTA, not park effects....

westofyou
07-22-2010, 10:45 AM
MLB is a battle between producers, not dollars saved, not ages, not PECOTA, not park effects....

Yep and that's why LaRussa is a great manager, he gets more mileage out of guys like Mike Gallego and Skip Schumaker than any other skipper.

BRM
07-22-2010, 10:45 AM
We've been counting on the Cardinals fading for years now. I think we need to accept the painful fact that they just know how to put a winning team on the field.

I accepted that fact long ago.

Kc61
07-22-2010, 10:45 AM
A less panic driven move.

There is a reason why the Cardinals are going all in this year. They know this likely will be their last shot at the playoffs in awhile. I am beginning to think that they don't care about 2011 or 2012, because they most likely think they will be in a rebuilding mode then.

The Reds have a very bright future and should be getting better every year for next few years. No need to damage that to chase the playoffs this year.

I wouldn't count on the Cards sinking into the "second division." Not their style. Somehow or other they will compete.

And while I don't want to make panic or bad moves, keep in mind that - other than Chapman - the Reds high minors players include some very good prospects but not necessarily great prospects.

The Reds high minors crop is not Bailey/Votto/Cueto/Bruce from several years ago. I think the current crop is less compelling. Some very good prospects, but not necessarily great ones.

So I'm ok trading prospects for proven talent, even modestly overpaying. Each deal stands on its own, but at some point there's a need to focus on the present.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 11:03 AM
Oh, now we're counting on them aging. Sounds like a winning strategy to me!

If you end up panicking and chasing the Cards, you can end up getting into some really bad contracts. Tampa hasn't worried about the Yanks getting guys like Sabathia and Tex, they just worried about themselves. It has worked for them.

I'm not saying Cincy shouldn't do anything. What I am saying is that they should do what they need to do to put a winning team on the field. Even if the Cards were to put a monster team together, there is still the WC and Cincy wouldn't have to play them until the LCS.

And I wouldn't be so concerned about these guys in 2012. Say what you will, there are huge risks with starters in their mid and late 30s.

OesterPoster
07-22-2010, 11:20 AM
I personally don't trust the Oswalt-to-St. Louis rumors. More than likely, IMHO, that it's just a leak by his agent to ratchet up talks with Philly or LA or whoever.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 11:21 AM
If you end up panicking and chasing the Cards, you can end up getting into some really bad contracts. Tampa hasn't worried about the Yanks getting guys like Sabathia and Tex, they just worried about themselves. It has worked for them.

I'm not saying Cincy shouldn't do anything. What I am saying is that they should do what they need to do to put a winning team on the field. Even if the Cards were to put a monster team together, there is still the WC and Cincy wouldn't have to play them until the LCS.

And I wouldn't be so concerned about these guys in 2012. Say what you will, there are huge risks with starters in their mid and late 30s.

Tampa should be worried.

Chip R
07-22-2010, 11:24 AM
Next season alone, they will have to have 17 members of their 25 at the minimum to keep their payroll at $100M if they add Oswalt. (It's currently at $94M, which is where it's been for awhile.)

It gets even worse in 2012 and later if they sign Pujols.



I don't necessarily agree that they will fall into the second division but they are going to have to pay some guys and even though they draw 3M a year, they can only get so much revenue from attendance. Wainwright is going to be arbitration eligible either at the end of this year or next so he won't be cheap anymore and I would bet he'll be looking for a fairly substantial deal. I would think Franklin is going to want to get paid like an elite closer after next year. Ludwick has just started to get expensive. Molina will probably want more money after his deal is up. They still have to pay Lohse for two more years unless they can find someone to take his contract off their hands. Add Oswalt and that payroll skyrockets to Red Sox territory and that market can't sustain that kind of payroll. Of course they could always let Pujols go but that would be the thing that would make thir team worse.

cincrazy
07-22-2010, 11:30 AM
Give me the Cards for this year. Give me the Reds if we're talking next 3-5 years.

Even if the Cards run away and hide this year, it's not the worst thing in the world. This young talent is proving it's legit. And it's going to be around to stay, barring catastrophe.

Besides, the Wild Card is one hell of a possibility. So no need to panic, even if the Cards do reel in Oswalt.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 11:30 AM
Wainwright is going to be arbitration eligible either at the end of this year or next so he won't be cheap anymore and I would bet he'll be looking for a fairly substantial deal.

He's signed and under control through 2013. Yes, expensive, but they control him.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 11:31 AM
This young talent is proving it's legit. And it's going to be around to stay, barring catastrophe.

The Cards have a ton of talent that's sticking around too. So then what?

Again, "young and cheap" is not interchangeable with "productive." They aren't synonymous.

macro
07-22-2010, 11:40 AM
I'm more worried about what it would do psychologically to the Sundeck... :cool:

I mentioned this in the Rolen threads in this forum and in the Sun Deck already, but please refrain from making comments about posters in the Sun Deck forum or their posts, given that they are unable to post in this thread and defend themselves.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 02:52 PM
We've been counting on the Cardinals fading for years now. I think we need to accept the painful fact that they just know how to put a winning team on the field.

Only the person responsible for the team they have on the field right now is now the person responsible for the team that the Reds are putting on the field. In a few years, the Jocketty imprint will fade away from the Cardinals.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 03:19 PM
Only the person responsible for the team they have on the field right now is now the person responsible for the team that the Reds are putting on the field. In a few years, the Jocketty imprint will fade away from the Cardinals.

Maybe. Money's a pretty good surrogate for good GM-ing. Not perfect, no; but I'd take it--all else being equal.

MississippiRed
07-22-2010, 03:32 PM
What would the Reds respond with?

Perhaps they could respond with the fact that St. Louis is only a whopping 140 miles closer to Weir, MS (about 30 miles from where I live) than Cincinnati. That's a little over 2 hours in a car and almost 20 minutes in a private jet.

The Reds are in a better position, prospect wise, to get Oswalt than the Cards. Plus, the Reds are in a better position to pay him next year, after Harang (and presumably Arroyo) go off the books.

Johnny Footstool
07-22-2010, 03:51 PM
Perhaps they could respond with the fact that St. Louis is only a whopping 140 miles closer to Weir, MS (about 30 miles from where I live) than Cincinnati. That's a little over 2 hours in a car and almost 20 minutes in a private jet.

Maybe Oswalt only travels by old-timey riverboat.

Big Klu
07-22-2010, 03:56 PM
Maybe Oswalt only travels by old-timey riverboat.

http://www.resourceactionprograms.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/steamboat-willie-mickey-mouse.jpg

The Voice of IH
07-22-2010, 07:07 PM
ESPN said that Oswalt is trying to steer his trade to St.Louis,

cincrazy
07-22-2010, 07:10 PM
The Cards have a ton of talent that's sticking around too. So then what?

Again, "young and cheap" is not interchangeable with "productive." They aren't synonymous.

I don't care what the Cardinals do. We shouldn't let their moves dictate our actions. We've done a hell of a job building this organization from the ground up the last few years. Keep doing that, the wins will come. The Cards can't afford Carpenter, Wainwright, Oswalt, Holiday, and a new contract for Pujols. They just can't. And if they can, let them. Within a few years they'll be stuck with a bunch of over-paid washed-up veterans, surrounded by minimum wage players.

jojo
07-22-2010, 07:18 PM
I don't care what the Cardinals do. We shouldn't let their moves dictate our actions. We've done a hell of a job building this organization from the ground up the last few years. Keep doing that, the wins will come. The Cards can't afford Carpenter, Wainwright, Oswalt, Holiday, and a new contract for Pujols. They just can't. And if they can, let them. Within a few years they'll be stuck with a bunch of over-paid washed-up veterans, surrounded by minimum wage players.

The Reds really haven't been built from the ground up the last couple years. The current FO basically rode some contract extensions, waited for some inherited farm guys to advance and filled in some gaps with some role players.

The Reds bought Chapman but after that, they're pretty short on impact guys to help them ride out the hoped for transition from the St Louis Cardinals to the team we pine for-the Houston Cardinals.

cincrazy
07-22-2010, 07:20 PM
The Reds really haven't been built from the ground up the last couple years. The current FO basically rode some contract extensions, waited for some inherited farm guys to advance and filled in some gaps with some role players.

The Reds bought Chapman but after that, they're pretty short on impact guys to help them ride out the hoped for transition from the St Louis Cardinals to the team we pine for-the Houston Cardinals.

Well, my point was since Bowden was canned, this franchise has come a long ways. Is it at the final destination yet? No. But it's worlds better. I agree with you, we lack impact players, right now anyways. But give Bruce some time... Give Chapman some time... Give Volquez some time... Hell, maybe Alonso and others. It's a young team, for the most part. And I think we're going to be around a while.

If the Cards run away with this season, I'll be disappointed. But it won't influence my thoughts on the future.

TheNext44
07-22-2010, 07:29 PM
The Reds really haven't been built from the ground up the last couple years. The current FO basically rode some contract extensions, waited for some inherited farm guys to advance and filled in some gaps with some role players.

The Reds bought Chapman but after that, they're pretty short on impact guys to help them ride out the hoped for transition from the St Louis Cardinals to the team we pine for-the Houston Cardinals.

The impact players on already on the team, well seasoned, and just need role players to fill out the roster.

Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Stubbs
Cueto
Leake

Not too many teams have that many impact players filling out their roster. The Cardinals sure don't. That's half the lineup and 40% of the rotation. Add in Wood and you could have 60% real soon. Add in a healthy Volquez and you have 80%.

The Reds don't need any more impact players, they need guys to fill out the roster with league average production. They have plenty of those.

The Bridge is almost complete, this early success just shows how strong the impact players are.

jojo
07-22-2010, 07:37 PM
The impact players on already on the team, well seasoned, and just need role players to fill out the roster.

Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Stubbs
Cueto
Leake

Not too many teams have that many impact players filling out their roster. The Cardinals sure don't. That's half the lineup and 40% of the rotation. Add in Wood and you could have 60% real soon. Add in a healthy Volquez and you have 80%.

The Reds don't need any more impact players, they need guys to fill out the roster with league average production. They have plenty of those.

The Bridge is almost complete, this early success just shows how strong the impact players are.

One important decision I overlooked was the Rolen trade. It's been factor in their good first half...

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 07:37 PM
The Reds really haven't been built from the ground up the last couple years. The current FO basically rode some contract extensions, waited for some inherited farm guys to advance and filled in some gaps with some role players.

The Reds bought Chapman but after that, they're pretty short on impact guys to help them ride out the hoped for transition from the St Louis Cardinals to the team we pine for-the Houston Cardinals.

Not that this team is all as a result of the current regime, but take away Rolen, Leake and Gomes and take into acct the amt (or lack thereof) of payroll flexibility this FO had the past few years, and I think they deserve more than a little credit.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2010, 08:11 PM
Not that this team is all as a result of the current regime, but take away Rolen, Leake and Gomes and take into acct the amt (or lack thereof) of payroll flexibility this FO had the past few years, and I think they deserve more than a little credit.

Of course they do.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 08:31 PM
It would be nice if the Cards acquired Oswalt before Saturday, as the Reds are scheduled face him then. They could at least do the Reds that favor.

Benihana
07-22-2010, 09:50 PM
What is being reported by ESPN
1. Oswalt now might be willing to drop his option.
2. Astros prefer a catcher and/or corner infielder to what STL is offering.
3. Oswalt prefers STL to PHI

If all of this is true, now is the time to swoop in and "steal" Oswalt away from STL. It would be a serious game-changer. Offer Alonso and Frazier or Francisco, as well as any minor league pitcher not named Chapman.

If Houston insists, and you think STL is the alternative, and Oswalt agrees to not have his option picked up, I'd be hesitant but still willing to sub Mesoraco for one of the names above. If you do, ask for Jason Castro as part of the return (might help temporarily cushion the blow of losing Mez, although Castro clearly is inferior at this point.) If it's Mez and Alonso, I ask for Oswalt, Castro, and Lindstrom. Solves all the Reds problems at once. (Well, except the whole SS thing...)

If STL gets Oswalt, I think the division is going to be VERY difficult to win. And that will probably be true for next year as well.

mth123
07-22-2010, 09:58 PM
What is being reported by ESPN
1. Oswalt now might be willing to drop his option.
2. Astros prefer a catcher and/or corner infielder to what STL is offering.
3. Oswalt prefers STL to PHI

If all of this is true, now is the time to swoop in and "steal" Oswalt away from STL. It would be a serious game-changer. Offer Alonso and Frazier or Francisco, as well as any minor league pitcher not named Chapman.

If Houston insists, and you think STL is the alternative, and Oswalt agrees to not have his option picked up, I'd be hesitant but still willing to sub Mesoraco for one of the names above. If you do, ask for Jason Castro as part of the return (might help temporarily cushion the blow of losing Mez, although Castro clearly is inferior at this point.) If it's Mez and Alonso, I ask for Oswalt, Castro, and Lindstrom. Solves all the Reds problems at once. (Well, except the whole SS thing...)

If STL gets Oswalt, I think the division is going to be VERY difficult to win. And that will probably be true for next year as well.

Agreed. The Reds don't have an ace and the future could very well be now.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 09:59 PM
No payroll additions. Reds will not get Oswalt and his contract. Just cross your fingers that the STL deal falls through.

mth123
07-22-2010, 10:03 PM
No payroll additions. Reds will not get Oswalt and his contract. Just cross your fingers that the STL deal falls through.

I think this is true. The Reds really need to deal Harang but that pobably won't happen now. Maybe with Izzy coming, they'll dangle Cordero. That would be bold and create the payflex. The relief market supposedly asking too much for middle guys, maybe some team would take Cordero and his contract to avoid trading talent.

I know it won't happen. But its a better plan than standing pat IMO.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:21 PM
No payroll additions. Reds will not get Oswalt and his contract. Just cross your fingers that the STL deal falls through.

You don't see the WC as a realistic possibility?

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:26 PM
You don't see the WC as a realistic possibility?

No. The other WC teams will add payroll and talent.

The postseason ship sailed when they missed out on Lee.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:45 PM
No. The other WC teams will add payroll and talent.

The postseason ship sailed when they missed out on Lee.

Who are you worried about, specifically? Who's gonna add payroll? Philly? They are looking to shed Werth to add pitching. The West? I'm not worried.

Because the other guys are all going to just beat on each other while Cincy doesn't really have a whole hell of a lot of games versus better teams. SF, LA, SD and Colorado can play each other every night for all I care.

Check out SF for example:

3 LA
2 Colo
4 Atl
3 SD
3 STL
3 PHI
3 Cincy
3 Colo
3 LA
3 SD
3 LA
2 Colo
3 SD

Cincy has 22 more games against that caliber. 38 for SF.

You have to admit that this is kind of an advantage.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:47 PM
LA, Colorado, SF, Mets are all likely to add payroll.

Reds had their shot with Lee--you could almost hear the consternation in Jocketty's voice when their offer fell short. He saw the writing on the wall.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:52 PM
LA, Colorado, SF, Mets are all likely to add payroll.

Reds had their shot with Lee--you could almost hear the consternation in Jocketty's voice when their offer fell short. He saw the writing on the wall.

The Mets worry me as much as the Pirates do. Getting swept in Zona with your 3-4-5 hitters going 0-16 with 10 Ks in the final game shows zero balls. That team is cooked, no matter who they add.

Unless two teams pull away and destroy the other two, there is going to be a lot of back and forth in the West. They all have to continually play one another. The math is working in Cincy's favor. If Cincy takes care of business, they are in good shape. They don't need Lee and if the Cards get Oswalt it won't affect them that much. Just win and they will be fine.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:54 PM
Another team whose record might be better than the Reds' by season's end is Florida.

Brutus
07-22-2010, 10:59 PM
Anyone consider: perhaps the reason St. Louis is so being often reported as the leader is perhaps the Reds are involved in discussions and Houston is trying to up their offer? It would make sense if you consider the Reds have more talent to trade than St. Louis, and thereby the Astros have the most to gain by letting the world to know the Cards are in front.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 11:01 PM
Another team whose record might be better than the Reds' by season's end is Florida.

Or they might be selling by Monday.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 11:02 PM
Or they might be selling by Monday.

True. They, like the Reds, are riding the razor's edge.

Homer Bailey
07-22-2010, 11:03 PM
True. They, like the Reds, are riding the razor's edge.

Yes, the similarities are shocking.

Marlins 9 GB in East, 5 GB in WC
Reds 1.5 GB in Central, Leading WC.

WVRed
07-22-2010, 11:04 PM
This was mentioned earlier in the thread, but the Cardinals are sinking some pretty big bucks into some players, namely Holliday and possibly Oswalt.

I'm actually hoping more for the Cardinals to keep adding older veteran players looking for a big payday so that when Pujols contract is close to being up, DeWitt's money is dried up and they lose him to either the Mets or Yankees. That alone would rip the heart out of St Louis.

SirFelixCat
07-22-2010, 11:27 PM
Less than zero chance the Rockies add payroll, FCB. I have no idea where you come up w/ some of this stuff.

reds44
07-22-2010, 11:29 PM
Yes, the similarities are shocking.

Marlins 9 GB in East, 5 GB in WC
Reds 1.5 GB in Central, Leading WC.
MY GUY.

Spitball
07-22-2010, 11:37 PM
What is being reported by ESPN
1. Oswalt now might be willing to drop his option.
2. Astros prefer a catcher and/or corner infielder to what STL is offering.
3. Oswalt prefers STL to PHI

If all of this is true, now is the time to swoop in and "steal" Oswalt away from STL. It would be a serious game-changer. Offer Alonso and Frazier or Francisco, as well as any minor league pitcher not named Chapman.

If Houston insists, and you think STL is the alternative, and Oswalt agrees to not have his option picked up, I'd be hesitant but still willing to sub Mesoraco for one of the names above. If you do, ask for Jason Castro as part of the return (might help temporarily cushion the blow of losing Mez, although Castro clearly is inferior at this point.) If it's Mez and Alonso, I ask for Oswalt, Castro, and Lindstrom. Solves all the Reds problems at once. (Well, except the whole SS thing...)

If STL gets Oswalt, I think the division is going to be VERY difficult to win. And that will probably be true for next year as well.

Well thought out post, Benihana.

I can't imagine anyone with more motivation to win the NL Central than Walt Jocketty. He hasn't played it out publicly, but he has to want to prove he is better than John Mozeliak. It is just human nature. Who wouldn't want to prove their former employer was mistaken? Beating his replacement has to be great motivation.

Jocketty swooped in on Chapman at the last minute. He became one of the last serious bidders on Lee. With the Cards and John Mozeliak as the competition, I believe he has the prospects and the motivation to keep Oswalt from going to St. Louis.

savafan
07-23-2010, 12:07 AM
I've been hearing that the Mets don't have room to add payroll, for what it's worth.

KronoRed
07-23-2010, 12:09 AM
This was mentioned earlier in the thread, but the Cardinals are sinking some pretty big bucks into some players, namely Holliday and possibly Oswalt.

I'm actually hoping more for the Cardinals to keep adding older veteran players looking for a big payday so that when Pujols contract is close to being up, DeWitt's money is dried up and they lose him to either the Mets or Yankees. That alone would rip the heart out of St Louis.

I doubt it, the Cardinals have always and likely will always have deeper pockets and better fan support then the Reds, they will find the cash to sign Pujols and keep on going.

KoryMac5
07-23-2010, 12:10 AM
Cards want the Astros to eat a sizeable portion of Oswalt's contract. I don't see a reluctant to deal owner swallowing that pill very easily. I don't buy the Cardinals, Mets, or Dodgers taking on Oswalt at this point.

Spitball
07-23-2010, 12:47 AM
Cards want the Astros to eat a sizeable portion of Oswalt's contract. I don't see a reluctant to deal owner swallowing that pill very easily. I don't buy the Cardinals, Mets, or Dodgers taking on Oswalt at this point.

I wonder how much of the Oswalt speculation is being spread by his agent's people.

REDREAD
07-23-2010, 01:11 AM
Another team whose record might be better than the Reds' by season's end is Florida.

The Reds have a huge advantage with the unbalanced schedule. All our competition in the division (other than St Louis) sucks. That's what makes the wild card unfair.. Florida only has Washington as a cupcake in their division.. NY, Phil, and Atl are all pretty high quality teams compared to what we face.

Other WC contenders might be more talented, but we get to play Pittsburg many times, thanks to Bud's unbalanced schedule.

Philly should've never traded Cliff Lee. Keep him and pair him with Hollday.. Go all in for this year. Then they wouldn't have to worry about getting Oswalt now.

The Reds will be fine if they can get another bullpen arm.. A decent fill in at third like Wigginton would be nice too.

I think we can just forget about trading Harang (injury issues) or Cordero (stinks for his salary) this year...

GAC
07-23-2010, 05:43 AM
I can't believe the Astros are even thinking of dealing a top-of-line starter to a division rival? What is the Astro's ownership smoking?

Ron Madden
07-23-2010, 06:53 AM
I can't believe the Astros are even thinking of dealing a top-of-line starter to a division rival? What is the Astro's ownership smoking?

As long as they get what they want in return for Oswalt I don't think it really matters who they make a deal with.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 09:22 AM
Wow. I'm to believe that the majority of the mid and large market contenders are out of money? Uh-huh.

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2010, 09:58 AM
No. The other WC teams will add payroll and talent.

The postseason ship sailed when they missed out on Lee.

Debbie Downer. I still say we win the Central. The bats will wake up and Rolen will come back rested. The cards are clicking on all cylinders right now, that's NOT going to last. The Cards playing their best baseball right now and they've only managed a 1.5 game lead. I'm not even REMOTELY worried.

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2010, 10:04 AM
nm

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 10:22 AM
Debbie Downer. I still say we win the Central. The bats will wake up and Rolen will come back rested. The cards are clicking on all cylinders right now, that's NOT going to last. The Cards playing their best baseball right now and they've only managed a 1.5 game lead. I'm not even REMOTELY worried.

The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.

The Reds' best shot is the WC, but even it isn't a great chance because their competitors in the WC have deeper pockets.

I'm coming around to the idea of just bunkering up and looking to next year. Still, couldn't hurt to look around at the deadline for some long-term talent.

lollipopcurve
07-23-2010, 10:35 AM
The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.

Only if they get Oswalt.

REDREAD
07-23-2010, 10:41 AM
I'm coming around to the idea of just bunkering up and looking to next year. Still, couldn't hurt to look around at the deadline for some long-term talent.

I'm in the middle here. I figured there'd be a point in the season when the Cards would surge. I give us about a 50/50 chance to make the playoffs. We need Rolen to get healthy and stay healthy. We need the bullpen to be strong (from within or through trades). The starting pitching is adequate, especially if Harang can get healthy again.

The team is not a World Series contender by any means, but even if we just squeak into the playoffs, that would be a huge moral victory. It would help sell tickets next year too. Heck, I am trying to arrange a weekend to see the Reds (if work cooperates).. I have not seen them live since 2001, despite only being about 2.5 hours away. Looks like we have finally shook of the stentch of John Allen and Carl Lindner.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 10:42 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/roy-oswalt-needs-to-drop-demands-072210



the Astros are not enamored with the Cardinals’ prospects, according to a source with close knowledge of the talks. Meanwhile, Oswalt is sending mixed signals about his other preferred clubs; his list is said to be “a moving target.”

HotCorner
07-23-2010, 11:10 AM
I can't believe the Astros are even thinking of dealing a top-of-line starter to a division rival? What is the Astro's ownership smoking?

Mariners and Rangers say hi. ;)

jojo
07-23-2010, 11:26 AM
Mariners and Rangers say hi. ;)

That's clever.

KoryMac5
07-23-2010, 11:40 AM
Wow. I'm to believe that the majority of the mid and large market contenders are out of money? Uh-huh.

The Dodgers have 2-3 million dollars to add to payroll and the Mets can add some money but they have been sniffing around cheaper alternatives than Oswalt. The Mets may be large market but the Wilpons have lost a considerable amount of money in the Madoff scandal.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 11:42 AM
The Dodgers have 2-3 million dollars to add to payroll and the Mets can add some money but they have been sniffing around cheaper alternatives than Oswalt. The Mets may be large market but the Wilpons have lost a considerable amount of money in the Madoff scandal.

This argument gets bandied about every year, and every year some huge market team gets some great player from a perennial loser and they get that loser to pick up a substantial portion of the tab. For a lot of loser franchises dumping ANY payroll at all as seen as the end in itself.

traderumor
07-23-2010, 12:00 PM
The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.

The Reds' best shot is the WC, but even it isn't a great chance because their competitors in the WC have deeper pockets.

I'm coming around to the idea of just bunkering up and looking to next year. Still, couldn't hurt to look around at the deadline for some long-term talent.Easy position to take after just having an 8 game win streak end--the last 7 of which came at home, where they have an anomalic record.

I think the Cards played about to the level of their talent and had a record commensurate with their roster in the 1st half. They will have ups and downs all season and rely on Carpenter and Wainwright to win each time they go out and hope to steal a win with the rest. Garcia will fall off as the season wears on and the rest of the rotation is smoke and mirrors, and that includes a healthy Lohse and Penny.

I think the Reds and Cards both are what they are absent a slobberknocker deadline deal. The team with the last good run will win the division, the other will win or be within a few games of the WC.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 12:08 PM
The Reds have a brutal three-city west coast trip at the end of August. The Cardinals are done with trips out west.

Strength of schedule based on win-loss record tells about 1/100 of the actual difficulty of a team's schedule. I'd much rather have the Cards' schedule from here on in.

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2010, 12:34 PM
The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.

The Reds' best shot is the WC, but even it isn't a great chance because their competitors in the WC have deeper pockets.

I'm coming around to the idea of just bunkering up and looking to next year. Still, couldn't hurt to look around at the deadline for some long-term talent.

I agree that they underperformed...offensively. But I certainly wouldn't call them a deep team. They've got a solid starting unit, but their bench and their minors is FAR from deep. Same goes for their starting rotation. Top 2/3 are excellent, below that...extremely suspect. Their bullpen OVERperformed IMO.

But how you think they'll "run away" with the division is beyond me. You're overestimating the Cards and undervaluing your own Reds IMO. Considerably...on both fronts.

Injuries happen, and we're much more capable of dealing with injuries than the Cards are and it's not even close this year. We've got several capable starters able to fill in if needed. We've also got a LOT more capable position players on the farm that are much more ready than anything St. Louis has. I just don't see a "run away" scenerio lining up at all.

nate
07-23-2010, 12:43 PM
I think the Cards' pitching is likely to not perform as well as their ERA would indicate. No team has outperformed their ERA - FIP more than the Cards this year. Still, it's a better staff than the Reds have but I think it's mainly due to them not walking as many batters as the Reds do. They strike out only slightly more hitter than the Reds (6.77 to 6.51) but walk fewer (2.92 to 3.50) and give up fewer HR (0.80 to 0.97.)

All the more reason for the Reds to either get Oswalt, spoil the Cardinals chance at doing so or add pitching depth elsewhere.

traderumor
07-23-2010, 02:50 PM
The Reds have a brutal three-city west coast trip at the end of August. The Cardinals are done with trips out west.

Strength of schedule based on win-loss record tells about 1/100 of the actual difficulty of a team's schedule. I'd much rather have the Cards' schedule from here on in.In baseball, it all depends on when you are playing someone. Looking at the schedule that far out is not very predictive.

fearofpopvol1
07-23-2010, 02:58 PM
If the Cards are unable to land Oswalt, it does not mean the Reds should not be trying to get another starter. In fact, it might help them beat out the Cardinals if they do.

I vote for Lilly.

savafan
07-23-2010, 03:30 PM
I vote for Lilly.

Pass

Brutus
07-23-2010, 04:01 PM
If the Cards are unable to land Oswalt, it does not mean the Reds should not be trying to get another starter. In fact, it might help them beat out the Cardinals if they do.

I vote for Lilly.

I think the Reds already have a bunch of Ted Lillys. He's a solid pitcher, but unspectacular and because of his flyball tendencies, not a great fit for the Reds, in my opinion.

PuffyPig
07-23-2010, 05:00 PM
The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.



Funny, I see the Cards with some very good high end talent (Pujols, Wainwright, Carpenter, Rasmus and Holliday) and a bunch of mismash.

One thing they don't have is depth.

Their #4-5 starters are Suppn and Hawksworth. Our #8 and 9 are Lecure and Maloney and I like them every bit as much (which isn't much). That doesn't include Chapman.

I don't see how they underperformed.

Their 1-3 starters won't play any better. Pujols and Holliday are hitting very well. Rasmus won't hit any better. They really aren't getting any down years from anybody expected to excel.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 05:03 PM
If the Reds trotted Jeff Suppan out every 5th day FCB would find that to be a sure sign that the Reds were a second class organization on their way to the scrap heap.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:05 PM
Funny, I see the Cards with some very good high end talent (Pujols, Wainwright, Carpenter, Rasmus and Holliday) and a bunch of mismash.

One thing they don't have is depth.

Their #4-5 starters are Suppn and Hawksworth. Our #8 and 9 are Lecure and Maloney and I like them every bit as much (which isn't much). That doesn't include Chapman.

I don't see how they underperformed.

Their 1-3 starters won't play any better. Pujols and Holliday are hitting very well. Rasmus won't hit any better. They really aren't getting any down years from anybody expected to excel.

John Jay's been out of this world, Holliday spent the first two months fumbling around and is only the last month and a half turned it on, and Pujols' OB is down by about .40, Molina's a better hitter than his numbers this year, as is Schumakers, plus Ludwick will be back soon. I agree their pitching--without getting Oswalt--is probably not going to get any better, but they've got a lot of headroom in their offense.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:07 PM
If the Reds trotted Jeff Suppan out every 5th day FCB would find that to be a sure sign that the Reds were a second class organization on their way to the scrap heap.

As long as they had Wainwright and Carpenter at the top, they could have Luther Campbell in the 5th slot for all I care.

If 60% of your rotation gives you a good to excellent chance to win every start they make, you're going to carry home a bunch of hardware.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 05:11 PM
As long as they had Wainwright and Carpenter at the top, they could have Luther Campbell in the 5th slot for all I care.

If 60% of your rotation gives you a good to excellent chance to win every start they make, you're going to carry home a bunch of hardware.

If your 5th starter is a punching bag that means you take a hit every 5th day, hardly a 'championship' approach.

The fact is he sucks the wind out of their sails whenever he takes the mound, that's bad for the team.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:12 PM
If your 5th starter is a punching bag that means you take a hit every 5th day, hardly a 'championship' approach.

The fact is he sucks the wind out of their sails whenever he takes the mound, that's bad for the team.

He really hasn't sucked for the Cards till this start. Typical 5th starter till today: 5 innings of one or two run ball.

A lot of great teams have gotten by with crappy 5th starters; look no further than the '99 team's own Jason Bere and Steve Avery.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 05:15 PM
He really hasn't sucked for the Cards till this start. Typical 5th starter till today: 5 innings of one or two run ball.

If the Reds had a 5th starter who had an era over 6 and was 0-5 with a 14/13 k/bb rate and a 1.70 whip you wouldn't waste any time saying that he sucked.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:18 PM
If the Reds had a 5th starter who had an era over 6 and was 0-5 with a 14/13 k/bb rate and a 1.70 whip you wouldn't waste any time saying that he sucked.

Sure, but so what if the rest of the rotation was great? I know Cabrera sucks, but I sure as heck don't voice it because honestly, the offense has otherwise been excellent.

Focus on what matters.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 05:28 PM
The Cards underperformed in the first half. That's a very deep team with many high K pitchers and a strong defense. They'll run away with the division.

The Reds' best shot is the WC, but even it isn't a great chance because their competitors in the WC have deeper pockets.

I'm coming around to the idea of just bunkering up and looking to next year. Still, couldn't hurt to look around at the deadline for some long-term talent.

A strong defense my tookus, Schumaker is one of the worst 2B in baseball and Felipe is playing 3rd those are 2 guys who have a tough time making the routine plays. And if they play the best defender at SS they get no offense out of that spot either which they have since declined to do. Freese is still TBD how good he is over there. Ludwick is not quite but nearly Gomes-esque in RF and Holliday is no gold glover himself. Easily the worst Cardinals defense in the past decade.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:30 PM
A strong defense my tookus, Schumaker is one of the worst 2B in baseball and Felipe is playing 3rd those are 2 guys who have a tough time making the routine plays. And if they play the best defender at SS they get no offense out of that spot either which they have since declined to do. Freese is still TBD how god he is over there. Ludwick is not quite but nearly Gomes-esque in RF and Holliday is no gold glover himself. Easily the worst Cardinals defense in the past decade.

Holliday is an excellent defender. Freese is solid as is Lopez (though awful at SS or 2nd). Schumaker's pretty crummy at 2nd, yeah.

PuffyPig
07-23-2010, 05:36 PM
John Jay's been out of this world, Holliday spent the first two months fumbling around and is only the last month and a half turned it on, and Pujols' OB is down by about .40, Molina's a better hitter than his numbers this year, as is Schumakers, plus Ludwick will be back soon. I agree their pitching--without getting Oswalt--is probably not going to get any better, but they've got a lot of headroom in their offense.

Holliday for the year has his OPS over .900 and that's where it likely will stay.

He was poor early on, but his yearly numbers are on par.

Pujols is a bit below is lifetime averges, but his K-rate is worse so that's to be expected. He's still at the top or near top of th eelague.

Rasmus is likely going to go downhill in the second half, as that's how he is trending.

JJ has been out of this world. True. It's not likely to continue.He simply doesn't have that kind of upside. He doesn't strike me as a guy who's going to continue having a BABIP in the mid .400's. Since no one does.

nate
07-23-2010, 05:37 PM
The Reds are a better defensive team than the Cards. Not much better, but better.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:39 PM
The Reds are a better defensive team than the Cards. Not much better, but better.

I agree. For my part, I don't think I've intimated otherwise.

guttle11
07-23-2010, 05:40 PM
The Cardinals are on the verge of being shut out 2 straight days, with only 6 hits combined. Very real signs of falling out of contention. ;)

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 05:41 PM
The Cardinals are on the verge of being shut out 2 straight days, with only 6 hits combined. Very real signs of falling out of contention. ;)

Let's hope so.

PuffyPig
07-23-2010, 05:47 PM
The Reds are a better defensive team than the Cards. Not much better, but better.

DER:

Reds 3rd in the NL (7th in the majors) at .704, Cards 6th (12th in the majors)at .695.

PuffyPig
07-23-2010, 05:55 PM
Suppan gives up 3 HR's, 3 walks and 0 K's.

It's hard to give up 10 hits in 6 innings without being BABIP unlucky, but Suppan can do it.

savafan
07-23-2010, 05:58 PM
http://twitter.com/jaysonst

Heard from one source that the 2 major-league players StL told Hou it would deal for Oswalt are John Jay & Brendan Ryan. Not enough for Hou!

Now in Rumor Central (for ESPN Insiders): Yankees are in on Dan Haren & Roy Oswalt (not to mention Jake Westbrook)

Also new in Rumor Central (for ESPN Insiders): Add Dodgers to list of teams talking to Astros about Oswalt

One more in Rumor Central: Astros asking one big-leaguer, 2 high-end prospects & a second-tier prospect for Oswalt

backbencher
07-23-2010, 06:01 PM
http://twitter.com/jaysonst

One more in Rumor Central: Astros asking one big-leaguer, 2 high-end prospects & a second-tier prospect for Oswalt

So that is Heisey, Alonso, Francisco/Frazier and Maloney, plus giving Oswalt an unaffordable extension? Too much.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 06:02 PM
Reds are NOT going to get Oswalt and his contract. You're just going to have to accept that.

Brutus
07-23-2010, 06:06 PM
So that is Heisey, Alonso, Francisco/Frazier and Maloney, plus giving Oswalt an unaffordable extension? Too much.

That, as is, probably too much.

But in reality, how many times do trades actually wind up being as much as the reported asking price? Frankly -- never.

nate
07-23-2010, 06:11 PM
DER:

Reds 3rd in the NL (7th in the majors) at .704, Cards 6th (12th in the majors)at .695.

I was looking at team UZR which had the Reds about a run or so better than the Cards.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 06:29 PM
Reds are NOT going to get Oswalt and his contract. You're just going to have to accept that.

Agreed, it's not going to happen, it's too off the plan that they are taking at this juncture

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 07:51 PM
The Reds are a better defensive team than the Cards. Not much better, but better.

We could plug SS and platoon LF and soar much higher above them, but as it stands I think we are much better.

nate
07-23-2010, 07:54 PM
We could plug SS and platoon LF and soar much higher above them, but as it stands I think we are much better.

Yep, maybe so!

Scrap Irony
07-23-2010, 07:59 PM
SS has been better than league average this season. UZR pegs Cabrera as a plus defender. (Whatever that's worth.)

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 08:10 PM
SS has been better than league average this season. UZR pegs Cabrera as a plus defender. (Whatever that's worth.)

He makes alot of plays actually and his range while not ideal and can at times look really bad isn't as bad as some would have you believe. It's not Keppinger bad at least, he's alot like Hairston these days (range, arm) but a bit more consistent which is adequate IMO. A good stop gap but one that I'd still prefer to upgrade next year at least.

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2010, 08:25 PM
Reds are NOT going to get Oswalt and his contract. You're just going to have to accept that.

I think it's a longshot (and to be honest, I don't WANT the Reds going after him), but I'm sure it was also a foregone conclusion that we wouldn't get Chapman either. You tend to type certainties when you're going on gut reaction instead of facts. I'm guilty of it too, as I'm sure many are, but you've done it quite a bit this week IMO. Nobody here knows WHAT Walt & Bob will do. Bob clearly wants a winner, he may very well open up the checkbook a bit more this year if he thinks we're close and if Walt suggests it.

Scrap Irony
07-23-2010, 08:31 PM
Again, according to UZR, he's almost 20 runs better than Hairston and 30 better than Keppinger.

According to UZR, he's better than Larkin and about even with a late career (1980-1988) Davey Concepcion.

Again, according to UZR.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 08:41 PM
I think it's a longshot (and to be honest, I don't WANT the Reds going after him), but I'm sure it was also a foregone conclusion that we wouldn't get Chapman either. You tend to type certainties when you're going on gut reaction instead of facts. I'm guilty of it too, as I'm sure many are, but you've done it quite a bit this week IMO. Nobody here knows WHAT Walt & Bob will do. Bob clearly wants a winner, he may very well open up the checkbook a bit more this year if he thinks we're close and if Walt suggests it.

So when they don't get him, will you buy me a bag of nachos or pretzels or something?

Will M
07-23-2010, 08:56 PM
He makes alot of plays actually and his range while not ideal and can at times look really bad isn't as bad as some would have you believe. It's not Keppinger bad at least, he's alot like Hairston these days (range, arm) but a bit more consistent which is adequate IMO. A good stop gap but one that I'd still prefer to upgrade next year at least.

My eyes told me that the first few weeks of the year his range was terrible. Now my eyes agree with what you say: defensively his range may not be gold glove but he makes up for it by having quick steady hands.

Cabrera's defense hasn't been a reason that I have wanted to upgrade SS. Its been due to his 'offense'. I use the term loosely.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 09:40 PM
Again, according to UZR, he's almost 20 runs better than Hairston and 30 better than Keppinger.

According to UZR, he's better than Larkin and about even with a late career (1980-1988) Davey Concepcion.

Again, according to UZR.

Now that is mind boggling. 30 better than Kepp I can believe, I can probably even buy 20 better than Hairston at any given time but no way he's on par with Larkin and probably not a late career Davey either.

jojo
07-23-2010, 09:53 PM
Again, according to UZR, he's almost 20 runs better than Hairston and 30 better than Keppinger.

According to UZR, he's better than Larkin and about even with a late career (1980-1988) Davey Concepcion.

Again, according to UZR.

where are you getting those numbers?

MattyHo4Life
07-24-2010, 01:38 AM
http://twitter.com/jaysonst

Heard from one source that the 2 major-league players StL told Hou it would deal for Oswalt are John Jay & Brendan Ryan. Not enough for Hou!

I would imagine that Shelby Miller would be included in any trade for Oswalt. I wouldn't be surprised to see Allen Craig included as well. I doubt the Cardinals will make any big trades this year, but DeWitt has been saying that the Cardinals have money to spend.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2010, 02:03 AM
where are you getting those numbers?

pretty sure he was being sarcastic.

GAC
07-24-2010, 09:06 AM
The thing that worries me about Oswalt is that he has been diagnosed with a degenerative disk disease, and has had lower back problems that have landed him on the DL several times over the last few years. I'm not saying the guy is in full decline - he is still an effective pitcher - but only that there is the age and risk factor, and that is an awful lot of money we're talking about that only a few teams can afford to take that risk. Any team taking Oswalt would already have to take on $6M of contract for 2010 and $16M for 2011. Now Oswalt's camp is demanding that any team that acquires him must pick up that 16M option also. That's 38M and a nice chunk of change!

And by making such a demand, Oswalt has really shortened the list to just a few teams. But I don't think the Cards is one of them any more. The window for the Phillies to win (again) is closing with many of their players reaching the end of their prime years. I say the guy ends up in a Phillies uni before the deadline if he goes anywhere.

OesterPoster
07-24-2010, 09:12 AM
According to this Philly site's update, Oswalt is backing off his 2012 demands.

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/sports/local_sports/072410-big-hurdle-removed-in-roy-oswalt-deal


A change of heart by Houston Astros' ace Roy Oswalt has put the Philadelphia Phillies back in the picture for the All-Star pitcher.

Reports late Friday indicated Oswalt has dropped demands that his 2012 contract option year be automatically honored by his new team. That option was worth $16 million.

TheNext44
07-24-2010, 10:01 AM
According to this Philly site's update, Oswalt is backing off his 2012 demands.

http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/sports/local_sports/072410-big-hurdle-removed-in-roy-oswalt-deal

This makes sense.

He demands a trade, and then makes demands that make it impossible for the Astros to trade him. If he wants out so badly, he should be willing to actually defer money to make it easier, not demand more money.

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 11:24 AM
where are you getting those numbers?

Fangraphs. Fld and UZR show the same numbers across the board.

And, believe it or not, Cabrera averages out well above a late-career Concepcion and Barry Larkin.

Reds Fanatic
07-24-2010, 11:26 AM
According to ESPN the Dodgers are also interested in Oswalt. The Houston owner is reluctant to trade him within the division.

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 11:30 AM
LA would make the most sense for both teams and would likely improve Oswalt's numbers, meaning he puts up great numbers for another year, then cashes in.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2010, 11:37 AM
Yeah, the Dodgers seem like a pretty natural destination for him.

_Sir_Charles_
07-24-2010, 11:38 AM
So when they don't get him, will you buy me a bag of nachos or pretzels or something?

LOL. I actually agree with you. I don't think we'll get him. I was only pointing out that you're posting opinion as fact. That's it.

The Voice of IH
07-24-2010, 11:38 AM
would be nice if he was traded in like an hour or two...won't have to face him then.

TheNext44
07-24-2010, 11:40 AM
Fangraphs. Fld and UZR show the same numbers across the board.

And, believe it or not, Cabrera averages out well above a late-career Concepcion and Barry Larkin.

The advanced fielding stats that are used to judge Cabrera now didn't exist when Concepcion played, and only for the last few years of Larkin's career, and even then they were brand new, and probably not as accurate as they are now.

Really can't compare them defensively using numbers.

Not saying that what you're saying isn't true, but using numbers to back it up just isn't reliable or fair.

_Sir_Charles_
07-24-2010, 11:43 AM
would be nice if he was traded in like an hour or two...won't have to face him then.

Not a chance. Oswalt is currently tied for the Astros club record for wins. He'll get a shot to go for the all time lead against the team he's owned.

TheNext44
07-24-2010, 11:43 AM
The Dodgers have bigger money issues than any of the teams that want Oswalt. That divorce has made it almost impossible for the Dodgers to add significant payroll.

The Voice of IH
07-24-2010, 11:54 AM
Not a chance. Oswalt is currently tied for the Astros club record for wins. He'll get a shot to go for the all time lead against the team he's owned.

yea I know....wishful thinking :p:

nate
07-24-2010, 11:54 AM
The advanced fielding stats that are used to judge Cabrera now didn't exist when Concepcion played, and only for the last few years of Larkin's career, and even then they were brand new, and probably not as accurate as they are now.

Really can't compare them defensively using numbers.

Not saying that what you're saying isn't true, but using numbers to back it up just isn't reliable or fair.

I wonder if eventually, they'd be able to run simulations on game video to measure defense.

If so, it better not come before the flying cars.

I want a flying car!

:cool:

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 11:59 AM
The advanced fielding stats that are used to judge Cabrera now didn't exist when Concepcion played, and only for the last few years of Larkin's career, and even then they were brand new, and probably not as accurate as they are now.

Really can't compare them defensively using numbers.

Not saying that what you're saying isn't true, but using numbers to back it up just isn't reliable or fair.

How, then, are they there? What are they using to put those numbers on the page? If the numbers are there, why can't they be used?

(And they tweak UZR all the time; I assume they re-do te numbers when they find something they like better. Much like baseball-reference.com did with OPS+.

TheNext44
07-24-2010, 12:03 PM
I wonder if eventually, they'd be able to run simulations on game video to measure defense.

If so, it better not come before the flying cars.

I want a flying car!

:cool:

They better hurry up then. :)

Flying Car In 2011. Reserve Yours Now! (http://www.terrafugia.com/)

Brutus
07-24-2010, 12:13 PM
They better hurry up then. :)

Flying Car In 2011. Reserve Yours Now! (http://www.terrafugia.com/)

I just had a George Jetson moment.

mth123
07-24-2010, 12:55 PM
I wonder if eventually, they'd be able to run simulations on game video to measure defense.

If so, it better not come before the flying cars.

I want a flying car!

:cool:

Wouldn't that qualify as the WoTV method that you so often have criticized? Does that mean if I make a jusgement from watching on TV its ok as long as I express it in the form of a table or an equation?

jojo
07-24-2010, 01:00 PM
How, then, are they there? What are they using to put those numbers on the page? If the numbers are there, why can't they be used?

(And they tweak UZR all the time; I assume they re-do te numbers when they find something they like better. Much like baseball-reference.com did with OPS+.

I think he's objecting to you comparing UZR and total zone numbers...

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 08:21 PM
If the UZR numbers and Fld ratings are exactly the same throughout the site (and they are for every player that has both), why coudn't I use the one for both?

Are there examples elsewhere where they're different?

jojo
07-24-2010, 08:40 PM
If the UZR numbers and Fld ratings are exactly the same throughout the site (and they are for every player that has both), why coudn't I use the one for both?

Are there examples elsewhere where they're different?

UZR and total zone are calculated completely differently...they're apples to oranges...

UZR is calculated using play by play data that accounts for location, speed and trajectory and only goes back to 2002. Pre-2002 defensive value is calculated using the Total zone system which calculates a defensive value by data mining retrosheet.

You could compare TZ for Cabrera vs Concepcion during their age 34 years for instance (there is no TZ yet for Cabrerathis season) where Cabrera was -26 and Concepcion was +5 but you certainly couldn't use UZR to compare Cabrera versus Concepcion. Since LArkin's age 35 year was in 1999, you can't use UZR for Cabrera vs Larkin either (his TZ for that year was +12). It's really not fair to compare a 35 yo Cabrera to a 38 to 40 yo Larkin via UZR is it? I'm not sure what the point of that would be.

Truthfully, it wasn't clear to me what you were actually comparing.

hebroncougar
07-24-2010, 08:46 PM
I hope the Cards get him. The Reds can kick the tar out of him some more.:)

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 08:47 PM
The Fld number in the Fangraphs page for each player gives a number (positive and negative). That number corresponds exactly with UZR across random player pages I visited.

Players from long ago (Larkin and Concepcion, for example) have the same Fld column. I merely compared Cabrera's last few years (and his average this season) with both Larkin and Concepcion. Since his Fld rating (and UZR) are better than Larkin's and better than Concepcion's (1980-on), I thought it interesting.

It's not my math, in other words, nor any fancy trickery with words.

Cabrera, according to Fld rating, is better than a late career Concepcion or Larkin over the course of his career.

How is that not apples and apples?

RBA
07-24-2010, 08:51 PM
Not a chance. Oswalt is currently tied for the Astros club record for wins. He'll get a shot to go for the all time lead against the team he's owned.


I thought he was one win behind?

jojo
07-24-2010, 09:09 PM
The Fld number in the Fangraphs page for each player gives a number (positive and negative). That number corresponds exactly with UZR across random player pages I visited.

Players from long ago (Larkin and Concepcion, for example) have the same Fld column. I merely compared Cabrera's last few years (and his average this season) with both Larkin and Concepcion. Since his Fld rating (and UZR) are better than Larkin's and better than Concepcion's (1980-on), I thought it interesting.

It's not my math, in other words, nor any fancy trickery with words.

Cabrera, according to Fld rating, is better than a late career Concepcion or Larkin over the course of his career.

How is that not apples and apples?

Because as explained above, it's UZR-based from 2002 on and TZ -based pre-2002. To compare two players across that 2002 demarcation, one needs to do it via TZ.

The devil is in the details. The way Fangraphs does their dashboard can be confusing given issues like this so clearly, yours is an honest effort IMHO. That said, while it may not be your math, one has to be aware of the potential pitchfork...

jojo
07-24-2010, 09:14 PM
Forget Oswalt.

Work a deal with the Phillies for Werth so that they can then poach Oswalt from the Cards...

Just my two cents...

TheNext44
07-24-2010, 09:41 PM
Forget Oswalt.

Work a deal with the Phillies for Werth so that they can then poach Oswalt from the Cards...

Just my two cents...

Good idea. It's not like SP is such a greater need for the Reds than LF. And it won't take much to get him. He's gone after this season and the Phillies have replacement ready.

PuffyPig
07-25-2010, 02:11 AM
The Reds have beaten the Astros 5 of the last 6 games Oswalt has started, though Oswalthas lost only two of them.

TheNext44
07-25-2010, 02:13 AM
The Reds have beaten the Astros 5 of the last 6 games Oswalt has started, though Oswalthas lost only two of them.

I think we can finally remove the "owned" label for good. It definitely was deserved earlier, but now deserves to be put away.

GAC
07-25-2010, 05:57 AM
I think we knocked a little shine off of him last night. ;)

MattyHo4Life
07-25-2010, 09:05 AM
I think we knocked a little shine off of him last night. ;)

Hopefully that lowered his trade value a little. ;) Maybe the Astros will reconsider that Brendan Ryan offer the Cards supposedly made. :thumbup:

GAC
07-25-2010, 10:57 AM
Hopefully that lowered his trade value a little. ;) Maybe the Astros will reconsider that Brendan Ryan offer the Cards supposedly made. :thumbup:

Hey MattyMo. Long time no post. Good to hear from you guy.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:32 PM
Forget Oswalt.

Work a deal with the Phillies for Werth so that they can then poach Oswalt from the Cards...

Just my two cents...

I was wondering the same thing with all those rumor swirling about. I'm just not sure we could afford Werth.

CTA513
07-25-2010, 12:35 PM
6-12?

Looks like hes become a loser to me.

;)

MattyHo4Life
07-25-2010, 01:12 PM
Hey MattyMo. Long time no post. Good to hear from you guy.

Thanks bro... yeah it's been a little too long. lol

OesterPoster
07-26-2010, 03:37 PM
Rosenthal's latest update a few minutes ago:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/roy-oswalt-deal-looking-unlikely-72610


Oswalt does not want to go to the Phillies in a trade, a source with direct knowledge of his thinking said Monday.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, do not feel confident in their ability to land Oswalt, another source said the previous day.

"I'd be surprised if Oswalt goes (anywhere)," an AL executive said. "It sounds like both he and the Astros are difficult."

oregonred
07-26-2010, 03:54 PM
No way can I see Drayton giving up Oswalt to the rival Cards without a bigger return than any of the other 28 teams in baseball. He's just not going to make it easy for the Cardinals to wave their magic wand. The Stros won't compete in 2011 and 2012, but I betcha McLane in his own bubble world and as a historical hands on and meddling owner thinks they will.

I don't think the Stros are in salary dumping mode (yet). That may change by this time next years as I would expect season ticket renewals to continue dropping into 2011. We are talking about the second largest market in the country with a single baseball team and one with maybe the best economy of any large city in the nation (except DC and maybe Dallas).

MattyHo4Life
07-26-2010, 04:33 PM
I don't see why teams worry so much about trading within their division. If you can get a good offer... then make the trade. After all... if you rip off a team, wouldn't you rather rip one off in your division? lol If you aren't confident that you are making a good trade, then don't do it. I doubt the Cardinals will be able to come up with an offer that will work for both teams. The Astros probably want young pitching, and the Cardinals don't have very many young arms that they can spare. I don't think they would have any problem getting Oswalt to approve a trade to the Cardinals. It's just getting the GM's to agree on a trade that will work for both teams. I agree that probably will not happen.