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Captain Hook
07-22-2010, 09:56 PM
In 73 ABs this year Heisey has looked pretty good.I know it's asking a lot for Dusty to play the rookie a bit more in the middle of a pennant race but .924 is the 3rd highest OPS on the team and imo warrants a bit more attention even if it is in a limited number of ABs.He should at the very least be given the 4th OF spot and start anytime someone needs a rest.

Aside from Heisey's helping out this year I'd like to hear what other's think of his future with the team.I'm very impressed with his D at all positions.He seems to have a very solid if not above average bat and had a good career in the minors.I for one believe he has a good chance of taking over in RF next year.I'd like to hear what others think.

Degenerate39
07-22-2010, 10:00 PM
Do you mean taking over LF? If so then I would agree with you on that one but I'm sure he'll always be the 4th outfielder.

REDblooded
07-22-2010, 10:00 PM
Kid needs to play WAAAY more than he has... Wanna know why this team is on the skids? Gomes is slumping like a mo-fo, and Cairo at 3b stinks.

Pretty much... Play Heisey and Janish more. K? Thanks

The Voice of IH
07-22-2010, 10:04 PM
Heisey is probably the feature left fielder for the Reds (assuming that Stubbs and Bruce control the rest of the outfield) Gomes will probably go the way of Nix, (a major upgrade IMHO) but will play like you want Heisey to play now. The feature of this team has Janish at short, and Mesoraca is probably the catcher within the next three years, and he'll be catching this rotation going into its third year together: Volquez, Leake, Cueto, Wood and Chapman ( Chapman may be in his second year...depending)

another note, this year Alonso will help the big league club, as he comes up as a great bat off the bench (something the Reds have lacked) in the playoff chase/run :thumbup:

mth123
07-22-2010, 10:07 PM
I think the best use of Hesiey at this point is to use him as a main ingredient in a deal for an impact arm. I like Heisey a lot, but I think he'd get exposed with more PT and I have doubts he could OPS north of .775 over a full season. Nice 4th OF, too much of a tweener to be a mainstay IMO. He could be a decent platoon guy.

Captain Hook
07-22-2010, 10:10 PM
Do you mean taking over LF? If so then I would agree with you on that one but I'm sure he'll always be the 4th outfielder.

I did mean LF.

So why is it you think he will always be a 4th OF or do you just mean this year?

flyer85
07-22-2010, 10:11 PM
I think the best use of Hesiey at this point is to use him as a main ingredient in a deal for an impact arm. I like Heisey a lot, but I think he'd get exposed with more PT and I have doubts he could OPS north of .775 over a full season. Nice 4th OF, too much of a tweener to be a mainstay IMO. He could be a decent platoon guy.he's already likely a better player than Gomes (1 war, gomes is 0). Play him in LF, of course that is not going to happen

Degenerate39
07-22-2010, 10:13 PM
I did mean LF.

So why is it you think he will always be a 4th OF or do you just mean this year?

Well this year and probably next year the outfield will be Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce. The year after that I can see him getting the left field position until the guys like Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez are ready. Though I admit I'm not sure when they're expected up or how well they'll do in the upper minor leagues. But both of them have a lot of potential and it's going to knock him out of a position some time or another.

Captain Hook
07-22-2010, 10:15 PM
he's already likely a better player than Gomes (1 war, gomes is 0). Play him in LF, of course that is not going to happen

Is this just a Baker thing or are other managers also as reluctant to give guys that have had some success a bit more of a chance to prove themselves.It's not like Gomes is on fire and a couple bad games from Heisey is going to kill the team.Then again I guess it's better to just hold your breath and keep running Gomes out there every night hoping he gets hot again.

flyer85
07-22-2010, 10:22 PM
Dusty loves the vets and Gomes has that good counting stat (RBI) driven by his over .400 BARISP. 07-09 Gomes hit .237 BARISP. Gomes also has -30 uzr/150

The Voice of IH
07-22-2010, 10:26 PM
Well this year and probably next year the outfield will be Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce. The year after that I can see him getting the left field position until the guys like Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez are ready. Though I admit I'm not sure when they're expected up or how well they'll do in the upper minor leagues. But both of them have a lot of potential and it's going to knock him out of a position some time or another.

I would not be so sure, if Gomes continues to slump as he has recently, I would not be surprised if he becomes a good bat off the bench next year. (though he will be playing more then Heisey is)

flyer85
07-22-2010, 10:27 PM
IMO, Heisey would likely be an improvement at every OF spot.

Reds1
07-22-2010, 10:35 PM
Isn't Gomes leading the team in RBIs and the leading hitter in baseball with RISP and maybe 2 outs. I know some great stat he's #1. If anyone would sit it would be Bruce against lefties, but that defense from Jay is nice. It's a touch call, but Johnny has been a leader and has a lot to do with the reds being in it at this point.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:36 PM
July OPS

Votto - .987
Stubbs - .942
Gomes - .763
Phillips - .667
OC - .657
Rolen - .580
Bruce - .447


Don't believe the hype. Or maybe Cairo needs to see more time for Phillips/Rolen. Or maybe we are looking for the wrong OFer to bench.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:39 PM
Bruce and Heisey should be a platoon. There's not a shred of an argument that says otherwise.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 10:48 PM
Bruce and Heisey should be a platoon. There's not a shred of an argument that says otherwise.

What about Heisey's .710 OPS vs LHPs so far this year? That's gotta be a shred.

Captain Hook
07-22-2010, 10:50 PM
July OPS

Votto - .987
Stubbs - .942
Gomes - .763
Phillips - .667
OC - .657
Rolen - .580
Bruce - .447


Don't believe the hype. Or maybe Cairo needs to see more time for Phillips/Rolen. Or maybe we are looking for the wrong OFer to bench.

Maybe Bruce should sit more often but a .763 OPS isn't good enough imo when you consider Gomes defense and that mark represents his best month of the year besides May when he was red hot.Still, I'm not saying he should be benched, only that he should sit more often in favor of Heisey.It amazes me that Dusty can't find more then 1 start a week if that for the guy.

Falls City Beer
07-22-2010, 10:50 PM
What about Heisey's .710 OPS vs LHPs so far this year? That's gotta be a shred.

Small sample. In a much bigger sample, Bruce is even worse vs. LH.

edabbs44
07-22-2010, 11:00 PM
Maybe Bruce should sit more often but a .763 OPS isn't good enough imo when you consider Gomes defense and that mark represents his best month of the year besides May when he was red hot.Still, I'm not saying he should be benched, only that he should sit more often in favor of Heisey.It amazes me that Dusty can't find more then 1 start a week if that for the guy.

Heisey as a starter: .240/.321/.380
Heisey as a sub: .391/.483/.913
Heisey as a PH: .375/.500/1.063

Maybe there is something to this. Maybe he is another Dickerson circa 2008. Maybe they like the versatility on the bench. Maybe they are looking to deal him for a bigger piece and don't want him exposed and ruin his value.

Maybe they don't project him as a guy with a long-term value here.

mth123
07-22-2010, 11:11 PM
he's already likely a better player than Gomes (1 war, gomes is 0). Play him in LF, of course that is not going to happen

Maybe, but I think he could be used in a deal to get some one more important than either of them.

Captain Hook
07-22-2010, 11:17 PM
Heisey as a starter: .240/.321/.380
Heisey as a sub: .391/.483/.913
Heisey as a PH: .375/.500/1.063

Maybe there is something to this. Maybe he is another Dickerson circa 2008. Maybe they like the versatility on the bench. Maybe they are looking to deal him for a bigger piece and don't want him exposed and ruin his value.

Maybe they don't project him as a guy with a long-term value here.

Maybe he just needs a few more ABs(like I'm suggesting) before we know anything for sure.Like I mentioned in my 1st post it's going to be hard for Dusty to give a rookie more ABs in the middle of a pennant race just to find out what he can do but I would like to see it.

Dickerson 2009 is probably a good comparison of what we along with the front office will know about Heisey going into 2011.Unfortantally for Heisey if things play out the same way as it did that year Gomes or another Corey Patterson type will be named the starter because he's a vet.I know people will point at Stubbs being given the chance this year and say this is a new Reds team with a new way of doing things but something tells me that's how it's going to work out.

reds44
07-22-2010, 11:21 PM
I really can't blame Dusty for not starting him everyday, I just can't. As much as I want him to play everyday, I see why Dusty starts Gomes. The problem is, Heisey isn't even the 4th OFer right now, he's the 5th OFer.

There's no doubt he needs more ABs, and Gomes and Bruce simply aren't good enough to make it so he never plays.

IMO, Stubbs has been the best OFer this year.

reds44
07-22-2010, 11:23 PM
Maybe, but I think he could be used in a deal to get some one more important than either of them.
You don't deal Heisey, IMO. I'd try to trade Gomes in the offseason, if he puts up another year similar to this year he's going to make way more money than he's worth when he becomes a free agent after 2011.

Plus, if God forbid Stubbs or Bruce goes down you're looking at Gomes and Dickerson/Matthews/Nix as your two corner OFers.

WVRedsFan
07-22-2010, 11:54 PM
Bruce and Heisey should be a platoon. There's not a shred of an argument that says otherwise.
Totally agree. Bruce just cannot hit lefties. Sit him and play Heisey against southpaws, or at least try it and see what happens.

Blitz Dorsey
07-23-2010, 12:52 AM
You don't deal Heisey, IMO. I'd try to trade Gomes in the offseason, if he puts up another year similar to this year he's going to make way more money than he's worth when he becomes a free agent after 2011.

Plus, if God forbid Stubbs or Bruce goes down you're looking at Gomes and Dickerson/Matthews/Nix as your two corner OFers.

Wait, we have my boy Jonny signed through 2011? I thought he only signed a one-year deal at the last minute before spring training. You are making my night if this info is true. Gomes is the most-underrated player on the Reds. Even his defense is underrated. It's not good, but if you would read posts on this board, you would think he is the worst defensive LF ever. He's about MLB average if you actually watch games and see other MLB left fielders. Some are better, some are worse and some are pretty much the same. Gomes doesn't hurt you defensively. Doesn't help you, but doesn't hurt you. And he's a solid hitter, great clubhouse guy, comes cheap, etc.

Oh, and I like me some Heisey too. He is flourishing in his current role, but there is no question he needs to see more starts. Laynce Nix should NEVER start. Anytime someone needs a day off in the OF, Chris Heisey's name should be in the lineup.

Then again, we're dealing with a manager who thinks it's a good idea to give our best hitter a day off in the middle of a pennant race with Rolen already out and a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Genius!

The Voice of IH
07-23-2010, 01:01 AM
Wait, we have my boy Jonny signed through 2011? I thought he only signed a one-year deal at the last minute before spring training. You are making my night if this info is true. Gomes is the most-underrated player on the Reds. Even his defense is underrated. It's not good, but if you would read posts on this board, you would think he is the worst defensive LF ever. He's about MLB average if you actually watch games and see other MLB left fielders. Some are better, some are worse and some are pretty much the same. Gomes doesn't hurt you defensively. Doesn't help you, but doesn't hurt you. And he's a solid hitter, great clubhouse guy, comes cheap, etc.

Oh, and I like me some Heisey too. He is flourishing in his current role, but there is no question he needs to see more starts. Laynce Nix should NEVER start. Anytime someone needs a day off in the OF, Chris Heisey's name should be in the lineup.

Then again, we're dealing with a manager who thinks it's a good idea to give our best hitter a day off in the middle of a pennant race with Rolen already out and a right-handed pitcher on the mound. Genius!


There is a club option for 2011 with Gomes

Someone I can see taking more at bats away from Heisey is Chris Dickerson when he comes back...not that I agree but just saying...

Blitz Dorsey
07-23-2010, 01:06 AM
I love it. A club option for Gomes for '11. I can't believe I missed that. I must have been so happy they FINALLY signed him in early Feb that I forgot about the club option part. Thanks for the info guys.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 01:10 AM
Even his defense is underrated. It's not good, but if you would read posts on this board, you would think he is the worst defensive LF ever. He's about MLB average if you actually watch games and see other MLB left fielders. Some are better, some are worse and some are pretty much the same. Gomes doesn't hurt you defensively. Doesn't help you, but doesn't hurt you.

I ask this earnestly, who is worse? Can you name 3? Can you name 10?

I've watched a fair amount of baseball and I've seen a few guys as bad as him, but nobody who I'd feel comfortable saying is worse. His first step is horrible. His routes are poor. He's not the slowest guy, but that's the only thing that keeps him from being a DH.

He's better than Dunn, I'll grant you that. When you compare him to the quality of defense we're used to seeing out there, he's a step up. But is he clearly better than Ryan Braun? Carlos Lee? Manny? If so, only marginally.

We must not be watching the same guy. Don't get me wrong. For a few millions bucks, I like having a guy who has legit 30 HR power around. But considering his difficulties finding 1B and what I believe to be poor defense at an easy position, I would not be happy if he continued to receive 80% of the playing time for the next year and a half.

Chris Heisey is a plus defender who has done nothing but hit when given the chance to do so. He's never produced a wOBA* less than .350 over a full year and is at .392 this year. He's younger and has room to continue to improve. And even if he doesn't, Gomes' .341 wOBA (.803 OPS) is nothing to get excited about.

*wOBA = weighted On Base Average. Same concept as OPS, but with the batting events weighted based on their run values instead of just counting bases and without the whole adding-two-fractions-with-different-denominators issue.

Blitz Dorsey
07-23-2010, 01:22 AM
Manny is the first one that came to mind. Dunn as well, but he doesn't count since he doesn't play LF anymore. Definitely Carlos Lee. Probably Jason Bay. Not Ryan Braun (he's not great but he's better than Gomes). And there are more. Not many more, but my point is that Gomes is not some huge liability in LF. He's not going to help defensively, but he won't kill you either. Makes some surprisingly good defensive plays on occasion as a matter of fact.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 01:29 AM
Manny is the first one that came to mind. Dunn as well, but he doesn't count since he doesn't play LF anymore. Definitely Carlos Lee. Probably Jason Bay. Not Ryan Braun (he's not great but he's better than Gomes). And there are more. Not many more, but my point is that Gomes is not some huge liability in LF. He's not going to help defensively, but he won't kill you either. Makes some surprisingly good defensive plays on occasion as a matter of fact.

Who? You've pointed out 1 "definitely" and 1 "probably". That's two of 27. Unless you've got another 10 in that list, Gomes isn't average. Name 5 more and he's still solidly below average.

Adam Dunn made some "surprisingly good" defensive plays on occasion too. Same with Manny. Every fielder has his good moments. By one measure, Gomes has made 20 plays this year that LF don't tend to get to. But by that measure, most of his peers have made more that -- over 50% more on average. That those plays are "surprisingly" good should be a hint. It's the aggregate performance relative to the aggregate performance of his peers that matters. If a guy surprises you when he makes a good play, he's probably not average.

You say he won't "kill you" out there. I suppose I'd agree with that. Adam Dunn kills you out there. Gomes just leaves you coughing up blood (aka doubles).

Subtract his defense from less offensive value than you might think since it's mostly slugging and you've got a guy who just isn't terribly productive on balance. Again, he's got some value and you can't complain about the price -- but he's a role player, a good bench guy and poor starter.

It seems we just see his defensive value quite differently.

reds44
07-23-2010, 01:55 AM
I'm not a big defensive metric guy, but this is really all that we have.

UZR 150 this year:
Gomes: -30.7
Manny: -14.4
Braun: -15.8
Lee: -11.8

You read that he's the worst defensive LFer ever, because he's REALLY bad on defense. From the little I know about defensive metrics, you need a large sample size. Somebody could argue that it's been a small sample size.

Last year:
-31.3

2008 with Rays:
-24.1

2007 with Rays:
-44.8

Just for comparison, Dunn never posted a UZR 150 below -18.3 in LF with the Reds.

Anyway you slice it, he's beyond awful in LF. Just because he catches what he gets to, doesn't change how bad he is. Next time you go to a game, watch the routes he takes in LF, watch how long it takes him to get to balls, watch how he is around the wall. It's all bad.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 02:15 AM
I'm not a big defensive metric guy, but this is really all that we have.

UZR 150 this year:
Gomes: -30.7
Manny: -14.4
Braun: -15.8
Lee: -11.8

You read that he's the worst defensive LFer ever, because he's REALLY bad on defense. From the little I know about defensive metrics, you need a large sample size. Somebody could argue that it's been a small sample size.

UZR/150 is fine if you're dealing with a few seasons of data and trying to standardize. But with a 1/2 season of data, it's like extrapolating offensive numbers to a full season in the middle of May. It is pretty silly to use at this point.

But to your point, Gomes is at -24/150 in LF for his career. That's not a small sample. By contrast, Dunn is -11/150 in LF for his career and only worse than -20 during his last 2-3 years. Manny was in the -20s as a Red Sock, but Fenway really screws up UZR for LF because it's physically impossible to make many "in zone" plays. He has been in the -18 range during his time as a Dodger.

No matter what stat you use, Gomes defense is pretty ugly. So unless all of those stats are biased against him, missing something unique about his defensive game and treating him unfairly compared to his peers, there's a reasonable consensus that he's not an average LF.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 07:11 AM
UZR/150 is fine if you're dealing with a few seasons of data and trying to standardize. But with a 1/2 season of data, it's like extrapolating offensive numbers to a full season in the middle of May. It is pretty silly to use at this point.

But to your point, Gomes is at -24/150 in LF for his career. That's not a small sample. By contrast, Dunn is -11/150 in LF for his career and only worse than -20 during his last 2-3 years. Manny was in the -20s as a Red Sock, but Fenway really screws up UZR for LF because it's physically impossible to make many "in zone" plays. He has been in the -18 range during his time as a Dodger.

No matter what stat you use, Gomes defense is pretty ugly. So unless all of those stats are biased against him, missing something unique about his defensive game and treating him unfairly compared to his peers, there's a reasonable consensus that he's not an average LF.

I don't doubt that Gomes isn't a huge plus out there. What I do doubt is the magnitude of what the stat is saying.

mth123
07-23-2010, 07:16 AM
I don't doubt that Gomes isn't a huge plus out there. What I do doubt is the magnitude of what the stat is saying.

Amen.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 09:41 AM
I don't doubt that Gomes isn't a huge plus out there. What I do doubt is the magnitude of what the stat is saying.

We can debate magnitude until we're blue in the face and Gomes is still one of the worst defending LF in baseball. Cut the magnitude in half and he'd be worth .5 wins this year instead of none. Woohoo. The bottom line conclusion is the same. He's a role player who can hit a bit, even being a key run producer during his hot streaks. But due to his poor defense (mediocre at best) and low walk rate, he has has limited upside.

By comparison, Heisey doesn't have Gomes' power, but is literally better at everything else. On balance, in terms of likely production, he's not a massive upgrade. I would expect something around league average production (2 wins) from Heisey if he played every day compared to 1 win from Gomes. But Heisey's got upside production potential that Gomes simply doesn't -- and we've seen that difference this year.

jojo
07-23-2010, 09:48 AM
Watching Gomes, I doubt UZR captures the fullness of his defensive voidiness.. :cool:

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 09:52 AM
We can debate magnitude until we're blue in the face and Gomes is still one of the worst defending LF in baseball. Cut the magnitude in half and he'd be worth .5 wins this year instead of none. Woohoo. The bottom line conclusion is the same. He's a role player who can hit a bit, even being a key run producer during his hot streaks. But due to his poor defense (mediocre at best) and low walk rate, he has has limited upside.

By comparison, Heisey doesn't have Gomes' power, but is literally better at everything else. On balance, in terms of likely production, he's not a massive upgrade. I would expect something around league average production (2 wins) from Heisey if he played every day compared to 1 win from Gomes. But Heisey's got upside production potential that Gomes simply doesn't -- and we've seen that difference this year.

I would take issue with the whole "literally better at everything else" part of this post. Sure Heisey has a seemingly nice ceiling, but what is his floor? Heisey's career numbers in the minors are in line with what Gomes has provided in Cincy. But that is a huge difference. Gomes has much less risk than Heisey. Bruce was so much more of a sure thing than Heisey and it is taking him longer than anyone expected.

I'm not sure how much risk you want to take at this point. Start benching Gones for Heisey, Heisey posts a .625 OPS in his time and then what? You don't think that there would be other negative implications? You don't think that the players would be questioning that? This isn't a video game where you just bench guys with zero ramifications.

jojo
07-23-2010, 09:55 AM
I would take issue with the whole "literally better at everything else" part of this post. Sure Heisey has a seemingly nice ceiling, but what is his floor? Heisey's career numbers in the minors are in line with what Gomes has provided in Cincy. But that is a huge difference. Gomes has much less risk than Heisey. Bruce was so much more of a sure thing than Heisey and it is taking him longer than anyone expected.

I'm not sure how much risk you want to take at this point. Start benching Gones for Heisey, Heisey posts a .625 OPS in his time and then what? You don't think that there would be other negative implications? You don't think that the players would be questioning that? This isn't a video game where you just bench guys with zero ramifications.

Gomes has had 1 great month with the bat, 3 months that amount to a replacement level bat and a lousy first half with the leather. That's been his season thus far. Frankly I'm not seeing the risk of trying other options. Left field might actually be the easiest way for the Reds to upgrade.

pahster
07-23-2010, 09:57 AM
Watching Gomes, I doubt UZR captures the fullness of his defensive voidiness.. :cool:

He's pretty bad; much worse than Dunn ever was out there and he doesn't produce at the plate like Dunn did. Gomes' line for the season really doesn't look all that great anymore, especially when you account for his defensive "skill."

jojo
07-23-2010, 10:01 AM
He's pretty bad; much worse than Dunn ever was out there and he doesn't produce at the plate like Dunn did. Gomes' line for the season really doesn't look all that great anymore, especially when you account for his defensive "skill."

Gomes has made me misty eyed for the good ole days when Dunn patrolled his cozy little area within the greater expanse known as left field at GABP...

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 10:02 AM
I doubt the Reds would get much offensive improvement from an in-house LF replacement for Gomes, but I'm starting to support anything that might help run prevention, as it's pretty obvious the Reds are going to be relying on a bunch of guys who don't K anyone and therefore have to have an airtight defense to be effective: Arroyo, Leake, Wood, Cordero, Harang, their entire middle relief corps. Volquez is a K type, but I'm not expecting anything much from him this season, ditto Bailey.

Still, it's like putting a band aid on the hull of the Lusitania.

Reds1
07-23-2010, 10:15 AM
Bruce and Heisey should be a platoon. There's not a shred of an argument that says otherwise.

I agree

nate
07-23-2010, 10:21 AM
Bruce - Stubbs - Heisey would probably be amongst the best defensive OF in the league.

Maybe one of the top surplus value OF as well.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 10:23 AM
Bruce - Stubbs - Heisey would probably be amongst the best defensive OF in the league.

Maybe one of the top surplus value OF as well.

You're probably right. And as I said, the Reds need much more help in the run prevention department than in the runs scored.

Okay, I'm convinced.

pahster
07-23-2010, 10:35 AM
I doubt the Reds would get much offensive improvement from an in-house LF replacement for Gomes, but I'm starting to support anything that might help run prevention, as it's pretty obvious the Reds are going to be relying on a bunch of guys who don't K anyone and therefore have to have an airtight defense to be effective: Arroyo, Leake, Wood, Cordero, Harang, their entire middle relief corps. Volquez is a K type, but I'm not expecting anything much from him this season, ditto Bailey.

Still, it's like putting a band aid on the hull of the Lusitania.

You're probably mostly right, though I'd say that Harang K's enough (6.7/9 IP, plus he doesn't walk anyone) that he doesn't need a ton of defensive help. Wood's done pretty well so far too, striking out almost 8 per 9 IP. Given that his minor league K/9 was 8.4, it's not unrealistic to assume that he'll maintain a good K/9. Cueto has done reasonably well at K'ing batters too, as has Bailey, though who knows when he'll be back (or if he'll even have a spot).

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 10:39 AM
You're probably mostly right, though I'd say that Harang K's enough (6.7/9 IP, plus he doesn't walk anyone) that he doesn't need a ton of defensive help. Wood's done pretty well so far too, striking out almost 8 per 9 IP. Given that his minor league K/9 was 8.4, it's not unrealistic to assume that he'll maintain a good K/9. Cueto has done reasonably well at K'ing batters too, as has Bailey, though who knows when he'll be back (or if he'll even have a spot).

Cueto's K/9 this season is pretty pedestrian. Though I don't think that's a huge problem for him.

It's too early to say with Wood.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 11:01 AM
Gomes has had 1 great month with the bat, 3 months that amount to a replacement level bat and a lousy first half with the leather. That's been his season thus far. Frankly I'm not seeing the risk of trying other options. Left field might actually be the easiest way for the Reds to upgrade.

Wouldn't that be viewed as just randomness? Especially when the guy had only one sub .829 month last year, and it was a .786 month?

Instead of viewing May as an outlier, maybe he is due for some nice months ahead.

jojo
07-23-2010, 11:25 AM
Wouldn't that be viewed as just randomness? Especially when the guy had only one sub .829 month last year, and it was a .786 month?

Instead of viewing May as an outlier, maybe he is due for some nice months ahead.

I think his true talent level is that of a .340 bat built largely on his platoon value as detailed here:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2119806&postcount=651

Against lefties his bat could probably carry his glove as a compromise player. Running him out there against righties is basically putting a replacement level player in the lineup.

Is he better than a wOBA around .300 like his non May performance? I think so but as an everyday player, there is room for upgrade even if he regresses back to his true talent especially given he's going to see a lot more righties than lefties....

Cedric
07-23-2010, 11:36 AM
Cueto's K/9 this season is pretty pedestrian. Though I don't think that's a huge problem for him.

It's too early to say with Wood.

I'm afraid Cueto might be due for a decent regression. I haven't checked his LD rate but it can't be good.

Sorry for posting this.. Didn't remember/realize this was a Heisey thread... Carry on.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 11:40 AM
I'm afraid Cueto might be due for a decent regression. I haven't checked his LD rate but it can't be good.

Sorry for posting this.. Didn't remember/realize this was a Heisey thread... Carry on.

But the point being, guys like Cueto probably need a good fielder like Heisey more than the offense needs a guy like Gomes.

Cedric
07-23-2010, 11:43 AM
But the point being, guys like Cueto probably need a good fielder like Heisey more than the offense needs a guy like Gomes.

Oh I agree. I would be playing Heisey everyday.. Just not expecting Dusty to ever show that kind of vision..

Dusty plays every game like it's game 7.. Kills the staff and kills development of players.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 11:47 AM
Oh I agree. I would be playing Heisey everyday.. Just not expecting Dusty to ever show that kind of vision.

I'm not sure I'd say a move like Heisey for Gomes is visionary, and it's certainly not enough to propel this team to a division title. I think Dusty on balance does plenty enough right.

Really, Heisey for Gomes is just a triage procedure at this point.

Cedric
07-23-2010, 11:51 AM
I'm not sure I'd say a move like Heisey for Gomes is visionary, and it's certainly not enough to propel this team to a division title. I think Dusty on balance does plenty enough right.

Really, Heisey for Gomes is just a triage procedure at this point.

If you are only worried about this year.. Myself? I play the guy who has a future and is better this year.

Vision is thinking about tomorrow without disregarding today.. IMO.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 12:00 PM
If you are only worried about this year.. Myself? I play the guy who has a future and is better this year.

Vision is thinking about tomorrow without disregarding today.. IMO.

If Dusty's biggest sin this season has been to play Gomes over Heisey, then I absolve him.

The real sins lie in not getting Damon in the offseason and Lee at the deadline. This team would be in an entirely different domain right now. As it is, they've settled for some excitement, but definitely a finish that falls plenty short.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 12:10 PM
Question for the Heisey lovers.

What if Heisey had a .600 OPS in his 83 PA's? Would you still be clamoring for him to start? Is it really the .900+ OPS in 83 PA's that has you sold on him?

I understand the defensive argument, and actually agree with the Bruce/Heisey platoon. What I don't understand is why people think he is a .900+ OPS hitter. I know no one has said that directly, but it seems like people are confident that he could maintain the same numbers over a full season's AB's.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 12:11 PM
If Dusty's biggest sin this season has been to play Gomes over Heisey, then I absolve him.

The real sins lie in not getting Damon in the offseason and Lee at the deadline. This team would be in an entirely different domain right now. As it is, they've settled for some excitement, but definitely a finish that falls plenty short.

What in the world does Johnny Damon give you that Jonny Gomes doesn't? You'd rather have Damon at 8M than Gomes at 1M?

Please.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 12:13 PM
What in the world does Johnny Damon give you that Jonny Gomes doesn't? You'd rather have Damon at 8M than Gomes at 1M?

Please.

Higher OB, better defender, better baserunner. He would destroy weak NL Central pitching.

dougdirt
07-23-2010, 12:16 PM
Question for the Heisey lovers.

What if Heisey had a .600 OPS in his 83 PA's? Would you still be clamoring for him to start? Is it really the .900+ OPS in 83 PA's that has you sold on him?

I understand the defensive argument, and actually agree with the Bruce/Heisey platoon. What I don't understand is why people think he is a .900+ OPS hitter. I know no one has said that directly, but it seems like people are confident that he could maintain the same numbers over a full season's AB's.

TRF has actually said that Heisey is a .900 OPS guy until he isn't. Now whether that means he thinks he can be that guy or not, I don't know. Personally, I think Heisey is a .775 OPS guy right about now with good defense.

jojo
07-23-2010, 12:25 PM
You'd rather have Damon at 8M than Gomes at 1M?

Please.

Heck yes. And I agree, Walt, please?

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 12:30 PM
I was under the impression that Damon was a terrible outfielder, which UZR appears to not agree with me.

Still no way I'd rather have him for 8M.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 12:42 PM
My two most strident recommendations (Damon in the offseason/ Lee at the deadline) would have only added a net cost of $9 million to the payroll, and no obligations in subsequent years.

Now imagine those two over what we have. Seriously, Cast, I'd work cheap.

nate
07-23-2010, 12:46 PM
Where can I sign up for Damon @ $8mm vs. Gomes @ $1mm?

Damon is nearing surplus value territory.

Gomes is nearing...well, he has a cool haircut.

:cool:

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 12:50 PM
Higher OB, better defender, better baserunner. He would destroy weak NL Central pitching.

AL Central pitching isn't all that. And, looking on a microlevel, is the one time on base every 3 or so games that huge of an uptick? Esp when you include the SLG downgrade?

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 12:52 PM
My two most strident recommendations (Damon in the offseason/ Lee at the deadline) would have only added a net cost of $9 million to the payroll, and no obligations in subsequent years.

Now imagine those two over what we have. Seriously, Cast, I'd work cheap.

Forgot about the prospects and cost of those prospects.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 12:55 PM
Forgot about the prospects and cost of those prospects.

Damon would have cost no prospects. And seriously, for Lee, who cares about prospects?

.50 points of OBP is absolutely worth it. Honestly, his OB in the NL Central would almost certainly be even higher.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 01:02 PM
My two most strident recommendations (Damon in the offseason/ Lee at the deadline) would have only added a net cost of $9 million to the payroll, and no obligations in subsequent years.

Now imagine those two over what we have. Seriously, Cast, I'd work cheap.

Unless I'm miscalculating, that's some faulty math.

Damon alone would have cost $9M+, and Lee was owed about $4.5M from the time he was traded.

Oh, and the prospects.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 01:04 PM
Unless I'm miscalculating, that's some faulty math.

Damon alone would have cost $9M+, and Lee was owed about $4.5M from the time he was traded.

Oh, and the prospects.

Didn't the Mariners kick in some money for Lee though, like almost 2 million? I thought Damon signed for 8 million, then you have to subtract Gomes' 1 million.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 01:06 PM
Where can I sign up for Damon @ $8mm vs. Gomes @ $1mm?

Damon is nearing surplus value territory.

Gomes is nearing...well, he has a cool haircut.

:cool:

Damon's UZR/150 in a little over half a season is +14. Is he all of a sudden a much better defender in Detroit (at age what? 36 or 37 now?) than he was in NYC, where he was a below average defender? Or is this an example of small sample size in UZR?

I'd say alot of his 1.8 WAR to date can be tied to that unusually high UZR. For you more WAR friendly guys, is this a safe assumption? Or does WAR favor a higher OBP-lower SLG guy?

flyer85
07-23-2010, 01:12 PM
Left field might actually be the easiest way for the Reds to upgrade.and SS.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 01:12 PM
Damon's UZR/150 in a little over half a season is +14. Is he all of a sudden a much better defender in Detroit (at age what? 36 or 37 now?) than he was in NYC, where he was a below average defender? Or is this an example of small sample size in UZR?

I'd say alot of his 1.8 WAR to date can be tied to that unusually high UZR. For you more WAR friendly guys, is this a safe assumption? Or does WAR favor a higher OBP-lower SLG guy?

If you need UZR to determine if Damon is a better defender than Gomes, or even to determine by how much he's a better defender, then you're really missing the forest for the trees.

I like Gomes, and think defense in general is being weighted too much, but there's almost no facet of the game that shows Gomes is a better player than Damon.

flyer85
07-23-2010, 01:14 PM
Question for the Heisey lovers.

What if Heisey had a .600 OPS in his 83 PA's? but he doesn't.

Brutus
07-23-2010, 01:17 PM
Personally, I think Heisey is a .775 OPS guy right about now with good defense.

That's personally about what I would expect from Heisey in a full-time role. I suppose if Gomes only hovers around 800, Heisey would be justified starting considering the entire package.

If Gomes could sustain closer to 850 or better, I would continue running him out there most of the time.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 01:43 PM
I would take issue with the whole "literally better at everything else" part of this post. Sure Heisey has a seemingly nice ceiling, but what is his floor? Heisey's career numbers in the minors are in line with what Gomes has provided in Cincy. But that is a huge difference. Gomes has much less risk than Heisey. Bruce was so much more of a sure thing than Heisey and it is taking him longer than anyone expected.

I'm not sure how much risk you want to take at this point. Start benching Gones for Heisey, Heisey posts a .625 OPS in his time and then what? You don't think that there would be other negative implications? You don't think that the players would be questioning that? This isn't a video game where you just bench guys with zero ramifications.

The thing is, with the defensive different between them, Heisey with a .650 OPS gives you about the save value as Gomes with an .800 OPS. I appreciate that Heisey isn't a sure thing, but we need to stop treating Gomes like he's got some proven value. He's been replacement level or marginally above that. That's not the kind of production you willingly lock yourself into out of fear for some potentially better option being potentially worse. If the last few weeks has shown us anything, it's that this team needs to make an upside play or two.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 01:43 PM
but he doesn't.

He hasn't done much as a starter

jojo
07-23-2010, 01:45 PM
and SS.

Yes. But I don't think that trigger would be pulled. And who would be the upgrade.

nate
07-23-2010, 01:48 PM
Damon's UZR/150 in a little over half a season is +14. Is he all of a sudden a much better defender in Detroit (at age what? 36 or 37 now?) than he was in NYC, where he was a below average defender? Or is this an example of small sample size in UZR?

Yes, but it's similar to the difference in their career UZR/150 (both players have a large enough sample size here) which ranges from -15 to -20 (advantage: Damon) depending on if you compare OF or LF.


I'd say alot of his 1.8 WAR to date can be tied to that unusually high UZR. For you more WAR friendly guys, is this a safe assumption? Or does WAR favor a higher OBP-lower SLG guy?

Well, I was going more for the joke than 100% accuracy. Nevertheless...

I've looked at this with the intensity of my dog Gordy looking at a treat for 5 minutes. Through regression, about the most generous thing I can say about the difference in Gomes and Damon's defense is that, at their closest Damon is only maybe 5 runs better...that's incredibly generous and I don't really believe it. I think it's at least a game and that's still being nice in a "I'd tell you if your fly was open" sort of way.

As far as the bat goes, I think WAR uses wOBA, not OBP/SLG. Damon's a .360 wOBA and Gomes is a .337 guy. Damon's is non-out making driven and Gomes is slugging driven.

Then there are the intangibles. I'm just gonna go out on a limb here and say I think Damon edges out Gomes on any of that stuff. I mean, if Scott Rolen is a proven winner, Johnny Damon most certainly is and then some.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 01:51 PM
For those who like splits, Gomes has hit .274/.348/.495 (.843) vL this year compared to just .275/.310/.460 vR (.770). His career split is .879/.760. As Jojo said, Gomes vR is replacement level at best. While I appreciate the sentiment of getting some of Bruce's time against lefties, he should also be getting much of Gomes' time against righties.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 01:54 PM
Or does WAR favor a higher OBP-lower SLG guy?

When it comes to producing runs, a point of OBP is worth about twice as much as a point of slugging. OPS tends to overrate the offensive value of high SLG, low OBP guys. wOBA, freely available on fangraphs, is a better single offensive rate stat than OPS.

WAR uses the more accurate wOBA to drive the run production part of its calculation.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 02:01 PM
For those who like splits, Gomes has hit .274/.348/.495 (.843) vL this year compared to just .275/.310/.460 vR (.770). His career split is .879/.760. As Jojo said, Gomes vR is replacement level at best. While I appreciate the sentiment of getting some of Bruce's time against lefties, he should also be getting much of Gomes' time against righties.

Heisey was a .799 career OPSer vR in the minors over 1341 ABs. What would you expect him to produce offensively over the long term vR?

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 02:08 PM
Heisey was a .799 career OPSer vR in the minors over 1341 ABs. What would you expect him to produce offensively over the long term vR?

Something like .265/.330/.420 -- a .750 OPS. Given the OBP/SLG balance, basically the same amount of offensive production you'd get from Gomes. Except you'd be getting plus defense instead of minus defense.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 02:30 PM
Something like .265/.330/.420 -- a .750 OPS. Given the OBP/SLG balance, basically the same amount of offensive production you'd get from Gomes. Except you'd be getting plus defense instead of minus defense.

So off the bat, you would generally expect him to perform very similar to how he performed vR in AAA? No dropoff?

Cedric
07-23-2010, 02:36 PM
So off the bat, you would generally expect him to perform very similar to how he performed vR in AAA? No dropoff?

I wouldn't expect much of a drop off. Heisey is very athletic with a great baseball build.

He should get better with age.. Remember also he didn't play great competition growing up or in college correct? There is no reason to suggest he is anywhere near topped out.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 02:41 PM
Didn't the Mariners kick in some money for Lee though, like almost 2 million? I thought Damon signed for 8 million, then you have to subtract Gomes' 1 million.

I think any money kicked in was a "selling" of prospects, and considering the Mariners indicated they liked Smoak a heck of a lot better than Alonso, I can't imagine they would have kicked in money to the Reds, unless they offered up a ton of prospects. Reds made an effort to get Lee, and determined that it wasn't worth trying to one-up the Rangers. Takes two sides to make a trade, and the Rangers wanted Smoak.


If you need UZR to determine if Damon is a better defender than Gomes, or even to determine by how much he's a better defender, then you're really missing the forest for the trees.

I like Gomes, and think defense in general is being weighted too much, but there's almost no facet of the game that shows Gomes is a better player than Damon.

I thought it was clear that my point was not trying to use UZR to determine that Damon is a better defender than Gomes. My point was that a few people on here like to use WAR as their basis for a players monetary value, and that I think that Damon's UZR artificially inflates his WAR for 2010 when you factor in a larger sample size (two seasons previous).


Yes, but it's similar to the difference in their career UZR/150 (both players have a large enough sample size here) which ranges from -15 to -20 (advantage: Damon) depending on if you compare OF or LF.

Well, I was going more for the joke than 100% accuracy. Nevertheless...

I've looked at this with the intensity of my dog Gordy looking at a treat for 5 minutes. Through regression, about the most generous thing I can say about the difference in Gomes and Damon's defense is that, at their closest Damon is only maybe 5 runs better...that's incredibly generous and I don't really believe it. I think it's at least a game and that's still being nice in a "I'd tell you if your fly was open" sort of way.

As far as the bat goes, I think WAR uses wOBA, not OBP/SLG. Damon's a .360 wOBA and Gomes is a .337 guy. Damon's is non-out making driven and Gomes is slugging driven.

Then there are the intangibles. I'm just gonna go out on a limb here and say I think Damon edges out Gomes on any of that stuff. I mean, if Scott Rolen is a proven winner, Johnny Damon most certainly is and then some.

Can't really disagree with any of this. The intangibles though, I think that's very difficult to judge. By all indications that I've heard, Gomes is a very solid clubhouse guy. I'll admit to knowing nothing about Damon's clubhouse reputation, but I'm not sure I buy the whole "proven winner" thing. He won on the Yankees and Red Sox. Those teams always win. (For the record, despite being an OC supporter, I don't buy the "he's a winner" thing.) I do think a player that has experience on winning teams has a value, but I have a problem saying a guy is a proven winner.


When it comes to producing runs, a point of OBP is worth about twice as much as a point of slugging. OPS tends to overrate the offensive value of high SLG, low OBP guys. wOBA, freely available on fangraphs, is a better single offensive rate stat than OPS.

WAR uses the more accurate wOBA to drive the run production part of its calculation.

I'm an idiot. I knew WAR used wOBA.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 02:44 PM
And to my original point re: Gomes at 1M and Damon at $9M+ (considering the Reds would have to offer more money than Detroit). I work under the assumption that the overall payroll is going to stay around the same. Therefore, in order for the Reds to pay Damon $9M+, they would have to shed $9M from the payroll in other places. It's just not realistic to think the Reds are going to add $9M to their payroll for a past his prime outfielder.

Falls City Beer
07-23-2010, 02:49 PM
And to my original point re: Gomes at 1M and Damon at $9M+ (considering the Reds would have to offer more money than Detroit). I work under the assumption that the overall payroll is going to stay around the same. Therefore, in order for the Reds to pay Damon $9M+, they would have to shed $9M from the payroll in other places. It's just not realistic to think the Reds are going to add $9M to their payroll for a past his prime outfielder.


Yeah, it's hard to argue that the Reds aren't penny wise and pound foolish. Sho nuff. :)

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 03:16 PM
I wouldn't expect much of a drop off. Heisey is very athletic with a great baseball build.

He should get better with age.. Remember also he didn't play great competition growing up or in college correct? There is no reason to suggest he is anywhere near topped out.

I think it is fair to expect a rookie to not perform as well in the majors as he did in the minors. To assume that there wouldn't be a dropoff is a bit aggressive.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 03:25 PM
So off the bat, you would generally expect him to perform very similar to how he performed vR in AAA? No dropoff?

I'd call a 50 point difference in OPS a dropoff, but maybe that's just me. The figures I listed represent an across the board decline.

.284 -> .265
.354 -> .330
.445 -> .420

But generally speaking, if players always got significantly worse as they moved up, nobody would be any good once they reached the majors. Heisey is pretty far along developmentally and I'm not aware of any glaring holes in his game that would result in a massive performance decline (unlike say, Juan Fransisco).

jojo
07-23-2010, 03:32 PM
Damon's UZR/150 in a little over half a season is +14. Is he all of a sudden a much better defender in Detroit (at age what? 36 or 37 now?) than he was in NYC, where he was a below average defender? Or is this an example of small sample size in UZR?

I'd say alot of his 1.8 WAR to date can be tied to that unusually high UZR. For you more WAR friendly guys, is this a safe assumption? Or does WAR favor a higher OBP-lower SLG guy?

Most of that 1.8 WAR is due to his bat-he's DH'd alot.

Will M
07-23-2010, 03:33 PM
IMO the in house answer for LF against a right handed pitcher is not Chris Heisey. Nor is he on the 25 man roster. He is currently destroying AAA in his rehab assignment.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 03:41 PM
I'd call a 50 point difference in OPS a dropoff, but maybe that's just me. The figures I listed represent an across the board decline.

.284 -> .265
.354 -> .330
.445 -> .420

But generally speaking, if players always got significantly worse as they moved up, nobody would be any good once they reached the majors. Heisey is pretty far along developmentally and I'm not aware of any glaring holes in his game that would result in a massive performance decline (unlike say, Juan Fransisco).

I was talking about a decline in his rookie year, not throughout his career.

And we were talking about Heisey vR with those numbers, and in 2010 Heisey had a .748 Ops vR in AAA and had a .763 vR in AAA in 2009. I just thought it was interesting that you wouldn't expect to see Heisey's numbers drop vR from AAA to the majors in his rookie year. It looks like Gomes is a lock to give us a high 700s vR with upside. Heisey, IMO, is a .750 at the very best over a sustained period of time.

reds44
07-23-2010, 03:44 PM
IMO the in house answer for LF against a right handed pitcher is not Chris Heisey. Nor is he on the 25 man roster. He is currently destroying AAA in his rehab assignment.
I'm not even sure if he's going to be on the roster after his rehab stint, though. He should be, but for whatever reason the Reds love Nix.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 03:44 PM
IMO the in house answer for LF against a right handed pitcher is not Chris Heisey. Nor is he on the 25 man roster. He is currently destroying AAA in his rehab assignment.

Oh dear God.

Will M
07-23-2010, 03:53 PM
Oh dear God.

Dickerson's career line:
274 avg
367 obp
421 slg
789 ops

vs RHP (2007-2009) his OPS was 845

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 04:02 PM
Dickerson's career line:
274 avg
367 obp
421 slg
789 ops

vs RHP (2007-2009) his OPS was 845

Take away the freak 2007 and normalize his babip and what do you get?

Redsfan320
07-23-2010, 04:29 PM
^^^
I would guess edabbs means 2008, CDick didn't make his debut till then.

320

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 04:34 PM
^^^
I would guess edabbs means 2008, CDick didn't make his debut till then.

320

Yeah, and I assume the stat line referenced was 2008-10

Will M
07-23-2010, 04:36 PM
Yeah, and I assume the stat line referenced was 2008-10

it wasn't. i couldn't find his career splits. espn had "three years splits" from 2007-2009 which in Chris's case is really 2008-2009.

RedsManRick
07-23-2010, 04:44 PM
I was talking about a decline in his rookie year, not throughout his career.

And we were talking about Heisey vR with those numbers, and in 2010 Heisey had a .748 Ops vR in AAA and had a .763 vR in AAA in 2009. I just thought it was interesting that you wouldn't expect to see Heisey's numbers drop vR from AAA to the majors in his rookie year. It looks like Gomes is a lock to give us a high 700s vR with upside. Heisey, IMO, is a .750 at the very best over a sustained period of time.

It's impossible for Heisey to be any better in the majors than he was over a relatively small AAA sample and unlikely that he'd perform within 50 points of his career split? But Gomes is a lock for "high 700s" despite a career .760 split?

Heisey is still improving. Gomes is at or past his peak. This is Heisey's rookie year and I'd say so far, so good. The upper and lower bounds you you describe simply don't seem to come logically from the data we've looked at. In any event, I think general variability suggests a lot more overlap of possible offensive performance outcomes than you'd think when citing mere single point mean projections.

But even then, even if we're talking about a 75 point OPS split, the difference defensively STILL makes Heisey at least a good as an option. You basically have to stack every single interpretation of the data in Gomes favor to make his case.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 04:53 PM
If you don't use Gomes' injury years his vR numbers look a whole lot different. His vR OPS since he landed is better than you give him credit for.

And I am speaking only about this year. The discussion is around giving Heisey more time at the expense of Gomes. I think Heisey has a bright future, but in the middle of the race you would be taking a big risk.

Rojo
07-23-2010, 05:39 PM
Take away the freak 2007 and normalize his babip and what do you get?

Can we take away Gomes hot May?

jojo
07-23-2010, 06:08 PM
Can we take away Gomes hot May?


No. You have to take away his other months.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 06:22 PM
Can we take away Gomes hot May?

If it was completely out of line with his career trends and it was unreasonably skewing his career numbers due to sample size, sure.

jojo
07-23-2010, 06:59 PM
Gomes has a career wOBA of .341 and currently has a wOBA of .337 for the season. Maybe this season is what he is give or take?

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 07:07 PM
Gomes has a career wOBA of .341 and currently has a wOBA of .337 for the season. Maybe this season is what he is give or take?

I'm not a buyer of his career numbers due to the seemingly legitimate negative impact that shoulder injury had on him. I'm not sure why this continues to happen. My belief is that Gomes' offensive value is more 2009-10 than cumulative career. So whatever that comes out to is what I think he is, give or take.

jojo
07-23-2010, 08:25 PM
I'm not a buyer of his career numbers due to the seemingly legitimate negative impact that shoulder injury had on him. I'm not sure why this continues to happen. My belief is that Gomes' offensive value is more 2009-10 than cumulative career. So whatever that comes out to is what I think he is, give or take.

Not sure why what continues to happen?

BTW, here is Gomes over the last two seasons: .271/.324/.504, wOBA=.354

Home: .294 /.339/.564, wOBA= .379

Road: .246/.307/.440 wOBA= .327 (below major league average)

So really as long as he faces lefties in GABP and doesn't have to play the field, his last 600 PAs as a Red tells us his true talent level is that of a kind of sorta beast if he isn't dinged the position adjustment for actually not having to play a position (in other words beastly Gomes is still below average overall as a player)...

_Sir_Charles_
07-23-2010, 08:33 PM
IMO the in house answer for LF against a right handed pitcher is not Chris Heisey. Nor is he on the 25 man roster. He is currently destroying AAA in his rehab assignment.

LOL. You mean the guy "destroying" AAA for a whole 12 at bats? :O)

Will M
07-23-2010, 08:52 PM
LOL. You mean the guy "destroying" AAA for a whole 12 at bats? :O)

yes i do mean 'destroying' AAA. 12 ABs. so what. if the guy is hotter than a firecracker get him up here now. Chris does NOT have to prove that he belongs in the show. He has already done that. He just needs to prove he is ready after a long layoff. An OPS of 1.5 in 5 games is enough for me.

The Voice of IH
07-23-2010, 10:14 PM
very short article on why Heisey should play more (not ground breaking though :))

http://www.redreporter.com/2010/7/23/1584053/free-chris-heisey

alloverjr
07-23-2010, 10:32 PM
He'd be my starting LF the rest of the way. Sink or swim and see how he does. I mean, the're doing just that in Center and Right.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 10:53 PM
Not sure why what continues to happen?

BTW, here is Gomes over the last two seasons: .271/.324/.504, wOBA=.354

Home: .294 /.339/.564, wOBA= .379

Road: .246/.307/.440 wOBA= .327 (below major league average)

So really as long as he faces lefties in GABP and doesn't have to play the field, his last 600 PAs as a Red tells us his true talent level is that of a kind of sorta beast if he isn't dinged the position adjustment for actually not having to play a position (in other words beastly Gomes is still below average overall as a player)...

We can play a lot of games with the numbers.

Phillips should only play at home.
Heisey should never start.
Arroyo shouldn't pitch until July.

You know, stuff like that.

But it really doesn't matter. Gomes isn't going anywhere unless he completely falls on his face. No matter what anyone says, Gomes has been worth more than his wOBA or OPS will show this season. Heisey is unproven and I'm not sure that any manager in baseball would make that move at this point in the season. Gomes would need to completely force his way out of the lineup.

jojo
07-23-2010, 11:25 PM
We can play a lot of games with the numbers.

Or one could be completely unbiased and not cut them up into segments until they support a favored conclusion....

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 11:30 PM
Or one could be completely unbiased and not cut them up into segments until they support a favored conclusion....


Not sure why what continues to happen?

BTW, here is Gomes over the last two seasons: .271/.324/.504, wOBA=.354

Home: .294 /.339/.564, wOBA= .379

Road: .246/.307/.440 wOBA= .327 (below major league average)

So really as long as he faces lefties in GABP and doesn't have to play the field, his last 600 PAs as a Red tells us his true talent level is that of a kind of sorta beast if he isn't dinged the position adjustment for actually not having to play a position (in other words beastly Gomes is still below average overall as a player)...

?

jojo
07-24-2010, 08:22 AM
?

I thought the point was pretty clear that even cherry picking the last two half seasons worth of Gomes' playing time wasn't the panacea that was being suggested. While just focusing upon Gomes as a Red is an arbitrary standard for estimating his true talent, looking at his H/A splits over that time is a whole lot less arbitrary and going down the road of slicing and dicing doesn't lead to the conclusion that was being suggested if one takes the next step to try to understand why his numbers as a Red might be what they are.....

But ya, clearly, I think focusing upon Gomes as a Red in order to determine his true talent is a very flawed approach.

edabbs44
07-24-2010, 01:22 PM
I thought the point was pretty clear that even cherry picking the last two half seasons worth of Gomes' playing time wasn't the panacea that was being suggested. While just focusing upon Gomes as a Red is an arbitrary standard for estimating his true talent, looking at his H/A splits over that time is a whole lot less arbitrary and going down the road of slicing and dicing doesn't lead to the conclusion that was being suggested if one takes the next step to try to understand why his numbers as a Red might be what they are.....

But ya, clearly, I think focusing upon Gomes as a Red in order to determine his true talent is a very flawed approach.

It is also flawed to use years with extenuating circumstances in any calculation of worth or as a way to project the future.

Kind of like currently valuing a guy like Delmon Young on his career numbers.

WebScorpion
07-24-2010, 01:53 PM
He'd be my starting LF the rest of the way. Sink or swim and see how he does. I mean, the're doing just that in Center and Right.
Because we are doing it in center and right is the very reason I'd hesitate to do it in left also. I can understand taking our lumps with a few young guys in an effort to develop them for the future, but you can't really expect success if you do it at every position.
I really, really like Heisey. I think he's a guy who has learned to get every ounce of performance out of the tools he's been given. He's an incredibly hard worker who does all the little things right and has become a complete player. He hasn't had the opportunity to show it yet, but he's got all the tools to be an all-star caliber player someday. He just needs some experience against major league competition. That said, I think next year is his year...I think he might be our nasty little surprise off the bench for the post-season this year. (Think the Red Sox' Bernie Carbo in the '75 Series) Of course, if there's an injury anywhere in our outfield, he's my guy.
The way I see it, he's a right-handed Dickerson plus a little more power and without the injuries.

jojo
07-24-2010, 01:55 PM
It is also flawed to use years with extenuating circumstances in any calculation of worth or as a way to project the future.

Kind of like currently valuing a guy like Delmon Young on his career numbers.

A player's history is his history (one doesn't get to pick and choose what to exclude and include). Projection systems can handle Young pretty easily and to the extent that he really has had a breakout season, they'll be self correcting.

But honing back onto the topic at hand, projection systems seem to be handling Gomes pretty well so far this year as here is a comparison of what a survey of Zips,Marcels, James, and CHONE thought he'd be this season and what Gomes has been thus far:

projection: .246/.330/.479; OPS=.809; wOBA= .349
actual so far: .274/.324/.468; OPS=.792; wOBA=.336

Im squinting really hard to see flaws and thinking maybe it'll take a microscope...

edabbs44
07-24-2010, 02:12 PM
A player's history is his history (one doesn't get to pick and choose what to exclude and include). Projection systems can handle Young pretty easily and to the extent that he really has had a breakout season, they'll be self correcting.

But honing back onto the topic at hand, projection systems seem to be handling Gomes pretty well so far this year as here is a comparison of what a survey of Zips,Marcels, James, and CHONE thought he'd be this season and what Gomes has been thus far:

projection: .246/.330/.479; OPS=.809; wOBA= .349
actual so far: .274/.324/.468; OPS=.792; wOBA=.336

Im squinting really hard to see flaws and thinking maybe it'll take a microscope...

I'm not sure when we moved into a discussion of projection systems. Here's the post that I have been responding to.



Gomes has a career wOBA of .341 and currently has a wOBA of .337 for the season. Maybe this season is what he is give or take?


I've been saying that it may be flawed to use career numbers when there are circumstances which may have impacted those career statistics, either positively or negatively. That's all. It's not too complicated.

jojo
07-24-2010, 04:06 PM
I'm not sure when we moved into a discussion of projection systems. Here's the post that I have been responding to.



I've been saying that it may be flawed to use career numbers when there are circumstances which may have impacted those career statistics, either positively or negatively. That's all. It's not too complicated.

You're absolutely right that it's not complicated at all. He is what he is and there is no need to turn to an extremely complex calculus of estimating which shoulder hurt when and then slice and dice the back of his baseball card in order to reveal the true Gomes.

If someone wants to get a little technical however, projections systems peg him pretty closely.

On the other hand, your shoulder metric seems to need a visit to a physical therapist..... :cool:

wolfboy
07-24-2010, 04:32 PM
I've been saying that it may be flawed to use career numbers when there are circumstances which may have impacted those career statistics, either positively or negatively. That's all. It's not too complicated.

It seems to me that the only way to account for those circumstances is to use more data, not less. In other words, isolated circumstances are normalized by viewing a bigger sample - here, a player's career numbers. In that regard, I don't see how it's flawed to use career numbers, only logical.

Another point: projections systems are just that - a projection. They aren't a prediction. I think of a projection like a weather forecast. It's pretty reliable to tell you that a storm's about to come through, but it won't tell you if lightning is going to hit your neighbor's house. Likewise, you shouldn't look at a projection as a statement of what is going to happen, but rather a picture of what's likely to happen. Career years, breakout years and cliff dives are pretty hard to predict with any certainty.

Captain Hook
07-25-2010, 01:01 AM
.297/.384/.595/.978 as of right now.Not too bad for being the teams 5th outfielder.I know,he will regress to his norm of something but since he's never been in the bigs who knows.Can he please just get some more ABs until that happens?

oregonred
07-25-2010, 01:12 AM
Love Heisey's all around game and demeanor. Glad to see his value increasing and thank goodness he wasn't tossed in a deal (yet) as an add-on. At least his market value is more apparent now.

Heisey should be starting at least twice a week and ditto for Janish. But, most of us here are on board with those obvious improvements.

reds44
07-25-2010, 01:26 AM
At worst, he's going to be a weapon off the bench down the stretch. He's a threat to come in and launch at any moment.

And we also know we have an extra bat to DH if we got to the World Series (I know, mind blowing).

Caveat Emperor
07-25-2010, 03:06 AM
Detroit just lost Magglio Ordonez for 6 weeks. Seems like there might be a deal to be made, if the Reds are thinking about selling on Heisey...

mth123
07-25-2010, 03:24 AM
Detroit just lost Magglio Ordonez for 6 weeks. Seems like there might be a deal to be made, if the Reds are thinking about selling on Heisey...

For what? Not gonna get Verlander, Porcello, Scherzer, Damon, Boesch, Jackson or Cabrera. Zumaya is hurt. They don't really have anything else that would help the Reds.

GAC
07-25-2010, 07:12 AM
Isn't it ironic that the only reason that Heisey is up here is because CDick went down? Now that's a good thing from the standpoint that Heisey got some ML exposure, even if it has been limited, and may answer some future questions for us as far as the OF goes.

Captain Hook
08-03-2010, 02:03 AM
It seems to be fairly often that RZ is a step ahead of the Reds front office.

So who thinks Heisey is the Reds new starting CF?:thumbup:

That said I don't think Chris has the kind of strangle hold on the position that would take a 1 for a million slump for Dusty to get him out of there but I think we'll be seeing a lot of Mr. Heisey from here on out.

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 11:00 AM
It seems to be fairly often that RZ is a step ahead of the Reds front office.

So who thinks Heisey is the Reds new starting CF?:thumbup:

That said I don't think Chris has the kind of strangle hold on the position that would take a 1 for a million slump for Dusty to get him out of there but I think we'll be seeing a lot of Mr. Heisey from here on out.

Granted this is a small sample size but this is Heisey's line as a starter .238/.314/.413. When given the chance to start he really hasn't run away with the job. In fact most of the damage Heisey has done has been coming off the bench. I just don't think the Heisey to CF is as clear cut as many Heisey fans think it is.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 11:49 AM
Drafted the same year, Heisey has been better than Stubbs all throughout the minors (at every stop) and appears to have the edge on him in the bigs as well.

I'm not sure what the rationale is for keeping Stubbs in there ahead of him. Is Stubbs that much better defensively? Could it be as simple as Stubbs was drafted #1 and Heisey was a 17th rounder? I would hate to think that plays a part.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 11:52 AM
Drafted the same year, Heisey has been better than Stubbs all throughout the minors (at every stop) and appears to have the edge on him in the bigs as well.

I'm not sure what the rationale is for keeping Stubbs in there ahead of him. Is Stubbs that much better defensively? Could it be as simple as Stubbs was drafted #1 and Heisey was a 17th rounder? I would hate to think that plays a part.

I would bet that it played a part

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2010, 12:33 PM
Of course it plays a part -- when you're talking about predicting future production, the guy with the pedigree is always going to have the edge on the guy without one.

guttle11
08-03-2010, 12:35 PM
Detroit just lost Magglio Ordonez for 6 weeks. Seems like there might be a deal to be made, if the Reds are thinking about selling on Heisey...

Not sure Heisey would pass waivers anyway. Not many teams would risk letting a ridiculously cheap bench upgrade hit the open market.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 12:37 PM
Of course it plays a part -- when you're talking about predicting future production, the guy with the pedigree is always going to have the edge on the guy without one.

Well then I guess I wonder at what point does reality take over for projection?

Heisey has been better for 5 seasons now.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 12:39 PM
Not sure Heisey would pass waivers anyway. Not many teams would risk letting a ridiculously cheap bench upgrade hit the open market.


And I'm not sure why a team such as the Reds, with offensive struggles in the OF would get rid of a young, cheap, talented bat.

JaxRed
08-03-2010, 12:47 PM
Heisey would never pass waivers right now. He'd be grabbed in a heartbeat.

pedro
08-03-2010, 02:00 PM
Detroit just lost Magglio Ordonez for 6 weeks. Seems like there might be a deal to be made, if the Reds are thinking about selling on Heisey...

I can't see that happening. I think Heisey is starting in LF (or CF) for the Reds next year.

RichRed
08-03-2010, 02:04 PM
Granted this is a small sample size but this is Heisey's line as a starter .238/.314/.413. When given the chance to start he really hasn't run away with the job. In fact most of the damage Heisey has done has been coming off the bench. I just don't think the Heisey to CF is as clear cut as many Heisey fans think it is.

You said it yourself - 70 PAs as a starter. But the kid passes the eye test so far and he's produced at every level. It's past time to find out what he's really made of.

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 02:18 PM
You said it yourself - 70 PAs as a starter. But the kid passes the eye test so far and he's produced at every level. It's past time to find out what he's really made of.

But when given a chance he hasn't taken the job and run with it. He has been given his fair share of starts and done nothing with them. When you are a young player you need to take advantage of your starts. He may have produced at every level but this isn't AAA and the Reds are in the middle of a playoff race. Its nice that you can exploit a bad Pittsburgh team but if Heisey is given a chance to start he needs to produce against the best.

nate
08-03-2010, 02:22 PM
You said it yourself - 70 PAs as a starter. But the kid passes the eye test so far and he's produced at every level. It's past time to find out what he's really made of.

Yep. I can find a split of 70 PAs for just about every player that looks that bad or worse. It means next to nothing.

Let the kid play and accumulate enough reps to see where he's at.

HokieRed
08-03-2010, 02:23 PM
How many of those PA's as a starter were when he first arrived?

RichRed
08-03-2010, 02:28 PM
But when given a chance he hasn't taken the job and run with it. He has been given his fair share of starts and done nothing with them. When you are a young player you need to take advantage of your starts. He may have produced at every level but this isn't AAA and the Reds are in the middle of a playoff race. Its nice that you can exploit a bad Pittsburgh team but if Heisey is given a chance to start he needs to produce against the best.

If you want to use 18 games (that's how many he's started) to conclude that he's "done nothing," you should be comforted to know that in his last 6 starts, he's gone 7 for 21 with 2 HRs. Looks to me like he's starting to take advantage of those opportunities.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 02:29 PM
But when given a chance he hasn't taken the job and run with it. He has been given his fair share of starts and done nothing with them. When you are a young player you need to take advantage of your starts. He may have produced at every level but this isn't AAA and the Reds are in the middle of a playoff race. Its nice that you can exploit a bad Pittsburgh team but if Heisey is given a chance to start he needs to produce against the best.

I'm sorry but I completely disagree with this logic. When exactly has Stubbs "produced against the best?" The best guy proves it over the long haul.. Not over extreme small sample sizes.

Heisey has outperformed Stubbs at every level and is now. When are the excuses going to end?

RichRed
08-03-2010, 02:37 PM
How many of those PA's as a starter were when he first arrived?

At a quick glance:

First 9 starts - 5 for 32 with 4 BBs

Last 9 starts - 10 for 31 with 2 BBs

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 02:42 PM
If you want to use 18 games (that's how many he's started) to conclude that he's "done nothing," you should be comforted to know that in his last 6 starts, he's gone 7 for 21 with 2 HRs. Looks to me like he's starting to take advantage of those opportunities.

Is it that much to ask that an unproven rookie proves himself before we anoint him the next starting CF? I want a young player to prove himself, to prove he deserves that starting gig. Up until this point in the season Heisey has been abysmal when given the chance to start.

As for Stubbs that was an organization decision. Throughout the minors they kept him in CF instead of Heisey. They kept Stubbs about a year ahead of Heisey each step of the way. I don't know why they did that, but as of now I don't have a big issue with it.

To me Heisey hasn't passed the eye test. He reminds me of a Denorfia or Dickerson type player. A guy who has garnered a tremendous amount of support from RZ but is more of a 4th OF than anything else. Hopefully he proves me wrong because the Reds can use an upgrade this season in CF but I am not writing off Stubbs just yet.

reds44
08-03-2010, 02:46 PM
Is it that much to ask that an unproven rookie proves himself before we anoint him the next starting CF? I want a young player to prove himself, to prove he deserves that starting gig. Up until this point in the season Heisey has been abysmal when given the chance to start.

As for Stubbs that was an organization decision. Throughout the minors they kept him in CF instead of Heisey. They kept Stubbs about a year ahead of Heisey each step of the way. I don't know why they did that, but as of now I don't have a big issue with it.

To me Heisey hasn't passed the eye test. He reminds me of a Denorfia or Dickerson type player. A guy who has garnered a tremendous amount of support from RZ but is more of a 4th OF than anything else. Hopefully he proves me wrong because the Reds can use an upgrade this season in CF but I am not writing off Stubbs just yet.
Difference between Heisey, Denorfia, and Dickerson:
Heisey has 7 homers in 102 career ABs to go along with his .372 OBP
Dickerson and Denorfia have no power.

VR
08-03-2010, 02:48 PM
Heisey would never pass waivers right now. He'd be grabbed in a heartbeat.

Putting Gomes out there is what I'd prefer.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 02:48 PM
Is it that much to ask that an unproven rookie proves himself before we anoint him the next starting CF? I want a young player to prove himself, to prove he deserves that starting gig. Up until this point in the season Heisey has been abysmal when given the chance to start.

Who said anything about annoint? Kid is good. He deserves starts over a struggling Stubbs. Heck, he's been better than Stubbs his entire pro career.

And he has proven himself when given a chance. Small sample size, but so far so good.

How are you going to know, anyway, unless he gets more opportunities?

I'm not understanding your logic in this debate.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 02:48 PM
Difference between Heisey, Denorfia, and Dickerson:
Heisey has 7 homers in 102 career ABs to go along with his .372 OBP
Dickerson and Denorfia have no power.

It's just odd. The last thing I think of with Heisey is Brady Clark or Chris Denorfia.

He has a really good baseball build and he power/plate approach with above average defense. What else do people want from the guy?

Stubbs passes the "eye test" and Heisey doesn't? I must need new glasses.

reds44
08-03-2010, 02:50 PM
It's just odd. The last thing I think of with Heisey is Brady Clark or Chris Denorfia.

He has a really good baseball build and he power/plate approach with above average defense. What else do people want from the guy?

Stubbs passes the "eye test" and Heisey doesn't? I must need new glasses.
Yeah Heisey is built like a tank. I see no reason why he can't hit for some power over his career.

SSS but he's high average, high OBP, high power, solid speed, and good defense. There's not a lot else you need.

Blitz Dorsey
08-03-2010, 02:54 PM
Glad Dusty finally decided to listen to me and make Heisey the starting CF over Stubbs. Oh, I shouldn't get too used to it? Darnit.

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 02:56 PM
Who said anything about annoint? Kid is good. He deserves starts over a struggling Stubbs. Heck, he's been better than Stubbs his entire pro career.

And he has proven himself when given a chance. Small sample size, but so far so good.

How are you going to know, anyway, unless he gets more opportunities?

I'm not understanding your logic in this debate.

But when given the chance to start he has put poor numbers. That is my issue with him right now. Kid is good, well except when called upon to start. I don't know why that is but until he proves that he can post more than an OPS + of 55 in the starting lineup he doesn't belong there. Maybe now is his chance.

RichRed
08-03-2010, 03:11 PM
But when given the chance to start he has put poor numbers.

Except that he hasn't, at least recently.

And I'm with BuckeyeRedleg: I'm not anointing anyone and I'm not giving up on Stubbs. But Heisey deserves his chance because so far he's produced when called upon.

Patrick Bateman
08-03-2010, 03:14 PM
At this point the question to me is more Gomes vs. Stubbs.

Using Gomes hurts us defensively in two positions, and his bat isn't great either. Stubbs, assuming a normalish .700 OPS is probably more valuable on an everday basis than Gomes. But ya, Heisey needs to be in the line-up somewhere at this point until he proves otherwise.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2010, 03:24 PM
Heisey would never pass waivers right now. He'd be grabbed in a heartbeat.

I threw the thought out there back in July before the deadline. Obviously Heisey would never pass waivers now.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2010, 03:25 PM
My everyday outfield would be Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce until the Reds can upgrade. On days that Bruce needs a day off, move Heisey to RF and start Gomes in LF.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 03:28 PM
At this point the question to me is more Gomes vs. Stubbs.

Using Gomes hurts us defensively in two positions, and his bat isn't great either. Stubbs, assuming a normalish .700 OPS is probably more valuable on an everday basis than Gomes. But ya, Heisey needs to be in the line-up somewhere at this point until he proves otherwise.

Yeah, the more I think about it, Heisey should be in LF over Gomes.

With his D and speed (SB's), I'll take a 700-ish OPS from Stubbs in CF. For now.

11larkin11
08-03-2010, 03:28 PM
The 4th OF in Cincinnati I like like the backup QB in the NFL

Cedric
08-03-2010, 03:45 PM
The 4th OF in Cincinnati I like like the backup QB in the NFL

Yep.. We are all just blabbering idiots that want change for change.

Disregard any information we put out there and disregard Heisey's play..

Since when did the "other side of the coin guy" become so damn prevalent around here? Debate why Heisey shouldn't play.. Don't debate our intelligence.

Ron Madden
08-03-2010, 04:05 PM
My everyday outfield would be Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce until the Reds can upgrade. On days that Bruce needs a day off, move Heisey to RF and start Gomes in LF.

That's exactly the way I would play it.

That upgrade might be Dickerson in CF replacing Stubbs.

RedsManRick
08-03-2010, 04:38 PM
My everyday outfield would be Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce until the Reds can upgrade. On days that Bruce needs a day off, move Heisey to RF and start Gomes in LF.

Me too. Except I'd release Nix and have Dickerson platoon with Stubbs. I know the guys aren't hitting, but at least those guys all bring defensive value. Gomes is absolutely killing us right now and there's no longer term value of getting him PA like there is with Hesiey & Stubbs. He is what he is.

pedro
08-03-2010, 04:49 PM
Me too. Except I'd release Nix and have Dickerson platoon with Stubbs. I know the guys aren't hitting, but at least those guys all bring defensive value. Gomes is absolutely killing us right now and there's no longer term value of getting him PA like there is with Hesiey & Stubbs. He is what he is.

I'm on board for that. Nix will make it through waivers anyway so it;s not like there's any risk IMO.

Ghosts of 1990
08-03-2010, 05:07 PM
My everyday outfield would be Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce until the Reds can upgrade. On days that Bruce needs a day off, move Heisey to RF and start Gomes in LF.

This.

Bruce plays 75% of the time against lefties, and always against RHP.

Heisey plays LF and Stubbs in center on those nights against a RHP. The Reds are hoping that the Gomes from May and June returns, when it's quite possible we don't see that player again; as it hadn't been seen in his whole career previous to that.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 07:17 PM
Yep. I can find a split of 70 PAs for just about every player that looks that bad or worse. It means next to nothing.

Let the kid play and accumulate enough reps to see where he's at.

I think Stubbs has forced the issue but let's not forget that this team is in a pennant race, this is t spring training or April 15th.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 07:27 PM
Yep.. We are all just blabbering idiots that want change for change.

Disregard any information we put out there and disregard Heisey's play..

Since when did the "other side of the coin guy" become so damn prevalent around here? Debate why Heisey shouldn't play.. Don't debate our intelligence.

I think Heisey should get more time bit I think we née to temper our enthusiasm jut a tad. The majority of his success has come off the bench in his rookie season. Dickerson had a sick debut also. The league is littered with guys like that. With the recent play of the OF, sure he should see more time, bi let's not act like Heisey has destroyed pitching every chance he has gotten. It might be a whole lot different when the league has seen him twice this season, let alone twice in the same game.

fearofpopvol1
08-04-2010, 02:25 AM
Heisey should be playing more, whether it's in LF/CF/RF...he is hot right now and the rest of the OF is not.

And he plays good defense.

Dickerson is hot in Lousiville too. If I was Bruce or Stubbs, I'd be getting nervous.

redsfandan
08-04-2010, 06:27 AM
Heisey should be playing more, whether it's in LF/CF/RF...he is hot right now and the rest of the OF is not.

And he plays good defense.

Dickerson is hot in Lousiville too. If I was Bruce or Stubbs, I'd be getting nervous.
Yep, I agree.

Anyone know how many options Bruce has left?

bucksfan2
08-04-2010, 09:14 AM
I think Heisey should get more time bit I think we née to temper our enthusiasm jut a tad. The majority of his success has come off the bench in his rookie season. Dickerson had a sick debut also. The league is littered with guys like that. With the recent play of the OF, sure he should see more time, bi let's not act like Heisey has destroyed pitching every chance he has gotten. It might be a whole lot different when the league has seen him twice this season, let alone twice in the same game.

These are my thoughts exactly. I just wanted Heisey to perform when he got the chance to start. He has been doing that over the past few days/weeks so I think he deserves a shot to start more.

I know this won't go over very well here on RZ but when Dickerson comes back I would send Bruce down to AAA. The guy is absolutely clueless at the plate right now. He is being dominated by both right and left handed pitchers. The guy needs a boost of confidence and he sure isn't getting it at the MLB level. I think when you break it down right now Stubbs provides more value to the club right now. Both are strike out machines right and both play above average defense in their respective position. But Stubbs plays better D at a tougher position. Stubbs also can be used as a pinch runner in a late game situation. I would send Bruce down to AAA for 10-15 days in order to get his swing right. The Reds need production out of the RF spot, and right now Bruce isn't producing.

TRF
08-04-2010, 10:13 AM
But when given the chance to start he has put poor numbers. That is my issue with him right now. Kid is good, well except when called upon to start. I don't know why that is but until he proves that he can post more than an OPS + of 55 in the starting lineup he doesn't belong there. Maybe now is his chance.

I love this logic. Until he proves he can start, he shouldn't start.

I thought Heisey was the right choice over Stubbs last year. I absolutely believe he's the better overall player.

But my OF for 2011 is Heisey, Stubbs, Bruce, Dickerson.

Stubbs needs to be sent down. yesterday. He needs to go to Louisville, hit 6th or 7th and concentrate on his power and contact. Put Heisey in CF and strict platoon Dickerson and Gomes.

Chip R
08-04-2010, 10:15 AM
These are my thoughts exactly. I just wanted Heisey to perform when he got the chance to start. He has been doing that over the past few days/weeks so I think he deserves a shot to start more.

I know this won't go over very well here on RZ but when Dickerson comes back I would send Bruce down to AAA. The guy is absolutely clueless at the plate right now. He is being dominated by both right and left handed pitchers. The guy needs a boost of confidence and he sure isn't getting it at the MLB level. I think when you break it down right now Stubbs provides more value to the club right now. Both are strike out machines right and both play above average defense in their respective position. But Stubbs plays better D at a tougher position. Stubbs also can be used as a pinch runner in a late game situation. I would send Bruce down to AAA for 10-15 days in order to get his swing right. The Reds need production out of the RF spot, and right now Bruce isn't producing.


It's a tough decision to do something like that but I tend to agree. Every time I see him up to bat he looks so tight you couldn't drive a needle up his backside with a sledghammer. Perhaps he can relax and a different set of eyes in LOU can help him. He's superb in the field but just lost at the plate. If this was last year, I'd say leave him in there but we're in the middle of a race and the Reds can't afford a black hole in the lineup.

nate
08-04-2010, 11:00 AM
I think the only person who needs to go is Nix. I don't think sending Bruce down is an answer as he's the most productive player in the OF during both halves of an inning. Even if Heisey plays as well as he has been, it simply replaces Bruce's net production with the same. However, if you keep Heisey AND Bruce, you've added net production.

Call up Dickerson and go with a 5-man platoon. Everyone plays 3 out of every 5 games. If you believe in "hot hands" and one exists, let that player play more.

westofyou
08-04-2010, 11:06 AM
Anyone know how many options Bruce has left?

I'm thinking 2

bucksfan2
08-04-2010, 11:07 AM
I think the only person who needs to go is Nix. I don't think sending Bruce down is an answer as he's the most productive player in the OF during both halves of an inning. Even if Heisey plays as well as he has been, it simply replaces Bruce's net production with the same. However, if you keep Heisey AND Bruce, you've added net production.

Call up Dickerson and go with a 5-man platoon. Everyone plays 3 out of every 5 games. If you believe in "hot hands" and one exists, let that player play more.

Bruce is productive at the plate? Thats news to me.

If you send Bruce down to AAA to work out his swing I don't think you lose much putting Heisey in RF. Heisey may not be Bruce in RF, but he still will be above average. Put Heisey in RF, platoon Stubbs and Dickerson, and hope Bruce gets his kinks worked out in AAA.

westofyou
08-04-2010, 11:12 AM
Bruce is productive at the plate? Thats news to me.

If you send Bruce down to AAA to work out his swing I don't think you lose much putting Heisey in RF. Heisey may not be Bruce in RF, but he still will be above average. Put Heisey in RF, platoon Stubbs and Dickerson, and hope Bruce gets his kinks worked out in AAA.

And keep Gomes in LF?

With his iron glove and post AS ops of .626?

I'd prefer Bruce's glove in RF myself, Gomes is also a liability and should also be lumped into the same group as Stubbs and Bruce at this juncture.

RichRed
08-04-2010, 11:18 AM
I'd prefer Bruce's glove in RF myself, Gomes is also a liability and should also be lumped into the same group as Stubbs and Bruce at this juncture.

Sad but true.

bucksfan2
08-04-2010, 11:24 AM
And keep Gomes in LF?

With his iron glove and post AS ops of .626?

I'd prefer Bruce's glove in RF myself, Gomes is also a liability and should also be lumped into the same group as Stubbs and Bruce at this juncture.

I see something a little different. Gomes is just missing in his at bats. He isn't the black hole at the plate that either Bruce or Stubbs are right now. I have much more faith that Gomes will get hot during the last two months of the season than I do Bruce. Bruce is completely lost at the plate right now.

Patrick Bateman
08-04-2010, 11:44 AM
Gloves don't slump. Even when Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey aren't hitting, they are still doing something.

At this point, we have to prey a guy like Bruce can get the bat going up here, because the rest of his game is far too valuable to send down. The Reds are staying afloat right now because they are playing amazing defense like the '99 team and getting good relief pitching. The rest of the parts are hit or miss, but our bats are talented enough to put us over the top IMO.

TRF
08-04-2010, 03:26 PM
I see something a little different. Gomes is just missing in his at bats. He isn't the black hole at the plate that either Bruce or Stubbs are right now. I have much more faith that Gomes will get hot during the last two months of the season than I do Bruce. Bruce is completely lost at the plate right now.

What you are seeing is this:

.227 .278 .348 .626

That's his line since the ASB. June: .704 OPS. July: .704 OPS.

He's trending DOWN.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 12:00 AM
What you are seeing is this:

.227 .278 .348 .626

That's his line since the ASB. June: .704 OPS. July: .704 OPS.

He's trending DOWN.

Babip is .250 since ASB. Maybe he is just missing and is due for a bounce back.

sabometrics
08-05-2010, 12:21 AM
Babip is .250 since ASB. Maybe he is just missing and is due for a bounce back.

His LD% is also way down in July and August. I'm thinking chances are that poor BABIP is more a product of poor hitting than it is of poor luck.

bucksfan2
08-05-2010, 10:11 AM
His LD% is also way down in July and August. I'm thinking chances are that poor BABIP is more a product of poor hitting than it is of poor luck.

I don't really see a vast different player right now than earlier this season. The exception is right now he is missing pitches that he would punish earlier this season. I do think that will normalize as the season goes forward. Right now Jonny is getting good pitches to hit and either fouling them back or popping them up. I think you will see him get hot again and take those pitches and hit them hard and out out the park again.

TRF
08-05-2010, 11:02 AM
I don't really see a vast different player right now than earlier this season. The exception is right now he is missing pitches that he would punish earlier this season. I do think that will normalize as the season goes forward. Right now Jonny is getting good pitches to hit and either fouling them back or popping them up. I think you will see him get hot again and take those pitches and hit them hard and out out the park again.

3 months out of 4 he's been below average. I think what has happened is his white hot May has been normalized.

He's not a very good hitter, and he's a bad defender.

Good mo-hawk though.

nate
08-05-2010, 11:19 AM
3 months out of 4 he's been below average. I think what has happened is his white hot May has been normalized.

Verily:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1845_DHOF_daily_full_8_20100804.png


He's not a very good hitter, and he's a bad defender.

2010 wOBA: .334
Career wOBA: .342

Defense: you know his story

This paints an interesting picture for Gomes:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1845_DHOF_season_full_8_20100804.png

My interpretation of this is that he's basically a league average bat aside from the '05 peak. The '08 valley and '09 are the result of a small sample and had they been combined into a single season would probably end up on the league average blue line.


Good mo-hawk though.

Best in the league!

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 11:24 AM
For what it is worth, Gomes has one less RBI and one more HR than Stubbs and Bruce do combined over the last 28 days. His OPS has also exceeded their's by 160 and 260 pts, respectively. I know it is both trendy and cool to single out Gomes but I'm not sure how some can blast Gomes and then say that Bruce has to play through it. That's as biased a statement as can be. Defense included, right now Bruce should be the 3/4 OFer with Heisey and Gomes getting most starts, until otherwise notified.

TRF
08-05-2010, 03:19 PM
For what it is worth, Gomes has one less RBI and one more HR than Stubbs and Bruce do combined over the last 28 days. His OPS has also exceeded their's by 160 and 260 pts, respectively. I know it is both trendy and cool to single out Gomes but I'm not sure how some can blast Gomes and then say that Bruce has to play through it. That's as biased a statement as can be. Defense included, right now Bruce should be the 3/4 OFer with Heisey and Gomes getting most starts, until otherwise notified.

Neither Bruce nor Stubbs is close to being a finished product.

With Gomes, WYSIWYG.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 04:30 PM
Neither Bruce nor Stubbs is close to being a finished product.

With Gomes, WYSIWYG.

We are also in a playoff race. If it means the division, they can finish next year. The guys who will help you win today need to be on the field.

reds44
08-05-2010, 04:40 PM
We are also in a playoff race. If it means the division, they can finish next year. The guys who will help you win today need to be on the field.
Yes.

The question is how much do Stubbs/Bruce's defense close the gap with Gomes' bat.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:04 PM
We are also in a playoff race. If it means the division, they can finish next year. The guys who will help you win today need to be on the field.

How is a guy that posted a .704 OPS for the previous 2 months with a cast iron glove "helping"?

OnBaseMachine
08-05-2010, 05:05 PM
How is a guy that posted a .704 OPS for the previous 2 months with a cast iron glove "helping"?

I'm wondering the same thing. IMO, Jonny Gomes is more of a problem than Bruce and Stubbs. When Bruce/Stubbs struggle, they still provide value with the glove. We can't say the same for Gomes.

KronoRed
08-05-2010, 05:22 PM
How is a guy that posted a .704 OPS for the previous 2 months with a cast iron glove "helping"?

He's magic.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:33 PM
A lot of people don't like monthly splits. I'm not one of those guys. Months have meaning to us as human beings. They represent a fresh start, or the end of a bad stretch. In our minds they are fixed points, and we can define their meaning as flexible or rigid.

Johnny Gomes has come out of a two month nosedive. He may have "started fresh" in his mind 5 days ago. His bat is hot right now, but I wouldn't be afraid to sit him at the first sign of him slipping. Yeah, it's only been 4 games, so keep an eye on him. Doesn't hurt that Heisey has been white hot since becoming the starter. BP, Janish, Votto, Nix, Francisco all stinging the ball. Be nice to see another May like output from the offense. That could seal the deal.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 05:41 PM
How is a guy that posted a .704 OPS for the previous 2 months with a cast iron glove "helping"?

1) never said that Gomes is helping
2) cast iron glove cracks me up, b/c his defensive shortcomings are overrated
3) helping is a relative term, especially when the .704 ops is 50% better than the competition

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 05:43 PM
I'm wondering the same thing. IMO, Jonny Gomes is more of a problem than Bruce and Stubbs.

Right.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:51 PM
1) never said that Gomes is helping
2) cast iron glove cracks me up, b/c his defensive shortcomings are overrated
3) helping is a relative term, especially when the .704 ops is 50% better than the competition



You implied it, or i read it wrong
no they aren't
Heisey was his competition in LF. He isn't better than Heisey.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 06:44 PM
I'm wondering the same thing. IMO, Jonny Gomes is more of a problem than Bruce and Stubbs. When Bruce/Stubbs struggle, they still provide value with the glove. We can't say the same for Gomes.

When Gomes struggles, he has a .700 OPS and still knocks in runs. When Bruce and Stubbs struggle, they hit like they were just pulled out of the stands. There are different levels of struggling and to say that these guys are even close to each other offensively in recent weeks is comical.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 06:48 PM
You implied it, or i read it wrong
no they aren't
Heisey was his competition in LF. He isn't better than Heisey.


Right now, Heisey obviously needs to play. But that doesn't mean that Gomes needs to sit, especially when the other two look like they are hitting from the wrong side of the plate.

TRF
08-05-2010, 07:02 PM
When Gomes struggles, he has a .700 OPS and still knocks in runs. When Bruce and Stubbs struggle, they hit like they were just pulled out of the stands. There are different levels of struggling and to say that these guys are even close to each other offensively in recent weeks is comical.

yeah, no.

June

Gomes 17 RBI .704 OPS
Bruce 12 RBI .825 OPS
Stubbs 10 RBI .610 OPS

July
Gomes 14 RBI .674 OPS
Stubbs 14 RBI .657 OPS
Bruce 5 RBI .508 OPS (reaaly scuffling

In June Gomes was hitting behind Phillips, Votto and Rolen. All had OBP's over .400 for the month. He had more opportunities. Bruce and Stubbs had fewer opporunities, and in June, Stubbs had just as many RBI as Gomes.

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 07:13 PM
The fact if the matter is more about who do you think is going to produce more going forward. I think we know what Gomes' floor is, probably just around .700 or so. What is Stubbs'? Bruce's? From this point on, who are we putting our money on at the plate?

traderumor
08-05-2010, 07:24 PM
The fact if the matter is more about who do you think is going to produce more going forward. I think we know what Gomes' floor is, probably just around .700 or so. What is Stubbs'? Bruce's? From this point on, who are we putting our money on at the plate?Are the Reds facing a Stillwell/Larkin decision here?

edabbs44
08-05-2010, 07:26 PM
Are the Reds facing a Stillwell/Larkin decision here?

No, they are trying to win. If Bruce and Stubbs were "struggling", that is one thing. If you are going to crush the playoff hopes of this team, take a breather and see what's up.

JaxRed
08-05-2010, 07:39 PM
And you are wasting the inexpensive pre-arb years of Stubbs and especially Bruce. You need to send them down, bring up Dickerson and go with a Gomes/Heisey/Dickerson/Nix combo.

Hoosier Red
08-05-2010, 07:47 PM
1) never said that Gomes is helping
2) cast iron glove cracks me up, b/c his defensive shortcomings are overrated
3) helping is a relative term, especially when the .704 ops is 50% better than the competition

Anyone else find it ironic that people are now arguing that LF defense IS important?

I have no problem sitting Stubbs and or Bruce. Right now the best outfield of guys currently on the roster is Heisey, Nix, and Gomes. However you want to play them is fine by me.

Big Klu
08-05-2010, 08:02 PM
Babip is .250 since ASB. Maybe he is just missing and is due for a bounce back.

Bruce is just unlucky.



http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:LZijt0VKNkb8IM:http://blog.nola.com/notesonneworleans/2008/10/medium_schleprock.jpg
"Jay Schleprock"

traderumor
08-05-2010, 08:33 PM
Anyone else find it ironic that people are now arguing that LF defense IS important?

I have no problem sitting Stubbs and or Bruce. Right now the best outfield of guys currently on the roster is Heisey, Nix, and Gomes. However you want to play them is fine by me.I don't think that the argument has ever been "LF defense is not important." I would say the argument has always been the trade off between a player's offense and defense and if there was a net gain whichever way the scales tipped. In other words, it has always been "is the O worth the D" or "does the plus D prevent more runs than the weaker O creates." At least that is what I have seen the discussions center around.

reds44
08-05-2010, 08:36 PM
Send down Stubbs, call up Dickerson.

vsRHP
Dickerson
Phillips
Votto
Rolen
Heisey
Bruce
Catcher
Janish

vLHP
Phillips
Heisey
Votto
Rolen
Gomes
Bruce
Catcher
Janish

Learn it. Love it. Also feel free to give Nix starts in place of Bruce until his hot streak runs out and Bruce heats up.

Mario-Rijo
08-05-2010, 09:44 PM
The fact if the matter is more about who do you think is going to produce more going forward. I think we know what Gomes' floor is, probably just around .700 or so. What is Stubbs'? Bruce's? From this point on, who are we putting our money on at the plate?

If anyone is looking strictly at run production then they obviously don't appreciate how important Bruce is in RF, watch those guys take the extra base and round 3rd heading for home alot more often.

bucksfan2
08-06-2010, 09:52 AM
If anyone is looking strictly at run production then they obviously don't appreciate how important Bruce is in RF, watch those guys take the extra base and round 3rd heading for home alot more often.

Its not like they would be replacing Bruce with Gomes. Bruce in all likelihood would be replaced with Heisey or Dickerson. I don't think the defensive loss would be all that much and the increased offensive production is a must.

TRF
08-06-2010, 10:00 AM
Anyone else find it ironic that people are now arguing that LF defense IS important?

I have no problem sitting Stubbs and or Bruce. Right now the best outfield of guys currently on the roster is Heisey, Nix, and Gomes. However you want to play them is fine by me.

It's important to the overall value. in isolation, LF defense isn't as important as it is in CF or RF. But add defensive shortcomings to a weak bat, and for most of this year, Gomes has had a very weak bat, then yeah, it's certainly a factor.

Hoosier Red
08-06-2010, 10:04 AM
It's important to the overall value. in isolation, LF defense isn't as important as it is in CF or RF. But add defensive shortcomings to a weak bat, and for most of this year, Gomes has had a very weak bat, then yeah, it's certainly a factor.

I understand all of that. I just found it ironic as I said. Gomes doesn't add any value on defense,(especially because playing LF it doesn't matter as much.) Bruce and Stubbs at least add value because they are above average at more important positions. As I said, just found it amusing.

TRF
08-06-2010, 10:07 AM
I understand all of that. I just found it ironic as I said. Gomes doesn't add any value on defense,(especially because playing LF it doesn't matter as much.) Bruce and Stubbs at least add value because they are above average at more important positions. As I said, just found it amusing.

Yeah, I do too. It;s like things aren't important until they are. usually it's a cumulative effect in a negative light. One mosquito bite is irritating. if it happens to be next to a giant scrape... well then it's very irritating.

Gomes bat is a mosquito bite next to road rash (his D).

nate
08-06-2010, 10:47 AM
Anyone else find it ironic that people are now arguing that LF defense IS important?

Seeing that "people" hold every opinion under the sun, no. I really don't think there's been a sea change of opinion on the matter.


I have no problem sitting Stubbs and or Bruce. Right now the best outfield of guys currently on the roster is Heisey, Nix, and Gomes. However you want to play them is fine by me.

To me, that's likely to be one of the least productive combinations given the choices they have.

Roy Tucker
08-06-2010, 11:06 AM
I think at this point you just play who is hot.

Development is all well and fine and certainly has a place in a team's lifecycle. But right now, I think you play who will produce right now (as in, today) as opposed to who might produce in the future.

There is a pennant to be won and winning is the only thing now. Everything else is secondary.

BoydsOfSummer
08-06-2010, 05:52 PM
I think at this point you just play who is hot.

Development is all well and fine and certainly has a place in a team's lifecycle. But right now, I think you play who will produce right now (as in, today) as opposed to who might produce in the future.

There is a pennant to be won and winning is the only thing now. Everything else is secondary.

And for Christsakes take advantage of platoon advantages where you can!

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2010, 06:05 PM
I think today is a great example of why a Heisey, Stubbs, Nix, and Bruce outfield mix makes the most sense. Toss Dickerson in there too if you want to. Not trying to pile on Jonny Gomes, because I really do like him - just as a bench player, not a starter - but today was a perfect example of the importance of outfield defense. Laynce Nix made a great diving catch to save two runs. If that ball drops in, the Cubs score two runs and the Reds potentially lose that game.

Look, I'm willing to sacrifice some defense in left field for a masher. But let's face it, we haven't exactly received great production from our left fielders this season. I think some combination of Bruce/Heisey, Nix, and Stubbs is our best outfield based on players currently on the roster. Gomes can still get an occasional start for Bruce vs a tough lefty. If the Reds can acquire someone like a Luke Scott to platoon in left field, that would be great. For now, Bruce/Heisey/Nix/Stubbs is our best all-around outfield, IMO.

Will M
01-14-2011, 04:53 AM
I have been thinking about Chris Heisey's future with the Reds. He had a great 2009 in the minors. He was not off to a good start in AAA last year but was called up when injuries hit the Reds. He seemed to struggle as the year went on even though his final numbers looked ok (OPS 757). I was kind of expecting him to be traded this offseason as I thought his value to another team as a centerfielder outweighed his value to the Reds as a left fielder. It seems to me that there are three general scenarios for Heisey as a Red.

A) He looks good in Arizona & wins the LF job (and leadoff spot) making both Gomes & Lewis reserves.

B) Gomes gets most of the starts vs LHP & Lewis gets most of the starts vs RHP. Heisey plays when Stubbs and Bruce need a rest, pinch hits & plays late inning defense. This is a 5th outfielder role & I wouldn't expect him to get a lot of ABs this way. He does have the advantage of being a solid defender. Since Gomes is a poor defender & Lewis is just an OK defender the Reds may want the 5th outfielder to be able to play defense. A disadvantage here is that Heisey doesn't get much playing time after not getting much in 2010.

C) Heisey gets sent to AAA. Either because he struggles in Arizona and/or the team wants another lefty bat. When Lewis starts the entire bench is right handed. Hermida could make the team if he has a good spring because he provides a left handed bat to pinch hit. If I recall Hermida isn't the defender Heisey is.

D) Walt pulls a suprise spring trade. I think this is a bit unlikely.

I am curious what other ORG members think about Heisey going forward. What role do you see him playing in 2011 & beyond?

redsfandan
01-14-2011, 07:47 AM
I am curious what other ORG members think about Heisey going forward. What role do you see him playing in 2011 & beyond?



B) Gomes gets most of the starts vs LHP & Lewis gets most of the starts vs RHP. Heisey plays when Stubbs and Bruce need a rest, pinch hits & plays late inning defense. This is a 5th outfielder role & I wouldn't expect him to get a lot of ABs this way. He does have the advantage of being a solid defender. Since Gomes is a poor defender & Lewis is just an OK defender the Reds may want the 5th outfielder to be able to play defense. A disadvantage here is that Heisey doesn't get much playing time after not getting much in 2010.

Edd Roush
01-14-2011, 10:33 AM
Heisey actually seems like the perfect 5th outfielder type to me. Not only is he a plus fielder out of all three outfield spots, but he has a little pop in his bat, too. While it may not be best for Heisey’s development to have him only get 200 PAs next year, I am sure he will not mind collecting the minimum big league paycheck all year. With Stubbs in center for the foreseeable future, Heisey would have to play a corner outfield spot to be a starter on the Reds. I am not sure if he will ever have the power to be a guy who you want to be the starter in a corner outfield spot full-time. Therefore, I think he and the Reds are best suited for him to be our utility outfielder. Heisey should be the first bat off the bench and a good defensive replacement in the outfield. I really think he can thrive in this role and I am pretty happy with the way the bench is shaping up right now.

Kc61
01-14-2011, 11:18 AM
Therefore, I think he and the Reds are best suited for him to be our utility outfielder. Heisey should be the first bat off the bench and a good defensive replacement in the outfield. I really think he can thrive in this role and I am pretty happy with the way the bench is shaping up right now.

Heisey fanned 57 times in 201 official at bats last year.

That's a lot of strikeouts except, perhaps, for a big power hitter, which Heisey is not.

Just watching him last season, I think the pitchers figured out Heisey as the year went on. It's his turn to adjust now and make more contact.

This guy is a gamer and is a valuable man to have as the fourth or fifth outfielder. But he must make more contact.

Redsfan320
01-14-2011, 11:52 AM
With Stubbs in center for the foreseeable future, Heisey would have to play a corner outfield spot to be a starter on the Reds. I am not sure if he will ever have the power to be a guy who you want to be the starter in a corner outfield spot full-time.

As much as Stubbs is penciled in in CF for the foreseeable future, more so is Bruce in RF. Heisey's only shot at a starting job is in LF.

320

Edd Roush
01-14-2011, 12:31 PM
As much as Stubbs is penciled in in CF for the foreseeable future, more so is Bruce in RF. Heisey's only shot at a starting job is in LF.

320

Exactly, my point was that there was no room for Heisey in center. I wasn't implying that Heisey had a shot at right, rather that he had no shot at center.

IslandRed
01-14-2011, 12:41 PM
Heisey actually seems like the perfect 5th outfielder type to me.

Or fourth, for that matter, depending on whether the team is using a platoon anywhere. But yes, he seems well suited for that guy who can play all three spots and won't kill the team as a fill-in regular. Maybe it's not quite the Heisey we thought we might have when he put up that great half-season in AA, but it's a useful role and it pays well.

REDREAD
01-14-2011, 01:09 PM
If the Reds feel comfortable with Lewis/Bruce covering CF in a pinch (or making the occasional spot start), I think Heisley is really going to have to fight for his job with Hermedia for that last starting spot. Hermedia being a potentially good LH bat off the bench gives him a slight edge at this point, I think.

It would not be the worst thing in the world to have Heisley playing every day in AAA.

bucksfan2
01-14-2011, 01:26 PM
If Chris Heisey is one of your top 3 OF's you are in trouble as a ball club. If Heisey is your 5th OF then you are in good shape as a ball club.

membengal
01-14-2011, 01:27 PM
If the Reds feel comfortable with Lewis/Bruce covering CF in a pinch (or making the occasional spot start), I think Heisley is really going to have to fight for his job with Hermedia for that last starting spot. Hermedia being a potentially good LH bat off the bench gives him a slight edge at this point, I think.

It would not be the worst thing in the world to have Heisley playing every day in AAA.

Co-sign this.

OnBaseMachine
01-14-2011, 01:29 PM
If Chris Heisey is one of your top 3 OF's you are in trouble as a ball club.

The same can be said about Jonny Gomes then.

kaldaniels
01-14-2011, 01:46 PM
The same can be said about Jonny Gomes then.

The fact that Chris Heisey is such an unknown commodity at this point makes your statement somewhat inaccurate to me. Heisey's floor is much lower than Gomes' at this point...simply because we do not know what it is. Gomes is certainly not the king of production, but I'd rather him be my "3rd Best" outfielder than a guy who frankly we do not know if we can handle being an everyday major leaguer as we speak.

Given the choice between Gomes and Heisey for 2011, give me Gomes. Bird in the hand.

Kc61
01-14-2011, 02:42 PM
If the Reds feel comfortable with Lewis/Bruce covering CF in a pinch (or making the occasional spot start), I think Heisley is really going to have to fight for his job with Hermedia for that last starting spot. Hermedia being a potentially good LH bat off the bench gives him a slight edge at this point, I think.

It would not be the worst thing in the world to have Heisley playing every day in AAA.



Interesting point. IMO, Lewis, Gomes, Bruce and Stubbs are locks for the roster. That does open up competition for the last outfield spot between Heisey and Hermida.

Heisey is clearly the more versatile player defensively. But the Reds only have three lefty hitters among position players and a good argument could be made for Hermida as the fourth.

Reds could keep both of them initially, but the Reds will need a fifth starting pitcher by April 9, so that could be the day of decision.

RedsManRick
01-14-2011, 02:52 PM
I think his situation is a bit unfortunate, in that, talent-wise, he has a chance to be a solid every day major leaguer. Not a great one, but a 2.5 WAR type guy -- Brady Clark with a bit more power. However, the Reds clearly prefer Gomes and with Lewis around, there's simply no chance for him to get regular playing time.

Neither Gomes, nor Lewis, nor Hermida have much of a glove, so I think he's a lock for the roster as the backup CF, defensive replacement guy. But I would much rather have seen the Reds have allowed him to step in to the Gomes part of the Platoon.

bucksfan2
01-14-2011, 03:11 PM
I think his situation is a bit unfortunate, in that, talent-wise, he has a chance to be a solid every day major leaguer. Not a great one, but a 2.5 WAR type guy -- Brady Clark with a bit more power. However, the Reds clearly prefer Gomes and with Lewis around, there's simply no chance for him to get regular playing time.

Neither Gomes, nor Lewis, nor Hermida have much of a glove, so I think he's a lock for the roster as the backup CF, defensive replacement guy. But I would much rather have seen the Reds have allowed him to step in to the Gomes part of the Platoon.

Don't see him being an every day major leaguer. Maybe on a poor team but not on a good team.

I don't ever see him becoming a consistent hitter as long as his swing remains the same. I don't like how he starts his hands high and drops them to start his swing. As a 25% strike out guy I just don't like his prospects. He doesn't really do anything out of the ordinary to warrant a starting slot. He would have been better options than guys like Corey Patterson or Wily Taveras but right now I like him as a 5th OF guy.

OnBaseMachine
01-14-2011, 03:12 PM
The fact that Chris Heisey is such an unknown commodity at this point makes your statement somewhat inaccurate to me. Heisey's floor is much lower than Gomes' at this point...simply because we do not know what it is. Gomes is certainly not the king of production, but I'd rather him be my "3rd Best" outfielder than a guy who frankly we do not know if we can handle being an everyday major leaguer as we speak.

Given the choice between Gomes and Heisey for 2011, give me Gomes. Bird in the hand.

If you like WAR, Heisey was a more valuable player than Gomes in 2010 despite having nearly 350 less plate appearances than Gomes.

Gomes: - 0.1 WAR in 571 PA

Heisey: 1.3 WAR in 226 PA

I think Heisey is a solid bet to post a .750ish OPS while playing great defense. Gomes, OTOH, is a very poor defender and around league average with the bat. Give me Heisey over Gomes any day of the week.

kaldaniels
01-14-2011, 03:28 PM
And I agree Heisey won the WAR contest between him and Gomes in 2010. But I just am not totally sold on him after only 226 Big League plate appearances.

Blitz Dorsey
01-14-2011, 03:35 PM
I like the depth. When these discussions happen, it's sometimes as if people forget about the chance of injuries. The Reds have done a good job of stockpiling depth this year. Of course if everyone stays healthy (which won't happen) there will be some very tough decisions. (Heisey or Gomes for the other half of the LF platoon, for example.) But these things have a way of working themselves out over a 162-game season. Either there will be injuries, or certain guys simply won't be performing well.

I wanted the Reds to go out and find an everyday LF this offseason, but I'm moderately happy with what they did. They have a lot of options in LF with Heisey, Gomes, Fred Lewis (a very underrated sign considering what they paid for him), Jeremy Hermida and perhaps others.

Shortstop they have solid depth with Renteria/Janish in a platoon role. Also love the catching tandem with Hernamdez/Hanigan.

And if the young guns step up (namely Alonso and Francisco) the Reds will also have good backups at the corner infield spots.

Depth is so important over a 162-game season. Some fans tend to get caught up in what the team's "best" starting lineup would look like. But chances are, there will always be someone hurt and the lineup will be constantly adjusted.

RedsManRick
01-14-2011, 05:19 PM
Don't see him being an every day major leaguer. Maybe on a poor team but not on a good team.

I don't ever see him becoming a consistent hitter as long as his swing remains the same. I don't like how he starts his hands high and drops them to start his swing. As a 25% strike out guy I just don't like his prospects. He doesn't really do anything out of the ordinary to warrant a starting slot. He would have been better options than guys like Corey Patterson or Wily Taveras but right now I like him as a 5th OF guy.

I think we sometimes forget that even great teams have average players. That's not to say we should shoot for them, but I do think we sometimes conflate guys who would be mediocre regulars with guys who are truly not good enough to start. You don't have to do something out of the ordinary to be an everyday player -- you just have to not have glaring weaknesses.

Guys who struck out 25% or more last year include: Kelly Johnson, Andres Torres, Adam LaRoche, Casey Blake. There are dozens of other guys, though I do recognize that most guys who strike out that much and are successful are guys with a lot of power -- which Heisey doesn't have.

But I do think a guy like Casey Blake is a fair comp. He's not going to be an all-star. And you should probably keep an eye out for higher ceiling options. But he can probably play everyday and give you solid production along the way. Because his skill set is well-rounded, you aren't going to have a crater season like you can get from a Patterson. Heck, if we want a comp, how about a right handed Fred Lewis who plays better defense?

Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to have him as a 5th OF. I just don't think that's his ceiling -- and in particular, I think he would probably be more effective than Jonny Gomes as the RH part of a platoon.

REDREAD
01-14-2011, 05:39 PM
I wonder about this.

If we (or the Reds) think that Heisley has room to improve, would it be better to have him playing at AAA than being the 5th OF (until there's an OF injury)?

On the other hand, Heisley is already 27.. I am not sure there's much room for improvement.

The jury is still out, but I was really underwhelmed when he got the chance to start last year. Is he closer to being a future Fred Lewis or was he a Jon Nullally (put together a solid 1/2 season then vanished).

RedsManRick
01-14-2011, 06:17 PM
I wonder about this.

If we (or the Reds) think that Heisley has room to improve, would it be better to have him playing at AAA than being the 5th OF (until there's an OF injury)?

On the other hand, Heisley is already 27.. I am not sure there's much room for improvement.

The jury is still out, but I was really underwhelmed when he got the chance to start last year. Is he closer to being a future Fred Lewis or was he a Jon Nullally (put together a solid 1/2 season then vanished).

I think we often forget that small samples are small samples, regardless of who they are from. 200 PA of a guy getting his first chance to play everyday are no more indicative of his ability than a random period of 200 PA from a guy who is already an everyday player. And over samples of that size, any range of performance can be expected. A true-talent .300/.400/.500 guy could hit .200/.270/.340 or a true-talent .250/.310/.350 guy could hit .320/.360/.500. And chopping up that small sample to try to account for a stretch where he was "hot" or "cold" or playing regularly vs. pinch hitting really doesn't help. That all said, if Heisey continued to hit .254/.324/.433, his defense would make him more valuable than either Gomes or Lewis.

Its really not fair to judge a guy after a partial season, at least in terms of citing his statistics. There very well could be some scouting information which suggests he really is over-matched, has flaws, etc. I guess for me it's that he does have more upside than the other two guys which makes me want to give him plenty of opportunity.

IslandRed
01-14-2011, 07:27 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to have him as a 5th OF. I just don't think that's his ceiling -- and in particular, I think he would probably be more effective than Jonny Gomes as the RH part of a platoon.

Actually, I have the opposite take -- if the Reds have a strict platoon with Lewis getting the majority of at-bats in left field, then the other half of that platoon is the role that suits Gomes perfectly. The guy hits lefties very well and I can live with his defense when he's raking southpaws at an OPS of .850+, which he's done three of the last four years. But choosing a full-time player between the two, I'd rather have Heisey. His performance seems less susceptible to pitcher splits and with his defense, the overall production would be better.

edabbs44
01-14-2011, 07:39 PM
And I agree Heisey won the WAR contest between him and Gomes in 2010. But I just am not totally sold on him after only 226 Big League plate appearances.

If you believe in WAR, can you believe in WAR after only 226 PAs?

kaldaniels
01-14-2011, 08:08 PM
If you believe in WAR, can you believe in WAR after only 226 PAs?

Not sure what you are driving at, but I think WAR is the best measurement of production we have, so yeah...I can agree Heisey outproduced Gomes last year in less playing time...but it is too small a sample size for me to be sold that it will project forward.

edabbs44
01-14-2011, 08:56 PM
Not sure what you are driving at, but I think WAR is the best measurement of production we have, so yeah...I can agree Heisey outproduced Gomes last year in less playing time...but it is too small a sample size for me to be sold that it will project forward.

Since the fielding part is supposedly not very accurate over 1 season, how valid is it over one third of a season?

kaldaniels
01-14-2011, 09:17 PM
Since the fielding part is supposedly not very accurate over 1 season, how valid is it over one third of a season?

It's the best we got. It's not perfect.

edabbs44
01-14-2011, 09:35 PM
It's the best we got. It's not perfect.

I realize it, but if you aren't going to use UZR in that situation, why use WAR?

FWIW, Heisey was .1 behind Manny (NL only) last year in WAR, when Manny put up .311/.405/.510 vs Heisey's .254/.324/.433.

Yeah.

Patrick Bateman
01-14-2011, 09:52 PM
I realize it, but if you aren't going to use UZR in that situation, why use WAR?

FWIW, Heisey was .1 behind Manny (NL only) last year in WAR, when Manny put up .311/.405/.510 vs Heisey's .254/.324/.433.

Yeah.

I agree.

Too small a sample size for either offensive, but especially defensive.

At the same time, I think the defensive gap between the two players in this situation COULD be enough to tip the offensive scales. Ramirez may really be that bad.

Still, going into next year, clearly you'd rather have Ramirez than Heisey because there is not enough evidence that Heisey's fielding will grade out that well or maintain a respectable battling line. So I don't think that particular example is enough to flat out dismiss WAR or anything, it just correctly shows that spitting out WAR in a small sample, like any other stat is poor analysis, especially when a player's success (or lack thereof) is being valued based mainly on defensive value.

kaldaniels
01-14-2011, 09:56 PM
That's why I said I don't think it should be used to project...but my eyes and WAR tell me Heisey produced more than Gomes...Gomes was pitiful down the strech.

Scrap Irony
01-14-2011, 10:16 PM
Actually, I have the opposite take -- if the Reds have a strict platoon with Lewis getting the majority of at-bats in left field, then the other half of that platoon is the role that suits Gomes perfectly. The guy hits lefties very well and I can live with his defense when he's raking southpaws at an OPS of .850+, which he's done three of the last four years. But choosing a full-time player between the two, I'd rather have Heisey. His performance seems less susceptible to pitcher splits and with his defense, the overall production would be better.

This. If Gomes plays less but against primarily LH, his production will likely be close to what it was in 2009 (a 1.1 WAR, even with poor defense). Add in Lewis' 800-ish OPS (and 348 wOBA) with roughly league average LF D and 1.5-ish WAR himself and the LF platoon should garner around a 2.5-2.5 WAR overall.

edabbs44
01-14-2011, 10:19 PM
That's why I said I don't think it should be used to project...but my eyes and WAR tell me Heisey produced more than Gomes...Gomes was pitiful down the strech.

Heisey was a fiasco down the stretch. Moreso than Gomes was.

TRF
01-14-2011, 11:14 PM
Heisey was a fiasco down the stretch. Moreso than Gomes was.

no. he put up some bad offensive numbers as a rookie that got sporadic playing time. Gomes was awful on both offense and defense.

speaking of which, you can say the sample for Heisey's defense at the major league level is too small to determine how accurate it is. I say is professional career is all i need for sample there. Gomes was NEVER a good defender. he wasn't even average. Heisey has always been considered an above average defender at every level.

Ron Madden
01-15-2011, 03:24 AM
Given the choice between Gomes and Heisey for 2011, give me Gomes.

OK, you can have him. I'll take my chances with Heisey. ;)

Captain Hook
01-15-2011, 03:55 AM
I like the depth. When these discussions happen, it's sometimes as if people forget about the chance of injuries. The Reds have done a good job of stockpiling depth this year. Of course if everyone stays healthy (which won't happen) there will be some very tough decisions. (Heisey or Gomes for the other half of the LF platoon, for example.) But these things have a way of working themselves out over a 162-game season. Either there will be injuries, or certain guys simply won't be performing well.

I wanted the Reds to go out and find an everyday LF this offseason, but I'm moderately happy with what they did. They have a lot of options in LF with Heisey, Gomes, Fred Lewis (a very underrated sign considering what they paid for him), Jeremy Hermida and perhaps others.

Shortstop they have solid depth with Renteria/Janish in a platoon role. Also love the catching tandem with Hernamdez/Hanigan.

And if the young guns step up (namely Alonso and Francisco) the Reds will also have good backups at the corner infield spots.

Depth is so important over a 162-game season. Some fans tend to get caught up in what the team's "best" starting lineup would look like. But chances are, there will always be someone hurt and the lineup will be constantly adjusted.

It's a good thing when if you were ever forced to play your 4th,5th and 6th best outfielders at the same time they'd still be able to throw legitimate big league caliber guys out there.

bucksfan2
01-15-2011, 10:41 AM
I think we sometimes forget that even great teams have average players. That's not to say we should shoot for them, but I do think we sometimes conflate guys who would be mediocre regulars with guys who are truly not good enough to start. You don't have to do something out of the ordinary to be an everyday player -- you just have to not have glaring weaknesses.

Guys who struck out 25% or more last year include: Kelly Johnson, Andres Torres, Adam LaRoche, Casey Blake. There are dozens of other guys, though I do recognize that most guys who strike out that much and are successful are guys with a lot of power -- which Heisey doesn't have.

But I do think a guy like Casey Blake is a fair comp. He's not going to be an all-star. And you should probably keep an eye out for higher ceiling options. But he can probably play everyday and give you solid production along the way. Because his skill set is well-rounded, you aren't going to have a crater season like you can get from a Patterson. Heck, if we want a comp, how about a right handed Fred Lewis who plays better defense?

Don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to have him as a 5th OF. I just don't think that's his ceiling -- and in particular, I think he would probably be more effective than Jonny Gomes as the RH part of a platoon.

You absolutely can have average players on good teams. I just don't want an average player getting starting playing on a good team. Heisey doesn't do anything out of the ordinary and his best asset right now is his defensive game. IMO that takes a hit when you play him in LF, especially as a full time starter.

WAR has been thrown around lately like it is the end all be all stat. IMO in this case, especailly with Heisey and his 200 or so AB's his WAR is skewed by his defense. And that defensive factor (UZR) has been proven to be a poor judge until enough innings and years have been accrued. If he were a starting CF, SS, or C I could live with it more because of the defensive factor but in LF give me someone with more offensive upside as opposed to defense.

As for the guys you mentioned above Torres (career journeyman until this season) and Blake are good defenders at more key positions. I wouldn't really advocated having Blake as the starting LF on my team, would you? Also they have a longer track record of being able to sustain a full season.

I don't know what Heisey's ceiling is. It could be more than a 5th OF type but it also be just that. As I mentioned above I don't like his swing. And as proven in other threads about him he is a guess hitter who isn't very good deeper in the count. IIRC most of his damange this season came in PH roles and against the Pirates and Cubs. Im not going to make a judgement based upon 200 AB's and do like his power potential and defense coming off the bench, but right now give me Gomes/Lewis over Heisey as the starting LF any day of the week.

Mario-Rijo
01-15-2011, 11:35 AM
You absolutely can have average players on good teams. I just don't want an average player getting starting playing on a good team. Heisey doesn't do anything out of the ordinary and his best asset right now is his defensive game. IMO that takes a hit when you play him in LF, especially as a full time starter.

WAR has been thrown around lately like it is the end all be all stat. IMO in this case, especailly with Heisey and his 200 or so AB's his WAR is skewed by his defense. And that defensive factor (UZR) has been proven to be a poor judge until enough innings and years have been accrued. If he were a starting CF, SS, or C I could live with it more because of the defensive factor but in LF give me someone with more offensive upside as opposed to defense.

As for the guys you mentioned above Torres (career journeyman until this season) and Blake are good defenders at more key positions. I wouldn't really advocated having Blake as the starting LF on my team, would you? Also they have a longer track record of being able to sustain a full season.

I don't know what Heisey's ceiling is. It could be more than a 5th OF type but it also be just that. As I mentioned above I don't like his swing. And as proven in other threads about him he is a guess hitter who isn't very good deeper in the count. IIRC most of his damange this season came in PH roles and against the Pirates and Cubs. Im not going to make a judgement based upon 200 AB's and do like his power potential and defense coming off the bench, but right now give me Gomes/Lewis over Heisey as the starting LF any day of the week.

This kind of thinking only holds true IMO if you have traditional players elsewhere. Of course on this team at this time I will agree that a big bat is needed but say we had Adrian Beltre at 3rd instead of Rolen, then I wouldn't feel it matters.

But back to my point, for example alot of people think Drew Stubbs is a potential 30 HR guy and Brandon has hit 30 himself before. 2 areas where power isn't traditional. So if you are getting that kind of power from unlikely sources you don't have to have 30 from LF, 15-20 from that spot is alot under those circumstances and I think Heisey has every bit the raw power as Brandon or even Stubbs.

Edd Roush
01-15-2011, 12:11 PM
I wonder about this.

If we (or the Reds) think that Heisley has room to improve, would it be better to have him playing at AAA than being the 5th OF (until there's an OF injury)?

On the other hand, Heisley is already 27.. I am not sure there's much room for improvement.

The jury is still out, but I was really underwhelmed when he got the chance to start last year. Is he closer to being a future Fred Lewis or was he a Jon Nullally (put together a solid 1/2 season then vanished).

I definitely agree that Heisey could improve with more seasoning in AAA. My thing is he is more valuable than Hermida as a defensive replacement and his bat wasn't much different than Hermida's last year. If Hermida is cool trying to figure out his swing in Louisville, I would rather have him down in AAA receiving the extra PAs because I think he has a much higher ceiling than Heisey. If (god forbid) Bruce goes down with a major injury next year, I would hope that Hermida is raking in AAA so he could come up and take the everyday job until Bruce is back. I am very bullish on Hermida and because of this, I want to see him get consistent PAs and figure out how to utilize his talent which is on a Bruce-Votto-Stubbs level IMO. If he could figure out his swing, Hermida could be a long-term LF which you can't say about Heisey IMO.

edabbs44
01-15-2011, 12:34 PM
no. he put up some bad offensive numbers as a rookie that got sporadic playing time. Gomes was awful on both offense and defense.

That's one way to put it. Another is to say he was overmatched more and more as the season went on.



speaking of which, you can say the sample for Heisey's defense at the major league level is too small to determine how accurate it is. I say is professional career is all i need for sample there. Gomes was NEVER a good defender. he wasn't even average. Heisey has always been considered an above average defender at every level.

I think you missed my point. I know that Heisey is a better defender than Gomes. But it is reckless to use WAR in this way.