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The Voice of IH
07-25-2010, 12:31 AM
sorry guys to show my ignorance with this here, but I was wondering, with Harang and CoCo likely off the books next year, and maybe even Arroyo, the Reds will be cutting almost like 33 million dollars off their payroll. is that money tied up any where (like in the Chapman contract?) or could all of that be used to pick up some key players in the off season?

With all the knowledge here I am sure someone can explain this so that even I can make since of it :thumbup:

Thanks
Voice! :beerme:

corkedbat
07-25-2010, 12:58 AM
sorry guys to show my ignorance with this here, but I was wondering, with Harang and CoCo likely off the books next year, and maybe even Arroyo, the Reds will be cutting almost like 33 million dollars off their payroll. is that money tied up any where (like in the Chapman contract?) or could all of that be used to pick up some key players in the off season?

With all the knowledge here I am sure someone can explain this so that even I can make since of it :thumbup:

Thanks
Voice! :beerme:

Coco will be on the books next year for about $12-13M IIRC. Even if if Walt can move him, before next year, he would still probably have to eat a hunk of salary which would be on 2011's books. No payflex from Coco until 2012 and that will probably be eaten by young guys getting expensive.

I think Walt has tofind a way to move Harang during the waivers only period (unless there's a rotation injury) - if for nothing more that someone taking his option and giving us a warm body in return. I'd pick up Aroyo's otpion, but I'd be ready to try to move him in ST if we can find a TOR or the kids show they are all ready to go.

Ghosts of 1990
07-25-2010, 01:04 AM
Coco will be back next year. I think you're right about Arroyo and Harang though.

Here is a great recent thread where we were discussing this a little bit:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=83510

oregonred
07-25-2010, 01:09 AM
One more year of fun in the sun with CoCo and his $12M. Arrghhhh...

A question for the board, how much do the Reds generate on an annual basis from the latest Fox Ohio contract? I believe it was a significant increase from the $8-9M earlier in the decade, but can't seem to find the info.

mth123
07-25-2010, 02:55 AM
Posted something similar to this in another thread, but here is a new better version of something to think about dollar-wise(in Millions):

Coming off the books:

Arroyo - $11,0
Harang - $12.5
Lincoln - $2.5
Miles - $2.7
Cabrera - $3.0
Hernandez - $3.0
Rhodes - $2.0

Total Expiring contracts = $36.7 Million

Where it might go:

1. Option Buyouts $5 Million (Arroyo 2.0, Harang 2.0, Cabrera 1.0)
2. Commited Raises $5.81 Million (Phillips 4.25, Gomes 0.95, Masset 0.51, Alonso 0.10)
3. Arbitration Increases $14 Million ?? (Big unkown here but my guess is Votto $6.5, Cueto 3.5, Bruce 2.0, Volquez 2.0)

Adding it up:

$36.7-$5-$5.81-$14 = $11.89 Million in Payflex if the payroll is the same.

The team would need to bring in a veteran starter to replace Arroyo, a Catcher, a SS and a lefty reliever to replace Rhodes. If the team brings Arroyo back (I'd like to see them upgrade to a TOR guy myself), he'd be at $13 Million but the team would avoid the $2 Million buy-out and it would leave the team about $1 Million for everything else. Assuming they increase the payroll to around $80 Million, they would have $5 Million or so to spend. My vote would be to go cheap at SS with Janish and Cozart and cheap at Catcher with Hanigan and Miller (with an anticipated arrival of Mesoraco at some point) and get a good lefty to replace Rhodes (maybe Rhodes himself). If the Reds go with Chapman in the pen in Rhodes spot, then I hope they can get a TOR guy somehow instead of Arroyo to spend the rest of the money on.

GAC
07-25-2010, 07:06 AM
Coming off the books:

Arroyo - $11,0
Harang - $12.5
Lincoln - $2.5
Miles - $2.7
Cabrera - $3.0
Hernandez - $3.0
Rhodes - $2.0

Total Expiring contracts = $36.7 Million

Harang is a given. I say Lincoln and Miles are gone too. The others I'm not so sure about, as far as the Reds not exercising their options. I can see the Reds picking up the options on Arroyo, Cabrera, and Hernandez. If Arroyo gets the IP, then he gets a 2M raise in 2011. Hernandez gets a .25M raise, and Cabrera a 1M raise. I can see them offering Rhodes a contract for 2011 w/ an option year for 2012. He loves Cincy, so I can see him resigning for 2.5M for next year.

Giving Harang his 2M buyout + Lincoln + Miles = 15.7M off the books.

Raises.... add 2M for Arroyo + .5M for Rhodes to your committed raise total of 5.81M and that comes to 8.31M


15.7 - 8.31 = 7.39M remaining


3. Arbitration Increases $14 Million ?? (Big unkown here but my guess is Votto $6.5, Cueto 3.5, Bruce 2.0, Volquez 2.0)

Now here is where the guess work comes in ;)

I'm no expert on this, when it comes to arb, but I'd think other factors, such as years of ML service, as well as what you're currently making, would come into play, as well as performance.

I don't see an arbitrator giving Votto an increase from .55M to 6.5M. I see it more along the line of somewhere in the middle, but I'll say 4M. Volquez has been out a year, and it's dependent on how well he performs over the next couple of months. I say he goes from .44M to 1M. Cueto from .44M to 2.5M, Bruce from .44M to 1.5M. Total = 9M

7.39M (from above) - 9M = -1.61M

So roughly you're basically keeping the 2010 squad intact, losing Harang off the 25 man roster, and keeping payroll approximately the same, no great disparity.

I pretty much seeing this team staying the course going into 2011, and showing patience with the development of some of their younger players and prospects. Now after 2011 it could get even more interesting IF some of our young arms show more consistency and stability because they then can clear off Arroyo and Cordero's contracts. That's a total of 23M - 3M in buyouts = 20M in savings.

That gives them another year (buys time) to then try and lock up some of these younger players to multi-year deals as they then have better financial flexibility.

mth123
07-25-2010, 08:00 AM
Harang is a given. I say Lincoln and Miles are gone too. The others I'm not so sure about, as far as the Reds not exercising their options. I can see the Reds picking up the options on Arroyo, Cabrera, and Hernandez. If Arroyo gets the IP, then he gets a 2M raise in 2011. Hernandez gets a .25M raise, and Cabrera a 1M raise. I can see them offering Rhodes a contract for 2011 w/ an option year for 2012. He loves Cincy, so I can see him resigning for 2.5M for next year.

Giving Harang his 2M buyout + Lincoln + Miles = 15.7M off the books.

Raises.... add 2M for Arroyo + .5M for Rhodes to your committed raise total of 5.81M and that comes to 8.31M


15.7 - 8.31 = 7.39M remaining



Now here is where the guess work comes in ;)

I'm no expert on this, when it comes to arb, but I'd think other factors, such as years of ML service, as well as what you're currently making, would come into play, as well as performance.

I don't see an arbitrator giving Votto an increase from .55M to 6.5M. I see it more along the line of somewhere in the middle, but I'll say 4M. Volquez has been out a year, and it's dependent on how well he performs over the next couple of months. I say he goes from .44M to 1M. Cueto from .44M to 2.5M, Bruce from .44M to 1.5M. Total = 9M

7.39M (from above) - 9M = -1.61M

So roughly you're basically keeping the 2010 squad intact, losing Harang off the 25 man roster, and keeping payroll approximately the same, no great disparity.

I pretty much seeing this team staying the course going into 2011, and showing patience with the development of some of their younger players and prospects. Now after 2011 it could get even more interesting IF some of our young arms show more consistency and stability because they then can clear off Arroyo and Cordero's contracts. That's a total of 23M - 3M in buyouts = 20M in savings.

That gives them another year (buys time) to then try and lock up some of these younger players to multi-year deals as they then have better financial flexibility.

You left out the raises for Cabrera and Hernandez which added to your $1.61 increase would push the payroll to a doable $79 Million or so. IMO you really are lowballing the arb increases for the core four. Raises to the levels that I had suggested are not unheard of for first year arb guys and it will be the key question to determine if the team can afford to return all its main guys. IMO you are really underestimating that cost by $5 or $6 Million (about the cost of Hernandez and Cabrera).

I say Votto will be on the books for $7 Million or a $6.5 Million increase. Ryan Howard was awarded $10 Million off of a contract of $900K in his first year of arbitration.

I think Cueto ends up at around $4 Million or a $3.5 Million increase. A good comp might be Chad Billingsley who signed a deal for $3.85 Million to avoid arb in his first arb year. Cueto will be younger and coming off a better year than the one Billingsley was coming off of (both indicators of better future performance if that matters).

Bruce and Volquez are a little more iffy. Bruce might point to a guy like James Loney who is surely no world beater but went to $3.1 Million in his first year of arb.

Volquez injury muddles things, but he was an All Star in his last healthy year and now he has the service time. I think that will be enough to increase him to $2.5 Million.

Bringing this team back intact (Less Harang, Lincoln and Miles) would cost about $85 Million IMO. Not sure Cast will go that high. I do think they will want to bring Cabrera and Ramon back, but they may need to let Arroyo walk to do it and sign a lesser vet. I personally think they need a better arm that would be more of a TOR type and not a lesser one. Cozart and Mesoraco are probably the two best near ready position prospects in the system. If they aren't going to use them to backfill for expensive aging vets when the budget crunch hits, why not just go ahead and deal them for something to put the team over the top now?

I think the team needs to try like heck to deal Cordero for salary relief and backfill from among a combination of a returning Rhodes, a revived Izzy (or some other cheaper vet), a healthy Arredondo, a fireballing Masset and young comers like Jordan Smith and Logan Ondrusek. They also should start talking to the four arb guys about multi year deals to hopefully get a bit of a discount in 2011 and to add some certainty to the equation. My guess is that they already are talking to Votto and Cueto.

GAC
07-25-2010, 11:06 AM
Yep. I mentioned the raises to Cabrera and Ramon, but left them out of my ciphering. This is why I struggled with Math in school (forgetting to carry stuff over). ;)

And you could be right when it comes to the arb cases. Save this thread and for the fun of it, lets see what happens, and who is the better arb evaluator. Again - I'm no expert. LOL