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View Full Version : Reds In Pursuit Of Scott Downs



Marc D
07-25-2010, 11:44 AM
Per MLBtraderumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/competition-for-scott-downs-heating-up.html) Reds are one of the teams in the hunt for him.

Not sure how much I'd give up considering he's rental and he's kind of redundant with Rhodes already in the fold. They speculate he'd be a type A FA meaning the asking price would seem to have to be at least two legit prospects.

The upside is that he's a left handed groundball machine and just going by WAR he'd be the best pitcher in our bullpen.

All depends on the price I guess but I'm not sure I'd getting into a bidding war with the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets and Twins over him.

Thoughts?

RedLegSuperStar
07-25-2010, 11:45 AM
Per MLBTradeRumors.com - SI.com

Downs might be the best arm availible. Like Rolen a year ago; if obtained would be a Blue Jay traded to Cincinnati who is playing close to home. Downs is from Louisville, Ky. The plot thickens.. I'd like to see more then just a bullpen arm.

RBA
07-25-2010, 11:49 AM
Delete

RedLegSuperStar
07-25-2010, 11:49 AM
Per MLBTradeRumors.com - SI.com

Downs might be the best bullpen arm availible. Like Rolen a year ago; if obtained would be a Blue Jay traded to Cincinnati who is playing close to home. Downs is from Louisville, Ky. The plot thickens.. I'd like to see more then just a bullpen arm.

RBA
07-25-2010, 11:50 AM
Two legit prospects? I think that would be overpaying.

RedLegSuperStar
07-25-2010, 11:52 AM
Delete

I was less then a minute short..

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 11:53 AM
Two legit prospects? I think that would be overpaying.

I think so too. But if he does turn out to be a type A....

I'm just not sure he's a great fit here. Another Lefty? Seems somewhat redundant with Arthur and all.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 11:54 AM
I think so too. But if he does turn out to be a type A....

I'm just not sure he's a great fit here. Another Lefty? Seems somewhat redundant with Arthur and all.

Arthur's gonna run out of gas if he doesn't start sharing duties with someone.

RedLegSuperStar
07-25-2010, 11:54 AM
If the Reds acquired him.. I'd think he would resign here because he'd be close to home. I'd deal mid level prospects. Perhaps Dorn and Fisher.

edabbs44
07-25-2010, 12:22 PM
I think so too. But if he does turn out to be a type A....

I'm just not sure he's a great fit here. Another Lefty? Seems somewhat redundant with Arthur and all.

He's effective vs RHHs as well. I'd be all over this guy.

membengal
07-25-2010, 12:28 PM
Like the target, and I think Downs has occasionally closed games, giving the Reds (and Dusty) a back-up to Cordero if need be in an emergency.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:31 PM
Arthur's gonna run out of gas if he doesn't start sharing duties with someone.

True. But we're already working guys in. Ondrusek more, Smith more, Bray back.

I wouldn't mind getting Downs by any means. I just don't think to top flight prospects is a good use of resources when we're talking about a reliever-rental who's giving someone better a breather. Some mid-level prospects...absolutely.

blumj
07-25-2010, 12:35 PM
I think so too. But if he does turn out to be a type A....

I'm just not sure he's a great fit here. Another Lefty? Seems somewhat redundant with Arthur and all.

He'll be 35 years old next year and he's making $4M this year, so I'm not sure you trade for him with the idea that you're going to get comp picks instead of another fairly expensive season of him if you offer him arbitration.

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 12:38 PM
He'll be 35 years old next year and he's making $4M this year, so I'm not sure you trade for him with the idea that you're going to get comp picks instead of another fairly expensive season of him if you offer him arbitration.

When I typed that I had no clue about where he was from. If we think we can resign him for a decent amount...and it's not costing us an arm and a leg...sure.

I'm not against going after him. Just against overpaying.

hebroncougar
07-25-2010, 12:51 PM
I'd be all over him. I sure as heck don't trust Bray, and Rhodes is looking pretty worn down. Deal a prospect for him.

Kc61
07-25-2010, 01:03 PM
I'd be all over him. I sure as heck don't trust Bray, and Rhodes is looking pretty worn down. Deal a prospect for him.

Exactly right. A good lefty reliever should be a primary target. The right side is well covered with Izzy and Springer joining a pretty good tandem.

Reds should get this guy.

lollipopcurve
07-25-2010, 01:03 PM
Good target. Given that he's from Louisville, there's a decent chance he'd re-up.

TheNext44
07-25-2010, 01:07 PM
When I typed that I had no clue about where he was from. If we think we can resign him for a decent amount...and it's not costing us an arm and a leg...sure.

I'm not against going after him. Just against overpaying.

Since Toronto will likely get two draft picks for him, the Reds will have to give up two mid level prospects to make it worth Toronto's while.

He'd be huge help down the stretch, and in the playoffs if the Reds got that far. I think he's worth that much, depending on the prospects.

camisadelgolf
07-25-2010, 01:07 PM
He's a target that doesn't suck. Arthur Rhodes might not be around next year, so he could be the replacement if the Reds make an effort to keep him around.

fearofpopvol1
07-25-2010, 01:10 PM
I like Downs, but I wonder what it would take to get him. For instance, I could see Toronto wanting Heisey and I would not want to trade Heisey to get Downs.

hebroncougar
07-25-2010, 01:13 PM
Would you give up Dickerson to get him? I would. I bet that would fetch him.

edabbs44
07-25-2010, 01:14 PM
I like Downs, but I wonder what it would take to get him. For instance, I could see Toronto wanting Heisey and I would not want to trade Heisey to get Downs.

I don't think so...Heisey has probably raised his value above Downs. Maybe a Maloney + lower level guy offer would make sense, since he is a rental reliever.

edabbs44
07-25-2010, 01:15 PM
Would you give up Dickerson to get him? I would. I bet that would fetch him.

In a second. Or a heartbeat. Whatever is faster.

RedEye
07-25-2010, 01:17 PM
Downs is a good target if you are going to trade for a RP. I'm just not sure that's what the team should be doing though. Why not look at internal options and save the prospects?

Brutus
07-25-2010, 01:21 PM
Downs is a good target if you are going to trade for a RP. I'm just not sure that's what the team should be doing though. Why not look at internal options and save the prospects?

They've already been through quite a few arms in the pen this year. At this point, I think it's clear the bullpen musical chairs would not give them anyone as steady as Scott Downs. If he can be had without giving up any of the primary prospects, they should probably do it. He would be a great boost.

Kc61
07-25-2010, 01:21 PM
I like Downs, but I wonder what it would take to get him. For instance, I could see Toronto wanting Heisey and I would not want to trade Heisey to get Downs.

I doubt the Reds would weaken the major league roster by trading Heisey right now. Maybe in the off-season. Right now the team is in a pennant race and can't weaken the major league team.

But I'm afraid it would take a good prospect and a secondary prospect. Toronto showed last year that they have an appetite for the Reds top prospects.

Someone makes the very good point that Rhodes can't pitch forever so a veteran like Downs could soon fill his role.

It's a great target for the Reds, but might take a serious prospect to get him.

Kc61
07-25-2010, 01:25 PM
Downs is a good target if you are going to trade for a RP. I'm just not sure that's what the team should be doing though. Why not look at internal options and save the prospects?

IMO an upgrade at lefty relief is about the primary need at the major league level right now. Bray has a great arm but has been on the shelf too long and the Reds can't be confident that he will get the job done this year. A guy like Downs is exactly what they need.

Price may be high, though.

Cyclone792
07-25-2010, 01:45 PM
The Reds primary need for upgrades is relief help, and a guy like Downs would sure play a large role in satisfying that need for relief help. Great target, and hopefully Walt can land him without giving up a major farm piece.

RedsMan3203
07-25-2010, 01:51 PM
Like last year, get it done.

LeCure/Maloney + Dickerson? It may seem like alot, but I don't trust Dickerson to stay healthy for any amount of time in the future.

I do trust the OF trio of Heisey, Stubbs, Bruce (Heck of a D right there) with fillers of like Gomes, Nix, etc.

RedsManRick
07-25-2010, 03:49 PM
He's been a solid, reliable guy the last few years. I'm generally not a fan of trading for relievers because you just don't get much value from them. He is currently a Type A, but towards the bottom of the group. He feels like the kind of guy that ends up with few suitors in FA because nobody wants to give up their pick to sign him.

mth123
07-25-2010, 03:50 PM
He'd be a great target. Heck I'd give up a bunch for him. Dickerson? Yes, Maloney? Yes. Bray? Yes Frazier? Yes Sulbaran? Yes.

I would think that a Francisco, Maloney and Bray package would be appealing to the Jays. If they'd rather have Herrera? Done. Want Frazier instead of Francisco? Done. Want a younger arm like Sulbaran, Cline or Shunick? Done.

I'd stay away from Heisey, Alonso and Wood or anyone on the big league roster (though I wouldn't let Ondrusek or Smith kill the deal if the Jays insist) and I'd be against including Chapman, Hamilton, Yorman, Mesoraco or Cozart, but any combination of of these lesser lights is ok and I'd give four or five of them if necessary. Heck, I'd throw in another to get the Jays to pick-up some cash.

Dickerson, Maloney, Bray, Frazier and Sulbaran for Downs? I'd do it and not look back.

lollipopcurve
07-25-2010, 04:01 PM
Dickerson, Maloney, Bray, Frazier and Sulbaran for Downs? I'd do it and not look back.

Amazing what folks are willing to give up for a rental. And this guy's a setup reliever.

Two B prospects should do it.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:06 PM
Amazing what folks are willing to give up for a rental. And this guy's a setup reliever.

Two B prospects should do it.

2 Bs (Frazier and Maloney) and a C (Sulbaran) and two fringe guys that they really don't have room on the roster for (Dickerson and Bray) isn't much more.

camisadelgolf
07-25-2010, 04:08 PM
The most I'd even consider giving up is Matt Maloney and nothing else.

lollipopcurve
07-25-2010, 04:09 PM
2 Bs (Frazier and Maloney) and a C (Sulbaran) and two fringe guys that they really don't have room on the roster for (Dickerson and Bray) isn't much more.

Yes it is. Folks have no appreciation for the value of depth.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:11 PM
A pen with Downs and Rhodes from the left side and your pick of Ondrusek, Smith, Masset, Izzy, Springer, Burton and of course Cordero and whichever starters get moved to the pen (Bailey, Leake, Wood, Volquez) looks impressive. Subbing downs innings for those of Bray and/or Herrera while taking some heat off Rhodes and Cordero would be a huge step up for this team IMO. Its the kind of moves that keys a championship run. I'd rather have a starter, but this would be a significant upgrade and probably wouldn't require anyone we'd miss.

reds44
07-25-2010, 04:18 PM
Holy crap there's no way I'd give up all that for Downs.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:18 PM
Yes it is. Folks have no appreciation for the value of depth.

I certainly do and want it in the back end of the pen more than I want it in 25th men or 12th pitchers on the staff types. Downs and Rhodes would leave Bray with no spot and he'd fall farther behind when Izzy, Springer, Harang and Bailey are ready. Same goes for Maloney. Frazier would be the hardest to give-up, but I've always considered him a tweener and I wouldn't let that stop me. I like Dickerson, but the team needs a power guy to share time with Gomes and that's not him. Heisey and Nix are both better fits IMO and Felix Perez might be able to fill C-Dick's role as soon as next year.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:24 PM
Holy crap there's no way I'd give up all that for Downs.

I guess where we differ is that I don't think its all that much. I'm ready for Bray to be gone, the team has already moved on from Dickerson, Frazier has been exposed at the upper levels and doesn't have the glove for the spots where his bat would play, Sulbaran is awful and Maloney is way down the depth chart. Who would this team miss in that deal?

I'd rather give all those than Heisey or Wood or even Alonso straight up.

KronoRed
07-25-2010, 04:29 PM
I'd give them Heisey if they were insistent on it, nothing more though.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 04:39 PM
This team is short too many things to put all their prospects into a bullpen search. For one thing, it's the thing they probably need least to address. Now that Rolen seems out of the picture, they're going to need a bat and a starter. That's almost certainly not feasible.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 04:41 PM
This team is short too many things to put all their prospects into a bullpen search. For one thing, it's the thing they probably need least to address. Now that Rolen seems out of the picture, they're going to need a bat and a starter. That's almost certainly not feasible.

Out of the picture from what, exactly?

_Sir_Charles_
07-25-2010, 04:43 PM
Since Toronto will likely get two draft picks for him, the Reds will have to give up two mid level prospects to make it worth Toronto's while.

He'd be huge help down the stretch, and in the playoffs if the Reds got that far. I think he's worth that much, depending on the prospects.

I'd be all for this. My objection was from the early posts saying 2 top notch prospects.

IslandRed
07-25-2010, 04:43 PM
I guess where we differ is that I don't think its all that much. I'm ready for Bray to be gone, the team has already moved on from Dickerson, Frazier has been exposed at the upper levels and doesn't have the glove for the spots where his bat would play, Sulbaran is awful and Maloney is way down the depth chart. Who would this team miss in that deal?

Even if you're not that impressed with the bullets you're firing, it still leaves a pretty empty clip the next time you go hunting.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:47 PM
This team is short too many things to put all their prospects into a bullpen search. For one thing, it's the thing they probably need least to address. Now that Rolen seems out of the picture, they're going to need a bat and a starter. That's almost certainly not feasible.

Its not all their prospects though. Probably the only guy I suggested that anyone else would even want in a deal for a bat or TOR arm is Maloney and he'd probably be a throw in for that kind of deal.

Those other trades will require Alonso, Heisey, Wood, etc. and its the reason I'd go with numbers of lesser guys for Downs.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:49 PM
Even if you're not that impressed with the bullets you're firing, it still leaves a pretty empty clip the next time you go hunting.

If I'm trying to bag an elephant, it doesn't matter how many BB's I fire. The whole point of throwing numbers at them is to save the real chips for something better.

Ghosts of 1990
07-25-2010, 04:53 PM
Why do I have a feeling the only acquisition we're going to have to show at the end of August will be Izzy?

reds44
07-25-2010, 04:53 PM
I guess where we differ is that I don't think its all that much. I'm ready for Bray to be gone, the team has already moved on from Dickerson, Frazier has been exposed at the upper levels and doesn't have the glove for the spots where his bat would play, Sulbaran is awful and Maloney is way down the depth chart. Who would this team miss in that deal?

I'd rather give all those than Heisey or Wood or even Alonso straight up.
You're willing to give up a:
Major league ready OFer, who has proven he can get on base at a high clip and play good defense.
Major league ready BOR arm.
One of the top prospects in the system (Fraizer), who is also near ML ready.
As well as a lower lower level prospect

All for a middle reliever? Didn't we learn our lesson on overpaying for relievers? I would have no problem parting with any of those guys, but not all of them for a middle reliever. No way.

mth123
07-25-2010, 04:59 PM
You're willing to give up a:
Major league ready OFer, who has proven he can get on base at a high clip and play good defense.
Major league ready BOR arm.
One of the top prospects in the system (Fraizer), who is also near ML ready.
As well as a lower lower level prospect

All for a middle reliever? Didn't we learn our lesson on overpaying for relievers? I would have no problem parting with any of those guys, but not all of them for a middle reliever. No way.

We weren't adding a second Rhodes in that deal. We were getting a not ready for prime time Bray and Gary Majewski. Getting Downs to add to Rhodes would be like acquiring Charlton to go with Randy Myers for stuff the team has no room for.

I've never bought into Frazier as a top prospect. That was all based on some pipe dream about him being Jeff Kent. The guy can't play in the MI every day.

KronoRed
07-25-2010, 04:59 PM
Why do I have a feeling the only acquisition we're going to have to show at the end of August will be Izzy?

Well we can't just trade guys who "might" be good in 3 or 4 years :D

reds44
07-25-2010, 05:00 PM
We weren't adding a second Rhodes in that deal. We were getting a not ready for prime time Bray and Gary Majewski. Getting Downs to add to Rhodes would be like acquiring Charlton to go with Randy Myers for stuff the team has no room for.

I've never bought into Frazier as a top prospect. That was all based on some pipe dream about him being Jeff Kent. The guy can't play in the MI every day.
If the Reds are going to give that up, I want either somebody who can play LF or a SP in return. No way I'm dealing all of that for relief help.

mth123
07-25-2010, 05:03 PM
If the Reds are going to give that up, I want either somebody who can play LF or a SP in return. No way I'm dealing all of that for relief help.

They need to get that too. That's why you deal multiple lower end guys and save Heisey and Alonso for the bat or TOR arm. Nobody is giving the Reds the things you want for a deal centered on Matt Maloney.

Ron Madden
07-25-2010, 05:03 PM
If the Reds are going to give that up, I want either somebody who can play LF or a SP in return. No way I'm dealing all of that for relief help.

I'm with reds44 on this one.

reds44
07-25-2010, 05:05 PM
They need to get that too. That's why you deal multiple lower end guys and save Heisey and Alonso for the bat or TOR arm. Nobody is giving the Reds the things you want for a deal centered on Matt Maloney.
That deal isn't centered on Matt Maloney, it's centered on the 2nd best Reds positional prospect in the organization.

EDIT: check that, he's probably third behind Mes now.

reds44
07-25-2010, 05:08 PM
And in Dickerson and Maloney, you're giving up the Reds insurance policies if any OFer or SP gets hurt down the stretch.

It's a lot to give up for a reliever. Maybe their value to other teams isn't great, but Dickerson/Maloney could be important to the Reds down the stretch.

mth123
07-25-2010, 05:10 PM
That deal isn't centered on Matt Maloney, it's centered on the 2nd best Reds positional prospect in the organization.

Nope. Alonso, Cozart, Hamilton, Mesoraco, Heisey Y-Rod, Arias, Duran and Grandal are not on the table for Downs. Those are the best positional prospects. I'd be fine subbing Francisco or Valaika for Frazier though.

reds44
07-25-2010, 05:12 PM
Agree to disagree, I guess. There's no way I'd give all that up, and I don't think there's any chance Walt would, either.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 05:15 PM
4-for-1 and 5-for-1 trades don't happen in Major League baseball unless it's for guys like Cliff Lee - and even then we're usually talking about 1-2 big time prospects and a few b-level guys.

Trade offers that include that many players are too fantasy baseball-ish. Usually it means throwing a bunch of fodder (quantity) instead of anything of substance.

mth123
07-25-2010, 05:18 PM
And in Dickerson and Maloney, you're giving up the Reds insurance policies if any OFer or SP gets hurt down the stretch.

It's a lot to give up for a reliever. Maybe their value to other teams isn't great, but Dickerson/Maloney could be important to the Reds down the stretch.

I get that. But I think this is the best chance the Reds are going to have. Even if all the kids come along before they get too expensive to keep, a lot will have to go right to make-up for a the likely fall off we'll see at 2B, 3B, C and maybe even 1B. Rolen, Hernandez and Phillips are probably providing better than we can expect at those positions in the next five years and even Votto may not be able to equal what he's doing this year. You win when your team is getting career years from multiple guys. That is exactly what this team is getting in 2010.

I'm willing to deal off a couple insurance policies to go for dominance at a spot that can make a difference down the stretch and in a short series.

That said, I don't think it would really take the 5 for 1 proposal that I made, but if adding bodies avoids including the more desirable ones, then I add away.

REDblooded
07-25-2010, 05:24 PM
He'd be a great target. Heck I'd give up a bunch for him. Dickerson? Yes, Maloney? Yes. Bray? Yes Frazier? Yes Sulbaran? Yes.

I would think that a Francisco, Maloney and Bray package would be appealing to the Jays. If they'd rather have Herrera? Done. Want Frazier instead of Francisco? Done. Want a younger arm like Sulbaran, Cline or Shunick? Done.

I'd stay away from Heisey, Alonso and Wood or anyone on the big league roster (though I wouldn't let Ondrusek or Smith kill the deal if the Jays insist) and I'd be against including Chapman, Hamilton, Yorman, Mesoraco or Cozart, but any combination of of these lesser lights is ok and I'd give four or five of them if necessary. Heck, I'd throw in another to get the Jays to pick-up some cash.

Dickerson, Maloney, Bray, Frazier and Sulbaran for Downs? I'd do it and not look back.

Please never GM... That's a scary heap of talent for a 35 year old $4 mil/year RP...

mth123
07-25-2010, 05:31 PM
Please never GM... That's a scary heap of talent for a 35 year old $4 mil/year RP...

Maybe, but he's one of maybe three or four lefty's on par with Rhodes. Affeldt, Kuo, Downs maybe that's the list.

Its not really that much talent IMO.

REDblooded
07-25-2010, 05:40 PM
Maybe, but he's one of maybe three or four lefty's on par with Rhodes. Affeldt, Kuo, Downs maybe that's the list.

Its not really that much talent IMO.

2 guys that are definitely capable of being major league contributors, 1 guy who SHOULD (bray) be capable, and 2 others that are young, and have potential above average MLB potential (Frazier/Sulburan)? That's quite a bit of talent...

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 05:49 PM
Out of the picture from what, exactly?

10 games and no sign of returning.

mth123
07-25-2010, 05:50 PM
2 guys that are definitely capable of being major league contributors, 1 guy who SHOULD (bray) be capable, and 2 others that are young, and have potential above average MLB potential (Frazier/Sulburan)? That's quite a bit of talent...

None that are or will be any better than the guys already here. Maybe Frazier could upgrade Cairo's role some day, but its worth it to go for it now IMO.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 05:59 PM
10 games and no sign of returning.

LOL it's July 25 and you make it sound like he will be out the rest of the year.

If it were "no sign of returning," he would have been on the DL 9 days ago. I actually think he should have been put on after 3-4 days, but he said today he expects to be in the lineup during the Milwaukee series. Is that not a sign of returning?

That's what I meant by hyperbole. Statements like that.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 06:02 PM
LOL it's July 25 and you make it sound like he will be out the rest of the year.

If it were "no sign of returning," he would have been on the DL 9 days ago. I actually think he should have been put on after 3-4 days, but he said today he expects to be in the lineup during the Milwaukee series. Is that not a sign of returning?

That's what I meant by hyperbole. Statements like that.

They said in the Nats series that he'd be back in the Houston series. See how that works?

The Reds now need another bat in addition to a TOR. They don't have the prospects to get both. I guess it can't hurt to send a couple of moderate prospects for Downs if the hope is to extend him, but Downs by himself means very little.

TheNext44
07-25-2010, 06:05 PM
Maybe, but he's one of maybe three or four lefty's on par with Rhodes. Affeldt, Kuo, Downs maybe that's the list.

Its not really that much talent IMO.

I agree that's your offer isn't that much talent and that the Reds won't miss those guys, but I think that Scott Downs is only worth around half that and that is all that is needed to get him.

Brutus
07-25-2010, 06:07 PM
They said in the Nats series that he'd be back in the Houston series. See how that works?

The Reds now need another bat in addition to a TOR. They don't have the prospects to get both. I guess it can't hurt to send a couple of moderate prospects for Downs if the hope is to extend him, but Downs by himself means very little.

But again, it's July 25.

No sign of returning? For two more months.. really?

mth123
07-25-2010, 06:09 PM
I agree that's your offer isn't that much talent and that the Reds won't miss those guys, but I think that Scott Downs is only worth around half that and that is all that is needed to get him.

Maybe. Then get him now. All teams have a Maloney and a Frazier to give. Heck 5 years ago even the hapless at the time Reds could have packaged Elizardo Ramirez and Chris Denorfia. If the point is to get him, it has to be a deal that the Jays would go for.

mth123
07-25-2010, 06:12 PM
2 guys that are definitely capable of being major league contributors, 1 guy who SHOULD (bray) be capable, and 2 others that are young, and have potential above average MLB potential (Frazier/Sulburan)? That's quite a bit of talent...

Would you trade Rhodes for a lesser package? Especially if you can keep him and get a first rounder and a sandwich pick. That's what we're talking about.

*BaseClogger*
07-25-2010, 09:10 PM
Maybe, but he's one of maybe three or four lefty's on par with Rhodes. Affeldt, Kuo, Downs maybe that's the list.

Matt Thornton? Billy Wagner?

REDblooded
07-25-2010, 09:15 PM
Would you trade Rhodes for a lesser package? Especially if you can keep him and get a first rounder and a sandwich pick. That's what we're talking about.

Yeah... But you're talking about trading talent that's probably better than what we'll get as a sandwich pick...

All I'm saying is that you're giving up too much... It shouldn't cost that much, and if it does, you don't do it...

Tommyjohn25
07-25-2010, 09:28 PM
10 games and no sign of returning.

They said on the radio during the game today that he'd be back tomorrow or Tuesday.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 09:31 PM
They said on the radio during the game today that he'd be back tomorrow or Tuesday.

Since the beginning of July Rolen's been two things: injured or bad. Let's hope the second was related to the first and that he's over both.

Tommyjohn25
07-25-2010, 09:36 PM
Since the beginning of July Rolen's been two things: injured or bad. Let's hope the second was related to the first and that he's over both.

Indeed. All that being said I'd be all for getting Downs. A bullpen with him added and if Izzy and/or Springer still have anything left in the tank...could make for some small windows of opportunity for the opposition.

marcshoe
07-25-2010, 09:55 PM
It's pretty evident that Rhodes needs some lefty help. Downs would be a pretty valuable piece, more so than just a typical reliever. The problem comes when we start trying to value prospects. Can the Reds package Francisco or Frazier for a bigger piece? Can the team afford to make lowball offers? if not, how do they keep from overpaying?

I wouldn't count on getting a type A draft pick at the end of the year. If the Reds acquire Downs, I see them re-signing him.

mth123
07-26-2010, 03:03 AM
Yeah... But you're talking about trading talent that's probably better than what we'll get as a sandwich pick...

All I'm saying is that you're giving up too much... It shouldn't cost that much, and if it does, you don't do it...

That is where we differ. Bray and Sulbaran are chaff and Bray is likely DFAd at some point to make one of the roster spots needed for Izzy, Springer and Dickerson. I like Dickerson OK, but his value has probably been established by looking at what the Giants got for Freddie Lewis (nada). He likely has one more year in Cincy as an interesting but fungible 5th OF and then gets non-tendered after 2011 when arb comes around and the reds face a budget crunch. Its pretty debateable whether he'd be one of the best 5 OF on the roster now when healthy. I like Frazier well enough, and I may even agree that the team wouldn't need to include him, but his likely role is being filled pretty well by a scrap heap vet in Miguel Cairo and teams can find what he'll provide. I wouldn't make him unobtainable if it means acquiring a true upgrade like Downs would be. Maloney is the guy that has the most value in that package and he won't sniff a rotation spot for the Reds (probably not in Toronto either) and is likely a career swingman or fringe BOR starter. Two months of Downs helping to transform the back of the pen into a deadly weapon down the stretch and in the play-offs is more value than those other guys will likely provide to the Reds from here on out in 2010 and beyond.

I'd deal 100 of those types for a true quality arm for the late innings and I'd deal tons of those if it means holding on to more valuable guys lke Alonso, Wood, Heisey and Mesoraco. I agree that they probably won't have to deal 5, but adding more of these types to get an upgrade really doesn't hurt much.

It won't happen anyway. I'm guessig the Jays would want Alonso as a cheap backfill for Lyle Overbay (a guy who might be what Alonso is likely to become) and the Reds should hold out for better for Alonso.

Marc D
07-26-2010, 12:15 PM
OBM brought it up in another thread but if we're talking to the Jays about Downs why not try and add Bautista to the deal? I don't think he's as good as he's playing this year but he'd be a nice addition to the 3B/LF mix and some much needed pop off the bench.

In a perfect world we send 2-3 non top 100 types to Toronto for Downs and Bautista, Downs re ups for Cincy and the Reds are a better team because of it for the next few years.

edabbs44
07-26-2010, 12:53 PM
OBM brought it up in another thread but if we're talking to the Jays about Downs why not try and add Bautista to the deal? I don't think he's as good as he's playing this year but he'd be a nice addition to the 3B/LF mix and some much needed pop off the bench.

In a perfect world we send 2-3 non top 100 types to Toronto for Downs and Bautista, Downs re ups for Cincy and the Reds are a better team because of it for the next few years.

Why don't we go to the Cadillac dealership and trade in the '94 Buick for the '10 Escalade?

Same reason...they are looking for more than that for Downs alone.

LoganBuck
07-26-2010, 01:33 PM
If the Reds are after Downs, Valliquette has to be one of the chips going that way. Being Canadian and all, the Jays can take the chance on his arm, and if he pans out, he likely will stay north. I would think Canadian born players carry a premium to the Jays.

I very much doubt that they are going to get an elite prospect for Scott Downs. I see this as a deal that goes down around 3:30pm on Saturday, and the Jays get a reasonable but not exceptional return for Downs.

Marc D
07-26-2010, 01:34 PM
Why don't we go to the Cadillac dealership and trade in the '94 Buick for the '10 Escalade?

Same reason...they are looking for more than that for Downs alone.


Obviously there has to be a fair price.

Based on what Haren just went for I'm inclined to believe the actual selling price for Downs/Bautista might be reasonable no matter what the window sticker may say.

lollipopcurve
07-26-2010, 01:36 PM
If the Reds are after Downs, Valliquette has to be one of the chips going that way. Being Canadian and all, the Jays can take the chance on his arm, and if he pans out, he likely will stay north. I would think Canadian born players carry a premium to the Jays.

I very much doubt that they are going to get an elite prospect for Scott Downs. I see this as a deal that goes down around 3:30pm on Saturday, and the Jays get a reasonable but not exceptional return for Downs.

Agree 100%.

15fan
07-26-2010, 01:42 PM
In 150 ABs & 41.0 IP this season, Downs has given up 2 HRs, 10 walks and 33 Ks.

3+ Ks for each walk, and he keeps the ball in the park.

(In the AL East, too).

Seems like a decent guy to go after.

Also, if the Reds send back 2 minor leaguers, Toronto saves about $1.3 million this year by not having to pay Downs for August & September.

Chip R
07-26-2010, 01:43 PM
If the Reds are after Downs, Valliquette has to be one of the chips going that way. Being Canadian and all, the Jays can take the chance on his arm, and if he pans out, he likely will stay north. I would think Canadian born players carry a premium to the Jays.

Perhaps but Valiquette is from Montreal and is French-Canadian. That may not carry as much cachet in English speaking Toronto and Ontario.

fearofpopvol1
07-27-2010, 12:40 PM
According to ESPNInsider, the race for Downs is "neck and neck" between the Yanks and Sawks. Reds aren't even mentioned.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:16 PM
I think so too. But if he does turn out to be a type A....

I'm just not sure he's a great fit here. Another Lefty? Seems somewhat redundant with Arthur and all.


The Reds need bullpen help, whether it be LH or RH.. This would be a good move.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:27 PM
We weren't adding a second Rhodes in that deal. We were getting a not ready for prime time Bray and Gary Majewski. Getting Downs to add to Rhodes would be like acquiring Charlton to go with Randy Myers for stuff the team has no room for.

I've never bought into Frazier as a top prospect. That was all based on some pipe dream about him being Jeff Kent. The guy can't play in the MI every day.

I actually agree with you here.. All 5 of those guys have little or no value. Frasier is probably the most valued of the lot.. I guess.

Here's how they are really percieved:

Dickerson.. 4th OF at best
Bray.. mediocre BP arm
Maloney 5th or 6th starter
And I forget the fifth guy you mention.. :lol:

These are all spare parts, that are just slightly above replacement level. The Reds would not miss any of those guys, nor would those guys be that appealing to any other club.

If you can get an impact bullpen arm for a handful of beans, you have to pull the trigger. You don't bother trying to negotiate to pull a Maloney or Frasier out of the deal.

Tommyjohn25
07-27-2010, 02:29 PM
According to ESPNInsider, the race for Downs is "neck and neck" between the Yanks and Sawks. Reds aren't even mentioned.

Oh that's only because according to ESPN, those are the only two teams period.

Kc61
07-27-2010, 02:30 PM
The Reds need bullpen help, whether it be LH or RH.. This would be a good move.

Cordero, Masset, Smith, Ondrusek, Burton, Fisher, Izzy, Springer, Owings, Bailey, are all right handed.

I don't think the Reds need righty bullpen help. Certainly isn't a priority.

Lefty help, now you're talking.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:35 PM
I agree that's your offer isn't that much talent and that the Reds won't miss those guys, but I think that Scott Downs is only worth around half that and that is all that is needed to get him.

Ok, but the couterargument is that would you really kill a Downs trade for the sake of keeping Malony or Bray? I certainly wouldn't.

I'm guessing this is Maloney's last option year. I am not 100% sure, but it sure seems like that. What are we going to do with him next year? He's probably not going to be with the team.

As far as Dickerson.. the Reds have proven they can get comparable OF off the scrap heap.

I guess I don't see anyone on Mth's list that is worth crying over.
In fact, I doubt the Blue Jays would accept that offer. They probably prefer one guy that has a solid chance of being a better player than the 5 fliers in that list.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:54 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cincinnati_reds/

Summary.. Reds and several other clubs linked to Downs.. Jays are asking a lot due to Down's type A status.

Edd Roush
07-28-2010, 10:43 AM
Wow SI's John Heyman is reporting that the Jays are asking for Jesus Montero from the Yanks and either Casey Kelly or Ingelsies from the Red Sox. Sorry that I have no link, I am on my phone.

Now the asking price could be higher because they are inter-divisional rivals, but if the Jays want Mesoraco, Wood, Heisey or Alonso, I want no part of that trade.

REDREAD
07-28-2010, 11:15 AM
Now the asking price could be higher because they are inter-divisional rivals, but if the Jays want Mesoraco, Wood, Heisey or Alonso, I want no part of that trade.

Exactly.. it looks like the Jays are WAY overestimating Down's value here.
In reality, the fact that he is a type A FA is not that great.
Is the team that acquires him going to be willing to offer him arb? Doesn't the dude already make 4-5 million.. He's having a great year.. I am not sure a team wants to risk an arbitrator giving him 6-7+ million.. just to get a couple of picks.. Of course, the mega rich teams would not care, but it's an issue to a team like the Reds.

I also think comp draft picks are extremely overrated. I always believed that if you have the money to sign the two comp picks, you can get simliar talent in late rounds.. There's always guys that slide into later rounds due to their money demands. A team can use their "sandwhich" money to sign those guys. Draft talented college bound kids in rounds 40-50. Odds are that a couple of them can be swayed with sandwhich slot money..

savafan
07-29-2010, 02:18 PM
SI_JonHeyman

#jays asked #mets for top OF prospect kirk nieuwenhuis plus another for scott downs. mets saying no on nieuwenhuis

Mario-Rijo
07-29-2010, 02:55 PM
Exactly.. it looks like the Jays are WAY overestimating Down's value here.
In reality, the fact that he is a type A FA is not that great.
Is the team that acquires him going to be willing to offer him arb? Doesn't the dude already make 4-5 million.. He's having a great year.. I am not sure a team wants to risk an arbitrator giving him 6-7+ million.. just to get a couple of picks.. Of course, the mega rich teams would not care, but it's an issue to a team like the Reds.

I also think comp draft picks are extremely overrated. I always believed that if you have the money to sign the two comp picks, you can get simliar talent in late rounds.. There's always guys that slide into later rounds due to their money demands. A team can use their "sandwhich" money to sign those guys. Draft talented college bound kids in rounds 40-50. Odds are that a couple of them can be swayed with sandwhich slot money..

They aren't overestimating his worth just gauging the desperateness of the buyers. Sure they have their desired price in mind but if someone is willing to over pay they are gonna find them and get what they really want. They played the same game last year and got more than they should have for Rolen. Different GM but sounds like a similiar ploy. Downs is gonna be 35 in March he'll find a 2 year deal then probably but would he get just as much or nearly so in arbitration for 1 season? There is no gaurantee Toronto or anyone else gets picks for him next season, he could just decide to accept arb. That would be part of my argument against paying their price, they should balk sooner or later.

fearofpopvol1
07-29-2010, 06:48 PM
They played the same game last year and got more than they should have for Rolen. Different GM but sounds like a similiar ploy.

Encarnacion was DFA'ed and Stewart, who so many here were blown away by, has put up a 3.75 ERA at AA in 110 innings while giving up 106 hits and striking out 86. He's also walked 48 batters...a career high for him and the season isn't over yet.

Rolen on the other hand has been 3.3 WAR thus far this season and is on pace for 4.5...maybe even 5 depending on how these last 2 months go.

So, I'd love to hear factual evidence (not speculation) as to how the Reds overpaid.

Ron Madden
07-30-2010, 03:13 AM
Encarnacion was DFA'ed and Stewart, who so many here were blown away by, has put up a 3.75 ERA at AA in 110 innings while giving up 106 hits and striking out 86. He's also walked 48 batters...a career high for him and the season isn't over yet.

Rolen on the other hand has been 3.3 WAR thus far this season and is on pace for 4.5...maybe even 5 depending on how these last 2 months go.

So, I'd love to hear factual evidence (not speculation) as to how the Reds overpaid.

Encarnacion is back on the Jays major league roster.

Ron Madden
07-30-2010, 03:16 AM
I would rather see Walt stand pat than over pay for a middle relief pitcher.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 01:04 PM
Zach Stewart got a lot of strikeouts on his slider outside of the zone. Now that he's in AA, less hitters are swinging at it. He's going to need to learn to throw more strikes if he wants to succeed at higher levels. I have the utmost confidence that he'll figure it out--and he has plenty of time to do so--but I see him as a much more successful reliever than as a starter.

MartyFan
07-30-2010, 02:10 PM
I would rather see Walt stand pat than over pay for a middle relief pitcher.

:beerme:

HokieRed
07-30-2010, 02:23 PM
Zach Stewart got a lot of strikeouts on his slider outside of the zone. Now that he's in AA, less hitters are swinging at it. He's going to need to learn to throw more strikes if he wants to succeed at higher levels. I have the utmost confidence that he'll figure it out--and he has plenty of time to do so--but I see him as a much more successful reliever than as a starter.

Ryan Wagner never figured this out.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 02:43 PM
Ryan Wagner never figured this out.
True. Sadly, Wagner never figured out how to pitch with remotely-clean mechanics either.

edabbs44
07-30-2010, 08:31 PM
The Reds are in on trade talks for Scott Downs, according to the Toronto Globe's Jeff Blair.

The Reds could use another left-hander to pair with Arthur Rhodes, but the price on Downs is reportedly sky high, so it's probably not likely that a trade happens. The Mets, Yankees, Giants and Twins are among other teams that have expressed interest in the lefty, though the Twins are likely now out of the picture since they acquired Matt Capps.
Source: Jeff Blair on Twitter

From rotoworld...

edabbs44
07-30-2010, 08:32 PM
His twitter post


Just had guy who might know email me Reds are in on Scott Downs. Don't know what to makie of it.