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View Full Version : 100 games in, how many wins will it take to reach the playoffs?



OnBaseMachine
07-25-2010, 10:00 PM
The Reds played their 100th game of the season today and currently have a 55-45 record at the 100 game mark. How many wins do you think it will take for the Reds to reach the playoffs? With 62 games remaining, if the Reds play .500 baseball the rest of the way that would put them at 86-76. That's not enough to make the playoffs, IMO. I think 90 wins could get them in. In order to do that, the Reds would have to go 35-27 over their final 62 games. The starting pitching will have to continue pitching like they have lately, and the offense will need guys like Bruce and Gomes to step it up, but it's doable, IMO.

Let's hear your opinion. Are the Reds capable of winning 90 games?

PuffyPig
07-25-2010, 10:07 PM
The Reds are on pace for 89 wins.

I'm guessing that they or the Cards will do better than that to make the playoffs.

Probably 92 might do it.

RedsManRick
07-25-2010, 10:14 PM
If we end up with 90, I think we're more likely to win the division than the wild card. I'd be a whole lot more comfortable with 92. Of course, that's going to require near .600 ball the rest of the way.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 10:21 PM
If we end up with 90, I think we're more likely to win the division than the wild card. I'd be a whole lot more comfortable with 92. Of course, that's going to require near .600 ball the rest of the way.

Which is pretty unlikely.

OnBaseMachine
07-25-2010, 10:25 PM
I really, really want the Reds to make the playoffs this season but I will say this - if this team wins 88+ games it will be a huge step in the right direction no matter what. I think next year's team will be better. Volquez will be back for the full season. Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs will have another year of experience under their belts. Aroldis Chapman may be ready to contribute by then. Not to mention the F.O. will have the whole offseason to upgrade the shortstop and left field positions. With that said, I want to make the playoffs this season. Hopefully Walt can upgrade the team in the next few days to give the team a better chance in the final 62 games.

guttle11
07-25-2010, 10:29 PM
If the NL West separates itself a bit, it could take 94-95 wins. If the West teams all knock each other back a peg, anywhere from 88-92 could be enough. Look out for the Phillies, though. I expect a huge August from them, Oswalt or no Oswalt. They will get Utley back and they know the drill...they will make a nice run. If any team is going to make a major charge, they are the most likely.

corkedbat
07-25-2010, 10:46 PM
I'll say 92 wins gets the divison and 89 the wild card

The Voice of IH
07-25-2010, 10:47 PM
if you take the thread title literally, 1 more win then the cardinals :)

but honestly I think 95 wins is what its going to take. The Cardinals will likely bring in a key player, and I would still not be surprised if Jocketty does something also. The Reds and the Cards have the easiest schedule in baseball, plus they are playing teams that will be dismantled by August. I am aiming high, but I think that is what it will take to win the Central.

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 10:49 PM
if you take the thread title literally, 1 more win then the cardinals :)

but honestly I think 95 wins is what its going to take. The Cardinals will likely bring in a key player, and I would still not be surprised if Jocketty does something also. The Reds and the Cards have the easiest schedule in baseball, plus they are playing teams that will be dismantled by August. I am aiming high, but I think that is what it will take to win the Central.

I doubt it takes 95 just to make the playoffs. 90's a good threshold.

klw
07-25-2010, 10:50 PM
94

The Voice of IH
07-25-2010, 10:50 PM
I doubt it takes 95 just to make the playoffs. 90's a good threshold.

that's to win the central, I agree that 90 could get you in with the wild card...JMHO

Falls City Beer
07-25-2010, 10:52 PM
that's to win the central, I agree that 90 could get you in with the wild card...JMHO

This version of the Cards isn't a 94 win club.

Ron Madden
07-25-2010, 11:20 PM
I'm not sure just how many wins it would take for the Reds to win the division or to claim the wild card, I do know the Reds must play better than they have for the last month to win this division.

Ghosts of 1990
07-25-2010, 11:42 PM
We win 92 we're in. I was ready to post that as I entered the thread

nemesis
07-25-2010, 11:50 PM
Not to mention the F.O. will have the whole offseason to upgrade the shortstop and left field positions.

I think an everyday Heisey upgrades the LF position now.

Gomes in May:

(.364 BA) .420/.636/1.056 10 BB in 88 Ab's

Gomes in April, June, July combined:

(.236 BA) .271/.395/.666 11 BB in 225 Ab's

Not to mention a -30 UZR in LF.

Not a snowflakes chance you pick up his $1.8 mil option next year.

He literally is living off one big month right now. He needs to be platooned, badly. This is where the manager and his archaic baseball beliefs hurt this franchise. He sees those RBI numbers and just thinks he is a everyday ballplayer. But the real numbers, show he is dragging this offense down with him. Once Rolen is back, you have to, have to, have to make a switch.

93 is the Wild card number. 90 is the Division.

WVRedsFan
07-25-2010, 11:58 PM
90 gets the division, but it will take 92 to win the wild card.

oregonred
07-26-2010, 01:35 AM
90 wins should get it done one way or the other.

That means 35-27 the rest of the way for those keeping track at home...

fearofpopvol1
07-26-2010, 02:25 AM
I think 92 is a good number to aim for, but it could ultimately end up being less that is needed.

The Giants are going to need to start losing at some point to make the wild card race more interesting.

oregonred
07-26-2010, 12:15 PM
I think 92 is a good number to aim for, but it could ultimately end up being less that is needed.

The Giants are going to need to start losing at some point to make the wild card race more interesting.


Giants have a lot of tough games the rest of the way and will cool off. I think the Rockies will pull it together and stay within range of SF. LA is streaky. Giants are the biggest worry right now as they have a good enough record suddenly to make 90 wins a good possibility.

The Reds series in SF and Denver will be huge. IMO, the season will come down to the two west coast trips left on the schedule - a scary thought. Try to split with the NL West leaders and beat up on the D-Backs in the seven games.

Roy Tucker
07-26-2010, 12:36 PM
96 games wasn't enough for the Reds in '99.

And 103 games wasn't enough for the '93 Giants.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2010, 01:09 PM
Red Reporter takes a look back at past Reds teams who had 54-56 wins at the 100 game mark.

http://www.redreporter.com/2010/7/26/1588003/55-wins-through-100-now-what

Falls City Beer
07-26-2010, 01:18 PM
Red Reporter takes a look back at past Reds teams who had 54-56 wins at the 100 game mark.

http://www.redreporter.com/2010/7/26/1588003/55-wins-through-100-now-what

Throwing out the pre- and during WWII seasons, there are four seasons to really consider, all of which occurred before, obviously, the WC. Still, those seasons ended pretty well: two 89 win finishes, one 92, one 80.

bucksfan2
07-26-2010, 01:29 PM
NL East
Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins

NL West
Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Rockies

NL Central
Cards, Reds

The Reds and Cards have a big time advantage because of a lousy division they play in. The East and West will more than likely beat each other up. I am thinking that 90 wins will get the Reds to the playoffs, although I think the WC may be a tad bit lower because of increased competition between the other two divisions.

MattyHo4Life
07-26-2010, 02:14 PM
This version of the Cards isn't a 94 win club.

Agreed! I like the pitching more than some other recent Cardinal teams, but offensively and defensively this team can't beat the MV3 (Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen) in 2004.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2010, 04:29 AM
Nice read from Redleg Nation - Are the 2010 Reds a 90-Win Team?


The Reds had 61 wins and 48 losses for a .560 winning percentage
With just 1 win over .500 the rest of the way, this club would finish the season at 88-74
If they continue to play .560 baseball for the rest of the season, they’d finish with 91 wins
If they beat the teams on their schedule at the same rate they have so far this season, they’d finish with 94 wins

Read the rest:

http://redlegnation.com/2010/08/06/is-the-2010-reds-a-90-win-team/#more-15817

Tony Cloninger
08-07-2010, 11:13 AM
The mantra of lets win 2 out of 3...is nice but it is the same one that McKeon had in 1999 and they ended up still out of the playoffs. This team should try the petal to metal mode......like they did the 1995 club did, who pulled away from the Astros. They could do that by Dusty platooning Gomes and JF in LF.....Heisey and Bruce in RF, with Heisey playing CF when Bruce plays in RF.
Chapman for Bray. Homer for Leake. They have some good parts to us ein September as well from AAA.

cincrazy
08-07-2010, 11:23 AM
The mantra of lets win 2 out of 3...is nice but it is the same one that McKeon had in 1999 and they ended up still out of the playoffs. This team should try the petal to metal mode......like they did the 1995 club did, who pulled away from the Astros. They could do that by Dusty platooning Gomes and JF in LF.....Heisey and Bruce in RF, with Heisey playing CF when Bruce plays in RF.
Chapman for Bray. Homer for Leake. They have some good parts to us ein September as well from AAA.

Well, that team in 1999 won 96 games. That was just a fluke occurence. 99 times out of 100, 96 wins is going to get you in.

Tony Cloninger
08-07-2010, 02:42 PM
I know. I just have the stench of a blown game at home against Chicago and that 1st game in Milwaukee of the final series....on my mind.

Of course...Davey Johnson giving the finger to Marge by pulling what he did in HOU during the weekend as well....when he managed the Dodgers.

I(heart)Freel
08-07-2010, 04:47 PM
I just posted this on John Fay's blog. He was asking how many wins it would take for the Reds to win the Central or Wild Card. I think 90-91 will be the magic number. The Reds were sitting on 61 at the start of this Cubs series. So I think they need 30 more wins.

I looked at the season series left and made realistic guesses. I don't think this is unreasonable. I especially let them blow the West Coast trips and I never think a team is going to take more than 2 in a 4 game series, no matter who you're playing.

Here's how they scratch out 30 more wins.



Date Team Gms Wins
Aug 6-8 @CHI 3 2
Aug 9-11 STL 3 2
Aug 13-15 FL 3 2
Aug 17-19 @ARI 3 2
Aug 20-22 @LA 3 1
Aug 23-25 @SF 3 1
Aug 27-29 CHI 3 2
Aug 30 - Sept1 MIL 3 2
Sept 3-5 @STL 3 1
Sept 6-9 @COL 4 2
Sept 10-12 PIT 3 2
Sept 13-16 ARI 4 2
Sept 17-19 @HOU 3 2
Sept 20-22 @MIL 3 2
Sept 24-26 @SD 3 1
Sept 28-30 HOU 3 2
Oct 1-3 MIL 3 2
53 30