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Kc61
07-26-2010, 11:28 AM
6-4 stretch following ASB. Reds trail Cards by .5 games. Reds are 55-45, 31-22 at home and 24-23 road. Runs scored 482, runs allowed 428. Rolen out with injury most of this stretch, not on DL. Hernandez back from DL, Miller down. Maloney down, Volquez back in rotation. Fisher up for Owings.

Offense - Still good numbers, but some more slippage. Brewers now lead in OPS over Reds, .776 to .774. Reds OPS has dropped from .785 to .774 over last twenty games. Reds still lead NL in BA at .270. SLG slipped slightly to .438, just behind Brewers. OBP at .337, tied for second/third. Reds still lead NL in runs scored and hits.

In the ten games since the ASB, Reds have a .723 OPS, tenth in the NL. Other post-ASB stats are .257 (BA), .317 OBP, .407 SLG, all 9th-10th in NL.

Votto with OPS of 1.014, still going strong, Rolen and Hanigan with OPS at .902 and .862 respectively. But Phillips now at .796 OPS and Gomes at .786. Since the ASB, Phillips at .184 BA, Gomes with .229 BA. Bruce with .212 BA since ASB. Reds need Rolen back in lineup.

Pitching - Reds with 4.13 team ERA, slightly better than last time and continuing overall improvement as season progresses. Post- ASB team ERA is 3.64. Starting ERA is 4.11 as compared to 4.09 last time. Bullpen ERA improved from 4.48 to 4.22 with very good stretch in last ten games.

Cueto and Arroyo both with ten wins, Cueto having stellar year with 10-2 record and 3.19 ERA. Volquez 1-1 with high ERA - one good outing, one poor. Travis Wood is 0-2 but with 2.76 ERA in his first 32.2 innings, with 27 Ks and 9 BBs.

Cordero now with 27 of 33 saves and 3.83 ERA. Rookies Ondrusek and Smith with WHIPs, respectively, of 1.15 and 1.19 and with GO/AO ratios of 1.78 and 2.17, throwing lots of ground balls. Only Wood and Bray on current staff with a sub-1.00 GO/FO ratio (favoring fly ball outs).

Fielding - Reds with 40 errors, third least in NL, with .989 FPCT tied for second/third. Reds DER is now fourth in the NL according to MLB.com, continuing to improve.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2010, 11:40 AM
Reds are only 11-10 in July despite outscoring their opponents 96-69 this month. They've lost four one run games in July, including three 1-0 losses. With the way this team has pitched in July, they could easily be 15-6 and have a decent lead in the NL Central. The Reds really need Scott Rolen back in the lineup and for their corner outfielders to step it up again. Bruce is having a horrible month of July while Jonny Gomes has been bad all year except for May. It's a shame that David DeJesus is out for the year as I think he would have been a huge upgrade in LF.

Kc61
07-26-2010, 05:08 PM
Interesting how the Reds are among the top NL clubs in many offensive statistics and the pitching stats overall are not as good.

Yet, for those who follow the team, we know that the offense is really the sore point and needs to improve.

harangatang
07-26-2010, 05:10 PM
It's crazy the Reds are still in 2nd in OPS after the offense has been flailing.

Will M
07-26-2010, 08:08 PM
Reds are only 11-10 in July despite outscoring their opponents 96-69 this month. They've lost four one run games in July, including three 1-0 losses. With the way this team has pitched in July, they could easily be 15-6 and have a decent lead in the NL Central. The Reds really need Scott Rolen back in the lineup and for their corner outfielders to step it up again. Bruce is having a horrible month of July while Jonny Gomes has been bad all year except for May. It's a shame that David DeJesus is out for the year as I think he would have been a huge upgrade in LF.

Agree 100%.

Falls City Beer
07-26-2010, 08:17 PM
Yet, for those who follow the team, we know that the offense is really the sore point and needs to improve.

I don't believe that at all.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2010, 11:29 PM
The Reds have a National League leading 3.03 team ERA in July and yet the Reds are only 11-11 thanks to the offense. The offense is overrated, IMO. I've thought that all season long. They're basically living off a strong month of May. It's becoming more and more evident the Reds have to acquire another bat or two at the deadline to stay in this race. They simply can't afford to keep wasting good pitching performances like this. I can understand getting shut down by Cliff Lee and Roy Hallday, but Wandy Rodriguez, Aaron Cook, and Randy Wolf? Wolf entered tonight with awful numbers - huge number of homers allowed, bad control, lots of hits allowed.

toledodan
07-26-2010, 11:32 PM
they simply don't have good AB's. they swing way to early in the count and at bad pitches to boot. untill this changes they will more the same.

traderumor
07-26-2010, 11:34 PM
I don't believe that at all.

Read the game thread after any low scoring loss. We need offense. Read it after a high scoring loss, we need pitching. Being able to follow a team pitch by pitch on TV and comment on it makes this board more moody than my wife on her monthly.

OnBaseMachine
07-26-2010, 11:46 PM
Another stat: The Reds have lost six games in July in which they held the opponent to three runs or less. They lost another game where the held the Phillies to three runs through 11 innings and lost 4-3 on a walk-off in the 12th inning. This team could legitimately be 15-7 or 16-6 this month instead of 11-11. That's a four or five game swing. We're talking about the difference between 59-42 or 60-41 and a comfortable lead in the NL Central. Instead, here they are at 55-46 and a game out of first place. Frustrating.

Kc61
07-26-2010, 11:47 PM
Read the game thread after any low scoring loss. We need offense. Read it after a high scoring loss, we need pitching. Being able to follow a team pitch by pitch on TV and comment on it makes this board more moody than my wife on her monthly.

Nah, the pitching talent is better than the offensive talent overall.

oregonred
07-27-2010, 12:06 AM
Nah, the pitching talent is better than the offensive talent overall.

Clearly the case.
11-11 in July is almost the worst case scenario given that this has easily been the best staff in the league for the month. Another loss with only three opposing hits allowed. Two runs off a mediocre pitcher early and then nothing...

Staff ERA = 3.08 (1st)
BAA = .213 (first by 30 points)
Staff OPSa = .644 (1st by 30 points)
IP = 190
H = 146
WHIP = 1.13 (second is 1.21)
SLG = .353 (1st)
Yet an 11-11 record due to lack of offense.

Bright side is that 11-11 is a fluke and if they pitch like this the next 22 games they'll be 15-7 or 16-6. The pessimistic side is that the odds of this staff pitching lights out and league best over the next month is small given they are near the bottom in K/9 and K/BB over the same 190 IP.

dsmith421
07-27-2010, 12:09 AM
This has been the longest streak of good pitching from the Reds in over a decade. And they're losing ground in the race. Management has got to make a move to stop the rot.

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2010, 02:12 AM
This stat comes via John Fay:


STAT OF THE DAY: Entering Monday, the Reds had a staff ERA of 3.12 since June 17. That is second best in the majors behind the Chicago White Sox, who were at 2.84.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100726/SPT04/7270357/1071/Rolen-was-day-away-from-DL

mth123
07-27-2010, 06:28 AM
I think the arguing over whether the team needs offense or a pitcher is useless. This is a much improved team to what we've been used to, but even with career years from 1b, 2b, 3b, C (thus the league leading offense) and a young rotation that looks fairly solid, they are only on pace for about 90 Wins at best. Championship teams are usually better than that. I think, if its a championship that this team is aiming for, a Bat, a TOR arm and a good late inning guy are all needed to get this team to the next level and adding any of the three would be a step forward.

If they could only get one, I'd prefer the TOR arm.

nate
07-27-2010, 09:17 AM
How is the offense a problem when, in July we've had:

Runs scored: 96
Runs allowed: 69

Seems like we've just played a lot of close ones and a couple blowouts.

traderumor
07-27-2010, 11:50 AM
How is the offense a problem when, in July we've had:

Runs scored: 96
Runs allowed: 69

Seems like we've just played a lot of close ones and a couple blowouts.Because the offense is supposed to score at least one more run than the opponent on any given night. Anything less is a sign of weakness in need of correction ;)

Ron Madden
07-27-2010, 12:24 PM
How is the offense a problem when, in July we've had:

Runs scored: 96
Runs allowed: 69

Seems like we've just played a lot of close ones and a couple blowouts.

While I agree with you, I can't help but think this club could sure use a leadoff hitter.

I like Phillips hitting second, Votto third and Rolen fourth but I hate seeing OCab leading off.

nate
07-27-2010, 12:27 PM
While I agree with you, I can't help but think this club could sure use a leadoff hitter.

I like Phillips hitting second, Votto third and Rolen fourth but I hate seeing OCab leading off.

I was cool with BP leading off.

And would've been cool with O-Cab hitting 8th or pine.

:cool:

traderumor
07-27-2010, 02:45 PM
Fay suggests Podsednik might be available for leadoff, but if Dickerson gets healthy, I imagine he can provide the same thing--spell Stubbs, hit leadoff when he does.

Kc61
07-27-2010, 02:50 PM
Fay suggests Podsednik might be available for leadoff, but if Dickerson gets healthy, I imagine he can provide the same thing--spell Stubbs, hit leadoff when he does.

Many Reds fans seem to have a very high opinion of Dickerson and Heisey.

Dickerson strikes out a ton for a non-power hitter. Heisey hasn't proven much yet, except as a pinch hitter.

If you are trying to win this year, I'm not sure these two are the difference makers. They may be ok as long-term fourth outfielders.

Podsednik would have much more value at this stage. . . .

Reds1
07-27-2010, 03:35 PM
Remember these numbers are with Rolen out and I'm getting a bit worried about BP. He just doesn't look right, but he has always been streaky. I think the reds just are in a funk where 3-4 players (Bruce, BP, Gomes) are in a funk. Seems OC doing better and Votto keeps rolling and Hanningan is back and doing well. They just need to score a bit more, but hopefully this will come back. The pitching staff right now is pretty sweet and that includes the pen. They are better rested and seem to be doing better. They just need to grind and start winning some of these one run games.

Kc61
07-27-2010, 05:15 PM
Against righties - OCabrera has a .577 OPS. Drew Stubbs has a .657 OPS.

Against lefties -- Jay Bruce has a .700 OPS. Chris Heisey (limited at bats) has a .661 OPS.

Maybe some platooning is in order.

Also, Phillips with .789 OPS against lefties. Unusually low for him, I think.

Rojo
07-27-2010, 07:03 PM
Earlier in the year, the Red's Park Adjusted Defense Efficiency was near the bottom. Now it's second in the league. This jives with my sense that the pitching staff was better than it's numbers early on.

Defense doesn't slump, so there's no reason to expect the PADE to change much, barring injuries (Rolen?), but I'd say we need to be cautious about this low-K staff.

reds44
07-27-2010, 07:05 PM
Fay suggests Podsednik might be available for leadoff, but if Dickerson gets healthy, I imagine he can provide the same thing--spell Stubbs, hit leadoff when he does.
I'm not even sure Podsednik can play CF at this point his career. Like I mentioned in another thread, I'd like to have Podsednik but he'd be playing in LF.