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GIDP
07-26-2010, 10:48 PM
just searched it prior to tonights game for the team leader in the WAR stat. The first number is the WAR, the Second is how much that player would be paid if he was being paid compared to other players with similar value.


Name WAR Dollars
Joey Votto 4.7 $18.70
Brandon Phillips 3.3 $13.00
Scott Rolen 3.1 $12.40
Jay Bruce 1.6 $6.40
Ramon Hernandez 1.5 $5.90
Drew Stubbs 1.1 $4.50
Ryan Hanigan 1.1 $4.40
Orlando Cabrera 1 $3.90
Miguel Cairo 0.5 $2.20
Laynce Nix 0.5 $2.00
Jonny Gomes -0.1 -$0.40


Funny how these stats come out to be pretty close to correct.

Rijo's Ghost
07-26-2010, 10:57 PM
The dollar numbers are based on what FA players signed for based on their previous season's WAR, which was right around 4 million per 1 WAR this offseason. Basically, it's an estimated open market value.

GIDP
07-26-2010, 11:00 PM
The dollar numbers are based on what FA players signed for based on their previous season's WAR, which was right around 4 million per 1 WAR this offseason. Basically, it's an estimated open market value.

I think I said that but thanks for probably explaining it a little better than I did.

sivman17
07-26-2010, 11:32 PM
Seems odd that Gomes should be paying the Reds. I would say he's had a better season than most of the guys on the team. Perhaps I don't fully understand this statistic.

GIDP
07-26-2010, 11:34 PM
Seems odd that Gomes should be paying the Reds. I would say he's had a better season than most of the guys on the team. Perhaps I don't fully understand this statistic.

It takes in defensive value.

sivman17
07-26-2010, 11:43 PM
It takes in defensive value.

Even so... I'm still surprised. He's only had 1 error all season and has 3 assists. And he's got the 4th best ZR of NL LFs. Ah well

GIDP
07-26-2010, 11:44 PM
Even so... I'm still surprised. He's only had 1 error all season and has 3 assists. And he's got the 4th best ZR of NL LFs. Ah well

Well his bat isnt great either.

his UZR/150 is 3rd worst in the majors.

texasdave
07-26-2010, 11:51 PM
Random Thought: Is Jay Bruce on his way to becoming Paul O'Neill?

GIDP
07-26-2010, 11:52 PM
Random Thought: Is Jay Bruce on his way to becoming Paul O'Neill?
Maybe, but Bruce has more power and Paul had better contact ability.

sivman17
07-26-2010, 11:57 PM
I think the O'Neill comparison is accurate. I actually see him more of an Austin Kearns. Their stats at the same age are very similar. Kearns had a much better OBP, but that's the only major difference. Kearns didn't quite pan out like we had all hoped.

texasdave
07-27-2010, 12:14 AM
The closer I look at the stats on Fangraphs (especially defensive) the more skeptical I become.

I posted this on Saturday:



Name Team Bat Field Replace Pos. RAR WAR Dollars
Rafael Furcal Dodgers 18.1 4.8 10.2 2.9 36.0 3.7 $14.80
Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 10.6 3.2 8.8 2.8 25.4 2.6 $10.40
Hanley Ramirez Marlins 13.3 -6.1 13.4 4.1 24.8 2.5 $10.20
Stephen Drew Dbacks -0.3 3.2 12.1 3.7 18.7 1.9 $7.70
Jose Reyes Mets 1.5 -0.4 12.4 3.7 17.3 1.8 $7.10
Juan Uribe Giants 0.5 1.1 11.7 2.7 16.0 1.6 $6.60
Starlin Castro Cubs 0.4 2.6 8.5 3.0 14.6 1.5 $6.00
Jerry Hairston Padres -4.8 5.3 11.6 2.5 14.5 1.5 $5.90
Yunel Escobar Braves -7.7 4.4 10.0 3.3 10.0 1.0 $4.10
Felipe Lopez Cards 1.8 -2.7 9.1 1.4 9.6 1.0 $3.90
Ronny Cedeno Pirates -9.3 3.5 9.7 3.4 7.3 0.7 $3.00
Clint Barmes Rockies -7.3 0.6 10.7 2.3 6.3 0.7 $2.60
Ian Desmond Nats -7.8 -0.5 10.6 3.5 5.9 0.6 $2.40
Orlando Cabrera Reds -13.8 1.8 13.7 4.1 5.9 0.6 $2.40
Alcides Escobar Brewers -10.9 0.1 11.5 3.7 4.3 0.4 $1.80
Ryan Theriot Cubs -14.3 -2.0 13.0 2.1 -1.2 -0.1 ($0.50)
Brendan Ryan Cards -16.9 3.0 8.9 3.2 -1.9 -0.2 ($0.80)

Just two days later:



Name Team Bat Field Replace Posit RAR WAR Dollars
Rafael Furcal Dodgers 17.8 6.3 10.5 3 37.6 3.9 $15.50
Troy Tulowitzki Rockies 10.6 2.8 8.8 2.8 25 2.6 $10.30
Hanley Ramirez Marlins 13.5 -8.4 13.8 4.2 23.1 2.4 $9.50
Stephen Drew DBacks -0.8 4 12.4 3.8 19.4 2 $8.00
Starlin Castro Cubs 2.8 2.7 8.8 3.1 17.4 1.8 $7.10
Jerry Hairston Padres -5.3 7.3 11.9 2.5 16.4 1.7 $6.70
Juan Uribe Giants 0.1 1 12 2.7 15.9 1.6 $6.50
Jose Reyes Mets 0.9 -2.7 12.8 3.8 14.8 1.5 $6.10
Ronny Cedeno Pirates -5.8 6.1 9.9 3.5 13.8 1.4 $5.70
Yunel Escobar Braves -7.7 5.1 10 3.3 10.7 1.1 $4.40
Orlando Cabrera Reds -14 5.3 14 4.2 9.5 1 $3.90
Felipe Lopez Cards 2.8 -4.4 9.3 1.4 9.2 0.9 $3.80
Clint Barmes Rockies -8.7 3.1 11 2.4 7.8 0.8 $3.20
Alcides Escobar Brewers -11 0.2 11.7 3.8 4.7 0.5 $1.90
Ian Desmond Nats -9.4 -3.7 10.8 3.6 1.4 0.1 $0.60
Brendan Ryan Cards -16.2 5.1 9.2 3.3 1.3 0.1 $0.50
Ryan Theriot Cubs -13.8 -4.3 13.3 2.2 -2.7 -0.3 ($1.10)

Looking just at the Fielding Portion of the Value Equation gives you this:



NAME FLD 7/26 FLD 7/24 DIFF
Rafael Furcal 6.3 4.8 1.5
Troy Tulowitzki 2.8 3.2 -0.4
Hanley Ramirez -8.4 -6.1 -2.3
Stephen Drew 4.0 3.2 0.8
Starlin Castro 2.7 2.6 0.1
Jerry Hairston 7.3 5.3 2.0
Juan Uribe 1.0 1.1 -0.1
Jose Reyes -2.7 -0.4 -2.3
Ronny Cedeno 6.1 3.5 2.6
Yunel Escobar 5.1 4.4 0.7
Orlando Cabrera 5.3 1.8 3.5
Felipe Lopez -4.4 -2.7 -1.7
Clint Barmes 3.1 0.6 2.5
Alcides Escobar 0.2 0.1 0.1
Ian Desmond -3.7 -0.5 -3.2
Brendan Ryan 5.1 3.0 2.1
Ryan Theriot -4.3 -2.0 -2.3

Are we to believe that just two games (I am assuming Monday's games aren't included) make that big a difference? Do fielding stats fluctuate that wildly? Just on fielding alone OCab picked up 1.4 million in value in two games. Does that seem right to anyone?

There might be a logical explanation, but I certainly am not aware of it.

GIDP
07-27-2010, 12:32 AM
The closer I look at the stats on Fangraphs (especially defensive) the more skeptical I become.

I posted this on Saturday:



Just two days later:



Looking just at the Fielding Portion of the Value Equation gives you this:



Are we to believe that just two games (I am assuming Monday's games aren't included) make that big a difference? Do fielding stats fluctuate that wildly? Just on fielding alone OCab picked up 1.4 million in value in two games. Does that seem right to anyone?

There might be a logical explanation, but I certainly am not aware of it.
The numbers dont have to stay the same. Its a fluid stat just like OPS. Cabrera did make a few pretty good plays recently so that could easily explain the bump. His bat has also been hot. WAR is cumulative its not a rating.

texasdave
07-27-2010, 12:38 AM
The numbers dont have to stay the same. Its a fluid stat just like OPS. Cabrera did make a few pretty good plays recently so that could easily explain the bump. His bat has also been hot. WAR is cumulative its not a rating.

I under it is fluid but it would seem like the further into the season the less likely you are going to have a big jump like that. Two games out of one hundred is 2%. I don't care how many plays he made it should not affect his fielding value that much, in effect tripling it. Could a player boost his OPS from .600 to 1.800 in two games this time of year?

scott91575
07-27-2010, 12:40 AM
I under it is fluid but it would seem like the further into the season the less likely you are going to have a big jump like that. Two games out of one hundred is 2%. I don't care how many plays he made it should not affect his fielding value that much, in effect tripling it. Could a player boost his OPS from .600 to 1.800 in two games this time of year?

Fielding Sabermetric values are still very suspect. Even Sapermatricians agree they need a lot of work. Defense is very tough to get statistics on.

GIDP
07-27-2010, 12:45 AM
Comparing it to OPS like that is wrong. I was simply saying it can go up and down depending on how the guy plays.

Its being compared to replacement level. He went from half a win better to 1 win better than a replacement level player. I wish I could explain it better but I'm not great at it. Maybe someone will PM you with a better explanation than I can give.

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 02:06 AM
It's really hard to explain in simple terms, but here's a good read on UZR.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/#2

Vottomatic
07-27-2010, 07:19 AM
Agree with about everything but Gomes. He's better than that WAR rating.

GIDP
07-31-2010, 08:04 AM
Updated



Name WAR Dollars
Joey Votto 5.2 $20.80
Brandon Phillips 3.6 $14.40
Scott Rolen 3.5 $13.90
Ramon Hernandez 1.6 $6.20
Jay Bruce 1.5 $5.80
Orlando Cabrera 1 $3.80
Drew Stubbs 1 $3.80
Jonny Gomes -0.1 -$0.40