Why trades of prospects must happen

[Kc61]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

[BuckWild03]

I would agree with this if it weren't for the lack of quality players "available" on the trade market. I don't want to see the Reds make a move just to make a move.

[Kc61]

I would agree with this if it weren't for the lack of quality players "available" on the trade market. I don't want to see the Reds make a move just to make a move.

These deals don't have to be right now. But I think the Reds should be moving AAA guys in trades by this off-season.

[BuckWild03]

I agree. Not sure who the big name free agents will be this off-season but I definitely think Alonso, at the very least, is dispensable.

[lollipopcurve]

These deals don't have to be right now. But I think the Reds should be moving AAA guys in trades by this off-season.

You're right that this kind of trade must be made in the relatively near future. But the Reds won't be "up against it" until options start running out. So, I think that means that they could conceivably run Alonso and Francisco (and Cozart) out at Louisville again next year. And that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. After all, you have to think that at least one of these guys, maybe more, will be needed as a key player by the Reds down the line, and the extra seasoning would likely be beneficial.

The key, of course, is finding the right deal. I'm sure the Reds have a number of players they're interested in and are just waiting to see if those players will be made available. I would prefer they hold their bullets until they can bag big game, instead of dribbling the prospect bounty away on some spare parts.

[camisadelgolf]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?
I agree with you in principle, but I don't really see any urgency to bring those guys up. Even in 2011, I think the Reds can afford to keep pretty much all those guys short of Burton in AAA. I say Burton is an exception because I think he'll be non-tendered unless he returns to form at the major league level.

[cinreds21]

Smith has done pretty well, I don't really think he's deserving of being sent down, yet.

[flash]

I have often suggested that the Reds should try to obtain Eduardo Nunez, SS from the Yankees. With Jeter still at shortstop his future there is questionable. I said the Reds could offer Francisco or Alonso. But the Yanks may want young pitching Their staff is like the Geritol gang.

Another potential SS is Osvado Martinez From the Marlins. He is hitting .301 in the Southern League. The Marlins do need help in the outfield right now.

I think the Reds could stand to improve at short, third, and the outfield. Cabrera is all right and is a proven winner, but the Reds need someone at the top of the line-up who can get on base.

Rolen is a good player, not great. At his age he is also only a 110-120 game player. A good back-up at third would be helpful. That is why I think the Reds should try to protect Mendez.

The Reds outfield is all right. There is nothing special about it. Stubbs is a big disappointment. (I believe he is 0-his last 24.) He also can't bunt. Bruce has his rocket arm and Gomes has power. I don't see Nix in the future at all. Because of this I think Dorn and Sappelt will be pushing for a spot next year. Heisey too.

Cozart is all right, but I doubt if he is any better than Cabrera.

All in all, the Reds minor league performances this year have been bad. Aside from Dorn, Sappelt and Merasco, and Mendez, there hasn't been any outstanding play. for the most part of the year the Reds farm teams have been trying top stay out of the cellar which is not good.

[Brutus]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

Some of these guys (like Valaika) probably don't have to be added to the 40-man roster, and thus don't have to go anywhere. Sure, it will be time for them to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they aren't added, but most of the guys not already on the 40-man aren't going to be in high demand -- especially since the prerequisite of taking someone in the Rule 5 is that they have to be added to the active roster all season.

[HokieRed]

Valaika's on the 40 now, though I'd be surprised if he is at the time of Rule 5.

[flash]

Some of these guys (like Valaika) probably don't have to be added to the 40-man roster, and thus don't have to go anywhere. Sure, it will be time for them to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft if they aren't added, but most of the guys not already on the 40-man aren't going to be in high demand -- especially since the prerequisite of taking someone in the Rule 5 is that they have to be added to the active roster all season.

That may or may not be true. Dorn didn't go anywhere last year because he had never had an outstanding season.

Both he and Vailaika have done well this year so they will be targets for teams with spots to fill. They are also cheaper than free agents. Mendez will be a target also. Cozart might be, but since he is nothing special offensively he might be all right.

I believe Mesaraco will be on the 40 man roster. Sappelt has another year before being rule five eligible.

[dougdirt]

That may or may not be true. Dorn didn't go anywhere last year because he had never had an outstanding season.

Both he and Vailaika have done well this year so they will be targets for teams with spots to fill. They are also cheaper than free agents. Mendez will be a target also. Cozart might be, but since he is nothing special offensively he might be all right.


Zack Cozart would absolutely 100% be taken before Dorn or Valaika.

[Kingspoint]

Trades made of prospects now are "Sell Low" trades.

Trades made to acquire prospects now are "Buy Low" trades.

Do you want to "Sell Low" or "Buy Low"?

If Walt can find a "piece that fits", meaning one of the following:

1. A Quality Reliever, preferably Left-handed
2. A Quality Left-Fielder
3. A Quality Utility Infielder (basically a tweener Starter/UI)

....then I'm sure he's willing to "Sell Low" a couple of prospects.

Otherwise, nobody in the Minors are being moved until the off-season, when you can get fair market value for them.

I left out Shortstop on purpose because I don't think Walt will go down that road as Dusty loves Cabrera, Cabrera's having a great July (for him), and Cabrera keeps coming up with some quality "veteran" moments.

[camisadelgolf]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Provided the Reds plan on buying out Orlando Cabrera's contract, it would make a lot of sense if the Reds were to trade Aaron Harang for Chin-lung Hu in August. It wouldn't be a huge salary increase for the Dodgers, who should probably expect Vicente Padilla to implode or John Ely to get tired before the end of the season. Because they already have Rafael Furcal, they don't have much room for Hu since he'll be out of options after this year. He would be a good addition for the Reds because he would compete with Janish and Cozart for the majority of playing time at shortstop next season.

[mth123]

The Louisville roster is full of players who will very soon need major league playing time.

Alonso, Francisco, Dorn, Valaika, Cozart.

(I assume Frazier could use another year at AAA after his slow start this season.)

On the pitching side there are Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, Jukish, Del Rosario, Burton, Herrera.

And maybe Fisher and Smith go to AAA when Izzy and Springer come up. That only adds to the logjam.

The Reds obviously don't have room for all of them. They can't keep them at AAA as insurance forever.

Isn't there a logjam that requires some promotions and some deals? Reds can't just sit with all these guys at AAA indefinitely.

Views?

I could not agree more. I'll go a step further and say that now is most certainly the time. I love the next several years of Reds baseball. The young talent should provide a nice competitive run for us long suffering fans, but even with that, I'm just not real sure that they will ever be any better than they are in 2010.

I don't expect the Reds to get an .800 plus OPS from a gold glove winning second baseman again in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect the Reds to have a top defender with a .900 OPS bat at third any time in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect a catching tandem that has a starter with a .773 OPS with a back-up who is a better defender with an OPS of .850, but they are getting it now.

The CF is an elite defender who may improve a little if he can figure when to swing and when not to, but he's providing some pop, he's not an automatic out, he runs like the wind and while I don't expect a drop-off, other than a couple more times per month on base, I don't really expect a ton of improvement over what they are getting at this position now.

The young rotation is competitive almost every night and while Cueto may take his step forward and Volquez may resume his role as the strong number three, the team will likely lose one of the top innings eaters in baseball over the last five years, who takes the ball and lays down a solid foundation of competitve innings that gives the team a chance to win far more often than not. The two youngest guys (Leake and Wood) might be pretty decent starters for a while, but its going to be hard for either to top their debuts. Improvement will need to come from a couple of hard throwers with control issues (and one an injury problem) in Bailey and Chapman and its not any kind of certainty that the loss of Arroyo and the likely reversion to being human by Leake and Wood can be entirely offset. Its hard to say that they'll be any better than what they are getting right now.

Finally, as good as he is, I don't have any expectations that the Reds are going to have a first baseman who leads the league in HR, Slg % and OBP. They are getting it now and it's pretty rare. I'd expect that type of production will fall off either because its near impossible for a player to sustain or because any player who can sustain it is the second coming of Lou Gehrig and probably not long for Cincinnati.

The team has lots of major league caliber kids on the way, but they really aren't going to play in front of the guys already here. Cozart, Mesoraco and Chapman may provide some good play to help offset the drop we're likely to see from several spots (along with improvement from Jay Bruce), but the other guys may only be slight improvements on the margins. Carlos Fisher, for example, might be a pretty good 7th inning guy but he's probably not the difference in winning and losing. Matt Maloney might have a career as a back-end guy, but he's not cracking the Reds rotation. Todd Frazier may excel in the role that Miguel Cairo currently plays, but the Reds found Cairo and he's doing quite well for just as cheap and its not worth passing on a key upgrade to hang onto the kid. Yonder Alonso has a reputation as a hitter and I still think he will be, but he plays a position filled with bats and while we all hope for the next Pujols, Lyle Overbay is more realistic. Potentialy nice player, not any kind of upgrade to what is already here. For those that have been around a while, think Danny Driessen trying to replace Tony Perez, nice player, he'll never be as productive. Deal him for an upgrade somewhere else.

Teams win championships by capitalizing on having a roster full of career years when the competition is down and while we all want to see this team grow throughout the decade, we're getting that right now. Having all these major league caliber kids is great for a team trying to find its way from 75 wins to 88 or so, but the next step requires upgrades at the top of the roster not more interchangeable parts at the bottom. I don't think there will be a better time and this team should be aiming for a championship in 2010.

[cinreds21]

Yea, Valaka is already on the 40, he was put on last off-season when he was Rule V eligible.

[Roush's socks]

I could not agree more. I'll go a step further and say that now is most certainly the time. I love the next several years of Reds baseball. The young talent should provide a nice competitive run for us long suffering fans, but even with that, I'm just not real sure that they will ever be any better than they are in 2010.

I don't expect the Reds to get an .800 plus OPS from a gold glove winning second baseman again in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect the Reds to have a top defender with a .900 OPS bat at third any time in the next five years, but they are getting it now.

I don't expect a catching tandem that has a starter with a .773 OPS with a back-up who is a better defender with an OPS of .850, but they are getting it now.

The CF is an elite defender who may improve a little if he can figure when to swing and when not to, but he's providing some pop, he's not an automatic out, he runs like the wind and while I don't expect a drop-off, other than a couple more times per month on base, I don't really expect a ton of improvement over what they are getting at this position now.

The young rotation is competitive almost every night and while Cueto may take his step forward and Volquez may resume his role as the strong number three, the team will likely lose one of the top innings eaters in baseball over the last five years, who takes the ball and lays down a solid foundation of competitve innings that gives the team a chance to win far more often than not. The two youngest guys (Leake and Wood) might be pretty decent starters for a while, but its going to be hard for either to top their debuts. Improvement will need to come from a couple of hard throwers with control issues (and one an injury problem) in Bailey and Chapman and its not any kind of certainty that the loss of Arroyo and the likely reversion to being human by Leake and Wood can be entirely offset. Its hard to say that they'll be any better than what they are getting right now.

Finally, as good as he is, I don't have any expectations that the Reds are going to have a first baseman who leads the league in HR, Slg % and OBP. They are getting it now and it's pretty rare. I'd expect that type of production will fall off either because its near impossible for a player to sustain or because any player who can sustain it is the second coming of Lou Gehrig and probably not long for Cincinnati.

The team has lots of major league caliber kids on the way, but they really aren't going to play in front of the guys already here. Cozart, Mesoraco and Chapman may provide some good play to help offset the drop we're likely to see from several spots (along with improvement from Jay Bruce), but the other guys may only be slight improvements on the margins. Carlos Fisher, for example, might be a pretty good 7th inning guy but he's probably not the difference in winning and losing. Matt Maloney might have a career as a back-end guy, but he's not cracking the Reds rotation. Todd Frazier may excel in the role that Miguel Cairo currently plays, but the Reds found Cairo and he's doing quite well for just as cheap and its not worth passing on a key upgrade to hang onto the kid. Yonder Alonso has a reputation as a hitter and I still think he will be, but he plays a position filled with bats and while we all hope for the next Pujols, Lyle Overbay is more realistic. Potentialy nice player, not any kind of upgrade to what is already here. For those that have been around a while, think Danny Driessen trying to replace Tony Perez, nice player, he'll never be as productive. Deal him for an upgrade somewhere else.

Teams win championships by capitalizing on having a roster full of career years when the competition is down and while we all want to see this team grow throughout the decade, we're getting that right now. Having all these major league caliber kids is great for a team trying to find its way from 75 wins to 88 or so, but the next step requires upgrades at the top of the roster not more interchangeable parts at the bottom. I don't think there will be a better time and this team should be aiming for a championship in 2010.

Only 3-4 key Reds players are past or passing their prime: Rolen, Phillips, Arroyo and Cordero. And Phillips is not really that old. All of the others- Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Leake, Cueto, Volquez, Wood are under 27. So why do you think the Reds are peaking now in 2010? I think 2011-13 are going to be the seasons when they have the most players in their peak seasons, plus young guys like Chapman, Fransisco and Cozart coming up. But I do agree that if the Reds have a chance to make a deal for an impact player they should move any of- Yonder, Maloney, Frazier, LeCure as part of a package.

[Vottomatic]

One thing I'll say when projecting prospects is that you never know how good they might be. For example, nobody knew Votto would turn out to be this good. And everyone thought Jay Bruce was the coming of the greatest Reds hitter of all time.

Some guys continue to get better. Some guys don't. Votto is one of those guys who continues to just get better and better. So don't ever count any prospects out.

Alot of people, including me, counted Mesoraco out.

[mth123]

Only 3-4 key Reds players are past or passing their prime: Rolen, Phillips, Arroyo and Cordero. And Phillips is not really that old. All of the others- Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Leake, Cueto, Volquez, Wood are under 27. So why do you think the Reds are peaking now in 2010? I think 2011-13 are going to be the seasons when they have the most players in their peak seasons, plus young guys like Chapman, Fransisco and Cozart coming up. But I do agree that if the Reds have a chance to make a deal for an impact player they should move any of- Yonder, Maloney, Frazier, LeCure as part of a package.

They are getting years that won't be topped or probably not even repeated by half the line-up (C, 1B, 2B and 3B). CF is probably as good as its going to get. They may improve in LF, but the hot streak there in May is largely what propelled this team from also ran into top contention. I think they'll see improvement in RF, but at best it offsets the likely drop at other areas. Cozart may settle the issue at SS, but he'll help the budget more than on field production. They lead the league in runs scored. How do you foresee any improvement there?

The four key youngsters (Cueto, Votto, Bruce and Volquez) are all arb eligible after 2010 and coupled with the raise for Phillips is going to make this team costly pretty quickly. I could see some improvement in the rotation but expecting more from Cueto is probably not realistic. A healthy Volquez might be a good addition, but he probably only ends up replacing the production the team is getting from Arroyo. Volquez might end up a better pitcher, but I have my doubts that the team will win a much greater percentage of his starts than they do Arroyo's. Wood and Leake are still iffy in my book. Leake is already looking like a guy who got the first time around the league boost in April and May and has dropped off somewhat IMO. I expect the same from Wood in a month or two. I think both will be solid mid to back end starters, but they aren't going to provide a lot more than what they (combined with 2010 Harang) have provided in 2010. I just have a hard time seeing how this team is going to improve without adding some real impact talent and since they are getting the career years now, it would seem that this would have been the year to splurge for a Lee or an Oswalt. The key might be Bailey or Chapman fulfilling their potential as a TOR starter, beyond that, I just don't see how this team is any better down the road than what they have played.

[medford]

Expect more from Cueto? Why not, the kids like 24 isn't he? Why can't he get more consistant, waste less pitches, and pitch deep into games on a regular basis? Mike Leake? He should improve w/ a few more years of seasoning. Volquez? Get him fully returned from injury, you've got the upside of Chapman, what's not to like about Wood, and there is still Homer who we hope becomes the Homer of the end of last year, if not a solid trading chip.

Offensively, I agree Phillips is in his prime, but it seems like the 1st season in well ever that he's taking his role more seriously, not swinging for the fences each at bat, accepting his role and running with it. he's still young enough that I wouldn't expect a huge drop off from him any time soon assuming he keeps the same approach which seems to have been fueled by Rolen (and perhaps that's a big assumption) Votto? No reason why he can't remain one of the top 5 bats in the NL for the next 3-4 years. We all hope/expect Bruce to get better. Certainly Stubbs isn't done developing his bat. Not happy w/ Caberera? Many think/believe Cozart could provide similar offensive numbers w/ a better glove right now. Why would Hannigan drop off, and just look at the stud Meserasco is developing into plus the potential of Grandal. I see no reason to believe they won't get as much out of the catching spot the next.

So there's 1b, CF, RF, SS, 2b & Catcher that all seem like they could provide a similar level of play both offensively and defensively, if not better at least thru Phillips contract. So leaves them w/ 3b & LF to worry about. Certainly I don't expect Rolen to produce like he has so far this season, and even w/ his injuries, I don't expect him to play as much as he has so far this year going forward. That is where the Reds really need a guy like Francisico or Frasier to step up. LF is one of the easier holes to fill, and can potentially be filled from w/n by guys like Francisco or Frazier or Heisey. Using prospects to make a trade for a big bat in LF seems like the best idea going forward as Yonder doesn't appear capable of playing it.

In the Bullpen Massett is finally showing some consistancy. What's not to like about Logan or Jordan Smith. I haven't counted Bill Bray out from reaching his potential next year after fully recovering from TJS. Throw in guys like Donnie Joseph and there seems to be enough power arms and sinker arms that can headline the bullpen for several years moving foward.

On top of that, when those guys get expensive, the Reds have the promise of Yorman & Hamilton, LaMarre in CF, Duran and Arias and many others. I see no reason why 2010 is the peak for the Reds over the next 5 seasons. I certainly hope its not the peak. I see nothing wrong with a go for it now approach, heck I even embrace it, but don't throw away prospects on poor trades just because you think you'll never get another shot in the next 5 years. There is no reason to believe this team can't consider itself a legit threat for the playoffs next year and the next several beyond. All the pieces are there, some will dissapoint, some will exceed expectations (hopefully), but they're well set up for a 5-10 year run if their smart and guys pan out like their projected to.

[GOYA]

Alot of people, including me, counted Mesoraco out.

And Mesoraco still might not be a productive big leaguer. There are just no guarantees. But some are better bets than others.

[HokieRed]

I think we're setting up for a period in which we can be very competitive for a period of years for the division championship and a spot in the playoffs. The keys to that are the general overall depth and especially the depth of starting pitching. From this I conclude several things. It's imperative 1. Not to overvalue some of the starters and thus think others are expendable; I'd not, for instance, be in a hurry to move any of them, even as far down the depth chart as LeCure; 2. Avoid making any really bad trades, doing some kind of high risk trade to upgrade the team dramatically all in one move; 3. Be sure to get a major league player every year in the first round of the draft--look at the difference this has made since 2004!; 4. Protect your depth at every position so that you don't have to give disproportionately large contracts to anybody, even Joey Votto (in short, don't trade Yonder Alonso).

[mth123]

Expect more from Cueto? Why not, the kids like 24 isn't he? Why can't he get more consistant, waste less pitches, and pitch deep into games on a regular basis? Mike Leake? He should improve w/ a few more years of seasoning. Volquez? Get him fully returned from injury, you've got the upside of Chapman, what's not to like about Wood, and there is still Homer who we hope becomes the Homer of the end of last year, if not a solid trading chip.

Offensively, I agree Phillips is in his prime, but it seems like the 1st season in well ever that he's taking his role more seriously, not swinging for the fences each at bat, accepting his role and running with it. he's still young enough that I wouldn't expect a huge drop off from him any time soon assuming he keeps the same approach which seems to have been fueled by Rolen (and perhaps that's a big assumption) Votto? No reason why he can't remain one of the top 5 bats in the NL for the next 3-4 years. We all hope/expect Bruce to get better. Certainly Stubbs isn't done developing his bat. Not happy w/ Caberera? Many think/believe Cozart could provide similar offensive numbers w/ a better glove right now. Why would Hannigan drop off, and just look at the stud Meserasco is developing into plus the potential of Grandal. I see no reason to believe they won't get as much out of the catching spot the next.

So there's 1b, CF, RF, SS, 2b & Catcher that all seem like they could provide a similar level of play both offensively and defensively, if not better at least thru Phillips contract. So leaves them w/ 3b & LF to worry about. Certainly I don't expect Rolen to produce like he has so far this season, and even w/ his injuries, I don't expect him to play as much as he has so far this year going forward. That is where the Reds really need a guy like Francisico or Frasier to step up. LF is one of the easier holes to fill, and can potentially be filled from w/n by guys like Francisco or Frazier or Heisey. Using prospects to make a trade for a big bat in LF seems like the best idea going forward as Yonder doesn't appear capable of playing it.

In the Bullpen Massett is finally showing some consistancy. What's not to like about Logan or Jordan Smith. I haven't counted Bill Bray out from reaching his potential next year after fully recovering from TJS. Throw in guys like Donnie Joseph and there seems to be enough power arms and sinker arms that can headline the bullpen for several years moving foward.

On top of that, when those guys get expensive, the Reds have the promise of Yorman & Hamilton, LaMarre in CF, Duran and Arias and many others. I see no reason why 2010 is the peak for the Reds over the next 5 seasons. I certainly hope its not the peak. I see nothing wrong with a go for it now approach, heck I even embrace it, but don't throw away prospects on poor trades just because you think you'll never get another shot in the next 5 years. There is no reason to believe this team can't consider itself a legit threat for the playoffs next year and the next several beyond. All the pieces are there, some will dissapoint, some will exceed expectations (hopefully), but they're well set up for a 5-10 year run if their smart and guys pan out like their projected to.

I don't know. I think this team has just about everything going right and they are around a 90 win bunch. They can stay there with no changes and continued health and contend for a few years and hopefully the younger guys like Y-Rod, Duran and Hamilton can replace the production of the others who price themselves out of town, but to move up a level, I think they need an impact arm for the TOR and another impact bat.

On the pitching side, Cueto and Leake have pitched pretty well, but in my estimation Cueto looked like a guy who is a strong number three and he's pitching that way. He took a couple years, but he's reached his top level and that's great, but just because he's reached those heights in 2010, doesn't make his top level any higher. He might put together a season where the ball bounces his way and his BABIP takes him a little higher, but even though he's just 23, expecting more from him is a big gamble. He's more likely to get worse than better. I'd personally plan on him staying the same. Leake also projected as a mid-rotation guy and when he was drafted the trade off was thought to be more near readiness and less room for improvemnt. He was amazing in April and especially May, but that was against a league who'd seen very little of him. In his case it was even more extreme because not only was it his first look against major leaguers, but no one on any team had even faced him in the minors. He had a first time around the league bump that was supercharged by the fact he'd not even pitched in the minors. Hopefully he'll have other dominant stretches and he can probably improve a bit from the guy we're seeing in July and he's surely better than the June version, but I'd expect more of an innings eater who keeps you in the game (which is a pretty darned good pitcher) than I would an ace. Volquez is probably along the lines of Cueto and I expect him to be better in 2011 than he is now, but with Arroyo's time coming to an end, that's probably a wash as far as overall production goes. Volquez might be a little sexier with the high 90's fastball and the dominant stuff, but its hard for me to believe he'll be more productive than Arroyo. The Reds simply win a pretty high percentage of Arroyo's starts and he frequently gives the pen a break as well. I think the return of Volquez merely offsets Arroyo's exit in the next year or two. I do think Wood is going to be a fine back-end starter. Some have comped him to Ted Lilly and that would be good if he could pitch like that. Right now, he is also helped by his newness to the opposition and I'm not buying the early dominance. I hope he can become what Lilly was/is but I'd expect his production will be similar to what the Reds have received from the combination of he and Harang in 2010. It will be fine in a rotation spot, but its not really growing from where the team is now. Any improvement from within rides on Bailey or Chapman filling that final spot of the rotation with a legitimate ace. It could happen and of the things that might take this team a step higher than where it is now, it may even be the most likely to happen, but as a whole, all these things going right is pretty iffy. Some one probably falls short. Some one might get injured.

On the offensive side, this team is going to have a hard time duplicating the 2010 team. Lets start with 3B. Rolen is having a monster year. Its pretty unexpected when looking at his 2007 through 2009 production. He's signed for a couple more years and I think he'll hold down that position capably, but looking at his last three seasons and the date on his birth certificate makes me expect a pretty big drop in production from the .924 OPS we've seen in 2010. At 2B, Brandon Phillips is a fantastic defender and his .810 OPS is a nice surprise. Maybe I'm selling him a little short, but my expectations are more along the lines of the .750ish guy we saw in 2008. Even if he's stepped up to a new level, in 2011 he becomes an $11 Million man and then there is a decision that the team must face. In spite of the Reds depth of near ready guys, there is simply no one who can fill the shoes of the 2010 versions of Phillips and Rolen. Those spots are probably as good as it gets. The Catching tandem of Hernandez and Hanigan are both putting up solid numbers. Hernandez with an OPS in the .775 range and Hanigan at .838 right now. Ramon will be 35 and its his best year in 5 years. Hanigan will be 30 and he's never been an .800 OPS guy. The Reds do have a young player in Mesoraco who may be able to replicate this production, but expecting that or more is probably another thing that would have to go perfectly IMO. At 1B, Joey Votto is simply a stud. He is leading the league in just about everything that counts including HRs and all three slash stats AVG/OBP/SLG. He'll continue to be good, but expecting no drop at all is just not facing reality. Jay Bruce is really the only offensive player who realistically has enough room for improvement to make an impact to offset all this. Again though, we'd probably need Bruce to fulfill his potential just to offset the drop we'll see at 3B. Mesoraco may be able to replicate the production at C. But even if all that happens, at best we replicate the 90ish win season of 2010. Chances are, the team may not be as good.

This year we know its all going right. Its the year to go for it IMO.

[Kingspoint]

As great as "The Big Red Machine" was, they only won 2 World Series. Just one more than the Paul O'Neil/Eric Davis/Barry Larkin/Jose Rijo/Nasty Boys group.

Why sell out during the first half of the first year that this new group will make their run. That group looking to be:

Votto/Phillips/Bruce/Heisey/Stubbs/Cozart/Valaika/Volquez/Chapman/
Cueto/Bailey/Leake/Wood/Ondrusek/Hanigan/Mesoraco/Alonso/others

This group should get more opportunities than the Larkin/Davis/Rijo/Nasty Boys group got. There's twice the talent here and two more playoff spots per season available. I'll be shocked if:

Heisey/Mesoraco/Cozart/Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Volquez/Leake/Wood/Chapman

reach the playoffs less than 4 times each. I expect 5 or 6 times. Out of those, I'm hoping for 2 World Series trips. The REDS have won 9 Straight World Series games, so I'm seeing 2 World Series Championships out of this group, matching the total of "The Big Red Machine". I don't think 2010 is the year to win the World Series as our best Starting Pitchers are too inexperienced, but I do think we win this Division this season.

The attendance this weekend speaks for itself what the fans think.

[mth123]

As great as "The Big Red Machine" was, they only won 2 World Series. Just one more than the Paul O'Neil/Eric Davis/Barry Larkin/Jose Rijo/Nasty Boys group.

Why sell out during the first half of the first year that this new group will make their run. That group looking to be:

Votto/Phillips/Bruce/Heisey/Stubbs/Cozart/Valaika/Volquez/Chapman/
Cueto/Bailey/Leake/Wood/Ondrusek/Hanigan/Mesoraco/Alonso/others

This group should get more opportunities than the Larkin/Davis/Rijo/Nasty Boys group got. There's twice the talent here and two more playoff spots per season available. I'll be shocked if:

Heisey/Mesoraco/Cozart/Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Volquez/Leake/Wood/Chapman

reach the playoffs less than 4 times each. I expect 5 or 6 times. Out of those, I'm hoping for 2 World Series trips. The REDS have won 9 Straight World Series games, so I'm seeing 2 World Series Championships out of this group, matching the total of "The Big Red Machine". I don't think 2010 is the year to win the World Series as our best Starting Pitchers are too inexperienced, but I do think we win this Division this season.

The attendance this weekend speaks for itself what the fans think.

Do you seriously expect this group to perform better in the coming years? A 3B with a .900+ OPS? .800+ OPS production from a Gold Glover at 2B? Plus/Plus production from both sides of the catching tandem? League Leading AVE/OBP/Slg and HR at 1B? You really think a team with that going for them is going to improve from there? I think its about as good as its going to get and any development from the younger guys is just going to try to compensate from the production drop thet we'll see from those guys.

You go for it when the career years are occurring. That's 2010.

[JKam]

Didn't Alonso sign a major league contract out of Miami? When does he have to be on the 40 or 25 man roster?

[camisadelgolf]

Didn't Alonso sign a major league contract out of Miami? When does he have to be on the 40 or 25 man roster?
He's currently on the 40-man roster and must be on the 25-man roster to stay by 2013.

[Mario-Rijo]

Do you seriously expect this group to perform better in the coming years? A 3B with a .900+ OPS? .800+ OPS production from a Gold Glover at 2B? Plus/Plus production from both sides of the catching tandem? League Leading AVE/OBP/Slg and HR at 1B? You really think a team with that going for them is going to improve from there? I think its about as good as its going to get and any development from the younger guys is just going to try to compensate from the production drop thet we'll see from those guys.

You go for it when the career years are occurring. That's 2010.

I agree you go for it but I don't see why this team won't be just as competitive as they are right now moving forward. The Cubs have no farm, the 'Stros have no farm, the Cards have no farm, the Brewers have no pitching in their farm and the Pirates are suspect at best even if their farm continues to spit out a few good guys.

[Roush's socks]

Only Rolen and Phillips are epected to decline in the next 2-3 years. Bruce, Stubbs, Cozart/?, someone better in LF,--- there is plenty of room to improve the offense to compensate for Rolen and Phillips decline.

Look at it this way. No one in the OF is having a good offensive season. The chances are great that the Reds OF will improve in hitting over the next 2-3 years whether it is these guys or someone new.

[Kingspoint]

Do you seriously expect this group to perform better in the coming years? A 3B with a .900+ OPS? .800+ OPS production from a Gold Glover at 2B? Plus/Plus production from both sides of the catching tandem? League Leading AVE/OBP/Slg and HR at 1B? You really think a team with that going for them is going to improve from there? I think its about as good as its going to get and any development from the younger guys is just going to try to compensate from the production drop thet we'll see from those guys.

You go for it when the career years are occurring. That's 2010.

Yes. The team will be better next year than this year. The team will be better the two or three years after that, too, than this year. Our pitching will improve every year for the next 5 years. Our Offense will be just as good as it will be more balanced. Instead of all of the Offense going through two guys in Votto and Rolen, it will be going through 8, 9, and 10 guys. We won't have guys OPS-ing under .700. It will be a much more balanced team that won't get shut out 8 times in a season, yet alone 16 times in a season like they will be this year. The Offense will be better built for the playoffs as will the pitching be better built for the playoffs. They'll have a shot at 96 wins every season.

[mth123]

Yes. The team will be better next year than this year. The team will be better the two or three years after that, too, than this year. Our pitching will improve every year for the next 5 years. Our Offense will be just as good as it will be more balanced. Instead of all of the Offense going through two guys in Votto and Rolen, it will be going through 8, 9, and 10 guys. We won't have guys OPS-ing under .700. It will be a much more balanced team that won't get shut out 8 times in a season, yet alone 16 times in a season like they will be this year. The Offense will be better built for the playoffs as will the pitching be better built for the playoffs. They'll have a shot at 96 wins every season.

I think that is a rosy picture that counts on everything going perfectly. IMO, offense is only as good as the 3, 4 and 5 hitters. The Reds are getting MVP performance from two of those spots and the third had an unconscious month, is pretty good with RISP and is among the leaders in RBI. Voila! The team is leading the league in offense. As those guys fall off, you can count on leading the league again. I think expecting it is foolish. You won't make that up by improving the 7 and 8 holes in the order.

On the pitching side, I do think some individual pitchers will improve, but this team is getting 300 competitive to dominant IP from Arroyo and Rhodes that will need to be made-up and kids like Leake and Wood repeating is no sure thing. Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all boom or bust types and counting on all three to boom is pie in the sky optimism.

2010 is the first year of this team's window. It may not get any better and letting this opportunity go by because we expect everything to go right and the window to stay open is wasteful. We haven't even mentioned finances and how hard it may be to keep this group intact beyond 2012. Rhodes is probaby gone after 2010. Arroyo after 2011 at best. Phillips probably after 2011 or 2012. If Votto keeps it up, he'll be a $15 Million man by 2012. Rolen could be done in an instant, but probably is gone after 2012. I can go on and on.

[mdccclxix]

I think that is a rosy picture that counts on everything going perfectly. IMO, offense is only as good as the 3, 4 and 5 hitters. The Reds are getting MVP performance from two of those spots and the third had an unconscious month, is pretty good with RISP and is among the leaders in RBI. Voila! The team is leading the league in offense. As those guys fall off, you can count on leading the league again. I think expecting it is foolish. You won't make that up by improving the 7 and 8 holes in the order.

On the pitching side, I do think some individual pitchers will improve, but this team is getting 300 competitive to dominant IP from Arroyo and Rhodes that will need to be made-up and kids like Leake and Wood repeating is no sure thing. Volquez, Bailey and Chapman are all boom or bust types and counting on all three to boom is pie in the sky optimism.

2010 is the first year of this team's window. It may not get any better and letting this opportunity go by because we expect everything to go right and the window to stay open is wasteful. We haven't even mentioned finances and how hard it may be to keep this group intact beyond 2012. Rhodes is probaby gone after 2010. Arroyo after 2011 at best. Phillips probably after 2011 or 2012. If Votto keeps it up, he'll be a $15 Million man by 2012. Rolen could be done in an instant, but probably is gone after 2012. I can go on and on.

I think Walt would say, "these things have a way of working themselves out".

I appreciate your observation that this may be lightening in a bottle, just look at Seattle.

However, most of your scenario will not take effect until 2012. Still, even then Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Volky, Cueto, Wood and on and on will possibly still be there. Only Rolen figures to drop off far by then.

One problem I have with your argument is that players you'd like to trade for big chips now (really, which ones will make a huge difference?) will be cheap solutions later, so the all in approach will not be sustainable.

[mth123]

I think Walt would say, "these things have a way of working themselves out".

I appreciate your observation that this may be lightening in a bottle, just look at Seattle.

However, most of your scenario will not take effect until 2012. Still, even then Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Volky, Cueto, Wood and on and on will possibly still be there. Only Rolen figures to drop off far by then.

One problem I have with your argument is that players you'd like to trade for big chips now (really, which ones will make a huge difference?) will be cheap solutions later, so the all in approach will not be sustainable.

Don't know about 2012, The double MVP seasons aren't likely repeated. Those 300 IP (more than 20% of a team's season total) could be gone after this year. Rolen will be another year older next year. Who knows if he stays healthy, requires even more rest or just reverts to the 2008 guy. Phillips could revert as well. The production from the catching spot probably won't be repeated and even Votto may be having a career year that sees a drop-off in 2011. The only thing we know for sure is that they have a real opportunity in 2010.

[mdccclxix]

Don't know about 2012, The double MVP seasons aren't likely repeated. Those 300 IP (more than 20% of a team's season total) could be gone after this year. Rolen will be another year older next year. Who knows if he stays healthy, requires even more rest or just reverts to the 2008 guy. Phillips could revert as well. The production from the catching spot probably won't be repeated and even Votto may be having a career year that sees a drop-off in 2011. The only thing we know for sure is that they have a real opportunity in 2010.

I disagree, we know we have a real opportunity in 2011 and 2012 to compete. Whether any of those things you say come true is as unclear as whether someone gets injured soon or St. Louis reels off 15 in a row while the Reds bomb the west coast trip. Nothing's for sure, so why mortgage the future for spare parts? Many teams were asking high prices for their difference makers this year. See Washington and Toronto.