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View Full Version : how is Greinke an 'ace' and better then what we have?



brm7675
07-27-2010, 11:30 AM
If you look at his numbers he has had one very good season, everything else has been okay, but not earth shattering and not any better then say Cueto or Bronson or Wood or Leake or even Volquez can't post. So exactly why should we give up good young talent for this guy when we have equal to or if not better talent already on the pitching staff?

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 11:49 AM
He has an ERA of 3.18 over his last 138 GS in the AL and you seriously think that Wood, Leake and Arroyo are in the same league?

GIDP
07-27-2010, 11:55 AM
Leake and Wood havent had enough innings to really know. Odds are they arent better though just looking at peripherals.

Greinke with out a doubt is better than Arroyo and its not really close.

Krawhitham
07-27-2010, 12:08 PM
Since 2007 Arroyo has 75 QS and Greinke has 67


Arroyo has 98 QS since joining the Reds, name another pitcher with more

brm7675
07-27-2010, 12:18 PM
3.97 - 26 Homeruns surrenderd
5.80 - 23 homeruns given up
4.26 - 1 homerun given (only pitched in 3 games)
3.69 - 12 home runs given up
3.47 - 21 homeruns given up
2.16 - 11 homeruns given up
4.01 - already given up 14 homeruns

Sorry, but while those numbers are nice, I don't consider those numbers 'ACE" material type numbers, and looking at this HR totals, given GABP, i would be scared to see what he would surrender here.

GIDP
07-27-2010, 12:41 PM
Since 2007 Arroyo has 75 QS and Greinke has 67


Arroyo has 98 QS since joining the Reds, name another pitcher with more

Arroyo has also started 22 more games during that time.

67% of Greinkes starts have been QSs
61% of Arroyos have been

Then figure in that Greinke has better K rates, BB rates, GB rates I think the discussion is very one sided.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 12:44 PM
Arroyo has also started 22 more games during that time.
.

To me this is also key, why does Arroyo have 22 more starts? Arroyo for the most part is a innings eater, look at last night, gives our bullpen a night off. So yes the Royals pitcher is good, but right now given the makeup of our pitching staff I take Bronson. If you look at Greinke, he only has two seasons with over 200 innings pitched and one of those was just over 200 innings. Durability is a key stat in my book.

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 12:46 PM
3.97 - 26 Homeruns surrenderd
5.80 - 23 homeruns given up
4.26 - 1 homerun given (only pitched in 3 games)
3.69 - 12 home runs given up
3.47 - 21 homeruns given up
2.16 - 11 homeruns given up
4.01 - already given up 14 homeruns

Sorry, but while those numbers are nice, I don't consider those numbers 'ACE" material type numbers, and looking at this HR totals, given GABP, i would be scared to see what he would surrender here.

Wouldn't want Halladay then. He's given up 13, 11, 19, 15, 18, 22 and 13 so far this year. Sabathia has given up 20, 19, 17, 20, 19, 18 and 12 so far this year.

Home runs happen. The difference between a good pitcher and a bad pitcher is usually everything besides home runs. Greinke K's a ton of guys, walks very few and doesn't give up a lot of hits. That is what allows him and other TOR guys to succeed.

And FWIW, since the remodeling of Kaufman after the 2008 season, it has been more of a hitters park than GABP.

GIDP
07-27-2010, 12:51 PM
To me this is also key, why does Arroyo have 22 more starts? Arroyo for the most part is a innings eater, look at last night, gives our bullpen a night off. So yes the Royals pitcher is good, but right now given the makeup of our pitching staff I take Bronson. If you look at Greinke, he only has two seasons with over 200 innings pitched and one of those was just over 200 innings. Durability is a key stat in my book.

Because Greinke was 23 and had 38 appearances as a reliever in 2007
Greinke has thrown more innings since 2008 as well.

PTjvs
07-27-2010, 12:51 PM
If you look at his numbers he has had one very good season, everything else has been okay, but not earth shattering and not any better then say Cueto or Bronson or Wood or Leake or even Volquez can't post. So exactly why should we give up good young talent for this guy when we have equal to or if not better talent already on the pitching staff?

If Greinke is not better than what the Reds have in house, would you mind naming say a dozen pitchers that are? How many total MLB starters would you say are better than what the Reds currently have in house?

It is natural for a team's fans to overvalue their players, but you are really taking that to irrational extremes here.

jvs

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 12:56 PM
To me this is also key, why does Arroyo have 22 more starts? Arroyo for the most part is a innings eater, look at last night, gives our bullpen a night off. So yes the Royals pitcher is good, but right now given the makeup of our pitching staff I take Bronson. If you look at Greinke, he only has two seasons with over 200 innings pitched and one of those was just over 200 innings. Durability is a key stat in my book.

Greinke has never been on the DL for any type of physical issue. He had his mental thing in 2006 and the Royals had him start and relieve in 2007.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 01:17 PM
If Greinke is not better than what the Reds have in house, would you mind naming say a dozen pitchers that are? How many total MLB starters would you say are better than what the Reds currently have in house?

It is natural for a team's fans to overvalue their players, but you are really taking that to irrational extremes here.

jvs

right now with our base of Cueto/Arroyo/Wood/Leake/Volqeuz, I would say the Cards have a better base 3, but would only take Carpenter and Wainwright over any of ours. No other team in the central can match us. In the east, I would take Halliday but no one else from teh phils. No one on the Mets impress me. J. Johnson from the fish maybe, but he is still young but I would take him. No one on the Braves impresses me that much. In the west the Padres overall have the best starting staff, but I believe they pitch in a pitchers park so the numbers are a bit scewed. Latos is having a nice season but is coming off the DL. Colorado has Jimenez and he is a stud so I would take him. Overall that is about it, for once from 1-5 I think the Reds starters are good.

Tampa Red
07-27-2010, 01:20 PM
Greinke would be the best pitcher to play for the Reds since Soto, and I'm not forgetting Rijo.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 01:34 PM
Greinke would be the best pitcher to play for the Reds since Soto, and I'm not forgetting Rijo.

how is that?

PTjvs
07-27-2010, 01:44 PM
right now with our base of Cueto/Arroyo/Wood/Leake/Volqeuz, I would say the Cards have a better base 3, but would only take Carpenter and Wainwright over any of ours. No other team in the central can match us. In the east, I would take Halliday but no one else from teh phils. No one on the Mets impress me. J. Johnson from the fish maybe, but he is still young but I would take him. No one on the Braves impresses me that much. In the west the Padres overall have the best starting staff, but I believe they pitch in a pitchers park so the numbers are a bit scewed. Latos is having a nice season but is coming off the DL. Colorado has Jimenez and he is a stud so I would take him. Overall that is about it, for once from 1-5 I think the Reds starters are good.

Are you really saying that the only other starters in the NL (the AL exists too, I have heard!) that would be upgrades for the reds are Carpenter, Wainwright, Halliday, Jminez and maaaaybe you would scrape the bottom of the barrel and take Josh Johnson?

I hope what you are actually saying is that it wouldn't be worth trading high end talent for marginal upgrades, which is a reasonable concept, in a vacuum. Thinking that Greinke is a marginal upgrade is fairly absurd though.

What the Reds have is a deep starting staff of pitchers that project to perform at average to above average levels. This is a good thing, and a much better situation than the well below average staff of the last several years. A deep starting staff insulates a team from the effect of injuries, and gives you more consistent pitching in the 4-5 slot, which helps immensely in the regular season.

Unfortunately, the goal of baseball isn't to win all the regular season games (just ask the 01 Mariners), but to win enough to make the playoffs, then win in the playoffs. Once you make the playoffs, your 4 & 5 starters, which have a great deal of say in whether you get to the playoffs or not, suddenly cease to matter much at all. You get to leverage your top end athletes more often, and top end quality is what counts. If you are truly a contender, and are trying to win it all this year, you bite the bullet and trade your B level young talent (Hi there Travis Wood) for A level veterans (Hi there Greinke!), and make your run.

Of course, you could argue that this team is too flawed to make a serious playoff run, and trading for any veterans would be a mistake. This doesn't really hold for Greinke however, as he is potentially much more than a rental.

jvs

markymark69
07-27-2010, 01:55 PM
A couple of factors appear to be overlooked in this argument.

One, Greinke won the Cy Young last year and has the capability to win more and he will not turn 27 until October. Some of the younger guys for the Reds could possibly win it in the future, but it's doubtful that Arroyo ever will or will even be considered.

Two, pitching in the AL, which has more offense because of the DH, the numbers don't always look as good when comparing to the NL.

Three, Greinke has never pitched for a good team. That can play a factor as well for a variety of different reasons.

If Greinke is available and the Reds could get him, he would help this team. That being said, a bat and a bullpen arm(s) would be more applicable to the Reds situation.

Griffey012
07-27-2010, 02:12 PM
right now with our base of Cueto/Arroyo/Wood/Leake/Volqeuz, I would say the Cards have a better base 3, but would only take Carpenter and Wainwright over any of ours. No other team in the central can match us. In the east, I would take Halliday but no one else from teh phils. No one on the Mets impress me. J. Johnson from the fish maybe, but he is still young but I would take him. No one on the Braves impresses me that much. In the west the Padres overall have the best starting staff, but I believe they pitch in a pitchers park so the numbers are a bit scewed. Latos is having a nice season but is coming off the DL. Colorado has Jimenez and he is a stud so I would take him. Overall that is about it, for once from 1-5 I think the Reds starters are good.

Josh Johnson MAYBE? Your entire argument may have just lost validity with that statement. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and has a pretty affordable contract extension he just signed. Ubaldo Jimenez only wishes he could keep up the pace Josh Johnson is putting forth this season.

Here is my NL list of pitchers I take over a guy currently in our rotation.

NL East: Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Strasburg.

NL Central: Wainwright, Carpenter, Gallardo.

NL West: Latos, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Kershaw

Probably twice as many in the AL.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 02:35 PM
A couple of factors appear to be overlooked in this argument.

One, Greinke won the Cy Young last year and has the capability to win more and he will not turn 27 until October. Some of the younger guys for the Reds could possibly win it in the future, but it's doubtful that Arroyo ever will or will even be considered.

Two, pitching in the AL, which has more offense because of the DH, the numbers don't always look as good when comparing to the NL.

Three, Greinke has never pitched for a good team. That can play a factor as well for a variety of different reasons.

If Greinke is available and the Reds could get him, he would help this team. That being said, a bat and a bullpen arm(s) would be more applicable to the Reds situation.

I don't believe winning the Cy young award is that huge of a deal, it's nice but it's not a choice based on any set stats, just what a bunch of writers think. Yes pitching in the AL is much tougher then pitching in the NL.

None of the Reds pitchers until this season have pitched for a good team AND 81 of their games pitched has come in if not the No. 1 rated hitters park, a top 5 candidate easily.

Basically adding Greinke would be nice, but I don't see it as a move that would put us ahead of the Cards, nor does his numbers to me show that Cueto or Leake can't be as good if not better.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 02:52 PM
Josh Johnson MAYBE? Your entire argument may have just lost validity with that statement. He is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and has a pretty affordable contract extension he just signed. Ubaldo Jimenez only wishes he could keep up the pace Josh Johnson is putting forth this season.

Here is my NL list of pitchers I take over a guy currently in our rotation.

NL East: Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Strasburg.

NL Central: Wainwright, Carpenter, Gallardo.

NL West: Latos, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Kershaw

Probably twice as many in the AL.


Hanson doesn't impress me, Santana is on the downside of his career, Hamels needs to show me he is the Hamel of a few years back and Strasburg needs to put up a complete season or two before I am ready to consider him. Gallardo? Really? Kershaw really?

bshall2105
07-27-2010, 02:59 PM
Hanson doesn't impress me, Santana is on the downside of his career, Hamels needs to show me he is the Hamel of a few years back and Strasburg needs to put up a complete season or two before I am ready to consider him. Gallardo? Really? Kershaw really?

Who is better than Gallardo on the Reds roster?

GIDP
07-27-2010, 03:03 PM
Who is better than Gallardo on the Reds roster?

Cueto is the only one I'd consider at the moment. Volquez being a wildcard.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 03:05 PM
Who is better than Gallardo on the Reds roster?


I would take Cueto over him, i think Leake will be better and he is much cheaper right now, if Volquez returns to form I take him. I would say it's pretty much a draw with Bronson.

Griffey012
07-27-2010, 03:09 PM
Hanson doesn't impress me, Santana is on the downside of his career, Hamels needs to show me he is the Hamel of a few years back and Strasburg needs to put up a complete season or two before I am ready to consider him. Gallardo? Really? Kershaw really?

I would advice taking off the Red lensed glasses and watching some of these guys throw. You say you won't consider Strasburg cause he needs to pitch a complete season or two...Out of the 5 guys in the rotation on Arroyo and Cueto have pitched 2 full season's for us.

You would not take Yovani Gallardo and his career 3.27 ERA and over 9 k's per 9 innings over a guy like Leake or Wood who are only in their 1st MLB season. Wood has a few starts under his belt and has been great, but has nothing on Gallardo's proven ability...just like with Greinke.

Hanson has TOR stuff. Santana is still only 31, and putting up great numbers this season, his k's are down but the rest of his numbers are there. Kershaw? Have you looked at his numbers?

Don't get me wrong I love the guys in our rotation, but there are still many pitchers in baseball who are better than some of our guys.

Griffey012
07-27-2010, 03:11 PM
I would take Cueto over him, i think Leake will be better and he is much cheaper right now, if Volquez returns to form I take him. I would say it's pretty much a draw with Bronson.

If we are bringing in the cost of the players it brings in a whole new spectrum of the debate. The original post of your I responded to mentioned nothing about money...I thought it was simply based off talent alone.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 03:19 PM
I would advice taking off the Red lensed glasses and watching some of these guys throw. You say you won't consider Strasburg cause he needs to pitch a complete season or two...Out of the 5 guys in the rotation on Arroyo and Cueto have pitched 2 full season's for us.

You would not take Yovani Gallardo and his career 3.27 ERA and over 9 k's per 9 innings over a guy like Leake or Wood who are only in their 1st MLB season. Wood has a few starts under his belt and has been great, but has nothing on Gallardo's proven ability...just like with Greinke.

Hanson has TOR stuff. Santana is still only 31, and putting up great numbers this season, his k's are down but the rest of his numbers are there. Kershaw? Have you looked at his numbers?

Don't get me wrong I love the guys in our rotation, but there are still many pitchers in baseball who are better than some of our guys.

No given the Reds payroll limitations, and the need to spend monies on Votto, Bruce and such down the road, I like what we have right now. I see Cueto as an ACE, i see both Wood and leake as being very strong 2/3 guys who with their style of pitching being around alot longer with fewer medical issues then say Strausberg will have. Hanson may have TOR stuff, but I see a pitcher who like Wood and Leake may, is struggling in his second season. Sanatana was at one time one of the best in the league, I think his best years are behind him and he is in a pitchers park. As with Kershaw, lets also remember he pitches in a pitchers park. The Reds pitchers are stuck 81 times a season in one of the top hitters park in baseball.

UofL3312
07-27-2010, 03:20 PM
I really hope this post is just a big joke. If not, you are putting way too much value into this Reds pitching staff. Our rotation this year is very strong, with more depth than we have seen in many years. That said, there are several pitchers in the NL alone that I would take over any of the Reds starters including Wainwright, Johnson, Halladay, Jimenez, Latos, Gallardo, Lincecum, Santana, and Kershaw.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 03:21 PM
If we are bringing in the cost of the players it brings in a whole new spectrum of the debate. The original post of your I responded to mentioned nothing about money...I thought it was simply based off talent alone.

in today's game you have to look at a number of things;

1. Cost of player
2. Home park of pitcher
3. Total team payroll.

I mean sure I would love to have 5 grade A starters, but no team outside of the Yankees could afford it. So, if I am going to add a pitcher the likes of Grenkie whom is going to shoot up teams costs alot sooner then say a Leake or Wood or Cueto will, then he had better be the next great thing, and while he is good, given all the factors you have to take into consideration, i will stick with what we have.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 03:22 PM
I really hope this post is just a big joke. If not, you are putting way too much value into this Reds pitching staff. Our rotation this year is very strong, with more depth than we have seen in many years. That said, there are several pitchers in the NL alone that I would take over any of the Reds starters including Wainwright, Johnson, Halladay, Jimenez, Latos, Gallardo, Lincecum, Santana, and Kershaw.

Remove Gallard, Santana and Kershaw and the others I would agree, but what is that going to cost you?

Griffey012
07-27-2010, 04:31 PM
in today's game you have to look at a number of things;

1. Cost of player
2. Home park of pitcher
3. Total team payroll.

I mean sure I would love to have 5 grade A starters, but no team outside of the Yankees could afford it. So, if I am going to add a pitcher the likes of Grenkie whom is going to shoot up teams costs alot sooner then say a Leake or Wood or Cueto will, then he had better be the next great thing, and while he is good, given all the factors you have to take into consideration, i will stick with what we have.

You never mentioned the issue with money until after the fact. I was responding to one of your post and it said nothing about money. As I stated, if your going to include money its a different story than talent alone.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 04:45 PM
You never mentioned the issue with money until after the fact. I was responding to one of your post and it said nothing about money. As I stated, if your going to include money its a different story than talent alone.

Sorry but in today's game you have to consider contracts when you talk about any player. I mean right now, what is the NO. 1 factor surrounding the Oswalt deal? It's that third year at 16+ million that he wants guarenteed.

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 05:37 PM
Sorry but in today's game you have to consider contracts when you talk about any player. I mean right now, what is the NO. 1 factor surrounding the Oswalt deal? It's that third year at 16+ million that he wants guarenteed.

Your arguments had nothing to do with contracts earlier. In fact, you didn't even mention contracts until a couple posts ago.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 05:42 PM
Your arguments had nothing to do with contracts earlier. In fact, you didn't even mention contracts until a couple posts ago.

When I look at any player I also take into consideration what their contract is, you have to in today's baseball. In fact sometimes (not as bad as it is in the NBA) a contract plays as big of if not bigger role then the player and talent. Look at Harang, he is paid as the ACE of the staff, but he isn't, but to trade him you have to look at the contract and such.

bshall2105
07-27-2010, 05:44 PM
When I look at any player I also take into consideration what their contract is, you have to in today's baseball. In fact sometimes (not as bad as it is in the NBA) a contract plays as big of if not bigger role then the player and talent. Look at Harang, he is paid as the ACE of the staff, but he isn't, but to trade him you have to look at the contract and such.

You started this thread on the basis of talent alone, and nothing to do with money.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 05:46 PM
You started this thread on the basis of talent alone, and nothing to do with money.

No you just take contract's into consideration. I look at the whole package when it comes to evaluating a player.

Rijo's Ghost
07-27-2010, 05:51 PM
No you just take contract's into consideration. I look at the whole package when it comes to evaluating a player.

This was your very first post in this thread.


If you look at his numbers he has had one very good season, everything else has been okay, but not earth shattering and not any better then say Cueto or Bronson or Wood or Leake or even Volquez can't post.

That's just absurd on many levels.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 06:05 PM
This was your very first post in this thread.



That's just absurd on many levels.

And you have your right to your opinion.

Griffey012
07-27-2010, 06:08 PM
You never mentioned the issue with money until after the fact. I was responding to one of your post and it said nothing about money. As I stated, if your going to include money its a different story than talent alone.


Sorry but in today's game you have to consider contracts when you talk about any player. I mean right now, what is the NO. 1 factor surrounding the Oswalt deal? It's that third year at 16+ million that he wants guarenteed.

Did you even read my post? Your original discussion appeared to be based off talent alone. When discussing talent you can forget about contracts because they are not relevant. When you begin discussing pitchers in terms of actual value on a small to mid market team contracts become a big issue.

I am aware we can't afford a lot of the guys I mentioned, I was speaking in terms of talent alone.

brm7675
07-27-2010, 06:11 PM
Did you even read my post? Your original discussion appeared to be based off talent alone. When discussing talent you can forget about contracts because they are not relevant. When you begin discussing pitchers in terms of actual value on a small to mid market team contracts become a big issue.

I am aware we can't afford a lot of the guys I mentioned, I was speaking in terms of talent alone.

I am glad you were, but I was basing mine off what talent they bring to the table and their contracts, to me it's an entire package, you don't see it that way.