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Cooper
07-27-2010, 12:37 PM
Looking at the Bronson's stats and how he appears to be getting by on some guile and luck.

His k's per 9 innings are really low (4.3) and his BABIP is at .236. Imho, you don't sign a guy with these kinds of ratios to a long term contract. These are the kind of ratios involved with taking a flyer on a guy who you hope to be your 5th starter. A player with these kind of ratios is a 1 year deal.

Am i missing something here? Surely the brass doesn't sign this guy, correct? He's living on borrowed time and the clock's ticking fast....right?

bucksfan2
07-27-2010, 12:46 PM
I was thinking about Bronson last night and began to worry about him. He is becoming more and more a junk ball pitcher. When he was first with the Reds he was striking out batters and his fast ball sat in the low 90's. Now he is relying on his curve and off speed stuff more than ever. I wonder if his 88ish fastball will keep losing velocity and he will need to rely on savvy rather than stuff.

The Voice of IH
07-27-2010, 01:00 PM
I do not think that they should sign him long term at all. remember that Chapman will be waiting in the wings next year. So I say the Reds only should pick up the option if they believe Chapman needs more time. but If Chapman is ready, then the rotation of the feature is set.

WMR
07-27-2010, 01:19 PM
I wouldn't want to commit to anything long-term with Bronson.


Two years max.

mdccclxix
07-27-2010, 01:20 PM
I think he's a decent option for any rotation and have no issue with him getting picked up next year or even beyond. He's a mental pitcher, so his raw stuff isn't as important as for others. I think Arroyo could live up to a contract taking him into his 37-38 years, just not for 12 million. He may ask for 8-12, we'll see.

I'd feel much better going into next year with Arroyo than without, especially since there's always teams looking at getting him when the Reds are down.

kaldaniels
07-27-2010, 01:22 PM
This thread could get ugly but I want him on the Reds until he shows me that he is toast. I really think he has the potential for a Jamie Moyer like career to some extent.

PuffyPig
07-27-2010, 01:37 PM
We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2010, 01:58 PM
We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.

I agree completely.

Chip R
07-27-2010, 02:02 PM
We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.


Why is it premature to consider it? I think it's premature to offer one but decisions have to be made for next season and they aren't all made after the last game of the season.

cumberlandreds
07-27-2010, 02:02 PM
I agree completely.

Ditto from me also. If he has a spectatucular year next then you can think about it. Otherwise there is no need of even considering an LTC until then.

Ghosts of 1990
07-27-2010, 02:03 PM
I don't think it's a definite "no" yet, but I'll be watching him close the last two months to see where he ends up. This is the time of year in the past he's really turned it on. I mean, if he ends up with 17 wins and 6 losses..... maybe worth thinking about another 3 years. I don't know that I'd go any longer then that and after he's thrown back out in the market he might realize we're about as fair as anyone out there....

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 02:25 PM
We can exercise our option if he finishes as well as he has pitched this year.

Then make a discision next year.

It's premature to consider a longer term contract at this stage IMO.
I agree 100%. I think we can be pretty sure that Bronson Arroyo isn't going to improve from here on out. With the Reds' pitching depth, he probably won't be an upgrade over anyone in the rotation beyond next year anyway.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:30 PM
If the Reds try to extend him into 2012 or 2013 now (or this offseason), they probably have a better shot at getting it done. There's a number of reasons.

1. The Reds are coming off the best season since Bronson arrived. They are finally winning.

2. The Reds in essence are offering him a 2-3 year deal.. Next year, it's a 1-2 year deal.

3. It shows the Reds want Bronson, respect him, etc.. Don't underestimate the human element. That's one reason I thought it was a good idea for Wayne to extend Bronson when he did, despite the fact that he didn't have to.

Sure, the "safe" way could be to just pick up Bronson's option and then hope to just sign him year to year after that. That sounds good in theory, but in reality, Bronson might feel slighted. Bronson is also going to know he will have multiyear options after 2011.

So I think it's a good idea to start talking to Bronson after the season ends about an extension. I'm willing to take the risk.. there's no way to build a pitching staff without taking some risk.. I'm less worried about velocity in Bronson.

REDREAD
07-27-2010, 02:33 PM
With the Reds' pitching depth, he [Bronson] probably won't be an upgrade over anyone in the rotation beyond next year anyway.

Assuming Harang is let go (which is highly likely), I disagree.

That leaves you with
Leake, Wood, Ceuto, Volquez, Bailey/Chapman.

I am willing to bet that at least one of those young pitchers underperforms Arroyo.. In fact, I am sure Bronson will be better than Leake next year.

PuffyPig
07-27-2010, 02:33 PM
Why is it premature to consider it? I think it's premature to offer one but decisions have to be made for next season and they aren't all made after the last game of the season.

We are talking about the 2012 season and beyond.

I think how Arroyo pitches the rest of this season will determine whether we exercise our option on him for 2011.

How he pitches in 2011 will determine whether we offer him a contract for 2012.

Since we don't know how he will finish out the year, or how well he will pitch in 2011 (assuming we exercise our option), I think it very premature as the majority of the data that will be evaluated in making the decision is unknown at this time.

And if it's premature to offer one, why spend much time considering it?

I think we may well be talking about the same thing here anyway.

camisadelgolf
07-27-2010, 02:41 PM
Assuming Harang is let go (which is highly likely), I disagree.

That leaves you with
Leake, Wood, Ceuto, Volquez, Bailey/Chapman.

I am willing to bet that at least one of those young pitchers underperforms Arroyo.. In fact, I am sure Bronson will be better than Leake next year.
I'm talking about 2012 and beyond. Between the guys listed below, I think the Reds can find five pitchers who can perform equal to or better than a 35-year-old Bronson Arroyo at a much cheaper price. I could be way off on that, but if the money used to retain Arroyo beyond 2011 means having to part with arbitration eligible guys like Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Volquez/Masset/Hanigan, I'm going to flip a lid.

Mike Leake
Travis Wood
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Homer Bailey
Aroldis Chapman
Daryl Thompson
Matt Klinker
Matt Maloney
Sam LeCure
Micah Owings
Dallas Buck
Scott Carroll
Matt Fairel
Mark Serrano

Captain Hook
07-27-2010, 03:00 PM
I've seen that with many it's a wait and see attitude with Bronson and that there's no need to worry about it now.That's fine but what if he does have a great season next year?Are the Reds going to even consider him with all of the younger and less expensive(probably more talented as well)options available to them.I agree that the idea that we could get him a little cheaper now is at least worth discussing.

All of that said, it appears that extending Bronson now at a discount isn't much of an option.

http://blog.prorumors.com/2010/07/rumors/bronson-arroyo-will-not-restructure-his-contract-for-next-year/

JaxRed
07-27-2010, 03:09 PM
Reds would be nuts to extend him. You make a decision on whether to pick up the option for next year after the season. There's no rush. At this point I probably pick up the option.

And if he is lights-out in 2011 and wants a long term deal? Then by all means.... offer him arb, wait for him to turn it down, and collect some draft picks.

Mario-Rijo
07-27-2010, 03:14 PM
If we make the playoffs this year I buy out his option immediately after the season and put that money to good use elsewhere (like extensions for certain guys). If we don't make the playoffs I might be swayed to pick up the option for one more season but that is where I would draw the line for Bronson.

Reds1
07-27-2010, 03:23 PM
If we make the playoffs this year I buy out his option immediately after the season and put that money to good use elsewhere (like extensions for certain guys). If we don't make the playoffs I might be swayed to pick up the option for one more season but that is where I would draw the line for Bronson.

I agree. As much as I do like having a guy who eats innings and keeps us in the games he is due a lot of money and we have a lot of pitching right now. I think the money could be used to keep other players here and fill in a few holes. That being said I'm glad he's on the team this year and if the Reds made the playoffs he is a nice arm to have go out there.

bucksfan2
07-27-2010, 04:10 PM
The way I look at it I would be against a contract extension for Arroyo. And as is now I am wavering on whether or not to pick up his option. What I once thought was a sure thing just a couple of weeks ago I just don't know about that. Here is the way I think the rotation will shake out next year.

Cueto - Will be in the rotation I just hope he takes his game to that next level. The level where he is consistent and dominates most of his starts. He may be the closest thing to a TOR the Reds have seen in a long time.

Volquez - You would have to imagine that he will be fully healed from TJ surgery and back to 08 form. Maybe not as good as the first half of 08 but some one who belongs in the rotation.

Leake - See no reason Leake isn't in the rotation. You would think that he would be limited to 190-200 innings next season and durability would be such an issue.

Wood - I think he has earned a spot in this rotation and I think you will see him continue to improve throughout next season.

Then you have the likes of Bailey and Chapman who you just don't know what you are going to get. Will Chapman be a starter or reliever. The same questions can be asked about Homer. It really isn't a bad problem to have for the 5th rotation spot.

Malone and LeCure aren't bad guys to have in your organization as 6th and 7th starter types. Neither is going to be awful and will be servicable pitching in the 5th spot if a starter goes down with an injury.

Then it goes back to Bronson. He is what he is. A middle of the rotation starer who eats innings like its his job. That was very valuable to the Reds over the past 2-3 seasons because of a young and inexperienced starting rotation. But now the question begs to be asked is Bronson worth $9M of payroll flexibility. Can Walt improve the club more by picking up Bronson's option as opposed to spending $9M in the FA market or trade market.

KronoRed
07-27-2010, 05:18 PM
If, and who knows if they will or should, the Reds pick Arroyo up beyond next year he will be 35, No thanks.

edabbs44
07-27-2010, 07:35 PM
The only way I extend him is if he takes a Rolen like contract and wants 2 yr $16MM or so and rip up the 2011 option.

But I guess that's out.

RedsManRick
07-27-2010, 07:48 PM
I really enjoy watching Arroyo pitch, but I want no part of him at the sort of salary he'll require moving forward.

REDREAD
07-28-2010, 12:19 PM
I'm talking about 2012 and beyond. Between the guys listed below, I think the Reds can find five pitchers who can perform equal to or better than a 35-year-old Bronson Arroyo at a much cheaper price.

Yes, I agree that there might be a money crunch in 2012 and beyond.
It's no problem finding someone cheaper than Arroyo, but after seeing Jack Armstrong and many other pitchers vanish after strong starts, there's some value in a proven guy like Arroyo. Not to mention, it's extremely difficult to keep a young staff completely healthy, as Volquez's injury shows.

Plus signing Arroyo gives the team the option to trade a talented young pitcher for a good SS or other need.

REDREAD
07-28-2010, 12:25 PM
Interesting that some people are opposed to picking up his option next year as well.
I can see the arguement for not extending him, but IMO, his option year is a bargain.
We aren't going to find a comparable pitcher like that on the FA market.
I guess it's possible that there might be better value in spending Bronson's 2011 salary in a position player (or anywhere other than Bronson).

I guess I don't see the starting pitching for 2011 as being that deep.

camisadelgolf
07-28-2010, 12:52 PM
Arroyo would gain a no-trade clause early in 2012 thanks to the 10-5 rights rule. If you sign Arroyo to an extension, you need to have a lot of faith in him.

bucksfan2
07-28-2010, 01:00 PM
Interesting that some people are opposed to picking up his option next year as well.
I can see the arguement for not extending him, but IMO, his option year is a bargain.
We aren't going to find a comparable pitcher like that on the FA market.
I guess it's possible that there might be better value in spending Bronson's 2011 salary in a position player (or anywhere other than Bronson).

I guess I don't see the starting pitching for 2011 as being that deep.

Its not so much that Bronson isn't worth that kind of money, it is whether or not he is worth it for the Reds. Are the Reds better with Bronson on the team at $11M or better off without him on the team but $9M to spend in FA?

Sea Ray
07-28-2010, 03:24 PM
We are talking about the 2012 season and beyond.

I think how Arroyo pitches the rest of this season will determine whether we exercise our option on him for 2011.

How he pitches in 2011 will determine whether we offer him a contract for 2012.

Since we don't know how he will finish out the year, or how well he will pitch in 2011 (assuming we exercise our option), I think it very premature as the majority of the data that will be evaluated in making the decision is unknown at this time.

And if it's premature to offer one, why spend much time considering it?

I think we may well be talking about the same thing here anyway.

I think that's how the Reds should approach it but I am amazed that Bronson doesn't see it that way. He thinks he's set up for a big payday however I think he ought to be open to a nice discount if the Reds extend him now because a lot can happen between now and 2012.

However I do not think the Reds need to extend him at any price. I think they should either take his option or pay his buyout, offer arbitration & take the draft picks. Right now I'm leaning towards picking up his option

Caveat Emperor
07-28-2010, 03:34 PM
Wow, guess I'm in the minority here -- all Arroyo costs is money. He's a known item, he's the very definition of a reliable starter, he's virtually a lock to throw 200 innings every season, and he seems like the type of pitcher who will retain effectiveness late into his career.

Why wouldn't you want a crafty veteran in your locker room teaching the young kids the mental aspects of pitching? How to set a hitter up for a pitch, how to utilize scouting reports, what to do on off days to keep yourself in pitching shape, what to do in the offseason, etc.

Logjam of young pitching? Fantastic -- sell the surplus for stuff your farm system isn't producing (SS, looking your direction).

Keeping Arroyo around is a no-brainer to me.

Sea Ray
07-28-2010, 03:44 PM
Why wouldn't you want a crafty veteran in your locker room teaching the young kids the mental aspects of pitching?

Money.

MLB isn't like the federal gov't where they can spend money they don't have. If you keep Bronson it could cost you in other areas like extentions for Votto, Cueto and Bruce

REDREAD
07-28-2010, 03:49 PM
Its not so much that Bronson isn't worth that kind of money, it is whether or not he is worth it for the Reds. Are the Reds better with Bronson on the team at $11M or better off without him on the team but $9M to spend in FA?

It's just my opinion, but the Reds will never be in the running for elite FAs..
Occasionally they might be in the running for a player of Bronson's calibar (who I think is at least above average at this level of performance, I think most agree on that).

I don't think Bronson would redo his 2011 year to take less money, but I think he'd be open to a reasonable offer for an extension.. In other words, he's not going to ask for CC Sabathia money.

I have no problem letting Harang walk after this year. I expect that. But if Bronson is cut loose after this year, I doubt the team ever becomes competitive. At some point you have to keep your good players and get out of the John Allen mindset..

Also, I think bringing Arroyo back would help us recruit more FAs.. Sure, money might be tight, but most FAs want to play on a team with at least a chance of winning.

bucksfan2
07-28-2010, 04:08 PM
It's just my opinion, but the Reds will never be in the running for elite FAs..
Occasionally they might be in the running for a player of Bronson's calibar (who I think is at least above average at this level of performance, I think most agree on that).

I don't think Bronson would redo his 2011 year to take less money, but I think he'd be open to a reasonable offer for an extension.. In other words, he's not going to ask for CC Sabathia money.

I have no problem letting Harang walk after this year. I expect that. But if Bronson is cut loose after this year, I doubt the team ever becomes competitive. At some point you have to keep your good players and get out of the John Allen mindset..

Also, I think bringing Arroyo back would help us recruit more FAs.. Sure, money might be tight, but most FAs want to play on a team with at least a chance of winning.

If you mean the top 2-3 FA on the market then I agree with you. I also agree that those are the players more than likely a team like the Reds want to stay away from. A top tier FA would take up too much of the payroll and are also would be locked up into their twilight years.

Not so sure how it is still the John Allen mindset questioning whether or not a 34 year old Bronson Arroyo is worth his contract, especially when the Reds look to be deep and loaded in the SP department. The question that I am asking is can Walt Jocketty (not John Allen) improve the Reds more with $9M in the FA market than what Bronson adds to the team?

WVRedsFan
07-29-2010, 02:02 AM
To tell you the truth, I don't know. My first reaction is to take the club option and then wait and see. Bronson is smoke a mirrors. Always has been and always will be. When he's good, he's good and when he's bad, he's bad. He's not a $10 million pitcher, but he gets the job done. With the arms we have coming up, is it worth keeping him around? I don't know. I do know that giving big money to guys like Arroyo is insane.

kaldaniels
07-29-2010, 02:18 AM
To tell you the truth, I don't know. My first reaction is to take the club option and then wait and see. Bronson is smoke a mirrors. Always has been and always will be. When he's good, he's good and when he's bad, he's bad. He's not a $10 million pitcher, but he gets the job done. With the arms we have coming up, is it worth keeping him around? I don't know. I do know that giving big money to guys like Arroyo is insane.

I think he is. If you took his stat lines over the past 4 years, and said to all MLB teams, would you pay 40 million for 4 years if you knew you were certain to get those numbers...I think teams would be running over each other to get him.

Just my opinion, but in that sense, yes he is a 10 million/yr pitcher.

mdccclxix
07-29-2010, 02:18 AM
To tell you the truth, I don't know. My first reaction is to take the club option and then wait and see. Bronson is smoke a mirrors. Always has been and always will be. When he's good, he's good and when he's bad, he's bad. He's not a $10 million pitcher, but he gets the job done. With the arms we have coming up, is it worth keeping him around? I don't know. I do know that giving big money to guys like Arroyo is insane.

If Volquez can pull it together and this team does make the playoffs, I think Arroyo has less a chance because between Chapman and Bailey, this rotation is full. And cheap. :thumbup:

REDREAD
07-29-2010, 02:08 PM
Not so sure how it is still the John Allen mindset questioning whether or not a 34 year old Bronson Arroyo is worth his contract, especially when the Reds look to be deep and loaded in the SP department. The question that I am asking is can Walt Jocketty (not John Allen) improve the Reds more with $9M in the FA market than what Bronson adds to the team?

I met picking up his 2011 option.. To me, that's a no brainer. I know others disagree.

I can see the arguement that extending Arroyo beyond 2011 has some risk.

IMO, Bronson is worth 9 million easily.

camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 02:15 PM
Bronson Arroyo on a one-year, $9mm contract sounds good to me. Bronson Arroyo on a five-year, $55mm contract with a no-trade clause scares me, though. Just look at the kinds of deals Gil Meche and Kyle Lohse signed. It might be good for a while, but it's probably not worth the risk.

bucksfan2
07-29-2010, 02:17 PM
Bronson Arroyo on a one-year, $9mm contract sounds good to me. Bronson Arroyo on a five-year, $55mm contract with a no-trade clause scares me, though. Just look at the kinds of deals Gil Meche and Kyle Lohse signed. It might be good for a while, but it's probably not worth the risk.

Bronson will be playing on a $11M contract. The $9M takes into consideration the $2M the Reds would owe him in a buy out.

camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 02:23 PM
Bronson will be playing on a $11M contract. The $9M takes into consideration the $2M the Reds would owe him in a buy out.
I know. For all intensive purposes, I see him getting paid $13mm this year and a $9mm club option for next year.

Homer Bailey
07-29-2010, 02:35 PM
Picking up his option for next year is a no brainer. Take one more year to evaluate the staff you have on hand, and if you determine you have enough guys to replace his innings, let him walk after 2011. If you are still uncertain that Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Leake, and Bailey can handle the innings they'll need to handle as full time starters, then work out some sort of long term deal with BA. He's not much of a risk at all, as he has zero injury history, and doesn't rely on a overpowering fastball (which is something that may decline with age).

KronoRed
07-29-2010, 05:21 PM
Bronson Arroyo on a five-year, $55mm contract with a no-trade clause scares me, though.

At his age such a contract would be borderline insane.

Everybody gets old, I don't care what it is you throw, the Moyer and Maddox's of the world are rare.

mth123
07-30-2010, 12:00 AM
I know. For all intensive purposes, I see him getting paid $13mm this year and a $9mm club option for next year.

That option escalates to $13 Million based on IP. Considering that he goes deep in games and never misses a start, he'll be a $13 Million guy next year.

Bringing Arroyo back should be the minimum that they do for 2011. I'd rather they pass and use the money for the TOR.

Chip R
07-30-2010, 12:19 AM
Money.

MLB isn't like the federal gov't where they can spend money they don't have.

Don't tell that to the Texas Rangers.


Bronson Arroyo on a one-year, $9mm contract sounds good to me. Bronson Arroyo on a five-year, $55mm contract with a no-trade clause scares me, though. Just look at the kinds of deals Gil Meche and Kyle Lohse signed. It might be good for a while, but it's probably not worth the risk.

I don't think anyone - even Bronson - is thinking he going to ask for a 5/$55M deal. If he does, he's going to be singing for his supper.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 04:56 PM
I don't think anyone - even Bronson - is thinking he going to ask for a 5/$55M deal. If he does, he's going to be singing for his supper.
I could be way off on this one, but I see Arroyo as a top-five starting pitcher on the free agent market, and there's a good chance he'll climb up that ranking as extensions happen late in the season. Couple that with the fact that Arroyo has been pitching well, things are looking pretty good for him. Oh, and he has zero injury history. You can't put a price on that because every starting pitcher that hits the market, short of Jon Garlad, has a history of injuries.

Randy Wolf had an ERA+ of 103 for his career at the age of 33 (about Arroyo's age), and he got a three-year deal with almost $10M per year despite having had arm surgery. Arroyo has an ERA+ of 107 despite pitching half his games in GABP (not to mention his time in the AL East)

Five years/$55M? Okay, maybe not. Four years/$40M? No problem imo.

Will M
07-30-2010, 05:13 PM
That option escalates to $13 Million based on IP. Considering that he goes deep in games and never misses a start, he'll be a $13 Million guy next year.

Bringing Arroyo back should be the minimum that they do for 2011. I'd rather they pass and use the money for the TOR.

Its tough to pay a $2M buyout. Its also tough to pay a solid to good pitcher $13M. Thats a TOR salary & Bronson isn't close to that.
However, the $2M is a sunk cost. Would I pay Bronson $11M for 2011 or would i let him go & put the money to work elsewhere? I say wait & see how Volquez, Bailey & Chapman do for the rest of 2010 before making that decision.

thatcoolguy_22
07-30-2010, 05:20 PM
I don't like paying Bronson 13 million for a minimum upgrade over league minimum players in house already. Decline the option and attempt to resign him cheaply. If not you now have 13m to put towards upgrading the club in other places.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 05:34 PM
I don't like paying Bronson 13 million for a minimum upgrade over league minimum players in house already. Decline the option and attempt to resign him cheaply. If not you now have 13m to put towards upgrading the club in other places.
Arroyo has already made it clear that he won't stay for a discount because he got burned by Boston. If you decline his option, he's walking.

_Sir_Charles_
07-30-2010, 05:38 PM
I'd offer him arbitration, let him decline and move on, then take the picks. (at least I think that's how it works).

I like Bronson, but we're fighting for rotation spots as it is already, no need to do that AND fork over a ton of loot we need to sign the kids.

thatcoolguy_22
07-30-2010, 05:55 PM
Arroyo has already made it clear that he won't stay for a discount because he got burned by Boston. If you decline his option, he's walking.

I'm completely fine with that. If he is resigned him and Cordero will be 25M of the team payroll. You still have to factor in raises for Votto, BP, Vueto, Volquez, etc etc. I would rather see that bit of money going to a LTC for Votto if nothing else.

nate
07-30-2010, 06:02 PM
I'd offer him arbitration, let him decline and move on, then take the picks. (at least I think that's how it works).

I like Bronson, but we're fighting for rotation spots as it is already, no need to do that AND fork over a ton of loot we need to sign the kids.

I think there's a team option for next year. $13mm if the Reds offer, $2mm buyout.

PuffyPig
07-30-2010, 06:18 PM
I'd offer him arbitration, let him decline and move on, then take the picks. (at least I think that's how it works).



Or, you pay him $2M to decline his option, offer him arbitration, have him accept, and likely pay him more in total than the $13M you decline (after accounting for the option buyout).

Offering him arbitration is suicide.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 06:27 PM
Yeah, there's no way he'd earn a pay cut in arbitration. If you want him for next year, pick up the option. If you want him behind that, wait until next year to decide.