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View Full Version : Ismael Guillon - more than a sleeper



OnBaseMachine
07-27-2010, 01:28 PM
It sounds like Junior Arias isn't the only Reds prospect creating some buzz in the Arizona Summer League. Reds left handed pitcher Ismael Guillon has been pitching very well. Last night he struck out 10 batters in 4.2 innings and now has a 3.15 ERA with 12 BB/41 K in 34.1 innings and has yet to allow a home run. Guillon, as you may recall, was signed by the Reds as a 16-year old out of Venezuela in 2008 during that great International signing class by the Reds that also featured Yorman Rodriguez, Juan Duran, and Junior Arias.

Guillon originally signed for $625,000 but his contract was voided and he resigned a cheaper deal after it was determined he would need Tommy John surgery. The Reds tweaked Guillon's mechanics after the surgery and according to Keith Law, he impressed scouts with a 90-93 mph fastball and good changeup in Instructional League last October. Now at age 18 he's finally pitching in real games and pitching quite well.

I sent Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus a tweet asking him about Guillon and if he thought he was a potential sleeper.

OnBaseMachine: @Kevin_Goldstein You have any info on #Reds lefty Ismael Guillon? 3.15 ERA and 12 BB/41 K in 34 IP in Arizona. Potential sleeper?

Kevin_Goldstein: Good arm with projection. More than a sleeper.

http://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

Interesting. It sounds like Goldstein thinks highly of him.

GIDP
07-27-2010, 02:32 PM
Yea this kid looks pretty good. thanks for the info.

Benihana
07-27-2010, 06:16 PM
As far as I'm concerned, he's the best Reds pitching prospect in all of Rookie League. Great to see him having early success at such a young age.

Guillon
Rodriguez
Duran
Arias
Torreyes
Valor

6 bona fide prospects all not even legal adults yet. Good times!

mace
07-27-2010, 08:14 PM
As far as I'm concerned, he's the best Reds pitching prospect in all of Rookie League. Great to see him having early success at such a young age.

I don't disagree that, by scouting reports, stuff, size, performance--all of those things--Guillon may well be the best prospect among the rookie pitchers. I think he might be a top-15 prospect in the organization. However, I don't think he has that universe all to himself. There are a few rookie pitchers (and I'm not including Billings) who may warrant being mentioned in the same sentence.

Here are some of the pertinent numbers (and frankly, numbers are only so pertinent at this stage of the game).

From the AZL Reds (IP...H...BB...K...ERA)

Ismael Guillion, 18, LH: 34.1...28...12...41...3.15
Jonathan Correa, 19, RH: 28.1...28...6...37...2.22
Mitchell Clarke, 19, LH: 23...23...4...23...2.35
El'Hajj Muhammad, 19, RH: 16.1...14...9...23...2.20
Radhames Quezada, 20, RH: 8...3...2...11...1.13
(Quezada has pitched mainly for the DSL Reds.)

From the VSL Reds

Luis Gonzalez, 17, LH: 59...47...13...40...2.59
Franderlin Romero, 19, RH: 55...51...21...36...2.29
Alejandro Chacin, 17, RH: 28.1...17...11...23...1.59
Orlando Chiquin, 20, RH: 25.1...18...12...10...1.07

From the DSL Reds

Elizier Beard, 19, RH: 39.1...28...12...22...1.37
Abel De Los Santos, 18, LH: 47.1...31...21...40...2.09
(De Los Santos has also hit 13 batters)
Radhames Quezada, 20, RH: 43...32...17...29...2.09
Jose Guzman, 18, RH: 30...17...22...31...2.10
Carlos Ramos, 19, RH: 17.1...10...11...25...0.52

Beard, at 6-4, and Guzman, at 6-3, sport the same kind of size as Guillon, although neither is a lefty. But De Los Santos is. Gonzalez is, and he's younger. Chacin is also a very young 17 (just turned). Correa has a history of success, and a remarkable K:BB ratio for a teenager.

Just sayin'.

(If anybody cares to clean this up a bit, please be my guest.)

nemesis
07-27-2010, 10:58 PM
(If anybody cares to clean this up a bit, please be my guest.)


Nope. You did a great job.

Correa is a personal favorite. If he hadn't been suspended for PED's at 17 we might have heard and seen more of him.

Clarke is another one who was stuck behind Tuttle, Cline and Johnson last year. This year he is behind Guillon, Correa and Quezada.

LH 6'2 and over 200lbs, has a great frame. Is a GB pitcher, and has a ton of control while keeping a 9 per K rate. Clarke excites me since in Canada he probably didn't have that much development or wear and tear.

mace
07-28-2010, 12:23 AM
You can add tonight's fine line to Correa's totals: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K. For the season, he now has 44 strikeouts and 7 walks. His ERA is 1.83.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2010, 12:18 PM
Guillon had a dominant start last night: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. That brings his overall numbers to: 57 IP, 39 H, 1 HR, 23 BB, 73 K, 3.32 ERA. 3.63 BB/9. 11.53 K/9. I think Guillon is in the discussion for the second best pitching prospect in the Reds organization.

GIDP
08-26-2010, 12:35 PM
1.087 WHIP
3.18 K/BB ratio
and a Lefty

I kinda like that.

dougdirt
08-26-2010, 12:46 PM
Guillon had a dominant start last night: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. That brings his overall numbers to: 57 IP, 39 H, 1 HR, 23 BB, 73 K, 3.32 ERA. 3.63 BB/9. 11.53 K/9. I think Guillon is in the discussion for the second best pitching prospect in the Reds organization.

At the very worst he is 4th. At the very best, he is 2nd.

lollipopcurve
08-26-2010, 01:03 PM
There's a nice cluster of 18-20 year old arms -- Guillon, Lotzkar, Johnson, Correa, Tuttle, Cisco, Corcino, Muhammad, Mugarian, Clarke, P. Martinez... and I'm sure I'm missing some. The current rotation is nice and young, but the Reds will need this next wave to produce major league quality starting pitching once the current group ambles up to the big money table.

krm1580
08-26-2010, 01:11 PM
Has anyone actually seen him pitch? I am curious about how he looks as the reviews on him were kind of mixed as a 16yo signee. They were basically along the lines of good stuff for his age, but does not project to have much more based on body type and delivery.

He was at 88-92 with a good change as a 16yo. Has he added to that? Is his delivery funky?

mace
08-26-2010, 01:13 PM
At the very worst he is 4th. At the very best, he is 2nd.

Including relievers?

If you include everybody except guys who have already pitched in the majors (Maloney, LeCure, Thompson, etc.), what would your top 5 be? Without studying the particulars, mine might go something like this:

1. Chapman
2. Joseph
3. Guillon
4. Johnson
5. Correa

And after that, it's a scrum:

6. Corcino
7. Hotchkiss
8. Lotzkar
9. De Los Santos
10. Guzman
11. Gonzalez
12. Robles
13. Mugarian
14. Tuttle
15. Fairel
16. Beard
17. Ware
18. Horst
19. Cisco
20. Freeman
21. Ravin
22. Peralta
23. Ramos
24. Thurman
25. Muhammad

That represents quite a drop for Sulbaran and Klinker, though I haven't given up on either. I might have slighted Scott Carroll, but at this point don't see him as a big-leaguer.

dougdirt
08-26-2010, 01:25 PM
Is his delivery funky?

His delivery has been funky in the past. It is the main concern I have with him. If his delivery isn't clean up, is he going to hold up.

dougdirt
08-26-2010, 01:27 PM
Including relievers?


For starters, you absolutely did slight Carroll. You listed a kid in the Dominican Summer League who I just can't imagine you know a single thing about other than his numbers against kids that mostly should be in high school ahead of Carroll who is in AA with solid numbers and a real good fastball.

As for including relievers, I wasn't. My bad DJ, you probably jump in there too. But really, outside of Joseph, no one else is close.

mace
08-26-2010, 01:47 PM
For starters, you absolutely did slight Carroll. You listed a kid in the Dominican Summer League who I just can't imagine you know a single thing about other than his numbers against kids that mostly should be in high school ahead of Carroll who is in AA with solid numbers and a real good fastball.



Sorry, didn't mean to offend you or Carroll. And yes, I'm guilty of listing several young guys about whom I know next to nothing but the numbers. I have seen Carroll pitch, however. And I'm aware of his virtues. I hope he makes it.

dougdirt
08-26-2010, 01:57 PM
Sorry, didn't mean to offend you or Carroll. And yes, I'm guilty of listing several young guys about whom I know next to nothing but the numbers. I have seen Carroll pitch, however. And I'm aware of his virtues. I hope he makes it.

I don't take offense, just very confused that you named multiple guys who I literally had to look up over a more than a few guys pitching in the US with at least one above average pitch that we know about.

mace
08-26-2010, 03:13 PM
Well, like I said originally, I might have slighted Carroll. But my reasoning is this: When I see a 25-year-old in AA, and he strikes out roughly one batter every two innings, and, while pitching pretty well, he has never had a dominant kind of season, it just doesn't seem to me that the big leagues are in his future. There are exceptions, of course. Carroll is a good athlete, and he keeps the ball down, for the most part. He could become a serviceable journeyman. But I haven't seen enough upside there to place him high on a prospect list. That said, I hope that steady wins the race and he proves me wrong.

Now, as for the teenagers . . . Naturally, they're a very long way away from the big leagues. And in fact, many of them will do well to attain what a guy like Carroll already has. They're shots in the dark. But all the guys I listed have had impressive seasons, and the DSL guys, in particular, have competed well enough to have their team in the second round of the playoffs of a 34-team league. At this stage, while putting up imposing numbers, they haven't done anything to disqualify themselves as prospects. To me, that's their advantage. It may be a fleeting one, but these types of evaluations are inevitably snapshots.

At any rate, I don't purport that my rankings are any more than a remote, hastily presented, amateur opinion.

New Fever
08-26-2010, 04:39 PM
From Kevin Goldstein today:

Ismael Guillon, LHP, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K. Big bonus 18-year-old Venezuelan has impressed scouts with plus velocity; 73 strikeouts in 57 innings.

Betterread
08-26-2010, 08:55 PM
1. Chapman
2. Boxberger ( he's not even in the top 20 - huh?)
3. Guilon
4. Joseph
5. Tuttle or Ravin (they have the two best arms after Chapman)

mace
08-26-2010, 09:18 PM
1. Chapman
2. Boxberger ( he's not even in the top 20 - huh?)
3. Guilon
4. Joseph
5. Tuttle or Ravin (they have the two best arms after Chapman)

To tell you the truth, I overlooked Boxberger. But I wouldn't have him nearly as high as most people.

lollipopcurve
08-26-2010, 09:29 PM
But I wouldn't have him nearly as high as most people.

Neither would I -- never really got the Boxberger fever.

RED VAN HOT
08-26-2010, 09:43 PM
Has anyone seen Muhammad pitch? As a 49th round pick I did not pay much attention to him, but he has put up good numbers.

membengal
08-26-2010, 10:38 PM
lol...wrong thread.

GIDP
08-26-2010, 11:55 PM
Box was good when he was starting.

camisadelgolf
08-27-2010, 07:25 AM
Box was good when he was starting.
That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.

dougdirt
08-27-2010, 09:17 AM
That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.

It has to be more than just facing better hitters. He went from very good to the worst pitcher in the league. His ERA tripled upon going to AA/transitioning to the bullpen.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 09:25 AM
That was also when he was in Lynchburg. People keep blaming the transition to reliever, but I think it's more a matter of facing better hitters.

Facing improved hitters might be a part of the reason, but no way I believe that improved hitters is the main reason he went from

3.19 ERA
2.9 BB/9
0.4 HR/9
8.3 H/9
1.242 WHIP

to
10.65 ERA
8.4 BB/9
1.5 HR/9
11.8 H/9
2.239 WHIP

Makes me think the dude isnt warm coming out of the pen.

camisadelgolf
08-27-2010, 09:43 AM
Just like Sean Watson, Boxberger throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. The difference between AA hitters and A+ hitters is that AA hitters know to lay off of it. Boxberger will need to learn to throw it for strikes if he's going to have success. Otherwise, he's going to have to hope his changeup develops into a better pitch.

dougdirt
08-27-2010, 10:13 AM
Just like Sean Watson, Boxberger throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. The difference between AA hitters and A+ hitters is that AA hitters know to lay off of it. Boxberger will need to learn to throw it for strikes if he's going to have success. Otherwise, he's going to have to hope his changeup develops into a better pitch.

Almost everyone throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. Sliders and curves both break downward. I don't really think that is his issue. Sure, guys are going to chase less in AA, but we aren't talking about going from 3 to 5 walks per 9. We are seeing a rate nearly tripled. This isn't a guy who can't throw a fastball anywhere near the plate and has no clue where its going. He is striking out over 12 hitters per 9 innings in AA.

camisadelgolf
08-27-2010, 10:35 AM
Almost everyone throws a breaking ball that dives out of the zone. Sliders and curves both break downward. I don't really think that is his issue. Sure, guys are going to chase less in AA, but we aren't talking about going from 3 to 5 walks per 9. We are seeing a rate nearly tripled. This isn't a guy who can't throw a fastball anywhere near the plate and has no clue where its going. He is striking out over 12 hitters per 9 innings in AA.
I wasn't very clear, so I'll rephrase. I'm not saying that the level difference is the sole reason for his struggles. I was merely acknowledging that it hasn't been mentioned as a factor. But how do you explain such a drastic change in his numbers? Granted, he has always had a reputation for taking a long time to warm up, but I'm just saying that you need to combine that with the change in level, too. Boxberger's wind up kind of reminds me of the Tasmanian Devil, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he struggles with control.

HokieRed
08-27-2010, 11:17 AM
Wonder if there's a more serious underlying problem they thought might be fixed by the move to the pen. Not that they're ignoring something, but that something's wrong with B physically that hasn't been found. Hope this is not the explanation.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 11:59 AM
Something is weird about Box. I simply cant believe that hitters laying off a breaking ball changed him from a good control pitcher to a terrible pitcher who gives up a ton of hits and 3 times more home runs.

something else is going on than just the hitters.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2010, 12:08 PM
Something is weird about Box. I simply cant believe that hitters laying off a breaking ball changed him from a good control pitcher to a terrible pitcher who gives up a ton of hits and 3 times more home runs.

something else is going on than just the hitters.

Agreed. If hitters were laying off Boxberger's stuff then he probably wouldn't have 32 K's in 23.2 innings with Carolina.

camisadelgolf
08-27-2010, 12:44 PM
A lot of strikeouts + a lot of walks = the hitters know that their best shot against Boxberger is to have a patient plate approach.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 12:54 PM
I feel like this thread is like the Janish thread in the ORG.

nemesis
08-31-2010, 02:45 AM
Travis Wood had a similar disaster in AA his first time though after being good in High A. We all know how the next season turned out. If this is September next year and we are having the same discussion, then I'll be worried.

nemesis
08-31-2010, 02:49 AM
Back to the original topic, Guillon really showed his best stuff in a high pressure situation tonight.

5 IP 2 H 1 BB 8 K...

He has to be a candidate for Dayton next year.

Lotzkar, Tuttle, Corcino, Correa and Guillon are defiantly cream of the crop in terms of arms in going to Dayton next year.

OnBaseMachine
08-31-2010, 12:49 PM
From Kevin Goldstein:

Ismael Guillon, LHP, Reds (Rookie-level AZL Reds): 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 K. 18-year-old Venezuelan was one of the most impressive arms in Arizona; Long, projectable lefty who already has plenty of now stuff.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/minorleagueupdate/

OnBaseMachine
08-31-2010, 12:53 PM
Combine Guillon's playoff start last night with his stats from the regular season and you get this:

62 IP, 42 H, 1 HR, 25 BB, 81 K, 3.05 ERA, 11.76 K/9

OnBaseMachine
02-01-2011, 12:30 AM
I tweeted this to Keith Law:

Any chance Ismael Guillon or Jonathan Correa jump into the #Reds top 5 next season?

His response:

Guillon could. Like him a lot.

http://twitter.com/keithlaw

nate1213
02-01-2011, 12:33 AM
Thats awesome. Where does his fastball normally sit around, and what does he top out at, if you happen to know?

medford
02-01-2011, 09:12 AM
I don't know if it would be rushing him or not, but I'd love to see Guillon start out w/ the Dragons this year. After Hamilton & Yorman, who should both be in Dayton this year, he's the guy who'd development I'm most interested in this season.

A dominant season in Dayton, along w/ the graduations of Yonder, Chapmann and potentially Mes, could easily push Guillon into the Reds top 5 next year.

nemesis
02-01-2011, 10:10 AM
Thats awesome. Where does his fastball normally sit around, and what does he top out at, if you happen to know?

Everything I have read or heard is that he sits at around 91-93. Probably tick out at 95 if he humped it up there. Very similar to Wood in terms of throwing speed and pitch selection.

dougdirt
02-01-2011, 03:21 PM
Thats awesome. Where does his fastball normally sit around, and what does he top out at, if you happen to know?

I talked to a Reds official who said he was at 88-90 this year. BA has him sitting a little higher than that in their write ups after the season.

corkedbat
02-01-2011, 05:12 PM
In my mind, the only question about Lotzkar is his health. If he can stay healthy I believe he will definitely be in the top five, if not he will be relegated to the the Howington/Gruler heap.

camisadelgolf
08-08-2012, 06:34 PM
Guillon has turned it on in his last 7 starts. He still has to get his walks down.

W L ERA IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
4 0 1.62 33.1 22 6 6 15 39 1.11

dougdirt
08-09-2012, 12:34 PM
Guillon has been pretty good, sans the walk rate being higher than you would like, for his last 15 starts, stretching back to last year in Billings:



ERA IP TBF H ER HR BB SO
3.31 68 294 64 25 5 32 77

Benihana
08-09-2012, 02:48 PM
Excited to see what he can do next year (or the remainder of this year) in Dayton.

mdccclxix
07-30-2013, 01:45 PM
Pitching Prospect of the Day: Ismael Guillon, LHP, Reds (Low-A Dayton): 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Guillon had been scuffling in 2013, but he turned it around last night. He features a plus fastball and changeup. Guillon’s command this season has been poor, to put it bluntly, and he looks destined for the bullpen.

dougdirt
07-30-2013, 01:46 PM
Link?

I would also hardly call his fastball a plus. Most nights he barely scrapes 90.

Tom Servo
07-30-2013, 01:59 PM
So you're saying getting a fastball over 90 is Ismael's...white whale?

JayBruceFan
07-30-2013, 02:28 PM
Link?

I would also hardly call his fastball a plus. Most nights he barely scrapes 90.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21385

Hypnotoad
07-30-2013, 03:30 PM
I saw him last night and the difference to me was locating a changeup/curve/whatever-it-is-that-wasn't-a-fastball. He was pretty consistently throwing it in there for a strike and getting ahead of the batters. No wild pitches either, although he didn't have many batters get on base.

I hope he can repeat last night, but we'll see.

OGB
07-30-2013, 05:58 PM
So you're saying getting a fastball over 90 is Ismael's...white whale?

I try not to make it Ahabit to like posts like this, but well done.

Superdude
07-30-2013, 07:03 PM
I try not to make it Ahabit to like posts like this, but well done.

That's funny. Liking Moby Dick references in the minor league forum is a habit I actively nurture.