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View Full Version : Three Reds Mentioned in 'This Week in Prospects'



camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 01:56 PM
http://calltothepen.com/2010/07/29/twip-729-yonder-alonso-manny-banuelos-tim-alderson-and-more/

Donnie Joseph, LHP, Reds (High-A)—While we’re on the subject of future closers, let’s talk about Joseph, who’s right there with Braves lefty Tim Collins as the most dominant lefty reliever in the minors.
Cincinnati’s 3rd-rounder in the 2009 draft has put up numbers that just about anyone would envy across the two A-ball levels. In 48 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just 25 hits, 10 runs (8 earned), and just two homers, while walking 20 and striking out a whopping 85.
Joseph’s nailed down 17 saves on the year and projects to be a rare lefthanded closer in the majors. He throws a fastball in the low 90’s that can get up to 95-96 on occasion, and he throws a wipeout slider as well. Not quite Billy Wagner-level stuff, I suppose, but better than that of Mike Gonzalez or George Sherrill.
Joseph profiles as a Gonzalez type with better control and, hopefully, fewer injuries.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds (AAA)—The Reds entered 2010 not quite knowing how they would fit Alonso and Joey Votto into the lineup together.
That problem is now far on the backburner, though, as Alonso has failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A and clearly isn’t ready to play an offensively challenging position in the majors.
Granted, a .277/.324/.417 line isn’t exactly terrible, but it shows a lack of secondary skills (walks and power) that is very troubling from a first baseman. Alonso has just 19 walks and seven homers in 69 games. The walks have dropped off considerably since his promotion from Double-A, where he walked 19 times in just 31 games, and the power wasn’t there even in Double-A, where he slugged just .406.
At 23, Alonso isn’t the sort of guy who’s all that young for his level, so to be a future MLB starter, he has to produce more than this, particularly in the power department. Low-power first basemen don’t survive very long, and while left field might be an option for him, defensively-challenged low-power left fielders aren’t exactly treasured commodities themselves.
Right now, Alonso profiles more as a Doug Mientkiewicz type with a worse glove. I thought he was an overdraft when he was picked seventh overall in 2008 (ahead of Justin Smoak, for one), and Alonso has done little to change my opinion.

Juan Duran, OF, Reds (Rookie)—Not to pile on Cincinnati fans this week (hey, at least Joseph is good news), but Duran, a highly-acclaimed international signee in 2008, continues to have huge trouble making contact in the low minors.
The 6’7” Dominican behemoth hit just .177 in the GCL last year. He’s doing slightly better in the higher-level Pioneer league, hitting .211/.289/.321, but Duran has whiffed 39 times in 28 games and continues to show remarkably little power for a player with his size and leverage.
Unlike Alonso, Duran is young for his level, turning 19 in a month, so he has time to figure out his swing, recognize breaking balls, and make other adjustments. But we’re now on year three of his career (he played in the Dominican Summer League in 2008), and he has yet to hit .220 or slug .325 in a season.
It looks to me that the site generally does a good-but-not-great job since they didn't acknowledge Yonder Alonso's injury and how well he's been doing lately. Check out the link if you want to read more about Tim Alderson, Jonathan Singleton, and a few more prospects.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 02:13 PM
What you said camis..... Alonso has absolutely been murdering the ball lately, hardly a good time to be suggesting he isn't doing much. I have never seen a report of Donnie Joseph touching 95-96 MPH.

bucksfan2
07-29-2010, 02:24 PM
Doug I read somewhere that Alonso has been moved off LF and back to 1b or DH. Is that true? And if so I have a feeling he won't be with the Reds for much longer.

camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 02:26 PM
Doug I read somewhere that Alonso has been moved off LF and back to 1b or DH. Is that true? And if so I have a feeling he won't be with the Reds for much longer.
Not to steal dougdirt's thunder, but it's absolutely true. It's been determined that Yonder Alonso is a first baseman and first baseman only.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 02:39 PM
Alonso last played in left field on July 6th. Not sure its been given up on entirely, but its looking less and less likely that he winds up there. He was making some progress though.

cinreds21
07-29-2010, 02:43 PM
He was horrible in left. He ran around in circles. He is a first baseman/DH.

cinreds21
07-29-2010, 02:44 PM
That's why I wish the Reds would trade him to TB for Brignac.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 02:47 PM
That's why I wish the Reds would trade him to TB for Brignac.

Why, so they can have a shortstop that likely isn't an upgrade to a guy they already have in Zack Cozart? That doesn't make a ton of sense.

camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 03:15 PM
Why, so they can have a shortstop that likely isn't an upgrade to a guy they already have in Zack Cozart? That doesn't make a ton of sense.
Here are the Reds' shortstop options:
2011 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Orlando Cabrera
2012 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Kris Negron

I understand the thought, and a few months ago, I might've agreed with you, but if the Reds could replace Orlando Cabrera and Kris Negron with Reid Brignac, it could be a big upgrade and some much-needed depth up the middle. Brignac isn't my first choice, but I like the idea of trading Alonso for a major league-ready shortstop. If the Reds do an Alonso-for-Brignac deal, I'd expect Tampa to throw in some prospects, though.

GIDP
07-29-2010, 03:24 PM
I would suggest that the trade market for SS is very under priced right now so much that Yonder for a SS would be a pretty big overpayment. There seems to be an influx of average hitting short stops with good gloves these days. Doesnt mean those guys are bad players but guys like Cozart and Brignac are about as good as a SS prospects go these days.

Id suggest that those guys are fairly replaceable or at least the difference between them and a lower tiered hitter isnt going to be huge.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 04:12 PM
Here are the Reds' shortstop options:
2011 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Orlando Cabrera
2012 - Zack Cozart, Paul Janish, Kris Negron

I understand the thought, and a few months ago, I might've agreed with you, but if the Reds could replace Orlando Cabrera and Kris Negron with Reid Brignac, it could be a big upgrade and some much-needed depth up the middle. Brignac isn't my first choice, but I like the idea of trading Alonso for a major league-ready shortstop. If the Reds do an Alonso-for-Brignac deal, I'd expect Tampa to throw in some prospects, though.

So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?

camisadelgolf
07-29-2010, 04:24 PM
So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?
Absolutely not. Whoever's better between Cozart and Brignac is the starter with the other being the backup middle infielder. Let's say Cozart's the starter. If he's injured, at least you can fall back on Reid Brignac and call up Paul Janish to back up. The Reds have better depth at first base than they do at shortstop, so they can afford to part with Yonder Alonso (not that I'm saying he should practically be given away). I say this because if Votto's injured, you can always call up Todd Frazier or Danny Dorn. But if Cozart or Janish is injured, who do you call up? Kris Negron? I don't know that I feel so good about that.

cinreds21
07-29-2010, 04:35 PM
Reid isn't my first choice but it was the only thing I could come up with that would work. I'm not a big fan of Bartlett or I'd say him.

Rojo
07-29-2010, 05:40 PM
So if we trade for Brignac, do we trade Cozart?

Do you hate up-the-middle depth? At this point, we're overvaluing Alonso.

GIDP
07-29-2010, 05:43 PM
Do you hate up-the-middle depth? At this point, we're overvaluing Alonso.

Trading for a guy who is very similar to the guy you already have seems redundant to me.

Mario-Rijo
07-29-2010, 05:52 PM
Reid isn't my first choice but it was the only thing I could come up with that would work. I'm not a big fan of Bartlett or I'd say him.

I like Bartlett better than OCab and he might actually be available (probably in the offseason) but I wouldn't give up Alonso for him straight up. If they toss in Desmond Jennings or work out some other scenario I'd be all for a swap with TB. Alonso, Stubbs and Bailey in the offseason for Wade Davis, Bartlett and Jennings would be a sweet deal. They get a little more thunder we get some much needed top of the lineup help, wouldn't hurt our defense at all in fact with Bartlett improve it. Plus it would also free up a few bucks for TB to help re-sign Crawford perhaps.

2011

Jennings CF
Bartlett SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Heisey LF
Hanny C

I like the looks of that lineup.

TRF
07-29-2010, 08:25 PM
wait, Duran signed last year at age 16 right? Now he's turning 19?

the excerpt on Alonso completely left out his hamate injury.


meh. shoddy writing.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 08:59 PM
Do you hate up-the-middle depth? At this point, we're overvaluing Alonso.

I don't hate it, but I don't want to trade Yonder Alonso for a back up anything and that is exactly what I see Reid Brignac as to Zack Cozart.

HokieRed
07-29-2010, 09:56 PM
The comment on Alonso is absurd and out of date. There's no comment about the injury and no recognition that recently he's been tearing it up. I hope the Reds do not trade him; it will be, IMHO, a mistake they'll regret. The kid can hit, he wasn't an overdraft, all he needs is time to get over the injury and the at-bats.

GOYA
07-29-2010, 10:09 PM
wait, Duran signed last year at age 16 right? Now he's turning 19?

Duran is 18 and turns 19 on Sept 2nd.

mth123
07-29-2010, 11:00 PM
Short sighted here IMO. Reid Brignac is a lefty bat who can play 2B, SS and 3B. Assumimg Cozart is the guy (and I think he is), Brignac would be a lefty understudy for a splitty 2B who needs more days off against RHP, an unproven SS who has some split issues himself and an aging and gimpy 3B who needs frequent time off now and it will only be moreso as he ages. I don't think Brignac is redundant at all and would be far more valuable than a guy who just has no place to play. A guy like Brignac getting about 400 ABs at all three spots (and maybe in LF as a partner with Heisey as well) is one of the things that this team needs.

I'd deal Alonso for Brignac 100 times out of 100. There is a pretty high bar at 1B and, if Alonso falls just a little short, he's a dime a dozen guy and I'm not sure that makes him the trade chip that we may all hope he is.

TRF
07-29-2010, 11:02 PM
Duran is 18 and turns 19 on Sept 2nd.

I'm old.

Duran signed in 2008 at age 16. there was a strange loophole that allowed the Reds to sign him a bit earlier than other teams thought possible. I was sure he turned 16 in 2008.

dougdirt
07-29-2010, 11:06 PM
Short sighted here IMO. Reid Brignac is a lefty bat who can play 2B, SS and 3B. Assumimg Cozart is the guy (and I think he is), Brignac would be a lefty understudy for a splitty 2B who needs more days off against RHP, an unproven SS who has some split issues himself and an aging and gimpy 3B who needs frequent time off now and it will only be moreso as he ages. I don't think Brignac is redundant at all and would be far more valuable than a guy who just has no place to play. A guy like Brignac getting about 400 ABs at all three spots (and maybe in LF as a partner with Heisey as well) is one of the things that this team needs.

I'd deal Alonso for Brignac 100 times out of 100. There is a pretty high bar at 1B and, if Alonso falls just a little short, he's a dime a dozen guy and I'm not sure that makes him the trade chip that we may all hope he is.

Brignac isn't going to play 3B other than as a back up. He just won't hit enough for it.

It isn't about keeping Alonso, its about filling a different spot than finding a back up.

Kiss the Baby00
07-30-2010, 01:35 AM
a cpl weeks ago we were thinking about trading alonso for cliff lee. now we want to deal him for a weak hitting middle infielder...

....

mth123
07-30-2010, 06:21 AM
a cpl weeks ago we were thinking about trading alonso for cliff lee. now we want to deal him for a weak hitting middle infielder...

....

For two months of Lee as a part of a package with guys like Wood and Heisey. For 5 seasons of Brignac straight up.

A lefty bat that can play 2B, 3b and ss for a low cost would be huge for the Reds. Its also no given that Cozart will be the guy in 2011. Brignac, Janish and Cozart would provide enough alternatives to forego a pricey vet. Alonso isn't going to bring anything better straight up. I think its very questionable that the Rays would do that deal in spite of needing a backfill for Carlos Pena who likely walks after the year.

Brignac is currently at .279/.333/.425/.758 (a 106 OPS+) while playing in the AL east. A move to the NL central and GABP should give those numbers quite a boost. I don't think its a given that Cozart is the better player. but I like them both quite a bit. Cozart has been pretty splitty since hitting the upper minors. Against LHP his OPS in 2010 and 2009 has been .862 both seasons. Against RHP, Cozart put an OPS of .720 in 2009 and .745 in 2010. A lefty hitting guy who can also spell the splitty Phillips and give Rolen a rest would be quite valuable and its something the Reds don't have. Since the team already has the HR, OBP and Slg leader playing 1B, I don't see Alonso having much value at the major league level for the Reds or getting enough AB at the major league level to boost his trade stock much higher. The Reds could hold him for another year at AAA and hope for some monster numbers to boost his stock, but if the plan is to deal him now or in the off-season, he won't bring much more unless packaged with some other highly valued guys.

HokieRed
07-30-2010, 09:26 AM
I see no point in trading Alonso until the Reds have a long term contract of some kind in place with Joey Votto, and I think that possibility becomes slimmer every day. I know lots of RZ members think Votto can be signed on for some 5 year deal favorable to the Reds, but I think that undervalues him. This will probably be dismissed with laughter as well, but I think Alonso is just now beginning to show why the best solution to the LF problem for 2011 may still be to move Joey Votto there.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 03:13 PM
Brignac isn't going to play 3B other than as a back up. He just won't hit enough for it.

It isn't about keeping Alonso, its about filling a different spot than finding a back up.
Brignac is good enough to start for a lot of teams. Yonder Alonso profiles as a starter who, thanks to Joey Votto, would play the role of backup. The Reds already have Todd Frazier and Danny Dorn for that role, however. Trading Alonso for Brignac (plus more, hopefully) would be a move that switches the depth from corner infield to middle infield. It may only be shuffling deck chairs, but to continue with that stupid metaphor, it would be switching to a deck chair with a better view.

HokieRed
07-30-2010, 03:41 PM
IMHO, all talk of trading Yonder Alonso before Joey Votto signs a longer term deal (assuming he does so, which I doubt) is premature.

dougdirt
07-30-2010, 03:44 PM
Brignac is good enough to start for a lot of teams. Yonder Alonso profiles as a starter who, thanks to Joey Votto, would play the role of backup. The Reds already have Todd Frazier and Danny Dorn for that role, however. Trading Alonso for Brignac (plus more, hopefully) would be a move that switches the depth from corner infield to middle infield. It may only be shuffling deck chairs, but to continue with that stupid metaphor, it would be switching to a deck chair with a better view.

I get where you are coming from, but I would rather just go another route. See if Alonso can land you a left fielder for 2011 this offseason. I just see Brignac as a back up on the Reds. I don't think he is better than Cozart and he certainly isn't better than Phillips.

I also wonder why the Rays would trade Brignac at this point. He seems to be their best option at 2B.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2010, 04:38 PM
I also wonder why the Rays would trade Brignac at this point. He seems to be their best option at 2B.
I'm sure the Rays are in no hurry to deal Brignac, but they have a desperate need at first base. Carlos Pena won't be around much longer, and they have no one in the pipeline at first base. Meanwhile, put Matt Joyce in right field with Sean Rodriguez or Ben Zobrist at second base.

HokieRed
07-30-2010, 04:58 PM
Will Alonso bring a better LF than he would be if Votto is moved to LF (i.e. the insertion into the lineup would be Alonso)?

sabometrics
07-31-2010, 02:02 AM
Juan Duran, OF, Reds (Rookie)—Not to pile on Cincinnati fans this week (hey, at least Joseph is good news), but Duran, a highly-acclaimed international signee in 2008, continues to have huge trouble making contact in the low minors.
The 6’7” Dominican behemoth hit just .177 in the GCL last year. He’s doing slightly better in the higher-level Pioneer league, hitting .211/.289/.321, but Duran has whiffed 39 times in 28 games and continues to show remarkably little power for a player with his size and leverage.
Unlike Alonso, Duran is young for his level, turning 19 in a month, so he has time to figure out his swing, recognize breaking balls, and make other adjustments. But we’re now on year three of his career (he played in the Dominican Summer League in 2008), and he has yet to hit .220 or slug .325 in a season.

.305/.367/.451 - .818 OPS in July ... even though he's had two 3-5 days since this article was written it seemed clear before then he's making some progress.

Texas Pete
07-31-2010, 04:59 AM
Duran is still really young.

I like his potential.

dougdirt
07-31-2010, 01:35 PM
Duran is still really young.

I like his potential.

Very true, but his strikeout rate is very poor. He needs to clean it up some, because right now its going to keep his game at a low level because its so high.