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Roush's socks
07-30-2010, 02:53 AM
There is a reason Gomes has 65 RBI so far. He is batting .376 RISP and .308 with runners on. I know all the sabermetrics people will say that has no value since it is "random." But it any other sport like basketball, soccer, football they measure players by the runs/points they actually create, not the "imaginary" runs they would create in a perfect world.
I'm just saying we should recognize he's been pretty clutch so far this year.

Vottomatic
07-30-2010, 03:24 AM
Agreed. All he does is knock people in. If he came up to bat with no one on 4 times in a game, he might go 0-4, but if the 5th time he came with a RISP, he seems to knock them in. That's really what matters.

Difficult to take a guy like him out of the lineup when he produces. Something that Jay Bruce fails to do time and time again.

GIDP
07-30-2010, 08:24 AM
then you figure in his D and realize how unproductive he even if you want to quote a sample size that has dropped .300 points in the last week.

Seriously 100 PA is what makes a player productive? His .700 OPS in his 181 PA with no one on doesnt really matter? Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

I dont understand why people think RISP is all that matters. If every one was only good with RISP then dont you think a team would be awful? Fact is its a pretty small sample size and honestly it doesnt matter that much.

jfleur87
07-30-2010, 09:05 AM
Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

Don't most hitters make outs at least 70% of their at-bats? Unless we are talking about just getting on base, in which case, 3/10 times up to the plate isn't preferred

GIDP
07-30-2010, 09:21 AM
Don't most hitters make outs at least 70% of their at-bats? Unless we are talking about just getting on base, in which case, 3/10 times up to the plate isn't preferred

What else do you think "make outs" mean. Getting on base isnt making an out. Im confused on what you mean by "unless we are talking about just getting on base".

Anyways I think the sample size is the issue more than anything.

League hits .257/.326/.402 total
League hits .251/.313/.395 with no one on base
League hits .265/.343/.413 with runners on base
League hits .261/.352/.411 with RISP
League hits .281/.313/.432 with bases loaded
League hits .259/.326/.406 in night games
League hits .254/.326/.397 in day games

Basically what im trying to point out that over the course of a season and a ton of PA these stats tend to be almost exactly the same. Its just magnified on players because of how limited the amount of PA the player gets in those situations. Is it good to hit well with RISP? Yes, is it good to hit well with RISP and poorly with no one on? No. The seasonal production matters much more.

jfleur87
07-30-2010, 09:31 AM
I suppose what I was going for is that I would take someone getting a hit 30% of the time, but I wouldn't be thrilled with someone only getting on base 30% of the time. But its early, and I tend to take awhile before I can make a coherent thought. That being said, if Gomes ends up with around 20 hrs and around 90-100 rbi's, I guess I don't really care that he isn't that great with the bases empty

GIDP
07-30-2010, 09:45 AM
I suppose what I was going for is that I would take someone getting a hit 30% of the time, but I wouldn't be thrilled with someone only getting on base 30% of the time. But its early, and I tend to take awhile before I can make a coherent thought. That being said, if Gomes ends up with around 20 hrs and around 90-100 rbi's, I guess I don't really care that he isn't that great with the bases empty

Even if its at the cost of everyone else driving in runs? If guys arent on base you cant drive him in. If someone drives someone in 40% of the time and only has someone on base in front of them 30% of the time how many RBI is that guy going to get? If Gomes hit in front of himself he wouldnt have those RBIs. He gets a lot of chances, has done well in those spots, but hes also done poorly in the other spots making others guys production drop. Plus hitting with RISP isnt a repeatable skill it fluctuates year to year. Good players will hit better with RISP because they are better hitters already. Bad players will hit bad with RISP because they are worse hitters. The same is true for bases empty.

Jonny Gomes for his career is a .855 OPS bat with RISP
Gomes with bases empty is a .805 OPS hitter.

The differnce in the stat is basically that hes been IBB 9 times with RISP.

With men on hes a .789 OPS
Day Games: .782
Night games: .805

Guys just dont tend to have vastly huge splits for their whole career. When they rack up more PA the numbers get closer and closer to the career line.

Which for Gomes is .798 OPS.

Griffey012
07-30-2010, 10:26 AM
There is a reason Gomes has 65 RBI so far. He is batting .376 RISP and .308 with runners on. I know all the sabermetrics people will say that has no value since it is "random." But it any other sport like basketball, soccer, football they measure players by the runs/points they actually create, not the "imaginary" runs they would create in a perfect world.
I'm just saying we should recognize he's been pretty clutch so far this year.

He has been regressing to the mean a bit of late...he had a ridiculous .450 avg with RISP early on in the season. But yea, he has been huge for our offense thus far in getting those guys in. Hopefully he continues at a pretty amazing pace.

On a similar note, Ramon deserves some props also as he has been a guy who has been coming up with a lot of big hits with runners on base. He is hitting .309 with RISP compared to his .257 with them empty.

Griffey012
07-30-2010, 10:41 AM
then you figure in his D and realize how unproductive he even if you want to quote a sample size that has dropped .300 points in the last week.

Seriously 100 PA is what makes a player productive? His .700 OPS in his 181 PA with no one on doesnt really matter? Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

I dont understand why people think RISP is all that matters. If every one was only good with RISP then dont you think a team would be awful? Fact is its a pretty small sample size and honestly it doesnt matter that much.

But we are talking about 1 guy and not the whole team. And it's a guy who has been batting 5th for most all the season. That is a spot in the lineup, especially our lineup, where you should put a high value into RISP productivity. Since we have rough OBP's at the top and Votto and Rolen have good OBP's...the 5th spot is going to be up a lot with RISP and needs to produce.

That being said, I don't know all of the saber stats out there. What stats are their that pertain to knocking in runs? Or are there any? The thing I dislike about looking at a RISP slash line is that it is not indicative of a player's ability to drive in runs. If someone hits .400 with all singles, gets the runner in from 3rd with 1 out, and has a lot of sac flys, he is going to get a ton of RBI's, however his OPS may only be .880. Then you may have a guy hit .250 with a few HR's and 2b's get walked at a higher clip and post a similar OPS, but he is going to get way fewer RBI's.

In any case a walk shouldn't be looked at as a negative, so I typically like to look at the ratio of AB's/RBI. Which tells me how often a guy gets the run in compared to how many opportunities he had in which he didn't get a BB,HBP. Still not a perfect or in-depth measure, but I feel like it does more justice than just rbi's or just RISP slash line.

GIDP
07-30-2010, 11:11 AM
I give Gomes his due. Hes hit well in that situation, probably with a good chunk of luck, but still you cant take what has happened back. I just ask why is that stat so much more important to people than the whole package. Splits like OPS with RISP tend to even out. Guys can have better years one year and be bad the next. Its all basically when you happened to get your allotment of hits that year.

The only split that is really worth putting stock into is LH/RH splits, and thats only after a good chunk of PA.

bigredmechanism
07-30-2010, 11:22 AM
No fancy math to back me up here, but I think a guy like Gomes wants to be up in a big situation. Can't say that about every player here. Cough bruce cough.

DocRed
07-30-2010, 11:37 AM
It's shocking to me that his WAR is 0.0 this year. Is WAR just a misleading stat or is his defense really that bad?

GIDP
07-30-2010, 11:40 AM
It's shocking to me that his WAR is 0.0 this year. Is WAR just a misleading stat or is his defense really that bad?

Well he has been a slightly above average hitter and hes below average in the field so is it that surprising that his WAR is 0.0 or 0.1?

DocRed
07-30-2010, 12:03 PM
Well he has been a slightly above average hitter and hes below average in the field so is it that surprising that his WAR is 0.0 or 0.1?

Hmm...dunno. I'm a big Gomes fan so I would like to believe he has been a big asset to the team. I don't understand how his batting value was 10.2 last year but only 1.6 this year.

It's a tuff pill to swallow that he is supposedly based on WAR only as good as a triple A outfielder.

GIDP
07-30-2010, 12:06 PM
Hmm...dunno. I'm a big Gomes fan so I would like to believe he has been a big asset to the team. I don't understand how his batting value was 10.2 last year but only 1.6 this year.

It's a tuff pill to swallow that he is supposedly based on WAR only as good as a triple A outfielder.

His OPS last year was almost .100 points higher.

Roush's socks
07-30-2010, 01:38 PM
I give Gomes his due. Hes hit well in that situation, probably with a good chunk of luck, but still you cant take what has happened back. I just ask why is that stat so much more important to people than the whole package. Splits like OPS with RISP tend to even out. Guys can have better years one year and be bad the next. Its all basically when you happened to get your allotment of hits that year.

The only split that is really worth putting stock into is LH/RH splits, and thats only after a good chunk of PA.

In all sports it is recognized that some players are more "clutch" than others. The whole RISP is "when you happened to get your allotment of hits that year" is crazy. Pitchers pitch different when runners are in scoring position, and hitters hit different. The whole game changes. Although it is true that most players tend to move towards their career OPS, it is also true that some players, over a long career, trend above or below their average when it comes to RISP.

One of my problems with a lot of modern stats is they totally discount RBI's, as if they are TOTALLY the product of luck and how many runners are on base in front of a guy. But RBI's are a measure of real runs that were driven in and won real games, which is the objective of baseball, not having a high OPS or WAR. In every other sport they measure a player by how many runs/points/goals they ACTUALLY score. Even if there is luck involved.

Griffey012
07-30-2010, 01:47 PM
Hmm...dunno. I'm a big Gomes fan so I would like to believe he has been a big asset to the team. I don't understand how his batting value was 10.2 last year but only 1.6 this year.

It's a tuff pill to swallow that he is supposedly based on WAR only as good as a triple A outfielder.

I also think Gomes has been a big asset this year. I typically pay attention to things like WAR and such, but no stat is perfect. I really don't see how he is the worst defensive left fielder in baseball. He is not great by any means, but he is far from being Adam Dunn in left field.

WAR is a combination of a bunch of stats like UZR, wOBA, wRAA, and probably some more.

According to UZR Gomes is a just horrendous fielder and has cost us 10 runs, UZR also says OCab has saved us 5 runs...which many on this board will not buy into.

WAR uses wOBA which does not take any stock whatsoever in situational hitting, but simply gives more value to a HR than a 3b, a 3b than a 2b, and so on. So Gomes 2 rbi single weighs less than a solo HR, because a single creates less runs than a home run independent of the situation.

wOBA = ((0.72 x NIBB) + (0.75 x HBP) + (0.90 x 1B) + (0.92 x RBOE) + (1.24 x 2B) + (1.56 x 3B) + (1.95 x HR) / PA
according to http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-wOBA?urn=mlb-208135

If Gomes traded some of his clutch singles or doubles with RISP into solo home runs, his WAR would be higher even though the team scored less runs as a result.

I could be missing the interpretation of these stats entirely, so someone correct me if I am wrong.

I just feel there is absolutely no way whatsoever Jonny Gomes has been as valuable as anyone else we could have signed for 500k.

texasdave
07-30-2010, 02:35 PM
Sabermetricians are a funny lot. If they can't explain something they tend to ignore it. Of course RISP is a useful statistic. If you have gotten your hits in higher-leveraged situations, that is important. If you are trying to calculate a player's value in any particular season then those things have to be taken into consideration. A single is not a single. Context matters. Nobody is saying that Jonny Gomes will continue to hit like that in higher-leveraged situations. He will probably regress to his career mean. But give him credit for what he has done so far. Gomes was ridiculous with RISP in the month of May and the Reds won a lot of games. There is some correlation.

GIDP
07-30-2010, 03:31 PM
Sabermetricians are a funny lot. If they can't explain something they tend to ignore it. Of course RISP is a useful statistic. If you have gotten your hits in higher-leveraged situations, that is important. If you are trying to calculate a player's value in any particular season then those things have to be taken into consideration. A single is not a single. Context matters. Nobody is saying that Jonny Gomes will continue to hit like that in higher-leveraged situations. He will probably regress to his career mean. But give him credit for what he has done so far. Gomes was ridiculous with RISP in the month of May and the Reds won a lot of games. There is some correlation.

The reds had 1 position player with an OPS below .800 in the month of may. I think the correlation is that everyone had a huge month.

bounty37h
07-30-2010, 04:17 PM
then you figure in his D and realize how unproductive he even if you want to quote a sample size that has dropped .300 points in the last week.

Seriously 100 PA is what makes a player productive? His .700 OPS in his 181 PA with no one on doesnt really matter? Does it matter that when he has came up with no outs in an innings hes made an out 70% of the time?

I dont understand why people think RISP is all that matters. If every one was only good with RISP then dont you think a team would be awful? Fact is its a pretty small sample size and honestly it doesnt matter that much.

I would say it matters a little more then that when watching how many batters this team has left on base this season.

Vottomatic
07-30-2010, 05:41 PM
Who would you rather have up to bat with RISP? Gomes or Bruce.

I rest my case.

scott91575
07-30-2010, 11:56 PM
Well, that is -1 in the real world, not just WAR.

Sorry folks, but Gomes is not good in the field and is trending back to his normal stats at the plate (in other words, not good).

He had multiple times to win this game at the plate and in the field. He did nothing. Sadly, I feel more is to come.

GIDP
07-31-2010, 12:06 AM
Well, that is -1 in the real world, not just WAR.

Sorry folks, but Gomes is not good in the field and is trending back to his normal stats at the plate (in other words, not good).

He had multiple times to win this game at the plate and in the field. He did nothing. Sadly, I feel more is to come.

Tonight just showed how valuable defense is.