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mdccclxix
08-01-2010, 05:46 PM
Mr. Obvious here.

Cordero is a different pitcher this year, and last, than his "hay day".

Many of us Reds fans will recognize the epic, 12 pitch at bats like the one today vs indomitable Matt Diaz (.244 hitter, .284 OBP) where Cordero fires in 96 mph fastball after 96 mph fastball every which way, each one getting fouled away until one, finally, gets crushed. Well, thankfully today that crushed fastball went deep to CF and was caught by our retreating CF for the 1st out of the 9th.

These 1 run leads are not safe.

Anyway, I took a look at Cordero's pitch selection today, not just his low 7.88 K/9. It turns out what I had been seeing was supported by the numbers. Cordero doesn't have a reliable breaking pitch - an out pitch. He relies very heavily on his fastball.

FB%

2010 - 65.6%
2009 - 64%
2008 - 52%

SL%

2010 - 27.3%
2009 - 26.3%
2008 - 37.3%

CH%

2010 - 7.1%
2009 - 9.7%
2008 - 9.7%

So all his breaking pitches have fallen way off. Especially that slider that used to end innings so nicely. 2008 was the last time he threw it with regularity and control. His K/9 back then was 9.98. From 2003-2008 he was never below 9.8 k/9.

Now look at the opponent's batter's contact and swing rates for a minute:

........O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact%
2008 .... 30.4 % ...60.1 % ...43.8 % ...53.9 %
2009.... 25.2 %... 66.5 %... 44.9 %... 56.7 %
2010 .... 30.0 %... 66.4 %... 45.1 %... 69.2 %

The upshot here is that hitters are swinging more often, and more confidently, than ever this year against Cordero, and they are making a great deal more contact than ever (69.2% outside the zone!). This applies inside the strike zone as well:

........Z-Contact% Contact% Zone%
2008....81.2 %... 70.7 %... 44.9 %
2009....83.4 %... 75.6 %... 47.6 %
2010....86.0 %... 79.5 %... 41.5 %

On top of this fastball, fastball, fastball approach is the fact that he's not even throwing strikes as often (41.5%). I wouldn't throw strikes either if I were him - the hitters are just waiting for it, then connecting with it, inside or outside the zone.

So it begs the question: Where's that damn slider Coco?!

I don't recall any injury history with him, but perhaps there was. I hope he can find a breaking pitch of some kind to add to the effectiveness of his heater. Perhaps before October, please?

RBA
08-01-2010, 05:49 PM
I have promoted you from Mr Obvious to Captain Obvious. Enjoy your promotion. You are being frocked, so no pay increase in your new position.

mdccclxix
08-01-2010, 05:54 PM
I have promoted you from Mr Obvious to Captain Obvious. Enjoy your promotion. You are being frocked, so no pay increase in your new position.

LOL, thank you, what an honor. :beerme:

Sea Ray
08-01-2010, 05:54 PM
To me Cordero is the biggest issue that Dusty and Co must address this year and how they address it may very well determine whether this team makes the post season. If Dusty is stubborn and insists on continung to use Coco as his closer then he can be rightly blamed for costing us the post season. This is a test of Dusty's skills and he needs to earn his paycheck and manage this situation well.

I think he should come out and say that he's worried about overusing Coco (like he's said about Leake and Rhodes) and say that he'll be trying others in the closing role like Masset and maybe Isringhausen and Springer.

We've seen Coco for 4 mos now so we know what we're going to get and it's not good. He'll go 3-2 on most every batter and he'll rarely put them away. Some days they'll hit "at 'em balls" (like today) and some days those balls will go over the wall like in Atlanta. With 4 mos of warning, if Dusty doesn't do something to head off this impending disaster then he is guilty of managerial negligence and deserves to not have his contract renewed next yr.

reds44
08-01-2010, 05:59 PM
I actually have liked the way Cordero has pitched post ASB. IMO, he's been a much better pitcher.

Outside of his second inning of work on Friday, he's been pretty lights out.

Cedric
08-01-2010, 06:04 PM
I actually have liked the way Cordero has pitched post ASB. IMO, he's been a much better pitcher.

Outside of his second inning of work on Friday, he's been pretty lights out.

I wish I could agree with you. Conrad basically hit a home run against him and I still see way too many baserunners.

His WHIP and K/9 are getting worse.

reds44
08-01-2010, 06:06 PM
I wish I could agree with you. Conrad basically hit a home run against him and I still see way too many baserunners.

His WHIP and K/9 are getting worse.
His WHIP/BAA/ERA/K/9 are all better in the second half.

He's also 4/4 on saves.

Slyder
08-01-2010, 06:07 PM
His WHIP/BAA/ERA/K/9 are all better in the second half.

He's also 4/4 on saves.

How much longer will he stay perfect if he can't get a perfect 1-2-3 save if his life depended on it?

Tom Servo
08-01-2010, 06:15 PM
He's just not fooling anybody, and he's not throwing strikes consistently. Pretty bad combination.

fearofpopvol1
08-01-2010, 06:45 PM
His WHIP/BAA/ERA/K/9 are all better in the second half.

He's also 4/4 on saves.

Friday's performance was putrid. Saturday's was scary. Today was a little bit better.

Rojo
08-01-2010, 08:08 PM
I don't get to see a lot of games but he seems up in the zone and that's often a sign of fatigue. I'd find a way to rest him a week.

RedsMan3203
08-01-2010, 08:14 PM
How much longer will he stay perfect if he can't get a perfect 1-2-3 save if his life depended on it?

Who cares? He is getting the job done in the end... He might give the whole city of Cincinnati Heart attacks and ulcers, but in the end he has been getting it done...

Pretty ugly, but again, its getting done...

Trust me, I was hoping for Masset/Logan O/Smith to finish the game out today and no CoCO, but the job got done.

The most used word combo used, the job is getting done.

mth123
08-01-2010, 08:21 PM
I don't get to see a lot of games but he seems up in the zone and that's often a sign of fatigue. I'd find a way to rest him a week.

No question he's fatigued. Guy's been abused so much by Dusty he should change his name to Mark Prior.

mdccclxix
08-01-2010, 08:58 PM
Cordero has a lot of innings (48) but it isn't well above most closers in the league right now. I don't know if his decline is due to over use, but I do know his approach is different and could use some more breaking pitches in his repertoire, if he's not injured.

Sea Ray
08-01-2010, 10:02 PM
His WHIP/BAA/ERA/K/9 are all better in the second half.

He's also 4/4 on saves.

If you're going to go by things like that and not what your eyes tell you then you're dealing with fire and likely to get burned. He's not fooling anyone and he can't put batters away. Just about any pitcher can save 80% of his chances. He has been a part of two huge blown 9th inning leads this year. That should be enough of a warning sign. Danny Graves saved a bunch of games in his last year here too. If we wait for him to blow more games then we're in trouble.

Unassisted
08-01-2010, 11:35 PM
Chris pointed out that Cordero had thrown 60 pitches in the Friday and Saturday games as he was being brought into today's game. That's a lot of work.

mdccclxix
08-02-2010, 12:05 AM
Chris pointed out that Cordero had thrown 60 pitches in the Friday and Saturday games as he was being brought into today's game. That's a lot of unnecessary, self inflicted work.

fixed :thumbup:

corkedbat
08-02-2010, 12:21 AM
I thought he's been pretty much vintage Cordero. Seems like every year it's domination interspersed with outings where he has little control or can't keep the ball in the yard - or both. You figure on him being near the top of the league in saves, but you can also figure on him for 6-8 blown saves a year as well.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2010, 12:31 AM
Chris pointed out that Cordero had thrown 60 pitches in the Friday and Saturday games as he was being brought into today's game. That's a lot of work.

Dusty does love him some counting stats though.

mdccclxix
08-02-2010, 12:48 AM
For the sake of it I looked at the number of pitches per inning:

2008 - 18.35
2009 - 16.6
2010 - 18.1

So laboring is nothing new for Cordero. Now, he labors under the hope the batter doesn't crush it, as opposed to hoping he swings and misses.