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reds44
08-02-2010, 10:55 PM
johnfayman Strained oblique for Cabrera. Almost certainly to the DL. Will be examined in Cincy. My guess, Valaika (.301 in AAA) gets the call. #reds

Who gets the call? Cozart, Valaika, Sutton?

Either way, this is a bigger loss than most people realize.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2010, 10:57 PM
From John Fay:

Strained oblique for Cabrera. Almost certainly to the DL. Will be examined in Cincy. My guess, Valaika (.301 in AAA) gets the call. #reds

http://twitter.com/johnfayman

He's not on the 40-man roster but I would make room for Zack Cozart. Cozart is a plus defender at SS and is hitting .268/.333/.448 - .781 OPS and is 24-for-27 in stolen bases with Triple-A Louisville.

Cyclone792
08-02-2010, 10:59 PM
It's probably going to be Janish time full-time now for a few weeks. Paul will get his shot to relegate Cabrera to Pipp land, because if he's playing well the Reds will really take their time with Cabrera, just as they're doing now with Dickerson and Harang.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 10:59 PM
A shame since he has been playing so well since the break.

RedsManRick
08-02-2010, 11:00 PM
I think it will be Valaika to come up in a utility role. Cozart has real starting potential and they probably want him getting full time work.

Ghosts of 1990
08-02-2010, 11:00 PM
now maybe we can see Bruce in the 2-hole?

membengal
08-02-2010, 11:01 PM
...

Reds Fanatic
08-02-2010, 11:02 PM
“It doesn’t look good,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “It’s a side. Those are bad. It’s his left side which is his lead side. That makes it worse.”

Baker was on the phone with general manager Walt Jocketty talking options after the game.



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/08/02/cabrera-likely-headed-to-dl/

RedsManRick
08-02-2010, 11:02 PM
And whoever it is that takes over SS, I'd $100 that they bat either leadoff or 2nd.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2010, 11:03 PM
I just hope Dusty doesn't bat Janish second.

westofyou
08-02-2010, 11:03 PM
The second coming of Darrel Chaney!!

reds44
08-02-2010, 11:03 PM
And whoever it is, I'd $100 that they bat either leadoff or 2nd.
I bet you see some roster shuffling and Dickerson/Heisey splitting times hitting leadoff with Phillips at the top of the lineup.

For the record, I'd call up Cozart.

Ideally I'd have Dickerson in CF and Heisey in LF, with Dickerson/Phillips at the top and Janish hitting 8th.

Cyclone792
08-02-2010, 11:03 PM
And whoever it is, I'd $100 that they bat either leadoff or 2nd.

We know Hanigan won't find his way to the top of the lineup. With that the case, Heisey's a guy I wouldn't mind seeing hit second.

edabbs44
08-02-2010, 11:04 PM
And whoever it is, I'd $100 that they bat either leadoff or 2nd.

I'd make that bet. I think we see Heisey getting some more time and him hitting 2 at times, with the SS fill in hitting there also. No reason except a hunch.

11larkin11
08-02-2010, 11:05 PM
I hope this is the break that Bruce gets to go to the 2 hole.

But this is definitely going to hurt the team. Cabrera is highly underrated around these parts.

Degenerate39
08-02-2010, 11:05 PM
I really hope Janish gets a lot of playing time at shortstop now

membengal
08-02-2010, 11:07 PM
If it were me, I would put Cozart on the 40-man and bring him up.

OnBaseMachine
08-02-2010, 11:07 PM
If it were me, I would put Cozart on the 40-man and bring him up.

Agreed.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2010, 11:09 PM
This really helps Heisey, as well as Janish. I'm guessing Janish hits 8th with the catchers moving to the seventh hole and Heisey (as CF) in the two hole.

I could also see Jocketty bring up Dickerson for Stubbs and explain that away as a team need. (Which would make sense.)

I'd go for Cozart, personally, and let him hit second, thereby not affecting the lineup hardly at all.

Reds Fanatic
08-02-2010, 11:09 PM
I agree on Cozart but I think Valaika gets the call. The other way they could go would be to bring Alonzo up and Cairo could be the backup infielder.

RedsManRick
08-02-2010, 11:10 PM
We know Hanigan won't find his way to the top of the lineup. With that the case, Heisey's a guy I wouldn't mind seeing hit second.

Me either, but that's only happening if he's playing CF instead of Stubbs. It looks like Gomes' spot is his for the remainder.

mace
08-02-2010, 11:11 PM
now maybe we can see Bruce in the 2-hole?

I'm all for that. He'll see good pitches hitting ahead of Votto (provided Votto isn't out for long), and he'll come up less often with runners in scoring position. He's also a very good baserunner.

LvJ
08-02-2010, 11:20 PM
now maybe we can see Bruce in the 2-hole? Don't you know, that's where short stops hit!

WVPacman
08-02-2010, 11:21 PM
Are there any FA shortstops out there waiting for a call from a team??I just don't feel that comfortable with Cozart, Valaika, Sutton backing up Janish if he gets the start which he will.

kbrake
08-02-2010, 11:22 PM
Really tough loss hopefully Votto is back tomorrow and hopefully Janish plays with a chip on his shoulder.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2010, 11:27 PM
Agreed.

I agree too.

Cozart, please.

corkedbat
08-02-2010, 11:28 PM
Really tough loss hopefully Votto is back tomorrow and hopefully Janish plays with a chip on his shoulder.

I'm fine with Janish starting, if he is in the 8th hole. Love the idea of moving Bruce to the two-hole. Gotta do something to jumpstart him.

puca
08-02-2010, 11:28 PM
If it were me, I would put Cozart on the 40-man and bring him up.

You have to be careful here. Unless Cabrera is out for the season I can't see Cozart being added to the 40-man

Dickerson needs a slot soon. I doubt Nix will be DFAed and Cairo certainly won't be. The only other position player I can see them letting go would be Sutton. For pitchers the canidates would be: Owings, DRH, Valliquette or LeCure.

I'm sure they are hoping Isringhausen forces his way on the 40 man roster and remember they are only carrying 2 catchers right. An injury to Hanigan or Hernandez and they have to make room for Corky.


The 40 man is actually pretty full with talent right now.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2010, 11:28 PM
Gomes?

He played for Stubbs tonight. And a couple nights ago.

How do you get Gomes?

Cedric
08-02-2010, 11:28 PM
I'm fine with Janish starting, if he is in the 8th hole. Love the idea of moving Vruce to the two-hole. Gotta do something to jumpstart him.

I wish Bruce had a little Votto in him also! ha.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2010, 11:30 PM
I cannot see how moving Bruce to a spot with MORE pressure on it is going to magically make him a better hitter.

Cedric
08-02-2010, 11:30 PM
You have to be careful here. Unless Cabrera is out for the season I can't see Cozart being added to the 40-man

Dickerson needs a slot soon. I doubt Nix will be DFAed and Cairo certainly won't be. The only other position player I can see them letting go would be Sutton. For pitchers the canidates would be: Owings, DRH, Valliquette or LeCure.

I'm sure they are hoping Isringhausen forces his way on the 40 man roster and remember they only have 2 catchers on the 40 man. An injury to Hanigan or Hernandez and they have to make room for Corky.

The 40 man is actually pretty full with talent right now.

If Jocketty thinks Cozart is his best option you most certainly don't think twice. This is a playoff race and you can't worry about possibly losing an Owings, DRH, or LeCure.

It's a no brainer.

11larkin11
08-02-2010, 11:35 PM
I cannot see how moving Bruce to a spot with MORE pressure on it is going to magically make him a better hitter.

Less pressure because he will be asked more to get on base (which he has been decent at) and less pressure to drive guys in.

Also, he will definitely see WAY better pitches.

Scrap Irony
08-02-2010, 11:46 PM
Why would he see better pitches when he can't hit (and continues to swing at) poor pitches? He's been worse-- much, much worse-- than Drew Stubbs for 30 days now.

And wouldn't he have more pressure hitting higher in the order?

Kc61
08-02-2010, 11:51 PM
So -

Reds have exactly two lefty hitters, Votto and Bruce, in the starting lineup.

Hit them back to back?

I think not.

As for Cabrera i think Janish will rise to the task.

My guess is Sutton will come up as an experienced infielder to backup short and second.

corkedbat
08-02-2010, 11:51 PM
If Jocketty thinks Cozart is his best option you most certainly don't think twice. This is a playoff race and you can't worry about possibly losing an Owings, DRH, or LeCure.

It's a no brainer.

With Rhodes, Bray and Chapman around, plus, Joseph, Valiquette and others on their way, I'd have to move DRH off the 40, if a move has to be made. I think Owings or Lecure would most likely be claimed while there's a decent chance DRH would slide through. If nothing else, I think Owings and Lecure would be of more value as possible pot sweeteners in offseason deals.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2010, 11:54 PM
I doubt it's Cozart. I think it could be Sutton...mostly because he can play multiple positions where as Chris V. will be limited.

HokieRed
08-02-2010, 11:55 PM
I doubt it's Cozart. I think it could be Sutton...mostly because he can play multiple positions where as Chris V. will be limited.

Especially if Votto's going to be out a little while. Gives us a backup at 1b.

fearofpopvol1
08-02-2010, 11:59 PM
Especially if Votto's going to be out a little while. Gives us a backup at 1b.

And Rolen at 3B, if he needs a day off.

puca
08-03-2010, 12:16 AM
With Rhodes, Bray and Chapman around, plus, Joseph, Valiquette and others on their way, I'd have to move DRH off the 40, if a move has to be made. I think Owings or Lecure would most likely be claimed while there's a decent chance DRH would slide through. If nothing else, I think Owings and Lecure would be of more value as possible pot sweeteners in offseason deals.

But someone also has to go for Dickerson. And when/if one of the two catchers is banged up then Corky needs a spot. And Izzy was signed with the intention that he would make it to the roster at some point before September. THen there is the waiver claims. Unless you are not going to place any waiver claims you have to prepared for one or more to go through. Letting Adam Dunn slip to the Cardinals would be a big kick in the groin wouldn't it?

By my reckoning the Reds will need 3-4 40-man roster slots even without adding Cozart.

All three of Owings, LeCure and DRH are likely to be DFAed before the season is out. And that doesn't really bother me.

If they decide they have to add Cozart, I guess they might as well DFA Janish.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 12:17 AM
Sutton is on the 40 man.

Mario-Rijo
08-03-2010, 12:29 AM
Quite interesting, if Votto wasn't hurt I'd have to think Sutton would get the call with Janish starting at SS and Cairo backing him up in a pinch. With Joey hurt though it certainly makes a short stint for Yonder a possiblity. That way Cairo can play either or. I doubt it happens but it could.

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 12:33 AM
But someone also has to go for Dickerson. And when/if one of the two catchers is banged up then Corky needs a spot. And Izzy was signed with the intention that he would make it to the roster at some point before September. THen there is the waiver claims. Unless you are not going to place any waiver claims you have to prepared for one or more to go through. Letting Adam Dunn slip to the Cardinals would be a big kick in the groin wouldn't it?

By my reckoning the Reds will need 3-4 40-man roster slots even without adding Cozart.

All three of Owings, LeCure and DRH are likely to be DFAed before the season is out. And that doesn't really bother me.

If they decide they have to add Cozart, I guess they might as well DFA Janish.

I think they foresee Janish and Cozart battling it out for the starters job next season, with the loser backing the other up. And no way Janish gets DFA's anyway. Far too talented, and there are at least a half a dozen guys on the 40 that would go before him. Janish starts on at least 5 MLB teams right now.

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 12:35 AM
I'm guessing Valaika, whose been on fire with the bat lately, although Frazier is not out of the question.

GOYA
08-03-2010, 12:46 AM
Not Frazier. Not at SS.

CTA513
08-03-2010, 12:53 AM
Play shortstop for the Reds and you'll end up getting hurt.

Signed,
Gonzalez, Keppinger and Cabrera

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 12:59 AM
Not Frazier. Not at SS.

It's just for one game at most, as they call up a real one if Janish gets hurt too.

I'm seeing Janish getting every inning at SS while Cabrera is hurt.

Tom Servo
08-03-2010, 01:06 AM
Three years of Dusty have taught me that Janish will be the starting SS and he'll bat second.

Captain Hook
08-03-2010, 01:18 AM
While I haven't been a big Cabrera fan, he has done decent.Not that I'm glad he's hurt but I am happy that Dusty and Walt will have some time to see some top notch defense at SS and just how much that might reduce the work load for our pitchers.I'm not sure myself if the improved defense is worth the drop off in offense or if there is even that much of a drop off at the plate but at least now we will see.

On a somewhat different note.While I like the chance for the team to try some new things I have a hard time confidently saying I want something that I've clearly wanted all season long when what the team has been doing all season has been working.I'm glad Janish is getting a chance and I'm glad Heisey is getting a chance but now is now longer the time to experiment like it would've been in past seasons.I think I now understand Dusty now more then ever.

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:34 AM
Sutton hit .121 in July and is hitting .048 in his last ten games.

There's absolutely no way he can be called up. I'm DFAing him to make room for Cozart way before I call up Sutton.

mth123
08-03-2010, 02:58 AM
Quite interesting, if Votto wasn't hurt I'd have to think Sutton would get the call with Janish starting at SS and Cairo backing him up in a pinch. With Joey hurt though it certainly makes a short stint for Yonder a possiblity. That way Cairo can play either or. I doubt it happens but it could.

This is my vote. If Votto can't go, I bring up Alonso and let Cairo back-up the IF spots with Jansih playing SS every day. When Votto returns, Yonder goes down and Valaika gets his cup of coffee.

40 Man is too full with Dickerson and Izzy already needing spots. I can't see the team adding Cozart. If Cozart does come up my pecking order for guys released from the 40 man would be:

1. Herrera
2. Sutton
3. Del Rosario

We might see the team postpone the problem by Moving Harang and/or Bailey to the 60 day DL.

mth123
08-03-2010, 03:21 AM
This is my vote. If Votto can't go, I bring up Alonso and let Cairo back-up the IF spots with Jansih playing SS every day. When Votto returns, Yonder goes down and Valaika gets his cup of coffee.

40 Man is too full with Dickerson and Izzy already needing spots. I can't see the team adding Cozart. If Cozart does come up my pecking order for guys released from the 40 man would be:

1. Herrera
2. Sutton
3. Del Rosario

We might see the team postpone the problem by Moving Harang and/or Bailey to the 60 day DL.


Not that I enjoy talking to myself, but Taxasdave just sent me a PM about a rule that I was unaware of. After August 1, any player transferred to the 60 day DL must stay there through the end of the post-season. It looks any move of Bailey or Harang to the 60 day is not going to happen to free a spot unless they are really done for the year.

That added lack of roster space means that we aren't likley to see any player added to the 40 man until after the season unless its some one the team has in its post season plan like Dickerson or Izzy. Cozart, Frazier and maybe even Corky won't be getting a call-up now or even a September look IMO.

So long Danny, the novelty was fun for a while.

Ron Madden
08-03-2010, 03:39 AM
Three years of Dusty have taught me that Janish will be the starting SS and he'll bat second.

I Hate to see anyone get hurt. My first thought was I hope OCab isn't seriously injured. My second thought was well at least Janish will get some playing time. Third thought was Dusty will bat him in the two hole.

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 03:53 AM
I understand the frustration with Dusty and his lineup fetishes, it drives me crazy too.

But just for the record, Janish has had 15 starts this season, and batted 2nd 6 times, and 8th 9 times.

Also, over his career as manager, Dusty has batted the SS in the two slot under 30% of the time. CF batting leadoff is another matter, that is over 90% of the time.

He could bat Janish second every time, but I think it will have more to do with his .370 OBP this year than the fact that he is playing SS. ;)

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 03:58 AM
Not that I enjoy talking to myself, but Taxasdave just sent me a PM about a rule that I was unaware of. After August 1, any player transferred to the 60 day DL must stay there through the end of the post-season. It looks any move of Bailey or Harang to the 60 day is not going to happen to free a spot unless they are really done for the year.

That added lack of roster space means that we aren't likley to see any player added to the 40 man until after the season unless its some one the team has in its post season plan like Dickerson or Izzy. Cozart, Frazier and maybe even Corky won't be getting a call-up now or even a September look IMO.

So long Danny, the novelty was fun for a while.

To be honest, I would not be upset if Bailey or Harang were not not the playoff roster. But I think both are so close to returning that putting them on the 60 day is not an option anyway.

There is a lot of talent on the 40 man roster, but I think there's a lot of guys who won't be missed and who don't have any real trade value. Like LeCure and Sutton off the top of my head.

I think those guys clear waivers and if not, I'm not losing sleep.

GAC
08-03-2010, 04:52 AM
Actaully.... I heard that nate snuck over to OldCab's house and beat him with a pipe wrench. :D

Mario-Rijo
08-03-2010, 05:25 AM
To be honest, I would not be upset if Bailey or Harang were not not the playoff roster. But I think both are so close to returning that putting them on the 60 day is not an option anyway.

There is a lot of talent on the 40 man roster, but I think there's a lot of guys who won't be missed and who don't have any real trade value. Like LeCure and Sutton off the top of my head.

I think those guys clear waivers and if not, I'm not losing sleep.

I seriously doubt LeCure makes it thru alot of teams depleted right now could use him. LAA and 'Zona come to mind. Sutton though I agree on.

Also agree on Harang and Bailey, not missing them right now. It's a shame for Aaron but hey who we are sending out there right now are just better. Both those guys would also likely get the pen worked over as well. I think i'd only bring one of them back if Volquez continues to struggle, but I'd give him alot of rope at this point. He might be walking quite a few but I think he is still less hittable than those 2 guys.

Put Sutton Waivers, Bring up Yonder until Votto is ready then add Cozart if OCab isn't back yet. I know it wouldn't be overly popular but i'd also bring up Dickerson and send down Stubbs for at least 2 weeks or so.

mth123
08-03-2010, 05:48 AM
Need to be careful with Bailey and Harang. A lot of these guys in there now are going to be pushing their inning linits by the end of September. The team should be planning on switching one of them for Leake by the end of the month and I'm not sure if Wood won't be in a similar situation before September is over. Volquez is still pretty iffy too. This team can certainly compete as is, but there is still alot of uncertainty with 5 of the 7 starters and lacking a deal for a guy to nail down a spot, they really need to keep Bailey and Harang available.

The pitching is great now, but October could be real iffy.

Mario-Rijo
08-03-2010, 07:05 AM
Need to be careful with Bailey and Harang. A lot of these guys in there now are going to be pushing their inning linits by the end of September. The team should be planning on switching one of them for Leake by the end of the month and I'm not sure if Wood won't be in a similar situation before September is over. Volquez is still pretty iffy too. This team can certainly compete as is, but there is still alot of uncertainty with 5 of the 7 starters and lacking a deal for a guy to nail down a spot, they really need to keep Bailey and Harang available.

The pitching is great now, but October could be real iffy.

One thing I hadn't considered was Volquez's lack of innings last year so fair point there. Wood probably only has about 45-50 innings left this year, if he's on an innings count that would put him somewhere around 190 he had somewhere around 170 IP last year. Leake I can't recall. I'd like to see Homer and Harang back at the earliest the 3rd/4th week of August.

cincrazy
08-03-2010, 07:31 AM
I don't dislike Cabrera... however, I don't think it will be too difficult to replace a SS who gets on base at a 30% clip, has no power, and limited range. This may in fact be a blessing in disguise.

Always Red
08-03-2010, 08:11 AM
I don't dislike Cabrera... however, I don't think it will be too difficult to replace a SS who gets on base at a 30% clip, has no power, and limited range. This may in fact be a blessing in disguise.

Certainly his numbers can be replaced.

One thing that he provides that gets very little notice around these parts is the veteran leadership he brings to this team. That is something that cannot be measured, so it gets little talk here.

I have talked with more than one person who is very close to this team (FSN) who thinks that Cabrera is the glue that holds this team together. Not my opinion, but theirs.

We'll see. Now is Paul Janish's time to shine; it will be interesting to see if he's up to the task, or if he really is Daryl Chaney and Woody Woodward.

membengal
08-03-2010, 08:28 AM
It is certainly true that leadership is hard to measure, but can't o-cab hang w/ the team while on the DL and keep on leading? Being glue and what not?

nate
08-03-2010, 08:31 AM
Actaully.... I heard that nate snuck over to OldCab's house and beat him with a pipe wrench. :D

Neg!

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 08:35 AM
It is certainly true that leadership is hard to measure, but can't o-cab hang w/ the team while on the DL and keep on leading? Being glue and what not?

My thoughts exactly. Any leadership qualities he has have already worked their magic and had as much effect as they can have. It's not like if he's not playing next to Phillips, Phillips will forget whatever he learned from Cabrera. In fact, Cabrera on the bench might inspire Phillips even more, a chance for the student to prove to the master that he's ready to succeed on his own.

TheNext44
08-03-2010, 08:35 AM
Neg!

Okay, if it wasn't a pipe wrench, what was it? :cool:

_Sir_Charles_
08-03-2010, 08:49 AM
I know many are calling for Cozart to be brought up, but I'd go for Alonso. We've still got Joey out and Janish can fill in for as long as needed IMO. We've also still got Cairo to fill the utility role. But with Votto still out, we need the BAT. Not Sutton's middling skills, Valiaka's well rounded but not excelling in anything skills, nor Cozart's glove and improving bat that's still behind Janish's this season. Give me Yonder.

_Sir_Charles_
08-03-2010, 08:58 AM
So long Danny, the novelty was fun for a while.

Nope. Can't see that happening. He's been too good for us other than this season. He's also pitching well in Louisville. Sutton is not hitting, he doesn't excell defensively anywhere (although he doesn't hurt you defensively either) and he's VERY redundant. Valiaka, Frazier and numerous others are infielders without a set position with better bats. Sutton is shown the door if someone has to be.

Always Red
08-03-2010, 09:03 AM
It is certainly true that leadership is hard to measure, but can't o-cab hang w/ the team while on the DL and keep on leading? Being glue and what not?

Sure, and I think he'd probably do that. Like I said, his numbers can be (easily) replaced.

chicoruiz
08-03-2010, 09:06 AM
I'd go:

Stubbs to Louisville
Cabrera to DL

Dickerson & Alonso to ML

Dickerson/Heisey in #2 slot

Hernandez/Hanigan to #7

Janisch to #8

Valaika to ML when Votto heals.

And I'd be OK with DFA-ing Sutton and/or DRH.

Big Klu
08-03-2010, 09:15 AM
Okay, if it wasn't a pipe wrench, what was it? :cool:

It was with the candlestick in the conservatory.

puca
08-03-2010, 09:21 AM
I'd go:

Stubbs to Louisville
Cabrera to DL

Dickerson & Alonso to ML

Dickerson/Heisey in #2 slot

Hernandez/Hanigan to #7

Janisch to #8

Valaika to ML when Votto heals.

And I'd be OK with DFA-ing Sutton and/or DRH.

I agree with this (and I'm a Stubbs supporter BTW). Although depending on the timing with Dickerson I would consider bringing up Valaika or even Frisco as IF insurance right away (never know when Rolen needs the day off) and bring up Dickerson to replace Alonso when Votto is ready.

cumberlandreds
08-03-2010, 09:32 AM
Okay, if it wasn't a pipe wrench, what was it? :cool:

Has Tonya Harding or any of her friends been seen in Cincinnati lately? ;)

Losing Cabrera,IMO, is really big. I think he has played great defensively as of late and he's been more than adequate in the two hole. It's very difficult to replace a SS at this time of the season. He can still provide plenty of leadership sitting on the bench but it's quite different when your are not playing.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 09:38 AM
This has all the makings of being a "be careful what you wish for" case study.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2010, 11:26 AM
It's a shame that Cabrera got hurt at all, but especially right now. He's had a bad season but at least his bat had been showing signs of life lately as he had hit .333/.395/.391 - .786 OPS in 69 atbats since the All-Star break. The four day break seemed to rejuvenate him. It makes you wonder if he might have played better this season if he had received more days off. It's time for Paul Janish to grab this opportunity by the horns. He's played well in a limited role this season but this is his first chance at extended playing time. Hopefully Paul can take advantage of this situation and play well.

Scrap Irony
08-03-2010, 11:31 AM
A hidden advanage of this injury might be that Cabrera is able to come back really well rested and ready to smack the ball.

The schedule fits, in that he should be able to warm up against some pretty poor pitching staffs at the end of the season.

Might even mean he can help carry an offense at that point.

LawFive
08-03-2010, 11:32 AM
It has been so long since the Reds were considered a possibility to make the playoffs that I haven't kept up with the postseason roster rules. IIRC it seems as if years ago that a player had to be on the 25-man on Aug 31st to be on the postseason roster (except for injuries). Is that still the case or can they pick any 25 out of the 40?

Reds Fanatic
08-03-2010, 11:37 AM
It has been so long since the Reds were considered a possibility to make the playoffs that I haven't kept up with the postseason roster rules. IIRC it seems as if years ago that a player had to be on the 25-man on Aug 31st to be on the postseason roster (except for injuries). Is that still the case or can they pick any 25 out of the 40?Yes that is still the case. Players called up in September are not eligible for the postseason roster. It is going to be interesting to see how they sort out the bullpen spots. The bullpen is already performing well and soon they will want to add Isringhausen and Chapman.

Chip R
08-03-2010, 11:45 AM
It has been so long since the Reds were considered a possibility to make the playoffs that I haven't kept up with the postseason roster rules. IIRC it seems as if years ago that a player had to be on the 25-man on Aug 31st to be on the postseason roster (except for injuries). Is that still the case or can they pick any 25 out of the 40?


I think the injuries part is the key word. Someone said in another thread that the Reds could put a player (say, Chapman or Isringhausen) that wasn't on the 25 man roster on August 31 on the playoff roster to replace someone who is on the DL. The Reds put that one pitcher they got - Arredando? - on the 60 man DL and they could replace him with a September callup. The problem is, who gets the boot off the playoff roster? You'd hate to see someone like Ondrusek and Smith not be included since both have pitched well.

medford
08-03-2010, 11:59 AM
Since in the retractable waiver period now, could the Reds not place Owens, DRH, Sutton, along w/ guys like Bruce, Arroyo, Votto, etc... in hopes that they can sneak an Owens, DRH, or Sutton type thru the waiver wire. If they're selected, either work out a trade or call them back (or let them get claimed to open up a spot), but if they're not claimed, can they then be taken off the 40 man roster to create space for someone like Izzy or someone that they want to get on the 40 man roster prior to the end of August so they can be available in September, if not October playoff baseball? Or would you have to pass them thru a 2nd time in order to get them off the 40 man roster?

It would be a shame for either Logan or Jordan Smith to be left off the playoff roster, but keep in mind they'll likely only need 4 starters in the postseason. The debate would be to shut down Leake for the season including the playoffs and allow Logan, Smith on the playoff roster, or use him out of the pen in case you need a long man in the playoffs and lessen the amount of short relievers you have in the playoffs as you won't need (hopefully) as many relievers due to multiple days off and hopefully solid starting performances.

REDREAD
08-03-2010, 12:45 PM
This is a pretty big blow, IMO. Let's hope Janish can fill in ok. Personally, I think he's Anderson Machado with a better glove, but I hope we can weather this injury.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 12:46 PM
This is a pretty big blow, IMO. Let's hope Janish can fill in ok. Personally, I think he's Anderson Machado with a better glove, but I hope we can weather this injury.

Cabrera is Machado with a decent glove at this point. Shouldn't be much of a loss.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 01:01 PM
The Reds lose their most important (Votto) and probably their least important (Cabrera) players within 24 hours.

RichRed
08-03-2010, 01:09 PM
It is certainly true that leadership is hard to measure, but can't o-cab hang w/ the team while on the DL and keep on leading? Being glue and what not?

My thoughts exactly. If he's a true leader, he won't stop leading just because he's on the bench. I'm sorry he got hurt but I'm looking forward to Janish's glove being out there, as long as his bat isn't a complete wet noodle (and noodling from the 2-spot).

dsmith421
08-03-2010, 01:11 PM
When did we "lose" Votto?

Probably right about the time we fell out of contention while leading the division.

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 01:13 PM
When did we "lose" Votto?

Probably right about the time we fell out of contention while leading the division.

I believed it was first proclaimed in April, followed by mid May, then June, July, and then most recently last Sat.

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:30 PM
#Reds are calling up Juan Francisco or he's vacating in Pittsburgh. Saw him in the hotel. Hitting .286 overall, .302, 11 HRs, 28 RBI in July
That has to be a temporary move until Votto gets healthy.

I like Juan Francisco, but we'll be playing with no backup SS.

Francisco probably gets the start at 3B tomorrow in place of Rolen.

Falls City Beer
08-03-2010, 01:32 PM
"vacating in Pittsburgh"

What? is he going for a colonic?

Reds Fanatic
08-03-2010, 01:33 PM
That has to be a temporary move until Votto gets healthy.

I like Juan Francisco, but we'll be playing with no backup SS.

If it is really Francisco their plan is probably to use Cairo as the backup SS and they will probably use Hernandez to play first.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2010, 01:34 PM
Can Francisco play 1st?

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:34 PM
If it is really Francisco their plan is probably to use Cairo as the backup SS and they will probably use Hernandez to play first.
I would guess that Francisco slides in as Rolen's caddy while Cairo plays 1B.

Once Votto comes back a backup SS comes up. That's just my opinon, of course.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2010, 01:36 PM
I like having Francisco's power off the bench but I'm not a fan of Cairo as the backup SS.

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:36 PM
Doesn't Francisco make Nix kind of redundant?

RedsManRick
08-03-2010, 01:38 PM
And I'm way behind... nm.

guttle11
08-03-2010, 01:39 PM
Doesn't Francisco make Nix kind of redundant?

I think Francisco getting the call means Votto could be out for several days. Cairo will take first with Hernandez as plan B. Juan will fill the day game 3B spot with Janish at short.

Could be wrong, but that's what first popped into my head.

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:40 PM
I think Francisco getting the call means Votto could be out for several days. Cairo will take first with Hernandez as plan B. Juan will fill the day game 3B spot with Janish at short.

Could be wrong, but that's what first popped into my head.
Agreed.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 01:41 PM
That's exactly what will happen. Janish in the 2 hole and Cairo/Ramon at 1b until at least Friday.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2010, 01:43 PM
I like having Francisco's power off the bench but I'm not a fan of Cairo as the backup SS.

Cairo having anything to do with SS would only be for part of one game (if Janish got hurt).

And if Janish got hurt, they could just call up Cozart or Valaika the next day.

bucksfan2
08-03-2010, 01:45 PM
Cairo having anything to do with SS would only be for part of one game (if Janish got hurt).

And if Janish got hurt, they could just call up Cozart or Valaika the next day.

Yea exactly. Heck I would venture that if need be Phillips would shift to SS for one game in Janish is hurt and they can't get Cozart up quick enough.

GOYA
08-03-2010, 01:46 PM
Can Francisco play 1st?

Yes, but his rifle arm is wasted there.

VR
08-03-2010, 01:47 PM
Certainly his numbers can be replaced.

One thing that he provides that gets very little notice around these parts is the veteran leadership he brings to this team. That is something that cannot be measured, so it gets little talk here.

I have talked with more than one person who is very close to this team (FSN) who thinks that Cabrera is the glue that holds this team together. Not my opinion, but theirs.



I think this is the best possible scenario. OCab isn't going anywhere, so he can still provide the veteran leadership so many have mentioned (and I agree with)
The Reds get a dominant glove at SS, and most likely the same offensive production.
No way, no how OCab was going to get benched. I'd like to think this is a lesson on him as well...as his body breaking down could be attributed to playing so much.

reds44
08-03-2010, 01:47 PM
Yes, but his rifle arm is wasted there.
But it'd be good for the fans down the first base line safety.

Isn't JF pretty much Edwin part 2 in the field?

traderumor
08-03-2010, 01:50 PM
That has to be a temporary move until Votto gets healthy.

I like Juan Francisco, but we'll be playing with no backup SS.

Francisco probably gets the start at 3B tomorrow in place of Rolen.How soon we forget. Phillips can play SS while leaping small buildings in a single bound

OesterPoster
08-03-2010, 01:51 PM
How soon we forget. Phillips can play SS while leaping small buildings in a single bound

If they really needed an emergency shortstop, I'd be willing to bet that Mike Leake could do it.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2010, 01:55 PM
Phillips should be the backup SS without a doubt.

mdccclxix
08-03-2010, 01:56 PM
If they really needed an emergency shortstop, I'd be willing to bet that Mike Leake could do it.

LOL, future player-manager too.

traderumor
08-03-2010, 01:57 PM
LOL, future player-manager too.and pitching coach, playing the banjo in the hotel lobby after road wins.

GOYA
08-03-2010, 02:03 PM
But it'd be good for the fans down the first base line safety.

Isn't JF pretty much Edwin part 2 in the field?

No.

Cisco's fielding problems are with his glove, not his arm.
I think he tends to want to throw it before he catches it.
He's not as bad as a lot of people would have you think. But he does make too many errors.

mdccclxix
08-03-2010, 02:04 PM
and pitching coach, playing the banjo in the hotel lobby after road wins.

Best man at several teammate's weddings and life counselor to DRH.

CarolinaRedleg
08-03-2010, 02:27 PM
Best man at several teammate's weddings and life counselor to DRH.

Sharks dedicate a week of TV to him.

indy_dave00
08-03-2010, 02:44 PM
Juan Francisco can also play 1st base and in an emergency a little left field. His bat is hot and he proved in Sept. last season he can drive in runs off the bench as a pinch hitter. We all know if you make a mistake he can homer in any park.

Razor Shines
08-03-2010, 02:49 PM
Sharks dedicate a week of TV to him.

Love "Mike Leake Week" on the Awesome Channel.

reds44
08-03-2010, 04:10 PM
For the record:

johnfayman Cairo says he played a lot ss at triple A last year. "I'm prepared if they need me." #reds

_Sir_Charles_
08-03-2010, 04:18 PM
If they really needed an emergency shortstop, I'd be willing to bet that Mike Leake could do it.

Before everybody starts ragging on OesterPoster here, remember that Leake was a shortstop in college too...high school gold glover.

Always Red
08-03-2010, 04:28 PM
Before everybody starts ragging on OesterPoster here, remember that Leake was a shortstop in college too...high school gold glover.

Mike Leake's beard alone has experienced more than a lesser man's entire body. ;)

CTA513
08-03-2010, 04:31 PM
Before everybody starts ragging on OesterPoster here, remember that Leake was a shortstop in college too...high school gold glover.

I would rather see Gomes play shortstop before seeing a pitcher playing the infield.

IslandRed
08-03-2010, 04:33 PM
I would rather see Gomes play shortstop before seeing a pitcher playing the infield.

Well, it WOULD be a way to limit his innings and get that .435 OBP in the lineup... :p:

No, I'm not serious about that.

medford
08-03-2010, 04:45 PM
I would rather see Gomes play shortstop before seeing a pitcher playing the infield.

Well I assume it would be in an emergency only, and I'd much rather have Leake play SS in an emergency than Gomes. I'm hoping there are no emergencies especially if you consider sliding Brandon over to SS to end a game w/ someone filling in at 2nd would be an option before either of those emergency situations.

_Sir_Charles_
08-03-2010, 04:47 PM
I would rather see Gomes play shortstop before seeing a pitcher playing the infield.

We were talking EMERGENCY shortstop. I was actually dead serious.

IslandRed
08-03-2010, 05:52 PM
Cairo having anything to do with SS would only be for part of one game (if Janish got hurt).

And if Janish got hurt, they could just call up Cozart or Valaika the next day.

Yep. The schedule is favorable here -- we have three days off in the next 15, so no one's going to need a just-because rest day while Cabrera's on the DL, although Rolen could get one the Sunday in Chicago if he needs a full tank for the Cardinals series. Cairo can handle emergency duties at 2B-SS-3B, and in the meantime we put a real bat on the bench.

Obviously the dynamic changes if Votto's out more than a day or two, but let's hope.

GoReds
08-03-2010, 06:07 PM
Mike Leake's nickname should be 'Donut' as in Homer Simpson "Is there anything a donut can't do?

camisadelgolf
08-03-2010, 06:34 PM
Juan Francisco can also play 1st base and in an emergency a little left field. His bat is hot and he proved in Sept. last season he can drive in runs off the bench as a pinch hitter. We all know if you make a mistake he can homer in any park.
Francisco can't really play any position. He can only play a few corner positions in an emergency. He needs to be shipped to the AL ASAP.

Cedric
08-03-2010, 06:37 PM
Francisco can't really play any position. He can only play a few corner positions in an emergency. He needs to be shipped to the AL ASAP.

He can't possibly be worse than Gomes.

nemesis
08-03-2010, 06:38 PM
Here is the skinny. While Cabrera may be missed as an on the field leader, his production on the field won't be. Even with his "Hot" streak since the break, his OPS+ is only 71. That's SEVENTY ONE. His WAR value is 0.4 for the entire season. Janish even in his small small sample size has a 0.8 WAR so far. So in the 369 additional AB's that Cabrera has had (441 to 72), he has managed to be half as valuable as Janish. As poor as Janish was in 2009 at the plate, he was still able to post a 1.0 WAR. So if he can match Cabrera's .641 OPS while playing Janish level D, he will be a 1.5ish WAR player. A 1.1 WAR upgrade over Cabrera. If he can maintain a .700 OPS which I think he can, he would be almost a 2.0 WAR player. Any way you slice it, they team upgraded itself at SS today.

pedro
08-03-2010, 06:40 PM
Here is the skinny. While Cabrera may be missed as an on the field leader, his production on the field won't be. Even with his "Hot" streak since the break, his OPS+ is only 71. That's SEVENTY ONE. His WAR value is 0.4 for the entire season. Janish even in his small small sample size has a 0.8 WAR so far. So in the 369 additional AB's that Cabrera has had (441 to 72), he has managed to be half as valuable as Janish. As poor as Janish was in 2009 at the plate, he was still able to post a 1.0 WAR. So if he can match Cabrera's .641 OPS while playing Janish level D, he will be a 1.5ish WAR player. A 1.1 WAR upgrade over Cabrera. If he can maintain a .700 OPS which I think he can, he would be almost a 2.0 WAR player. Any way you slice it, they team upgraded itself at SS today.

We'll see. I'm betting Janish OPS' around .600 while he's starting.

westofyou
08-03-2010, 06:42 PM
We'll see. I'm betting Janish OPS' around .600 while he's starting.

Gary Green time baby, Gary Green

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 06:44 PM
Here is the skinny. While Cabrera may be missed as an on the field leader, his production on the field won't be. Even with his "Hot" streak since the break, his OPS+ is only 71. That's SEVENTY ONE. His WAR value is 0.4 for the entire season. Janish even in his small small sample size has a 0.8 WAR so far. So in the 369 additional AB's that Cabrera has had (441 to 72), he has managed to be half as valuable as Janish. As poor as Janish was in 2009 at the plate, he was still able to post a 1.0 WAR. So if he can match Cabrera's .641 OPS while playing Janish level D, he will be a 1.5ish WAR player. A 1.1 WAR upgrade over Cabrera. If he can maintain a .700 OPS which I think he can, he would be almost a 2.0 WAR player. Any way you slice it, they team upgraded itself at SS today.

Phenomenal illustration of why common sense needs to be applied to some statistics. At least occasionally.

kheidg-
08-03-2010, 06:47 PM
Any way you slice it, they team upgraded itself at SS today.

While I don't mind seeing Janish in there for a few week period, I don't agree with you one bit that we are upgrading.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2010, 06:52 PM
Here is the skinny. While Cabrera may be missed as an on the field leader, his production on the field won't be. Even with his "Hot" streak since the break, his OPS+ is only 71. That's SEVENTY ONE. His WAR value is 0.4 for the entire season. Janish even in his small small sample size has a 0.8 WAR so far. So in the 369 additional AB's that Cabrera has had (441 to 72), he has managed to be half as valuable as Janish. As poor as Janish was in 2009 at the plate, he was still able to post a 1.0 WAR. So if he can match Cabrera's .641 OPS while playing Janish level D, he will be a 1.5ish WAR player. A 1.1 WAR upgrade over Cabrera. If he can maintain a .700 OPS which I think he can, he would be almost a 2.0 WAR player. Any way you slice it, they team upgraded itself at SS today.

Except Cabrera's WAR is 1.0, and Janish's is .4, and that can entirely be related to his extremely volatile .333 wOBA, which we all know is not where it will be at year end.

nemesis
08-03-2010, 06:53 PM
While I don't mind seeing Janish in there for a few week period, I don't agree with you one bit that we are upgrading.

May I ask why?

nemesis
08-03-2010, 06:55 PM
Except Cabrera's WAR is 1.0, and Janish's is .4, and that can entirely be related to his extremely volatile .333 wOBA, which we all know is not where it will be at year end.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

I don't know where you got his WAR at 1, but here is where I got my info.

PuffyPig
08-03-2010, 06:56 PM
We'll see. I'm betting Janish OPS' around .600 while he's starting.

If that is true, his defensive upgrade over Cabrerra makes him a better choice anyway.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2010, 06:57 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

I don't know where you got his WAR at 1, but here is where I got my info.

Fangraphs.

Which proves my point: there is no point in comparing those numbers.

pedro
08-03-2010, 06:58 PM
If that is true, his defensive upgrade over Cabrerra makes him a better choice anyway.

That's what I keep hearing. Still not buying it though.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 07:00 PM
Fangraphs.

Which proves my point: there is no point in comparing those numbers.

Is there a problem with the same stat being reported by two reputable sites with one being 100% different than the other?

reds44
08-03-2010, 07:07 PM
I don't buy into Janish being better than Cabrera. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire truth.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2010, 07:13 PM
I don't buy into Janish being better than Cabrera. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire truth.

But sometimes, you do my friend :thumbup:.

nemesis
08-03-2010, 07:13 PM
I don't buy into Janish being better than Cabrera. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire truth.

I don't think over the length of their careers Janish will be the better player. But right now, it's close. This two weeks stint will be very revealing to the answer. Janish will get more AB's in the next 15 days than he has had all season.

nate
08-03-2010, 07:14 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2010.shtml

I don't know where you got his WAR at 1, but here is where I got my info.

BR's WAR is different from Fangraphs in that I don't believe it includes defense.

mdccclxix
08-03-2010, 07:32 PM
Personally, I expect some nice doubles power and perhaps a few HR from Janish. He'll be facing all caliber of pitching, so we'll see how it shakes out. I like his track record so far this year. I think he's an improved hitter with the time he's spent working on it. Remember, he was in line and prepared to be the starter until Ocab was picked up late on the cheap.

Reds Fanatic
08-03-2010, 07:56 PM
This is from John Fay:


Miguel Cairo role changes with this, as well.

“Right now, he’s my super utility,” Baker said. “Third, shortstop, second, first. We’ve got Francisco to spell Scott (Rolen) at third. I told (Francisco) to work out some at first base. We’ve got to mix and match. Everyone’s got to pick up more slack, carry more weight. We don’t have much choice.”

Always Red
08-03-2010, 08:12 PM
Sometimes stats don't tell the entire truth.

blasphemer

mth123
08-03-2010, 08:48 PM
Gary Green time baby, Gary Green

Yep. Janish is around for just this situation. Should be in AAA the rest of the time and give the manager a guy he'll use otherwise. Just like Gary Green.

reds44
08-03-2010, 08:49 PM
This is from John Fay:
It'll be interesting to see who plays 3rd tomorrow.

RedsManRick
08-03-2010, 09:06 PM
I don't buy into Janish being better than Cabrera. Sometimes stats don't tell the entire truth.

Therefore, let's just stick with our existing beliefs and only use stats when they confirm them? I get that some stats are less reliable than others. But the selective use and frequent misuse of them (often via small or selectivity biases) only makes the perception worse.

UZR & WAR aren't perfect, certainly. But from an overall player valuation perspective, it's tough to take an amateur's fan gut calculus over a process which is transparent and reviewable.

edabbs44
08-03-2010, 09:54 PM
Therefore, let's just stick with our existing beliefs and only use stats when they confirm them? I get that some stats are less reliable than others. But the selective use and frequent misuse of them (often via small or selectivity biases) only makes the perception worse.

UZR & WAR aren't perfect, certainly. But from an overall player valuation perspective, it's tough to take an amateur's fan gut calculus over a process which is transparent and reviewable.

Is WAR accurate in very small sample sizes, like what Janish has seen this year?

Heath
08-03-2010, 10:30 PM
I was waiting for this thread to very slightly off topic with references to Chuck Norris vs. Mike Leake comments.

RedsManRick
08-03-2010, 11:39 PM
Is WAR accurate in very small sample sizes, like what Janish has seen this year?

As a measure of past performance, yes. As a predictor of future performance, no.

nemesis
08-03-2010, 11:54 PM
It'll be interesting to see who plays 3rd tomorrow.

Probably Cairo. With Votto back it makes the most Dusty sense.

Ron Madden
08-04-2010, 03:45 AM
Probably Cairo. With Votto back it makes the most Dusty sense.


Take it to the bank.

Unless Dusty wants to give Cairo a breather and save him for down the stretch. LOL

OesterPoster
08-04-2010, 08:28 AM
With a Karstens going for Pittsburgh today, it really should be Francisco starting at 3rd. Karstens' righty/lefty splits are pretty obvious. I'd even go Nix-Heisey-Bruce across the outfield to get as many lefties into the lineup as possible.

Karstens this year against RH: ERA of 3.23, slugging .425, BA of .242
Karstens this year against LH: ERA of 6.08, slugging .625, BA of .357

Also, big differences in K's per 9, BB's per 9, and practically every stat you can imagine.

Load the lineup with lefties today.

REDREAD
08-04-2010, 11:47 AM
UZR & WAR aren't perfect, certainly. But from an overall player valuation perspective, it's tough to take an amateur's fan gut calculus over a process which is transparent and reviewable.

Any stat that says Janish has been twice as valuable as Caberra this season though has to be met with suspicion also (.4 WAR for Caberra vs .8 WAR for Janish).
I know Cabbera isn't exactly an MVP, but that's pretty absurd, IMO. Janish has only had 67 ABs this season.. Maybe WAR is projecting over the entire season (I have no idea how WAR works). Maybe it is assuming Janish can maintain a 364 OBP over the season.. We all know that isn't going to happen if he plays regularly.

pedro
08-04-2010, 11:50 AM
Therefore, let's just stick with our existing beliefs and only use stats when they confirm them? I get that some stats are less reliable than others. But the selective use and frequent misuse of them (often via small or selectivity biases) only makes the perception worse.

UZR & WAR aren't perfect, certainly. But from an overall player valuation perspective, it's tough to take an amateur's fan gut calculus over a process which is transparent and reviewable.

But WE amateurs aren't making these decisions, actual professionals are and yet you don't seem to accept that they have access to information and insights that we, as fans, don't. When considering a player change that is accepted as almost purely lateral (by even the most stats minded fans) without one player (janish) outplaying his past offensive performance is it really so hard to accept that maybe there are perfectly valid reasons for sticking with the status quo that don't show up in UZR and WAR?

RedsManRick
08-04-2010, 12:04 PM
But WE amateurs aren't making these decisions, actual professionals are and yet you don't seem to accept that they have access to information and insights that we, as fans, don't. When considering a player change that is accepted as almost purely lateral (by even the most stats minded fans) without one player (janish) outplaying his past offensive performance is it really so hard to accept that maybe there are perfectly valid reasons for sticking with the status quo that don't show up in UZR and WAR?

I don't know why you think I have trouble accepting that there are perfectly valid reasons. I'm fully comfortable with that possibility. But you can't have your cake and eat it to. If your position is that the differences between them are non-statistical, you can't turn around and bring up stats as your evidence that Cabrera is the better choice.

The stats suggest that neither is clearly a better option than the other. It sounds like we can agree on that. I'll grant you the possibility that, from the Reds perspective, other factors justify Cabrera as the starter. I'm very curious to get a better understanding about what those factors are and how teams go about balancing those factors with on-field performance.