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cinreds21
08-03-2010, 12:03 AM
Here we go.

Via John Fay:


Strained oblique for Cabrera. Almost certainly to the DL. Will be examined in Cincy. My guess, Valaika (.301 in AAA) gets the call.

bshall2105
08-03-2010, 12:05 AM
Wow, here comes Paul Janish chance to shine. I wish Cozart could come up though.

Dale4Saul2Red0
08-03-2010, 12:10 AM
Now all the Cabrera haters get their wish

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:12 AM
if the Reds wanted to bring up the best SS they would bring up Cozart.

Odds are Valaika gets the call though.

cinreds21
08-03-2010, 12:13 AM
Yea, with Cozey not on the 40 and Valaika already being on it really gives the Reds no choice, especially since the roster is full.

bshall2105
08-03-2010, 12:14 AM
if the Reds wanted to bring up the best SS they would bring up Cozart.

Odds are Valaika gets the call though.

Is Valaika another Paul Janish, or does he project to be a good hitter?

texasdave
08-03-2010, 12:16 AM
I think he hits better, fields not as well.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:19 AM
Is Valaika another Paul Janish, or does he project to be a good hitter?

Valaika is a better hitter but probably average at SS. Hes been playing mostly 2nd for a while now. Jeff Keppinger type of player if I had to do a quick comparison.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 12:23 AM
This is disappointing, he has been a different player since the all-star break. Hopefully Janish and whoever else get time take advantage of their opportunity.

gedred69
08-03-2010, 12:26 AM
In short, gotta' finally give Mr. Glove (aka) Janish, the 1st shot. Then it gets interesting. Valaika's MLB ready bat or Cozart's glove? Dunno, which has a better lead-off approach at the the plate? I hope maybe we see a '90 repeat, with Duncan filling in for the injured Doran. That would be keen, eh?

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:27 AM
Cozart has out hit Valaika this year btw.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:28 AM
Cozart is flat out the better player but he isnt on the 40 man roster.

gedred69
08-03-2010, 12:44 AM
Cozart has out hit Valaika this year btw.

My point is, which one could better lead-off at MLB? The stats can be construed either way, (BA, HRs, SOs, OBP, ABs, etc). Do you see these guys play regularly enough to know? I'm not looking for a debate, I'm looking for a knowledgeable evaluation from someone who sees them play. I would expect the former #1 prospect, with more experience might be more ready to step to the plate at GABP. Do you see them play often? I know there are posters here who do, how about some opinions?

Hondo
08-03-2010, 12:46 AM
Janish just does not hit Major League Pitching... Greag Glove guy for routine plays but he is not what the team needs... Maybe a Waiver Wire deal for a Short Stop?

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:59 AM
My point is, which one could better lead-off at MLB? The stats can be construed either way, (BA, HRs, SOs, OBP, ABs, etc). Do you see these guys play regularly enough to know? I'm not looking for a debate, I'm looking for a knowledgeable evaluation from someone who sees them play. I would expect the former #1 prospect, with more experience might be more ready to step to the plate at GABP. Do you see them play often? I know there are posters here who do, how about some opinions?

Cozart has been the better hitter and has the better glove. If they wanted the best player Cozart would be the guy. The problem is 40 man is full and dropping someone off the 40 man for Cozart when you have Valaika already on it probably isnt the smartest move. Valaika can play some SS he just isnt the rangiest of players. Good glove plays a good 2nd, can play a good 3rd. Has hit decent in the past but is a step below Cozart at basically everything other than Batting average.

then again if Cabrera is out a long time maybe they actually do go for Cozart.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:00 AM
I have this strange feeling it is the Reds' year and it doesn't matter who replaces Cabrera. That is based on absolutely nothing. And if the Reds' pitching staff keep up their pace it just might not matter all that much.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:05 AM
totally outside the box idea

Yonder up while Votto is nursing the wrist. Once Votto is good to go, then bring up the back up SS.

davereds24
08-03-2010, 01:14 AM
You can't play a game or two without a backup ss and 2b.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:16 AM
You can't play a game or two without a backup ss and 2b.

Cairo, and if Janish gets hurt then you deal with it the next day.

757690
08-03-2010, 01:19 AM
totally outside the box idea

Yonder up while Votto is nursing the wrist. Once Votto is good to go, then bring up the back up SS.

Not a bad idea, especially since Yonder will get called up in a month anyway.

BTW, Valaika is crushing the ball over a 1.000 OPS the last week and this line since the All- Star break"

.380 .542 .922

Fraizer is hitting well as of late too.

I would love to see Cozart up, just to see what he can do, but I think they see him as the SS of the future and want him starting as much as possible.

Valaika and Frazier seem more like super sub guys in the majors, so it makes more sense for them to be a backup for awhile. And if Janish is starting, I think they will go with a more offensive minded backup.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:21 AM
I just read something on Wikipedia that was odd. Remember this is Wikipedia. It states that if you move a player from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL you can open a spot on your 40-man roster. However, it further states that if you place a player on the 60-day DL after August 1st they can't play the rest of the season. If this is true then why didn't they move both Harang and Bailey onto the 60-day DL before the end of July? I am assuming that if they are on the 60-day DL before August they can come back and play.
Bailey has been on the DL since the end of May, so he has passed the 60-day limit and the move would have been strictly procedural. Harang went on the DL on June 30 so his 60 days would have been over before the end of August. Therefore, if he was ready he could still would have been playoff eligible. However, since he isn't even rehabbing yet that point is probably moot. It seems as though they missed the chance to open two spots on the 40-man roster. There must be a catch here somewhere. These rules can be very confusing. I need an Advil.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:23 AM
Frazier will probably never play SS in the majors. Hes a big kid.

If I'm going for a back up Valaika is the guy just because he can play SS better than the other options.

If I wanted to go with probable best team id bring up Yonder for a few days, then bring up Valaika after Votto heals completely.

If I wanted to bring the best SS up Cozart with out question, but I doubt they give a rookie the playing time over Janish.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:24 AM
I just read something on Wikipedia that was odd. Remember this is Wikipedia. It states that if you move a player from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL you can open a spot on your 40-man roster. However, it further states that if you place a player on the 60-day DL after August 1st they can't play the rest of the season. If this is true then why didn't they move both Harang and Bailey onto the 60-day DL before the end of July? I am assuming that if they are on the 60-day DL before August they can come back and play.
Bailey has been on the DL since the end of May, so he has passed the 60-day limit and the move would have been strictly procedural. Harang went on the DL on June 30 so his 60 days would have been over before the end of August. Therefore, if he was ready he could still would have been playoff eligible. However, since he isn't even rehabbing yet that point is probably moot. It seems as though they missed the chance to open two spots on the 40-man roster. There must be a catch here somewhere. These rules can be very confusing. I need an Advil.
You can probably back date it.

davereds24
08-03-2010, 01:27 AM
Cairo is starting while Votto is out, you can guarantee that. There is no reason why he shouldn't either, Yonder included. It's not like Votto is out a month.

bshall2105
08-03-2010, 01:28 AM
Cairo is starting while Votto is out, you can guarantee that. There is no reason why he shouldn't either, Yonder included. It's not like Votto is out a month.

Votto could be out the rest of the season for all we know.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:29 AM
IMO they will give Votto every chance to be ready for the St. Louis series. If he goes on the DL he misses that series.

davereds24
08-03-2010, 01:31 AM
Votto could be out the rest of the season for all we know.

Dusty said postgame hopefully he will be back tomorrow, maybe Wednesday. If he's out the season it doesn't really matter what they do, but then you obviously replace his spot with Alonso. Not very hard to figure out.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:41 AM
Looked up strained oblique online. Reds' fans better hope it is not serious. This is what the study I looked up had to say about recovery time.


A major limitation of this study was the lack of surgical or pathologic correlation. However, the MRI abnormality corresponded to the region of point of tenderness and pain. In the three patients who were monitored, the muscle defect was filled in with low signal compatible with scar tissue. Nine of the 10 patients in our study cohort returned to competition without impairment of function or apparent significant loss of strength. The typical recovery time was between 6 and 10 weeks. One patient had surgical excision of a mass of scar tissue that had formed beneath the rib.

Is there a doctor in the house?

13 in hall
08-03-2010, 01:42 AM
Valakia hurt his knee the other day don't know how bad though. GOYA who constantly watches Louisville play says Valakia can not and will never play shortstop. Not enough arm if it's Sutton I will be upset he's like 2 for his last 31. Just see if DRH or Owings passes through waivers and add Cozart. Many tough choices will need to be made this off season with the 40 man so may as well make one now. Can not play without a backup plan at short position is way to important. Can't be giving games away now because someone has no range.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 01:54 AM
An oblique injury for a baseball player is a pretty bad injury to have. Based on how much discomfort he appeared to be in, I wouldn't be surprised if he were gone for the next month.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:55 AM
Generally I think it knocks players out for at least 1 month. In most cases its 6-8 weeks.

davereds24
08-03-2010, 01:55 AM
I think the big question is are they going to hand the keys to Janish or do they want someone who will get some starts. It seems Dusty doesn't think Janish can do much based on his playing time. I wonder what he told Walt.

davereds24
08-03-2010, 02:03 AM
Generally I think it knocks players out for at least 1 month. In most cases its 6-8 weeks.

The time out might pose another dilemma. If he's going to be out until September whoever comes up could potentially be in competition with Janish for a postseason roster spot.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 02:05 AM
I think the key to this whole thing is how severe the injury to Cabrera is. If it's a couple weeks, you can call up Valaika as the backup and give the starts to Janish. I say this because I think regardless of who gets called up, Janish is going to be the guy in getting the starts initially.

If it's looking like a longer-term deal, you owe it to this team to bring up the best player, period. If that means a tough decision has to be made, then so be it. I just don't want to see us skimping in a pennant race to save Micah Owings' future with the Reds.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:08 AM
The time out might pose another dilemma. If he's going to be out until September whoever comes up could potentially be in competition with Janish for a postseason roster spot.

If its a bad injury they have to bring up Cozart. Hes the only ML ready every day SS they have. If its a month or a couple weeks I think they try to skate by with Valaika.

roby
08-03-2010, 02:09 AM
6-8 weeks will pretty much be the remainder of the season, ouch.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:15 AM
I dont know how much it will really hurt. Basically cabrera has been the 7th or 8th most valuable player on this team statistically all season long.

bshall2105
08-03-2010, 02:18 AM
I dont know how much it will really hurt. Basically cabrera has been the 7th or 8th most valuable player on this team statistically all season long.

It's going to hurt because everyone on the team will dip into a deep depression because Orlando is not in the lineup. He is what makes the rest of the team get out of bed and come to the ball park everyday.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:26 AM
It's going to hurt because everyone on the team will dip into a deep depression because Orlando is not in the lineup. He is what makes the rest of the team get out of bed and come to the ball park everyday.

Thats why I said statistically :)

Kradokk
08-03-2010, 03:35 AM
What is Barry Larkin up to these days? ;)

ian_madden
08-03-2010, 11:48 AM
What if we sent down Bruce (and I am a fan of Bruce) to fix his swing, bring up CDick, and Valakia. That fixes the top of order problem and the backup ss problem.

CDick RF
BP 2nd
Votto 1st
Rolen 3rd
Gomes LF
Heisey/ Stubbs CF
hanagan/ Hernandez c
Janish ss

I think that works till Bruce fixes his swing then we deal with a better problem, who to send down when he is ready.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 12:19 PM
It took an injury (not surpisingly) to get Orlando to the bench and out of the 2 hole. Our defense just took a major stride in improvement and if Dusty bats Janish 8th and Hanigan in the 2 spot. Also I would hope Heisey will see some more playing time.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 12:20 PM
If its a bad injury they have to bring up Cozart. Hes the only ML ready every day SS they have. If its a month or a couple weeks I think they try to skate by with Valaika.

No they have Paul janish who is much more ML ready.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 12:28 PM
It took an injury (not surpisingly) to get Orlando to the bench and out of the 2 hole. Our defense just took a major stride in improvement and if Dusty bats Janish 8th and Hanigan in the 2 spot. Also I would hope Heisey will see some more playing time.

I really hope your not happy that OCab is headed to the DL. Since the All-Star break OCab has been hitting .333 with a .395 OBP...he has been hot of late and huge for us, this is not the right time for him to hit the DL. The right time was pre all-star break with his bum ankle.

I just hope you realize Janish will probably hit .225 with a .600 OPS if he gets extended time.

bgwilly31
08-03-2010, 12:38 PM
I really hope your not happy that OCab is headed to the DL. Since the All-Star break OCab has been hitting .333 with a .395 OBP...he has been hot of late and huge for us, this is not the right time for him to hit the DL. The right time was pre all-star break with his bum ankle.

I just hope you realize Janish will probably hit .225 with a .600 OPS if he gets extended time.

He absolutely does NOT understand that. Apparently they didnt get the drift when Hairston had his injury last year. Janish had his chance then and the team went on a serious drought during his injury.

lets hope that doesnt repeat itself.

We basically just bought ourselves another hole in our already struggling offense.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 12:39 PM
I really hope your not happy that OCab is headed to the DL. Since the All-Star break OCab has been hitting .333 with a .395 OBP...he has been hot of late and huge for us, this is not the right time for him to hit the DL. The right time was pre all-star break with his bum ankle.

I just hope you realize Janish will probably hit .225 with a .600 OPS if he gets extended time.

i am happy, yes he was 'hot' since the All Star break, but look at his numbers overall, they are HORRIBLE for a 2 spot hitter. Add to that the fact the man has the range of nothing and we are already better by having Janish at SS and hopefully someone like Hanigan in the 2 spot. Maybe if Dusty would have given him some days off more often this wouldn't have happened, but getting Janish at SS is a good thing.

bgwilly31
08-03-2010, 12:43 PM
i am happy, yes he was 'hot' since the All Star break, but look at his numbers overall, they are HORRIBLE for a 2 spot hitter. Add to that the fact the man has the range of nothing and we are already better by having Janish at SS and hopefully someone like Hanigan in the 2 spot. Maybe if Dusty would have given him some days off more often this wouldn't have happened, but getting Janish at SS is a good thing.


Maybe you havent noticed, but the only thing holding this team back from the playoffs is OFFENSE.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 12:49 PM
i am happy, yes he was 'hot' since the All Star break, but look at his numbers overall, they are HORRIBLE for a 2 spot hitter. Add to that the fact the man has the range of nothing and we are already better by having Janish at SS and hopefully someone like Hanigan in the 2 spot. Maybe if Dusty would have given him some days off more often this wouldn't have happened, but getting Janish at SS is a good thing.

How are his overall numbers relevant to how he was playing at the time of his injury? Newsflash: Those games in May and June are over. What matters is the games in August and September, and based on the way Cabrera was hitting over the past 5 weeks or so, this will be a loss offensively.

I have no problem with looking at full season numbers, but look at them at the end of the year when you are trying to figure out how to build next year's team. The fact is we stuck with Cabrera through his horrible baseball, now he's playing very solid baseball and we're happy he's injured?

Which player would you rather lose for a month right now, on August 3 - Cabrera or Stubbs?

brm7675
08-03-2010, 12:53 PM
Maybe you havent noticed, but the only thing holding this team back from the playoffs is OFFENSE.

And if Dusty bats Hanigan 2nd and puts Janish in the 8 hole we have a much better offense.:thumbup:

GIDP
08-03-2010, 12:54 PM
I really hope your not happy that OCab is headed to the DL. Since the All-Star break OCab has been hitting .333 with a .395 OBP...he has been hot of late and huge for us, this is not the right time for him to hit the DL. The right time was pre all-star break with his bum ankle.

I just hope you realize Janish will probably hit .225 with a .600 OPS if he gets extended time.

Cabrera has basically been giving the Reds a .600 OPS all season long.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 12:55 PM
How are his overall numbers relevant to how he was playing at the time of his injury? Newsflash: Those games in May and June are over. What matters is the games in August and September, and based on the way Cabrera was hitting over the past 5 weeks or so, this will be a loss offensively.

I have no problem with looking at full season numbers, but look at them at the end of the year when you are trying to figure out how to build next year's team. The fact is we stuck with Cabrera through his horrible baseball, now he's playing very solid baseball and we're happy he's injured?

Which player would you rather lose for a month right now, on August 3 - Cabrera or Stubbs?

Cabrera. no guestion Stubbs is struggling at the plate, but he makes up for it in the field, meanwhile Cabrera would have cooled off just like he did earlier in the season and they we have a non hitting poor fielding SS, sorry but the numbers don't lie.

CySeymour
08-03-2010, 12:55 PM
Maybe you havent noticed, but the only thing holding this team back from the playoffs is OFFENSE.

Yet, they lead the league in runs scored.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 12:58 PM
i am happy, yes he was 'hot' since the All Star break, but look at his numbers overall, they are HORRIBLE for a 2 spot hitter. Add to that the fact the man has the range of nothing and we are already better by having Janish at SS and hopefully someone like Hanigan in the 2 spot. Maybe if Dusty would have given him some days off more often this wouldn't have happened, but getting Janish at SS is a good thing.

His range isn't the greatest, but he makes every play he gets to. Overall he has been a more than adequate defensive SS, not great, and not at Janish's level, but he has played above average at SS.

OCab's slash line in the 2 spot is .303/.343/.404 which is hardly horrible for a 2 spot hitter, but actually just fine. His numbers are night and day between hitting in the 2 spot and hitting leadoff. Which he has been a much better hitter in the 2 spot than the leadoff spot his whole career.

It's about what have you done for me lately. Gomes overall numbers on the season look pretty good, but he has done hardly anything for about 2 months now.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 01:02 PM
Cabrera. no guestion Stubbs is struggling at the plate, but he makes up for it in the field, meanwhile Cabrera would have cooled off just like he did earlier in the season and they we have a non hitting poor fielding SS, sorry but the numbers don't lie.

The numbers don't lie eh? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0

What do you take from those numbers, especially when compared to the rest of the MLB?

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 01:05 PM
Cabrera. no guestion Stubbs is struggling at the plate, but he makes up for it in the field, meanwhile Cabrera would have cooled off just like he did earlier in the season and they we have a non hitting poor fielding SS, sorry but the numbers don't lie.

How do you know he would have cooled off? Using his career numbers as a predictor, he would have continued to play solid baseball for the majority of the rest of the season..

Stubbs plays good enough defense to make up for 1-for-37 at the plate? Sorry, nobody plays defense that good.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 01:08 PM
Cabrera has basically been giving the Reds a .600 OPS all season long.

I am aware of that. I just don't get how some people aren't concerned about a potentially long DL stint for Cabrera. It's August and we are in 1st place with a great record and he has played full-time all season. It's not like we have a young stud being blocked for playing time by OC who is gonna come in and put up an .800 OPS, unless Cozart gets called into duty and impresses, but that's still a long shot.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 01:12 PM
I am aware of that. I just don't get how some people aren't concerned about a potentially long DL stint for Cabrera. It's August and we are in 1st place with a great record and he has played full-time all season. It's not like we have a young stud being blocked for playing time by OC who is gonna come in and put up an .800 OPS, unless Cozart gets called into duty and impresses, but that's still a long shot.


No we have Janish who is leaps and bounds better at SS then Orlando is, and if batted 8th will not be that huge of a drop off offensivily. Orlando is old, his age and body are catching up to him, and had Dusty used Janish more at SS throught the past 4 months, you have to wonder if Orlando has that injury. Again another bad move by a bad manager.:thumbdown

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 01:17 PM
No we have Janish who is leaps and bounds better at SS then Orlando is, and if batted 8th will not be that huge of a drop off offensivily. Orlando is old, his age and body are catching up to him, and had Dusty used Janish more at SS throught the past 4 months, you have to wonder if Orlando has that injury. Again another bad move by a bad manager.:thumbdown

Batting 2nd vs. 8th doesn't make a guy a guys stats more acceptable. Some guys perform better at different parts of the lineup, like Stubbs at 7th vs leadoff. But a .600 OPS in the 2 spot vs a .600 OPS in the 8 spot is still a .600 OPS. So far this year the Ramon/Hanigan combo is OPS'ing about .800 in the 8 spot, so Janish would be a huge drop off there.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:21 PM
I am aware of that. I just don't get how some people aren't concerned about a potentially long DL stint for Cabrera. It's August and we are in 1st place with a great record and he has played full-time all season. It's not like we have a young stud being blocked for playing time by OC who is gonna come in and put up an .800 OPS, unless Cozart gets called into duty and impresses, but that's still a long shot.

Reds likely arent going to see a big drop off if there even is going to be one. Janish sucks at the plate, so did Cabrera. The only difference is that Cabrera might hit a couple more homers. Janish is better with the glove.

I'm not sure where the Reds are going to be "missing" Cabreras bat when they basically have been dealing with it and his little better than average glove all season long.

Cabreras season line 453 PA
.260/.302/.339

Janish Career line 455 PA
.216/.303/.311

Both aren't pretty. Janish draws more walks and strikes out a little more. They both have the same LD% basically, Cabrera hits more grounders, janish hits more pop up.

sorry I'm just not seeing the panic that some are seeing. If Janish cant hit to his career line then they have Cozart waiting in the wings. The bar has been set pretty low all season low by Cabrera.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:21 PM
Batting 2nd vs. 8th doesn't make a guy a guys stats more acceptable. Some guys perform better at different parts of the lineup, like Stubbs at 7th vs leadoff. But a .600 OPS in the 2 spot vs a .600 OPS in the 8 spot is still a .600 OPS. So far this year the Ramon/Hanigan combo is OPS'ing about .800 in the 8 spot, so Janish would be a huge drop off there.

But every spot in the lineup doesn't get the same amount PA over the course of a season. So if you have a .600 OPS batter in the 2-hole and an .800 OPS batter in the 8-hole you really should flip them. You would be taking away about 100 PA, over the course of a season, from a .600 OPS hitter and giving them to an .800 OPS hitter.
And that seems like a good idea to me.

malcontent
08-03-2010, 01:28 PM
sorry I'm just not seeing the panic that some are seeing. If Janish cant hit to his career line then they have Cozart waiting in the wings. The bar has been set pretty low all season low by Cabrera.
Agreed.

bgwilly31
08-03-2010, 01:34 PM
Yet, they lead the league in runs scored.

amazing aint it.

bgwilly31
08-03-2010, 01:36 PM
Agreed.

The panic is set because we've seen this before.

Janish gets his shot and the reds go in a drought.

It happened when kep was hurt. And it happened when Hairston got hurt.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 01:37 PM
Why does what a guy hit in April and June matter in August? I'm just trying to wrap my mind completely around this.

I don't understand how you can say, "Well, Cabrera was only batting XXX for the season, so we're not losing anything," while completely ignoring how he was playing and helping this team at the time of his injury.

To me, timing is everything.

arkimadee
08-03-2010, 01:39 PM
if this injury is bad enough, i'd say go after a shortstop in a waiver trade.. i don't know who would be out there but it looks like we will need atleast a backup to yanish that has some big league experience

texasdave
08-03-2010, 01:40 PM
The panic is set because we've seen this before.

Janish gets his shot and the reds go in a drought. It happened when kep was hurt. And it happened when Hairston got hurt.

Paul Janish is the key to the Reds' offense? Who knew?

GIDP
08-03-2010, 01:47 PM
Why does what a guy hit in April and June matter in August? I'm just trying to wrap my mind completely around this.

I don't understand how you can say, "Well, Cabrera was only batting XXX for the season, so we're not losing anything," while completely ignoring how he was playing and helping this team at the time of his injury.

To me, timing is everything.

Cabrera wasnt going to continue to hit .340. He might have ended up hitting around .300 for the month but still we are probably only looking at a .700 OPS bat. If janish hits to his career line with the improved D we probably wont see much of a drop off in production from the SS position.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 01:56 PM
Why does what a guy hit in April and June matter in August? I'm just trying to wrap my mind completely around this.

I don't understand how you can say, "Well, Cabrera was only batting XXX for the season, so we're not losing anything," while completely ignoring how he was playing and helping this team at the time of his injury.

To me, timing is everything.

As you will see if you look at the numbers his began to decline over time because he is older and his body can't take the day to day strain and remain at a top level. He has been hot after getting the All star break off but will again to decline as time marches on. You have to look at his overall performance, not just selected times.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 01:56 PM
Is there any way to quantify just how superior Janish's defense is to Cabrera's? I think Cabrera has been pretty good defensively, personally. The numbers posted earlier in this thread back that up.

brm7675
08-03-2010, 01:57 PM
The panic is set because we've seen this before.

Janish gets his shot and the reds go in a drought.

It happened when kep was hurt. And it happened when Hairston got hurt.

Who is Kep or Hairston and what positions do they play, I don't seem to recall them on our roster this season?

brm7675
08-03-2010, 01:58 PM
Is there any way to quantify just how superior Janish's defense is to Cabrera's? I think Cabrera has been pretty good defensively, personally. The numbers posted earlier in this thread back that up.

Look at his range numbers. Orlando is fine if the ball is hit right at him, as is Rolen, but neither have any kind of range. That is where Janish is better, he gets to things Orlando can't. Sure I can have a great fielding % if everything I get is right at me...:thumbup:

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 01:59 PM
Look at his range numbers. Orlando is fine if the ball is hit right at him, as is Rolen, but neither have any kind of range. That is where Janish is better, he gets to things Orlando can't. Sure I can have a great fielding % if everything I get is right at me...:thumbup:

Show me his range numbers. I don't know what they are or where to find them.

ILoveWilly
08-03-2010, 02:04 PM
Find a way to bring Cozart up. This is eery, it was a few days ago I said if Cabrera got hurt for the whole year and the Reds brought up Cozart, we would be a better team. Now it looks like he won't even get the chance to be brought up because he's not on the 40 man roster.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 02:15 PM
Show me his range numbers. I don't know what they are or where to find them.


NAME SBIZ SPM SRZR
O. Cabrera 245 204 0.833
Paul Janish 22 20 0.909
CBIZ CPM CRZR
O. Cabrera 2755 2242 0.814
Paul Janish 289 249 0.862


The columns are:
1) BIZ-Balls in zone
2) PM-Plays made
3) RZR-Revised Zone Rating.

They are being shown here for the season as well as the career. Janish makes more plays on the balls in his zone than Cabrera. To put Janish' .862 career RZR into context consider this; Jimmy Rollins leads the league for qualified shortstops this year at .861. Rafael Furcal is next at .848. So even though Janish's numbers for the season may be skewed by small sample size, if he plays to his career RZR he will make as many plays on balls in the zone as any shortstop in the league. It seems fairly clear that Janish will make more plays at SS than Cabrera, whether, or how much, that closes the offensive gap is what you have to decide.

I got these numbers from Fangraphs.com.

757690
08-03-2010, 02:24 PM
The panic is set because we've seen this before.

Janish gets his shot and the reds go in a drought.

It happened when kep was hurt. And it happened when Hairston got hurt.

I'm not really sure what you are referring to with the Kep and Hairston injuries. The only extended time that Janish started for the Reds was after Gonzalez was traded last season.

In those 47 games, the Reds went 28-17 and averaged 4.7 runs a game. Granted the Reds added Rolen then too, but in no way can anyone say that the Reds stopped scoring runs or stopped winning games when Janish started for them. In fact it is quite the opposite.

BPhil4
08-03-2010, 02:30 PM
Fays Twitter:
#Reds are calling up Juan Francisco or he's vacating in Pittsburgh. Saw him in the hotel. Hitting .286 overall, .302, 11 HRs, 28 RBI in July

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 02:32 PM
So Miguel Cairo is our backup shortstop.

Maybe they don't think Cabrera will be out long.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:32 PM
The reds sure do love the free swingers.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:32 PM
So Miguel Cairo is our backup shortstop.

Maybe they don't think Cabrera will be out long.

I have a feeling that a back up SS will be called up after Votto is healthy.

arkimadee
08-03-2010, 02:33 PM
The reds sure do love the free swingers.
teach chris dickerson to play shortstop and all is solved!! lol

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 02:34 PM
Dusty talked last night like Votto would only be out another day or two.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 02:34 PM
Fays Twitter:
#Reds are calling up Juan Francisco or he's vacating in Pittsburgh. Saw him in the hotel. Hitting .286 overall, .302, 11 HRs, 28 RBI in July

Everybody on that Louisville club swung a hot bat in July. You could hardly go wrong using their July numbers.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 02:35 PM
teach chris dickerson to play shortstop and all is solved!! lol

Unfortunately, he would likely get hurt the first time he was taken out at second trying to turn a double play. :)

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:39 PM
Dusty talked last night like Votto would only be out another day or two.

Which could mean anything. They have shown no problem playing a man short for 10 days. So until the day Votto is back its better to assume hes out for the next few games. Anyways. Cairo is now the back up 3rd baseman and the back up first baseman. Janish is now the every day SS. They need a corner infielder since votto is out in case Rolen needs a day.

I can see why Juan is up for a few days and then another infielder coming up to be the back up SS once Votto can play every day again.

CWRed
08-03-2010, 02:39 PM
I'm not really sure what you are referring to with the Kep and Hairston injuries. The only extended time that Janish started for the Reds was after Gonzalez was traded last season.

In those 47 games, the Reds went 28-17 and averaged 4.7 runs a game. Granted the Reds added Rolen then too, but in no way can anyone say that the Reds stopped scoring runs or stopped winning games when Janish started for them. In fact it is quite the opposite.


I love it when perceptions get in the way way of truth. Nice post.:beerme:

757690
08-03-2010, 02:42 PM
Since mid August of last season to today, Paul Janish has this line:

.330/.382/.712

I would think that in a starting role, he would hit something similar, which would actually be better than what Cabrera had been hitting. Add to that the fact that Janish has more range defensively, and I think it is hard to argue that Janish projects to be worse than Cabrera in overall production. In fact, I think one could make a strong argument that he would provide more overall production than Cabrera.

Actually, which his advantage defensively, Janish really just needs to OPS around .635 to be as productive overall than what Cabrera has been so far.

RedsFanInBama
08-03-2010, 02:43 PM
I think Cairo is the starting first baseman now.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:44 PM
Since mid August of last season to today, Paul Janish has this line:

.330/.382/.712

I would think that in a starting role, he would hit something similar, which would actually be better than what Cabrera had been hitting. Add to that the fact that Janish has more range defensively, and I think it is hard to argue that Janish projects to be worse than Cabrera in overall production. In fact, I think one could make a strong argument that he would provide more overall production than Cabrera.

Actually, which his advantage defensively, Janish really just needs to OPS around .635 to be as productive overall than what Cabrera has been so far.
Cabreras OPS on the season has been .641. I really doubt Janish would have to hit .635 to be just as productive. I'm thinking more about .600

757690
08-03-2010, 02:46 PM
Which could mean anything. They have shown no problem playing a man short for 10 days. So until the day Votto is back its better to assume hes out for the next few games. Anyways. Cairo is now the back up 3rd baseman and the back up first baseman. Janish is now the every day SS. They need a corner infielder since votto is out in case Rolen needs a day.

I can see why Juan is up for a few days and then another infielder coming up to be the back up SS once Votto can play every day again.

I believe you called it, although with Alonso. A big bat to replace Votto for his time out, and then a real SS when Votto is healthy.

It makes sense, although it seems to point that Votto might be out longer than expected. And Cairo can play SS for one game if Janish gets hurt, until a real SS is called up. It won't be pretty, but if it happens it's only for a few innings.
The only downside is that for now, there will be no pinch hitting for Janish.

BTW, has Francisco played any 1B?

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 02:47 PM
But every spot in the lineup doesn't get the same amount PA over the course of a season. So if you have a .600 OPS batter in the 2-hole and an .800 OPS batter in the 8-hole you really should flip them. You would be taking away about 100 PA, over the course of a season, from a .600 OPS hitter and giving them to an .800 OPS hitter.
And that seems like a good idea to me.

It's no guarantee those guys OPS .800 in the 2 hole as compared to the 8 hole. The 2 hole seems to have quite a few AB's with nobody on base where Hanigan and Ramon have been up quite a bit with runners on. It's also important to have your 8th hitters get on base at a good clip to get the pitcher up and the lineup turned over.

texasdave
08-03-2010, 02:50 PM
It's no guarantee those guys OPS .800 in the 2 hole as compared to the 8 hole. The 2 hole seems to have quite a few AB's with nobody on base where Hanigan and Ramon have been up quite a bit with runners on. It's also important to have your 8th hitters get on base at a good clip to get the pitcher up and the lineup turned over.

I understand there is no guarantee they would continue to OPS .800. I was speaking more in hypothetical terms since nobody actually knows if it would have an effect or not. All things being equal it is better to have your .800 OPS hitter getting more at-bats than your .600 OPS hitter.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 02:50 PM
Reds likely arent going to see a big drop off if there even is going to be one. Janish sucks at the plate, so did Cabrera. The only difference is that Cabrera might hit a couple more homers. Janish is better with the glove.

I'm not sure where the Reds are going to be "missing" Cabreras bat when they basically have been dealing with it and his little better than average glove all season long.

Cabreras season line 453 PA
.260/.302/.339

Janish Career line 455 PA
.216/.303/.311

Both aren't pretty. Janish draws more walks and strikes out a little more. They both have the same LD% basically, Cabrera hits more grounders, janish hits more pop up.

sorry I'm just not seeing the panic that some are seeing. If Janish cant hit to his career line then they have Cozart waiting in the wings. The bar has been set pretty low all season low by Cabrera.

I am not in a panic. And I understand OC hits a little more, Janish fields it better and there shouldn't be much of a production change. But I am just looking at the old saying "if it ain't broke don't fix it." Overall our production shouldn't change much out of that spot, but it makes me a bit uncomfortable having to change things up. That is all I am really trying to get at.

757690
08-03-2010, 02:51 PM
Cabreras OPS on the season has been .641. I really doubt Janish would have to hit .635 to be just as productive. I'm thinking more about .600

Probably, but Cabrera has been better with the glove lately, so I wasn't giving Janish as big of an advantage defensively as I would have at the beginning of the season.

But yeah, Janish doesn't have to hit much to be more productive than Cabrera.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:52 PM
I believe you called it, although with Alonso. A big bat to replace Votto for his time out, and then a real SS when Votto is healthy.

It makes sense, although it seems to point that Votto might be out longer than expected. And Cairo can play SS for one game if Janish gets hurt, until a real SS is called up. It won't be pretty, but if it happens it's only for a few innings.
The only downside is that for now, there will be no pinch hitting for Janish.

BTW, has Francisco played any 1B?

Yes hes played some first and hes ran around in LF some as well.

Griffey012
08-03-2010, 02:52 PM
I understand there is no guarantee they would continue to OPS .800. I was speaking more in hypothetical terms since nobody actually knows if it would have an effect or not. All things being equal it is better to have your .800 OPS hitter getting more at-bats than your .600 OPS hitter.

Point taken, I definitely agree with that in hypothetical terms.

GIDP
08-03-2010, 02:54 PM
I am not in a panic. And I understand OC hits a little more, Janish fields it better and there shouldn't be much of a production change. But I am just looking at the old saying "if it ain't broke don't fix it." Overall our production shouldn't change much out of that spot, but it makes me a bit uncomfortable having to change things up. That is all I am really trying to get at.

thats fair but its been broke all year, and now its broke really since hes hurt. I dont think you should feel all that uncomfortable since if there is a production loss its goin to be so minimal that it will barely make a difference.

bgwilly31
08-04-2010, 12:00 PM
Reds record since OC's injury 0-1

Janish looked terrible at the plate. :thumbdown

GIDP
08-04-2010, 12:05 PM
Reds record since OC's injury 0-1

Janish looked terrible at the plate. :thumbdown

Compared to Votto sure, compared to Cabrera? No his pop outs just went foul instead of to a middle infielder.

Kingspoint
08-06-2010, 07:09 AM
Reds record since OC's injury 0-1

Janish looked terrible at the plate. :thumbdown

So much for your theory.