PDA

View Full Version : Better run differential than the Cardinals



Pony Boy
08-04-2010, 04:02 PM
All season long, Cardinals fans have been pointing to the relatively low run differential of the Reds to make the argument that the Reds are luckier than they are good. A nose dive in the standings was inevitable they argued.

Well, as of August 3rd look who has the higher run differential:

Cards +70
Reds +74

10xWSChamps
08-05-2010, 12:17 AM
70 vs 74? Seems like arguing that a 4.2ERA pitcher is better then a 4.3ERA pitcher. You're probably right but it's so close it fairly meaningless.

GIDP
08-05-2010, 12:21 AM
70 vs 74? Seems like arguing that a 4.2ERA pitcher is better then a 4.3ERA pitcher. You're probably right but it's so close it fairly meaningless.

The one thing is the Reds have been trending up for a while. Of course seasons are long so they probably are just catching up after the Reds bad pitching start.

Pony Boy
08-05-2010, 10:51 AM
70 vs 74? Seems like arguing that a 4.2ERA pitcher is better then a 4.3ERA pitcher. You're probably right but it's so close it fairly meaningless.

I'm not using it as an argument that the Reds are better than the Cards (although one could make that argument). I just think this is a milestone, because many have used run differential to discredit the Reds chances of keeping up with the Cards especially early in the season.

I think we can say that the Reds are at least the equal of the Cards this season, and maybe a little better.

10xWSChamps
08-05-2010, 07:05 PM
I'm not using it as an argument that the Reds are better than the Cards (although one could make that argument). I just think this is a milestone, because many have used run differential to discredit the Reds chances of keeping up with the Cards especially early in the season.

I think we can say that the Reds are at least the equal of the Cards this season, and maybe a little better.


You could make an argument either way really. We've been going back and forth for the majority of the season. I think the teams are playing pretty equally. Although I do think the Cardinals have an edge in total talent, some slumps and injuries haven't helped us, especially injuries.

Vottomatic
08-05-2010, 07:06 PM
I get it. Cards fans just looking for anything to roast the Reds and in the end they look like hypocrites. Nice.

texasdave
08-05-2010, 07:18 PM
You could make an argument either way really. We've been going back and forth for the majority of the season. I think the teams are playing pretty equally. Although I do think the Cardinals have an edge in total talent, some slumps and injuries haven't helped us, especially injuries.

Sounds to me as if someone is getting their excuses ready.

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 12:58 PM
You could make an argument either way really. We've been going back and forth for the majority of the season. I think the teams are playing pretty equally. Although I do think the Cardinals have an edge in total talent, some slumps and injuries haven't helped us, especially injuries.

Holiday, Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright. 4 superior players.

Rolen, Votto, Cueto, Wood, Phillips. 5 superior players.

We win. :D ;)

TC81190
08-06-2010, 07:07 PM
Holiday, Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright. 4 superior players.

Rolen, Votto, Cueto, Wood, Phillips. 5 superior players.

We win. :D ;)
I'd give them Rasmus though if we're including Wood and Cueto.

bshall2105
08-06-2010, 07:16 PM
I'd give them Rasmus though if we're including Wood and Cueto.

Wood is a bit of a stretch but Cueto is a beast and is very hurt that you compared his ability to that of Colby Rasmus.

TC81190
08-06-2010, 07:26 PM
Wood is a bit of a stretch but Cueto is a beast and is very hurt that you compared his ability to that of Colby Rasmus.
So is Rasmus despite his recent slump.

10xWSChamps
08-06-2010, 07:27 PM
Holiday, Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright. 4 superior players.

Rolen, Votto, Cueto, Wood, Phillips. 5 superior players.

We win. :D ;)

Comparatively to your Reds' list, I would say you have to include Rasmus and Garcia.

Johnny Wood's service time is too limited to label him as a superior player IMO, but if you believe it's not then I think you would have to include Jon Jay of the Cardinals as well.


Sounds to me as if someone is getting their excuses ready.

Injuries are definitely an excuse, but it's still true.


I get it. Cards fans just looking for anything to roast the Reds and in the end they look like hypocrites. Nice.

How am I hypocritical? I don't think I "roast[ed]" the Reds anywhere...

GIDP
08-06-2010, 07:28 PM
I like roasted nuts.

bshall2105
08-06-2010, 07:28 PM
So is Rasmus despite his recent slump.

Rasmus is much < Cueto. No point in arguing though, we can't really compare the two at all.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 07:34 PM
Rasmus is much < Cueto. No point in arguing though, we can't really compare the two at all.

Cueto WAR: 2.4
Rasmus WAR: 2.6

Basically this season they are of equal value. Although Colby has been slipping.

bshall2105
08-06-2010, 07:38 PM
Cueto WAR: 2.4
Rasmus WAR: 2.6

Basically this season they are of equal value. Although Colby has been slipping.
I don't really like that stat. If you asked me if I'd rather have Rasmus or Cueto, I don't think it would even be close. I would pick Cueto in a second.

Magdal
08-06-2010, 07:39 PM
You could make an argument either way really. We've been going back and forth for the majority of the season. I think the teams are playing pretty equally. Although I do think the Cardinals have an edge in total talent, some slumps and injuries haven't helped us, especially injuries.More talent than the Reds? Are you serious? Take AP and JV out of it (a wash) Rolen vs. Miles/Lopez @ 3rd base? Starting pitching is a wash too. But the 4 and 5 starters for the Cards have won only 3 or 4 games in a month and a half!

Shumaker, Ryan and whomever plays 3rd base leads the world in errors. The Cards have NO bench. Mott, their best reliever just went on the DL. Holy heck guys! If the Reds don't win the Central the team must be broken up!

GIDP
08-06-2010, 07:47 PM
I don't really like that stat. If you asked me if I'd rather have Rasmus or Cueto, I don't think it would even be close. I would pick Cueto in a second.

Thats just this year. Rasmus has the chance to be a pretty darn good player, although I dont know if the guy will stick in CF.

Both guys are kinda having break through seasons. Cueto might be on the verge of making a huge step forward. Figuring out how to pitch instead of throw.

10xWSChamps
08-06-2010, 07:55 PM
More talent than the Reds? Are you serious? Take AP and JV out of it (a wash) Rolen vs. Miles/Lopez @ 3rd base? Starting pitching is a wash too. But the 4 and 5 starters for the Cards have won only 3 or 4 games in a month and a half!

Shumaker, Ryan and whomever plays 3rd base leads the world in errors. The Cards have NO bench. Mott, their best reliever just went on the DL. Holy heck guys! If the Reds don't win the Central the team must be broken up!


Magdal I've been meaning to ask you, do you post over at the Cubs' NSBB forum?

Felipe Lopez is the only guy starting at third right now, although I wouldn't be surprised to see Allen Craig start there soon if Lopez can't improve his defense. Except for Freese, the left side of our infield has been pretty damn bad all year.

And no doubt, our 4th/5th starters have been bad as well once Penny/Lohse went down. But with Westbrook here, Lohse making rehab starts currently and Brad Penny supposedly coming back before the year is out (our GM said yesterday, although I am skeptical) the back end of the rotation shouldn't be a problem and could actually turn into a strength again. We had probably the deepest rotation in baseball before the injuries

Motte has been a very good reliever for us this year, but our bullpen depth can handle the loss for the next 2-3 weeks. I would say the Kyle McClellan is our best reliever too.

10xWSChamps
08-06-2010, 08:04 PM
I don't really like that stat. If you asked me if I'd rather have Rasmus or Cueto, I don't think it would even be close. I would pick Cueto in a second.

Sure, because you're a Reds fan ;) Most Cardinals fans would take Rasmus in a second over Cueto as well I'm sure. Their value is very close this year whether you look at WAR or VORP. Rasmus is only 23 (I know, Cueto is only 24) and is having a good year. He has the chance to develop into one of the best CFers in baseball, not only offensively but also defensively, although admittedly his defense isn't as good as it was last year.




Thats just this year. Rasmus has the chance to be a pretty darn good player, although I dont know if the guy will stick in CF.

Both guys are kinda having break through seasons. Cueto might be on the verge of making a huge step forward. Figuring out how to pitch instead of throw.

I don't think either organization would do a straight up trade right now, their potential is just too great at the moment.

bshall2105
08-06-2010, 08:14 PM
Sure, because you're a Reds fan ;) Most Cardinals fans would take Rasmus in a second over Cueto as well I'm sure. Their value is very close this year whether you look at WAR or VORP. Rasmus is only 23 (I know, Cueto is only 24) and is having a good year. He has the chance to develop into one of the best CFers in baseball, not only offensively but also defensively, although admittedly his defense isn't as good as it was last year.





I don't think either organization would do a straight up trade right now, their potential is just too great at the moment.

Trust me I don't believe that because he is on the Reds. I think both will be very good, but I have always liked Cueto. I just can not stand Rasmus' attitude. I don't know if he is arrogant all the time, but when he plays the Reds he just seems to be very cocky. Also those post game comments about Bronson Arroyo a while back were a little irritating as well.

10xWSChamps
08-06-2010, 08:19 PM
Trust me I don't believe that because he is on the Reds. I think both will be very good, but I have always liked Cueto. I just can not stand Rasmus' attitude. I don't know if he is arrogant all the time, but when he plays the Reds he just seems to be very cocky. Also those post game comments about Bronson Arroyo a while back were a little irritating as well.

:confused:

I don't think I've ever heard Colby described as cocky or heard any complaints. Not that I don't believe you, but could you find those comments from Arroyo? i would like to see what he said. If anything, Colby is kind of shy and reserved. He certainly isn't a show-off on the field...

TC81190
08-06-2010, 09:00 PM
Thats just this year. Rasmus has the chance to be a pretty darn good player, although I dont know if the guy will stick in CF.

Both guys are kinda having break through seasons. Cueto might be on the verge of making a huge step forward. Figuring out how to pitch instead of throw.
His consistently declining K rate is a concern though.

bshall2105
08-06-2010, 09:05 PM
His consistently declining K rate is a concern though.

Cueto just changed the way he pitches. He's gone from trying to punch everyone out pitching to the game situation. He also doesn't pitch at max effort all game long hekping go deeper into ball games. The k rate declining just shows that he is learning to become an MLB pitcher and not an MLB thrower IMO.

TC81190
08-06-2010, 09:07 PM
Cueto just changed the way he pitches. He's gone from trying to punch everyone out pitching to the game situation. He also doesn't pitch at max effort all game long hekping go deeper into ball games. The k rate declining just shows that he is learning to become an MLB pitcher and not an MLB thrower IMO.
Maybe, but at the rate Cueto gives up hits, I wish he could have the ability to K a batter when he needs to. I'd feel a lot better saying he's becoming a TOR pitcher of he could up his K rate by another K/9.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 09:37 PM
His consistently declining K rate is a concern though.
Yea its concerning but he has moments where he K's a good chunk of batters and moments where he doesnt at all. Makes me think he actually has a game plan now. He seems to be able to K guys but is trying for quicker outs now. His H/9 has dropped and his HR/9 has been cut in half. Who knows maybe its a little luck based or the defense has helped him a ton, but he also has been increasing his control.

I have a feeling he is trying to go farther into games and thats dropping the K%.

I think we will see it go back up once he harnesses his control completely.

MikeThierry
08-10-2010, 04:48 AM
I'm not a fan of the WAR stat because it seems a bit flawed but that's another thread for another time.

As far as the run differential goes, I see the argument but it can be misleading in my opinion.

If you look at the current RD the Reds have a +86 to the Cardinals +84. However, the Reds have scored 557 runs compared to the Cards 507 Runs. The Reds have allowed 471 Runs to the Cards 423. I just don't think RD is a good measure of how well a pitching staff is doing because a team could give up a ton of runs but score a ton of runs. It really doesn't settle the argument who has a better pitching staff or who is doing better. For example, the Giants have a run differential of +84 but have only given up 408 runs while only scoring 492 runs. I don't know if anyone could make the argument that the Reds have a better overall pitching staff than the Giants. I think the only thing you can tell from RD is if a team is doing well or not. Generally a team with a high RD (I would say above 50) is doing well. Its still not a stat I would use to compare different teams with.

I'm a Cards fan but I would challenge Cards fans "logic" on this topic as well.