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_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 07:30 PM
I'd been considering posting this for a while now, and with Ocab going down and Paul getting the nod as starter, I thought it might be a nice time to clarify things.

I've seen this debated over and over again (most commonly in the game threads) but I've yet to see stats put in front of me that show me why Janish shouldn't be the starter over Cabrera (regardless of the injury). People go back and post his minor league numbers. Or they post his short stints in the bigs when he's getting the occasional spot start. But those stats never seem to take into account that his numbers were lower during those stages because he was rusty due to inactivity. But regardless, last spring training (2009) Dusty suggested to Paul that he work on his upper body strength (most notably his forearms and wrists) as that will help him increase his power at the plate. Not necessarily homeruns (like today...YIPPEE!), but with line drive power. He apparently took that suggestion to heart and Dusty said that he was working on that very thing quite hard last year.

But as we all know, once a player gets a reputation, it tends to stick with them until they destroy that reputation once and for all. Well, Paul's reputation was "all glove, noodle bat". And prior to 2009, that description fit quite well unfortunately. But now let's look at 2009. From the beginning of the season until August 14th he was a bit player. He got the occasional playing time and the occasional spot start as Alex Gonzales was the full time starter until his trade to Boston for Kris Negron and some guy named "Cash". Now while Paul ended up with a paltry stat line of .211/.296/.305/.601, there were signs of improvement. Most notably, his 21 doubles in such limited playing time (256 ab's...168 of those after the Agon deal). I personally attribute a portion of his struggles to him sitting so much during the year. When he did see action, it was defensively and sometimes without a plate appearance at all. But the stats don't lie, he struggled despite the optimistic doubles numbers.

Fast forward to spring training 2010. Paul has spent all off season preparing to be the starter. And in his mind, that means improving his numbers at the plate. More strength training. But then the surprise signing of Orlando Cabrera happens. Paul sees himself blocked by Alex Gonzales version 2.0. Instead of pouting, he works harder. During spring training, Paul got nearly identical opportunities as Cabrera did. In 20 games, he hit .350 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs in 40 at bats. Meanwhile, Cabrera in 20 games, hit .184 with 2 doubles and 0 home runs in 49 at bats. Big advantage to Paul, wouldn't you say? But Cabrera is the starter and Janish is relegated to the bench...again. All of this and we're STILL not even talking about the defensive differences between the two players. Don't worry, we'll get there.

In April 2010, Paul got some limited playing time due to Rolen dealing with the flu and some back problems. The result for the month, .353, 3 doubles and 1 hr in 17 ab's. Most of that coming with him playing at third, not his natural position. But remember, he's not in the lineup because of his BAT. Meanwhile, in April, Orlando gets nearly every start (only 2 games he didn't start) and hits .241 with 3 doubles and 2 homeruns. And lets not forget that he played probably the worst defensive shortstop during that month that the Reds have ever seen. Keppinger & Hairston were GG'ers compared to Cabrera's range early in the season.

In May 2010, Orlando again started every game but 2. Remember, this is a 35 year old shortstop we're talking about here. Rolen, whom everyone wants to get regular rest is...yep, 35. Now that we're starting to warm up a bit temperature-wise, Orlando's starting to get his legs loose and his defense is slowly improving. But just remember who his defensive counterpart is. So in May, Cabrera racks up 114 ab's and hits .289 with 5 doubles and a homerun. Orlando's bat has warmed up along with his legs.

Meanwhile, Paul sits idly on the bench keeping the seat warm. He manages to get 2 starts in the whole month. Two. A whopping 15 at bats. And with that much rust and inactivity...he hits .200. He had a hot bat coming out of ST and in the first few weeks of the season...and he's put to sleep. Oh well. Done is done.

In June, Cabrera doesn't start THREE games. Paul gets 3 starts that month too. Hmmm...I see a pattern. :( Janish's stats for the month plummet. His inactivity is making him extremely rusty at the dish. .083 for the month. Cabrera, well he's getting tons of playing time. He's almost NEVER getting days off and he's almost never pulled late in the game for defensive purposes. And the effects are showing. He also plummets back to earth to the tune of .204 for the month in 108 at bats. Only Phillips has more at bats than cabrera by this time.

July gives us the All Star Break and a rejuvenated Cabrera. But it also gives us some nagging team injuries and increased playing time for Janish. He didn't get many more at bats, but he played much more regularly. Only getting 2 or 3 games off between appearances instead of the regular 7-9 days off. But Paul managed to put together a .368 average and Cabrera did well too with a .298 average. This one month seems to showcase what I've been wanting most of the season. More regular playing time for Janish to keep him sharp at the plate, and more regular rest for Cabrera to keep his legs fresh, his mind sharper, and his bat speed higher.

So here we are with Cabrera down with an injury (Would regular rest have avoided this injury...I have no clue, and I don't want to saddle Dusty with that burden) and we stand thusly.


G AB H R 2B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS

Janish 41 70 21 9 3 3 10 11 .300 .395 .471 .866
Cabrera 102 416 108 51 24 3 25 47 .260 .302 .339 .641The things that jump out at me here are the doubles, homeruns and the bb/k ratio. The bb/k ratio isn't something new for Paul either. He's always had a good eye at the dish. His "pop" seems to have improved and that combined with his already solid discipline makes for solid improvement. But even if it hasn't and it's all just small sample sizes, he still has great plate discipline and makes very consistent contact. He also has some attributes this club is sorely lacking from Cabrera. A player who works the count, who doesn't strike out much, who can draw some walks AND who plays EXTREMELY good defense at such a critical position.

I know some will say that if Janish gets regular playing time his numbers will plummet. Well, I see an opposite outcome. If he sits, his bat slumps. As I'm sure most players' would. But since the spring of 2009, I think we're seeing an improved hitting shortstop in Paul Janish. But the question remains, will the Reds continue to see an "all glove, noodle bat" or give Paul the opportunity he's worked for?

Anyway, I'd love for someone to show me why he's not a good enough hitter for the Reds at a "defense first" position.

jojo
08-04-2010, 07:38 PM
Why doesn't he have enough bat for MLB ss? Because his glove isn't good enough for his bat... :cool:

RedsManRick
08-04-2010, 07:40 PM
I believe he does have "enough" bat -- that is, he can be a replacement level bat with .750 OPS upside. He makes frequent contact, good plate discipline and doubles power. His glove will make him a decent, if not quite league average player, even if he doesn't hit up to his potential.

sabometrics
08-04-2010, 07:46 PM
He can be our Adam Everett. Is that a bad thing? No. But if that's how he projects (and I think it is), it is going to mean there could always be someone who could possibly be a better option, be it off FA, or out of the minors.

westofyou
08-04-2010, 07:50 PM
If Janish ever hit .750 that would be amazing.

Of course I don't think he can

PuffyPig
08-04-2010, 07:50 PM
Many, many posters have said this all year.

We expect Janish's stats to fall somewhat, but considering Cabrerra's OPS runs about .640, Janish would be a better player with an OPS of .600 and probably quite a bit lower.

mth123
08-04-2010, 08:01 PM
Thank you for the big game Paul and the nice play in a limited role in 2010. That said, Janish Minor league career suggests a .750 OPS is a pipe dream.

AA at age 24 in 327 ABs, - .695
AAA at age 24 in 200 ABs - .601
AAA at Age 25 in 318 Abs - .711

Not sure why we expect anything more than .650 to .675. Below .600 seems a real possibility. Limited exposure is Paul's friend.

As for the defense, the legend may be more than the performance. A fan base that hasn't seen a good defender at SS in a decade may be seeing what it wants to see. I also think that there is a tendency for the media to accentuate the positive. When a kid can't hit much, his average defense becomes plus and above average defense somehow morphs into super when he's being publicly decscribed. At least he has the defense to morph and we aren't hearing about his scrapiness and hustle.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:02 PM
If Janish ever hit .750 that would be amazing.

Of course I don't think he can

5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

And I agree with Puffy. Even if he doesn't reach this .750 ops (and I have no clue why it's important for it to be that specific number), his glove MORE than validates a lower ops. And I don't see it as a stretch to say that the lower ops will still be higher than Cabrera's.

Taking the Cabrera injury out of the equation, I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be Orlando filling the role of back up infielder and veteran pinch hitter.

Mario-Rijo
08-04-2010, 08:07 PM
There is only one way to find out, here is his opportunity. I said long ago that I thought he could fashion himself into a good enough hitter because he has good plate discipline, good selectivity, good contact skills and flat understands what he needs to do in any given PA. However I started changing my tune when I saw his incredible lack of strength, this was after he had improved it. Has he improved it more? Perhaps but I am not gonna believe it until I see it over a good stretch.

mth123
08-04-2010, 08:07 PM
5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

And I agree with Puffy. Even if he doesn't reach this .750 ops (and I have no clue why it's important for it to be that specific number), his glove MORE than validates a lower ops. And I don't see it as a stretch to say that the lower ops will still be higher than Cabrera's.

Taking the Cabrera injury out of the equation, I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be Orlando filling the role of back up infielder and veteran pinch hitter.

He didn't approach that at the higher levels. His A Ball numbers at age 23 skew the totals. Using overall minor league numbers is about the easiest way tp distort things or at least see what you want to see. That .733 for 5 seasons is about as valid as the phases of the moon or the way he wears his socks.

jojo
08-04-2010, 08:08 PM
If Janish could OPS .750 he'd be a top 5 offensive shortstop this season (based upon players with at least 400 PAs thus far). Since it's likely that he'd be something like at least a +10 glove that would mean he'd be a 4 WAR player over 600 PAs.

Are we really at a place where that seems possible?

OnBaseMachine
08-04-2010, 08:10 PM
If Janish could OPS .750 he'd be a top 5 offensive shortstop this season (based upon players with at least 400 PAs thus far). Since it's likely that he'd be something like at least a +10 glove that would mean he'd be a 4 WAR player over 600 PAs.

Are we really at a place where that seems possible?

.750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?

mth123
08-04-2010, 08:12 PM
.750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?

If you even believe is UZR, how do we really know he's a +10 glove? He hasn't really accumulated enough PT for any defensive numbers to be valid. Check back in 3 years.

OnBaseMachine
08-04-2010, 08:13 PM
If you even believe is UZR, how do we really know he's a +10 glove? He hasn't really accumulated enough PT for any defensive numbers to be valid. Check back in 3 years.

My eyes tell me he's a well above average defender.

jojo
08-04-2010, 08:14 PM
.750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?

As a shortstop, he'd be something like a major league average player...kind of like a Jack Wilson.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:15 PM
Thank you for the big game Paul and the nice play in a limited role in 2010. That said, Janish Minor league career suggests a .750 OPS is a pipe dream.

AA at age 24 in 327 ABs, - .695
AAA at age 24 in 200 ABs - .601
AAA at Age 25 in 318 Abs - .711

Not sure why we expect anything more than .650 to .675. Below .600 seems a real possibility.

Why is it okay to ignore everything prior to age 24? 5 minor league seasons, .733 ops total. But regardless of all that, he's a different player now in terms of strength and development. But since we're considering milb numbers, I'd expect a drop-off from the minors to the bigs. It's expected. But why are we going from a +.700 ops to a low .600 and below? Good lord. So, just for arguments sake, let's split the difference. Let's give him a .650 ops. It's STILL better than Cabrera's AND then we factor in his defense, his ability to work the count, and the effect his glove has on the pitching staff's numbers & workload.


Limited exposure is Paul's friend.

This theory is simply don't understand. It will HELP his bat to not get used? It will help keep him sharp to sit on the bench and only get work in the cage against the BP pitcher? I don't know of ANY hitter who doesn't need regular reps to keep sharp and improve. The only thing limited exposure helps are the stat guys who want to point to his small sample size as a reason he can't improve based on his past performance...however limited.


As for the defense, the legend may be more than the performance. A fan base that hasn't seen a good defender at SS in a decade may be seeing what it wants to see. I also think that there is a tendency for the media to accentuate the positive. When a kid can't hit much, his average defense becomes plus and above average defense somehow morphs into super when he's being publicly decscribed. At least he has the defense to morph and we aren't hearing about his scrapiness and hustle.

Well, I for one don't buy this...but let's say I do for a moment. Even if his glove ISN'T as good as I think it is....it's still better than Cabrera's. Wouldn't you agree with that limited statement? Janish is a better defender at short than Orlando. If so, and he's hitting better....you do the math.

remdog
08-04-2010, 08:18 PM
5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

If it were that simple he would have done it years ago. More likely it's the usual small sample size/hot streak/luck.

And, frankly, I'm not as enamored with Janish's glove as some on here. It's good, not great.

He's what we've got for now. I think that there's a good chance that that will change by Opening Day 2011.

Rem

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:19 PM
There is only one way to find out, here is his opportunity. I said long ago that I thought he could fashion himself into a good enough hitter because he has good plate discipline, good selectivity, good contact skills and flat understands what he needs to do in any given PA. However I started changing my tune when I saw his incredible lack of strength, this was after he had improved it. Has he improved it more? Perhaps but I am not gonna believe it until I see it over a good stretch.

Same situation as last season. We put him to sleep for MONTHS, and then say to him "here's a month or two to show us what you've got". I hope he does well, but a player needs more than a month to prove his worth. A week long slump or a run against good pitchers and he'll be a bust to some because he didn't "grab his opportunity" when it was presented to him.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:25 PM
He didn't approach that at the higher levels. His A Ball numbers at age 23 skew the totals. Using overall minor league numbers is about the easiest way tp distort things or at least see what you want to see. That .733 for 5 seasons is about as valid as the phases of the moon or the way he wears his socks.

AA he was basically a .700 ops.

Went up to AAA and regressed as you'd expect on going up a level.
Following season after he'd adapted to AAA, right back to .700 ops.

So why should we expect him to be a .600 ops bat in the majors? Because of his results in the bigs thus far? If Votto only got to come to the plate ten times a month with a week or two between appearances, he'd be a sucky hitter too.

Mario-Rijo
08-04-2010, 08:26 PM
Same situation as last season. We put him to sleep for MONTHS, and then say to him "here's a month or two to show us what you've got". I hope he does well, but a player needs more than a month to prove his worth. A week long slump or a run against good pitchers and he'll be a bust to some because he didn't "grab his opportunity" when it was presented to him.

While you may be right lets not assume you are, Paul knows he has limited opportunity to change peoples mind about him. Chances are he will get his chance next year as long as he shows improvement over what he did last season.

mth123
08-04-2010, 08:27 PM
Why is it okay to ignore everything prior to age 24? 5 minor league seasons, .733 ops total. But regardless of all that, he's a different player now in terms of strength and development. But since we're considering milb numbers, I'd expect a drop-off from the minors to the bigs. It's expected. But why are we going from a +.700 ops to a low .600 and below? Good lord. So, just for arguments sake, let's split the difference. Let's give him a .650 ops. It's STILL better than Cabrera's AND then we factor in his defense, his ability to work the count, and the effect his glove has on the pitching staff's numbers & workload.



This theory is simply don't understand. It will HELP his bat to not get used? It will help keep him sharp to sit on the bench and only get work in the cage against the BP pitcher? I don't know of ANY hitter who doesn't need regular reps to keep sharp and improve. The only thing limited exposure helps are the stat guys who want to point to his small sample size as a reason he can't improve based on his past performance...however limited.



Well, I for one don't buy this...but let's say I do for a moment. Even if his glove ISN'T as good as I think it is....it's still better than Cabrera's. Wouldn't you agree with that limited statement? Janish is a better defender at short than Orlando. If so, and he's hitting better....you do the math.

Pretty much each level is just running the gauntlet to get to the next level. The Major leagues are so far removed from those lower levels, that they are nearly meaningless. If they were meaningful, he'd have carried it to AA and AAA. Why do we expect him to hit better as a major leaguer than he did at AA or AAA?

Janish is a good glove which IMO is a minimum requirement to play SS. He's not a weak defender by any means, but he's a SS, he's supposed to be good. There are a lot of SS who are just as good. He's better defensively than anyone who has been here since Larkin was in his prime, but he isn't so special that he makes plays nobody else would. Most of the plays he makes are ones most decent SS would make. The bums we've had here for 10 years have skewed our perspective and we think he's doing something exceptional when he really isn't.

nate
08-04-2010, 08:27 PM
5 minor league seasons....733 ops. And he's now stronger and showing more power. Same plate discipline. Current ops...866. He not only "can", he IS.

First of all, I prefer Janish _AT LEAST_ play more.

At the same time, yes...technically, he currently has that OPS but that's like saying Mike Leake is an .818 OPS bat. It's a TINY sample size and not indicative of true skill.

There is a point at which Janish's leather + wood = O-Cab's leather + wood. I couldn't say what that is but I would guess it's in the low .600 OPS range. I bet Jojo could tell us exactly what it is based on O-Cab's current offensive and defensive stats.


And I agree with Puffy. Even if he doesn't reach this .750 ops (and I have no clue why it's important for it to be that specific number), his glove MORE than validates a lower ops.

High five!


And I don't see it as a stretch to say that the lower ops will still be higher than Cabrera's.

Perhaps.


Taking the Cabrera injury out of the equation, I don't see a reason why it shouldn't be Orlando filling the role of back up infielder and veteran pinch hitter.

It's really a Dusty thing. I don't agree with it but that's how he rolls.

VR
08-04-2010, 08:27 PM
Kudos Sir Charles for a nicely articulated post.

I think many would be surprised by the 'average' OpS for NL shortstops...espcially when you remove the two freaks, Ramirez and Furcal.

Rem...what don't you like about his glove? He's as smooth an SS I've seen out there. Decent range, excellent at starting or turning the DP, and a canon for an arm.

The DP he started a month or so ago has to be one of the top plays of the year......but he also makes the routine plays look, well, routine.

westofyou
08-04-2010, 08:29 PM
Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:29 PM
While you may be right lets not assume you are, Paul knows he has limited opportunity to change peoples mind about him. Chances are he will get his chance next year as long as he shows improvement over what he did last season.

This is what worries me. He KNOWS this is his shot to grab the reins. If he presses.....

It just really bothers me that he wasn't given more opportunities earlier in the year when he obviously was still feeling in from spring training and his off season.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:34 PM
Pretty much each level is just running the gauntlet to get to the next level. The Major leagues is so far removed from those lower levels, that they are nearly meaningless. If they were meaningful, he'd have carried it to AA and AAA. Why do we expect him to hit better as a mjor leaguer than he did at AA or AAA?

I don't expect him to hit better in the bigs. I never said he'd be a .750 ops guy. I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy. Once he adapted to a level, he was basically .700...so the bigs he'd be a bit lower if he maintained his physical strength at that age. But he's IMPROVED that aspect. So instead of dropping to...say, .650 ops in MLB, it'd be more like .675 or even .700. But like I said, even that .650 is better than Cabrera (even without considering defense).


Janish is a good glove which IMO is a minimum requirement to play SS. He's not a weak defender by any means, but he's a SS, he's supposed to be good. There are a lot of SS who are just as good. He's better defensively than anyone who has been here since Larkin was in his prime, but he isn't so special that he makes plays nobody else would. Most of the plays he makes are ones most decent SS would make. The bums we've had here for 10 years have skewed our perspective and we think he's doing something exceptional when he really isn't.

The key is that he makes plays that CABRERA doesn't make. Hence, marked improvement. And that's if his glove is average as you basically describe it.

westofyou
08-04-2010, 08:38 PM
I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy.

Yeah it's a real head scratcher.



YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2008 Reds 25 38 80 5 15 2 0 1 1.25 6 7 18 0 0 .188 .250 .270 .520
2009 Reds 26 90 256 36 54 21 0 1 0.39 16 26 40 2 0 .211 .305 .296 .601
TOTALS 128 336 41 69 23 0 2 0.60 22 33 58 2 0 .205 .292 .290 .582
LG AVERAGE 362 49 96 20 2 11 2.99 47 38 71 6 3 .266 .423 .339 .762
POS AVERAGE 360 49 96 18 3 7 1.96 38 31 55 9 3 .268 .393 .328 .721

hebroncougar
08-04-2010, 08:40 PM
I think the consensus was the team offense wouldn't be good enough to carry a light bat at SS. The team offense has been good enough. Hopefully Janish can joing the party, I know I'm rooting for him. It would be nice to see him mash it these last 2 months, solidify himself and take care of a starting SS for next season.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:42 PM
Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

Fair point. But isn't that the case for most hitters? Monster numbers in the low minors and then falling back to earth against the better pitchers? (and no, I'm not saying Paul's numbers were "monster"-like in the low minors). And from what I see, they lowered to the tune of a .700 ops, regressed on the bump to AAA, then returned to the .700 ops again. The big drop to the low .600's was in the smaller sample size...not MORE playing time. Some guys (actually, most do IMO) need regular playing time to stay sharp. Janish seems to be one of them.

And I'm looking at more than today's game. I'm going back to the beginning of last year as the start of his improvement.

nate
08-04-2010, 08:46 PM
Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.

I think, in fairness, those expressing support for Janish in this thread have been doing so long before today's exhibition.

mth123
08-04-2010, 08:47 PM
I don't expect him to hit better in the bigs. I never said he'd be a .750 ops guy. I just don't understand the thinking that he'd be a .600 or lower ops guy. Once he adapted to a level, he was basically .700...so the bigs he'd be a bit lower if he maintained his physical strength at that age. But he's IMPROVED that aspect. So instead of dropping to...say, .650 ops in MLB, it'd be more like .675 or even .700. But like I said, even that .650 is better than Cabrera (even without considering defense).



The key is that he makes plays that CABRERA doesn't make. Hence, marked improvement. And that's if his glove is average as you basically describe it.

I think Cabrera was worn down and injured by a manager who refused to let his understudy play a little more and I think we've seen a couple months of him at his worst. I agree that Janish should have gotten more time earlier, but I think the biggest benefit would have been a better Cabrera. Janish is OK, but he's not a long term solution.

RedsManRick
08-04-2010, 08:49 PM
.750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?

I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:49 PM
Yeah it's a real head scratcher.



YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2008 Reds 25 38 80 5 15 2 0 1 1.25 6 7 18 0 0 .188 .250 .270 .520
2009 Reds 26 90 256 36 54 21 0 1 0.39 16 26 40 2 0 .211 .305 .296 .601
TOTALS 128 336 41 69 23 0 2 0.60 22 33 58 2 0 .205 .292 .290 .582
LG AVERAGE 362 49 96 20 2 11 2.99 47 38 71 6 3 .266 .423 .339 .762
POS AVERAGE 360 49 96 18 3 7 1.96 38 31 55 9 3 .268 .393 .328 .721



You've got to look deeper than the final season totals. Half of those ab's in 2009 were so sporadic that you can't take anything away from them looking forward. As a golfer, I shoot in the high 90's low 100's. Because I play once or twice a year. When I was playing regularly (few times a month, which is a lot for me), I was in the mid to low 80's. Repetition makes a HUGE difference as does regularity. Paul's gotten little of that. A month long run last year. If he struggles for the month, his "season" totals are shot to hell.

The fact that Paul tends to struggle when he's not used regularly tells me that he won't make a very good pinch hitter over his career. Doesn't tell me anything about what he'll be like playing everyday though.

VR
08-04-2010, 08:50 PM
What's his combined OpS between 2009 and 2010?

What is the NL average OpS for SS?

nate
08-04-2010, 08:55 PM
Yeah it's a real head scratcher.



YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2008 Reds 25 38 80 5 15 2 0 1 1.25 6 7 18 0 0 .188 .250 .270 .520
2009 Reds 26 90 256 36 54 21 0 1 0.39 16 26 40 2 0 .211 .305 .296 .601
TOTALS 128 336 41 69 23 0 2 0.60 22 33 58 2 0 .205 .292 .290 .582
LG AVERAGE 362 49 96 20 2 11 2.99 47 38 71 6 3 .266 .423 .339 .762
POS AVERAGE 360 49 96 18 3 7 1.96 38 31 55 9 3 .268 .393 .328 .721


Why doesn't this year count?



Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2008 25 CIN NL 38 89 80 5 15 2 0 1 6 0 0 7 18 .188 .270 .250 .520 37 20 2 2 0 0 0 6
2009 26 CIN NL 90 292 256 36 54 21 0 1 16 2 0 26 40 .211 .296 .305 .601 59 78 8 5 5 0 1 6/51
2010 27 CIN NL 40 78 67 8 18 3 0 2 9 0 2 9 11 .269 .364 .403 .767 105 27 0 1 1 0 1 6/54
3 Seasons 168 459 403 49 87 26 0 4 31 2 2 42 69 .216 .302 .310 .613 62 125 10 8 6 0 2
162 Game Avg. 162 443 389 47 84 25 0 4 30 2 2 41 67 .216 .302 .310 .613 62 121 10 8 6 0 2


No, not awesome but compare Janish's line to O-Cab's line this year:




Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards
2010 35 CIN NL 102 453 416 51 108 24 0 3 37 11 3 25 47 .260 .302 .339 .641 71 141 11 3 3 6 0 *6


The question is, is .028, worse glove and a heady blend of vetty herbs and spices worth $4mm?

_Sir_Charles_
08-04-2010, 08:58 PM
I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.


Gotta update that stat line. :O) He's hitting .300/ .395/ .471 now.

Oh yeah....and I agree. He's showing more power the past 2 years, and he's still a nice contact hitter. Thus...improvement.

TRF
08-04-2010, 09:03 PM
If it were that simple he would have done it years ago. More likely it's the usual small sample size/hot streak/luck.

And, frankly, I'm not as enamored with Janish's glove as some on here. It's good, not great.

He's what we've got for now. I think that there's a good chance that that will change by Opening Day 2011.

Rem
Ryan Ludwig says hi. Some guys develop late. Some never do. Which one is Janish?


Using the low minor numbers to boost a 24 year old can be a mistake of Jeff Jones proportion. The fact is the more advanced the pitching has gotten the lower Janish's numbers have gotten with regular playing time.

215 trips to the plate last year was enough for some, evidently a good game against the Pirates means more to some than others.
His sample is small enough right now that good and bad days have wild effects on his OPS. So that's true enough. But its been more than 1 good game.

Yeah it's a real head scratcher.



YEAR TEAM AGE G AB R H 2B 3B HR HR% RBI BB SO SB CS AVG SLG OBA OPS
2008 Reds 25 38 80 5 15 2 0 1 1.25 6 7 18 0 0 .188 .250 .270 .520
2009 Reds 26 90 256 36 54 21 0 1 0.39 16 26 40 2 0 .211 .305 .296 .601
TOTALS 128 336 41 69 23 0 2 0.60 22 33 58 2 0 .205 .292 .290 .582
LG AVERAGE 362 49 96 20 2 11 2.99 47 38 71 6 3 .266 .423 .339 .762
POS AVERAGE 360 49 96 18 3 7 1.96 38 31 55 9 3 .268 .393 .328 .721


And his past performance in the high minors and as a Red last year still don't take into account the premise that Janish HAS gotten stronger. Look deeper at his numbers. All of them. His OBP is almost always 80-100 points higher than his BA. That indicates some plate discipline. His problem is he doesn't hit enough singles. 2006-2009 20+ doubles a year. That isn't an accident, that's a trend. So take his improved strength into account. If he is stronger, dribblers might start shooting through. More singles. He's got the frame to hit the ball harder.

If Janish can hit .250+ for the rest of the season Cabrera is an afterthought. If he hits .250+ he'll OBP .340. His history says he has better plate discipline than Phillips.

He needs more singles. That's it.

sabometrics
08-04-2010, 09:13 PM
.750 OPS for Janish is unrealistic but .650 isn't out of the question. Where would a .650 OPS and +10 glove put him WAR wise?

Adam Everett did this for 4 years basically from 2003-2006. He averaged just over 2.1 WAR per year. Not spectacular, but very useful to a lot of teams. Everett's 2006 is pretty outlandish though. His value came entirely from his glove that year as he was +25. 2003-2005 are very realistic comps to what Janish can provide over the next few years if he got a similar amount of ABs.

RedsManRick
08-04-2010, 09:38 PM
I think Nick Punto is another decent comp. Again, nothing to write home about, but something nearing league average. Certainly better than paying millions for less than that.

Spitball
08-04-2010, 10:04 PM
Adam Everett did this for 4 years basically from 2003-2006. He averaged just over 2.1 WAR per year. Not spectacular, but very useful to a lot of teams. Everett's 2006 is pretty outlandish though. His value came entirely from his glove that year as he was +25. 2003-2005 are very realistic comps to what Janish can provide over the next few years if he got a similar amount of ABs.

And Everett was on some very successful teams from 2003 to 2006.

Has anyone noticed the other two (East and West) NL leaders have Alex Gonzalez and Jerry Hairston, Jr. currently as their starting shortstops.

TheNext44
08-04-2010, 10:25 PM
I don't think .280/.360/.390 is unrealistic. Optimistic, sure. But not unrealistic. The guy makes a lot of contact and works a fair number of walks. Maintain a decent BABIP and make a lot of decent contact and you're going to hit for a decent average. His career LD% at the major league level is north of 20%.

The question is whether or not he can sustain a reasonable BABIP. His 2008 and 2009 were marred by a .230 and .247 BABIP respectively despite healthy line drive rates. I appreciate that he doesn't quite sting the ball the way some guys do, but I don't see why we should expect him to vary so significantly from the rest of baseball. This year his BABIP is at .297 and lo and behold he's hitting .269/.364/.403. As for the increase in power (ISO), he's 28 -- this is when guys tend to be entering their power peak.

I wouldn't exactly put money on him sustaining his current .327 wOBA (league average is around .330), but the idea that this is fundamentally unsustainable based on his skill set simply doesn't make sense to me.

It's only around 250 PA's, but since he took over for Gonzalez last year, Janish has very close to a .750 OPS.

He may not sustain that, but just watching him hit this year, it's really hard to conclude that he has not improved as a hitter from when he came up. The question is by how much.

SMcGavin
08-04-2010, 10:32 PM
.750 OPS is an absurd target for Janish. That doesn't mean he's not better (or as good) than Cabrera though.

RedsManRick
08-04-2010, 10:46 PM
.750 OPS is an absurd target for Janish. That doesn't mean he's not better (or as good) than Cabrera though.

I'm just curious, what aspects of his performance so far this year do you think are unsustainable? Contact rate? Power? Walks? Batted ball results?

Again, I'm not arguing that he will sustain all of those, but I don't see the absurdity in suggesting it's a legitimate possibility.

cincrazy
08-04-2010, 10:48 PM
For all the argument about Janish's ceiling, here is all that matters: Janish > Orlando Cabrera. Janish helps this team more offensively and defensively than Cabrera at this point in their respective careers.

NDRed
08-04-2010, 11:22 PM
For all the argument about Janish's ceiling, here is all that matters: Janish > Orlando Cabrera. Janish helps this team more offensively and defensively than Cabrera at this point in their respective careers.

And that is certainly sustainable.

SMcGavin
08-04-2010, 11:48 PM
I'm just curious, what aspects of his performance so far this year do you think are unsustainable? Contact rate? Power? Walks? Batted ball results?

Again, I'm not arguing that he will sustain all of those, but I don't see the absurdity in suggesting it's a legitimate possibility.

You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.

VR
08-04-2010, 11:58 PM
You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.

I guess it's not a possibility for Votto to OpS 1.030 this year, and Brandon Phillips has no business being an .800 OpS guy after the way his career started.
:)
Possibility is the question, not probability.
(also, I'm not sure why 2010 stats are just thrown aside?)

RedsManRick
08-05-2010, 12:14 AM
You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.

I'm not sure if you read what I wrote. I never claimed he "has now become" a .750 OPS bat. I've stated that it's not "absurd" to suggest that it's possible. There's a BIG difference there.

In any event, his defense is such that even with a .650 OPS, he represents an equal or better option than Caberra. Let's all hope he continues to hit well and that Cozart can translate his AAA success to the majors in 2011.

GOYA
08-05-2010, 12:15 AM
I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2010, 12:25 AM
I think it's unlikely over a full season that Janish would achieve being a .750 OPS bat. However, I do think being a .700 OPS bat is reasonable and with his glove, that would be above league average.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 01:00 AM
I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.
Statistic are a result of the baseball played, it's not a separate entity in any way at all, it's just a picture that like a photograph is not the exact rendering of a moment, but a recording of one.

WVRedsFan
08-05-2010, 01:01 AM
Bat him 8th and hope for the best. His glove will be strong and his hitting is a bonus. Is he better than OCab? No. Better fielder, for sure (and OCab isn't that bad), but OCab just seem to make that big hit more often than not. Once again, it's an old guy thing. I observe and what I see is a guy who gets the big hit more often, but that may be perception. If it had been me, I would have rested OCab more and given Paul some playing time. I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!

OnBaseMachine
08-05-2010, 01:03 AM
I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!

Which is basically what Cabrera has been this season: .260 BA/.302 OBP.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 01:03 AM
Why doesn't this year count?



Because the software I use is year to year.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 01:26 AM
You've got to look deeper than the final season totals. Half of those ab's in 2009 were so sporadic that you can't take anything away from them looking forward. As a golfer, I shoot in the high 90's low 100's. Because I play once or twice a year. When I was playing regularly (few times a month, which is a lot for me), I was in the mid to low 80's. Repetition makes a HUGE difference as does regularity. Paul's gotten little of that. A month long run last year. If he struggles for the month, his "season" totals are shot to hell.

The fact that Paul tends to struggle when he's not used regularly tells me that he won't make a very good pinch hitter over his career. Doesn't tell me anything about what he'll be like playing everyday though.

From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130&year=2009

There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.

GOYA
08-05-2010, 01:50 AM
Statistic are a result of the baseball played, it's not a separate entity in any way at all, it's just a picture that like a photograph is not the exact rendering of a moment, but a recording of one.

Not in the hands of some here. Otherwise, the present day Janish would considered a .300/.395/.471 hitter. Because those numbers are a result of the baseball he has played this season. (the photograph) There is emphasis on predicting the future. There is a wringing of hands if there is an aberration from the "norm".

It is August and the Reds are leading the division. Janish IS our SS. What he hit 3 years ago isn't going to change that. I expect him to play his butt off. That's the future I care about.

remdog
08-05-2010, 02:00 AM
Rem...what don't you like about his glove? He's as smooth an SS I've seen out there. Decent range, excellent at starting or turning the DP, and a canon for an arm.

It's not that I don't think he has a good glove, I just don't think it is as high a caliber as some on this board think. As you said, he has decent range (and probably better than OCab as his stage in his career) but it's not going to set any standards. And, personally, as far as his arm goes, I think it's pretty good but, once again, it doesn't get rave notices from my observations.

We don't really disagree except to the degree of his play.

For me, I think that the SS position should, ideally, be manned by the best all-around player on the field and Janish is clearly not that. Neither is Cabrera. But, as long as Dusty is managing the team, he will go with the known commodity. More importantly, I think Walt will be focused on upgrading SS in the off season. I don't really see Janish in his plans unless he has no other choice. And, frankly, I agree with that.

I'd love to believe that Cozart is the answer but I've yet to see him play and the numbers don't exactly jump out.

Rem

Ron Madden
08-05-2010, 04:01 AM
From everything I've seen so far I love the defense Janish provides. I honestly believe the Reds would be a better team with Janish starting over Cabrera at SS. Neither one of them will hit like Larkin but I'd love to see Janish get to play everyday for the remainder of the season, just to see what he could do.

TheNext44
08-05-2010, 05:06 AM
From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130&year=2009

There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.

During that time when he was getting regular AB's on a daily basis, his OPS was over 100 points higher than before when he wasn't. I doubt it was because of Sir_Charles' golf swing, but I do think it shows that Janish, like most everyone else, is better when he plays everyday. ;)

PuffyPig
08-05-2010, 06:50 AM
I think he's a .250 hitter with a sub .300 OBP. Prove me wrong, Janish!

If he hits .250, he'll OBA over .300.

Topcat
08-05-2010, 07:00 AM
Carlton Fisk and many other players have blossomed in the majors. Better coaching, and food and accommodations along with higher $$$$ cheques cashed can make statistics in minors mean jack chat in the big picture.

I agree with the projection barometer but it does not apply to every player brought up. If that was the case i would have determined Dickerson as nothing at all. When in truth he could be the 25 th man on any MLB team.

SMcGavin
08-05-2010, 07:51 AM
I'm not sure if you read what I wrote. I never claimed he "has now become" a .750 OPS bat. I've stated that it's not "absurd" to suggest that it's possible. There's a BIG difference there.

In any event, his defense is such that even with a .650 OPS, he represents an equal or better option than Caberra. Let's all hope he continues to hit well and that Cozart can translate his AAA success to the majors in 2011.

Right... which is why I asked, do you truly think it's a legitimate possibility that Janish has now become that .750 OPS player? I didn't accuse you of making some proclamation about his future. You think it's possible Janish's numbers this year are due to a true increase in skill to the .750 level, I think that is extremely unlikely.

We're in full agreement on paragraph #2.

nate
08-05-2010, 08:45 AM
You truly think it's a legitimate possibility that a player who's last four seasons have been this:

AA .245/.356/.330 - .686
AAA .240/.306/.360 - .666
MLB .205/.290/.292 - .582

Has now become a .750 OPS every day player in the majors? It is going to take more than 80+ PAs to convince me of that, regardless of how the peripherals from those 80 PAs look.

Why didn't you include this year's numbers (where he has nearly as many PAs as his first call-up) in his MLB totals?

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 09:29 AM
I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Past performance doesn't mean that much if you change something fundamental about yourself. The here and now matters. And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.

The point of this thread was for someone to show me some numbers that prove that he's NOT the better option, because I certainly don't see it.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 09:34 AM
From 8-14 until 10-4 in 2009 Janish compiled 74% of his season ab's, playing in 48 games, every game of the season from 8-14, 29% of the teams season.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130&year=2009 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130&year=2009)

There is not much sporadic about that, and has absolutely nothing to do with your golf game.

I'm not disagreeing with that. But the other 71% of the season was EXTREMELY sporadic. As this season has been too. That final month and a half has been his only real consistent playing time in the majors. And unfortunately for Paul, he struggled during it. Was it because he was off for so long prior to those 48 days? Who knows. But rarely do people look beyond the final numbers for the whole season. And those simply don't do some players justice because of how they were used/mis-used.

Dickerson's in a similar boat, only in his one lengthy stint of regular play, he did well. So his numbers are taken to the other extreme. In reality, they're both somewhere in the middle. Which in Janish's case, makes him a better option than Cabrera for now and in the future IMO.

And I regret using my golf analogy. :O) I'm a scratch golfer...I swear! *blushes*

remdog
08-05-2010, 09:41 AM
And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.

There's the actual point. It's YOUR opinion. No one is saying that you're not entitled to it...but, by definition, then you have to allow others to have a different opinion if they so choose.

We'll see what happens in over the next few weeks and in 2011. That will probably pretty much tell the story for Janish with the Reds.

Rem

bucksfan2
08-05-2010, 09:44 AM
I'm perfectly content to sit back and see how Janish does with this opportunity. At the end of the season, we'll see how he did. Of course, for some of you, his performance this season is meaningless because it's going to be a small sample size. It seems that statistics overshadow baseball for some folks here.

I think it is pretty telling that Walt went out and got OCab right before the season started. And I also think its pretty telling that Dusty kept writing OCab's name in the lineup day after day. I also haven't heard any Janish > OCab with the exception of here on RZ and Bill James throwing a mention of it earlier this season. It appears like most people associated with baseball felt that OCab was a much better option than Janish.

Last season when Janish was given substantial playing time at the end of the season he did nothing with it. It forced the Reds hands to go out and get a SS because they couldn't rely on Janish to be the everyday SS. He is getting his chance now with reports of Cabrera being out anywhere from 15 days to 6 weeks. If he doesn't take the job and run with it then he more than likely won't have a future as a starting SS. And to be honest I don't have a problem with it. If your a young MLB player you need to take advantage of your playing time.

FWIW I don't think Janish will ever hit enough to be a full time starting SS. I also think his defense here is a tad bit over rated.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 09:49 AM
There's the actual point. It's YOUR opinion. No one is saying that you're not entitled to it...but, by definition, then you have to allow others to have a different opinion if they so choose.

We'll see what happens in over the next few weeks and in 2011. That will probably pretty much tell the story for Janish with the Reds.

Rem

Very true. But many on here are stating that based on the numbers Janish isn't good enough to be the starter. I was wanting numbers to back that up.

And I do allow others their viewpoints and opinions. I've never said someone else's view was simply wrong. I've said I disagree, but I certainly know that my opinion is FAR from infallible. Heck, it's rarely even listened to. Just ask my wife. *grin*

VR
08-05-2010, 09:53 AM
Not sure there is a field general in Janish, and that isn't the end of the world, but it is a very common trait for SS. I'm certain that's why Dusty chose OCab (not just the V word)

remdog
08-05-2010, 09:58 AM
Just ask my wife. *grin*

Thanks for the offer but she might start telling me about your golf swing. :)

Rem

jojo
08-05-2010, 09:59 AM
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner. Past performance doesn't mean that much if you change something fundamental about yourself. The here and now matters. And regardless of the numbers, Janish helps this team more than Cabrera does when healthy IMO.

The point of this thread was for someone to show me some numbers that prove that he's NOT the better option, because I certainly don't see it.

But that's a key question that shouldn't be begged. Has Janish really fundamentally changed something about himself that should dramatically impact his projections?

He put up some good numbers as a 23 year old in A ball but since then, his offense has tracked down as he has climbed levels.

I would be skeptical of a ceiling defined by an OPS in the 700s

TRF
08-05-2010, 09:59 AM
And, personally, as far as his arm goes, I think it's pretty good but, once again, it doesn't get rave notices from my observations.

We don't really disagree except to the degree of his play.

For me, I think that the SS position should, ideally, be manned by the best all-around player on the field and Janish is clearly not that. Neither is Cabrera. But, as long as Dusty is managing the team, he will go with the known commodity. More importantly, I think Walt will be focused on upgrading SS in the off season. I don't really see Janish in his plans unless he has no other choice. And, frankly, I agree with that.

I'd love to believe that Cozart is the answer but I've yet to see him play and the numbers don't exactly jump out.

Rem

IIRC Janish was also a pitcher in high school that used to hit 90+ on the gun. He's probably got one of the better arms at SS.

Here is the thing I have noticed about Dusty. Some of his in game moves are... puzzling. But as a manager of people, he's top notch, maybe one of the best in the game today. He finds ways to coax every last ounce of production from his players, and recognizes when they can or can't do something. His "vet rep" is really unwarranted. If he has talented youngsters, he plays them. And remember, who is on the 25 man roster isn't entirely up to him. He made the move to drop Stubbs lower in the order, and has now replaced him with Heisey. Heisey and not Nix, the veteran. Yes, he gives a lot of respect to Cabrera, but Cabrera has probably performed exactly to Dusty's expectations. And we can't discount the effect of Cabrera on Phillips either. I think Janish should be the starter from today forward, I think it is time to see if he's the guy or not. I'm not ignoring his past results, I'm just not ignoring that he may have turned a corner.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-05-2010, 10:07 AM
I think it is pretty telling that Walt went out and got OCab right before the season started. And I also think its pretty telling that Dusty kept writing OCab's name in the lineup day after day.

And those two did the same with Wily Taveras.

Not quite comparing WT with OC, but just saying. It might be telling, but it doesn't mean it's right.

From what I've seen out of Cozart in AAA (and his entire pro career) and with Janish improving with the stick, I want no part of OC eating up salary and making outs (with limited range on top of that) in 2011.

nate
08-05-2010, 10:09 AM
Very true. But many on here are stating that based on the numbers Janish isn't good enough to be the starter. I was wanting numbers to back that up.

Although I agree that Janish should play more, I very much disagree that the offensive numbers to back up the fact he hasn't been good enough to start haven't been shown. He hasn't been a good hitter, 80-ish nice PAs this year notwithstanding. I don't think it's fair or conversational to even imply that those opposed to the idea haven't shown their work. They have. He's not a good hitter.

That being said, O-Cab and his season wOBA of .289 compared to Janish's career wOBA of .284 leads me to conclude that the former hasn't produced better with the bat than Janish's likely production had he been given the chance.

He is, however, an excellent defender, perhaps once of the best in the league and this is the biggest reason for him to see more playing time. Surely, Janish's glove more than makes up for .005 points of wOBA.

Quite honestly, I think the Reds really jerked him around in the offseason as it seems he did everything he could to make it as the starting SS. With O-Cab on the DL, Janish will have a very limited window to prove himself.

Always Red
08-05-2010, 10:23 AM
... Has Janish really fundamentally changed something about himself that should dramatically impact his projections?


FWIW, I do recall Dusty saying in ST that Janish had really improved his arm strength, particularly in his forearms, as Dusty felt that was his hitting weakness last year- that he was being overpowered.

Mario-Rijo
08-05-2010, 10:38 AM
FWIW, I do recall Dusty saying in ST that Janish had really improved his arm strength, particularly in his forearms, as Dusty felt that was his hitting weakness last year- that he was being overpowered.

Yeah he said that the year before, so if he said it again this past ST it's kinda telling.

TRF
08-05-2010, 10:46 AM
Although I agree that Janish should play more, I very much disagree that the offensive numbers to back up the fact he hasn't been good enough to start haven't been shown. He hasn't been a good hitter, 80-ish nice PAs this year notwithstanding. I don't think it's fair or conversational to even imply that those opposed to the idea haven't shown their work. They have. He's not a good hitter.

A lot has been shown, pretty accurately that Janish has not been a good hitter in his professional career.

No one is saying why though.

2006-2009 as a pro, 4 levels of baseball produced the following:

2006 - 24 doubles.
2007 - 29 doubles.
2008 - 22 doubles.
2009 - 21 doubles.

That is a trend. More numbers...

2006 - 46 BB's 448 AB's
2007 - 64 BB's 523 AB's
2008 - 33 BB's 398 AB's
2009 - 26 BB's 256 AB's

Easy enough to say he's a fair bet for 60+ BB's if he gets over 500 AB's That's pretty solid. More numbers...

2006 - 55 K's 448 AB's
2007 - 85 K's523 AB's
2008 - 89 K's 398 AB's
2009 - 40 K's 256 AB's

The K's certainly increased as he moved up.

The problem with his OPS seems to be SLG. And I'm not talking HR's here, I'm talking singles. If over 500 PA's Janish can garner 150+ hits, then his SLG will rise a bit, but his OBP will too. His walk rate is more than acceptable.

We have all read the articles about his strength, off season workouts to increase his wrist strength etc. Did you know that physically he's about the exact same size as Derek Jeter? Probably not nearly as strong as Jeter though. I'm NOT saying he will suddenly become Derek Jeter just becaus he's doing wrist exercises. I just found it interesting how similar they are physically.

Some guys do develop late. Some need some life coaching. Janish could be a late bloomer, and give the Reds solid production for 4-5 years. He could regress too. It's an interesting time to find out though.

Puffy
08-05-2010, 10:58 AM
Very true. But many on here are stating that based on the numbers Janish isn't good enough to be the starter. I was wanting numbers to back that up.



And people have showed you numbers to back this up - ages 23,24, 25, 26. You don't accept those numbers though and would rather rely on 80 at bats this year, P90x over the winter and his low minor league numbers to trump all.

The real answer is no one in the Reds brass felt comfortable with Janish as starting shortshop all winter. They saw the numbers we saw, they saw him play everyday, they talked to managers, coaches, minor league instructors, et al and it was those guys who helped form the Reds brass thinking. Could it have been wrong - sure. But its gonna take more than 80 abs, yoga and low minors numbers to convince us who doubt him.

Puffy
08-05-2010, 11:02 AM
2006 - 46 BB's 448 AB's
2007 - 64 BB's 523 AB's
2008 - 33 BB's 398 AB's
2009 - 26 BB's 256 AB's

Easy enough to say he's a fair bet for 60+ BB's if he gets over 500 AB's That's pretty solid. More numbers...



Wait, TRF, weren't you the LEADER of the Drew Stubbs walk numbers won't carry to the majors bandwagon? And if great field, light stick Stubbs walk rate wouldn't carry then why are you now arguing the converse with regards to great field, light hit Paul Janish????

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 11:20 AM
And people have showed you numbers to back this up - ages 23,24, 25, 26. You don't accept those numbers though and would rather rely on 80 at bats this year, P90x over the winter and his low minor league numbers to trump all.

The real answer is no one in the Reds brass felt comfortable with Janish as starting shortshop all winter. They saw the numbers we saw, they saw him play everyday, they talked to managers, coaches, minor league instructors, et al and it was those guys who helped form the Reds brass thinking. Could it have been wrong - sure. But its gonna take more than 80 abs, yoga and low minors numbers to convince us who doubt him.

It's not that I don't accept those numbers. They are what they are. What I'm saying is that nobody is looking at them in more depth...like TRF's post above yours is (thanks by the way TRF...this is exactly what I'm looking for). I'm pointing to a specific moment in time (spring training 2009) when Dusty took him aside and had him begin strength training on his forearms and wrists. From that moment on, I've seen improvement. Yes, he slumped during his month 1/2 starters stint after AGon was traded, but I was still seeing improvement. Add to that the fact that his plate discipline remained at a high level, and I don't think the yearly stat totals tell the whole story. I'm not disagreeing with the numbers people have posted, I just don't think they're being put in the right context.

~edit~ He's historically been a pretty good contact hitter, improving his strength won't change that. Long layoffs DID. When he stopped getting regular playing time, he wasn't getting as much contact and he wasn't squareing up as much when he did make contact. In my opinion, that's a factor of not getting enough repetitions...not talent level. So his 2008 numbers, his first half 2009 numbers, and his 2010 numbers up until now aren't reflective of his real talent level. So to sum up, I'm not saying he's going to be a .750 ops hitter, I'm only saying that I think he's a better hitter than his numbers have shown the past 2 seasons based on sifting through the numbers and watching his performance.

Roy Tucker
08-05-2010, 11:23 AM
FWIW, I do recall Dusty saying in ST that Janish had really improved his arm strength, particularly in his forearms, as Dusty felt that was his hitting weakness last year- that he was being overpowered.

I yam what I yam.

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6zR1taPvoaB6vHKogv8rUSylDAADPQ EYLXvrkV_fgSwprm5Y&t=1&usg=__QuXx9d4yno44fKBUPftgw1JIXGc=

Hoosier Red
08-05-2010, 11:48 AM
Some guys do develop late. Some need some life coaching. Janish could be a late bloomer, and give the Reds solid production for 4-5 years. He could regress too. It's an interesting time to find out though.

Am I crazy or was Janish also a pitcher at Rice? The reason I ask is that he probably wasn't treated the same way a typical high level prospect would be. If he figured his best path to the majors was to keep as many options open as possible than he probably didn't develop as a hitter in the same manner that other college players did.
Could explain why his improvements have come at a higher age than most college players.

Always Red
08-05-2010, 11:48 AM
I yam what I yam.

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6zR1taPvoaB6vHKogv8rUSylDAADPQ EYLXvrkV_fgSwprm5Y&t=1&usg=__QuXx9d4yno44fKBUPftgw1JIXGc=

here's some real forearm strength!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_bxEuF4LrxkU/SwNo0HAwHRI/AAAAAAAADwM/DPIMx08J8LA/s1600/scan-1990UpperDeck-GlennBraggs.jpg

VR
08-05-2010, 11:55 AM
I yam what I yam.

http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR6zR1taPvoaB6vHKogv8rUSylDAADPQ EYLXvrkV_fgSwprm5Y&t=1&usg=__QuXx9d4yno44fKBUPftgw1JIXGc=

Here's a great point to consider.

As the steroid era comes to a close......what is the new standard for shortstops?

bucksfan2
08-05-2010, 11:58 AM
Am I crazy or was Janish also a pitcher at Rice? The reason I ask is that he probably wasn't treated the same way a typical high level prospect would be. If he figured his best path to the majors was to keep as many options open as possible than he probably didn't develop as a hitter in the same manner that other college players did.
Could explain why his improvements have come at a higher age than most college players.

The way I understood it was that in Janish's senior year he was going to be converted into a pitcher. I thought that was why he bolted for the draft after his Jr. year.

Roy Tucker
08-05-2010, 12:03 PM
Am I crazy or was Janish also a pitcher at Rice? The reason I ask is that he probably wasn't treated the same way a typical high level prospect would be. If he figured his best path to the majors was to keep as many options open as possible than he probably didn't develop as a hitter in the same manner that other college players did.
Could explain why his improvements have come at a higher age than most college players.

I poked around here at the Rice Univ. baseball site stats and didn't see any pitching records for Janish.

http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/archive/rice-m-basebl-archive.html

Hoosier Red
08-05-2010, 12:05 PM
I poked around here at the Rice Univ. baseball site stats and didn't see any pitching records for Janish.

http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/archive/rice-m-basebl-archive.html

Thanks guys, I appreciate the research. I just remembered some(Princeton maybe) advocated turning him into a pitcher when he wasn't hitting in the low minors. I thought I remembered it being brought up that he had pitched previously.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 12:08 PM
Here's a great point to consider.

As the steroid era comes to a close......what is the new standard for shortstops?

Smaller parks, grass fields coupled with recent history suggest that the paradigm won't be shifting back to the 70's-80's archetype anytime soon.

Always Red
08-05-2010, 12:12 PM
I poked around here at the Rice Univ. baseball site stats and didn't see any pitching records for Janish.

http://www.riceowls.com/sports/m-basebl/archive/rice-m-basebl-archive.html

Even more telling is that he doesn't appear in any of the hitting records, either.

But Lance Berkman and Bubba Crosby are all over it.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 12:18 PM
Even more telling is that he doesn't appear in any of the hitting records, either.

But Lance Berkman and Bubba Crosby are all over it.

It's more telling of what? His skill of hitting when he was there at that age I'd assume. Nothing to do with his skill or abilities now.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 12:21 PM
From Paul's Wiki page


Janish attended Cypress Creek High School where he played shortstop and pitched for the Cougars. He was named to the 2001 Texas 5A All-State team. Janish played for Rice University. In 2002, he played in 61 games at shortstop, had a batting average of .299, and was named to the Western Athletic Conference All-Star team.[1] In 2003, the Rice Owls baseball team won the College World Series as Janish played in 68 games for the team.[1] Janish had his best batting average in 2004 with the Owls, hitting .345, and hitting 9 home runs and 16 doubles as he was named to the WAC All-Star team.[1] During the 2004 MLB Draft, the Cincinnati Reds wanted to get position players where they needed them early due to an apparent lack of depth, and as a result chose Janish with the 138th pick in the 5th round of the draft.[2]

westofyou
08-05-2010, 12:22 PM
It's more telling of what? His skill of hitting when he was there at that age I'd assume. Nothing to do with his skill or abilities now.

Actually minor league numbers have been correlated to MLB success numerous times. While there are outliers let's not try and pretend that the subject has never been touched, nor that Janish's numbers somehow place him in the outliers bucket.

VR
08-05-2010, 12:44 PM
Smaller parks, grass fields coupled with recent history suggest that the paradigm won't be shifting back to the 70's-80's archetype anytime soon.

Good points, but I think the days of middle infielders with 19" necks coming out of Central and South Amercia are dwindling quickly.

I think Ramirez, Uribe and Furcal were juicers. (just an opinion). The reality currently....OCab is an average hitting NL shortstop.

If Janish is anywhere close to .640....it's a huge upgrade, and frees up some serious $.

thatcoolguy_22
08-05-2010, 12:47 PM
Its been said many times through out the thread, but Cabrera is not hitting. What he has done for his career means nothing in the last 2 months. OCAB is an over the hill, 35 year old SS that doubles as a field general for Dusty (apparently). Janish OPSing > .599 improves this team.

OC last 453 PA
.260/.302/.339

Janish last 460 PA (his only 450 PA in the majors btw)
.222/.309/.323

Pretty much equal with the bat and Janish has the better glove. Whats so hard to figure out about this? Dusty is a people person and OC likes to play everyday. WJ gave OC 4MM thinking he was going to get a .700 OPS again. It hasn't happened yet.

TRF
08-05-2010, 12:59 PM
Wait, TRF, weren't you the LEADER of the Drew Stubbs walk numbers won't carry to the majors bandwagon? And if great field, light stick Stubbs walk rate wouldn't carry then why are you now arguing the converse with regards to great field, light hit Paul Janish????

A few reasons.

1 Janish didn't need to hit for more power. He needed more hits. Stubbs was/is a K machine, something Janish isn't. Stubbs was striking out at a prodigious rate while NOT hitting for power. Janish's out problems are on balls in play. So it's different. Stubbs BB rate IMO wouldn't last with his leadoff hitter approach. Now if he has turned to a power game, it might. Janish's lack of SLG can be attributed to a lack of singles. His history says he's a lock for 20+ doubles if he gets over 300 AB's. He needs a hit total to top 140+. If he can do that. he's a mid .700 OPS guy. guaranteed.

2. I don't think at the MLB level you can carry both Stubbs and Janish as starters. both have serious warts. If I have to choose between the two defensively, I pick the slick SS over the slick CF. Heisey or Dickerson are a nick below Stubbs defensively, but their bats are light years better. For the Reds, Only Cozart looms as a POSSIBLE threat with the stick.

3. I didn't like Stubbs. thppt!

4. ... That's about it. :)

westofyou
08-05-2010, 01:08 PM
Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources than singles (extra base hits, walks and net bases gained through stolen bases) to at bats.

Janish has a MLB secondary average of .207, which is really not very good,

pahster
08-05-2010, 01:13 PM
Good points, but I think the days of middle infielders with 19" necks coming out of Central and South Amercia are dwindling quickly.

I think Ramirez, Uribe and Furcal were juicers. (just an opinion). The reality currently....OCab is an average hitting NL shortstop.

If Janish is anywhere close to .640....it's a huge upgrade, and frees up some serious $.

He's well below average relative to his peers.

2010 MLB SS: .264/.322/.371/.693
2010 Cabrera: .260/.302/.339/.641

Big Klu
08-05-2010, 01:15 PM
A lot has been shown, pretty accurately that Janish has not been a good hitter in his professional career.

No one is saying why though.

2006-2009 as a pro, 4 levels of baseball produced the following:

2006 - 24 doubles.
2007 - 29 doubles.
2008 - 22 doubles.
2009 - 21 doubles.

That is a trend. More numbers...

2006 - 46 BB's 448 AB's
2007 - 64 BB's 523 AB's
2008 - 33 BB's 398 AB's
2009 - 26 BB's 256 AB's

Easy enough to say he's a fair bet for 60+ BB's if he gets over 500 AB's That's pretty solid. More numbers...

2006 - 55 K's 448 AB's
2007 - 85 K's523 AB's
2008 - 89 K's 398 AB's
2009 - 40 K's 256 AB's

The K's certainly increased as he moved up.

The problem with his OPS seems to be SLG. And I'm not talking HR's here, I'm talking singles. If over 500 PA's Janish can garner 150+ hits, then his SLG will rise a bit, but his OBP will too. His walk rate is more than acceptable.

We have all read the articles about his strength, off season workouts to increase his wrist strength etc. Did you know that physically he's about the exact same size as Derek Jeter? Probably not nearly as strong as Jeter though. I'm NOT saying he will suddenly become Derek Jeter just becaus he's doing wrist exercises. I just found it interesting how similar they are physically.

Some guys do develop late. Some need some life coaching. Janish could be a late bloomer, and give the Reds solid production for 4-5 years. He could regress too. It's an interesting time to find out though.

If Janish (or anyone), can get 150 hits in 500 PA's, then he would have a batting average over .300, and that would dispel the belief that he wasn't a good hitter.

So it seems to me that you are saying that if Janish would go out and be a good hitter, then he could disprove the previous evidence that he isn't a good hitter.

VR
08-05-2010, 01:15 PM
He's well below average relative to his peers.

2010 MLB SS: .264/.322/.371/.693
2010 Cabrera: .260/.302/.339/.641

what is the NL #?

pahster
08-05-2010, 01:17 PM
what is the NL #?

.264/.326/.377/.702

TheNext44
08-05-2010, 01:47 PM
I have made this point before, and it is similar to the one that TRF And RMR made.

Paul Janish should be a decent hitter.

He has a good eye.
He makes contact often enough.
He's big enough.

Those are the three main factors in deciding who can hit. You need a good eye, the ability to make contact, and be strong enough to hit the ball for power.

Guys that don't hit well, either don't make enough contact, don't walk enough, or don't have the size needed to hit for enough power to make pitchers afraid to throw them strikes.

But Janish has none of these problems, so he should be able to hit decently. He clearly has not hit decently until this year. I think the head scratching part is his past, not his present.

If you just look at his big numbers, it's easy to say he's a bad hitter. But if you look deeper into them, like TRF, and RMR did, you have to wonder why he's been so bad, because it just doesn't make sense. His current success this year makes sense, which is why I think it is more likely to continue than not.

VR
08-05-2010, 02:25 PM
.264/.326/.377/.702

thanks pahster.

From an 'average' standpoint, are there 15 SS's with higher OpS in the NL....perhaps 'median' would have been a better term to use.

GOYA
08-05-2010, 03:04 PM
Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources than singles (extra base hits, walks and net bases gained through stolen bases) to at bats.

Janish has a MLB secondary average of .207, which is really not very good,

So what?

A guy could hit .350, score a bunch of runs, drive in a bunch of runs, JUST by hitting singles. Again, statistics overshadow baseball. There is nothing about secondary average that says Janish cannot be a productive addition to the Reds' starting lineup. Singles are a GOOD thing.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 03:12 PM
So what?

A guy could hit .350, score a bunch of runs, drive in a bunch of runs, JUST by hitting singles. Again, statistics overshadow baseball. There is nothing about secondary average that says Janish cannot be a productive addition to the Reds' starting lineup. Singles are a GOOD thing.

It's just another one of those damn stats that show that the man's game is limited, if he hit 60 HR's it wouldn't be, just like if he hit more singles or walked more.

Secondary average is important to players that don't fuel their game with batting average, that's just a plain fact.

SMcGavin
08-05-2010, 03:58 PM
His current success this year makes sense, which is why I think it is more likely to continue than not.

You'd go that far? That Janish has a better than 50/50 chance of keeping up what he's doing now? Surely thousands of professional plate appearances are a better barometer of future results than the eyeball test you are proposing.

TRF
08-05-2010, 04:03 PM
It's just another one of those damn stats that show that the man's game is limited, if he hit 60 HR's it wouldn't be, just like if he hit more singles or walked more.

Secondary average is important to players that don't fuel their game with batting average, that's just a plain fact.

All arguments on both sides come down to two things: is he an outlier? has he progressed as a player?

Nobody doubts (almost nobody) that defensively it isn't close. It's the offense.

Every number I have looked at says all Janish needs is more singles, well more hits in general. He's been consistent with hitting doubles. IF he's really stronger, IF he has embraced the coaching, IF he's turned a corner as he is entering his age prime years, the he's got the tools to be a starter.

yeah, it's a lot of IF's. got a better solution?

Hoosier Red
08-05-2010, 04:06 PM
So what?

A guy could hit .350, score a bunch of runs, drive in a bunch of runs, JUST by hitting singles. Again, statistics overshadow baseball. There is nothing about secondary average that says Janish cannot be a productive addition to the Reds' starting lineup. Singles are a GOOD thing.

Yeah, but he doesn't hit .350.
TRF and others are trying to argue that he could hit .350, or at least there are factors suggesting that he could and should hit for a higher average.
WOY just came up with a statistic that shows those specific factor's effect may not be as great as TRF and others thought.

Ultimately all the numbers are meaningless when taken by themselves. Oddly enough, they're all meaningful depending on what you're trying to prove.

TRF
08-05-2010, 04:24 PM
Yeah, but he doesn't hit .350.
TRF and others are trying to argue that he could hit .350, or at least there are factors suggesting that he could and should hit for a higher average.
WOY just came up with a statistic that shows those specific factor's effect may not be as great as TRF and others thought.

Ultimately all the numbers are meaningless when taken by themselves. Oddly enough, they're all meaningful depending on what you're trying to prove.

I agree... and disagree. It proves what he's done. It hasn't proved that he is still that player. His sample for 2010 is 41 games and 82 PA's. Small enough to still fluctuate wildly based on a good or bad day. He had about the same amount of games and PA's in 2008, his MLB debut. Those were some ugly numbers.

Will more AB's mean a return to 2008-09? or do his current numbers (minus plate appearances) show who he is NOW?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/ss/league/nl/sort/isolatedPower/type/sabermetric/order/true/minpa/75

Seems all he is lacking is PA's. IF this is now his true skill level.

RedsManRick
08-05-2010, 04:31 PM
Right... which is why I asked, do you truly think it's a legitimate possibility that Janish has now become that .750 OPS player? I didn't accuse you of making some proclamation about his future. You think it's possible Janish's numbers this year are due to a true increase in skill to the .750 level, I think that is extremely unlikely.

We're in full agreement on paragraph #2.

Maybe you consider it parsing words, but I think there's a big distinction between suggesting something is possibly true and stating that is true. I believe it's possible that Janish has now become a .750 OPS hitter. You think that it's extremely unlikely.

What I don't understand, beyond citing his past OPS, is why you think that it is extremely unlikely. When you look at his underlying skills, they all seem to be along the lines of what he's done before. Nothing jumps out at me as just plain "fluky".

Players develop at different rates and different times. It's not the most common path for a guy to take, to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors through a breakout in his late 20's, but it's hardly rare. Janish's underlying skill set suggests that he's capable of sustaining an OPS in the .750 range -- especially when you consider that his 2008 & 2009 seasons in the majors were significantly impacted by low BABIP (one which does not seem in line with a guy who hits line drives on 20% of his balls in play). Maybe's he been showing a level of skill that is unsustainable (getting pitched around a lot, hitting the ball more frequently and harder than he will over the long run, etc.), but I've yet to see somebody make that argument.

I'm sorry for belaboring the point, I'm just frustrated that nobody seems to be willing to engage in a discussion beyond citing past year's OPS and throwing anecdotal evidence against the wall.

GOYA
08-05-2010, 04:39 PM
Yeah, but he doesn't hit .350.

No, but he is hitting .300. And that wasn't my point.

westofyou
08-05-2010, 04:41 PM
I'm sorry for belaboring the point, I'm just frustrated that nobody seems to be willing to engage in a discussion beyond citing past year's OPS and throwing anecdotal evidence against the wall.

In response to the mythical "he could" and "if" the aforementioned approach is hardly a paper tiger.

Tell ya what, why don't you frame the response you'd like to see and we'll all follow your lead if the conversation is too weak for you.

TRF
08-05-2010, 04:42 PM
Right... which is why I asked, do you truly think it's a legitimate possibility that Janish has now become that .750 OPS player? I didn't accuse you of making some proclamation about his future. You think it's possible Janish's numbers this year are due to a true increase in skill to the .750 level, I think that is extremely unlikely.

We're in full agreement on paragraph #2.

I had an argument with another poster regarding Joey Votto at the end of last year. I said Votto was now on the level of Pujols. His argument was he's not really a .950-1.000 OPS player because his BABIP was so high. My rebuttal was he is until he isn't.

Prior to this year, Janish was a .650ish OPS player with... circumstances. A coach telling him to get stronger, motivation to be a starter etc.

Right now, Paul Janish is an .866 OPS player, right up until he isn't.

TRF
08-05-2010, 04:48 PM
In response to the mythical "he could" and "if" the aforementioned approach is hardly a paper tiger.

Tell ya what, why don't you frame the response you'd like to see and we'll all follow your lead if the conversation is too weak for you.

Or we could accept your word at face value that players never progress, never bloom late, never exceed their minor league numbers.

And for every number you've thrown out there, you haven't once answered the argument we've put forward: Is it possible Janish (like Dickerson at AAA not that long ago) has fundamentally changed as a player in both approach and ability?

Or are we now saying past performance is always indicative of future performance?

westofyou
08-05-2010, 04:54 PM
Or we could accept your word at face value that players never progress, never bloom late, never exceed their minor league numbers.

And for every number you've thrown out there, you haven't once answered the argument we've put forward: Is it possible Janish (like Dickerson at AAA not that long ago) has fundamentally changed as a player in both approach and ability?

Or are we now saying past performance is always indicative of future performance?

Anything is possible, that I believe.

But the odds are steep and that I know.

nate
08-05-2010, 05:10 PM
I had an argument with another poster regarding Joey Votto at the end of last year. I said Votto was now on the level of Pujols. His argument was he's not really a .950-1.000 OPS player because his BABIP was so high. My rebuttal was he is until he isn't.

Prior to this year, Janish was a .650ish OPS player with... circumstances. A coach telling him to get stronger, motivation to be a starter etc.

Right now, Paul Janish is an .866 OPS player, right up until he isn't.

No. He's a .631 OPS until he isn't. That's his career number.

Keep in mind, yesterday he was a .613 OPS and now he isn't. So he's headed in the right direction.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:16 PM
Anything is possible, that I believe.

But the odds are steep and that I know.

I completely agree.

But for a change, at least for me, I'm leaning towards the positive. Besides, it ain't like the Reds have another option.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:18 PM
No. He's a .631 OPS until he isn't. That's his career number.

Keep in mind, yesterday he was a .613 OPS and now he isn't. So he's headed in the right direction.

yesterday it was .797

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:20 PM
It may mean nothing, but Janish had a fantastic ST as well, something he hasn't had in any season prior to this one.

Past performance aside, I think he's more than what he was.

thatcoolguy_22
08-05-2010, 05:20 PM
I think everyone is missing the point. CABRERA CAN NOT HIT ANYMORE. As long as Janish holds a .600 OPS he should be the starter. Anything more is just a bonus.

Hoosier Red
08-05-2010, 05:25 PM
No, but he is hitting .300. And that wasn't my point.

True enough.
The point WOY was making (or at least what I took from it) was that the career OPS number is what he is most likely to "regress" to unless there is a great deal of evidence for why it isn't.

TRF made the point that Janish's hits other than singles and his good eye show that he should be able to improve his OBP above where he was say 3 years ago. WOY brought up secondary average to show why that wasn't likely to be the case.

I think everyone would be fine with Janish at SS if he continues to hit .300.

But the debate appears to center around whether he's more likely to keep hitting .300 and has an .866 OPS or more likely to have a .676 OPS that looks like his career between AA and AAA. And at what level is his OPS high enough to be the most productive SS option for the Reds?

If that wasn't your point in saying;
So what?
A guy could hit .350, score a bunch of runs, drive in a bunch of runs, JUST by hitting singles. Again, statistics overshadow baseball. There is nothing about secondary average that says Janish cannot be a productive addition to the Reds' starting lineup. Singles are a GOOD thing.

I apologize. What was the specific point you were making that I missed?

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 05:32 PM
It may mean nothing, but Janish had a fantastic ST as well, something he hasn't had in any season prior to this one.

Past performance aside, I think he's more than what he was.

My feeling as well. He's always had the SKILLS to be a good hitter, just not the strength. If it turns out that this was his one missing ingredient...he just might be a keeper. I think we've all seen players develop late or change their approach and it makes a world of difference. It's just seemed to me that this possibility is so readily dismissed in the case of Janish.

jojo
08-05-2010, 05:34 PM
The transformation that is being suggested as "possible" in this thread would actually be a fairly historic scenario....

nate
08-05-2010, 05:35 PM
yesterday it was .797

http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=29130

Career numbers.

nate
08-05-2010, 05:39 PM
I think the more interesting question is what level of offensive performance from Janish sends O-Cab to the bench? Given that there's about a third of the season left and Janish only has a handful of PAs, it's not farfetched to suggest he could put up a pretty shiny slash line.

What line over the next two weeks usurps O-Cab? Is that even possible?

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 05:41 PM
The transformation that is being suggested as "possible" in this thread would actually be a fairly historic scenario....

If you're talking about going to .750 ops, I'd agree. I don't think that's a realistic number for him. Possible, sure. Realistic, no. But I do think it's realistic for him to be much better than his previous career numbers. AND better than Cabrera's number this season.

_Sir_Charles_
08-05-2010, 05:43 PM
I think the more interesting question is what level of offensive performance from Janish sends O-Cab to the bench? Given that there's about a third of the season left and Janish only has a handful of PAs, it's not farfetched to suggest he could put up a pretty shiny slash line.

What line over the next two weeks usurps O-Cab? Is that even possible?

Personally, I don't think it's possible. With us being in a pennant race and the way the club talks about Cabrera's intangibles...if Orlando comes back healthy...he'll start. It's unfortunate, but it'll be the truth.

I mean, I thought that after Paul did that 4 for 4 game with the dinger subbing for Votto's early exit, I thought for SURE that he'd get a start the next day or at least soon after. Wrong-o. That 4 for 4 game was on the 4th of July...he didn't get another at bat until the 11th, and then his next game was on the 20th. Nope, Ocab will start.

HokieRed
08-05-2010, 05:48 PM
If you're talking about going to .750 ops, I'd agree. I don't think that's a realistic number for him. Possible, sure. Realistic, no. But I do think it's realistic for him to be much better than his previous career numbers. AND better than Cabrera's number this season.

I'd say the serious question for 2011 is whether Janish can do .700 and, if he can, is he going to be the better option than Cozart--this judgment based, of course, on what Cozart can put up.

nate
08-05-2010, 05:51 PM
Personally, I don't think it's possible. With us being in a pennant race and the way the club talks about Cabrera's intangibles...if Orlando comes back healthy...he'll start. It's unfortunate, but it'll be the truth.

I mean, I thought that after Paul did that 4 for 4 game with the dinger subbing for Votto's early exit, I thought for SURE that he'd get a start the next day or at least soon after. Wrong-o.

I dunno. If Janish tears it up with a high .800 OPS over the 50-60 PAs he's likely to get in the next two weeks, they might be able to say O-Cab's injury is "worse" than they thought.

TRF
08-05-2010, 05:53 PM
I think the more interesting question is what level of offensive performance from Janish sends O-Cab to the bench? Given that there's about a third of the season left and Janish only has a handful of PAs, it's not farfetched to suggest he could put up a pretty shiny slash line.

What line over the next two weeks usurps O-Cab? Is that even possible?

Assuming OCab comes back in 2 weeks, and that isn't a given, if he regresses to .740, Dusty will plug Cabrera right back into the #2 slot and play him everyday.

And that would be a mistake. At worst, Janish should start twice a week spelling OCab and Rolen.

Janish has such odd numbers that he literally could go either way. He lacks HR pop, but manages to average 24 doubles a year. He'l walk 60+ times but can't seem to hit for a high enough average to make that meaningful. His BABIP historically has been low and doesn't jive with his LD% (and LD% has a bit more meaning at AAA/MLB than it does in the lower minors, but thats another discussion).

It's like a pitcher that needs a tiny adjustment, then suddenly bam. Chris Carpenter was a #4 starter in Toronto. Pedestrian numbers across the board. Moves to the NL and he's a different pitcher. And I don't think it is just because he moved to the NL.

That COULD be Janish. Is it likely? no. Is it possible?

yeah, it's possible.

Mario-Rijo
08-05-2010, 07:14 PM
I dunno. If Janish tears it up with a high .800 OPS over the 50-60 PAs he's likely to get in the next two weeks, they might be able to say O-Cab's injury is "worse" than they thought.

Above all else Dusty likes to win so I agree with ya OCAB will sit if Paul is lighting it up. Sure he did have a great few games here and there earlier in the season but right now he has a chance to get a on a roll and Dusty won't pull him off that field if he does. And another thing if Paul actually has improved he will get on that roll most likely sans a rash of good glove work by the opposition.

TheNext44
08-05-2010, 07:29 PM
The transformation that is being suggested as "possible" in this thread would actually be a fairly historic scenario....

From a purely OPS standpoint, absolutely.

However, from a peripherals standpoint, I think the opposite is probably true.

A think that is fairly historic for a batter with Janish's contact rate, BB rate, LD rate and size to have an OPS closer to .600 than .700. In fact I would imagine it would be rare, if not historic, for that batter to have a career OPS well below .750, since that is what those paripherals suggest it should be.

jojo
08-05-2010, 07:49 PM
From a purely OPS standpoint, absolutely.

However, from a peripherals standpoint, I think the opposite is probably true.

A think that is fairly historic for a batter with Janish's contact rate, BB rate, LD rate and size to have an OPS closer to .600 than .700. In fact I would imagine it would be rare, if not historic, for that batter to have a career OPS well below .750, since that is what those paripherals suggest it should be.

Why not test that assertion?

TheNext44
08-05-2010, 09:32 PM
Why not test that assertion?

Oh, how I wish I had the time.

TheNext44
08-05-2010, 09:35 PM
I dunno. If Janish tears it up with a high .800 OPS over the 50-60 PAs he's likely to get in the next two weeks, they might be able to say O-Cab's injury is "worse" than they thought.

Something like... "A new MRI revealed that Janish provides more overall production than Cabrera, pushing Cabrera's timetable back at least another two weeks."

Far East
08-05-2010, 11:36 PM
That #8 spot in the lineup is the most difficult one for a hitter, what with the pitcher to follow and # 8 frequently getting the opposition's best pitcher's pitches, even on a hitter's count.

I never saw any one guy get as many nasty pitches as did Jason LaRue, for example.

So if Janish bats eighth, he might have a difficult time putting up offensive numbers compared to Cabrara, who has been mostly getting to hit right in front of Votto.

Scrap Irony
08-06-2010, 01:07 AM
I disagree, Far East. 8th place hitters often get pitched around because of the pitcher. This usually means those guys have artificially inflated obp numbers.

(Of course, that may even out over the course of a season, as managers sak them to expand their strike zones with two outs.)

Ron Madden
08-06-2010, 03:34 AM
I dunno. If Janish tears it up with a high .800 OPS over the 50-60 PAs he's likely to get in the next two weeks, they might be able to say O-Cab's injury is "worse" than they thought.

I wish that would happen but I doubt it will. In baseball old beliefs die hard.

Orlando Cabrera is a greybeard that has been fortunate enough to play on winning teams, it really doesn't matter if he can't hit or field his position very well anymore. He can still ground out to second base with runners on second or third and less than two outs.

He is a veteran presence who knows how to win, A clubhouse leader.

;)

TRF
08-06-2010, 09:05 AM
I disagree, Far East. 8th place hitters often get pitched around because of the pitcher. This usually means those guys have artificially inflated obp numbers.

(Of course, that may even out over the course of a season, as managers sak them to expand their strike zones with two outs.)

With 1 or 2 outs, and runners on with the #8 hitter up, the pitcher wants to pitch tough. He doesn't want to face the pitcher that inning, he wants him leading off. With one out, he wants the groundball. with 2 outs, probably wants the K.

fearofpopvol1
08-07-2010, 10:24 PM
Dude had a big 2 out hit today that proved to be the difference in the game, really.

Brutus
08-07-2010, 10:55 PM
Smaller parks, grass fields coupled with recent history suggest that the paradigm won't be shifting back to the 70's-80's archetype anytime soon.

It's not likely to get back to the 70's standard, but given the way this year is going, we're getting close(r) to being back in 1985 (cue the Bowling For Soup song).

This year, the league OPS from the SS position is .693. For context, in 1985 it was .656 and in 1975 it was .612.

I feel we're starting to trend back close to the 80's. Smaller parks, as you said, are likely to get us all the way back--but we're close.

Puffy
05-25-2011, 11:07 AM
Thanks to Homer Bailey for bringing this up in gamethread last night.

Just an awesome thread :lol:

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 11:22 AM
Yes, this makes for fairly good reading.

GOYA
05-25-2011, 12:44 PM
Janish has a BABIP of .238 and a line drive % of 22.5.

reds44
05-25-2011, 12:47 PM
I think people fail to comprehend how bad a .510 OPS is.

I think I can't even comprehend it.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 12:54 PM
Janish has a BABIP of .238 and a line drive % of 22.5.

Janish doesn't hit many line drives.

Homer Bailey
05-25-2011, 12:54 PM
Janish has a BABIP of .238 and a line drive % of 22.5.

Yeah but would a Janish line drive break glass?

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 12:59 PM
I think people fail to comprehend how bad a .510 OPS is.

I think I can't even comprehend it.

Here's how bad it is. Only 5 players have qualified for the batting title in the last 5 years who have had under a .600 OPS, and only one of those was under .560 (Cesar Izturis .545 last year).

Guys who hit this bad do not last very long in a starting role. What we are seeing is somewhat unprecedented.

Since 2000, no qualified player was anywhere near .510. Hopefully PJ comes around b/c he won't be for long if he keeps this up, no matter how good his glove may be.

reds44
05-25-2011, 12:59 PM
Janish doesn't hit many line drives.
Something about us being on the same page makes me feel good inside lol

reds44
05-25-2011, 01:00 PM
Here's how bad it is. Only 5 players have qualified for the batting title in the last 5 years who have had under a .600 OPS, and only one of those was under .560 (Cesar Izturis .545 last year).

Guys who hit this bad do not last very long in a starting role. What we are seeing is somewhat unprecedented.

Since 2000, no qualified player was anywhere near .510. Hopefully PJ comes around b/c he won't be for long if he keeps this up, no matter how good his glove may be.
Thank you!!! I kept waiting for somebody to put it into context.

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 01:03 PM
I'm wondering why Cozart isn't being considered for some starts at SS? You've got Janish putting up Juan Castro type numbers, his backup (Renteria) has one foot into retirement and yet I hear very little chatter about Cozart

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:03 PM
Thank you!!! I kept waiting for somebody to put it into context.

Rey Ordonez, the poster boy of recent all field/no hit shortstops, had a career .599 OPS and his worst three "full" seasons went .511, .572 and .599.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:04 PM
I'm wondering why Cozart isn't being considered for some starts at SS? You've got Janish putting up Juan Castro type numbers, his backup (Renteria) has one foot into retirement and yet I hear very little chatter about Cozart

Cozart's numbers in the upper minors aren't screaming great success either. But it can't be much worse than what we are getting from this duo either.

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 01:07 PM
Cozart's numbers in the upper minors aren't screaming great success either. But it can't be much worse than what we are getting from this duo either.

Did Drew Stubbs' upper minors numbers scream success?

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:12 PM
Did Drew Stubbs' upper minors numbers scream success?

No, but I think the scouts saw more potential in his bat than Cozart. Stubbs is also somewhat of an outlier.

Puffy
05-25-2011, 01:13 PM
Cozart's numbers in the upper minors aren't screaming great success either. But it can't be much worse than what we are getting from this duo either.

Yup. I'm not sure Cozart is any more than a .600 OPS shortstop right now and I don't think his defense is quite as good as Janish. So what would we really be gaining.

And just for the record - - Orlando Cabrera goes to Cleveland and lo and behold Cleveland has one of the best records in baseball for the first third of the season. This after being on teams who made playoffs in, what, 5 straight years?

Maybe, just maybe, he provided something more than just an OPS number and "less than stellar" defense, eh? Kinda like the people who want to DFA Gomes, a very popular clubhouse guy and one of the current pulses of Reds. Maybe the Reds keeping him has something to do with a happy clubhouse, a clubhouse where the guys feel they are never out of things?

But that can't be true, can it?

Cyclone792
05-25-2011, 01:16 PM
I think people fail to comprehend how bad a .510 OPS is.

I think I can't even comprehend it.

Here's a fun game to think about. I'll give you (and anybody else) a chance to make a few guesses before providing the answer, in which case we'll all barf all over ourselves.

Anyway, here it is. Below are three 2011 Reds OPS numbers from a time period of at least the previous 30 days. All three OPS numbers have PA sample sizes of at least 87 PAs. Who owns these OPS numbers?

.431
.403
.360

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:17 PM
Yup. I'm not sure Cozart is any more than a .600 OPS shortstop right now and I don't think his defense is quite as good as Janish. So what would we really be gaining.

And just for the record - - Orlando Cabrera goes to Cleveland and lo and behold Cleveland has one of the best records in baseball for the first third of the season. This after being on teams who made playoffs in, what, 5 straight years?

Maybe, just maybe, he provided something more than just an OPS number and "less than stellar" defense, eh? Kinda like the people who want to DFA Gomes, a very popular clubhouse guy and one of the current pulses of Reds. Maybe the Reds keeping him has something to do with a happy clubhouse, a clubhouse where the guys feel they are never out of things?

But that can't be true, can it?

The other thing that some say in debates like these is "how much worse can
_______ be?" Last year OCab would be in the low to middle .600s and we would hear "Janish can do that and play GG defense". This is why you see teams go get vets with track records, their floors tend to be somewhat higher than the unproven. Obviously Renteria is not working to that effect so far, but Cabrera did last year.

We know that a mid .600s OPS isn't great, but how bad is pushing an OPS that starts with a 4? Hopefully he has hit rock bottom and starts hitting soon.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:18 PM
Here's a fun game to think about. I'll give you (and anybody else) a chance to make a few guesses before providing the answer, in which case we'll all barf all over ourselves.

Anyway, here it is. Below are three 2011 Reds OPS numbers from a time period of at least the previous 30 days. All three OPS numbers have PA sample sizes of at least 87 PAs. Who owns these OPS numbers?

.431
.403
.360

Gomes, Janish, Renteria?

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 01:18 PM
No, but I think the scouts saw more potential in his bat than Cozart. Stubbs is also somewhat of an outlier.

Stubbs is the poster child for the anti-SABR crowd. The SABR folks projected him as a 4th outfielder and now I'm hearing superstar being thrown around. Me, personally, I saw that swing and knew he'd at least hit for power and I never bothered to study his minor league stats. I could tell from that swing that he was no punch and judy hitter. If he struck out like crazy he may turn into Rolando Roomes but lucky for us, that wasn't the case

Cyclone792
05-25-2011, 01:20 PM
Gomes, Janish, Renteria?

The first two are sort of correct. Flip-flop the order (it's Janish, then Gomes), and you've got it. Those are their OPS numbers since April 20th.

The third is actually not one player, but a collection of players. I now see that the wording of the question may have been confusing so my apologies. Anyhow, think of a group of guys and not just one guy.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:21 PM
The first two are sort of correct. Flip-flop the order (it's Janish, then Gomes), and you've got it.

The third is actually not one player, but a collection of players. I now see that the wording of the question may have been confusing so my apologies. Anyhow, think of a group of guys and not just one guy.

3B?

oneupper
05-25-2011, 01:21 PM
Here's a fun game to think about. I'll give you (and anybody else) a chance to make a few guesses before providing the answer, in which case we'll all barf all over ourselves.

Anyway, here it is. Below are three 2011 Reds OPS numbers from a time period of at least the previous 30 days. All three OPS numbers have PA sample sizes of at least 87 PAs. Who owns these OPS numbers?

.431
.403
.360

Gomes, Janish and Rolen?

Cyclone792
05-25-2011, 01:25 PM
Not 3B as a group or Rolen.

Not Renteria either, though I guess we can technically add him as option 4. Since that same April 20th date, Renteria's OPS is .476 in 70 PAs. I knew he's been bad, but I didn't even realize how bad until I just looked at it.

jojo
05-25-2011, 01:30 PM
Stubbs is the poster child for the anti-SABR crowd. The SABR folks projected him as a 4th outfielder and now I'm hearing superstar being thrown around. Me, personally, I saw that swing and knew he'd at least hit for power and I never bothered to study his minor league stats. I could tell from that swing that he was no punch and judy hitter. If he struck out like crazy he may turn into Rolando Roomes but lucky for us, that wasn't the case

I seem to remember making stat-based arguments for Stubbs based upon his defensive potential...i.e. he could OPS around 700 and still be valuable...

I don't think its accurate to say SABR guys hated Stubbs.

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 01:33 PM
I don't think its accurate to say SABR guys hated Stubbs.

That wouldn't be my choice of words either

pedro
05-25-2011, 01:35 PM
Because he sucks.

It wasn't exactly hard to project.

CTA513
05-25-2011, 01:35 PM
Bench him and play Renteria more.

:D

RichRed
05-25-2011, 01:36 PM
Not 3B as a group or Rolen.

Not Renteria either, though I guess we can technically add him as option 4. Since that same April 20th date, Renteria's OPS is .476 in 70 PAs. I knew he's been bad, but I didn't even realize how bad until I just looked at it.

Gotta be the pitchers.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:41 PM
Gotta be the pitchers.

I think you nailed it. That's the puke part.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 01:42 PM
Because he sucks.

It wasn't exactly hard to project.

:D

I was waiting for you to chime in somewhere. You were one of the more vocal guys this offseason.

Puffy
05-25-2011, 01:52 PM
Because he sucks.

It wasn't exactly hard to project.

Dude. Quit parsing your words. Tell us how you really feel!!

:laugh:

oneupper
05-25-2011, 01:54 PM
Gotta be the pitchers.

That's why we need Dontrelle. Career OPS .634!

westofyou
05-25-2011, 02:00 PM
Current Reds SS are pace for the worst RC/27 by SS on the Reds since 1971 (another transition year)

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2011, 02:14 PM
Thanks to Homer Bailey for bringing this up in gamethread last night.

Just an awesome thread :lol:

Yep. I meant to re-read it last night but got distracted. Some good stuff in here.

And after re-reading it...my opinion STILL hasn't changed on Janish. I don't think he's a good hitter in regards to the fact that he's a below average hitter. But I DO think he's much better than the career stat line (and current stat line) that he's put up. Considerably so. I just get kinda bummed out when I think about the crummy timing of his ankle injury. Right when he was in a groove. Oh well.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2011, 02:17 PM
Yeah but would a Janish line drive break glass?

This kind of stuff really isn't very fair to Paul. He definitely can hit the ball hard. He smoked 2 of them yesterday that "should" have been hits if not for 2 superb defensive plays. Paul had one very weak pop out that went to Howard and everyone was moaning about it. I laughed. Because just before Janish's ab...Heisey hit a ball in EXACTLY the same way, but it went just a bit more to the left and dropped in for a hit. Sometimes I forget just how much this game is just a matter of inches.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2011, 02:20 PM
Here's how bad it is. Only 5 players have qualified for the batting title in the last 5 years who have had under a .600 OPS, and only one of those was under .560 (Cesar Izturis .545 last year).

Guys who hit this bad do not last very long in a starting role. What we are seeing is somewhat unprecedented.

Since 2000, no qualified player was anywhere near .510. Hopefully PJ comes around b/c he won't be for long if he keeps this up, no matter how good his glove may be.

Does anybody here seriously think he'll maintain his current numbers for the course of a year? This is a bad example of "how bad it is" because we're talking about such limited numbers. If he did this for a full season, sure, it would be historically bad. But how often do players have these types of numbers with under 150 ab's?

westofyou
05-25-2011, 02:26 PM
Does anybody here seriously think he'll maintain his current numbers for the course of a year? This is a bad example of "how bad it is" because we're talking about such limited numbers. If he did this for a full season, sure, it would be historically bad. But how often to players have these types of numbers with under 150 ab's?

How about this line in 800PA's??

.224/.297/.313

Stunning in its mediocrity

jojo
05-25-2011, 02:26 PM
That's why we need Dontrelle. Career OPS .634!

Im not sure he could throw strikes to first though....

bucksfan2
05-25-2011, 02:26 PM
Does anybody here seriously think he'll maintain his current numbers for the course of a year? This is a bad example of "how bad it is" because we're talking about such limited numbers. If he did this for a full season, sure, it would be historically bad. But how often to players have these types of numbers with under 150 ab's?

He is bad. Historically bad. He doesn't hit many balls hard. He absolutely ripped one the other night that was caught up against the wall, in PHILLY!

I don't necessarily expect him to stay this bad but to expect his bat to be acceptable is a stretch.

reds44
05-25-2011, 02:30 PM
I like how we alll can remember the 3 balls Janish has hit hard in the last month.

Awesome lol.

And yes, I was on record before the year saying if Janish plays everyday he could post an OPS of below .600. He's that bad.

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 02:31 PM
Does anybody here seriously think he'll maintain his current numbers for the course of a year? This is a bad example of "how bad it is" because we're talking about such limited numbers. If he did this for a full season, sure, it would be historically bad. But how often do players have these types of numbers with under 150 ab's?

He really doesn't have the track record to give us comfort that this is just a small sample size issue. Sure we can assume he will get a little better, but enough to make a difference?

reds44
05-25-2011, 02:31 PM
How about this line in 800PA's??

.224/.297/.313

Stunning in its mediocrity
Calling that mediocre is an insult to mediocrity. Dats bad.

OldXOhio
05-25-2011, 02:50 PM
He is bad. Historically bad. He doesn't hit many balls hard. He absolutely ripped one the other night that was caught up against the wall, in PHILLY!

I don't necessarily expect him to stay this bad but to expect his bat to be acceptable is a stretch.

Why not? I think we've seen enough to know his ceiling at the plate is nothing more than mediocrity. I expect him to be this bad and would be far more surprised if he were even average.

RedsManRick
05-25-2011, 02:52 PM
Sigh. Conflating full-season performance and performance in 2 months is just ridiculous. Yes, if Janish puts up 600 PA of .511 OPS, that would be historically bad. But that's apples and oranges. A smaller sample size has a much greater variability. I guess it's fun to speculate that Janish will continue to be historically bad. But something tells me that if he were OPSing .720, an equal deviation from his career levels (and better supported by recent history), nobody would be posting about how he's finally turned the corner and establishing himself as a solid major league SS.

As of today, there are 15 players with at least 100 PA and an OPS under .550. Here's the list. Note the presense of guys like Magglio Ordonez, and Carl Crawford. The simple takeway, if you're OPSing this bad after 50 games, your're probably not a great hitter, but you could easily be a very good one just having a bad season so far.



Name Team BABIP BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS* 2010 Career
Reid Brignac Rays .227 4% 25% .170 .210 .180 .390 .692 .630
Magglio Ordonez Tigers .184 7% 11% .172 .226 .232 .459 .852 .876
Michael Saunder M's .235 7% 31% .176 .230 .264 .494 .662 .595
Paul Janish Reds .238 3% 11% .216 .250 .261 .511 .723 .610
Miguel Tejada Giants .232 3% 10% .220 .241 .280 .522 .692 .795
Josh Thole Mets .247 10% 20% .205 .281 .241 .522 .723 .666
Mark Ellis A's .246 4% 17% .207 .243 .280 .523 .739 .730
Vernon Wells Angels .200 5% 21% .183 .224 .303 .527 .847 .797
Chone Figgins M's .226 5% 11% .207 .247 .279 .527 .646 .728
Jose Lopez Rockies .229 2% 12% .215 .234 .298 .531 .609 .691
Alexi Casilla Twins .239 6% 16% .202 .263 .269 .532 .726 .623
Alcides Escobar Royals .264 5% 14% .228 .266 .269 .535 .614 .613
Jorge Cantu Padres .213 5% 19% .198 .242 .297 .539 .695 .758
Carl Crawford Red Sox .252 4% 19% .212 .249 .293 .542 .851 .773
Adam LaRoche Nats .205 14% 25% .172 .288 .258 .546 .788 .815

I'm not suggesting (here) that Janish will be a .700 OPS bat moving forward. But just because a small sample confirms your existing beliefs doesn't mean it legitimately carries any more weight. The weight accorded to an observation based on the size of the sample is completely independent of what you've observed in that sample. Now, the final takeaway does include taking notice of just how different the observation is from the expectation, but as these things go, Janish isn't exactly deviating a ton from his established level of performance. That is to say, a .550 OPS over 150 PA from Carl Crawford is more likely to indicate a decrease in "true talent" than is a .510 OPS from Janish. What we've observed from Janish so far this year shouldn't really do much of anything to change our minds about the kind of hitter he is likely to be moving forward. He's not a good hitter. We knew that when the season started and what we've seen so far is completely within expectation of what we'd expect from a guy with a true talent OPS in the 600s.

Sea Ray
05-25-2011, 03:11 PM
And just to add what Rick said, the reason not more folks OPS that poorly is because they're generally benched before they're allowed to have a full season that bad

edabbs44
05-25-2011, 03:18 PM
Update to RMRs numbers. Carl Crawford goes 4 for 4 today with 2 2Bs and a HR, upping his OPS 57 points to .599.

REDREAD
05-25-2011, 03:33 PM
Gomes, Janish and Rolen?

Rolen has been doing well since off the DL.. 880 OPS.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2011, 05:31 PM
Update to RMRs numbers. Carl Crawford goes 4 for 4 today with 2 2Bs and a HR, upping his OPS 57 points to .599.

Which just goes to show you what? That Crawford's not bad? Or that he doesn't belong on this list? No. It shows us that these numbers are still very much small samples and one good game can swing things dramatically. Janish has done it in the other direction the last week or two.

Griffey012
05-25-2011, 05:34 PM
Yup. I'm not sure Cozart is any more than a .600 OPS shortstop right now and I don't think his defense is quite as good as Janish. So what would we really be gaining.

And just for the record - - Orlando Cabrera goes to Cleveland and lo and behold Cleveland has one of the best records in baseball for the first third of the season. This after being on teams who made playoffs in, what, 5 straight years?

Maybe, just maybe, he provided something more than just an OPS number and "less than stellar" defense, eh? Kinda like the people who want to DFA Gomes, a very popular clubhouse guy and one of the current pulses of Reds. Maybe the Reds keeping him has something to do with a happy clubhouse, a clubhouse where the guys feel they are never out of things?

But that can't be true, can it?

I miss OCab. Especially when Janish comes to the dish with runners on 2nd and 3rd with less than 2 outs. OC seemed to be money in those scenarios.

Never thought I would yearn for a .650 OPS.... :alcohol:

westofyou
05-25-2011, 07:00 PM
Which just goes to show you what? That Crawford's not bad? Or that he doesn't belong on this list? No. It shows us that these numbers are still very much small samples and one good game can swing things dramatically. Janish has done it in the other direction the last week or two.

124 balls in play and 6 doubles and no other EBH.

Smells like poo, looks like poo, gee must be a flower.

kaldaniels
05-25-2011, 07:04 PM
Sigh. Conflating full-season performance and performance in 2 months is just ridiculous. Yes, if Janish puts up 600 PA of .511 OPS, that would be historically bad. But that's apples and oranges. A smaller sample size has a much greater variability. I guess it's fun to speculate that Janish will continue to be historically bad. But something tells me that if he were OPSing .720, an equal deviation from his career levels (and better supported by recent history), nobody would be posting about how he's finally turned the corner and establishing himself as a solid major league SS.

As of today, there are 15 players with at least 100 PA and an OPS under .550. Here's the list. Note the presense of guys like Magglio Ordonez, and Carl Crawford. The simple takeway, if you're OPSing this bad after 50 games, your're probably not a great hitter, but you could easily be a very good one just having a bad season so far.



Name Team BABIP BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS* 2010 Career
Reid Brignac Rays .227 4% 25% .170 .210 .180 .390 .692 .630
Magglio Ordonez Tigers .184 7% 11% .172 .226 .232 .459 .852 .876
Michael Saunder M's .235 7% 31% .176 .230 .264 .494 .662 .595
Paul Janish Reds .238 3% 11% .216 .250 .261 .511 .723 .610
Miguel Tejada Giants .232 3% 10% .220 .241 .280 .522 .692 .795
Josh Thole Mets .247 10% 20% .205 .281 .241 .522 .723 .666
Mark Ellis A's .246 4% 17% .207 .243 .280 .523 .739 .730
Vernon Wells Angels .200 5% 21% .183 .224 .303 .527 .847 .797
Chone Figgins M's .226 5% 11% .207 .247 .279 .527 .646 .728
Jose Lopez Rockies .229 2% 12% .215 .234 .298 .531 .609 .691
Alexi Casilla Twins .239 6% 16% .202 .263 .269 .532 .726 .623
Alcides Escobar Royals .264 5% 14% .228 .266 .269 .535 .614 .613
Jorge Cantu Padres .213 5% 19% .198 .242 .297 .539 .695 .758
Carl Crawford Red Sox .252 4% 19% .212 .249 .293 .542 .851 .773
Adam LaRoche Nats .205 14% 25% .172 .288 .258 .546 .788 .815

I'm not suggesting (here) that Janish will be a .700 OPS bat moving forward. But just because a small sample confirms your existing beliefs doesn't mean it legitimately carries any more weight. The weight accorded to an observation based on the size of the sample is completely independent of what you've observed in that sample. Now, the final takeaway does include taking notice of just how different the observation is from the expectation, but as these things go, Janish isn't exactly deviating a ton from his established level of performance. That is to say, a .550 OPS over 150 PA from Carl Crawford is more likely to indicate a decrease in "true talent" than is a .510 OPS from Janish. What we've observed from Janish so far this year shouldn't really do much of anything to change our minds about the kind of hitter he is likely to be moving forward. He's not a good hitter. We knew that when the season started and what we've seen so far is completely within expectation of what we'd expect from a guy with a true talent OPS in the 600s.

So when do you Rick, decide enough is enough, and actively look to get Janish out of there. He has been replacement level for the most part for about 2 months. Don't take my question above the wrong way, cause I'm not challenging you or anything...you make good points. But I'm just looking to find the point at which you say to yourself, "you know what, Janish just isn't going to acheive his projections, I better adjust my thinking". And I know the Reds don't have a lot of solid/known options at this point, so let's just assume that point to begin with.

Cyclone792
05-25-2011, 07:38 PM
Gotta be the pitchers.


I think you nailed it. That's the puke part.

Yep, it's the pitchers. The puke part is that we have multiple guys who really haven't out hit the pitchers over the course of the last five weeks. Janish, Gomes and Renteria have combined for 250 PAs in that time span of not being much better than the arms at the plate.

RedsManRick
05-25-2011, 07:48 PM
So when do you Rick, decide enough is enough, and actively look to get Janish out of there. He has been replacement level for the most part for about 2 months. Don't take my question above the wrong way, cause I'm not challenging you or anything...you make good points. But I'm just looking to find the point at which you say to yourself, "you know what, Janish just isn't going to acheive his projections, I better adjust my thinking". And I know the Reds don't have a lot of solid/known options at this point, so let's just assume that point to begin with.

Tere are really two questions here that we should not conflate:

1.) What is Janish's true talent -- that is, what level of production should we expect moving forward.

Fangraphs actually provides the data to do this logic. It has the ZIPS projections which take what we knew about the guy going in to the season and adjusts based on how he's performed so far. It's projecting Janish to be .230/.295/.330 the rest of the way. At the beginning of the season, it had Janish at .236/.310/.348. So that gives you an idea of how much 150 PA changes things. It sees a 30 point drop in projected OPS. Is that enough to make you go from "acceptable" to "unacceptable"?

It takes basically a whole season -- at least a half season -- for our best projection (using the stats) to change substantially. So if you want to use his results to make the argument, you're not going to be changing things in May.

Now, as with other cases where we're dealing in small samples, scouting should take a bigger role. Watch him hit. Is he doing things differently than last year? Does it look like he's lost ability? I'd be much more inclined, this early in the season, to make a playing time decision based on a scout's advise than on the stats.

2.) Is that level of production acceptable -- should we find a replacement?

There is no one point at which a guy goes from acceptable to not acceptable. Especially using the stat projections, the change is too gradual. But really, it's a question you ask every single day. How do we make the team better? And the answer changes, incrementally, each day. When's the tipping point? Well, unless your assessment of the player changes substantially (which would be a function of scouting at this point) that's more of a function of the available alternatives. Is a minor leaguer ready to go who wasn't when the season started? Is there a trade opportunity that wasn't previously available. Or does your team's record suggest that you need to make a big change to make a move in the standings. Those things are much more likely to change over the course of the year than your evaluation of the player you're replacing.

The logic of Janish being good enough doesn't really change much. If Cozart (or Fraizer) is ready and has a ceiling that's legitimately higher than Janish, I'd have him up here already whether Janish was OPSing .511 or .711. If the Reds have the resources to go get a guy like Jose Reyes, and he's available, then do it already. Nothing we know about Janish on May 24th is that much different than what we knew on March 24th.

mth123
05-26-2011, 06:21 AM
Tere are really two questions here that we should not conflate:

1.) What is Janish's true talent -- that is, what level of production should we expect moving forward.

Fangraphs actually provides the data to do this logic. It has the ZIPS projections which take what we knew about the guy going in to the season and adjusts based on how he's performed so far. It's projecting Janish to be .230/.295/.330 the rest of the way. At the beginning of the season, it had Janish at .236/.310/.348. So that gives you an idea of how much 150 PA changes things. It sees a 30 point drop in projected OPS. Is that enough to make you go from "acceptable" to "unacceptable"?

It takes basically a whole season -- at least a half season -- for our best projection (using the stats) to change substantially. So if you want to use his results to make the argument, you're not going to be changing things in May.

Now, as with other cases where we're dealing in small samples, scouting should take a bigger role. Watch him hit. Is he doing things differently than last year? Does it look like he's lost ability? I'd be much more inclined, this early in the season, to make a playing time decision based on a scout's advise than on the stats.

2.) Is that level of production acceptable -- should we find a replacement?

There is no one point at which a guy goes from acceptable to not acceptable. Especially using the stat projections, the change is too gradual. But really, it's a question you ask every single day. How do we make the team better? And the answer changes, incrementally, each day. When's the tipping point? Well, unless your assessment of the player changes substantially (which would be a function of scouting at this point) that's more of a function of the available alternatives. Is a minor leaguer ready to go who wasn't when the season started? Is there a trade opportunity that wasn't previously available. Or does your team's record suggest that you need to make a big change to make a move in the standings. Those things are much more likely to change over the course of the year than your evaluation of the player you're replacing.

The logic of Janish being good enough doesn't really change much. If Cozart (or Fraizer) is ready and has a ceiling that's legitimately higher than Janish, I'd have him up here already whether Janish was OPSing .511 or .711. If the Reds have the resources to go get a guy like Jose Reyes, and he's available, then do it already. Nothing we know about Janish on May 24th is that much different than what we knew on March 24th.

.224/.297/.313/.610 in 755 career PAs. There has long been a suspicion by many that he'd wear down and perform worse than his career stats going into 2011 which were "inflated" by being a spot player who was well rested. What we've seen so far this season is providing an indication that those suspicions may be true. I predicted that he'd struggle to have an OPS of .600 and I'll stick to it. Janish is a very good defender at SS who also provides good defense at 2B and 3B when needed. His role is to be a defensive minded utility IF or a "Gary Green" defensive specialist who gets stashed at AAA to be used to plug the defensive hole at SS when the major league starter goes on the DL.

IMO its time to give Cozart a look. He's a good defender who is probably a tick below Janish but better defensively than just about anyone else who has manned SS around here since Barry Larkin went into decline and his AAA line right now is up to .282/.327/.436/.763. He had a horrible start and has been on fire for about 3 weeks or so. He'd probably still prove a below average bat, but he'd be an upgrade while capably manning the position. He'd provide a threat to get an extra base hit once in a while and needs to at least get the pitchers attention on the bases.

To make room, its time to DFA or at least DL Edgar Renteria. He's sporting a paltry .591 OPS himself and is filling a utility IF role without really providing the "utility" part. He's a borderline adequate defender at SS and basically not an option for 2B or 3B. If he isn't providing offense, I'm not sure I see the value of having him on the roster. To top it off, there seems to be a suspicion that he's not a happy camper, though we don't really know anything.

membengal
05-26-2011, 06:23 AM
Yep, it's the pitchers. The puke part is that we have multiple guys who really haven't out hit the pitchers over the course of the last five weeks. Janish, Gomes and Renteria have combined for 250 PAs in that time span of not being much better than the arms at the plate.

They have indeed been giving away a LOT of outs for a long time now this season. Hard to watch as it has evolved, knowing that Cozart is in AAA and a LF upgrade in terms of stick is there as well.

edabbs44
05-26-2011, 08:09 AM
I think people fail to comprehend how bad a .510 OPS is.

I think I can't even comprehend it.

Here's another illustration of how bad Janish has been to date:

Popular belief here is that Gomes "cannot hit RHPs". I think it is agreeable that he isn't very good versus RHPs in his career.

The OPS difference between Gomes vs RHP in his career and Janish this year: .236

The OPS difference between Joey Votto overall career and Gomes vs RHP in his career: .225

Using OPS, Gomes has has more career success vs RHPs over Janish 2011 than Votto has had in his career over Gomes vs RHPs.

westofyou
05-27-2011, 12:24 PM
Paul Janish has a .283 OPS in May in 64 PA.

Puffy
05-27-2011, 12:39 PM
Paul Janish has a .283 OPS in May in 64 PA.

Just wait til he gets stronger!

He is going to be one hell of a hitter when he turns 60 if he keeps making the aforementioned strength gains each winter

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 12:53 PM
It is almost unfathomable how bad he has been.

I really can't backup Gomes at all after his May, and yet his OPS is 40% higher in May than Janish's. That's ridiculous.

westofyou
05-27-2011, 12:54 PM
Just wait til he gets stronger!

He is going to be one hell of a hitter when he turns 60 if he keeps making the aforementioned strength gains each winter

http://www.regenexx.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/middle-aged-elderly-body-building-weight-lifting.jpg

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 12:55 PM
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-xeN5u2OkKYs/TYIv6_g3FAI/AAAAAAAAA8c/Xs97FfsHi5g/s320/izzy-mandelbaum.JPG

CTA513
05-27-2011, 02:33 PM
It is almost unfathomable how bad he has been.

I really can't backup Gomes at all after his May, and yet his OPS is 40% higher in May than Janish's. That's ridiculous.

Gomes should be embarrassed that Janish has more RBIs this month.

westofyou
05-27-2011, 02:44 PM
Gomes should be embarrassed that Janish has more RBIs this month.

True.... BUT (Big But) Jonny Gomes is batting .118/.182/.216 during May, over 100 points better than Janish

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 02:44 PM
Gomes should be embarrassed that Janish has more RBIs this month.

I think that goes w/o saying.

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 02:46 PM
True.... BUT (Big But) Jonny Gomes is batting .118/.182/.216 during May, over 100 points better than Janish

Which really is amazing. It is difficult to fathom how bad these numbers are.

CTA513
05-27-2011, 02:54 PM
True.... BUT (Big But) Jonny Gomes is batting .118/.182/.216 during May, over 100 points better than Janish

.015 better unless you are talking about something else.

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 02:55 PM
.015 better unless you are talking about something else.

.115 better.

CTA513
05-27-2011, 02:58 PM
.115 better.

.015 if we are talking about batting average and I would hope a guy that can hit 20-30 HRs can out OPS a light hitting shortstop.

Brutus
05-27-2011, 03:00 PM
Almost feels like holding hands and folks collectively singing Kumbaya together in celebration of how right they were about Janish. This thread has made me feel awkwardly spiritual :)

_Sir_Charles_
05-27-2011, 03:24 PM
Fine. I'll be the lone outcast. No problem. I STILL feel that he'll right the ship and put together a solid season once it's all said and done. I still think he'll get his 20-ish doubles, 40-60 bb's and hit around .250-ish. But I'm apparently delusional according to most here. Okie-dokie.

reds44
05-27-2011, 03:25 PM
Not a chance.

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 03:26 PM
Fine. I'll be the lone outcast. No problem. I STILL feel that he'll right the ship and put together a solid season once it's all said and done. I still think he'll get his 20-ish doubles, 40-60 bb's and hit around .250-ish. But I'm apparently delusional according to most here. Okie-dokie.

Fairly delusional. He'd have to go on a tear.

westofyou
05-27-2011, 03:29 PM
Fine. I'll be the lone outcast. No problem. I STILL feel that he'll right the ship and put together a solid season once it's all said and done. I still think he'll get his 20-ish doubles, 40-60 bb's and hit around .250-ish. But I'm apparently delusional according to most here. Okie-dokie.

It takes oxygen to feed a fire.

You sir are providing it.

757690
05-27-2011, 03:55 PM
Bruce in 2010: 42 PA - .376 OPS

Phillips in 2010: 79 PA - .341 OPS

Pujols in 2011: 36 PA - .351 OPS


Obviously these guys have a better track record than Janish, but I really don't see what's interesting about a low OPS over a few dozen PA's beyond the bearded lady phenomenon.

edabbs44
05-27-2011, 03:58 PM
Bruce in 2010: 42 PA - .376 OPS

Phillips in 2010: 79 PA - .341 OPS

Pujols in 2011: 36 PA - .351 OPS


Obviously these guys have a better track record than Janish, but I really don't see what's interesting about a low OPS over a few dozen PA's beyond the bearded lady phenomenon.

How about the .500 OPS over 140 or however many PAs?

Quatitos
05-27-2011, 03:59 PM
Fine. I'll be the lone outcast. No problem. I STILL feel that he'll right the ship and put together a solid season once it's all said and done. I still think he'll get his 20-ish doubles, 40-60 bb's and hit around .250-ish. But I'm apparently delusional according to most here. Okie-dokie.

Agreed. Only thing he might miss are the counting stats depending on renteria's playing time.

Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk

757690
05-27-2011, 04:26 PM
How about the .500 OPS over 140 or however many PAs?

Much more meaningful, but still I could probably find even more examples of solid MLB hitters who pulled that off too.

I am beginning to be be bearish about Janish's final numbers, but there still is a lot of evidence that supports him being a league average SS overall over a full season. That would result from him fielding his career numbers and OPSing around .650.

I think he can do that. He might not do that this season, but that doesn't mean he can't.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2011, 04:27 PM
Paul Janish has a .283 OPS in May in 64 PA.

Wow. I knew he had been awful but didn't realize it was that bad.

Quatitos
05-28-2011, 09:45 AM
http://twitter.com/#!/LanceMcAlister


Cozart to DL, Bats down to 20 players, only 8 pitcher--Louisville Courier Journal

Didn't think this deserved its own thread, but thought it would be useful for this conversation.