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View Full Version : Off the wall idea.....that could work?!?!



mattfeet
08-05-2010, 06:10 PM
Ok, so Im sitting here digesting the Chapman-to-the-bullpen idea, and really trying to see how everything with that could potentially unfold. One idea I had, that seriously makes sense in my head, and one that I would not be opposed to seeing, is Chapman groomed to be our closer.

This kid has been LIGHTS OUT in his last 11 2/3 innings for L'ville, and I would not be upset one bit if they ran a bit of an experiment with this idea. How do you guys think this could pan out? Don't get me wrong, Id love to see him be a stud of a starting pitcher, ideally a #1 or #2 obviously. However, I just can't shake the idea of him coming in for the 9th inning, throwing some 103MPH gas and getting us solid saves.

Just shootin' the poop here, let's get some discussion going!

-Matt

zacharync
08-05-2010, 06:12 PM
I like the idea. Won't happen this year though.

ian_madden
08-05-2010, 06:13 PM
I like the idea of him throwing 103 for 7 innings striking out 10 or more a game, and winning several Cy Young awards while representing the Reds, but that is just me.

1990REDS
08-05-2010, 06:15 PM
I like the idea of him throwing 103 for 7 innings striking out 10 or more a game, and winning several Cy Young awards while representing the Reds, but that is just me.

I suggest in the offseason that Ryan Hannigan invest in a extra thick catchers mitt. 103MPH=extremely sore hand.

webbbj
08-05-2010, 06:35 PM
a starter is more valuable than a closer. in a few years if it doesnt look like things will pan out with him as a starter than i think putting him in a closer role would make sense.

DocRed
08-05-2010, 06:36 PM
There are 12 million reasons why that will never happen.

Orodle
08-05-2010, 06:36 PM
Right now he could be a closer. I'm all for having him in relief this season and giving it another shot as a starter next. Like someone mentioned before, starters are much more valuable.

zacharync
08-05-2010, 06:42 PM
What is with the FIRE DUSTY BAKER signature? What don't you like about first place?

Vottomatic
08-05-2010, 07:04 PM
What is with the FIRE DUSTY BAKER signature? What don't you like about first place?

What I don't like is that we're not 5 to 7 games ahead in our division. We should be if not for Dusty.

zacharync
08-05-2010, 07:14 PM
What I don't like is that we're not 5 to 7 games ahead in our division. We should be if not for Dusty.

And so he doesn't deserve credit for anything and you mean to tell me this team is 5-7 games better than the cards?

Please explain how that works?

brm7675
08-05-2010, 07:53 PM
Ok, so Im sitting here digesting the Chapman-to-the-bullpen idea, and really trying to see how everything with that could potentially unfold. One idea I had, that seriously makes sense in my head, and one that I would not be opposed to seeing, is Chapman groomed to be our closer.

This kid has been LIGHTS OUT in his last 11 2/3 innings for L'ville, and I would not be upset one bit if they ran a bit of an experiment with this idea. How do you guys think this could pan out? Don't get me wrong, Id love to see him be a stud of a starting pitcher, ideally a #1 or #2 obviously. However, I just can't shake the idea of him coming in for the 9th inning, throwing some 103MPH gas and getting us solid saves.

Just shootin' the poop here, let's get some discussion going!

-Matt

Why would you want him as your closer? Closers are a dime a dozen, we can use Logan O. as a closer. Chapman has the talent to be a nice 2 or 3 guy in our rotation in 2011, no to any thought of closing.

brm7675
08-05-2010, 07:54 PM
What is with the FIRE DUSTY BAKER signature? What don't you like about first place?

Real simple, this team is better then their record. Dusty alone has cost us probably somewhere between 5-8 wins this season.

Griffey012
08-05-2010, 09:43 PM
What is with the FIRE DUSTY BAKER signature? What don't you like about first place?

Can we save it for a thread directed at Dusty. We don't need every thread to be over ran by Pro-Dusty vs. Anti-Dusty. This was a Chapman as closer conversation.

mattfeet
08-06-2010, 09:24 AM
Why would you want him as your closer? Closers are a dime a dozen, we can use Logan O. as a closer. Chapman has the talent to be a nice 2 or 3 guy in our rotation in 2011, no to any thought of closing.

You're right, the Mariano Rivera's, Trevor Hoffman's (in his prime), K Rod, are a dime a dozen. :rolleyes:


-Matt

markymark69
08-06-2010, 09:57 AM
You're right, the Mariano Rivera's, Trevor Hoffman's (in his prime), K Rod, are a dime a dozen. :rolleyes:


-Matt

Yeah, remember when everyone said oh let's just move Todd Coffey to closer he can handle it. How did that work out? Pitching in the ninth inning trying to save a ballgame and pitching in the 7th or 8th is as, my buddy brm likes to write, is HUGE difference.

Closers are not a dime a dozen. It doesn't mean Logan Ondrusek can't ultimately be the closer, but it's not as simple as just saying "hey, he can close, so we'll just put him there."

mattfeet
08-06-2010, 10:06 AM
I see your point, but how would people ever know if someone is a good closer if they never let them try?

-Matt

Griffey012
08-06-2010, 10:07 AM
Yeah, remember when everyone said oh let's just move Todd Coffey to closer he can handle it. How did that work out? Pitching in the ninth inning trying to save a ballgame and pitching in the 7th or 8th is as, my buddy brm likes to write, is HUGE difference.

Closers are not a dime a dozen. It doesn't mean Logan Ondrusek can't ultimately be the closer, but it's not as simple as just saying "hey, he can close, so we'll just put him there."

Agreed, many many guys have success in a 7th, 8th inning role....very few have that kind of success as a closer. Hitter's bear down and become extremely focused in the 9th and get some adrenaline going. It should be that way in the 7th and 8th but there is just not the same "now or never" mentality cause you still have some more at bat's.

Russ Springer's are a dime a dozen, good closer's are about 15-20 in the entire MLB and then a few others like Gregerson on SDP who have the potential to be good closers.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 10:13 AM
For every Mariano there are 15 Corderos though, and the difference over the course of a season is maybe 1 or 2 wins.

Griffey012
08-06-2010, 10:26 AM
For every Mariano there are 15 Corderos though, and the difference over the course of a season is maybe 1 or 2 wins.

I would have to disagree. I think sabermetric folks don't attach as much of a negative value to a blown save in the 9th inning as they should. When a closer blows the lead in the 9th he is either losing the game for his team, or giving the opposing team at least a 50% chance of winning if he leaves the game tied.

I also do not buy into the WAR calculation for relievers at all. According to WAR Joba Chamberlain has been more valuable than Arthur Rhodes this season. And that is just not true at all.

Most average closers hover around an 80%-85% success rate. While the eliter are about 90%-95%. If a closer gets 40 chances at an 82.5% success rate he is going to blow 7 saves. Half of those are automatic losses and you have a 50% chance of winning on the other half. That's 5 games lost.

An elite closer who saves 92.5% of save chances, blows 3 out of 40. means you lose 2. Not to mention the other times where you are in a tie ball game and bring the elite guy in to shut the other team down vs. bringing in CoCo to come let the other team take the lead.

I know WAR says a great closer is only worth about 2-3 WAR, but it does not take into account any difference between pitching in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings, and I just don't believe thats the case.

DocRed
08-06-2010, 10:41 AM
For every Mariano there are 15 Corderos though, and the difference over the course of a season is maybe 1 or 2 wins.

2 wins solely determined by 1 player, especially a closer, is huge. And if you believe in WAR that equates to somehere between an extra $5-$8 million dollars.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 10:41 AM
Reds have lost 5 games in which cordero has blown a lead in or given up the winning run.

Yankees have lost 2 games that Rivera has either blown or given up the losing run.

Cordero has pitched in 11 more games.

So its maybe 2 games the Yankees have won because of their closer.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 10:42 AM
2 wins solely determined by 1 player, especially a closer, is huge. And if you believe in WAR that equates to somehere between an extra $5-$8 million dollars.

Its not the sole player. Its that the team didnt come back and win. Also if you improve your team by paying a closer less you could likely have improved your team overall by adding more than 2 wins with the 10 or so million you save.

mattfeet
08-06-2010, 10:48 AM
Its not the sole player. Its that the team didnt come back and win. Also if you improve your team by paying a closer less you could likely have improved your team overall by adding more than 2 wins with the 10 or so million you save.

We'll have to agree to disagree. :beerme:


-Matt

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 12:50 PM
And so he doesn't deserve credit for anything and you mean to tell me this team is 5-7 games better than the cards?

Please explain how that works?

Not going to bother responding to you, Mr. 19 posts. :rolleyes:

RedsFanInBama
08-06-2010, 01:23 PM
Real simple, this team is better then their record. Dusty alone has cost us probably somewhere between 5-8 wins this season.
I'd say it's a pretty good manager who has contributed to 61 wins and only cost his team 5-8 games.