Are the Reds Under or Over Achieving?

[Griffey012]

I have seen many many posts mentioning how the Reds should be another 5 or 6 games over .500 for various reasons. Some people make the claim this team is underachieving, I for one cannot look at our team on paper and really have ever thought we would be 13 games over .500 this late in the season. We have definitely overachieved thus far.

This is my view of our lineup on paper

Phillips - meeting around his potential - Wash
OCab - playing about where we all expected him - Wash
Votto - taking the next step to the top tier of 1st baseman in the MLB - Over could be a wash depending on expectations
Rolen - playing like he did from 97-03 which I never ever expected - BIG OVER
Gomes - he was a minor league FA, already done more than I expected - Over
Bruce - was hoping for another step forward, underachieving so far - Under
Stubbs - career ops .765 in the minors, .686 in his rookie year - Under
Ramon - OPS is 60 points higher than last season, clutch hitting - Over
Hanigan - OBP over .400 with some big time hits - Over
Heisey - a rookie with a .955 OPS and many big pinch hits - Over (needs more pt)
Nix - about what he did last year, hot of late - Wash
Cairo - career year - definitely Over
Janish - just keeps hitting and making plays - Over (getting his chance now)

Arroyo - just being Arroyo - Wash
Harang - it's a blessing in disguise he is out - TBD
Leake - 7-3 3.86 ERA straight out of college - Over
Cueto - he is pitching like an Ace - Over
Bailey - didn't build off last year - Under
Wood - guy has a .87 WHIP! - OVER
LeCure/Volquez/Maloney - TBD

Masset - early struggles but is getting it together - Under
Rhodes - dude was an all-star - Over
Coco - 29/35 on saves which is ok, bad in non-save situations, definitely regressed this year - Under
Ondrusek/Smith - rookies throwing lights out - Over/Over
Herrera - didn't have the same effectiveness - Under
Owings - just being Owings - Wash
Lincoln - he just stiiinks - Wash
Bray - had higher hopes but has only thrown 11.2 innings - TBD

Overall numbers:

Wash - 6
Over - 14
Under - 6

Stubbs is really a hard one to gage what kinda expectations but i'll throw him in the Under category.

Combine this with our pre-season projected record of anywhere from 78-84 to 84-78 we are currently on pace for a 93 win season I would say we are definitely over achieving.

I am interested to see the opinions of those who agree we are overachieving and also those who think we are underachieving and why that is....

[arkimadee]

i can't disagree with anything said here.. If Bruce and Stubbs played to their potential, we would be up there with the Yankees as a top team in all of baseball

[Roush's socks]

Only time will tell. It takes perspective to look back and see whether Votto is having a career year, or maybe he rips off 6-7 as good or better over the next 10 years. Or, will Cueto develop into a TOR pitcher or is this the best he gets. Since the Reds have SO many young players you could go on and on.

To answer your question- The Reds have a good thing going and are over-achieving in relation to pre-season expectations.

[RadfordVA]

I agree with pretty much all the assessments here. Also I definitely feel the team is achieving about the most you could hope for. While alot of the players are having better than expected years, I would credit more of it to chemistry and all those intangibles people hate to give credit to because it seems cliche. Being aggressive on the basepaths and lots of comeback wins are qualities of that I feel. If someone wouldve told me at the beginning of the year the reds current position, I wouldve expected huge years from Bruce, Stubbs and Bailey. Despite the nice years by many, Votto is the only one that has taken that leap to absolute stud in the eyes of the entire league. With that I give Walt and Dusty alot of credit for having a vision of a TEAM and seeing it out so far.

[Reds]

I was going to say the 5th spot in the rotation was the difference, but really it's the entire active starting pitching staff. Cueto has been good and Wood and Leake have really stepped up to get this team over .500. If we have a 2-10 pitcher in the 5 spot this team isn't where it is today.

[GIDP]

I think they are playing exactly to their talent levels.

[FlyerFanatic]

overachieving no doubt. mainly because the role player guys are having above average seasons, and votto is playing at an MVP level. they have been riding the momentum all year, and know they have a legit shot to win the central, gonna be a fun 2nd half

[Dale4Saul2Red0]

overachieving no doubt. mainly because the role player guys are having above average seasons, and votto is playing at an MVP level. they have been riding the momentum all year, and know they have a legit shot to win the central, gonna be a fun 2nd half

Overachieving but you have FDB in your sig....... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[FlyerFanatic]

Overachieving but you have FDB in your sig....... hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

whats the saying go? players are winning in spite of dusty? yea..think thats it

[Vottomatic]

Too many stupid losses.

Every year there are some stupid losses, but this year there is an abundance of stupid losses. That is why I think this team could be more games up in the Central.

Players tend to come into their own about their third year or in their late 20's, such as 28, 29, 30 years old. We have alot of players coming into their own and in their prime. And then we have that veteran leadership and ability from guys who have played on championship and contending teams, that expect to win. Our weaker links are the young guys who haven't come into their own.

But the good/excellent starting pitching, to me, is the X factor.

[DocRed]

Ocab, Bailey, Volquez, Harang all under based on what they have done this year so far.

[markymark69]

Too many stupid losses.

Every year there are some stupid losses, but this year there is an abundance of stupid losses. That is why I think this team could be more games up in the Central.

Players tend to come into their own about their third year or in their late 20's, such as 28, 29, 30 years old. We have alot of players coming into their own and in their prime. And then we have that veteran leadership and ability from guys who have played on championship and contending teams, that expect to win. Our weaker links are the young guys who haven't come into their own.

But the good/excellent starting pitching, to me, is the X factor.

But you can argue on the flip side, with all the comeback wins this season, how many of those games the Reds probably shouldn't have won, yes, there have been some stupid losses as you put it, but it's pretty much evened out as far as I'm concerned.

[Elam]

First half the offense over achieved and the pitching underachieved. The offense is more than likely due to sputter in the second half but the pitching has been more consistent. It'll be interesting to see what trends emerge

[Magdal]

Can we just say that the team has ACHIEVED, period? Could be worse, could be better. It is what it is.

[improbus]

I think the Reds are finally equalling their talent level with their on the field play. But, I do have to say that the Reds have 35 MLB players in their organization, which is very new. Look at our Louisville squad and there are 6-7 guys who could easily play in the bigs and a few of them who could be amazing. This season has been an absolute revelation and I am more excited about the Reds and the organization than I have been since 1999.

[Vottomatic]

Can we just say that the team has ACHIEVED, period? Could be worse, could be better. It is what it is.

You can say that. I prefer to say they have "kind of achieved" or "sort of achieved"..........but saying just "achieved" doesn't quite hit the mark. :D ;)

(sarcasm)

[redssince75]

Better than my pre-season expectations, but not as good as my post-May expectations. Like someone said, too many stupid losses. Give us those 2 blown games and a couple of the 1-0 losses, and we'd be sitting pretty.

[TC81190]

I'd say we're breaking about even. We've had great production from the IF and some of the role players, not so much all season from the OF. The rotation from a results standpoint has been pretty good, if overachieving from a peripherals standpoint.

I'd say the offense, particularly the OF, is underachieving, while the rotation has been overachieving to a small degree, even though I think this is their true talent level. So we're about even.

[sivman17]

The Reds over-achieved in May when they went 18-11. In all other months they finished 1 or 2 games over .500. In every month except May I think they played to their level of expectation. The month of May has made this season.

[GIDP]

The Reds over-achieved in May when they went 18-11. In all other months they finished 1 or 2 games over .500. In every month except May I think they played to their level of expectation. The month of May has made this season.

I'd suggest they under achieved in July when they out scored their opponents by 43 runs.

[10xWSChamps]

I think the Reds have certainly over-achieved. But that isn't a bad thing. How many non Reds fans expected them to do this well? Not many.

The key is what you guys do next year. The only place I could see the Reds getting worse at is Votto not having a Pujols-esque season. Also, Rolen doesn't seem like he's ready to regress just yet at this stage of his career, but I would cross my fingers a bit if I was a Reds fan. You can't guarantee anything once a guy goes the 35 year old hump in baseball. If other players (like Cueto for instance) continue to progress then they could also be even better then they were this year. Baseball is hard to predict with the long season and injury potential.