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View Full Version : Bailey is ON FIRE in AAA



arkimadee
08-06-2010, 01:29 AM
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100805&content_id=13084566&vkey=news_t416&fext=.jsp&sid=t416

13.2 straight scoreless innings and 9 strikeouts in tonights game.. Last year he was one of the top pitchers in the majors in the second half.. What do we do with him? I honestly don't know. I don't think you put him in the bullpen.. He's a starter not a bullpen guy.. There is also no way in hell you send Travis Wood back down. Cueto and Arroyo are untouchable. Leake and Volquez have not been as consistent but in no way have they deserved to lose their spot. I know it's a good problem to have but if Bailey is pitching like he did the second half last year, we need him in this rotation for this end of the season run.. IMO ..

What do you all think?

R_Webb18
08-06-2010, 01:43 AM
we have so many good pitchers

Jr's Boy
08-06-2010, 01:46 AM
We gotta get him back in the rotation.Walt will be shutting Leake down at 160IP.So Homer can take his place I would assume.Of course where does Harang fit in?:confused:

R_Webb18
08-06-2010, 01:47 AM
i dont harang has a spot?

R_Webb18
08-06-2010, 01:49 AM
i thought i heard 170 ip maybe more?

R_Webb18
08-06-2010, 01:51 AM
.

DirtyBaker
08-06-2010, 02:00 AM
Cueto
Arroyo
Volquez
Wood
Bailey

would be my rotation (assuming the plan is to shut down leake)

RedsFanInBama
08-06-2010, 02:14 AM
Bailey is going to be ready to pitch for the Reds way before Leake's innings are up. Homer probably won't need more than a couple more starts in AAA.

It's an interesting situation for sure. I think Leake is the clear person for him to replace, but I don't know how it happens.

Reds
08-06-2010, 02:33 AM
6 man rotation anyone?

Zimmers
08-06-2010, 02:40 AM
6 man rotation anyone?



As far fetched as that may have been I don't think that is gonna be too far from the way it's going to go. It might not be a full 6 man rotation but Leakes starts getting skipped more often than not and him doing more long relief would be my guess. It's a great problem to have isn't it??? :cool:

Knightro28
08-06-2010, 02:43 AM
6 man rotation anyone?

I was just thinking that. How often does that happen? What would be the pros/cons of having a 6-man rotation in a pennant chase?

I say keep the rotation as is for now, but give Volquez 3 more starts and if he isn't producing, replace him with Bailey. Put Volquez in the bullpen or send him back to AAA.

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 02:48 AM
Never did I ever imagine in my lifetime the Reds would have a problem of having too many quality pitchers for the starting rotation and bullpen. Honestly, I can't remember any team having this problem, ever. Including the big market teams.

I'm flat out amazed at the depth in this organization right now. The 40 man roster is on the verge of having all kinds of problems. There are guys in the minors that have little, if nothing left to prove, with nowhere to go on the major league roster because of the quality of our major league players. It's absolutely nuts.

Gotta give props to Castellini, Jocketty, predecessors O'Brien and Krivsky, and the entire development and scouting departments. It's been a joy watching this organization build a foundation in scouting and development and provide our major league roster with the likes of Cueto, Leake, Wood, Bailey, Hanigan, Corky Miller (yes he was originally signed by the Reds), Votto, Janish, Ondrusek, Jordan Smith, Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, Francisco...........and any other players I've forgotten that have contributed such as LeCure and Maloney. Simply amazing.

TC81190
08-06-2010, 03:25 AM
Replace Leake. Mike Leake has been mediocre to bad since the beginning of June. He's ready to be shut down.

Reds
08-06-2010, 06:47 AM
I was just thinking that. How often does that happen? What would be the pros/cons of having a 6-man rotation in a pennant chase?

I happens far less than it's discussed, much like the 4 man rotation. Heck, just 3 years ago Jerry Narron was talking about how much he liked the 4 man rotation because of our lack of depth. :cool:

GIDP
08-06-2010, 08:17 AM
The Reds should and probably will look into a 6 man rotation or at least some type of one. The way the pitching has gone lately they hardly ever have a pitcher go less than 6. The Reds pitchers if they make the playoffs other than Arroyo have never thrown as many innings as they probably will be asked to throw. Its going to help Cueto, and Wood a ton to get them 1 or 2 less starts by the end of the year.

Trace's Daddy
08-06-2010, 08:23 AM
I say give Leake one more start, and hopefully he goes out with a bang (a good one); then replace him with Bailey. Put Harang in the pen as long relief. Send Bray back to AAA and bring up Chapman.

Griffey012
08-06-2010, 09:00 AM
There is no point to skipping Leake's starts. Either we let him pitch every 5th day, shut him down or send him down. By skipping his starts you are asking for more performances like the one against Pitt. Leake is a heavy sinker ball pitcher, and everyone knows and sinker baller is better when his arm is a little tired. They mentioned early on in the Pitt game Leake was throwing 92-92 then once he got going in the game he was back to 88-90.

Let Homer dominate 2 more starts, give Leake 2 more starts, if Homer keeps dominating and Leake looks so-so, then get Homer back up and Leake too AAA or shut down.

I am not so sure why everyone is so confident Homer is going to come up and dominate or even pitch well. Don't get me wrong I'd love to see it, but he makes me a little uneasy.

markymark69
08-06-2010, 09:02 AM
As far fetched as that may have been I don't think that is gonna be too far from the way it's going to go. It might not be a full 6 man rotation but Leakes starts getting skipped more often than not and him doing more long relief would be my guess. It's a great problem to have isn't it??? :cool:

I could see it at least in a pseudo sense, maybe not a true six-man rotation, but I believe it will something akin to that. On the days they skip Leake, plug Homer in there. Again it will interesting to see how it plays out. And you're right - it is a great problem to have.

texasdave
08-06-2010, 10:38 AM
There is no point to skipping Leake's starts. Either we let him pitch every 5th day, shut him down or send him down. By skipping his starts you are asking for more performances like the one against Pitt. Leake is a heavy sinker ball pitcher, and everyone knows and sinker baller is better when his arm is a little tired. They mentioned early on in the Pitt game Leake was throwing 92-92 then once he got going in the game he was back to 88-90.


Have Leake throw more between starts if he skips a start. Or have him keep the same schedule and throw a simulated game on the fifth day. It can't be that hard to keep his arm a little weary, can it?

Pony Boy
08-06-2010, 10:42 AM
There is no point to skipping Leake's starts. Either we let him pitch every 5th day, shut him down or send him down. By skipping his starts you are asking for more performances like the one against Pitt. Leake is a heavy sinker ball pitcher, and everyone knows and sinker baller is better when his arm is a little tired. They mentioned early on in the Pitt game Leake was throwing 92-92 then once he got going in the game he was back to 88-90.

Let Homer dominate 2 more starts, give Leake 2 more starts, if Homer keeps dominating and Leake looks so-so, then get Homer back up and Leake too AAA or shut down.

I am not so sure why everyone is so confident Homer is going to come up and dominate or even pitch well. Don't get me wrong I'd love to see it, but he makes me a little uneasy.

Bingo. The Reds arent helping themselves by giving Leake more rests. It is clear that he needs consistent work to be on his game. They should pitch him every fifth day until he hits his max for the season whether that is with the Reds or with the Bats.

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 11:46 AM
Go to a 7 man starting pitching rotation. :D :eek: :p:

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Leake
Harang
Bailey

Heck, let's make it a 9 man rotation and bring up Maloney and LeCure.

Griffey012
08-06-2010, 12:20 PM
Have Leake throw more between starts if he skips a start. Or have him keep the same schedule and throw a simulated game on the fifth day. It can't be that hard to keep his arm a little weary, can it?

But the reason they are skipping him is to limit his innings, therefore they probably are not going to have him throw simulated games and such on the side.

RedsFanInBama
08-06-2010, 12:31 PM
----

ian_madden
08-06-2010, 12:41 PM
I don't put Volquez or Bailey in the Pen, they both have problems throwing strikes from time to time. If you are pitching in the pen you have to be able to throw strikes, and throw strikes right now. This is why we had to wait for Chapman to get comfortable, if he is wild, he doesn't help us. If he has controlled wildness, then we are good.

Krawhitham
08-06-2010, 01:23 PM
Bailey is always the Sandy Koufax of AAA and Brandon Larson at the Major League level

Krawhitham
08-06-2010, 01:24 PM
Go to a 7 man starting pitching rotation. :D :eek: :p:

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Leake
Harang
Bailey

Heck, let's make it a 9 man rotation and bring up Maloney and LeCure.

Throw in Chapman and make it a 10 man rotation

GIDP
08-06-2010, 01:34 PM
Bailey is always the Sandy Koufax of AAA and Brandon Larson at the Major League level

Not really true. He shows dominance at times, but he has been very inconsistent. He also hasnt had many consistent stints in the majors.

Krawhitham
08-06-2010, 01:52 PM
Not really true. He shows dominance at times, but he has been very inconsistent. He also hasnt had many consistent stints in the majors.

Larson had a hand full of impressive games with the big team too

Larson was only given 109 game over 4 seasons so he didn't have many consistent stints in the majors either

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 01:58 PM
Throw in Chapman and make it a 10 man rotation

Good thinking. Let's bring up Klinker to and make it an 11 man rotation. Can we get Zach Stewart back? :D

GIDP
08-06-2010, 02:05 PM
Larson had a hand full of impressive games with the big team too

Larson was only given 109 game over 4 seasons so he didn't have many consistent stints in the majors either

No but Larson was also 25 when he got his shot. Bailey just turned 24.

redssince75
08-06-2010, 02:15 PM
Bailey is always the Sandy Koufax of AAA and Brandon Larson at the Major League level

Yeah, call me when he is on FIRE for the Reds.

Brisco
08-06-2010, 02:30 PM
Here's an idea... send Mike Leake to the Pen for the rest of the year. Take a look at his pitch count stats (below) ... his ERA doubles at pitch 31 from 3.05 to 7.40.

Rather than use up the rest of his 160 innings starting let him come in as an RP. It allows us to get a view of Bailey before the 31 August deadline, and keeps Mike up with the team to be a prat of the pennant race, which he has earned.


Pitch 1-15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.2 19 7 7 1 3 8 3.78 1.32 .306
Pitch 16-30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 22 8 7 4 8 13 3.05 1.45 .282
Pitch 31-45 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 18 17 17 2 7 15 7.40 1.21 .231
Pitch 46-60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.1 18 2 1 0 7 15 0.47 1.29 .243
Pitch 61-75 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.0 21 8 7 2 5 8 3.00 1.24 .269
Pitch 76-90 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.2 21 6 4 2 10 11 2.30 1.98 .333
Pitch 91-105 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 13 8 8 2 3 8 6.35 1.41 .295
Pitch 106-20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1 3 3 1 1 0 40.50 3.00 .333

davereds24
08-06-2010, 03:26 PM
Bailey is always the Sandy Koufax of AAA and Brandon Larson at the Major League level

Homer's AAA numbers are actually quite average for someone with his talent.

texasdave
08-06-2010, 03:29 PM
But the reason they are skipping him is to limit his innings, therefore they probably are not going to have him throw simulated games and such on the side.

So, instead, they limit his innings. But in the limited innings they get from him he is ineffective because he feels too strong. That makes no sense either.

Krawhitham
08-06-2010, 04:34 PM
Here's an idea... send Mike Leake to the Pen for the rest of the year. Take a look at his pitch count stats (below) ... his ERA doubles at pitch 31 from 3.05 to 7.40.

Rather than use up the rest of his 160 innings starting let him come in as an RP. It allows us to get a view of Bailey before the 31 August deadline, and keeps Mike up with the team to be a prat of the pennant race, which he has earned.


Pitch 1-15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.2 19 7 7 1 3 8 3.78 1.32 .306
Pitch 16-30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 22 8 7 4 8 13 3.05 1.45 .282
Pitch 31-45 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 18 17 17 2 7 15 7.40 1.21 .231
Pitch 46-60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.1 18 2 1 0 7 15 0.47 1.29 .243
Pitch 61-75 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.0 21 8 7 2 5 8 3.00 1.24 .269
Pitch 76-90 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.2 21 6 4 2 10 11 2.30 1.98 .333
Pitch 91-105 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 13 8 8 2 3 8 6.35 1.41 .295
Pitch 106-20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1 3 3 1 1 0 40.50 3.00 .333

You do not send Leake to the pen until Homer has proven he can do it with the big team. As it stand now Homer is a 5.52 ERA pitcher for the season and a 5.46 pitcher for his career

Krawhitham
08-06-2010, 04:36 PM
Homer's AAA numbers are actually quite average for someone with his talent.

Maybe his talent is not as great as everyone thinks

But he had a 2.71 ERA with 82K & 27BB last season in AAA

redleg1984
08-06-2010, 05:04 PM
Yeah, call me when he is on FIRE for the Reds.

Bailey always does this he is lights out in AAA and with the big kids he is terrible.... trade him or put him in the bullpen

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 05:18 PM
I believe Homer is on the trading block. He's being showcased in triple A.

AintlifeGrande
08-06-2010, 05:48 PM
I would love to see Chapman in Sept. with the 4 game series in St Louis.I'm sure Pujols and Holiday wont though.The division could be settled by then.

TC81190
08-06-2010, 05:51 PM
I believe Homer is on the trading block. He's being showcased in triple A.
I would doubt it. If he was being showcased, other teams would want to see results at the MLB level, seeing as that's the highest level he's reached. Plus we've seen the AAA success before, just not consistent MLB success. Nothing new here.

He would get claimed anyway.

Vottomatic
08-06-2010, 06:37 PM
I would doubt it. If he was being showcased, other teams would want to see results at the MLB level, seeing as that's the highest level he's reached. Plus we've seen the AAA success before, just not consistent MLB success. Nothing new here.

He would get claimed anyway.

Yep, and then that team would have to make a deal with us.

Griffey012
08-06-2010, 07:07 PM
So, instead, they limit his innings. But in the limited innings they get from him he is ineffective because he feels too strong. That makes no sense either.

I agree it makes no sense. That's why I suggest we either keep runnings him out there every 5th day and if he is not pitching well enough to stay in the rotation we send him to AAA til he gets around his 170 IP.

Leake is a lot like Arroyo, if you give Arroyo extra days off he's gonna get ripped.

Knightro28
08-06-2010, 08:56 PM
Here's an idea... send Mike Leake to the Pen for the rest of the year. Take a look at his pitch count stats (below) ... his ERA doubles at pitch 31 from 3.05 to 7.40.

Rather than use up the rest of his 160 innings starting let him come in as an RP. It allows us to get a view of Bailey before the 31 August deadline, and keeps Mike up with the team to be a prat of the pennant race, which he has earned.


Pitch 1-15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.2 19 7 7 1 3 8 3.78 1.32 .306
Pitch 16-30 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 22 8 7 4 8 13 3.05 1.45 .282
Pitch 31-45 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20.2 18 17 17 2 7 15 7.40 1.21 .231
Pitch 46-60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19.1 18 2 1 0 7 15 0.47 1.29 .243
Pitch 61-75 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.0 21 8 7 2 5 8 3.00 1.24 .269
Pitch 76-90 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.2 21 6 4 2 10 11 2.30 1.98 .333
Pitch 91-105 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.1 13 8 8 2 3 8 6.35 1.41 .295
Pitch 106-20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1 3 3 1 1 0 40.50 3.00 .333

Looks to me (I could be wrong since there aren't any categories showing what means what) that his WHIP and his BAA are at their best in pitches 31-45. But ERA is best in pitches 46-60. So I'm not sure how this helps your case or hurts it, but just a couple things to think about.

Maybe keep him as a starter, let him throw 30 pitches, then have janish pitch and play one down in the field while Leake runs to the bullpen and throws 15 quick pitches, then comes back for the rest of the game?

TheBigLebowski
08-06-2010, 09:16 PM
Have faith in The Homer. I have and always will defend Homer. He is going to be a danged good pitcher in the bigs....maybe his dominance will start when we recall him, or maybe it will start next season....but the time is coming.

Soooo awesome to formulate mythical 11 man rotations.....anyone remember Eric Milton, Steve Parris, Dave Burba, etc? How amazing is it to have pitching talent and depth. Wow.

10xWSChamps
08-07-2010, 12:34 AM
In the past few years the Reds have reminded me of the recent Marlins; two teams with a lot of young talent in the lineup and rotation, but despite that talent they never put it together. Either the players didn't live up to expectations, underperformed or were very streaky.

I think the Marlins are the same way but the Reds seem to have gotten over that hump this year. But Homer Bailey still fits that mold IMO. I saw someone in this thread say his career ERA was 5.7 and that kind of surprises me, he certainly has better stuff and more talent then that ERA would suggest but he just can't get over that hump from prospect-who-shows-flashes into a legit MLB player.

10xWSChamps
08-07-2010, 12:41 AM
Also, Homer reminds me a lot of the former Card Anthony Reyes. Reyes looked like he had Cy Young stuff for one or two games, then ran off a string of 3-4 pretty bad games. Some years he started off great then just got injured and was awful to start the next year. Seemed like he kept starting over from square 1 every year and never learned anything.

Personally I think it would be in the best interests of the Reds to trade Bailey while they can still get something for him. The Cardinals should have traded Reyes away about two years before they did.

bagz
08-07-2010, 09:52 AM
I say give Leake one more start, and hopefully he goes out with a bang (a good one); then replace him with Bailey. Put Harang in the pen as long relief. Send Bray back to AAA and bring up Chapman.

Hi everybody 1st post here. Fan since early 70's. I agree with everything you've said here. Mike Leake has had an amazing rookie year and more than exceeded our expectations for this year. I think it's important for him and the Reds for him to end his incredible year with a strong outing. Homer Bailey might not pitch as well against mlb batters as he's doing right now in AAA but still could be very effective.If he's not effective as a starter he could be put in long relief.
:thumbup:

Vottomatic
08-07-2010, 02:10 PM
Also, Homer reminds me a lot of the former Card Anthony Reyes. Reyes looked like he had Cy Young stuff for one or two games, then ran off a string of 3-4 pretty bad games. Some years he started off great then just got injured and was awful to start the next year. Seemed like he kept starting over from square 1 every year and never learned anything.

Personally I think it would be in the best interests of the Reds to trade Bailey while they can still get something for him. The Cardinals should have traded Reyes away about two years before they did.

I agree about trading Bailey while he's still worth something. And I think the Reds might be showcasing him in triple A for a future trade. If Bailey continues to rack at Louisville, they will be able to point to his former #1 pick status, great second half last year, great rehab stint in triple A this year and young age as reasons that his value is still high.

People on this board will shoot down any ability to trade Bailey this year because he'll have to go through waivers. But not if he's the return on someone the Reds claim off waivers. :eek: