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View Full Version : Yonder Alonso makes the BA Hotsheet



dougdirt
08-06-2010, 03:52 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2010/2610479.html

Why He's Here: .478/.600/.913 (11-for-23), 5 R, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 7 BB, 2 SO
The Scoop: Something just wasn't right with Alonso early in the season. After not looking quite right in the Arizona Fall League, Alonso struggled through the season's first three months, and his numbers were down to .224/.269/.328 on June 26. Maybe he wasn't fully recovered after suffering from a broken hamate bone last year. Whatever it was, Alonso has looked more like the dynamic hitter the Reds drafted in the first round two years ago. Since June 27, Alonso has hit .378/.444/.630 in 151 plate appearances, showing an improved approach at the plate and more power. Yet much like Matt LaPorta with the Brewers two years ago, Alonso is blocked at first base by Joey Votto, which means Alonso could become a valuable trade chip this offseason.

Neftali Soto also made an appearance, but not in a good way.

Neftali Soto, 1b, Reds: Soto's return to high Class A was supposed to give him a chance to regain his confidence after a rough 2009 season. And he was working on catching as well, which would add to his prospect value. Soto hasn't picked up a catcher's mitt since June 1, and he hasn't played third base since before that. As a first baseman, Soto will depend more on his bat, which means this is a bad time for a slump. Soto hasn't posted a .300 on-base percentage since May, and he's 1-for-18 (.056) in the past week for high Class A Lynchburg.

Also, from the Chat:
Dan (Work): Yorman Rodriguez, best 17/18 year old in baseball? .340 average, .808 ops, potential top 100 prospect next list? If not him who is the best 17/18 year old?


Ben Badler: I don't see him as a top 100 guy. He's a great athlete but the approach has a long, long ways to go before I get that excited about him. Raw Pioneer League numbers need a heavy discount for hitters because of the offensive environment of that league. The second part of your question is easy: Mike Trout (18) and Bryce Harper (17), although if you want a 17-year-old in pro ball right now, it's either Miguel Sano or Gary Sanchez.

Eric the Red
08-06-2010, 10:54 PM
It looks more and more evident that Alonso will be traded this offseason. This may not be the appropriate topic for this but being in the National League is a major competitive disadvantage for the Reds. If we are in the American League, Alonso and Francisco for that matter have a much better chance to become great big leaguers. Having a DH in one league and not the other is the dumbest rule in all of sports in my opinion. But, because they are blocked position wise it puts the front office and the those particular players in a precarious situation. I really like the potential Yonder Alonso has shown and would love to see him shine as a Red for at least six years but the odds of that occurring are low.

REDblooded
08-06-2010, 11:05 PM
If we end up having to trade Alonso, the return had better be a top SS/3b/2b prospect...

GIDP
08-06-2010, 11:32 PM
Whats really kind of annoying is that of all the players I would like to target in a trade most of those teams already have a 1B.

camisadelgolf
08-06-2010, 11:41 PM
If you want to deal Yonder Alonso for a shortstop, here are your options right now:
Baltimore - no shortstop prospects
Chicago (AL) - can Brent Lillibridge stick at short?
Colorado - is Chris Nelson legit? can he stick at short?
Detroit - no shortstop prospects
Minnesota - Trevor Plouffe would be the target, but he's not exactly the most exciting prospect
Tamba Bay - Reid Brignac might make some sense
Toronto - no shortstop prospects

cinreds21
08-06-2010, 11:43 PM
Out of all those guys I would love to have Brignac. Other than that, not so much.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 11:45 PM
I dont think any SS thats obtainable is going to be better than Cozart, especially at league minimum

I think the only place the Reds are going to get fair trade value is getting some type of pitcher, but heck looking at the current staff I dont know if there is a lot to go for. Greinke is a strong possible target since he likely goes on the block this offseason. If KC would go for Yonder and a few other prospects hes basically the only guy I find a direct fit, and that being said I dont even know if they would like Yonder. For one they are stupid and would rather have someone who hit like Chris Valaika instead, and 2 I dont know if they even need a DH/1b

Eric the Red
08-06-2010, 11:46 PM
If you want to deal Yonder Alonso for a shortstop, here are your options right now:
Baltimore - no shortstop prospects
Chicago (AL) - can Brent Lillibridge stick at short?
Colorado - is Chris Nelson legit? can he stick at short?
Detroit - no shortstop prospects
Minnesota - Trevor Plouffe would be the target, but he's not exactly the most exciting prospect
Tamba Bay - Reid Brignac might make some sense
Toronto - no shortstop prospects

Nobody that gets me excited.

I'm not completely ruling out a Joey Votto to left field option in the offseason though I'm doubtful the Reds would ask him to do it.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 11:47 PM
Nobody that gets me excited.

I'm not completely ruling out a Joey Votto to left field option in the offseason though I'm doubtful the Reds would ask him to do it.

I think if they paid him a ton of money and gave him a LTC he would be more willing. :laugh:

camisadelgolf
08-06-2010, 11:47 PM
Out of all those guys I would love to have Brignac. Other than that, not so much.
A lot of people don't like the idea because the Reds already have Zack Cozart. Honestly, I can't blame them. But if I were the Reds, I would wait for Alonso's stock to elevate and hope team's needs change during that time because if you deal Alonso for a shortstop right now, you're just not going to get anyone close to ML-ready.

Eric the Red
08-06-2010, 11:52 PM
I think if they paid him a ton of money and gave him a LTC he would be more willing. :laugh:

Great point. I do think he gets a nice contract after the season. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Votto play some outfield in the minors. If the Reds are as high on Alonso as I am they'll at least talk to Joey about a move.

membengal
08-06-2010, 11:58 PM
I would happily take Jake Arrieta from Baltimore for Alonso.

GIDP
08-06-2010, 11:59 PM
Great point. I do think he gets a nice contract after the season. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Votto play some outfield in the minors. If the Reds are as high on Alonso as I am they'll at least talk to Joey about a move.
I think if Votto knows his career is secured he would be much more open to doing something for the betterment of the team. I think if hes going year to year I wouldnt blame him for being a little against it other wise.

HokieRed
08-07-2010, 12:01 AM
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'll say I think the Reds--and RZ--will come to regret a trade of Yonder Alonso.

GIDP
08-07-2010, 12:03 AM
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'll say I think the Reds--and RZ--will come to regret a trade of Yonder Alonso.

I think they would probably be hard pressed to find a better LF and first base solution for at least Alonsos pre arb years.

WebScorpion
08-07-2010, 01:41 AM
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I'll say I think the Reds--and RZ--will come to regret a trade of Yonder Alonso.
I agree that he will likely become a monster hitter, but what other choice do we have? You don't move MVP-caliber players to make room for a maybe who certainly will never field the position as well as Votto. Alonso is destined to be a DH somwhere...maybe the greatest DH ever, but we don't currently have that position on our roster. :dunno: That said, I think our best bet is to wait until he is knocking down the door to the Major Leagues. At least we have a better chance of maximizing his value.

RedsFanInBama
08-07-2010, 01:52 AM
Might be a good idea and try to give Joey a new contract right now before he wins the MVP. Not that his agent doesn't already know he's going to get to stick it to someone, MVP award or not.

mth123
08-07-2010, 02:06 AM
The Reds are backed into a corner with Alonso. Positionally he's as far down the food chain as can be. There really isn't a reason for a team to deal an equal prospect at a more scarce position. The market is pretty limited because most teams have an Alonso of their own. The few that don't can see that the Reds have no where to play him. The Reds are going to need to show that there is another option by giving Alonso a crack at LF. Its risky because if he falters the Reds bargaining position is weakened, but if he can be a little successful with the bat and at least be Dunn or Gomes out there defensively, they might strengthen their position substantially. Its not really the kind of risk to take in a penant push, but defensively the team is pretty weak in LF anyway and nobody in the OF hits much right now. It might be worth a shot.

cinreds21
08-07-2010, 02:10 AM
The Reds are backed into a corner with Alonso. Positionally he's as far down the food chain as can be. There really isn't a reason for a team to deal an equal prospect at a more scarce position. The market is pretty limited because most teams have an Alonso of their own. The few that don't can see that the Reds have no where to play him. The Reds are going to need to show that there is another option by giving Alonso a crack at LF. Its risky because if he falters the Reds bargaining position is weakened, but if he can be a little successful with the bat and at least be Dunn or Gomes out there defensively, they might strengthen their position substantially. Its not really the kind of risk to take in a penant push, but defensively the team is pretty weak in LF anyway and nobody in the OF hits much right now. It might be worth a shot.

I believe, not sure, part of the reason they tried him in left this year was to boost his trade value up. Either they could bring him up as an outfielder or, have him "able" to play two positions, making him more enticing to interested teams.

mth123
08-07-2010, 02:14 AM
I believe, not sure, part of the reason they tried him in left this year was to boost his trade value up. Either they could bring him up as an outfielder or, have him "able" to play two positions, making him more enticing to interested teams.

Its not as much to entice as it is to show that keeping both he an Votto is a viable option. If teams think that Alonso has no future on the Reds because he's blocked by Votto, they'll lowball the Reds and the Reds will have little choice. If teams think that the Reds have a reason to just keep Alonso unless they get a comparable player, the offers should improve.

cinreds21
08-07-2010, 02:25 AM
Its not as much to entice as it is to show that keeping both he an Votto is a viable option. If teams think that Alonso has no future on the Reds because he's blocked by Votto, they'll lowball the Reds and the Reds will have little choice. If teams think that the Reds have a reason to just keep Alonso unless they get a comparable player, the offers should improve.

I don't think they'll get "lowballed" However, you could shut me up by pointing out the Wilson Ramos/Capps deal saying that Minnesota over-payed for Capps because they didn't "need" Ramos because of having Mauer. It'll be interesting. I've said before that I would not be fully opposed to a Alonso/Brignac swap. I have just tried to think of the "best" situation for Alonso (as for as teams' needs) and the Reds' needs (SS is the biggest hole I can think of) and that's the only real AL team that matches up.
I don't want to trade Yonder for a reliever in no way, shape or form. The only other "possibility" would be an outfielder. We could do it for a left-fielder who's in a contract year next season (giving Frazier an entire second year in Triple-A to be ready to take over in 2012. That's just what I think. I may be way off but I don't think so.

RED VAN HOT
08-07-2010, 02:29 AM
I see no reason to trade Alonso now. I agree with those who see the current return in a trade as limited. On the other hand, if next year he continues to put up the numbers he has shown lately, he will be a valuable trading chip in July when the Reds are looking to bolster the roster in a specific area.

powersackers
08-07-2010, 04:32 AM
Can anyone tell me how a young/athletic man can not play the outfield? Or be trained to do so. I hate to lose his potential bat, but if he's unable to grasp the ability to play near league average LF, then I don't really want him.

dougdirt
08-07-2010, 04:41 AM
Can anyone tell me how a young/athletic man can not play the outfield? Or be trained to do so. I hate to lose his potential bat, but if he's unable to grasp the ability to play near league average LF, then I don't really want him.
Some guys just aren't fast enough. Pure and simple. Has nothing to do with inability to learn it or not.

camisadelgolf
08-07-2010, 04:49 AM
Yonder Alonso's body type will never allow for him to be a reasonable option in the outfield. The good news is that he'll be able to produce more power than his bigger skeptics ever predicted. I may not be qualified to say this, but he's got a better future than Sean Casey ever did.

mth123
08-07-2010, 05:20 AM
I don't think they'll get "lowballed" However, you could shut me up by pointing out the Wilson Ramos/Capps deal saying that Minnesota over-payed for Capps because they didn't "need" Ramos because of having Mauer. It'll be interesting. I've said before that I would not be fully opposed to a Alonso/Brignac swap. I have just tried to think of the "best" situation for Alonso (as for as teams' needs) and the Reds' needs (SS is the biggest hole I can think of) and that's the only real AL team that matches up.
I don't want to trade Yonder for a reliever in no way, shape or form. The only other "possibility" would be an outfielder. We could do it for a left-fielder who's in a contract year next season (giving Frazier an entire second year in Triple-A to be ready to take over in 2012. That's just what I think. I may be way off but I don't think so.

Many disagree, but I'd deal Alonso straight up for Brignac and Brignac would add a lot to the Reds for many years whether he becomes the SS, is a LH hitting Supersub backing up several players who hit from the right side at 2B, SS and 3B or if he is heir to Phillips say in 2012 as finances make it necessary to let him go to afford escalating salaries for Votto, Cueto, Bruce and Volquez. Problem is the Rays know that Brignac is a viable every day player in the MI and probably has more value than Alonso, so I doubt that they would do that deal.

powersackers
08-07-2010, 05:39 AM
Yonder Alonso's body type will never allow for him to be a reasonable option in the outfield. The good news is that he'll be able to produce more power than his bigger skeptics ever predicted. I may not be qualified to say this, but he's got a better future than Sean Casey ever did.

Albert Pujols played 309 games in the OF while McGwire was entrenched at first base in 2001-02. AP is 6'3" 230, YA is 6'2" 210. Are Yonder's legs too short or what exactly is a slow body type considering my Pujols comparison?

Votto is 6'3" 230 yet there are those that think he should play the outfield.

There are over About 303,000 results for "speed training" on Google. Go read up Yonder.

GIDP
08-07-2010, 07:47 AM
I would have a very hard time believing Yonder would be so much worse that he would be worse than the worst defending LFer. If hes Gomes or Lee bad, then surely his bat would be at least good enough to have a positive value over all. Making league minimum makes it worth doing.

As long as Yonder keeps his OPS over .800 hes going to have value as long as he isnt as bad as the worst LF defensively. Its not goin to be a ton of value, but thats if hes an .800 OPS bat playing near league worst defensive LF D.

Pony Boy
08-07-2010, 11:18 AM
Can anyone tell me how a young/athletic man can not play the outfield? Or be trained to do so. I hate to lose his potential bat, but if he's unable to grasp the ability to play near league average LF, then I don't really want him.

I think the best way to illustrate the problem with Alonso to LF is still think about Sean Casey playing in the outfield. That would be ugly.

redsfandan
08-07-2010, 12:05 PM
Many disagree, but I'd deal Alonso straight up for Brignac and Brignac would add a lot to the Reds for many years whether he becomes the SS, is a LH hitting Supersub backing up several players who hit from the right side at 2B, SS and 3B or if he is heir to Phillips say in 2012 as finances make it necessary to let him go to afford escalating salaries for Votto, Cueto, Bruce and Volquez. Problem is the Rays know that Brignac is a viable every day player in the MI and probably has more value than Alonso, so I doubt that they would do that deal.
The time to trade for Brignac would've been before this year (so we wouldn't have a more expensive and probably lesser ss in Oldlando). At this point I'd rather take my chances with Janish and Cozart next year. And I wouldn't bet against the Reds extending Phillips. Plus I think Brignac could replace Bartlett at short for the Rays next year anyway.

I would have a very hard time believing Yonder would be so much worse that he would be worse than the worst defending LFer. If hes Gomes or Lee bad, then surely his bat would be at least good enough to have a positive value over all. Making league minimum makes it worth doing.
Actually the money doesn't make it worth doing imo. Do we even have any expensive outfielders right now? Alonso makes $500K this year, Gomes $800K. Even IF Gomes reaches all of his playing time bonuses that's at most another $465K. Some of that money is already in the bank. So, we may be talking a difference of around $300K over the rest of the year. That's not much of a savings.

As long as Yonder keeps his OPS over .800 hes going to have value as long as he isnt as bad as the worst LF defensively. Its not goin to be a ton of value, but thats if hes an .800 OPS bat playing near league worst defensive LF D.
And I wouldn't bank on Alonso having an .800 OPS as a rookie. He might but even that would be alot to ask of a rookie.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2010, 12:37 PM
Albert Pujols played 309 games in the OF while McGwire was entrenched at first base in 2001-02. AP is 6'3" 230, YA is 6'2" 210. Are Yonder's legs too short or what exactly is a slow body type considering my Pujols comparison?

Votto is 6'3" 230 yet there are those that think he should play the outfield.

There are over About 303,000 results for "speed training" on Google. Go read up Yonder.

This. I just don't get this whole argument that he's not fast enough. He's not Bengie Molina for pete's sake. He CAN run. He CAN learn the OF. But he's got to be able to make up for a lack of speed by maximizing his route taking skills, his reading the ball off the bat skills, plus working on improving his speed. I just don't get this only being able to play first base garbage. We've had piss-poor LF defenders since I can't remember when. If Yonder's bat is legit...put him in LF, leave him there, let him learn it. Putting him out there occasionally isn't going to give him the reps he needs to learn that stuff I mentioned earlier....speed or no speed.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2010, 12:40 PM
I think the best way to illustrate the problem with Alonso to LF is still think about Sean Casey playing in the outfield. That would be ugly.

Not if Casey had the bat Yonder may. He hasn't shown it yet, but I think the power potential of Alonso is miles past Casey.

redsfandan
08-07-2010, 01:04 PM
This. I just don't get this whole argument that he's not fast enough. He's not Bengie Molina for pete's sake. He CAN run. He CAN learn the OF. But he's got to be able to make up for a lack of speed by maximizing his route taking skills, his reading the ball off the bat skills, plus working on improving his speed. I just don't get this only being able to play first base garbage. We've had piss-poor LF defenders since I can't remember when. If Yonder's bat is legit...put him in LF, leave him there, let him learn it. Putting him out there occasionally isn't going to give him the reps he needs to learn that stuff I mentioned earlier....speed or no speed.
So you'd be willing to do the same thing that the Reds did with Adam Dunn?

dougdirt
08-07-2010, 01:11 PM
This. I just don't get this whole argument that he's not fast enough. He's not Bengie Molina for pete's sake. He CAN run. He CAN learn the OF. But he's got to be able to make up for a lack of speed by maximizing his route taking skills, his reading the ball off the bat skills, plus working on improving his speed. I just don't get this only being able to play first base garbage. We've had piss-poor LF defenders since I can't remember when. If Yonder's bat is legit...put him in LF, leave him there, let him learn it. Putting him out there occasionally isn't going to give him the reps he needs to learn that stuff I mentioned earlier....speed or no speed.

Have you ever seen him?

While I am fully in the 'play him in LF every day from now through the AAA playoffs' camp, there seems to be a lot of people out there saying that he can do it and that he can get faster, but I want to know how many of those guys have actually seen him play.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2010, 01:22 PM
So you'd be willing to do the same thing that the Reds did with Adam Dunn?

Until we give him a lengthy opportunity in left we'll never know.


personally, I'd prefer we trand him to fill a need in either the big club or on the farm.

_Sir_Charles_
08-07-2010, 01:23 PM
Have you ever seen him?

While I am fully in the 'play him in LF every day from now through the AAA playoffs' camp, there seems to be a lot of people out there saying that he can do it and that he can get faster, but I want to know how many of those guys have actually seen him play.

Twice, but at 1st.

cinreds21
08-07-2010, 03:34 PM
Have you ever seen him?

While I am fully in the 'play him in LF every day from now through the AAA playoffs' camp, there seems to be a lot of people out there saying that he can do it and that he can get faster, but I want to know how many of those guys have actually seen him play.

i've seen him. I didn't see him play much outfield this year because he was only in Double-A for a short time but the results weren't that great. I feel bad talking bad about Yonder because he's a great guy. It's just like trying to stick Big Papi out in left, it really is.

RED VAN HOT
08-07-2010, 09:59 PM
Yonder Alonso's body type will never allow for him to be a reasonable option in the outfield. The good news is that he'll be able to produce more power than his bigger skeptics ever predicted. I may not be qualified to say this, but he's got a better future than Sean Casey ever did.

I know that I am not qualified to disagree, but I can't help but point out that early on Sean Casey had one hell of a future, with size, power, a great batting stroke, and good plate discipline. For reasons I never fully understood (perhaps injuries), the power tailed off. Hopefully, Alonso can stay healthy going forward.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-07-2010, 10:06 PM
I have seen him and he's slow. Very slow. Easy DP kinda slow. Should never be a LF'er.

With Dunn and Votto at the time, I was perplexed by the pick of Alonso and still am.

He makes a great insurance policy if something happens to Votto in the next year or two, but that be it. I agree that he doesn't hold a ton of trade value.

camisadelgolf
08-08-2010, 12:47 PM
I know that I am not qualified to disagree, but I can't help but point out that early on Sean Casey had one hell of a future, with size, power, a great batting stroke, and good plate discipline. For reasons I never fully understood (perhaps injuries), the power tailed off. Hopefully, Alonso can stay healthy going forward.
Yes, it was an injury. Sean Casey's left shoulder prevented from realizing his full potential in the power department. Besides, his upper body never developed as much as Alonso's has, and Alonso just keeps getting bigger.

KoryMac5
08-08-2010, 01:38 PM
I have seen Alonso play LF folks and he is creeper slow. The comparison of Casey playing LF is not spot on but pretty close. Alonso would need a few years of working everyday in the OF to even be considered remotely acceptable for the position.

Pony Boy
08-09-2010, 10:43 AM
Not if Casey had the bat Yonder may. He hasn't shown it yet, but I think the power potential of Alonso is miles past Casey.

I think you missed my point. The comparison that I made was strictly about speed not bats.

But since you brought it up, at the same point in their respective careers I would give a Casey a big edge at the plate over Yonder.

When Casey was Yonder's age he had a career minor league OPS over 1.0, while Yonder is at .821 between his many stops. Obviously Yonder's hamate bone has a lot to do with that, but you still have to give Casey the edge.

I think Yonder has a bright future, but it is by no means a lock that he will have a better MLB career than Casey. If Yonder's power doesnt develop at the big league level he is going to look an awful lot like the post-2000 Sean Casey. A high-average, low-power hitter playing only adequate defense at 1B.