MLBTR: The Reds' 2011 Rotation

[nate]

An article (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/the-reds-2011-rotation.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook) rehashing some of the points we've discussed here. Not a bad summary.


The Reds have an abundance of major league starters under team control in 2011. Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Travis Wood are not yet arbitration-eligible and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. All except Wood, a 2005 second-rounder, ranked among Baseball America's top 100 prospects before they became prominent major leaguers. That's an entire rotation's worth of former top prospects and they're all still cheap.

[LincolnparkRed]

Add Arroyo for wily vet presence then try to make Bailey your closer and you are set for next year pitching wise. Ondrusek, Bray, Masset, Rhodes (if he plays), Smith, and Fisher to round out the pen.

You still have Chapman waiting in the wings.

Think of any SS's you want for next year. Teams will be burning up the phones asking about pitching this winter

[BrooklynRedz]

Add Arroyo for wily vet presence then try to make Bailey your closer and you are set for next year pitching wise. Ondrusek, Bray, Masset, Rhodes (if he plays), Smith, and Fisher to round out the pen.

You still have Chapman waiting in the wings.

Think of any SS's you want for next year. Teams will be burning up the phones asking about pitching this winter

Replace Arroyo with Webb.

[OnBaseMachine]

Replace Arroyo with Webb.

That's the second time I've seen you mention Brandon Webb and the Reds. Are you hearing something? ;)

[bucksfan2]

I think Webb does make some sense. He is from this region, his former pitching coach is Bryan Price, and its a Jocketty type move.

I have a feeling that there will be a trade this off season involving one of the Reds younger pitchers. Don't know who but it seems to me the Reds have a glut of young pitching and some holes elsewhere.

[Johnny Footstool]

Brandon Webb, whose shoulder is held together with baling wire and duct tape? I'd rather not count on him, especially as a replacement for Arroyo's wily veteran presence.

[Kc61]

With the performance of Carpenter last night, it shows how important a true Number 1 stopper is in a pennant race.

Reds will have to decide whether to re-up on Arroyo or whether to go into the market for a free agent pitcher of even higher caliber.

With that Number 1 guy, the rest of the rotation would come from Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, Wood.

If the Reds are in a spending mode, they could exercise the Arroyo option AND get a free agent pitcher.

In any event, I'd expect Harang to be gone and possibly one of the younger pitchers if there are trades.

The bullpen also has great depth for next season with the good performances of Ondrusek, Smith, Bray added to the veterans Cordero, Rhodes (if he stays), Masset. There's also Fisher, Burton, and in a pinch Del Rosario and Herrera. And Valiquette is coming on.

And, looking at the pen, wouldn't be suprised if Chapman winds up there next year.

As someone correctly posted awhile back, the Reds have lots of pitching depth. What they need is a little height (i.e., a real Number one starter).

[BrooklynRedz]

No reason to think the Reds won't be chasing that No. 1 this winter considering their efforts to acquire Halladay last July and Lee most recently.

[dunner13]

If we let harang and arroyo both go we have to get a veteran starter at the top of the rotatation to replace them. If the royals decide to put grienke on the market this winter, which after his recent comments seems likely, I'm sure walt will go hard after him. Also I saw an article a week or two ago saying that the rays are likely to shop garza this winter. If we could get one of those two guys at the top of the rotation we would be set. I would keep webb as a plan B. I would love to have him but I you cant circle him in as #1 or even a #2 starter at this point.

[Mario-Rijo]

No reason to think the Reds won't be chasing that No. 1 this winter considering their efforts to acquire Halladay last July and Lee most recently.

Lee will be available, doubt they make a strong bid for him. Not sure I'd want them to anyway. Signing an old Lee means losing a young guy or 3 in short order.

[LincolnparkRed]

If we let harang and arroyo both go we have to get a veteran starter at the top of the rotatation to replace them. If the royals decide to put grienke on the market this winter, which after his recent comments seems likely, I'm sure walt will go hard after him.

how much do you give up though?

[Puffy]

I wouldn't be surprised by a Leake (from Arizona) for Webb type deal over winter.

Webb, Cueto, Volquez, Wood and Chapman as rotation and Bailey to pen (and either Bailey or Masset becoming closer)

Also wouldn't be surprised if Arroyo is back and then Chapman and Wood duke it out for last rotation slot.

[dunner13]

I wouldn't be surprised by a Leake (from Arizona) for Webb type deal over winter.

Webb, Cueto, Volquez, Wood and Chapman as rotation and Bailey to pen (and either Bailey or Masset becoming closer)

Also wouldn't be surprised if Arroyo is back and then Chapman and Wood duke it out for last rotation slot.

Why would we trade for Webb when hes going to be a free agent after this year? Theres pretty much 0% chance the D'backs pick up his 8 million dollar option. And I certainly wouldnt trade Mike Leake for Webb at this point.

[RedsManRick]

I really, really hope Arroyo is let go at the end of the season. I'm very appreciate for what he's given the team over the last few years, but his results are simply way out of line with his performance (declining K/9, significant & unsustainable BABIP luck).

As a 4.50 ERA guy, which is a reasonable expectation of his performance moving forward, his salary is not insanely out of line. However, I do think it's a luxury we shouldn't pay for. We have a number of internal options who can give us that level of performance (or close to it) for cheap. Paying Arroyo $11M so that Matt Maloney can rot in AAA just doesn't make sense to me.

We already have 5 guys who have established the ability to be major league caliber starters:
Cueto
Wood
Volquez
Bailey
Leake

We also have a handful of guys who could be starters next, one with ace potential, most as back end guys:
Chapman
Maloney
LeCure
Owings
Fisher (if you ask me...he could/should be stretched out)

And a few guys who could be ready in late 2011:
Ben Jukich
Matt Klinker

Bottom line, this team doesn't lack for options. It does lack of upside. Getting from 78-80 to 86-88 wins is one thing. Getting from there to 92-94 is another. For once this team isn't desperate to fill out the back of its roster. While this is a good thing, it means we have a higher bar to clear when adding talent if we're going to add wins.

I don't think we get any better by spending $11M hoping Arroyo's run of good luck can continue. I find it very hard to believe that Arroyo has, over the past two years, developed an ability to limit hits on balls in play equal to that of Mariano Rivera, one of the greatest of all-time (literally) at doing this. He might be worth $11M in free agency to somebody, but I don't think he's $10.5M better than the guy who goes back to AAA or to the bullpen.

This team needs to spend it's money locking up and acquiring top level talent that it cannot acquire otherwise. That could mean signing a starter in FA who is better (even if more expensive) or more likely, trading for a starter like Ricky Nolasco, Matt Cain or Wandy Rodriguez who is getting expensive for their current team relative to their other needs. Even if the money isn't spent in the offseason, financial flexibility has serious value in trades come next summer.

[nate]

Well said, Rick. I agree, we don't need "depth" any more, we need "height."

[membengal]

Has there been some change on the scouting of Webb's shoulder? The last reports were that it was career threatening, and he has not tossed a pitch this season at any level that I am aware of.

At any rate, he's NOT the #1 everyone craves for 2011, not with shoulder issues dogging him. Not a #1 you can know will be a #1 on opening day, anyway. He's more a flier hoping to strike gold...

[osuceltic]

I really, really hope Arroyo is let go at the end of the season. I'm very appreciate for what he's given the team over the last few years, but his results are simply way out of line with his performance (declining K/9, significant & unsustainable BABIP luck).

As a 4.50 ERA guy, which is a reasonable expectation of his performance moving forward, his salary is not insanely out of line. However, I do think it's a luxury we shouldn't pay for. We have a number of internal options who can give us that level of performance (or close to it) for cheap. Paying Arroyo $11M so that Matt Maloney can rot in AAA just doesn't make sense to me.



It's a huge leap to expect Matt Maloney to come anywhere near the level of production Arroyo has provided and continues to provide the Reds. With all this "depth" it's important to remember there are a lot of question marks attached to most of these guys. Can Leake come back and be the pitcher he was in the first half? Can Travis Wood sustain his success over time (we saw what happened with Leake)? Can Volquez come back? Is Homer ever going to be what we hoped? If you get one or two wrong answers, that depth is gone in a hurry. Get three wrong answers, and you lose 90 games.

I'd bring Arroyo back and wouldn't think twice about it. If we get nothing but good answers to all of those questions, great. Then Arroyo gives us a valuable trading chip at next year's deadline. But I need to see these guys do it for more than flashes before I give up the take-it-to-the-bank production of Arroyo. He continues to be massively underappreciated.

[Spitball]

At any rate, he's NOT the #1 everyone craves for 2011, not with shoulder issues dogging him. Not a #1 you can know will be a #1 on opening day, anyway. He's more a flier hoping to strike gold...

I know he has commented that he'd like to come back as a relief pitcher. He may be talking short term, the move makes sense for his future.

[RedsManRick]

It's a huge leap to expect Matt Maloney to come anywhere near the level of production Arroyo has provided and continues to provide the Reds. With all this "depth" it's important to remember there are a lot of question marks attached to most of these guys. Can Leake come back and be the pitcher he was in the first half? Can Travis Wood sustain his success over time (we saw what happened with Leake)? Can Volquez come back? Is Homer ever going to be what we hoped? If you get one or two wrong answers, that depth is gone in a hurry. Get three wrong answers, and you lose 90 games.

I'd bring Arroyo back and wouldn't think twice about it. If we get nothing but good answers to all of those questions, great. Then Arroyo gives us a valuable trading chip at next year's deadline. But I need to see these guys do it for more than flashes before I give up the take-it-to-the-bank production of Arroyo. He continues to be massively underappreciated.

I appreciate the point. Certainty is nice and our other myriad options are anything but. But I think you might be assuming a bit too much certainty about the performance we're going to get from Arroyo himself. Some talk like a 4ish ERA is guaranteed, it's not. His peripherals suggest something closer to 4.50 and unless you're willing to make the case that Arroyo is a massive exception to the rule, he's extremely likely to regress. (and if we recognize that he's benefiting from some good luck, then we recognize that luck is blind and that any pitcher could benefit from it and that Arroyo should not be given extra credit in forward looking projections merely because he's the current beneficiary)

If all we had to replace him was Maloney, I'd probably bring him back. But the point is that we only need 1 person out of a group of 3 or 4 plus to step in, assuming we can't put that $9M ($11M salary - $2M buyout) towards an option that is clearly better than Arroyo. If 2 or 3 things go wrong in your scenario, Arroyo isn't likely the difference between the playoffs and 90 losses. I'm not one of those, don't spend money unless it's on THE difference maker types, but I do think you spend money on difference makers more generally -- and Arroyo is not that.

The difference between 200 IP of a 4.00 ERA and a 5.00 ERA is about 2 wins. Absolute worst case scenario, Arroyo has career year vs. replacements who bomb is about 4 wins. Best case scenario, his replacement is better than him and $10.5M cheaper.

Again, in the abstract, I think this team is better with Arroyo in the rotation than if he just disappears (e.g. he's likely better than our 5th best starter). But that line of thinking ignores the opportunity cost of the rotation spot and his salary. I think the team is better off with the money and the spot - particularly if we're looking to increase our upside potential. Maybe that's fine -- it's hard to complain when you're sitting in first. But I'd sure feel a whole lot better about our WS chances with a true #1 at the top. Keeping Arroyo most likely means not upgrading the rotation with anybody from outside of the organization.

[nemesis]

Cueto is going into season 4. Same for Volquez. That's "Vet" enough for me.

Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Bailey
Leake

Bray
Arredondo
Smith
Ondrusek
Massett
Rhodes (Resign)
Cordero (Still Under Contract)

Leaving in AAA

Chapman
Maloney
LeCure
Klinker

Del Rosario
Burton
Valiquette
Fisher
Herrera
Joseph (AA)
Freeman (AA)

I'm willing to go into next year with that.

[Ghosts of 1990]

FWIW, I think they're going to groom Homer by the end of next year to replace Cordero as the closer. Homer is going to the pen, that's his future (like it or not, I don't like it) with this organization.

[Mario-Rijo]

2011 here is what it would be for me if I could pull it off.

Z. Greinke
J. Cueto
T. Wood
M. Leake
A. Chapman

2012

Greinke
Chapman
Cueto
Leake
Wood

Homer and Edinson to KC for Greinke, might have to sweeten it a bit but we have the resources to do so. I'd toss in a good relief arm like Bray and maybe even a bat Francisco to get it done. Letting go of Bronson (and to a lesser extent Volquez and Bailey who are coming up on arb.) would hypothetically allow us to re-sign Greinke to a contract extension.

Short of a trade I'd do something like this:

Volquez
Cueto
Wood
Leake
Bailey/Chapman

[lollipopcurve]

Homer and Edinson to KC for Greinke, might have to sweeten it a bit but we have the resources to do so. I'd toss in a good relief arm like Bray and maybe even a bat Francisco to get it done. Letting go of Bronson (and to a lesser extent Volquez and Bailey who are coming up on arb.) would hypothetically allow us to re-sign Greinke to a contract extension.

This is overpaying. Bailey, if he continues to improve his command, has a chance to be really good. Volquez, if he straightens out his command, has the same kind of ceiling. You don't deal both of those guys, given the years of control and the price, for two years of Greinke at a high price. One pitcher plus prospects should do it. KC is in a tough spot -- there's no way they keep Greinke beyond 2012, and they need to bolster talent across their roster. I agree that Greinke is a great target for the Reds, and that the Reds are an excellent partner for KC to match up with. If the Reds need to outbid other suitors, they should do it with prospects, not proven arms. They've got the system to do it.

[Mario-Rijo]

This is overpaying. Bailey, if he continues to improve his command, has a chance to be really good. Volquez, if he straightens out his command, has the same kind of ceiling. You don't deal both of those guys, given the years of control and the price, for two years of Greinke at a high price. One pitcher plus prospects should do it. KC is in a tough spot -- there's no way they keep Greinke beyond 2012, and they need to bolster talent across their roster. I agree that Greinke is a great target for the Reds, and that the Reds are an excellent partner for KC to match up with. If the Reds need to outbid other suitors, they should do it with prospects, not proven arms. They've got the system to do it.

I'd love to be able to keep Volquez but I'm guessing for Greinke they'd want Volquez who IMO is the only guy in our current rotation with potential ace stuff. I won't get into the Bailey issue as we just disagree about him so in my world it's not really overpaying. It just appears like it might be which is the key to getting it done.

[medford]

picking up Bronson's option is as no-brainer of a move as I can think of. As Homer & Edison have proved in recent seasons, counting on young pitching to give you extended innings is less than a sure thing. I can't think of many (if any) pitchers in the majors that you could feel more confident in giving you 200+ innings next year than Bronson. That alone is worth a decent penny. throw in the results that he's posted the last 2+ seasons and I can't see how/why you'd consider letting him walk away. There is no garuntee Chapman makes it as a starter, that Leake comes back like his 1st half self, that Cueto ever takes the leap to the next level TOR starter material, that Edison regains his 2008 form, etc... Arroyo is something you can count on, something the Reds can count on, someone that can pitch in a pinch when needed and doesn't offer up excuses when things go wrong. Pick up that option, then let him walk and pick up the draft compensation in 2 seasons, or attempt to resign him depending on how the Leake/Wood/Homer/Cueto/Volquez/Chapman questions answer themselves.

I do agree that a trade of a young starting pitcher is on the table this winter. I've got to imagine Walt's meeting rooms will be pretty well occupied by oppossing teams at the winter meetings. Heck, I've got to imagine that the list just to get into meet with Walt is going to be pretty exclusive. Who's looking for young pitching? Everyone. I doubt there are many teams with a better stable of young ML ready pitchers than the Reds. If you can't agree on your favorite Reds target, perhaps you can get something done w/ your 3rd or 4th option and feel just as good when you head back home.

Question on Volquez's arbitration status. I thought somewhere (perhaps w/ a different player) that someone's suspension due to PEDs was going to delay that players arbitration status since they suspended days weren't counted as major league service days. Any truth to that, and any chance that pushes back his arbitration season 1 more year? I don't recall how many days whe spent up w/ the Rangers before coming to the Reds.

[bucksfan2]

If the Reds are going to increase payroll (which I have a feeling they should had will) next season then I see Arroyo back in a Reds uniform. As of right now the Reds have one starter who physically could replace the innings that Arroyo throws that that is Cueto. Leake will be somewhat on a monitored pitch count and Wood will also. Bailey and Volquez will be question marks because of the amount of time missed this season. Can they handle a 200+ IP season. And Chapman is still a big question mark. I wouldn't pass up on a vet starter to pencil Chapman into the rotation.

I would look at trading Cueto this off season. He does have good stuff and ability but I have some serious questions about him. Right now his value may be high and his return could be substantial. Right now his value is higher than that of Bailey, Volquez, and Wood but I like the upside potential of the other 3 more than Johnny.

[TRF]

I pick up Arroyo's option. Here is why.

He seems to be the exception that proves the rule. He's got post season experience. He's an innings horse, and next year at the trade deadline, he could be one of the more highly sought after guys assuming the Reds are out of it, which at this point, I'm not ready to concede. His production can help a winning team or bring value back to a losing one.

[camisadelgolf]

Question on Volquez's arbitration status. I thought somewhere (perhaps w/ a different player) that someone's suspension due to PEDs was going to delay that players arbitration status since they suspended days weren't counted as major league service days. Any truth to that, and any chance that pushes back his arbitration season 1 more year? I don't recall how many days whe spent up w/ the Rangers before coming to the Reds.
Volquez was nearly arbitration eligible following the close of 2009. Even if Volquez doesn't get three years of service time (and he will), it's pretty much guaranteed that he'd qualify as a 'Super Two' this year anyway.

players who will be eligible for arbitration:
Bill Bray - first year; possible non-tender candidate
Jay Bruce - first year; super two; big raise expected
Jared Burton - likely to be non-tendered because it would take $648,000 to keep him
Johnny Cueto - first year; big raise expected
Corky Miller - likely to be non-tendered by Reds for second consecutive year
Laynce Nix - likely to be non-tendered by Reds for second consecutive year
Micah Owings - likely leaving the team within the week; if not, will be non-tendered
Edinson Volquez - first year; big raise expected
Joey Votto - first year; huge raise expected

[camisadelgolf]

I'd definitely pick up Arroyo's option. Even if the Reds have no use for him, I can think of at least five teams (White Sox, Tigers, Yankees, Mets and Dodgers) that would be willing to trade something good for him. Even the Rangers, Twins, and a few other teams would probably make room for him for the right price.

[OUReds]

Arroyo has outperformed his FIP 4 out of the 5 years he has been with the Reds. 3 out of 4 of those years he has outperformed it by a lot. At what point do we give him the benefit of the doubt?

I'd be shocked if his option wasn't picked up.

[Tom Servo]

Yeah at this point picking up Bronson's option seems like a no brainer. Even if he has an off year, it's only one year worth of (large) salary and won't cripple the franchise after that year.

[Mario-Rijo]

Arroyo has outperformed his FIP 4 out of the 5 years he has been with the Reds. 3 out of 4 of those years he has outperformed it by a lot. At what point do we give him the benefit of the doubt?

I'd be shocked if his option wasn't picked up.

This is true and when one goes to the numbers it's like "man his luck is running out" but when you watch the guy pitch he easily gets guys out a vast majority of the time despite not K'ing many of them. He's like the RH version of Jamie Moyer only more dependable at this stage. The temptation to unload those dollars and re-direct them into the future of the club though is a big one as is the temptation of running all those young arms out there and hope for the upside to show itself. I guess I'm currently in the wait and see mode with the general feeling of I'll be content with it either way it goes for 2011, beyond that siyanora Bronson.

[PuffyPig]

Every staff would love to have an arm like Arroyo's to throw out here for 220+ innings per season.

We have one, I doubt we send him packing next season when we are in a 3-5 year time period where we look to have a contending team, and the other teams in our division appear to be on the downswing.

[PuffyPig]

He's like the RH version of Jamie Moyer only more dependable at this stage.


I said the exact same thing to my son yesterday.

One of the reasons Moyer is still effective is that his arsenal of pitches is different than any other pitcher in baseball.

I think Arroyo fits in that same type, as no one else throws like he does.

Like knuckleballers, they may in some respect induce weak contact more than the average pitcher.

[pedro]

I'd exercise Arroyo's option if I was the Reds. Better to deal from a position of strength and flip someone in spring training then to count your chickens before they hatch. Plus I want no part of Maloney, dude doesn't have an "out pitch" and would get torched in GABP.