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View Full Version : Head to Head, It's No Contest



CentralKYRedfan
08-11-2010, 06:33 AM
This is the easiest thing in the world to write after taking two straight beatings, but it really is a fact that, head-to-head, the Cardinals own the Reds. There is simply no way the Reds can beat the trio of Carpenter, Garcia & Wainright. Add in the fact that the Cardinals have more experience and (in my opinion) more offensive talent, and there is little wonder why the Cardinals beat the Reds an average of 2 out of every 3.

To make matters worse, Phillips little tirade was completely uncalled for, childish, and was simply asking for trouble. Just shut up and play the game.

cincyforever
08-11-2010, 07:41 AM
I agree. I am not cliff jumping but if we are relying on Cueto or Arroyo to get us a win against the Cardinals, it tell you Cincy doesn't have an ace; it tells you Cincy doesn't have a "go to guy" and if Arroyo is that guy, then.. I'm sorry.

Cincy can beat up on Houston, Chicago and Pittsburgh all they want but other than the Braves series last week, this team hasn't shown anything promising. If Cincy gets into the postseason, what happens when they draw LA, SD, STL, ATL or PHI? They are bounced in the first round.

Jocketty should have made a move, now it is biting them. Base hit away from sweeping the Braves, and they strikeout. Could have been an added bat in the lineup, there. The pitching on this team is too inconsistent to make a postseason run.

Again, no cliff jumping here, just stating what I see, here.....

will5979
08-11-2010, 07:44 AM
I agree. I am not cliff jumping but if we are relying on Cueto or Arroyo to get us a win against the Cardinals, it tell you Cincy doesn't have an ace; it tells you Cincy doesn't have a "go to guy" and if Arroyo is that guy, then.. I'm sorry.

Cincy can beat up on Houston, Chicago and Pittsburgh all they want but other than the Braves series last week, this team hasn't shown anything promising. If Cincy gets into the postseason, what happens when they draw LA, SD, STL, ATL or PHI? They are bounced in the first round.

Jocketty should have made a move, now it is biting them. Base hit away from sweeping the Braves, and they strikeout. Could have been an added bat in the lineup, there. The pitching on this team is too inconsistent to make a postseason run.

Again, no cliff jumping here, just stating what I see, here.....

Agreed, why just settle to make the postseason when you could actually win? It makes no sense to me whatsoever that the Reds did not add a bat to lineup at the deadline.

Magdal
08-11-2010, 08:34 AM
Agreed, why just settle to make the postseason when you could actually win? It makes no sense to me whatsoever that the Reds did not add a bat to lineup at the deadline.Add a bat? Add a bat to the highest scoring team in the NL? No, that's bull. Add an arm? No again. This is a dam good rotation, better that the Cards.

The team is just new to winning. The defensive meltdown and weak hitting after the brawl shows that clearly. On paper the Reds are the best team in the Central. I just don't think they know it yet. At some point they will.;)

MikeThierry
08-11-2010, 08:48 AM
Add a bat? Add a bat to the highest scoring team in the NL? No, that's bull. Add an arm? No again. This is a dam good rotation, better that the Cards.

The team is just new to winning. The defensive meltdown and weak hitting after the brawl shows that clearly. On paper the Reds are the best team in the Central. I just don't think they know it yet. At some point they will.;)

I wouldn't argue that 1-5, the Reds have a better rotation now. I would have disagreed earlier with you if Penny wasn't injured but as it stands right now, you are right (though I'm loving what I'm seeing from Westbrooke since the Cards got him so that is a wild card).

That said, I think this series emphasizes why every team who makes the playoffs needs a legit, lock down, no hold bar Ace on their staff. In a 5 or 7 game series, having a good rotation will not work. You need guys that you expect to throw no hit stuff. I expect on a nightly basis for Carpenter and Waino to completely shut down the competition. I don't know if you can say that about the starters on the Reds.

This is one of the reasons why I think San Diego will have a tough time in the playoffs. Matt Latos is a stud but the rest of the rotation is filled with good pitchers. However those good pitchers will be matched up against other Aces from other teams.

Also, saying the Reds are the best team on paper is arguable. I think they are about even when you consider both teams strengths and weaknesses.

Magdal
08-11-2010, 09:18 AM
I wouldn't argue that 1-5, the Reds have a better rotation now. I would have disagreed earlier with you if Penny wasn't injured but as it stands right now, you are right (though I'm loving what I'm seeing from Westbrooke since the Cards got him so that is a wild card).

That said, I think this series emphasizes why every team who makes the playoffs needs a legit, lock down, no hold bar Ace on their staff. In a 5 or 7 game series, having a good rotation will not work. You need guys that you expect to throw no hit stuff. I expect on a nightly basis for Carpenter and Waino to completely shut down the competition. I don't know if you can say that about the starters on the Reds.

This is one of the reasons why I think San Diego will have a tough time in the playoffs. Matt Latos is a stud but the rest of the rotation is filled with good pitchers. However those good pitchers will be matched up against other Aces from other teams.

Also, saying the Reds are the best team on paper is arguable. I think they are about even when you consider both teams strengths and weaknesses.Dam good post Mike, but the Card infield leads the galaxy in errors and men caught between bases/base stealing. That is 2 5ths of the game. The Reds ARE in fact the better team. At the risk of alianating everyone here on RZ I will say this: Baker is not a good manager. There is about 20 managers in the game that would DIE to have this team.

And I don't think much of Walt trying to make the team Cardinals East.

GIDP
08-11-2010, 09:35 AM
Reds were 9-6 against the Cardinals in 2006. Clearly the Reds were the better team that year.

sivman17
08-11-2010, 10:32 AM
FWIW, the Reds haven't fared too well against division leaders:

vs. ATL: 2-3
vs. SD: 1-2
vs. STL: 5-9

It's a relatively small sample size, except for the STL series, but playoff series are small sample sizes as well. Hopefully they learn how to beat good teams.

mrherd05
08-11-2010, 10:33 AM
They can own us all the want. Fact is, the way a baseball schedule is made, they can beat us all 18 or 19 times they play us. And we can still go to the playoffs and their sorry butts can stay home.

tobttr
08-11-2010, 11:44 AM
Add a bat? Add a bat to the highest scoring team in the NL? No, that's bull. Add an arm? No again. This is a dam good rotation, better that the Cards.

The team is just new to winning. The defensive meltdown and weak hitting after the brawl shows that clearly. On paper the Reds are the best team in the Central. I just don't think they know it yet. At some point they will.;)

A very, very good point about the Reds being new to winning. I know they have Rolen & Edmonds now, but a huge number of kids on this roster have had absolutely no postseason experience.
On the other hand, I don't honestly see the Reds rotation as being better than StL's. Not even close. I mean, who is the Reds' ace? Cueto? Arroyo? He would be the #4 starter in St. Looey.

jfleur87
08-11-2010, 11:52 AM
Reds were 9-6 against the Cardinals in 2006. Clearly the Reds were the better team that year.

Well I'm encouraged by this. The Cardinals won the World Series this year, no?...Just saying, we don't have to beat the Cardinals to make the playoffs, we just need to beat everyone else, like we have been.

redhat
08-11-2010, 12:34 PM
... why just settle to make the postseason when you could actually win?
The postseason is a crapshoot. Any team that gets in has a chance to win it all, even if they look as if they don't on paper.

For instance,
1985 Royals (well, they needed a little help from the first base ump)
1987 Twins (five teams in the AL East had better records)
1997 and 2003 Marlins
2006 Cards (won only 83 games in the regular season)
And, one could argue, the 1990 Reds.

Teams that make the playoffs know how to pitch to the best hitters. What you need to win are contributions from unexpected sources.

The Cards don't even make the WS in 2006 if not for:
Scott Spiezio tripling in two runs to tie Game 2 against the Mets.
So Taguchi homering off Billy Wager in the ninth inning of Game 2.
Yadier Molina hitting a ninth inning homer in win Game 7.

And who was the hitting star in the WS? David Eckstein.

webbbj
08-11-2010, 01:51 PM
the reds have 3-4 pitchers that are capable of pitching like aces on any given night, but they dont do that consistently enough and most nights perform like #2 or #3 starters which is no shame. what it means is if this team gets hot at the right time they can beat anyone.

if i recall when the rockies made the WS they didnt have an ace and werent favored to get there but they got streaking at the right part in the schedule and won the NL. i believe they were below .500 in september and had a rediculous streak of winning 25/26 or something.

Razzle
08-11-2010, 04:32 PM
And who was the hitting star in the WS? David Eckstein.

A tossup between Scott Rolen and Detroit's pitchers not being able to field bunts.

Vottomatic
08-11-2010, 04:46 PM
Geez. We've sucked for how long now before this season? And the Cards have been the ones to beat for awhile now?

We're battling for first place after not even competing the last 10 years. It doesn't happen in just one season. We have a solid nucleus. We have tons of pitching. Cards have 3 great pitchers and very little else. Those 3 go down, they got nothing. Unlike the Reds who have plenty of options.

Poopholes goes down, Cards are mediocre. Reds have more depth than the Cards, to stay competitive.

Right now, everything is working for the Cardinals. Right now, Reds have hit an offensive and pitching slump after going gangbusters for weeks. It happens.

Padres and San Francisco are both better than the Cardinals. They're better than us too.

Even if we made it to the postseason, I said months ago that we'd be one of the weakere teams because you only need a couple of good pitchers to get it done. Padres and Giants have aces. We have #2's and #3's. Not going to get it done unless you're an offensive powerhouse. And our offense goes south against good pitching. And we have too many guys who fail to make contact and K alot.

I think this season took Jocketty and Castellini by surprise. I think they expected to be better, but not in first or second place. Now they can tweak the roster in the offseason with so many guys they can trade for needs. Let's see what they do.

Griffey012
08-11-2010, 04:52 PM
Geez. We've sucked for how long now before this season? And the Cards have been the ones to beat for awhile now?

We're battling for first place after not even competing the last 10 years. It doesn't happen in just one season. We have a solid nucleus. We have tons of pitching. Cards have 3 great pitchers and very little else. Those 3 go down, they got nothing. Unlike the Reds who have plenty of options.

Poopholes goes down, Cards are mediocre. Reds have more depth than the Cards, to stay competitive.

Right now, everything is working for the Cardinals. Right now, Reds have hit an offensive and pitching slump after going gangbusters for weeks. It happens.

Padres and San Francisco are both better than the Cardinals. They're better than us too.

Even if we made it to the postseason, I said months ago that we'd be one of the weakere teams because you only need a couple of good pitchers to get it done. Padres and Giants have aces. We have #2's and #3's. Not going to get it done unless you're an offensive powerhouse. And our offense goes south against good pitching. And we have too many guys who fail to make contact and K alot.

I think this season took Jocketty and Castellini by surprise. I think they expected to be better, but not in first or second place. Now they can tweak the roster in the offseason with so many guys they can trade for needs. Let's see what they do.

Good post.

Right now we are in the situation of the up and coming team trying to take down the team that has ran the division for a while. It is a tough mountain to get over. Being from Indy and a Colts fan it reminds me of how many tries it took the Colts to pass over the Patriot hump. The Reds are in the same situation, we may be able to pass around the mountain by outplaying the other teams and taking first place that way, but right now we cannot climb directly over the top of mountain and beat the Cardinals.

We are in a good situation, and are only 1 back in the division and Wild Card, it is absolutely not over yet.

Vottomatic
08-11-2010, 05:03 PM
In July, the Cards......

went 2-2 at home against Milwaukee
got swept 0-3 at Colorado
went 2-1 at Houston
swept the Dodgers 4-0 at LA
went 3-1 at home against Philly
lost 2 of 3 in Chicago to the Cubs
lost 2 of 3 at the Mets
swept the Pirates 2-0

That's only 17-13 in July.

The Reds went 14-12 in July playing the Cubs, Mets, Houston, Colorado, Milwaukee (same teams the Cards played), and then the Nationals and Braves. Braves are in first place.

Not that much difference here.

BlastFurnace
08-11-2010, 05:06 PM
This is the easiest thing in the world to write after taking two straight beatings, but it really is a fact that, head-to-head, the Cardinals own the Reds. There is simply no way the Reds can beat the trio of Carpenter, Garcia & Wainright. Add in the fact that the Cardinals have more experience and (in my opinion) more offensive talent, and there is little wonder why the Cardinals beat the Reds an average of 2 out of every 3.

To make matters worse, Phillips little tirade was completely uncalled for, childish, and was simply asking for trouble. Just shut up and play the game.

Honestly, I expected a sweep from the Cardinals in this series. I expect it too when the Reds play the Braves. The Braves and Cardinals own the Reds.

10xWSChamps
08-11-2010, 05:22 PM
Well I'm encouraged by this. The Cardinals won the World Series this year, no?...Just saying, we don't have to beat the Cardinals to make the playoffs, we just need to beat everyone else, like we have been.

If we both make the playoffs, you may have to beat us in the NLCS ;)


Geez. We've sucked for how long now before this season? And the Cards have been the ones to beat for awhile now?

We're battling for first place after not even competing the last 10 years. It doesn't happen in just one season. We have a solid nucleus. We have tons of pitching. Cards have 3 great pitchers and very little else. Those 3 go down, they got nothing. Unlike the Reds who have plenty of options.

Poopholes goes down, Cards are mediocre. Reds have more depth than the Cards, to stay competitive.

Right now, everything is working for the Cardinals. Right now, Reds have hit an offensive and pitching slump after going gangbusters for weeks. It happens.

Padres and San Francisco are both better than the Cardinals. They're better than us too.

Even if we made it to the postseason, I said months ago that we'd be one of the weakere teams because you only need a couple of good pitchers to get it done. Padres and Giants have aces. We have #2's and #3's. Not going to get it done unless you're an offensive powerhouse. And our offense goes south against good pitching. And we have too many guys who fail to make contact and K alot.

I think this season took Jocketty and Castellini by surprise. I think they expected to be better, but not in first or second place. Now they can tweak the roster in the offseason with so many guys they can trade for needs. Let's see what they do.


I would say the Padres are better then the Reds and Cardinals, but not the Giants. Giants don't have as good of an offense. And with Lincecum struggling a bit (for his standards) it's going to be harder for their rotation to dominate in a series.

The Cardinals 4th and 5th starters will be better, with Westbrook and Lohse back (lohse is pitching this weekend against the Cubs) and Penny starting rehab the back end of our rotation could turn into a strength again like it was to start the year.

sivman17
08-11-2010, 05:24 PM
Honestly, I expected a sweep from the Cardinals in this series. I expect it too when the Reds play the Braves. The Braves and Cardinals own the Reds.

Cardinals have had the Reds number this year, that's for sure. But the Reds are 2-3 against the Braves this year, 6-3 in '09, and 3-3 in '08.

Hondo
08-11-2010, 06:02 PM
This is the easiest thing in the world to write after taking two straight beatings, but it really is a fact that, head-to-head, the Cardinals own the Reds. There is simply no way the Reds can beat the trio of Carpenter, Garcia & Wainright. Add in the fact that the Cardinals have more experience and (in my opinion) more offensive talent, and there is little wonder why the Cardinals beat the Reds an average of 2 out of every 3.

To make matters worse, Phillips little tirade was completely uncalled for, childish, and was simply asking for trouble. Just shut up and play the game.

I think the Reds had more pressure to beat the cards after what phillips said then the Cards had to beat the Reds...

Vottomatic
08-11-2010, 07:42 PM
I think this set it up for sweet revenge in early September. The Cards will take the Reds lightly and the Reds will be quietly focused to do some damage in St. Louis. Cards will take it for granted and slip up.

mckbearcat48
08-11-2010, 07:48 PM
As a Cardinal fan, the one guy I really don't want to see is Arroyo. This guy is a competitor and is usually really tough on the Birds.

HARP3R
08-11-2010, 11:36 PM
I think this set it up for sweet revenge in early September. The Cards will take the Reds lightly and the Reds will be quietly focused to do some damage in St. Louis. Cards will take it for granted and slip up.

I sincerely doubt the Cards take the Reds lightly...

After what Phillips said, and how Cueto showed his true colors during the brawl, the Cardinals will be fired up each and every time they play the Reds. You can count on it.

Had BP kept his mouth shut, maybe the Cardinals do overlook the Reds (if the Cards have a substantial lead in the Central).

MikeThierry
08-11-2010, 11:37 PM
I don't think the Cards have taken the Reds lightly all year long so I don't know why they would start doing so right now.

Hey Meat
08-12-2010, 12:17 AM
They can own us all the want. Fact is, the way a baseball schedule is made, they can beat us all 18 or 19 times they play us. And we can still go to the playoffs and their sorry butts can stay home.

That's what happens to a team that can't beat the Cubs or the Stros. We will beat them out.

757690
08-12-2010, 11:05 AM
The Reds probably won't make the playoffs this year. Maybe, but probably not.

However, the Reds look great for the next few years if not longer. They have as much depth in the organization as any team in the majors, are young, have payflex for years to come, and are contending team right now.

They have the ability to use that depth to either fill holes that will develop with cheap talent from the minors or trade some of that talent for veterans. They can also use their payflex to add talent via free agency. They should be much better next year, and even better the next.

The Cardinals on the other hand... boy am I glad I am not a Cardinal fan.

They have no depth in their organization at all. The proof of this is that they are playing Lopez at 3rd, pitching dumpster diving guys like Suppan, and the most obvious proof, they had to trade their starting RF, one of their best offensive threats, in order to get an aging, middle of the road starting pitcher.
They also have no payflex in the next few years. In fact, they are going to have to sell off valuable pieces like they did with Ludwick, just to keep their payroll under $100M. They are going to have to trade guys like Lohse, Franklin, Schumaker, and/or Molina to stay within budget next year. And in 2012, when they have to sign Pujols, they have to sell off even more. It really might be in their best interests to not sign Pujols in 2012. And the Cardinals without Pujols, are basically the Pirates.

I can easily see 2-3 years at least of rebuilding for the Cardinals, or if they make the wrong moves, 10 years of struggling in their future.

The Cards are a better team than the Reds right now, but that will not last long at all.

mckbearcat48
08-12-2010, 02:42 PM
The Cardinals on the other hand... boy am I glad I am not a Cardinal fan.

They have no depth in their organization at all. The proof of this is that they are playing Lopez at 3rd, pitching dumpster diving guys like Suppan, and the most obvious proof, they had to trade their starting RF, one of their best offensive threats, in order to get an aging, middle of the road starting pitcher.
They also have no payflex in the next few years. In fact, they are going to have to sell off valuable pieces like they did with Ludwick, just to keep their payroll under $100M. They are going to have to trade guys like Lohse, Franklin, Schumaker, and/or Molina to stay within budget next year. And in 2012, when they have to sign Pujols, they have to sell off even more. It really might be in their best interests to not sign Pujols in 2012. And the Cardinals without Pujols, are basically the Pirates.

I can easily see 2-3 years at least of rebuilding for the Cardinals, or if they make the wrong moves, 10 years of struggling in their future.

Couple points...

1--St. Louis does not rebuild, period. Ownership will spend the money to prevent a rebuilding process. The payroll will go over 100M...flexibility isn't that big a deal.

2--Depth is only as important as the guys on the field. Cincy has a great minor league system. Cards do not...that said, the Cardinals still added a starting pitcher at the deadline.

3--I rather enjoy being a Cardinals fan...good baseball for most of my adult life. What more can you ask for as a baseball fan?

4--One of STL's big ideas during the Walt years is that minor leaguers only existed to be traded for major leaguers. Makes me wonder how much of that "depth" he's going to use in the offseason to get that #1/#2 SP.

5--Right now, what matters is right now. Cards and Reds are in a dogfight. If it boils down to talent versus talent on the rosters right now, the Cards advantage in the rotation is probably the difference. Reds are probably one pitcher away from evening the score there.

redssince75
08-12-2010, 02:47 PM
I sincerely doubt the Cards take the Reds lightly...

After what Phillips said, and how Cueto showed his true colors during the brawl, the Cardinals will be fired up each and every time they play the Reds. You can count on it.


You are absolutely correct.