PDA

View Full Version : Reds vs. Cards post-mortem



nate
08-11-2010, 04:58 PM
Outside the Jr. High School lockeroom nonsense, it really seemed to me that the Cardinals were getting all sorts of breaks on batted balls. Every time I looked up, there was a ball going just past a defender's glove, blooped into no-man's land or near Jonny Gomes. :cool:

So I wanted to compare BABIP for the two teams over the series, not as an indicator of skill, but to see if my eyes deceived me.

In base you don't know, the formula for BABIP is:

(Hits - HR) / (At Bats - Strikeouts - Home Runs + Sacrifice Flies)

Sooo, if I did this right, here's what we got!


H HR AB K SF BABIP
Reds 18 1 97 17 0 .215
Cards 35 3 112 20 1 .356


I expected the disparity to be a bit higher but then I realized how many more AB the Cardinals had. The Reds were hitting balls right at guys and the Cardinals were hitting them past guys.

Thoughts?

traderumor
08-11-2010, 05:00 PM
That is what my eyes saw. Lots of seeing eye hits for them, liners to OFers for us.

Homer Bailey
08-11-2010, 05:03 PM
I felt the same exact way. I kept waiting for it to turn around, and it never did. Makes the game all that much more maddening. How many more batted balls would have been outs with a somewhat decent LF?

jmcclain19
08-11-2010, 05:04 PM
That bright light of national attention sure wilted the Reds didn't it?

I think the post mortem for me, is the Cards have been kind of sleepy all year. Wondering if the Reds didn't just wake them up.

Sure it's just three games, but the Reds may have finally succeeded in doing what Tony LaRussa couldn't do all year. Wake the Cards out of their season long slumber.

That's a good, good baseball team that just took the Reds out behind the woodshed.

Brutus
08-11-2010, 05:05 PM
I felt the same exact way. I kept waiting for it to turn around, and it never did. Makes the game all that much more maddening. How many more batted balls would have been outs with a somewhat decent LF?

A lot less than the 35 hits the Cardinals collected.

nate
08-11-2010, 05:10 PM
If the Reds had gotten 6 more hits, their BABIP would've been a more "normalish" .291.

If the Cards had gotten 5 fewer hits, their BABIP would've been .300.

LincolnparkRed
08-11-2010, 05:34 PM
If the Reds had gotten 6 more hits, their BABIP would've been a more "normalish" .291.

If the Cards had gotten 5 fewer hits, their BABIP would've been .300.

and if you cherry pick the 5 hits

no homer for Shumacher on Mon
no single for Holiday on Tues
No homer for Rasmus today

we still lose 2 out of 3.

Our pitchers got outpitched, our hitters got out hit and the defense never made the big play that we have become accustomed to

dsmith421
08-11-2010, 05:37 PM
I think it was pretty simple. They are a playoff team, we're a cute story. We got absolutely destroyed. Play with the stats all you want.

Rojo
08-11-2010, 05:41 PM
I think it was pretty simple. They are a playoff team, we're a cute story. We got absolutely destroyed. Play with the stats all you want.

Angling for the "sober realist" prize? You're never as good as you think you are when you're winning and....

traderumor
08-11-2010, 05:43 PM
Oh brother, the sleeping giant theory. This is the Cards MO, win with the top 3, pray the rest of the time.

I'll eat my words if they go on a tear from here, but I see more floundering on the horizon due to little on the staff, including the bullpen, after Crissy, Garcia, and Wainwright. And Pujols is hurt and could become unplayable at any time. He's playing through it, but that could change at anytime.

Kc61
08-11-2010, 05:48 PM
I think it was pretty simple. They are a playoff team, we're a cute story. We got absolutely destroyed. Play with the stats all you want.


Reds are more than a cute story, they are a vastly improved team. Whether they are ready for prime time this year is debatable. But they are headed toward leadership in this division soon enough.

This was a tough series, they were destroyed. But the team has lots of talent, will continue to build, and will eventually be better than the Cards IMO. So it's a good time for Reds fans, even if there are bumps in the road.

MattyHo4Life
08-11-2010, 05:49 PM
And Pujols is hurt and could become unplayable at any time. He's playing through it, but that could change at anytime.

Pujols has been hurt for years....years. He was moved from LF to 1B years ago, because he couldn't throw very hard without risk of injury. He has had some sort of injury his entire career, but he still plays everyday.

SirFelixCat
08-11-2010, 05:52 PM
My honest thoughts are that this was the first time the vast majority of these guys have ever been in this type of position and were unprepared for it. There is a reason that a "veteran presence" is such a big thing in sports.

So with that said, I think the boys will lick their wounds tomorrow and be a better team for what happened these past 3 days. I expect them to learn from it and have a better showing come Labor Day weekend. I do not think that this team 'wilts' from this series. We shall see what happens! :thumbup:

nate
08-11-2010, 05:56 PM
and if you cherry pick the 5 hits

no homer for Shumacher on Mon
no single for Holiday on Tues
No homer for Rasmus today

Home runs aren't "in play" which is why they're subtracted on both sides of the BABIP equation.


we still lose 2 out of 3.

Our pitchers got outpitched, our hitters got out hit and the defense never made the big play that we have become accustomed to

Maybe.

My comment was more that the balls the Cardinals hit fell with greater frequency than the ball the Reds hit.

OnBaseMachine
08-11-2010, 06:00 PM
This season is far from over. The Cardinals just threw their best three pitchers at the Reds. Anything less than a sweep should have been considered a disappointment for them, IMO. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Reds are going to fold after losing three straight games. I think they'll get hot again and win somewhere around 90 games. Will that be enough to reach the playoffs? We'll have to wait and see. I like the future of this team. We're set up to contend for a long time, IMO. It's just up to the F.O. to bring in a couple of key pieces to push the team over the top.

traderumor
08-11-2010, 06:00 PM
Pujols has been hurt for years....years. He was moved from LF to 1B years ago, because he couldn't throw very hard without risk of injury. He has had some sort of injury his entire career, but he still plays everyday.His hip is injured. Maybe he'll play through it, but it could also make him one-legged anytime. That is all I'm saying.

dsmith421
08-11-2010, 06:03 PM
Angling for the "sober realist" prize? You're never as good as you think you are when you're winning and....

Nope. Just telling it like I seen it.

Always Red
08-11-2010, 06:38 PM
I think the Cardinals are a team built for winning in the playoffs, which they expect to participate in every year.

In a 7 game series with 2 days off, they can pitch those 3 hammers twice each, if they choose.

The Reds are a deeper team, overall, but their best SP would only be #4 on that team.

I think it will be a great race to the finish, and maybe both teams make the playoffs. I do not think this Reds team would do well in a playoff situation, but I do expect that the Cardinals would.

But for the Reds, making the playoff would be a great first step.

RFS62
08-11-2010, 06:41 PM
I think the Cardinals are a team built for winning in the playoffs, which they expect to participate in every year.

In a 7 game series with 2 days off, they can pitch those 3 hammers twice each, if they choose.

The Reds are a deeper team, overall, but their best SP would only be #4 on that team.

I think it will be a great race to the finish, and maybe both teams make the playoffs. I do not think this Reds team would do well in a playoff situation, but I do expect that the Cardinals would.

But for the Reds, making the playoff would be a great first step.



I agree

:beerme:

jojo
08-11-2010, 06:42 PM
This season is far from over. The Cardinals just threw their best three pitchers at the Reds. Anything less than a sweep should have been considered a disappointment for them, IMO. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the Reds are going to fold after losing three straight games. I think they'll get hot again and win somewhere around 90 games. Will that be enough to reach the playoffs? We'll have to wait and see. I like the future of this team. We're set up to contend for a long time, IMO. It's just up to the F.O. to bring in a couple of key pieces to push the team over the top.

Who did the Reds throw at the Cards?

This was a very deflating series for me. They were outscored 21 to 8-at home- and it didn't seem that close. I'm pretty bummed.

IslandRed
08-11-2010, 06:52 PM
In one respect, this shows the dangers of attaching a postseason level of importance to a three-game series in early August and being a little too concerned about proving themselves, getting respect, and all those things. The team was wound too tight and just didn't play good baseball.

On the plus side, every time this season I thought the Reds might have taken a waterline hit, they came back and started winning again. A week from now, we might be right back to two games ahead. And the next time a series feels like a must-win, they'll be just a little bit older and wiser about it.

mth123
08-11-2010, 07:33 PM
The Cards threw 3 guys all with more than 20 starts on the season and ERAs below 3.00. The Reds have none of those. From this starting point all other things flow.

BABIP isn't always about luck.

cincrazy
08-11-2010, 07:44 PM
Oh brother, the sleeping giant theory. This is the Cards MO, win with the top 3, pray the rest of the time.

I'll eat my words if they go on a tear from here, but I see more floundering on the horizon due to little on the staff, including the bullpen, after Crissy, Garcia, and Wainwright. And Pujols is hurt and could become unplayable at any time. He's playing through it, but that could change at anytime.

Garcia didn't look all that great to me Tuesday night. He's not going to be the pitcher down the stretch that he was early in the year. I'm not indicating that he'll be terrible, but he's not going to be "elite" as he was. And that could spell big trouble for them.

With that being said, they're a damn good team, and showed us what big time baseball is all about. I have no doubt in my mind, however, that we'll regroup.

osuceltic
08-11-2010, 07:50 PM
The Cards threw 3 guys all with more than 20 starts on the season and ERAs below 3.00. The Reds have none of those. From this starting point all other things flow.

BABIP isn't always about luck.

Bingo. There was nothing lucky or flukey about this series. It was a butt-kicking in all aspects.

jojo
08-11-2010, 07:51 PM
The Cards threw 3 guys all with more than 20 starts on the season and ERAs below 3.00. The Reds have none of those. From this starting point all other things flow.

Right and this might be a real problem in the home stretch.

HokieRed
08-11-2010, 07:52 PM
A whole lot of people are starting to sound like FCB. Where is he, by the way?

Rojo
08-11-2010, 07:56 PM
A whole lot of people are starting to sound like FCB. Where is he, by the way?

Banquished.

lollipopcurve
08-11-2010, 07:57 PM
I was not impressed by Garcia in this series. They're skipping him in his next start. He's a bit tired and has never gone over 150 innings. I figure Westbrook is their real #3 down the stretch.

Long way to go, folks. The road this team is on does not belong to defeatists any more.

jojo
08-11-2010, 08:04 PM
I was not impressed by Garcia in this series. They're skipping him in his next start. He's a bit tired and has never gone over 150 innings. I figure Westbrook is their real #3 down the stretch.

Long way to go, folks. The road this team is on does not belong to defeatists any more.

I thought Garcia was very unimpressive last night, frustratingly so as a matter of fact. I'm not sure what the defeatist thing is all about though.

SMcGavin
08-11-2010, 08:31 PM
I think the Cardinals are a team built for winning in the playoffs, which they expect to participate in every year.

In a 7 game series with 2 days off, they can pitch those 3 hammers twice each, if they choose.

The Reds are a deeper team, overall, but their best SP would only be #4 on that team.

I think it will be a great race to the finish, and maybe both teams make the playoffs. I do not think this Reds team would do well in a playoff situation, but I do expect that the Cardinals would.

But for the Reds, making the playoff would be a great first step.

You took the words out of my mouth. This series was like a playoff series with the Cards using their top three guys. In that type of series the Cards are better. Over the next couple of months, when you are going to need more than 3 pitchers, the Reds are right there with them.

It's three games. Yes, this sucked, but it's three games. We are one game back in the division, a half game back in the wildcard. Long way to go guys.

Mario-Rijo
08-11-2010, 08:42 PM
The Cards threw 3 guys all with more than 20 starts on the season and ERAs below 3.00. The Reds have none of those. From this starting point all other things flow.

BABIP isn't always about luck.

Quite true, however their defense played well and balls were right at them the opposite goes for us I don't think their quite as good as they played and we aren't quite as bad as we played. In essence our good players didn't do much of anything and their worse players jelled quite nicely this series with their good ones. There was some luck involved, this series wasn't a true indicator of how good both teams are.

HokieRed
08-11-2010, 08:48 PM
I thought Garcia was very unimpressive last night, frustratingly so as a matter of fact. I'm not sure what the defeatist thing is all about though.

Agree. Time to just get going. They could use an unexpected lift from somebody, though. I hope the plan isn't to move Homer to the pen. I'd put him in the rotation if he's ready and see if he's not ready to finally be the equalizer. This situation might just bring it out in him.

mbgrayson
08-11-2010, 08:49 PM
I see three or four things that happened to the Reds:

1. The Cards had better starting pitchers. Carpenter and Wainwright were great, and Garcia was ok. Leake was bad (6 ERs in 3.2 innings), Cueto fair(4 ERs in 5.1 innings), and Arroyo (4 ERs in 5 innings) fair at most. Even if the Reds pen was perfect, we lose 2 of 3, and tie yesterday. As others have mentioned, the Cards #4 and #5 are inferior to our starters, but this was a 3 game series, and they had their best lined up for us. How much bettter would we have done with Volquez and Wood?

2. The Cards got the big hits with runners on base. Look at their HRs: grand slam today by Rasmus, grand slam by Schumaker, and one solo shot by Molina. We had one solo shot by Ramon. Their HRs produced 9 runs, ours 1. Even if you grant that they got 'lucky' with a number of cheap seeing eye singles, the HRs alone out scored the Reds production for the entire series.

3. Our big hitters didn't produce, and the other Reds didn't pick up the slack. Votto, Phillips, and Rolen were a combined 5/34 with 4 BBs. The Cardinals got great production from Holiday, Pujols, and Rasmus (14 for 37, 6 BBs, and 1 HR).

4. None of the games were that close. Scores of 7-3, 8-4, and 6-1 were humiliating.

Still, this was only three games, albeit important games. I'm glad they have an off day tomorrow. They need to get back to work this weekend vs. Florida.

OldXOhio
08-11-2010, 11:38 PM
I think it was pretty simple. They are a playoff team, we're a cute story. We got absolutely destroyed. Play with the stats all you want.

All of that from a three game series that still only leaves us 1 game out? And with 50 still to play. I'd have loved to see us win 2/3 but even that wouldn't have defined anything other than it's still a tight race, one that should go down to the end. I think some folks get so caught up in the moment, they forget what a marathon a pennant race really is. A three game series does not define this team. It's play overall leading up to the final stretch and then it's success with the season on the line will be far more telling. All these last three days did is affirm what we are up against: a good team. Then again, so are the Reds. And there's still much baseball to be played.

WVRedsFan
08-12-2010, 12:00 AM
I learned a lot aobut this team in this series:

1. Our pitching is young for the most part. Leake is hitting a wall - that was obvious before and a loss was expected. Cueto is immature and the hubub at the beginning of the game threw him off his game. Arroyo just had one of his bad outings. It really didn't matter because their pitching just shut our offense down. If Leake, Cueto, and Arroyo have their normal games, we still lose all three.

2. Brandon Phillips' comments prove a point as old as sports. Keep your mouth shut and play. It was the reason for the brawl and the renewed Cardinal attitude. Big mistake.

3. The team has a big test before them. We will now see what they are made of.

I would like to think that they'll pick themselves us, dust themselves off, and go back to the business of winning games, but you just never know. It seems it is always the Cardinals that do this to us and the rivalry is justified. Facing Josh Johnson on Friday is not the medicine this team needs.

Homer Bailey
08-12-2010, 12:15 AM
I'm very, very deflated from this series. I tried to not listen to the game today, because my Monday and Tuesday were ruined by Reds baseball. I got a text that Bronson was looking good, and tuned in just in time to Gomes to let the foul ball drop, and for Rasmus to hit the granny. I caused a bit of a scene at work. Not my best moment.

It's made me realize I'm way too invested in this team. I'm getting way too high with the wins, and way too low with the losses. I'm taking a hiatus this weekend, as I'm headed to Quantico, VA to see a buddy graduate from Officer Candidate School in the Marine Corps. I think that is going to give me a heavy dose of reality about what is important in life.

Cedric
08-12-2010, 12:39 AM
I'm very, very deflated from this series. I tried to not listen to the game today, because my Monday and Tuesday were ruined by Reds baseball. I got a text that Bronson was looking good, and tuned in just in time to Gomes to let the foul ball drop, and for Rasmus to hit the granny. I caused a bit of a scene at work. Not my best moment.

It's made me realize I'm way too invested in this team. I'm getting way too high with the wins, and way too low with the losses. I'm taking a hiatus this weekend, as I'm headed to Quantico, VA to see a buddy graduate from Officer Candidate School in the Marine Corps. I think that is going to give me a heavy dose of reality about what is important in life.

It happens.. Just learn from it and move on.

I have a hard time doing anything in moderation and that type of focus has gotten me in big trouble before.

I had a major scare a few years back and I'm able to enjoy this GAME a ton better now.

Ltlabner
08-12-2010, 11:09 AM
They hit, pitched and fielded the ball well.

Across the board, we did not.

What will be interesting will be how they respond. If they go into a tailspin then it's going to get ugly. If they man up, dig down and go to work they stand a chance. The series hurt but doesn't have to be the death blow.

Either way, it's going to be a maturing process for the younger players and a chance for all that "veteran experience" to step up and lead by example.