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View Full Version : We don't have to beat the Cards...



sivman17
08-11-2010, 05:56 PM
we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
LAD (3 more games): 3-3
SF (3 more games): 2-2
COL (4 more games): 2-1
SD (3 more games): 1-3
We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
FLA (3 more games): 2-2
CHC (3 more games): 10-3
MIL (9 more games): 4-1
PIT (3 more games): 8-5
HOU (6 more games): 7-2
This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.

MikeThierry
08-11-2010, 09:54 PM
The logic seems sound but some of those sub .500 teams shouldn't be overlooked. FLA is always tough and Houston has been playing out of their minds as of late. I think they have scored the most runs since the all star break. They have a good young nucleus in Houston to make any game you play against them interesting.

mroby85
08-11-2010, 09:59 PM
The logic seems sound but some of those sub .500 teams shouldn't be overlooked. FLA is always tough and Houston has been playing out of their minds as of late. I think they have scored the most runs since the all star break. They have a good young nucleus in Houston to make any game you play against them interesting.

I agree with this. I think we'll know a lot after the west coast trip that always seems to do a number on the Reds. The Brewers are another team that is still scary when you consider a team has Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Ricky Weeks and Corey Hart, I don't care what they're record is, they're more than capable of taking a series. Josh Johnson starting off the Marlins series is another negative thing, you hope to miss him when you play Florida, but they aren't really a sub-500 team when he's on the hill. I'm interested to see what happens with the west coast trip, I think that will be a huge indicator of what's to come in the remainder of the season.

BRM13
08-11-2010, 10:02 PM
I thought before this series, and this series reinforces my opinion, that the Reds will win the division, but the Cardinals would have a better chance to win the WS.

The Cards have 2 dominant pitchers. They stacked their rotation to 'win' this series. That will work in any short series and that is why they are a threat in the post-season. The Reds are deeper, especially at the 4th and 5th spots (and 6th or 7th with Bailey and even Harang lurking out there), so over a long season, and we still have about 50 games left, that gives them an advantage.

These 3 games were bad, but they can definitely win 1 more game than the Cards just by pitching Travis Wood 8 or 9 times when the Cardinals have their #5 out there.

Defacto
08-11-2010, 10:03 PM
Even if the Reds don't win the division, they can still win the Wild Card. Look at teams that have won the Wild Card and have been in or won the World Series.

MikeThierry
08-11-2010, 10:07 PM
BRM, Westbrooke has been a real surprise for the Cards. He has pitched really well since coming over. I think its a combo of getting out of the AL, which artificially inflates the ERA's to begin with, and coming to a winning team. The way its set up for the Cardinals, they won't have to use a 5th starter for like a month due to having off days (they have I think 2 off days next week, for example). Now there is some minor controversy with Cards fans because the front starters won't get 6 days of rest. However, going with a 4 man rotation still gives them the best chance to win.


I also feel really bad for Johnson. I heard a stat that after the game that the bullpen blew for him is that he left the game like 6 or 7 times with the lead. He could easily have 4-6 extra wins if he was with the Reds or Cards.

Krawhitham
08-11-2010, 10:37 PM
No we don't have to beat them, I just hope they miss out on the Wild Card too. That rotation will kill in a 5 or 7 game series

sivman17
08-11-2010, 10:44 PM
I also agree that the Cardinals are more built for the playoffs than the Reds. Their top 3 pitchers are dominant and will keep them in any game.

But, that's why it's a 162 game season. I am confident that the Reds can win a lot of games down the stretch. If the Cards continue to play like they like did this series, they are going to a bunch of games too.

I have no idea what's going to happen but I do see it being a neck and neck race, just like it's been for the past 3 months. Someone posted a stat before showing they have been within 3 games of each over for over 90 days or something. I see no reason why that won't continue.

The only bad thing is people are going to be jumping overboard after we face Josh Johnson.

Hey Meat
08-11-2010, 11:14 PM
we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
LAD (3 more games): 3-3
SF (3 more games): 2-2
COL (4 more games): 2-1
SD (3 more games): 1-3
We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
FLA (3 more games): 2-2
CHC (3 more games): 10-3
MIL (9 more games): 4-1
PIT (3 more games): 8-5
HOU (6 more games): 7-2
This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.

Amen

mu4103
08-11-2010, 11:16 PM
Who cares, win those games and beat the Cards.

ezluke
08-12-2010, 09:23 PM
we just have to win more games than them. I know this sounds obvious, but I think everyone is making a big deal out of this series. Yes, the Cards are 10-5 against us this season and outplayed us in every aspect of the game this series. But, we only play them 3 more times.

As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.

The Reds have 16 more games this year against .500 or better teams, and 31 games against sub-.500 teams. In total (including the Cards), the Reds are 24-28 against .500+ teams and 40-23 against sub-.500 teams.

Removing the Cards from the equation, these are the remaining games the Reds have against .500+ teams and the record against them so far this year:
LAD (3 more games): 3-3
SF (3 more games): 2-2
COL (4 more games): 2-1
SD (3 more games): 1-3
We are 8-8 against these teams this season, and we have 13 more games against them.

Of the remaining losing teams the Reds play, the Reds are 31-13 against those teams so far this season. Those teams are:
FLA (3 more games): 2-2
CHC (3 more games): 10-3
MIL (9 more games): 4-1
PIT (3 more games): 8-5
HOU (6 more games): 7-2
This means that we have 24 more games against teams in which we have posted a .705 winning pct thus far. The Reds also play 7 games against Arizona, whom the Reds have not faced yet this season. Arizona is 45-69, so I expect the Reds to beat up on them.

Obviously it's painful to watch the Reds lose to the Cards, who are our biggest competition, but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot, unless we see them in the playoffs. But at this point, we can't worry about who we might face in the playoffs. The three remaining Cardinals games are in the first week of September, which means even that series won't play a huge part in the outcome of the division.

19 of the last 22 games are against sub-.500 teams.

If they play true to their winning pct against winning and losing teams so far, the Reds would go 7-9 against the remaining winning teams, and 20-11 against losing teams. This would be a 27-20 finish, which would put the Reds at 91-71 for the season. I know you can't predict remaining wins, but that's why it's called a prediction. I would be happy with a 91-win season, which I think is very reasonable. I also think it could give us a good shot at the playoffs.


I agree...mostly because I doubt either teams gets the wildcard spot. Just keep doing what we have done, win the division, and we won't have to worry about the Cards in a short play-off series.

In the playoff format the Cards are probably the best team in the NL, but their wholes on offense make them the 6th or so best team over 162 games. The Reds are the opposite...built well for the long haul because of depth, but depth isn't as important in the play-offs. History has shown us that you have to have an ace to do really well in the post-season, Reds don't have one, the Cards have two. The Giants have 1 with two more very close to that level...those are the two teams I most fear in a short series.

jmac
08-12-2010, 10:05 PM
I thought before this series, and this series reinforces my opinion, that the Reds will win the division, but the Cardinals would have a better chance to win the WS.

The Cards have 2 dominant pitchers. They stacked their rotation to 'win' this series. That will work in any short series and that is why they are a threat in the post-season. The Reds are deeper, especially at the 4th and 5th spots (and 6th or 7th with Bailey and even Harang lurking out there), so over a long season, and we still have about 50 games left, that gives them an advantage.

These 3 games were bad, but they can definitely win 1 more game than the Cards just by pitching Travis Wood 8 or 9 times when the Cardinals have their #5 out there.

Bingo buddy ! :beerme:

Yadi for Mayor
08-12-2010, 10:48 PM
As I posted in another thread, if you remove the Reds-Cards games, the Reds are 19-18 against .500 or better teams, while the Cards are 23-20.


If you remove all of the games the cards lost the cards are 63-0 and have a 1.000 winning percentage. Oh wait unfortunately all games during the season count.

lidspinner
08-12-2010, 10:59 PM
If you remove all of the games the cards lost the cards are 63-0 and have a 1.000 winning percentage. Oh wait unfortunately all games during the season count.

which is the exact reason why you just swept us and we are only a game out. we are simply winning ball games at almost the same rate you are....so if you slip up for a series and we dont, then we might just be 1 game up on you.....and if that just happens to fall at the end of the yeat then you might just be sitting at home....while we play in october....even if you sweep us labor day weekend in st louis.......ain't baseball awesome?

Hey Meat
08-12-2010, 11:03 PM
The Cardinals do have the Cubs on the slate for the weekend. Let's see where we stand after the weekend.

Yadi for Mayor
08-12-2010, 11:23 PM
which is the exact reason why you just swept us and we are only a game out. we are simply winning ball games at almost the same rate you are....so if you slip up for a series and we dont, then we might just be 1 game up on you.....and if that just happens to fall at the end of the yeat then you might just be sitting at home....while we play in october....even if you sweep us labor day weekend in st louis.......ain't baseball awesome?

yes it is

AintlifeGrande
08-12-2010, 11:57 PM
Be nice to win out,however the Reds more than likely are going to have to slay the two headed dragon to make the post season.

Kingspoint
08-14-2010, 01:54 AM
Re: We don't have to beat the Cards...

True.

They seem to always be beating themselves.

Seņor Rojo
08-14-2010, 05:31 PM
The Reds will have to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis in September. I don't see either of these teams taking off or faltering badly in the next few weeks. A three game series will be huge at that point in the season.

Kingspoint
08-14-2010, 08:25 PM
The Reds will have to beat the Cardinals in St. Louis in September. I don't see either of these teams taking off or faltering badly in the next few weeks. A three game series will be huge at that point in the season.

Yet, the Cardinals lose to the Cubbies today.

The Cardinals continue to beat themselves.

gmt
08-15-2010, 07:44 AM
Yeah the Cubs beat the Cardinals and the Reds beat the Marlins. Both games could have gone either way with both teams seeming to want to give the game away. The same could happen the next game. The problem I see is consistency, neither team can put together a significant number of "good" games together. I don't see one team rolling over and both teams have the tools to win a lot more than they have so far. I'm surprised there isn't more talk about the Braves, Phillies, Padres, Giants and maybe the Dodgers and Rockies. They as well as the Cardinals are potentially in the way of the Reds getting into the playoffs. Sure, win the division and you're in. Fall one game short to the Cardinals and it's still possible to be the wildcard, but there's a lot more to overcome than just the Cardinals. Being the wildcard isn't so bad as opposed to not being there at all. Either way, if you don't finish with more wins than either the east or west winners, it will be a road trip to start the playoffs.

MikeThierry
08-15-2010, 08:30 AM
I actually throw out who should win or who should lose when it comes to a Cubs/Cards series. The Cubs could be the worst team in baseball yet still will come in and play the Cards tough all the time. For the past couple of years, for example, the Cards have had a tough time winning at Wrigley. Its a traditional rivalry where you sort of have to throw all stats and what not out of the window.

Kingspoint
08-15-2010, 06:33 PM
....and the Cardinals continue to beat themselves.

Man, they're good at that.

They should write a book about it.

HARP3R
08-15-2010, 07:23 PM
The Reds may not have success against the Birds, but as many previous posters have pointed out, they don't have to.

The Reds have success against teams they should beat, while the Cardinals play down to their competition. I don't understand why the Cardinals can't play teams like the Cubs and the Astros well, while pounding teams like the Reds, Braves, and others who should be much stiffer competition.

It's an anomaly that will befuddle me until resolved, but from the outside looking in, I'd say the Reds are the team that will represent the Central in the postseason. Unless the Cardinals figure out how to beat the teams they should.

Vottomatic
08-15-2010, 07:28 PM
Good to see Lohse back. :D

Hey Meat
08-15-2010, 07:28 PM
I actually throw out who should win or who should lose when it comes to a Cubs/Cards series. The Cubs could be the worst team in baseball yet still will come in and play the Cards tough all the time. For the past couple of years, for example, the Cards have had a tough time winning at Wrigley. Its a traditional rivalry where you sort of have to throw all stats and what not out of the window.

Lou has Tony's number. It didn't stop with 1990's Reds.

HARP3R
08-15-2010, 07:30 PM
Good to see Lohse back. :D

No kidding.

The 5th spot in the rotation is certainly a black hole for the Cards. Lohse/Hawksworth/Suppan is not going to cut it. Plain and simple.

But with the amount of off-days the Cardinals have from here on out, Lohse won't need to pitch often. The Cards could easily go to a 4-man rotation for the next month. I doubt TLR does that, but it is possible.

Oh well. If they can win 3 out of 5 with Carp, Waino, and Garcia consistently, while taking a 4th here and there, they'll be in good shape.

MikeThierry
08-16-2010, 01:34 AM
No kidding.

The 5th spot in the rotation is certainly a black hole for the Cards. Lohse/Hawksworth/Suppan is not going to cut it. Plain and simple.

But with the amount of off-days the Cardinals have from here on out, Lohse won't need to pitch often. The Cards could easily go to a 4-man rotation for the next month. I doubt TLR does that, but it is possible.

Oh well. If they can win 3 out of 5 with Carp, Waino, and Garcia consistently, while taking a 4th here and there, they'll be in good shape.

Well, the Cards have pretty much had a 4 man rotation as many times as possible this year so it wouldn't surprise me if they continued the trend.

I said this in another post but I would definitely not take the Astro's for granted. They have a nice young nucleus and they might be a viable team in the next couple of years. I think they have actually scored the most runs of any team in baseball since the All Star break.

HARP3R
08-16-2010, 01:55 AM
Well, the Cards have pretty much had a 4 man rotation as many times as possible this year so it wouldn't surprise me if they continued the trend.

I said this in another post but I would definitely not take the Astro's for granted. They have a nice young nucleus and they might be a viable team in the next couple of years. I think they have actually scored the most runs of any team in baseball since the All Star break.

I won't take that away from them. They've really come out strong here in the second half.

Even in the first half though, when they weren't playing well, the Cards couldn't handle them. The Astros came here May 11-13, and the Cards just layed an egg. 3-game sweep at the hands of Myers, Rodriguez, and Bud (Cy Young) Norris. The Stros were here again August 2-4 coming off of 2 trades that sent away their two best players, came in and took 2 of 3 from the Birds, and outscored us 31-16. Embarrassing series.

I do agree though, they've started to form a good young nucleus with former Cardinals' farmhand Brett Wallace, Hunter Pence, and Brett Myers.

They have some ways to go if they want to revert back to their 2005 form.

texasdave
08-16-2010, 02:14 AM
Hunter Pence was never in the Cardinal's organization. Pence was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft by the Astros out of the University of Texas at Arlington. I don't believe Brett Myers ever was either. Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 1st round (12th) of the 1999 MLB June Amateur Draft.

HARP3R
08-16-2010, 02:22 AM
Hunter Pence was never in the Cardinal's organization. Pence was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft by the Astros out of the University of Texas at Arlington. I don't believe Brett Myers ever was either. Drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 1st round (12th) of the 1999 MLB June Amateur Draft.

I'm sorry. I didn't make my post clear.

I was only referring to Brett Wallace as the former Cardinals' farmhand.

texasdave
08-16-2010, 02:24 AM
I'm sorry. I didn't make my post clear.

I was only referring to Brett Wallace as the former Cardinals' farmhand.

That's cool. I read it as all three. No harm done.