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Texas Pete
08-11-2010, 07:39 PM
I'm kind of new to this site, but I have been following the Reds minor league system for a few years.

What are the long term thoughts/potential on Dorn by y'all?

He seems like a nice hitter. It looks like he is (26).

GIDP
08-11-2010, 07:43 PM
I'm kind of new to this site, but I have been following the Reds minor league system for a few years.

What are the long term thoughts/potential on Dorn by y'all?

He seems like a nice hitter. It looks like he is (26).

Platoon/bench player

LH version of Gomes with less flaws. Not a great comp but for the sake of argument thats probably the type of player you should expect.

GOYA
08-11-2010, 08:42 PM
Better defense than Gomes and will hit for better average. He could start for a lot of teams. The Reds don't seem to give him much credit for his accomplishments. He gets ragged on for his defense but he's not bad, really. Not above average, but not bad.

He looks a little like Gomer Pyle. :-)

Gomer Dorn, I call him.

Last year, one of the "acts" that they bring in featured a somewhat attractive Russian chick. Dorn's eyes were glued to her every time she was on the field. Maybe he has a hula-hoop fascination. ;-)

texasdave
08-11-2010, 08:48 PM
Attractive Russian chicks and hula hoops. Isn't minor league baseball great?

camisadelgolf
08-11-2010, 09:39 PM
Attractive Russian chicks and hula hoops. Isn't minor league baseball great?
It's one of the most underrated things in America. That's not to mention how cheap it is plus the fact that many stadiums have dollar beer night. You often don't have a single bad seat in the stadium. The players are very approachable if that's your thing. I could go on and on.

batsfan
08-11-2010, 10:33 PM
When Dorn gets hot, he hits monstrous HR's to right. I was completely convinced that when the Yankees traded for the #1 rule five draft pick, they would choose Dorn, as he seemed a perfect New Yankee Stadium hitter, and would have fit in their (at the time) outfield and DH holes. Come to think of it, he would be a perfect GABP hitter too, with the short right field, and though I think he would be better then Gomes in left (HE SHOULD HAVE CAUGHT THAT RASMUS FOUL!!!!!!), he has not played left very much this year at all.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2010, 03:51 AM
Definitely undervalued in the Reds org for some unknown reason. I would've cut Nix yesterday and brought Dorn up if it were up to me.

bucksfan2
08-12-2010, 12:34 PM
Definitely undervalued in the Reds org for some unknown reason. I would've cut Nix yesterday and brought Dorn up if it were up to me.

I think you could say he is definitely overvalued by many here on RZ.

I remember a lot of angry posts last year about Dorn being left unprotected for the Rule V draft only to see every team pass on him. I just don't see him doing anything at the major league level.

GOYA
08-12-2010, 01:18 PM
I just don't see him doing anything at the major league level.

What do you base that on? That no one claimed him?

GIDP
08-12-2010, 01:28 PM
I think you could say he is definitely overvalued by many here on RZ.

I remember a lot of angry posts last year about Dorn being left unprotected for the Rule V draft only to see every team pass on him. I just don't see him doing anything at the major league level.

Flawed thinking honestly. Nelson Cruz could have been picked up by anyone just a few seasons ago.

Is it possible that LH platoon bats just arent type of players you pick up in rule 5 drafts? I think that has a lot more to do with it.

thorn
08-12-2010, 01:41 PM
I wonder if Dorn didn't somehow factor into the reason they traded Dickerson? Maybe the front office felt he could deliver next year from the left side more than Dickerson.

GIDP
08-12-2010, 02:39 PM
Heisey and Stubbs combined with Dickerson injury history probably had much more to do with that than Dorn did.

fearofpopvol1
08-12-2010, 03:19 PM
I think you could say he is definitely overvalued by many here on RZ.

I remember a lot of angry posts last year about Dorn being left unprotected for the Rule V draft only to see every team pass on him. I just don't see him doing anything at the major league level.

What is overvalued about him? What stats would indicate that? I'm curious to hear your argument(s) against him and why you don't think he can contribute at the MLB level.

bucksfan2
08-12-2010, 03:45 PM
What is overvalued about him? What stats would indicate that? I'm curious to hear your argument(s) against him and why you don't think he can contribute at the MLB level.

His overall value is overvalued.

From the reports I have seen of Dorn he is an extreme split type hitter who plays poor defense. To me it is telling when a guy who can hit as well as Dorn can wasn't even given a shot at in the Rule V draft. Its a very cheep way to take a shot on a guy.

The Reds throughout his minor league career really haven't projected him to be a major league player. Maybe the Reds are wrong on this guy, but I doubt it.

GIDP
08-12-2010, 03:45 PM
Yea I dont think anyone thinks Dorn is going to be a regular at the major league level, but unless something goofy is out there that we dont know I fully expect him to be a decent major league LH bat. He might be able to start on some bad teams but yea hes probably good enough to be on the bench of about every major league team out there as long as he doesnt fall on his face.

GIDP
08-12-2010, 03:47 PM
Plenty of players are not taken in the rule 5 draft every year. That doesnt mean they arent good, it just means that a team didnt want to add him to their 40 man roster and carry him on the 25 man roster for a full season. Guys who basically are a LH LF/1b platoon guys probably arent very popular. Heck Rule 5 picks dont even happen that much as it is.

GOYA
08-12-2010, 04:19 PM
From the reports I have seen of Dorn he is an extreme split type hitter who plays poor defense.

So you've never seen him play?

bucksfan2
08-12-2010, 04:46 PM
So you've never seen him play?

Can't say I have. Just based off of reports I have seen.

IslandRed
08-12-2010, 10:32 PM
Dorn's the kind of guy who could probably put up half-decent numbers if given a chance, but his limitations will make it difficult to get one. His skill set boils down to a resume with one bullet: "Hits right-handed pitching." The role he'd slot into is very specific and not every major-league club has that role to offer. And it's not really that difficult to scrounge left-handed bench bats, which is probably why he went undrafted in Rule V and hasn't been plucked out of the system via trade.

It's also possible he has a known flaw that makes people think his minor-league numbers won't translate against big-league pitchers, but I haven't heard of anything specific like that.

gedred69
08-13-2010, 12:05 AM
Dorn can hit MLB right handed pitching, most likely better than Nix. (Probably hit LH pitchers better too, given the chance). Nix however is more versatile defensively. Only reason I can think of. (I always thought Nix would be great in a brawl, but,,, nah).

TRF
08-13-2010, 12:10 AM
His overall value is overvalued.

From the reports I have seen of Dorn he is an extreme split type hitter who plays poor defense. To me it is telling when a guy who can hit as well as Dorn can wasn't even given a shot at in the Rule V draft. Its a very cheep way to take a shot on a guy.

The Reds throughout his minor league career really haven't projected him to be a major league player. Maybe the Reds are wrong on this guy, but I doubt it.


Can't say I have. Just based off of reports I have seen.
Ah. the infamous reports.

scouting reports or guy with a beer at a game? :D

he's a career .884 OPS bat which includes an injury year in 2009 where he struggled at AAA. Yep, he's got some extreme splits. So does Gomes, but Dorn hits the hand he'd face 75% of the time.

texasdave
08-13-2010, 12:24 AM
The slash line for players who DH in the American League is this: .248/.326/.420/.746.
A club could have Dorn DH against righthanders, give regulars a rest at 1B or LF, and be available to pinch hit in the remainder of the games. I can certainly see a place for him in the A.L.

camisadelgolf
08-13-2010, 12:41 AM
The Mariners were dumb for not taking Dorn in the rule five draft.

As much as I don't like Nix, he's actually been very good for the Reds against RHP. Seeing as how his defense is much better than Dorn's, I'm not losing sleep because the Reds aren't high on Dorn. I just wish he would be added to the roster and packaged with someone for value.

Cedric
08-13-2010, 12:44 AM
It is absolutely not "cheap" to take a guy in the rule V draft. The roster spot is usually non existent. It's also much more common for pitchers to be grabbed in the rule V than hitters. Teams just don't have the ability to stash a bat that isn't very flexible.

GIDP
08-13-2010, 12:47 AM
The Mariners were dumb for not taking Dorn in the rule five draft.

As much as I don't like Nix, he's actually been very good for the Reds against RHP. Seeing as how his defense is much better than Dorn's, I'm not losing sleep because the Reds aren't high on Dorn. I just wish he would be added to the roster and packaged with someone for value.

The reason why most would want Dorn over Nix is because of Hesiey being on the major league roster. He filled that defensive OF role that Nix used to fill. Nix then was basically only around for the bat, and honestly he doesnt hit well enough to be a LH bat off the bench. When hes hot hes monster hot, but when hes cold hes cold as anyone. That basically ends up with a low .700 OPS in a platoon role with a very low BA. Dorn probably was the better guy to have.

Edmonds makes it all pointless now since hes easily an upgrade over Nix.

My post really has nothing to do with dorn :laugh:

camisadelgolf
08-13-2010, 02:20 AM
The reason why most would want Dorn over Nix is because of Hesiey being on the major league roster. He filled that defensive OF role that Nix used to fill. Nix then was basically only around for the bat, and honestly he doesnt hit well enough to be a LH bat off the bench. When hes hot hes monster hot, but when hes cold hes cold as anyone. That basically ends up with a low .700 OPS in a platoon role with a very low BA. Dorn probably was the better guy to have.

Edmonds makes it all pointless now since hes easily an upgrade over Nix.

My post really has nothing to do with dorn :laugh:
A low .700 OPS? For the Reds, he has a .788 OPS against RHP. Maybe Dorn could hit better than that, but I doubt he could do much better. I love Dorn's swing, and against RHP, he's no slouch, but I see him as a .750 OPS guy vs. RHP in the Major Leagues, and I'm being generous so I seem less stupid on the chance that I'm very wrong.

GOYA
08-13-2010, 02:47 AM
One thing that hasn't been mentioned about Dorn is his ability to take a walk. He's been in a slight hitting slump lately but his ability to get on base via a free pass has not been slowed down at all. His season OBP is about 90 points higher than his BA and that OBP leads the team among the regular players.

redsfandan
08-13-2010, 06:22 AM
I'm curious about how he would compare to Gomes. Even with his buyout included the difference between the two financially would probably be at least $1M. Heisey could be the starter in left with Dorn his backup.

schmidty622
08-13-2010, 10:03 AM
I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds go with an OF configured like this next year:

LF - Heisey/Dorn

CF - Stubbs/Heisey

RF - Bruce/Heisey

Ideally I'd like to see them go out and get a Brad Hawpe type guy to stick in left because he has proven he can rake against righties in the Bigs, but whos to say Dorn can't turn into that guy?

Mario-Rijo
08-13-2010, 10:20 AM
Agree with the majority on this one, completely undervalued by the big league club and it's F.O. and not at all overvalued on RZ. RZ sees him as a bench LHB who can hit with some pop, take a walk and play 1B/LF occasionally and not be a complete drag on the offense should he not be swinging the bat real well at a given time. And for a small market team he's a much better fit than Nix now and in the near future. If he is less than that I'd be shocked. He's being held back for one glaring reason, his foot speed isn't ideal and his power not quite enough to make up for it, thus he doesn't fit the mold of what this F.O./Manager appreciate.

bucksfan2
08-13-2010, 10:31 AM
The slash line for players who DH in the American League is this: .248/.326/.420/.746.
A club could have Dorn DH against righthanders, give regulars a rest at 1B or LF, and be available to pinch hit in the remainder of the games. I can certainly see a place for him in the A.L.

I guess my question is then why haven't any AL teams taken a flier on him? Why did one not take a flier on him in the Rule V draft to see if he could fill a need? Why haven't teams been beating down the Reds door trying to trade for him? It appears that he doesn't have a place in Cincy, why haven't teams traded for him?

In the minor leagues slash lines and OPS numbers aren't key. Its more how players project to play in the majors. There have been countless guys who people have wondered "why" haven't they made the big show yet. Why haven't they been given a chance? I subscribe to the theory that there is a reason why players aren't promoted and a reason why players are. I am a firm believer that if a player is good enough he will force himself onto a major league roster.

GIDP
08-13-2010, 10:42 AM
A low .700 OPS? For the Reds, he has a .788 OPS against RHP. Maybe Dorn could hit better than that, but I doubt he could do much better. I love Dorn's swing, and against RHP, he's no slouch, but I see him as a .750 OPS guy vs. RHP in the Major Leagues, and I'm being generous so I seem less stupid on the chance that I'm very wrong.

It all depends on if he finishes his season on the hot streak or the bad streak. Since his OPS is completely slugging driven and based off doubles. His track record against RH pitching is what I was using. Nix is a valuable player but he doesnt hit well enough for the role.

I would be surprised if a career .900+ OPS bat would only translate to .750 at the major league level. I wouldnt consider that being generous.

GIDP
08-13-2010, 10:46 AM
Agree with the majority on this one, completely undervalued by the big league club and it's F.O. and not at all overvalued on RZ. RZ sees him as a bench LHB who can hit with some pop, take a walk and play 1B/LF occasionally and not be a complete drag on the offense should he not be swinging the bat real well at a given time. And for a small market team he's a much better fit than Nix now and in the near future. If he is less than that I'd be shocked. He's being held back for one glaring reason, his foot speed isn't ideal and his power not quite enough to make up for it, thus he doesn't fit the mold of what this F.O./Manager appreciate.

The last line probably has a ton of truth. I dont know if the FO and Manager look at players as bench players. I think they look at every player as a potential starter. Which I guess isnt flawed thinking, but it normally builds a weak bench when you go for weaker hitting defensive minded (their opinion not mine) players. Look at the current roster, the only bad defender on it is Gomes for the most part. I think Cairo sucks but hes not bad like I would consider Gomes. I think its totally possible they just dont want a slow average fielder.

Mario-Rijo
08-13-2010, 10:55 AM
I guess my question is then why haven't any AL teams taken a flier on him? Why did one not take a flier on him in the Rule V draft to see if he could fill a need? Why haven't teams been beating down the Reds door trying to trade for him? It appears that he doesn't have a place in Cincy, why haven't teams traded for him?

In the minor leagues slash lines and OPS numbers aren't key. Its more how players project to play in the majors. There have been countless guys who people have wondered "why" haven't they made the big show yet. Why haven't they been given a chance? I subscribe to the theory that there is a reason why players aren't promoted and a reason why players are. I am a firm believer that if a player is good enough he will force himself onto a major league roster.

I think you skipped completely over the mention of Nelson Cruz by someone and if we look around we can find many others who fit a similar mold as Dorn. Teams miss on talent all the time. Care to address that?

GIDP
08-13-2010, 10:56 AM
I guess my question is then why haven't any AL teams taken a flier on him? Why did one not take a flier on him in the Rule V draft to see if he could fill a need? Why haven't teams been beating down the Reds door trying to trade for him? It appears that he doesn't have a place in Cincy, why haven't teams traded for him?

In the minor leagues slash lines and OPS numbers aren't key. Its more how players project to play in the majors. There have been countless guys who people have wondered "why" haven't they made the big show yet. Why haven't they been given a chance? I subscribe to the theory that there is a reason why players aren't promoted and a reason why players are. I am a firm believer that if a player is good enough he will force himself onto a major league roster.
Because hes not a great player. We are simply saying as a role player like a back up 1b occasional left fielder, and LH bat off the bench at league minimum he would be worth taking a look at. He's probably pretty replaceable if you look through the minors of a lot of teams. We dont really know the whole scenario. Holding a rookie bat on the 25 man roster all year is probably not something most managers or front office guys care to do. You can hide a pitcher, but hiding a bat can be like playing with a man short if the guy goes through rookie struggles.

Mario-Rijo
08-13-2010, 11:04 AM
The last line probably has a ton of truth. I dont know if the FO and Manager look at players as bench players. I think they look at every player as a potential starter. Which I guess isnt flawed thinking, but it normally builds a weak bench when you go for weaker hitting defensive minded (their opinion not mine) players. Look at the current roster, the only bad defender on it is Gomes for the most part. I think Cairo sucks but hes not bad like I would consider Gomes. I think its totally possible they just dont want a slow average fielder.

Excellent point, never quite thought of it in those terms.

GIDP
08-13-2010, 11:14 AM
I guess I should clarify "weaker hitting" bench, because if a starter does go down I'm sure most teams would rather go with the good fielding weaker bat, over the good hitting bad defensive player.

bucksfan2
08-13-2010, 11:33 AM
I think you skipped completely over the mention of Nelson Cruz by someone and if we look around we can find many others who fit a similar mold as Dorn. Teams miss on talent all the time. Care to address that?

Ok Nelson Cruz. Is he the rule or an exception. Im sorry im not buying into the Dorn hype. Maybe he eventually finds himself onto a major league roster. But often there is more than meets the eye when you are talking about a minor league player.

redsfandan
08-13-2010, 11:37 AM
I guess my question is then why haven't any AL teams taken a flier on him? Why did one not take a flier on him in the Rule V draft to see if he could fill a need? Why haven't teams been beating down the Reds door trying to trade for him? It appears that he doesn't have a place in Cincy, why haven't teams traded for him?

In the minor leagues slash lines and OPS numbers aren't key. Its more how players project to play in the majors. There have been countless guys who people have wondered "why" haven't they made the big show yet. Why haven't they been given a chance? I subscribe to the theory that there is a reason why players aren't promoted and a reason why players are. I am a firm believer that if a player is good enough he will force himself onto a major league roster.
There's probably alot of productive players that don't get picked in the Rule V or players that pass through waivers that shouldn't. Dorn doesn't seem like the type of player that teams trade for. He seems more like a player added to get a deal done. That doesn't mean that player can't end up being productive though. There's just not as much hype attached.

Texas Pete
08-13-2010, 05:15 PM
Thanks for the info y'all.

GOYA
08-13-2010, 05:20 PM
Since his OPS is completely slugging driven and based off doubles.

Are you talking about Dorn?

camisadelgolf
08-13-2010, 05:49 PM
Are you talking about Dorn?
Nix.

GIDP
08-13-2010, 06:13 PM
Yea I'm talkin about Nix.

Mario-Rijo
08-13-2010, 10:39 PM
Ok Nelson Cruz. Is he the rule or an exception. Im sorry im not buying into the Dorn hype. Maybe he eventually finds himself onto a major league roster. But often there is more than meets the eye when you are talking about a minor league player.

So in other words you have no idea you are just going with the odds that because he hasn't gotten a shot he has no worth at the major league level. Ok fair enough.