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View Full Version : Homer Bailey: Rotation or Pen



Caveat Emperor
08-16-2010, 05:56 PM
You be the GM. What do you with Mr. Bailey down the stretch.

Keep in mind the following facts:

1. Homer Bailey is out of options -- so it has to be the pen or the rotation unless you intend on just cutting him.

2. Bailey was 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA in September of 2009 (albeit against some non-stellar competition).

3. Anyone sent to the minors (to possibly make room for Bailey in the rotation) would have to be on the active roster of 8/31 to be eligible for post-season play (unless they're on the DL at that time).

4. The team is currently without a long-man in the bullpen, but also hasn't found itself in many situations where a long-man would be needed.

5. Bailey has never pitched out of the bullpen with any regularity.

Choose wisely.

nemesis
08-16-2010, 06:00 PM
Best pure stuff on the Staff when he has control of it. Can't put that in the pen.

Redsfan320
08-16-2010, 06:07 PM
I insert him in the rotation for Leake at the moment, and probably send Leake down and limit his innings in AAA.

320

Captain Hook
08-16-2010, 06:10 PM
Rotation or bust imo.If the team wants him in the pen for the remainder of the season I can understand but next year he should be back in the rotation.If they don't think he belongs there they should trade him this off season.

I don't buy it that Homer has the makeup of a BP guy or even closer.Seems like he struggles early in many of his starts this year but then settles down.I can't see how anyone could see this and then put him in the pen.

Homer Bailey
08-16-2010, 06:25 PM
No need to guess how I voted :cool:

steig
08-16-2010, 06:30 PM
I insert him in the rotation for Leake at the moment, and probably send Leake down and limit his innings in AAA.

320

I agree with putting Homer in Leake's spot in the rotation but I would keep Leake up if we want him available in the post season. I still wouldn't let Leake start again until mid september at the earliest to preserve his innings.

The Voice of IH
08-16-2010, 06:33 PM
with the big 4 still in Louisville waiting to take this team to the playoffs, I think he fits perfectly in the rotation (replacing Leake)

BTW, Big 4 is: Burton, Chapman, Isringhouse, and Springer (DL)

redsfandan
08-16-2010, 06:34 PM
Get Leake a couple starts in AAA and then put him in the Reds bullpen. Homer won't have a limitation on how many innings he can pitch the rest of the year. Leake does.

kbrake
08-16-2010, 06:35 PM
With everyone else, Bailey in the rotation Leake to AAA.

Rojo
08-16-2010, 07:02 PM
Make Leake the long-man.

lollipopcurve
08-16-2010, 07:21 PM
Most unanimous poll ever.

Brutus
08-16-2010, 07:34 PM
Most unanimous poll ever.

You know, now that you've said it, there will be someone to vote "pen" just to ruin the poll LOL

nemesis
08-16-2010, 07:38 PM
You know, now that you've said it, there will be someone to vote "pen" just to ruin the poll LOL

Cue FCB for the DFA/other route. Lol...

PuffyPig
08-16-2010, 07:51 PM
Cue FCB for the DFA/other route. Lol...

Don't you remember, FCB traded him for Jennings.

HokieRed
08-16-2010, 07:59 PM
Best stuff in the organization since the day he was drafted. The best chance we have to win the division this year--end of story.

Patrick Bateman
08-16-2010, 08:16 PM
Don't you remember, FCB traded him for Jennings.

And for Dontrelle.....

Edd Roush
08-16-2010, 08:32 PM
I insert him in the rotation for Leake at the moment, and probably send Leake down and limit his innings in AAA.

320

I second this motion. Let Leake pitch in AAA for a few 2-3 inning stints and warm him up for long-man/mop-up duties in September.

Brutus
08-16-2010, 08:48 PM
This is bordering on unprecedented poll action.

Reds1
08-16-2010, 10:20 PM
and the redzone has spoken

fisch11
08-16-2010, 11:26 PM
Best pure stuff on the Staff when he has control of it. Can't put that in the pen.

I respectfully disagree with "best pure stuff". Nobody in this rotation or bullpen misses bats like Volquez' stuff (see Volquez swing and miss rate thread for more). I think with the innings conservation of Mike Leake down the stretch you have got to give his innings to Homer.

nemesis
08-17-2010, 01:59 AM
Ok...

Who are the 2 posters ruining the Harmony and Love in the room?

In the Bullpen 1 1.69%
DFA / Other 1 1.69%

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 02:04 AM
I respectfully disagree with "best pure stuff". Nobody in this rotation or bullpen misses bats like Volquez' stuff (see Volquez swing and miss rate thread for more). I think with the innings conservation of Mike Leake down the stretch you have got to give his innings to Homer.

I agree with your Volquez point. And I don't get this best "stuff" stuff with Homer, apparently people feel velocity = stuff (but even then he'd fall short to Volquez). The guy doesn't miss a ton of bats which is a pretty good indicator of stuff. When he is on his splitter is pretty good, I'll give him that much but not even close to any of Volquez's pitches. If anything Homer might have the worst "stuff" on the staff.

Anyway I voted rotation because I feel like they let him start this last game and he did well so now they are pretty much obligated to give him another one. That and Leakes innings have to be curbed a bit at some point. I'd put Leake in the bully and use him every 3 or so days for about an inning.

nemesis
08-17-2010, 02:19 AM
I respectfully disagree with "best pure stuff". Nobody in this rotation or bullpen misses bats like Volquez' stuff (see Volquez swing and miss rate thread for more).

Marmol misses tons of bats...

Mariano Rivera does not...

Who has the better stuff?

Missing Bats doesn't equal better stuff. Getting people out with what you have is where I see Bailey as better. When he is on, he is unhittible. more so than anyone in the Reds rotation.

NDRed
08-17-2010, 02:19 AM
Amazing what one quality start will do.

Did everyone forget the 1st half of this season or is everyone remembering the last 6 weeks of last year? Must be that lightening in a bottle thing. A month ago most would have traded Homer for ANYTHING useful.

I still would.

I really, really, hope I am wrong because we need him!

The Operator
08-17-2010, 02:46 AM
Actually, Homer was pitching very well at the time of his injury and most people here recognized that. I know him going on the DL certainly bummed me out.

Homer really impressed me Sunday. His fastball seemed to have a good bit of movement on it as well - something Homer doesn't always have. In fact, the only real deficiency with his stuff is his lack of movement, IMO. But he had it Sunday.

WebScorpion
08-17-2010, 03:06 AM
I'd send Leake to AAA to keep loose and let Homer take his spot.

I thought the rule on playoff roster was they had to be on the active roster any time on or BEFORE Aug 30th. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-think005.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

reds1869
08-17-2010, 07:27 AM
No doubt in my mind Homer should be in the rotation. He has, in the last year, shown flashes of being the Homer Bailey we all hoped for. I think he can still turn into a legitimate TOR starter and is already a solid guy for every fifth day if healthy. Putting him in the pen would do him no favors.

lollipopcurve
08-17-2010, 09:00 AM
Sunday was the best I've ever seen Homer's secondary stuff -- he threw all 3 of his secondary pitches (curve, slider, split) for strikes, and made some big pitches with them when he was behind in the count. Often, in the past, he'd be relegated to just 1 secondary offering, because the others weren't working or whatever. Sunday his whole repertoire looked good. If he's able to solidify that going forward, that's a tremendous boost to the rotation.

Just keep him with Hanigan (or Corky in September -- Bailey has cited Corky a number of times as a guy he works well with).

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 09:43 AM
Marmol misses tons of bats...

Mariano Rivera does not...

Who has the better stuff?

Missing Bats doesn't equal better stuff. Getting people out with what you have is where I see Bailey as better. When he is on, he is unhittible. more so than anyone in the Reds rotation.

When Volquez is on he's not unhittable? Homer is moreso? Let's say what you are saying is true which I disagree with but anyway when neither are on their game Volquez is easily better, that too me is more telling. The question here is what is the best indicator of stuff, to me the best we have is results. A guy who has great stuff should miss alot of bats and/or typically just isn't squared up well. Neither of those is the case with Homer whereas Volquez has had some positive results. I think a case could be made that everyone in the rotation has better stuff than Homer. JMO

Ghosts of 1990
08-17-2010, 10:21 AM
There is someone amongst us who thinks he should be DFA'd?

Not to single out, but that's terrible.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 10:24 AM
I voted rotation, but I wonder how this would have looked prior to his DL stint. In reality, I only want him in the rotation if he can continue to be a 4.50 ERA or better kind of guy. If he can't, I think his stuff would play well in the bullpen. Long term, I would not be at all surprised to see him spend the majority of his career in the pen.

As for upside, nearly every pitcher in baseball can be dominant when he's on. It's a question of how often he's on.

lollipopcurve
08-17-2010, 10:43 AM
Long term, I would not be at all surprised to see him spend the majority of his career in the pen.

I would. He generally starts slowly and gets better as the game goes on. Supposedly he takes a while to get ready, too. Don't see Homer making the transition.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 10:45 AM
I would. He generally starts slowly and gets better as the game goes on. Supposedly he takes a while to get ready, too. Don't see Homer making the transition.

I agree completely. I just don't see Homer fitting in the pen with the way he warms.

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 10:57 AM
If he can consistently have the kind of location he had in his last start, Homer will not only not be in the pen, he'll be a TOR starter.

Homer Bailey
08-17-2010, 11:11 AM
Didn't get to watch this weekend... Is Homer still throwing his splitter?

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 11:15 AM
this is all great, and homer did a fantastic job in his first outing back, but what happens if he gets rocked in an outing? do we give him the benefit of the doubt, or do we look at one start (like we are now) and throw him out of the Nati?

membengal
08-17-2010, 11:16 AM
If you read the thread IH, you will see many pointing to more than just this last start...

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 11:18 AM
yes, but he has been out of the game for so long, you have to expect that he will come back to earth here soon. Do we ride the wave or is Maloney still available?

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 11:21 AM
Didn't get to watch this weekend... Is Homer still throwing his splitter?

He was throwing the splitter but my sense was that he was not throwing it as much. He had terrific location with his four seamer, despite the fact the umpire had very little horizontal plate (though actually I thought DJ, or whatever his hot-headed little name is, did have a pretty consistent plate, esp. high-low.)

fisch11
08-17-2010, 11:29 AM
Marmol misses tons of bats...

Mariano Rivera does not...

Who has the better stuff?

Missing Bats doesn't equal better stuff. Getting people out with what you have is where I see Bailey as better. When he is on, he is unhittible. more so than anyone in the Reds rotation.

Obviously, the debate here is over the subjective term "stuff". Marmol absolutely has way better "stuff" than Rivera. However, Rivera knows how to "pitch" as opposed to just thowing nasty, unhittable pitches. Marmol can throw a slider that you won't even come close to, and River can break your bat with a cutter. Now I may debate that when Homer can spot his fastball and get his off speed pitches over for strikes, that he may be a better "pitcher" than that of Volquez. The same argument can be made with Marmol and Rivera as you chose. But back to the original debate, no way does Homer have better "stuff." This subjective debate could be better aimed with, "What is your definition of 'stuff'?" I define "stuff" as pitches that move or break so much that hitters can't make contact at all (i.e. swing and miss %, "unhittable")

membengal
08-17-2010, 11:40 AM
yes, but he has been out of the game for so long, you have to expect that he will come back to earth here soon. Do we ride the wave or is Maloney still available?

Did you take a look at his rehab starts?

And why are you defaulting to Maloney?

Brutus
08-17-2010, 11:42 AM
It wasn't just about one start for me.

Homer, this year, has a 4.92 ERA. Looking more closely, he's got 7.15 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, giving up right around a home run an inning and has been throwing more strikes. His FIP is actually 4.38. I would have been up for trading him in the right deal, i.e. the Reds getting a Cliff Lee or someone like that, but I also think he can be a valuable commodity down the stretch.

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 01:13 PM
I think now or this offseason is exactly the wrong time to trade Homer Bailey.

membengal
08-21-2010, 01:22 AM
Homer Bailey. You keep on going on with your bad self.

Those two outings coming off the DL are a sight for sore eyes. If Homer continues to lock in and has a finish to this season like he did to 2009, well, that would be swell.

oregonred
08-21-2010, 01:34 AM
I thought Redszone traded Homer for Jermaine Dye?? He's still as Red.

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2010, 01:39 AM
Homer was very impressive again tonight. Good fastball command again tonight combined with a nasty curveball and also a few quality sliders/splitters. Whatever that pitch was to strike out Belliard to end the 7th inning was just filthy.

Homer Bailey's last four starts not including the start where he was injured in Cleveland:

9 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K
7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K
7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Phhhl
08-21-2010, 01:41 AM
The Cubs' and Dodgers' lineups are crap right now. But, baseball is a game of concentration, and when a man goes out and pitches like Homer has his last two outtings it tells me the guy is focusing all the considerable talent he has to bear on accomplishing a goal. He definately seems to be maturing.

How can you not be excited by what we saw out of Bailey tonight? It is what we hoped to see out of Volquez when he returned from the dl, and btw THAT could still happen as he continues to calibrate himself after a year off. The Reds may not have the clear hammer at the top, but there are now a good three or four starting pitching candidates who are more than capable of dominating a ballgame whenever they take the mound, against anyone. I have seen the Boof Bonsers that have started games in the postseason in recent years, and these guys are different from those post season bylines. This is not blindly rolling the dice with journeymen who have turned in good seasons through trickery or statistical magic. Bailey, Cueto, Arroyo, Wood, Leake and Volquez are talented.

If the Reds can survive the Giants series while the Cards play the Pirates with anything close to the lead they currently enjoy, it is going to be fun.

oregonred
08-21-2010, 01:44 AM
Perfectly stated Santo. Reds gotta maintain the lead or only lose one game in the standings in SF while the Cards get fat on the Pirates.

Homer Bailey
08-21-2010, 03:11 AM
Homer Bailey. You keep on going on with your bad self.

;)

(There's no blushing emoticon)

Mario-Rijo
08-21-2010, 03:53 AM
I'll say this about Homer he gave one really good interview afterwards I was genuinely impressed with it. I thought he done a good job of dispelling the notion that the 12 game losing streak was something this team was even remotely thinking about. He painted a really good picture of the team their mindset and their resolve. Well done Homer and nicely pitched game as well. :thumbup:

traderumor
08-21-2010, 09:58 AM
Homer really looks like he is developing right on schedule despite the growth stunt he got from prior management. First pitch strikes, didn't hit the 100 pitch mark until the 7th inning, and really did not have anyone square up on him the entire game.

Now, if he could just get over his fear of challenging Jamey Carroll and Brad Ausmus (what is it about Jamey Carroll that causes pitchers to throw him balls? Every time I flip on the Dodgers, he is getting walks).

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 10:13 AM
which one, Bailey or Volquez, is your number 4 starter? (I am assuming that Wood has earned a 3 spot)

oneupper
08-21-2010, 02:34 PM
Now, if he could just get over his fear of challenging Jamey Carroll and Brad Ausmus (what is it about Jamey Carroll that causes pitchers to throw him balls? Every time I flip on the Dodgers, he is getting walks).

Thinking the exact same thing. The guy as 3 HRs in the last three YEARS.
But he's small (5-9), so its a small zone and he's pesky and fouls off a ton of pitches. (4.38 P/PA).
You can see why the guy is 36 and still around. Scrappy little dude.

Ghosts of 1990
08-21-2010, 07:14 PM
which one, Bailey or Volquez, is your number 4 starter? (I am assuming that Wood has earned a 3 spot)

Bailey is a safer option I think

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2010, 09:27 PM
which one, Bailey or Volquez, is your number 4 starter? (I am assuming that Wood has earned a 3 spot)

Way too early to say. If things keep on like they are....Volquez is my number FIVE starter. He's just too inconsistent right now. Cueto's the #1, some might be pitching better than he is, but he's MORE than earned it over the course of the season. Wood is still pretty wet behind the ears, so if I'm gonna bump someone down the ladder a rung or two...it's him. So for me, I put Homer in the 3 slot. There's also a secondary reason for this. The wide range of types of pitchers we have. Cueto to Bronson to Homer to Wood to Edinson. Hard, soft, hard, soft, hard. I don't want teams to get comfortable against our hard throwers too easily. Breaking them up in my mind is a great idea. Kind of the same way I'd like to see Herrera handled. Coming in after Arroyo is a horrible way to use Danny. But after Volquez. :eek:

Patrick Bateman
08-21-2010, 09:33 PM
DFA him... right NDRed? lol

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2010, 09:35 PM
DFA him... right NDRed? lol

To be fair, it said DFA or OTHER. I think he was voting for trading Homer.

Patrick Bateman
08-21-2010, 09:37 PM
To be fair, it said DFA or OTHER

So what would that be right now? To try to pass him throuw waivers and trade him for some other non waiver claimed players?

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2010, 09:38 PM
So what would that be right now? To try to pass him throuw waivers and trade him for some other non waiver claimed players?

I'm not saying I agree with him. Only showing that he probably wasn't suggesting DFA'ing him. I think Homer's gonna be a #1 starter still. Always have.