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Brutus
08-17-2010, 11:47 AM
Looking down the road, the Reds have a saturation of starting pitchers. And this is a good problem to have, because we're not talking about Jimmy Haynes, Elizardo Ramirez, Eric Milton or Brandon Claussen. We're talking about honest-to-goodness pitching talent.

Perhaps, for now, it's true the Reds are missing a true "ace." However, that could be different in a year or two. Assuming Aaron Harang will not be brought back next year (and possibly Bronson Arroyo), who should the Reds cut ties with, presumably using as trade bait, to clear the path for a set rotation?

Consider not just who you like the least but who would fetch the best return.

Kc61
08-17-2010, 11:50 AM
Looking down the road, the Reds have a saturation of starting pitchers. And this is a good problem to have, because we're not talking about Jimmy Haynes, Elizardo Ramirez, Eric Milton or Brandon Claussen. We're talking about honest-to-goodness pitching talent.

Perhaps, for now, it's true the Reds are missing a true "ace." However, that could be different in a year or two. Assuming Aaron Harang will not be brought back next year (and possibly Bronson Arroyo), who should the Reds cut ties with, presumably using as trade bait, to clear the path for a set rotation?

Consider not just who you like the least but who would fetch the best return.

I've been thinking about this. I assume the Reds will keep Arroyo or get a different veteran starter in the off-season.

Just speculation - would they trade Cueto for a good outfielder?

Brutus
08-17-2010, 11:53 AM
I've been thinking about this. I assume the Reds will keep Arroyo or get a different veteran starter in the off-season.

Just speculation - would they trade Cueto for a good outfielder?

I definitely haven't ruled out the idea that they'll keep Arroyo, or try to sign someone.

I would like to think if the right leftfielder or shortstop came along, that would be sufficient grounds to trade one of these pitchers. Of course, I guess if they were feeling good about Cozart, they may not see a need to add a shortstop going forward.

mdccclxix
08-17-2010, 11:54 AM
None? How about a 6 man rotation!

Kc61
08-17-2010, 11:56 AM
I definitely haven't ruled out the idea that they'll keep Arroyo, or try to sign someone.

I would like to think if the right leftfielder or shortstop came along, that would be sufficient grounds to trade one of these pitchers. Of course, I guess if they were feeling good about Cozart, they may not see a need to add a shortstop going forward.

This is a very good thread because it would seem like a starting pitcher is the obvious trade bait for a very good position player.

I'm not sure Leake or Wood or Bailey brings that much back at this stage.

Given the Hamilton trade, the Reds won't likely trade Volquez unless they get a major chip back.

Chapman's upside is so great that I don't see him being traded.

Cueto seems the most logical to me, but he's a very fine pitcher and I'd like to see him stay a Red.

PuffyPig
08-17-2010, 11:59 AM
I'm not sure Leake or Wood or Bailey brings that much back at this stage.



I think any of those pitchers would bring a pretty good return, but I wouldn't trade any of them.

I'd keep them, along with Arroyo, Cueto, Chapman and Volquez.

Their performances will sort things out.

You can never have too much pitching.

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 12:02 PM
Oh dangit, I committed the cardinal sin I voted before I read. I voted Leake as I thought you were gonna ask who the odd man out of the rotation for the remainder of the season was gonna be.

My rotation would be....

Volquez
Cueto
Wood
Leake
Chapman

Or some semblance of that. I just am not a strong believer in Homer anymore (don't believe he is a TOR arm) but I think he has done enough to merit a fair return. If he has a nice run here at the end of this season I capitalize on it in a hurry. One other thing to consider here is that Volquez, Cueto and Bailey all are either eligible for arb. or will be coming up quick while the other 3 have a few years to go yet. You could make the argument for Volquez but I just like his talent better and believe he is already a TOR arm. So if I am spending money on 2 of them it's Cueto and Volquez hands down.

So Bailey is my actual pick as the odd man out, so disregard my selection of Leake and add a vote at the end for Homer.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 12:03 PM
I think any of those pitchers would bring a pretty good return, but I wouldn't trade any of them.

I'd keep them, along with Arroyo, Cueto, Chapman and Volquez.

Their performances will sort things out.

You can never have too much pitching.

Keeping an abundance just to sort things out will likely kill any chances of trading away your surplus for anything of value in return. Why not strike this offseason to improve the club?

If one of these guys will be in enough demand, take advantage of the market and move him for another piece. It won't do much good to sit on 7 starting pitchers just to take the best five. Now, if you let spring training dictate which one you trade... I think that is fine. But beyond opening day, I don't see an advantage to holding on to 7 guys, especially since 4 or 5 of them can't be optioned anyhow.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 12:04 PM
Very good question. Here is the way I would would handle this "problem".

Leake and Wood - They are the two I would most be inclined to keep. The appear to be guys who will eat innings while don't have a violent motion. Leake reminds me of Arroyo somewhat with a higher upside. At times Wood looks like Cliff Lee.

Bailey - His last start shows what he can bring. When he is repeating his delivery he has TOR stuff. I wouldn't trade Bailey because I like his potential but also because his trade value is relatively low.

Chapman - If he doesn't stick in the rotation he will be used in the pen. You don't trade 100+ MPH arms, especially when you went out and signed him to a big contract.

Cueto and Volquez - If one had to go I would be more inclined to trade one of these two. Don't necessarily like Cueto's size and his mental lapses. Volquez is coming off of TJ surgery with a violent motion. Both have very good stuff but just to me I see more risk in these two than the others. I think Cueto has the most trade value but Volquez may have the best overall stuff.

FWIW I expect to see a big move made over this off season.

Kc61
08-17-2010, 12:05 PM
Keeping an abundance just to sort things out will likely kill any chances of trading away your surplus for anything of value in return. Why not strike this offseason to improve the club?

.

I agree. I also feel the Reds will try and get a veteran pitcher this off-season, so the glut will continue.

Let's say the Reds trade away a Cueto. They still would have -

Veteran pitcher #1, Volquez, Chapman, Leake, Wood, Bailey.

Still six good starting pitchers.

Cedric
08-17-2010, 12:06 PM
I expect the Reds to try and trade Cueto. He's going to get real expensive fast.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 12:07 PM
I agree. I also feel the Reds will try and get a veteran pitcher this off-season, so the glut will continue.

Let's say the Reds trade away a Cueto. They still would have -

Veteran pitcher #1, Volquez, Chapman, Leake, Wood, Bailey.

Still six good starting pitchers.

BTW, Kc, I voted Bailey in the poll, but I do think Cueto makes the most sense for getting something very valuable in return.

Tornon
08-17-2010, 12:07 PM
I'm just scared Volquez is going to re-injure himself at some point.. maybe he could be shopped for something if he has a strong finish

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 12:09 PM
They should not just cut ties with the man left out. I think they need to keep the 6th in the bullpen in case of injury (which is bound to happen to one of them) Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harange in my mind are gone. And hopefully with that money we can go get a power hitting shortstop. someone young and better then Janish. heck we are picking up what? 20 million? I think that we can find a very suitable player with that to push the team over the top (which I am not sure if they are not already there)

TRF
08-17-2010, 12:11 PM
And this assumes both of Arroyo and Harang are let go after the season, something I don't see happening.

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 12:14 PM
and don't look now, but our bull pen also has young talent as well. the reds pitching wise is in a very good spot.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 12:14 PM
And this assumes both of Arroyo and Harang are let go after the season, something I don't see happening.

It doesn't really have anything to do with that, although Harang is gone... I think that is readily apparent with the way the Reds are treating his injury.

But I'm more talking about the future than necessarily Opening Day, 2011.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 12:16 PM
They should not just cut ties with the man left out. I think they need to keep the 6th in the bullpen in case of injury (which is bound to happen to one of them) Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harange in my mind are gone. And hopefully with that money we can go get a power hitting shortstop. someone young and better then Janish. heck we are picking up what? 20 million? I think that we can find a very suitable player with that to push the team over the top (which I am not sure if they are not already there)

If they exercise Arroyo's option, they could trade Cueto (or one of the others) and still have depth.

I think what they could get in return for one of these guys far outweighs the benefits of keeping them just to have pitching depth.

Hap
08-17-2010, 12:19 PM
I voted Volquez in the poll because he is the only one of the listed players whom has had elbow surgery. The powers that be might decide to build up his arm strength through proper use from the bullpen over the course of a season.

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 12:22 PM
If they exercise Arroyo's option, they could trade Cueto (or one of the others) and still have depth.

I think what they could get in return for one of these guys far outweighs the benefits of keeping them just to have pitching depth.

true, but I HATE the idea of trading young pitching. the Reds have lived with Cueto in his development years,. now I want the payoff.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 12:23 PM
If they exercise Arroyo's option, they could trade Cueto (or one of the others) and still have depth.

I think what they could get in return for one of these guys far outweighs the benefits of keeping them just to have pitching depth.

The key is how does Walt improve the club going into next season. Do 6 pitchers battling for 5 spots help out this club?

I actually would like to see Arroyo's option picked up, Webb offered an incentive laden contract (close to home and his ex-pitching coach), and one of the young guns traded for offensive help.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 12:26 PM
true, but I HATE the idea of trading young pitching. the Reds have lived with Cueto in his development years,. now I want the payoff.

Make no mistake: I don't particularly want to trade any of these guys. However, the Reds are in a very unique position where they could trade one of these guys for a very good return and potentially not bat an eye. It's an opportunity they really should cash in on.

Also, I would add that I don't trade any of these guys unless they get someone that is better than they already have. If they trade Cueto, I would expect them to get a very good position player in return, or else I wouldn't bother.

guttle11
08-17-2010, 12:27 PM
And this assumes both of Arroyo and Harang are let go after the season, something I don't see happening.

Harang's gone. Arroyo is 50/50, IMO.

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 12:32 PM
Make no mistake: I don't particularly want to trade any of these guys. However, the Reds are in a very unique position where they could trade one of these guys for a very good return and potentially not bat an eye. It's an opportunity they really should cash in on.

Also, I would add that I don't trade any of these guys unless they get someone that is better than they already have. If they trade Cueto, I would expect them to get a very good position player in return, or else I wouldn't bother.

Is there a list of free agents for next year that anyone knows about. Because I would rather take a look at that first before trading the feature ;)

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 12:41 PM
Is there a list of free agents for next year that anyone knows about. Because I would rather take a look at that first before trading the feature ;)

Yup here..

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/potential-free-agents-for-2011.html

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 12:45 PM
BTW not trading off a #2 or #3 pitcher (Cueto) to keep a middle-bottom of the rotation guy (Bailey). I know alot of people believe different of Homer than I do but those of you willing to deal Cueto better be convinced this isn't the case.

membengal
08-17-2010, 12:48 PM
I keep thinking in the off-season that Walt could package Leake and Bailey and come back with a Grienke or a Josh Johnson or the like. If this team could take on the payroll, that is how you get your TOR...

Mario-Rijo
08-17-2010, 12:50 PM
I keep thinking in the off-season that Walt could package Leake and Bailey and come back with a Grienke or the like. If this team could take on the payroll, that is how you get your TOR...

Something like that would be pretty interesting. Assuming they were willing to extend Greinke I'd be all for that. Man hate to deal away Leake though....

membengal
08-17-2010, 12:51 PM
Yeah, well, me too. But if we want a hammer, that's how you trade for one, I think,

PuffyPig
08-17-2010, 01:04 PM
Keeping an abundance just to sort things out will likely kill any chances of trading away your surplus for anything of value in return. Why not strike this offseason to improve the club?

If one of these guys will be in enough demand, take advantage of the market and move him for another piece. It won't do much good to sit on 7 starting pitchers just to take the best five. Now, if you let spring training dictate which one you trade... I think that is fine. But beyond opening day, I don't see an advantage to holding on to 7 guys, especially since 4 or 5 of them can't be optioned anyhow.


If you can get 5 good years from 7 viable pitchers you have likely hit above average.

If the Cards had any depth behind their Big 3, they would have run off an hid from us by now, and they would still have Ludwick in the OF.

Good pitching doesn't decrease in value.

Of course it depends on the piece. Trading a guy like leake for a major-leage ready high end SS prospect would be acceptable, but we already have plenty of depth virtually everywhere.

If we trade pitching, it has to be for either a TOR starter like Greinke or Johnson, or for a high end premium prospect at a skill position.

nate
08-17-2010, 01:04 PM
The key is how does Walt improve the club going into next season. Do 6 pitchers battling for 5 spots help out this club?

Sure! Why not?


I actually would like to see Arroyo's option picked up, Webb offered an incentive laden contract (close to home and his ex-pitching coach), and one of the young guns traded for offensive help.

Dunno about Arroyo. Webb, yes. SS help, yes.

LincolnparkRed
08-17-2010, 01:07 PM
I voted for Chapman only cause I think that switch to the bullpen may be permanent ala Billy Wagner

The Voice of IH
08-17-2010, 01:26 PM
Yup here..

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/potential-free-agents-for-2011.html

thank you very much

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2010, 01:28 PM
I wouldn't trade any of them. You can never have enough pitching, and you never know about injuries. There's nothing wrong with having an abundance of young starters.

That's not to say I wouldn't trade one of them for a Troy Tulowitzki or Josh Johnson. I would need a premium SS or starting pitcher in return for one of them.

mdccclxix
08-17-2010, 01:31 PM
I voted Chapman, not because I think he's bullpen bound for good, but because he could just as well use a few months to start the season in AAA as a starter again. Then go from there.

I don't like trading away pitching depth at all. For any of our young, cheap starters I'd want a whole lot, like a cheap power hitter with great defense for LF. Or a Tulowitski type SS in his prime.

When you consider we have 3-5 great hitters in AAA that could fill our needs cheaply, it would have to be a can't miss return for any pitching.

Walt's going to be a popular guy this offseason!

sabometrics
08-17-2010, 01:45 PM
I voted Volquez in the poll because he is the only one of the listed players whom has had elbow surgery. The powers that be might decide to build up his arm strength through proper use from the bullpen over the course of a season.

This. I have a feeling this will work itself out naturally, and Volquez is the most likely one of the bunch to have continued arm problems.

VR
08-17-2010, 01:46 PM
Cliff Lee is the only guy on that list that is worthy of pursuing.

The law of diminishing returns scares the daylights out of me right now with this staff.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 01:52 PM
I wouldn't trade any of them. You can never have enough pitching, and you never know about injuries. There's nothing wrong with having an abundance of young starters.

That's not to say I wouldn't trade one of them for a Troy Tulowitzki or Josh Johnson. I would need a premium SS or starting pitcher in return for one of them.

You absolutely can have too much pitching, especially when you have deficiencies at other positions. The whole "You can never have enough pitching" is a mantra from organizations who have been pitching starved for years. The really mantra should be "You can never have enough talent."

The issue I see with the Reds is you don't need 6 starting pitchers. Especially when you have 5th starters in the minors in Maloney and LeCure. If you trust your organization to replace your pitching depth then there is no reason not to trade from surplus to fulfill a need.

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 01:58 PM
I'd guess Arroyo's a big factor in this. If Arroyo's back, then you might see a deal; if not, I don't see a deal at all. The most important reason you won't see one, IMO, is that Walt will not count unduly on pitchers who really have very little sustained record of success--and, outside of Arroyo, Cueto's the only one of those we're discussing who could be described that way. There are just too many ifs involving the other 5--all five of them. The more of them you keep, the better chance you've got to get a decent rotation of 5 for a team that's got a real chance to contend.

Ghosts of 1990
08-17-2010, 02:10 PM
This was an easy question to answer. I like Bailey's stuff better than any of these guys.

Recency performance is clouding too many judgements here on Wood, Leake and even Cueto. Bailey's stuff is better than all of those guys.

OesterPoster
08-17-2010, 02:11 PM
This. I have a feeling this will work itself out naturally, and Volquez is the most likely one of the bunch to have continued arm problems.

And this is why I voted for Bailey. Volquez already has had TJ, and most pitchers at his age are rejuvenated after the surgery. Bailey, on the other hand, has not had any arm problems until this year...which is just a short time after starting to throw the splitter. I predict that he has further arm issues in the near future, whether it's the elbow or shoulder. I'd rather trade high on him before his arm blows up, IMHO.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 02:11 PM
If you can get 5 good years from 7 viable pitchers you have likely hit above average.

If the Cards had any depth behind their Big 3, they would have run off an hid from us by now, and they would still have Ludwick in the OF.

Good pitching doesn't decrease in value.

Of course it depends on the piece. Trading a guy like leake for a major-leage ready high end SS prospect would be acceptable, but we already have plenty of depth virtually everywhere.

If we trade pitching, it has to be for either a TOR starter like Greinke or Johnson, or for a high end premium prospect at a skill position.

But you won't really have as many options as you think by keeping them. Three of the six (4 of 7 if you exercise Arroyo) are not going to have options available without getting through waivers. That means Leake, Wood and Chapman instantly have to fight over the last position. So no matter how good either of those three are, you really don't have options unless someone gets hurt.

Kind of eliminates the "let the performances decide" idea, doesn't it?

So the reality is, you're letting two of your best pitchers sit in the minors (or in the bullpen) just so you can have a rainy day fund. It's just not worth it. Those are valuable assets that could be turned into productive players at another position.

Kc61
08-17-2010, 02:13 PM
I'd guess Arroyo's a big factor in this. If Arroyo's back, then you might see a deal; if not, I don't see a deal at all. The most important reason you won't see one, IMO, is that Walt will not count unduly on pitchers who really have very little sustained record of success--and, outside of Arroyo, Cueto's the only one of those we're discussing who could be described that way. There are just too many ifs involving the other 5--all five of them. The more of them you keep, the better chance you've got to get a decent rotation of 5 for a team that's got a real chance to contend.

Let's say the Reds have an opportunity to acquire a Hanley Ramirez. Or a Nick Markakis. Or Jose Bautista. Or Delmon Young. Nick Swisher. Or, hypothetically, Jayson Werth (I know, a free agent).

Wouldn't you trade one good starting pitcher plus minor leaguers for a position player of that caliber?

Caveat Emperor
08-17-2010, 02:21 PM
I voted Volquez in the poll because he is the only one of the listed players whom has had elbow surgery. The powers that be might decide to build up his arm strength through proper use from the bullpen over the course of a season.

Ditching the slider is probably a good start for Volquez. His current pitching arsenal: 4 seam, 2 seam, curveball, change up is about as health-friendly as you can have. Volquez's mechanics don't scream "injury" to me, so I'm not really all that concerned about his future health.

I think the easier way to look at this is who NOT to trade:

- Bailey: His value is middling compared to his potential upside, and he's cheap. Stick him in the back of the rotation at #5 and see if he can't start to scratch that potential that everyone has seen since high school.

- Chapman: He's a LHP that throws 103 MPH and is under contract at team-favorable terms well into the next decade. With all due respect to anyone considering him as trade bait, you'd have to be off the meds to even think about moving him this offseason.

- Wood: LHP with plus-command and a low-90s fastball. Unless he gets rocked to finish out the year, his value is only going to get higher.

So, really, that leaves us with Volquez, Leake and Cueto. Of that group, I'd leave out Leake because he's got a longer way to go until arb eligibility, and because I think he'll be better next year with a full season of work under his belt and an offseason without fall ball.

Of Cueto and Volquez, I think Volquez has higher upside potential than Cueto. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Red I'm most OK with the team trading is Johnny Cueto.

I'd look to shop him out west (where his flyball tendencies will play well) and see if I couldn't return home with a SS prospect of some sort.

Tornon
08-17-2010, 02:29 PM
Let's say the Reds have an opportunity to acquire a Hanley Ramirez. Or a Nick Markakis. Or Jose Bautista. Or Delmon Young. Nick Swisher. Or, hypothetically, Jayson Werth (I know, a free agent).

Wouldn't you trade one good starting pitcher plus minor leaguers for a position player of that caliber?

I wouldn't even think about parting with one of these guys for Jose Bautista

MartyFan
08-17-2010, 02:32 PM
I think one if not two of those pitchers will be traded after the season...my guess is Cueto or Volquez will be he top candidates because of the return they can bring.

TRF
08-17-2010, 02:40 PM
Harang's gone. Arroyo is 50/50, IMO.

they won't ditch both of them. JMO.

membengal
08-17-2010, 02:42 PM
Man, CE, I wouldn't want a SS prospect for Cueto or any kind of prospect for Cueto, I guess I'd want close to a developed "sure thing"...

fearofpopvol1
08-17-2010, 02:45 PM
I am going to guess Bailey. Even though I like him, he has proven the least of any of the options over any sort of consistent basis.

One thing I absolutely want the Reds avoiding though, if they are trading 1 of these guys, is selling low just because they don't have room.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 02:46 PM
So the reality is, you're letting two of your best pitchers sit in the minors (or in the bullpen) just so you can have a rainy day fund. It's just not worth it. Those are valuable assets that could be turned into productive players at another position.

When you have a team that has limited resources, they need to maximize the talent they have. I agree that you can't let 2 of your better pitchers sit in the pen or AAA because you fear someone is going to get injured.

6 pitchers for 5 spots when you have other positions of need becomes an issue for me. How much different and dangerous is this Reds team with a + bat playing out in LF?

Caveat Emperor
08-17-2010, 02:47 PM
Man, CE, I wouldn't want a SS prospect for Cueto or any kind of prospect for Cueto, I guess I'd want close to a developed "sure thing"...

Well, obviously I'd want a GOOD prospect. ;)

Cedric
08-17-2010, 02:47 PM
I am going to guess Bailey. Even though I like him, he has proven the least of any of the options over any sort of consistent basis.

One thing I absolutely want the Reds avoiding though, if they are trading 1 of these guys, is selling low just because they don't have room.

I can understand that. That is the main reason I don't deal Homer at his age and how this year has gone.

I deal Cueto and don't look back. His K/9 and LD rate scare the crap out of me. He's also very small.

Package him for a true ace while the going is good.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 02:50 PM
When you have a team that has limited resources, they need to maximize the talent they have. I agree that you can't let 2 of your better pitchers sit in the pen or AAA because you fear someone is going to get injured.

6 pitchers for 5 spots when you have other positions of need becomes an issue for me. How much different and dangerous is this Reds team with a + bat playing out in LF?

That's exactly the mindset I am in. Thank you for saying better than I did.

:cool:

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 02:51 PM
Let's say the Reds have an opportunity to acquire a Hanley Ramirez. Or a Nick Markakis. Or Jose Bautista. Or Delmon Young. Nick Swisher. Or, hypothetically, Jayson Werth (I know, a free agent).

Wouldn't you trade one good starting pitcher plus minor leaguers for a position player of that caliber?

Not to hijack the thread, but, as somebody condemned by geography to watch a lot of Orioles games, I've thought recently about trading Jay Bruce straight up for Nick Markakis. But I don't think you'll get him away from Buck, who really likes NM. I might do one of those trades but I think young pitchers are not really to be relied on; I could see significant regression for Leake, Wood, and even Chapman next year. Volquez has pitched about a 150 innings total outside of his one good year with us, and Bailey's Bailey. I think the idea that there's going to be an overload of pitching is not at all obvious.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 03:10 PM
If I had to rank them in order of likelihood of not being in the rotation:

Chapman: He's not done it yet and has had some success in the pen in the minors. He's going to have to force his way in to the rotation.
Volquez: He's an injury risk and has big efficiency problems thanks to his shaky command. I could see him moved to the pen as Chapman could fill that high ceiling/ high risk mold.
Leake: he had a great start, but let's be honest, his ceiling is pretty low as he is incredibly command dependent
Bailey: He's just terribly inconsistent and has had injury issues. But a pretty high ceiling keeps him in the rotation .
Wood: He's just a solid all around pitcher. Being a lefty helps too.
Cueto: Barring injury or trade, he's a 100% lock and will probably be the opening day starter if both Harang and Arroyo are gone.

(I originally voted Volquez, but would change my vote if I could)

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 03:39 PM
Yeah, well, me too. But if we want a hammer, that's how you trade for one, I think,

Here's the thing though...with how good these kids are NOW at such a young age, who's to say that THEY won't be that hammer? And Greinke...his W/L is pretty disturbing (and yes, I know...it's W/L) but his ERA isn't that great either. I don't get to see him very often, but I wonder if he was a two-year wonder.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 03:41 PM
I voted for Chapman only cause I think that switch to the bullpen may be permanent ala Billy Wagner

I'm leaning this way too. And I was totally against him going to the pen too.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 03:45 PM
Let's say the Reds have an opportunity to acquire a Hanley Ramirez. Or a Nick Markakis. Or Jose Bautista. Or Delmon Young. Nick Swisher. Or, hypothetically, Jayson Werth (I know, a free agent).

Wouldn't you trade one good starting pitcher plus minor leaguers for a position player of that caliber?

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't want ANY of those guys. Of them all, Ramirez is the most talented, but he's also the biggest head case. There are other targets out there.

Caveat Emperor
08-17-2010, 04:13 PM
Wait -- are people just talking about who isn't going to be in the rotation next year, or are people actually suggesting that the Reds try to trade Chapman this offseason (as the thread topic asks -- who would you like the Reds to get rid of?)?

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 04:34 PM
Here's the thing though...with how good these kids are NOW at such a young age, who's to say that THEY won't be that hammer? And Greinke...his W/L is pretty disturbing (and yes, I know...it's W/L) but his ERA isn't that great either. I don't get to see him very often, but I wonder if he was a two-year wonder.

Agree. I don't trade, under any circumstances, the ones with the best chance to be a hammer. For me, that's Chapman and Bailey.

Jpup
08-17-2010, 05:11 PM
Keep them all, you are going to need them. I still think Cueto is the best of the bunch right now. I expect Arroyo to be back and Harang to be gone. We don't know anything about Chapman until he throws a pitch in the big leagues. Bailey is back for 1 start and Volquez still has a long way to go. It's a little early to decide on 2011.

Homer Bailey
08-17-2010, 05:12 PM
It's impossible to answer this poll because there are three different questions.

Who is the odd man out in 2011?

Who is the odd man out past 2011?

Who should the Reds use as trade bait?

I answered Chapman, because I don't think he'll be ready for the rotation next year, and more likely to break in as a reliever.

mth123
08-17-2010, 07:26 PM
I expect the Reds to try and trade Cueto. He's going to get real expensive fast.

My thought as well. I'm guessing Chapman opens 2011 in AAA and the others fill the rotation and we see what happens. If they all succeed, Cueto goes because he'll be makng the most cash to start 2012.

Rating these guys on potential I'd say they line up

Chapman
Bailey
Volquez
Cueto
Wood/Leake Pick 'em, but Wood's reactions to disappointments during a couple no hit bids have impressed the heck out of me. I expect Leake to be an innings eater in the Arroyo mold and that is pretty good. But Arroyo is 6-5 while Leake is relatively small and I have to wonder how many seasons he could go 220 IP in row the way Arroyo has. Wood is similarly small, but he seems a little more solid than I had previously thought and if I had to pick one at this point, I'd take Wood over Leake.

I'm ready to go with 6 starters (which was a plan I was not in favor of) and I still want them to bring back Arroyo or an upgrade for 2011.

nemesis
08-17-2010, 07:41 PM
I am liking Chapman more and more as a reliever. It seems his arm might be a little more effective in that role. Making Chapman the Closer past 2011 might be a great solution for all involved.

2011

Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Bailey
Leake

Bray
Ondrusek
Smith
Arredondo
Chapman
Masset
Cordero

Still leaving Maloney, LeCure, Klinker in AAA... Not to bad.

mth123
08-17-2010, 07:46 PM
I am liking Chapman more and more as a reliever. It seems his arm might be a little more effective in that role. Making Chapman the Closer past 2011 might be a great solution for all involved.

2011

Cueto
Volquez
Wood
Bailey
Leake

Bray
Ondrusek
Smith
Arredondo
Chapman
Masset
Cordero

Still leaving Maloney, LeCure, Klinker in AAA... Not to bad.

I've thought this as well, it just seems like a waste, but in the day of the $48 Million closer, it wouldn't really be the worst use of him.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 08:16 PM
It's impossible to answer this poll because there are three different questions.

Who is the odd man out in 2011?

Who is the odd man out past 2011?

Who should the Reds use as trade bait?

I answered Chapman, because I don't think he'll be ready for the rotation next year, and more likely to break in as a reliever.

I can see how it would have been construed differently. However, what I meant by the title is going forward, if we have to narrow the rotation down to which five will be the 'future' rotation (to the extent we can come to an agreeable definition on future), who would you want to see traded to pave the way for such a rotation?

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2010, 12:57 PM
Jerry Crasnick on the Reds young pitching:


Brandon, Mike Leake is starting to wear down, but this year has to be considered a very positive one for him. And I'm really impressed with what I've seen from Travis Wood. Ultimately, it comes down to Aroldis Chapman and what he might provide. I think the Reds deserve some credit for letting him get experience in the minors. It would have been awfully easy to bow to the hype and carry him on the Opening Day roster. Long term, he's much better served spending time in the minors.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/33944/mlb-with-jerry-crasnick