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View Full Version : Guess the Reds' chances of making playoffs after the West Coast Swing.



texasdave
08-17-2010, 12:46 PM
Here are three sites that try to estimate a team's chances of making the playoffs. Since typically West Coast trips are dreamcrushers, I thought I would post these now after the West
Coast Trip just for fun.

http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html
This is a cool site because you can pick your favorite team and it breaks it out and gives different odds for the different amount of victories. This means if you estimate what the Red's record for the rest of the season it will give the odds of them making the playoffs with that particular record.



METHOD CIN-DV CIN-WC CIN-TOT
COOL 58.4 16.8 75.4
BP 48.3 15.7 64.0
SCS N/A N/A 71.1
AVE 70.2

METHOD STL-DV STL-WC STL-TOT
COOL 41.6 17.8 59.4
BP 51.6 14.5 66.1
SCS N/A N/A 65.2
AVE 63.6

Averaging the three Cincinnati's chances stand at 71.1. Any guesses as to what it will be when they return home?

Vottomatic
08-17-2010, 12:52 PM
My opinion is that they may be hitting the west coast at just the right time.

Seņor Rojo
08-17-2010, 07:16 PM
My opinion is that they may be hitting the west coast at just the right time.

Certainly a better team than in past seasons. I consider this trip relatively benign. If a stop in San Diego was included in this swing instead of Arizona (where the Reds had a nice sweep at the beginning of last season), I would be concerned.

mckbearcat48
08-17-2010, 07:32 PM
As a Card fan, I probably shouldn't say this...but if the Reds go .500 or better on this trip, I'm thinking there will be later October baseball in Cincy.

Hey Meat
08-17-2010, 07:34 PM
I think this team will surprise you. They have done it all year. Not the Reds of the last few years.

Kingspoint
08-17-2010, 10:56 PM
100%

ThornWithin81
08-17-2010, 11:40 PM
Considering that the Cardinals have lost three straight against NL Central teams (not surprised) I think the Reds come back from the coast in good shape provided they don't melt down completely out there.

I went with the second option.

Jr's Boy
08-18-2010, 12:35 AM
We've won just 1 game.Place a poll 4 games in.

MikeThierry
08-18-2010, 12:38 AM
Considering that the Cardinals have lost three straight against NL Central teams (not surprised) I think the Reds come back from the coast in good shape provided they don't melt down completely out there.

I went with the second option.

This has been the most frustrating Cardinals team I have seen in a decade. Another game where the defense lets the pitching down. Another game where 3 unearned runs cross the plate.

ian_madden
08-18-2010, 01:03 AM
This has been the most frustrating Cardinals team I have seen in a decade. Another game where the defense lets the pitching down. Another game where 3 unearned runs cross the plate.

Yeah... Thank you Felipe Lopez. Why do you think he was run out of town on a rail.

George Foster
08-18-2010, 01:38 AM
a 5-4 road trip would be a GREAT road trip. I don't want to face the Giants when they have been losing and coming home. Law of averages. Lets hope they win some games before the Reds come to town. 2 out of 3 win in St. Louis sounds great to me.

texasdave
08-20-2010, 02:24 PM
Arizona Update: After the first three games all numbers trending in the right direction.


SITE B4 WCT DBACKS DODGERS GIANTS
COOL 75.4 85.7
BP 64.0 81.7
SCS 71.1 86.9

AVE 70.2 84.8

rolenmvp
08-20-2010, 03:04 PM
now it's on to LA where we haven't won since 2005. I expect a diffrent outcome this time around. :D

AintlifeGrande
08-20-2010, 04:15 PM
We take the series in Tinseltown I really believe the division is our's to lose.

texasdave
08-23-2010, 11:30 AM
Reds take the series in Los Angeles 2 games to 1 and the Cardinals match them by taking 2 out of 3 against San Francisco. Less games on the schedule left so the percentages eek up a bit. A series win in the Bay Area would cap one sweet West Coast trip.


SITE B4WCT DBACKS DODGERS GIANTS
COOL 75.4 85.7 85.7
BP 64.0 81.7 84.0
SCS 71.1 86.9 89.0

AVE 70.2 84.8 86.2

Quatitos
08-27-2010, 02:41 PM
The reds ended the roadtrip over 80% (counting the day off as well)

Sports Club Stats: 90.6%
Baseball Prospectus: 88.4%
Cool Standings: 82.6%

Average Playoff Chance: 87.2%

So apparently the dream season keeps getting dreamier!

Kingspoint
08-27-2010, 04:21 PM
To anyone who didn't say 100%....

Phooey on you!