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OnBaseMachine
08-17-2010, 04:05 PM
Per the Reds twitter page:

RHP Micah Owings today was designated for assignment to make room on 40-man roster for top pick C Yasmani Grandal, who signed 4-year deal

http://twitter.com/CincinnatiReds

HeatherC1212
08-17-2010, 04:09 PM
Awww, that's not who I wanted to go and I'm probably the only one who feels that way. I hope Micah clears waivers and can stay with the organization somehow. He's a good guy and a decent pitcher when he doesn't waste away on a bench. :(

RedLegSuperStar
08-17-2010, 04:11 PM
Adam Dunn for Grandal?

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 04:15 PM
It's a shame. He had some real value as a long man and PH. But he never really pitched well for us and if you can't trust a pitcher to pitch... Given the depth of pitchers, it makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for a PTBNL or C prospect.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 04:19 PM
It's a shame. He had some real value as a long man and PH. But he never really pitched well for us and if you can't trust a pitcher to pitch... Given the depth of pitchers, it makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for a PTBNL or C prospect.

Don't necessarily get this. I see much more value in Owings than Herrera.

Patrick Bateman
08-17-2010, 04:19 PM
Adam Dunn for Grandal?

Those two moves couldnt be less related.

flyer85
08-17-2010, 04:21 PM
My guess is the if Owings surfaces again with someone it will be due to his bat.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 04:22 PM
It's a shame. He had some real value as a long man and PH. But he never really pitched well for us and if you can't trust a pitcher to pitch... Given the depth of pitchers, it makes sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade for a PTBNL or C prospect.

I don't agree with the part about "never really pitched well." Last year he turned in several solid starts when the Reds were getting very few of them. Back in April he was pitching extremely well to start the year.

He wasn't consistent, but I think he did pitch rather well in stretches.

I do agree that it's a shame it came to this, because of his value in the long relief and pinch hitting roles.

TheNext44
08-17-2010, 04:23 PM
Don't necessarily get this. I see much more value in Owings than Herrera.

Ironically, that might have been one of the reasons that went into the decision.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jocketty went around the league and tested the interest in both players. Maybe it was clear both would be taken, but there was enough interest in Owings to work out a trade. Better to lose Owings in a trade than Herrera for nothing.

Just guessing on this though.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 04:28 PM
Ironically, that might have been one of the reasons that went into the decision.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jocketty went around the league and tested the interest in both players. Maybe it was clear both would be taken, but there was enough interest in Owings to work out a trade. Better to lose Owings in a trade than Herrera for nothing.

Just guessing on this though.

He has some flexibility because of the timing.

He can first pass through revocable waivers to gauge trade interest. If something comes up, he can test the value of a prospective trade. If he passes through, he'll be able to assign him outright to AAA. If not, then he at least knows he has a trading partner. The most likely scenario is that either he'll be kept in the organization or traded for at least something in return.

NDRed
08-17-2010, 04:28 PM
Hate to see Owings go. For whatever reason I really liked him. I think he can be a major league pitcher for someone and he is still realativly young.

Caveat Emperor
08-17-2010, 04:30 PM
Not that it makes much sense to quibble with the back end of the 40 man, but I'd much rather send DRH packing instead of Owings. Owings could at least offer value to the team as a RH PH when rosters expand -- DRH offers absolutely nothing.

Strange move by Walt.

lollipopcurve
08-17-2010, 04:34 PM
One of the logical choices -- and also one of the marginal guys I really liked. I hope he's willing to give it a go as a hitter.

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2010, 04:35 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 04:39 PM
Ironically, that might have been one of the reasons that went into the decision.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jocketty went around the league and tested the interest in both players. Maybe it was clear both would be taken, but there was enough interest in Owings to work out a trade. Better to lose Owings in a trade than Herrera for nothing.

Just guessing on this though.

I'd be very surprised if this surmise is not true.

HokieRed
08-17-2010, 04:40 PM
It's probably a question of lose him now in a deal or in Dec. Rule 5 for 25 grand or whatever it is.

IslandRed
08-17-2010, 04:40 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

Not disputing the relative "meh" of the return, but let's remember the Reds really only traded the 187 plate appearances and eight home runs Dunn had as a Diamondback.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 04:45 PM
Not disputing the relative "meh" of the return, but let's remember the Reds really only traded the 187 plate appearances and eight home runs Dunn had as a Diamondback.

Yea Dunn wasn't coming back and wasn't getting offer arb. I liked Owings as a part of that trade. I am kinda disappointed he didn't work out because I really liked his ability.

nate
08-17-2010, 04:47 PM
Seems like a nice guy and the bat made him "interesting" but the ability to give you several innings of poor pitching isn't something the Reds really have a need for any longer.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 04:48 PM
I don't agree with the part about "never really pitched well." Last year he turned in several solid starts when the Reds were getting very few of them. Back in April he was pitching extremely well to start the year.

He wasn't consistent, but I think he did pitch rather well in stretches.

I do agree that it's a shame it came to this, because of his value in the long relief and pinch hitting roles.

Just about any pitcher in AAA could pitch well in stretches in the majors. It's the ability to do it consistently that differentiates players. We're talking about a 27 year old pitcher with a career ERA/FIP/xFIP north of 5.00 in the NL. His bat certainly helps, but flyball tendencies and a high walk rate for a guy doesn't miss a ton of bats have hurt him a bit in his 2 major league stops thus far.

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to have him around. He certainly brings more value than a Mike Lincoln type. The Reds didn't have a place for him. He wasn't going to be a starter and Dusty didn't use him as a PH when he was being counted on as the long guy. That he still has some value is why I think we'll be able to get something for him via trade. Otherwise, I think he'll take his FA and look for an opportunity to start somewhere.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 04:51 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

Yes he has done all that, but you're forgetting it wasn't a regular trade. We traded him as a 2 month rental basically. It's what we got since the trade, for what he produced in those 2 months with the D-backs.

~edit~ Nevermind. I see that a few people already commented on this on page 2.

traderumor
08-17-2010, 04:53 PM
Owings is not a major league pitcher, reliever or starter. He got plenty of rope to prove that with the Reds. Nice young man, good teammate from all reports, decent bail and wail hitter, but certainly understandable why he becomes a casualty of limited roster space. I would say DRH has more value at the end of the roster--he can be nasty when he decides to get brave again and throw strikes.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 04:53 PM
Just about any pitcher in AAA could pitch well in stretches in the majors. It's the ability to do it consistently that differentiates players. We're talking about a 27 year old pitcher with a career ERA/FIP/xFIP north of 5.00 in the NL. His bat certainly helps, but flyball tendencies and a high walk rate for a guy doesn't miss a ton of bats have hurt him a bit in his 2 major league stops thus far.


But what you describe here was mostly as a starting pitcher (which obviously the Reds don't need him for now), and in that context, he's an above-average 5th starter in the majors. I posted this in a thread last year, but his production among MLB No. 5-starters was above average by nearly half a run.

Just about any pitcher in AAA could pitch well in stretches, but not everyone does. So Micah already was more productive than a lot of teams get out of guys in the role he was in.

edabbs44
08-17-2010, 04:59 PM
Not disputing the relative "meh" of the return, but let's remember the Reds really only traded the 187 plate appearances and eight home runs Dunn had as a Diamondback.
And, since it is on the forefront of many evaluations nowadays, according to UZR Dunn was basically the equivalent of Gomes on crutches in the OF in 2008 and especially 2009.

OnBaseMachine
08-17-2010, 05:04 PM
Yes he has done all that, but you're forgetting it wasn't a regular trade. We traded him as a 2 month rental basically. It's what we got since the trade, for what he produced in those 2 months with the D-backs.

~edit~ Nevermind. I see that a few people already commented on this on page 2.

The Reds also had the option of keeping him the remainder of the 2008 season and receiving draft picks if he left via free agency.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 05:04 PM
But what you describe here was mostly as a starting pitcher (which obviously the Reds don't need him for now), and in that context, he's an above-average 5th starter in the majors. I posted this in a thread last year, but his production among MLB No. 5-starters was above average by nearly half a run.

Just about any pitcher in AAA could pitch well in stretches, but not everyone does. So Micah already was more productive than a lot of teams get out of guys in the role he was in.

I think you're missing my point. I agree with you that, as a proven 5ish ERA guy, he's an above average #5 starter. Throw in his bat and you've got some real value. But on the flip side of that, #5 starter with a bonus bat is his ceiling.

To that point, he doesn't have that value for the Reds because he's not going to get the opportunity to start given our depth of higher ceiling options and when he's been used as a reliever, he's not given the opportunity to hit. So we're talking about a guy who's best possible contribution to the Cincinnati Reds moving foward would be as a below average reliever. He has some value, but not to us.

CTA513
08-17-2010, 05:08 PM
And, since it is on the forefront of many evaluations nowadays, according to UZR Dunn was basically the equivalent of Gomes on crutches in the OF in 2008 and especially 2009.

Gomes has been playing like hes on crutches lately.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 05:09 PM
I think you're missing my point. I agree with you that, as a proven 5ish ERA guy, he's an above average #5 starter. Throw in his bat and you've got some real value. But on the flip side of that, #5 starter with a bonus bat is his ceiling.

To that point, he doesn't have that value for the Reds because he's not going to get the opportunity to start given our depth of higher ceiling options and when he's been used as a reliever, he's not given the opportunity to hit. So we're talking about a guy who's best possible contribution to the Cincinnati Reds moving foward would be as a below average reliever. He has some value, but not to us.

I agree with all this. I was merely responding to the previous comment that he hasn't been productive for the Reds. In the role he was in previously, he did pitch well--but as you said the Reds now have higher ceiling options.

I still disagree with being a below average reliever (at least in the long relief context), and I think you even said in your first post you find value in that too so perhaps I'm misreading you this time around, but yeah as a high-leverage, middle or late reliever, he's below average.

Caveat Emperor
08-17-2010, 05:10 PM
Owings is not a major league pitcher, reliever or starter. He got plenty of rope to prove that with the Reds. Nice young man, good teammate from all reports, decent bail and wail hitter, but certainly understandable why he becomes a casualty of limited roster space. I would say DRH has more value at the end of the roster--he can be nasty when he decides to get brave again and throw strikes.

Given the current makeup of the Reds bullpen, I foresee no situation (absent a total meltdown and collapse that leaves them out of contention) where DRH would ever take the baseball for the Reds again in 2010.

Given the current makeup of the Reds bench, I absolutely see situations where Owings' bat could help the team when rosters expand.

That's, ultimately, why I have a problem with this decision. They're clearing 40 man space by jettisoning a guy that might contribtue (even if it's just for 5-10 PH shots in September) to retain a guy that isn't going to contribute this year and is a longshot to contribute in the future.

GAC
08-17-2010, 05:13 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

IMO, the main objective of that trade as to basically dump Dunn.

TRF
08-17-2010, 05:13 PM
And, since it is on the forefront of many evaluations nowadays, according to UZR Dunn was basically the equivalent of Gomes on crutches in the OF in 2008 and especially 2009.

ugh. So two teams had him playing out of position. big deal. Gomes, offensively, couldn't carry Dunn's jock in a wheelbarrow.

back to the topic at hand, I think he's likely traded (Owings) I sure don't want to see DRH facing Bruce in the post season.

Prior to being sent down, Micah had discoverd how to strike guys out. 35 K's in 33 ip. his problem was too many walks. waaaaay too many walks. they haunt ya know. :)

I won't be surprised to see him in a major league uniform very soon.

edabbs44
08-17-2010, 05:19 PM
IMO, the main objective of that trade as to basically dump Dunn.

It was one piece of an overhaul of the roster. The results so far work for me.

lollipopcurve
08-17-2010, 05:25 PM
It was one piece of an overhaul of the roster. The results so far work for me.

Yep. Different, cheaper bats in the middle of the order, shepherded by different veterans. Lots of years of losing can jade just about anybody, and it was time to get a new vibe going before this wave of young talent got too synched up with the rhythms of disaffection.

Strikes Out Looking
08-17-2010, 05:26 PM
I liked Owings, but I think the problem is he had no where to go on the Reds in the future. He really isn't a reliever and he is probably not in the top 10 in the starting depth chart (which is a big change from when he came in late 2008 when he was a viable option for the no. 5 starter). Hopefully he isn't signed by St. Louis and becomes their everyday LF.

As to the deal for Dunn, he wasn't coming back at the price he wanted. The Reds took three prospects all of which could have panned out or done nothing -- Castilla was the number 3 catcher last year but he got a separated shoulder and hasn't been the same since. And if I look at the standings correctly, I don't think the Reds have done too shabby since the Dunn deal.

NJReds
08-17-2010, 05:32 PM
So the Reds got a better return for Jr. (Masset) than Dunn.

VR
08-17-2010, 05:33 PM
Micah was very high on the likability chart. His dinger off Franklin was an all-time Reds highlight for me.

That said, he just didn't show enough to stick in a stable full of potential.

bucksfan2
08-17-2010, 05:33 PM
The Reds also had the option of keeping him the remainder of the 2008 season and receiving draft picks if he left via free agency.

Dunn was making $15M in 2008 and ended up making $10M in 2009-10. The Dbacks didn't offer him arb and I doubt the Reds would have. If you look back at the trade the Reds didn't do so bad. At the time of the trade I didn't have a problem with it (I was a fan of Owings at the time) and now I don't have an issue with it. Even if the Reds were to offer him arb I want no piece of Dunn at $17M/year and consider that he wouldn't be playing LF, rather 1b.

MattyHo4Life
08-17-2010, 05:36 PM
Hopefully he isn't signed by St. Louis and becomes their everyday LF.

Matt Holliday would agree with you on that one.

Heath
08-17-2010, 05:50 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

And the Diamondbacks made out worse. They got nothing in the Adam Dunn deal.

westofyou
08-17-2010, 05:55 PM
To state the obvious, the Reds are too good to carry Micha and he's not a good enough hitter or pitcher to merit anything else.

As far as Dunn goes the Reds lost that trade the day they made it, it was culture change, a body exchange and they waited to long on Dunn to make any move of him a winnable deal once they did move him.

Spilt milk moment... dry those eyes.

kaldaniels
08-17-2010, 05:58 PM
To state the obvious, the Adam Dunn trade didn't work out too well for the Reds. Dunn has hit 77 homers and posted an OPS up around .915 since the trade (1,341 plate appearances) while Micah Owings has been DFA'd, Wilkin Castillo has struggled to hit in Triple-A, and Dallas Buck has pitched a total of 92.1 innings in the Reds organization while complining an ERA over 5.

To state the obvious the Dunn trade was not a true player for player trade. Anyone expecting more than scraps for Dunn was smoking something good. I wish the guys we got worked out better, but oh well.

flyer85
08-17-2010, 06:03 PM
The Dbacks didn't offer him arb and I doubt the Reds would have.

it was avoiding a PR pain. They trade Dunn for garbage, however, that doesn't become apparent for a couple of years and everyone has since moved on. The other choice was to keep Dunn, not offer arb and get nothing. That would likely have generated some bad PR.

Reminds of the deal a few years back when the Rockies and Red Sox swapped Reese and Hatteberg. IIRC, within a few days the Red Sox had released Pokey and the Rocks released Hatty.

It was a lot easier for Arizona to walk away from Dunn as they only had for ~2 months.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 06:05 PM
I agree with all this. I was merely responding to the previous comment that he hasn't been productive for the Reds. In the role he was in previously, he did pitch well--but as you said the Reds now have higher ceiling options.

I still disagree with being a below average reliever (at least in the long relief context), and I think you even said in your first post you find value in that too so perhaps I'm misreading you this time around, but yeah as a high-leverage, middle or late reliever, he's below average.

There's room for value between average and replacement level. That's where Owings supposedly lives. As a Red, he's posted a WAR of -0.3 and 0.0 -- so I stand by my original statement. I'm not sure which role you think he pitched well in. As a starter, he had a 5.74 ERA. As a reliever, he had a 4.56 ERA, but with an unsustainably low BABIP. In my book there's a pretty big gap between "could have been worse" and "pretty well" and he's squarely in the former group.

To put it another way, if he were pitching for some other team, nobody here would likely have interest in trading for him.

Orenda
08-17-2010, 06:24 PM
I'm a little surprised Enerio Del Rosario is still around.

Brutus
08-17-2010, 06:49 PM
There's room for value between average and replacement level. That's where Owings supposedly lives. As a Red, he's posted a WAR of -0.3 and 0.0 -- so I stand by my original statement. I'm not sure which role you think he pitched well in. As a starter, he had a 5.74 ERA. As a reliever, he had a 4.56 ERA, but with an unsustainably low BABIP. In my book there's a pretty big gap between "could have been worse" and "pretty well" and he's squarely in the former group.

To put it another way, if he were pitching for some other team, nobody here would likely have interest in trading for him.

Prologue: as a great admire of sabermetrics, WAR specifically, I do not intend to ridicule WAR with this next statement.

WAR is like a good parable. It tells a terrific story with lessons that should be learned by all. The intent and meaning behind it provides important context to the story.

But like any parable, sometimes people need real world context for the moral lessons to have any meaning. The stats said that, on the whole, Micah Owings was a nick at, below, above or around replacement.

But here's the real world context: taken from the statistical algorithm that estimates the player based on replacement level, and put into his role as a 5th starter, he was above 75% of the 5th starters in Major Leage baseball last year (even according to FIP). That means the theoretical 'replacement' level was not getting replacement-level production from the other freely available talent pitching in the same spot for the Reds' real-life competitors.

The problem that comes into play sometimes with Replacement level (especially for pitchers) is that it's set based on, as you know, a notch below average. The problem is that average is set of all performances lumped together, meaning it includes the very best and the very worst, and assumes that the 80 percent of average is what a replacement level pitcher would perform. The truth is that a ton of 5th starters really aren't pitching at that level, but worse.

Why do I say Micah Owings was doing a decent job? Because at the time, he was providing a lot more production than most of his peers were providing in his role. His WAR may have suggested he was not even quite replacement, but the truth is replacement isn't usually even that reliable.

Again, I'm not knocking replacement level, but through 4 months last year, while his WAR suggested he was replacement... the fact of the matter is that he was performing better than 75% of 5th starters (according to their FIP, not ERA). So while replacement level is a solid way of comparing Owings on the large scale, it wouldn't have been an effective scale to use for the Reds to go out and find freely available talent, and expect they would even perform as good as Owings was performing.

Thankfully, the organization has tremendous depth right now and were able to find upgrades. And make no mistake about the fact that the Reds should always look to upgrade when possible (which is why I was not content with Owings simply because he was out-performing his peers). But he was doing something that a lot of teams even wish they had out of their last starter in the rotation. To me, that's something that WAR doesn't always capture because it operates in theory.

_Sir_Charles_
08-17-2010, 06:55 PM
The Reds also had the option of keeping him the remainder of the 2008 season and receiving draft picks if he left via free agency.

True. Apparently they thought that Micah Owings & (Castillo?) were better options. We'll never know because we don't know what picks we would've gotten (players...not the pick numbers).

Boss-Hog
08-17-2010, 07:13 PM
I think it was pretty clear that the reason the Reds didn't keep Dunn through 2008 and offer him arbitration is because, right or wrong, they had no intention of paying him what he would have gotten in arbitration if he accepted it. I'm not even sure they were budgeted for a scenario in which he accepted arbitration and they'd have had to pay him whatever value he'd received. So, as far as I'm concerned, at least, offering him arbitration and being assured that he'd decline it so we'd get the picks was hardly a sure thing.

jojo
08-17-2010, 07:21 PM
I think it was pretty clear that the reason the Reds didn't keep Dunn through 2008 and offer him arbitration is because, right or wrong, they had no intention of paying him what he would have gotten in arbitration if he accepted it. I'm not even sure they were budgeted for a scenario in which he accepted arbitration and they'd have had to pay him whatever value he'd received. So, as far as I'm concerned, at least, offering him arbitration and being assured that he'd decline it so we'd get the picks was hardly a sure thing.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario especially since Arizona also decided it was too risky to offer him arb and he ended up signing a contract that was much less than many would've predicted at the beginning of his contract year. In essence the winds of the economy were blowing and the calculus for many FO's was rapidly changing.

edabbs44
08-17-2010, 07:27 PM
I think it was pretty clear that the reason the Reds didn't keep Dunn through 2008 and offer him arbitration is because, right or wrong, they had no intention of paying him what he would have gotten in arbitration if he accepted it. I'm not even sure they were budgeted for a scenario in which he accepted arbitration and they'd have had to pay him whatever value he'd received. So, as far as I'm concerned, at least, offering him arbitration and being assured that he'd decline it so we'd get the picks was hardly a sure thing.

To add, the financial world collapsed between the time of the trade and arbitration season so what may have seemed like a slam dunk of him rejecting an arb offer in August became anything but by December. He most likely would have accepted which could have damaged Cincy in the near term. That could have been Chapman's money for all we know.

RedsManRick
08-17-2010, 07:37 PM
I understand your point, Brutus. But are you suggesting that the Reds simply didn't have other guys last year who could have put up an ERA in the low 5s? Justin Lehr did just that. Matt Maloney did better than that, as did Kip Wells.

If we use a generic "freely available talent" standard, then Owings was basically replacement level. That other teams failed to use a 5th starter who met that threshold is a strike against them, not a gold star for us. I'm not sure where your data is from, but (per Fangraphs) 85 pitchers had at least 70 IP as a starter in the NL last year, slightly more than 5 per team. Of those 85, Owings' 5.74 ERA was 81st and his 5.85 FIP was 84th. In other words, for guys that were good enough to be in a rotation for a few months, Owings was among the very worst. This year, among relievers with at least 30 IP, he's 77th of 88 in ERA and 70th in FIP. If there's such a thing as just above replacement level in the generic sense, he's it.

If we use a "guys the Reds had available" standard, the Reds did not want for capable 5th starters. Of the guys who the Reds used in the #5 spot, Owings, Lehr, Wells, and Maloney, Owings had the worst ERA and the 2nd worst FIP.

If that's not real world context, I'm not sure what is.

SMcGavin
08-17-2010, 07:45 PM
Owings as a Red: 153 IP, 5.35 ERA, FIP and xFIP well north of 5
Herrera as a Red: 92 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.13 xFIP

How is this even a comparison? (unless you think Micah is a future every day LF or something like that)

Brutus
08-17-2010, 09:12 PM
I understand your point, Brutus. But are you suggesting that the Reds simply didn't have other guys last year who could have put up an ERA in the low 5s? Justin Lehr did just that. Matt Maloney did better than that, as did Kip Wells.

If we use a generic "freely available talent" standard, then Owings was basically replacement level. That other teams failed to use a 5th starter who met that threshold is a strike against them, not a gold star for us. I'm not sure where your data is from, but (per Fangraphs) 85 pitchers had at least 70 IP as a starter in the NL last year, slightly more than 5 per team. Of those 85, Owings' 5.74 ERA was 81st and his 5.85 FIP was 84th. In other words, for guys that were good enough to be in a rotation for a few months, Owings was among the very worst. This year, among relievers with at least 30 IP, he's 77th of 88 in ERA and 70th in FIP. If there's such a thing as just above replacement level in the generic sense, he's it.

If we use a "guys the Reds had available" standard, the Reds did not want for capable 5th starters. Of the guys who the Reds used in the #5 spot, Owings, Lehr, Wells, and Maloney, Owings had the worst ERA and the 2nd worst FIP.

If that's not real world context, I'm not sure what is.

My data was dated (ha ha). It was as of around Aug. 1 last year. So admittedly it may have changed after Owings changed roles. His FIP (which I had used) didn't fare too well the last few months, as he had more walks than strikeouts in August, September and an appearance in October combined.

But as of the time I measured it, Owings was out-performing roughly 3 of every 4 5th starter in baseball.

What I'm saying is that in theory a replacement level starter would be expected to come in and produce a 5-5.50 FIP at any given time, but in practice, it often doesn't happen that way. I am not really taking issue with the methodology of replacement, or even suggesting that Owings deserved (read: had the talent) to stay a productive 5th starter. I'm simply saying I think, for what he was in the timeframe he was in, he filled in admirably and even more stable than a lot of 'replacement' starters often do.

Hope that makes sense.

RED VAN HOT
08-17-2010, 10:50 PM
Owings is arbitration eligible in 2011. Neither Herrera nor Del Rosario is. To avoid arbitration, as the Reds are inclined to do (year + option year is a favorite), they would need to deal with Boras. There are other 12th man candidates that have options and are not arbitration eligible. The move does make sense from that perspective.

Regardless, Owings and Grandal will forever be linked in RZ. Dunn is probably in there somewhere too, but he seems to be linked to everything in RZ.

GADawg
08-17-2010, 11:35 PM
One of the logical choices -- and also one of the marginal guys I really liked. I hope he's willing to give it a go as a hitter.

first of all I'm a big Micah Owings fan but probably more as a person than as a pitcher. As much as I like Micah I'll never buy into the notion that he could be any sort of difference maker with the bat. Admittedly he's a very good hitting pitcher but imo if he were to have a significant number of steady Ab's against big leaguers they would figure him out in no time. That BIG step into the bucket on every swing just wouldn't fly on a regular basis IMO.

WVRedsFan
08-18-2010, 01:49 AM
For so long this team has invested in fodder--players who were less than replacement level and lately with Jocketty in charge, we haven't been doing that. The Reds were so desparate to get rid of the potential Adam Dunn arbirtration that they were willing to give him away. That didn't work out so well. I never considered Micha Owens more than one of those players who would never work out. he pitched poorly and wasn't used much, mainly because he wasn't so good. I don't really think either him or Herrera should be on this club, and that will happen sooner than later.

Walt said tonight they are willing to work with him, but I don't see a future for Owings. He's just another player who wasn't ready for prime time. I trust Jocketty. All the right moves have been made so far, regardless of the crying from the peanut gallery.

Ron Madden
08-18-2010, 04:56 AM
And, since it is on the forefront of many evaluations nowadays, according to UZR Dunn was basically the equivalent of Gomes on crutches in the OF in 2008 and especially 2009.

Give it a rest. Your hatred of Dunn is well documented.

I was one of the few here that lobbied for the Reds to resign Gomes but the truth is Dunn is the more productive player of the two and you know it.

Ron Madden
08-18-2010, 05:17 AM
I think it was pretty clear that the reason the Reds didn't keep Dunn through 2008 and offer him arbitration is because, right or wrong, they had no intention of paying him what he would have gotten in arbitration if he accepted it. I'm not even sure they were budgeted for a scenario in which he accepted arbitration and they'd have had to pay him whatever value he'd received. So, as far as I'm concerned, at least, offering him arbitration and being assured that he'd decline it so we'd get the picks was hardly a sure thing.

That's pretty much the way I see it as well but I can't help but think we should have got someone with at least a little value in return.

edabbs44
08-18-2010, 08:08 AM
Give it a rest. Your hatred of Dunn is well documented.

I was one of the few here that lobbied for the Reds to resign Gomes but the truth is Dunn is the more productive player of the two and you know it.

1) I never hated Adam Dunn, so I doubt it could have been documented, let alone well documented.

2) he is absolutely more productive than Jonny Gomes from an offensive perspective. 100%.

3) I just find it odd that, with the latest push of defensive metrics, his offensive numbers are brought up without regard to his defense. His uzr last year was twice as bad as Gomes this year. So while some are still longing for the days of Adam, don't forget he wasn't moving to first base. Or, if he had, who knows how Votto's bat would have responded.

bucksfan2
08-18-2010, 10:05 AM
That's pretty much the way I see it as well but I can't help but think we should have got someone with at least a little value in return.

A year and a half later and the Reds are currently in first place by 2 games. I think that is called value. And to think some people are still wringing their heads about Dunn being traded to the DBacks.

kaldaniels
08-18-2010, 11:36 AM
I don't see how anyone being intellectually honest can continue to lump Owings and Dunn together as if the results of that deal show an ineptitude of the front office.

The decision was made to part ways with Dunn...you want to debate that, fine. (And frankly it has its merits) But please stop acting as if we could have gotten a much better return for him, and as pointed out earlier...offering arb would have been risky.

jojo
08-18-2010, 12:25 PM
I don't see how anyone being intellectually honest can continue to lump Owings and Dunn together as if the results of that deal show an ineptitude of the front office.

The decision was made to part ways with Dunn...you want to debate that, fine. (And frankly it has its merits) But please stop acting as if we could have gotten a much better return for him, and as pointed out earlier...offering arb would have been risky.

It mostly just points to how little trade value Dunn had at the time.

sonny
08-18-2010, 12:41 PM
Always comes back to Dunn. Can we just drop it?

Brutus
08-18-2010, 02:28 PM
That's pretty much the way I see it as well but I can't help but think we should have got someone with at least a little value in return.

Why would you expect to get anything back for someone that was a 35-day rental?

Especially, someone that reportedly had little or no trade interest in July to begin with.

Ron Madden
08-18-2010, 02:37 PM
I hope Jim Edmonds is just a rental but we gave up Dickerson a player with some upside to get him.

Brutus
08-18-2010, 02:42 PM
I hope Jim Edmonds is just a rental but we gave up Dickerson a player with some upside to get him.

Some would argue the Reds gave up an injury-prone, 6th outfielder that will be 29 shortly after Opening Day 2011 and likely had no future in this organization.

I think what the Reds got in a waiver wire deal was about right. Anyone on the 40-man roster with value would've needed to pass through waivers in that Dunn deal. So combine that with the fact it was August 24, and the Reds got market value for that type of rental.

OesterPoster
08-18-2010, 02:49 PM
I hope Jim Edmonds is just a rental but we gave up Dickerson a player with some upside to get him.

Hehe. Just noticed that this posting by you was #4192. :D

_Sir_Charles_
08-18-2010, 02:54 PM
Hehe. Just noticed that this posting by you was #4192. :D

Is that number supposed to hold some sort of special meaning for a Reds fan? ;)

RedLegSuperStar
08-18-2010, 08:05 PM
i wonder if the Reds offered Owings for Guillen prior to getting Edmonds...

edabbs44
08-18-2010, 08:55 PM
i wonder if the Reds offered Owings for Guillen prior to getting Edmonds...

I don't think so...I can't see Walt bringing in a guy like Guillen at this juncture.

TheNext44
08-21-2010, 03:09 PM
Just curiously, did Owings clear waivers? When the Reds DFA'd Sutton and he was claimed, we knew within a few days.

I know he asked to traded if he cleared waivers, but I am wondering if the Reds have second thoughts based on the way the Harang is getting lit up on rehab.

Brutus
08-21-2010, 03:21 PM
Just curiously, did Owings clear waivers? When the Reds DFA'd Sutton and he was claimed, we knew within a few days.

I know he asked to traded if he cleared waivers, but I am wondering if the Reds have second thoughts based on the way the Harang is getting lit up on rehab.

They may not have put him on waivers yet. When you designate a player, since you have 10 days, the Reds don't have to do anything with him for 6 days--if they want to assign him outright to the minors. If they've decided against that, they don't have to expose him to release waivers until the 8th day. Either way, it's possible waivers haven't been completed on him yet.

TheNext44
08-21-2010, 03:23 PM
They may not have put him on waivers yet. When you designate a player, since you have 10 days, the Reds don't have to do anything with him for 6 days--if they want to assign him outright to the minors. If they've decided against that, they don't have to expose him to release waivers until the 8th day. Either way, it's possible waivers haven't been completed on him yet.

Thanks! Probably trying to trade him then.

REDREAD
08-21-2010, 05:31 PM
The Reds also had the option of keeping him the remainder of the 2008 season and receiving draft picks if he left via free agency.

They were never going to risk offering Dunn arbitration. That wouldn't have been wise at all. Dunn would've made a lot more in arb than the free market, with those gaudy HR, runs scored, and RBI numbers.. and OBP

He had the numbers to crush the Reds in arb.

LoganBuck
08-21-2010, 05:34 PM
Thanks! Probably trying to trade him then.

Walt was interviewed during one of the TV broadcasts early in the week, and he said that Micah requested to be traded when he was sent to the minors. Walt indicated that Micah realized where he stood in relation to the starting pitching depth chart. Micah wants to be a starting pitcher, and that is why he was moved back to the rotation at Louisville, to showcase him. Walt indicated that he was trying to accommodate Owings.

REDREAD
08-21-2010, 05:38 PM
it was avoiding a PR pain. They trade Dunn for garbage, however, that doesn't become apparent for a couple of years and everyone has since moved on. The other choice was to keep Dunn, not offer arb and get nothing. That would likely have generated some bad PR.
.

Well, in defense of the Reds, didn't they use the money they saved on Dunn's contract to sign a few more "reach" draft picks that year. That's probably close to equivalent to getting comp picks without the risk of arbitration.

I really think Dunn wanted out of Cincy bad. He made a comment about how he was thankful for Grande and Welsh on TV because his mom couldn't stand to listen to the Reds on the radio..

Dunn also probably thought he was going to get a massive multiyear deal as a FA.

But yea, both Dunn and the Reds probably wanted to avoid the soap opra in the offseason. Trading Dunn helped set everyone's expecations.

Ron Madden
08-21-2010, 05:49 PM
Well, in defense of the Reds, didn't they use the money they saved on Dunn's contract to sign a few more "reach" draft picks that year. That's probably close to equivalent to getting comp picks without the risk of arbitration.

I really think Dunn wanted out of Cincy bad. He made a comment about how he was thankful for Grande and Welsh on TV because his mom couldn't stand to listen to the Reds on the radio..
Dunn also probably thought he was going to get a massive multiyear deal as a FA.

But yea, both Dunn and the Reds probably wanted to avoid the soap opra in the offseason. Trading Dunn helped set everyone's expecations.


I have moved on and will root for Adam wherever he goes.

I don't think Adam wanted out of Cincy bad and I can't blame his Mother for not wanting to hear Marty hammer on Adam every night.

MattyHo4Life
08-21-2010, 08:06 PM
I have moved on and will root for Adam wherever he goes.

What if he went to St. Louis?

reds1869
08-21-2010, 08:19 PM
What if he went to St. Louis?

We'd all be thankful for his defense. :)

Ron Madden
08-21-2010, 08:53 PM
What if he went to St. Louis?

I'd wish him well except when they play the Reds. ;)

Ron Madden
08-22-2010, 05:35 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Micah Owings ends up back in Arizona.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 06:27 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Micah Owings ends up back in Arizona.

They certainly need the arms, wouldn't surprise me either.

Joseph
08-22-2010, 07:18 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Micah Owings ends up back in Arizona.

There are a lot of teams who could use an Owings type player. Not a lot of winning ones, but a lot of building ones. Arizona, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle....the beat goes on and on. He'll find a major league job.

RedLegSuperStar
08-22-2010, 10:04 PM
Owings bat in the Windy City? Oh nooooooo

RedLegSuperStar
08-22-2010, 10:06 PM
This is a thought.. Owings for Brad Hawpe

oregonred
08-22-2010, 10:49 PM
There are a lot of teams who could use an Owings type player. Not a lot of winning ones, but a lot of building ones. Arizona, Chicago, Houston, Pittsburgh, Washington, Los Angeles, Seattle....the beat goes on and on. He'll find a major league job.

Easily will find a spot on half the teams in the league, the Reds should be able to quickly work out a trade with someone.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2010, 06:17 PM
RHP Micah Owings has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Class AAA Louisville. #Reds

http://twitter.com/MissEnquirer

reds1869
08-26-2010, 06:18 PM
RHP Micah Owings has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Class AAA Louisville. #Reds

http://twitter.com/MissEnquirer

I'm glad Micah is still on the Reds payroll. He is certainly a useful player to have around in the event of an emergency.

RedLegSuperStar
08-26-2010, 06:25 PM
I love this.. Hated the thought of losing him

Gallen5862
08-26-2010, 06:29 PM
I am glad Micah Owings has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Class AAA Louisville. This means he is still in the organization and possibly could be playoff eligible. This would require the Reds putting him back on the 40 man roster and using one of the Dl exemptions on him.

Mario-Rijo
08-26-2010, 07:42 PM
I am glad Micah Owings has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Class AAA Louisville. This means he is still in the organization and possibly could be playoff eligible. This would require the Reds putting him back on the 40 man roster and using one of the Dl exemptions on him.

With the way these youngsters are hitting the wall I could see that happening. When he's on he can help us and he could have a offensive pivotal PA or 2 as well, ya never know where help is gonna come from, Bill Bates anyone?

mth123
08-26-2010, 07:50 PM
The Reds played this right. They DFAd him in time that other teams couldn't pick him up and put him in the majors right away. Had they waited a few days, the rosters would have expanded and some team would have probably claimed him. With all the DL guys who are candidates for the 60 day, the Reds could add him back if they wanted too.

Tornon
08-26-2010, 08:03 PM
The Reds played this right. They DFAd him in time that other teams couldn't pick him up and put him in the majors right away. Had they waited a few days, the rosters would have expanded and some team would have probably claimed him. With all the DL guys who are candidates for the 60 day, the Reds could add him back if they wanted too.

The date doesn't matter does it? Someone could have picked him up and optioned him to the minors, he would just have to be on the 40 man roster

Danny Serafini
08-26-2010, 08:19 PM
Does he even have any options left?

Tornon
08-26-2010, 08:22 PM
Does he even have any options left?

He has to, wasn't that how we got him to the minor leagues in the first place?

Gallen5862
08-26-2010, 08:27 PM
Here is a question on Owings options. He was optioned to AAA then DFAed. He cleared waivers and now assigned to AAA. Was Owings on his option assignment for less than 20 days? He is now on assignment instead of on an option. Would this save this option year?

Danny Serafini
08-26-2010, 08:28 PM
He has to, wasn't that how we got him to the minor leagues in the first place?

Edit: Went back and double checked, they did in fact option him and then later DFAed him.

Tornon
08-26-2010, 08:29 PM
No, they designated him for assignment and pulled him off the 40 man roster.

I'm pretty sure he was already in the minors when we designated him.

Danny Serafini
08-26-2010, 08:30 PM
I'm pretty sure he was already in the minors when we designated him.

Bah, you got your response in before I could finish editing my post! :D You're right though, I double checked and he was optioned first.

Gallen5862
08-26-2010, 08:33 PM
Does anyone know if his option year was saved since he was optioned then DFAed then cleared waivers and then assigned to AAA? Was this under the 20 Days limit to save an option year? Does the assignment count different then the option?

Danny Serafini
08-26-2010, 08:35 PM
He was optioned on 7/21 and DFAed on 8/17, so more than 20 days had passed.

Gallen5862
08-26-2010, 08:38 PM
Thanks for the answer Danny Serafini.

Joseph
08-26-2010, 09:44 PM
I'm surprised a deal wasn't worked out with someone.

camisadelgolf
08-26-2010, 10:33 PM
I'm surprised a deal wasn't worked out with someone.
I feel the same way. In the past, there has been no shortage of teams that could at least use someone to eat innings, and very few of the options out there have near the ceiling that Owings does. For comparison, Victor Santos had similar numbers in 2007, and the Orioles actually paid the Reds to obtain him.

kaldaniels
08-26-2010, 11:42 PM
I feel the same way. In the past, there has been no shortage of teams that could at least use someone to eat innings, and very few of the options out there have near the ceiling that Owings does. For comparison, Victor Santos had similar numbers in 2007, and the Orioles actually paid the Reds to obtain him.

I never cease to be amazed how quickly I forget about some of these guys.

HeatherC1212
08-27-2010, 12:20 AM
Count me as another who is happy Micah is still with the organization. He's not going to blow anyone away with his pitching but he's still a pretty solid pitcher for the most part and might be able to help the Reds out in September or in the post season. :thumbup:

WVRedsFan
08-27-2010, 01:56 AM
I'm surprised a deal wasn't worked out with someone.I'm not. As much as I liked him, he hasn't shown anything while being in the majors. Kind of like a right handed Josh Fogg. Likeable, but not someone you want in your bullpen. He can hit, but pitch? Not so much. We value our players much more highly than others do. I wish the best for him, but I imagine he'll either rot in the minors or go to the Cardinals and Dave Duncan will turn him into Superman.