View Full Version : The Turnaround.

08-18-2010, 02:45 PM
As the 2010 season began most fans felt cautiously optimistic. A winning record was possible, even probable in the eyes of many. And if the club caught a break or two it might just be, dare I say, playoff contenders.

The club started slowly limping out to a 7-11 record. The team was not feeling lucky. Shortly thereafter Dusty Baker made a lineup switched that kicked the offense into overdrive. Happy days were here again as the club scored early and often and ran their record out to 30-22 by the end of May.

And then came June.

The club seemed to have hit the same wall that Reds' clubs have run into in the past. In their first 18 games in June their record was 7-11 (sounds familiar) and once again the club was feeling anything but lucky.
Their overall record had fallen to 37-33. They had fallen back into second place and still had half a West Coast trip (winless to this point) to endure.

Morning dawned on June 21st - the first day of summer - and the sun has been shining on this club ever since. Oh, there have been a couple of dark clouds, the 4-game sweep suffered in Philadelphia and the 3-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals at home. But, by and large, this team has been soaking up the sun. A 31-18 record since The Turnaround began will testify to that fact. Cherrypick those two series off that record and they are a ridiculous 31-11.

I am just going to post the numbers and let others analyze if they wish.

First up is the starting pitching:

T-ERA 4.44 3.28 -1.16
T-I/S 6.11 6.10 -0.01

H-ERA 4.41 4.61 0.20
H-I/S 6.23 5.59 -0.64

R-ERA 4.47 2.35 -2.12
R-I/S 5.97 6.52 0.55

Until 6/20 the starting pitching was very consistent. Home ERA for starters was just a tick better than the Road ERA, and they were going deeper into games.
After The Turnaround, the starting pitching at home has actually gotten worse. The ERA is up a bit and the starters have recorded about two fewer outs per start. Starting pitchers on the road have move to a different level completely. Road ERA has been cut almost in half and the starters are going about half an inning deeper per start. Overall, Reds' starters are near the top of the league since summer began in earnest.

Next up is the bullpen:

BPEN 4.73 2.56 -2.17

No surprise here. The Reds' bullpen has made a huge comeback from one of the worst in the league to one of the best. I couldn't find a simple way to break out home from road bullpen numbers.

The offense:

ST-6/20 ST-St DIFF
T-OBP 0.341 0.332 -0.009
T-SLG 0.445 0.415 -0.030
T-OPS 0.786 0.747 -0.039

H-OBP 0.354 0.314 -0.040
H-SLG 0.480 0.392 -0.088
H-OPS 0.834 0.706 -0.128

R-OBP 0.323 0.344 0.021
R-SLG 0.399 0.432 0.033
R-OPS 0.722 0.776 0.054

The offense started slowly but started clicking after Brandon Phillips was moved up in the lineup and Scott Rolen took over cleanup duties. The team was average on the road, but other-wordly at GABP before The
Turnaround. Since, however, roles have been reversed. Production at home has fallen off quite a bit (no power at GABP?). But Reds' bats have stepped it up quite a bit on the road.

Finally, the record:

The Reds had fallen to 37-33. They were 23-17 at home, but below .500 at 14-16 on the road. That also has changed. They are still winning at home, but at a slower pace, at 13-9. On the road they have seriously picked up the pace at 18-9. I know this is cherrypicking again, but wipe that Philly fiasco off the schedule and they are an amazing 18-5 away from home since The Turnaround began.

These numbers were gleaned from two excellent baseball resources.

08-18-2010, 02:51 PM
Very nice post. I remember back when Dusty made the change. I think it was in Houston? That really sent this team off for sure

08-18-2010, 06:15 PM
Cherrypick those two series off that record and were neck and neck with
San Diego.