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fearofpopvol1
08-19-2010, 01:27 AM
They will win 90 games on the season. The Reds currently have 42 games left.

Is that doable?
Can the Reds go .500 the rest of the way?
Is 90 wins enough to win the division?
Or the wild card?

For fun, if they go .667 the rest of the way, they will win 97 games. If they go .740, they will win 100 games.

Given what you know now, how many games do you think the Reds will win by the end of the regular season?

guttle11
08-19-2010, 01:31 AM
I say 93, but that could change depending on the rest of the West Coast trip. Schedule starts to tilt their way a bit next weekend and "you know their story" vs weaker teams. A strong WC trip and 96-97 isn't crazy to think about.

oregonred
08-19-2010, 01:33 AM
.500 is 90-72, but suddenly 93-94 wins looks like a real good possibility whereas it looked remote to get the Reds to much over 90 after last week's Cardinals disaster.

It appears the WC is now going to take 93-94 wins with the way the Phils/Braves are piling up wins on a 24-hour basis. The Philly surge has really changed the equation (much to the detriment of the Reds/Cards). Unless the Braves collapse, then I think 93 minimum now to get a WC, probably more like 95 to be safe.

This could be 1999-unlucky for the Reds. The division is the easier path at this point with the Cards down to 12-over .500 once again.

Division is the much easier path now.

Brutus
08-19-2010, 01:36 AM
Here's an interesting thing to consider:

The Reds are currently 69-51. They've a .575 win percentage. They have 42 games remaining.

If they continue that pace, winning 57.5% of their games, they would go an estimated 24-18 the rest of the way. Seems reasonable yes?

If the Reds go 24-18, that means the Cards have to go 28-16 in their final 44 games to tie and 29-15 to win the division.

Food for thought.

redsfan30
08-19-2010, 01:42 AM
Screw the Wild Card, this division is there for the taking.

Topcat
08-19-2010, 04:47 AM
I am pleased not matter what. I knew and have believed that the farm would lead to us being relevant and hell yes we are!

reds1869
08-19-2010, 07:19 AM
Screw the Wild Card, this division is there for the taking.

Yep! I will be pleased with the season no matter what but I really believe the division title is within reach. With the way the other Wild Card contenders are playing it is also our best hope.

redsmetz
08-19-2010, 07:44 AM
Here's an interesting thing to consider:

The Reds are currently 69-51. They've a .575 win percentage. They have 42 games remaining.

If they continue that pace, winning 57.5% of their games, they would go an estimated 24-18 the rest of the way. Seems reasonable yes?

If the Reds go 24-18, that means the Cards have to go 28-16 in their final 44 games to tie and 29-15 to win the division.

Food for thought.

Seems like we're all on the same wave length. I looked at the .500 premise this morning, scratched out the numbers. If we just go .500 (and I think we do better than that), the Cardinals must go 26-18 to beat us by one game (.591 clip).

I'm not ready to count my chickens well before they're hatched, but we're in the driver seat. All we need to do is take care of our business and let the Cardinals fret. Certainly great collapses (or great finishes) have occurred (RIP, Bobby Thomson), but still, if we keep winning, it's our's. One game at a time.

edabbs44
08-19-2010, 08:30 AM
Screw the Wild Card, this division is there for the taking.

Just win, baby. Everything else will take care of itself.

http://lastangryfan.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/aldavis.jpg

Ghosts of 1990
08-19-2010, 09:02 AM
I'm greedy. Give me 93 wins and roll the dice

jojo
08-19-2010, 09:05 AM
Here's an interesting thing to consider:

The Reds are currently 69-51. They've a .575 win percentage. They have 42 games remaining.

If they continue that pace, winning 57.5% of their games, they would go an estimated 24-18 the rest of the way. Seems reasonable yes?

If the Reds go 24-18, that means the Cards have to go 28-16 in their final 44 games to tie and 29-15 to win the division.

Food for thought.

.575 the rest of the way wins the division. .500 the rest of the way probably wins it...... This has been a huge, huge week.

_Sir_Charles_
08-19-2010, 10:55 AM
I've stuck with it all season long, and I'll continue to...my sig. But I think I undershot it...and most people thought I was being too optimistic. :O)

The only thing I'm starting to think I've missed on is the missing out on the wild card part. I thought prior to the start of the season that the Cards were good, but not great. I've been reassessing that view. They've got 4 or 5 excellent players, but after that the talent level drops off rather heavily. I personally don't like our odds if we're relegated to the wild card....but I don't think we'll have to be.

Cedric
08-19-2010, 10:56 AM
They will win 90 games on the season. The Reds currently have 42 games left.

Is that doable?
Can the Reds go .500 the rest of the way?
Is 90 wins enough to win the division?
Or the wild card?

For fun, if they go .667 the rest of the way, they will win 97 games. If they go .740, they will win 100 games.

Given what you know now, how many games do you think the Reds will win by the end of the regular season?

Good/Great teams usually play .600 ball or better going down the stretch. Going to be playing a ton of teams with completely new/terrible rosters.

redsmetz
08-19-2010, 11:10 AM
I've stuck with it all season long, and I'll continue to...my sig. But I think I undershot it...and most people thought I was being too optimistic. :O)

The only thing I'm starting to think I've missed on is the missing out on the wild card part. I thought prior to the start of the season that the Cards were good, but not great. I've been reassessing that view. They've got 4 or 5 excellent players, but after that the talent level drops off rather heavily. I personally don't like our odds if we're relegated to the wild card....but I don't think we'll have to be.

Your guess, shown in your sig, would pretty much do in the Cardinals. That one extra win, which would put us just above .500 in our remaining games (it's .524), forces the Cardinals to go 27-17 or to play .614 ball.

Ghosts of 1990
08-19-2010, 11:14 AM
The 2010 Reds are currently 69-51.

The 1990 Reds were 68-52 on this date.

Cyclone792
08-19-2010, 11:16 AM
Through 120 games last year, the Reds were 51-69. They finished 27-15 to reach 78 wins. That means in the last 162 games, the Reds are 96-66.

And I'll certainly take a repeat of last year's final 42 again this year. If the Reds win 96 games, they're in.

fearofpopvol1
08-19-2010, 12:41 PM
Through 120 games last year, the Reds were 51-69. They finished 27-15 to reach 78 wins. That means in the last 162 games, the Reds are 96-66.

And I'll certainly take a repeat of last year's final 42 again this year. If the Reds win 96 games, they're in.

And the interesting part is a lot of things have changed since that time, particularly the rotation and the bullpen.

Roy Tucker
08-19-2010, 01:12 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Milkmaid_and_Her_Pail

redsmetz
08-19-2010, 07:48 PM
NM

cincrazy
08-19-2010, 08:18 PM
Through 120 games last year, the Reds were 51-69. They finished 27-15 to reach 78 wins. That means in the last 162 games, the Reds are 96-66.

And I'll certainly take a repeat of last year's final 42 again this year. If the Reds win 96 games, they're in.

SHHHHH!!!!! 1999 says hello :).

cincrazy
08-19-2010, 08:24 PM
The Cards have NINE games remaining against the Pirates. Certainly, being 3 games up is a plus. But this baby is far from over.