PDA

View Full Version : Jordan Smith



UPRedsFan
08-20-2010, 10:36 AM
In his last 5 games Smith has a WHIP of 2.15. He's given up 8 hits (including 2 HR's) and 2 walks in his last 4 2/3 innings.

Is he potentially the odd man out for the playoffs? Will Chapman take his spot? Or will it be Bray?

What's your prediction and what's your opinion?

Captain13
08-20-2010, 10:45 AM
I think Chapman will take Bray's spot, but Springer, Izzy or Fisher could battle for Smith's spot. Personally I think it will be Chapman and Leake in the pen (you only need four starters in the post-season).

Old NDN
08-20-2010, 11:36 AM
That spot may go to Harang.

RNTquack1
08-20-2010, 01:16 PM
I think Chapman will take Bray's spot, but Springer, Izzy or Fisher could battle for Smith's spot. Personally I think it will be Chapman and Leake in the pen (you only need four starters in the post-season).

I couldn't agree more!:thumbup:

swaisuc
08-20-2010, 02:17 PM
I think Chapman will take Bray's spot, but Springer, Izzy or Fisher could battle for Smith's spot. Personally I think it will be Chapman and Leake in the pen (you only need four starters in the post-season).

I really hope both Bray and Chapman make the postseason roster. Despite having 3 lefties, they really fit different roles. Bray can be a LOOGY to get us out of big spots in the 6th/7th and Chapman will hopefully be someone who can come in and blow people away for an inning or 2 when needed. Rhodes is the 8th inning guy or to get out of big jams.

Plus, if you look at potential opponents, we're going to need plenty of options to get good lefties like AGonz, Howard, Utley, Heyward out. Even guys like Huff and Sandoval from SF, I would like to be able to throw a lefty at without burning Rhodes/Chapman too early or too often.

UPRedsFan
08-20-2010, 03:03 PM
Here's my post season pen:

Cordero
Rhodes
Masset
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Leake

I'd love to see Harang get the chance at post season play, but can't see where to fit him in barring injury to someone.

GIDP
08-20-2010, 03:05 PM
relievers have bad periods. Id let it go more than 5 games before I worry too much. He is a ground ball guy might be a little tired so the balls are floating up in the zone. Too early to toss him out.

RedsFanInBama
08-20-2010, 03:20 PM
Can someone explain to me postseason rosters? I was under the impression that unless a player was on the disabled list or a player replaced a guy going on the disabled list, they had to be on the active roster by Aug. 31 to play in the postseason.

So how is Chapman on the postseason roster if he isn't up until the call-ups?

Knightro28
08-20-2010, 03:38 PM
Can someone explain to me postseason rosters? I was under the impression that unless a player was on the disabled list or a player replaced a guy going on the disabled list, they had to be on the active roster by Aug. 31 to play in the postseason.

So how is Chapman on the postseason roster if he isn't up until the call-ups?

The official move is made August 31 after a game? He doesn't arrive until day of September 1?

GIDP
08-20-2010, 04:20 PM
Chapman can be on the roster because they have players on the 60 man DL. They are allowed to use an exemption or something.

scott91575
08-20-2010, 04:59 PM
relievers have bad periods. Id let it go more than 5 games before I worry too much. He is a ground ball guy might be a little tired so the balls are floating up in the zone. Too early to toss him out.

He had a an ERA over 5 in AA (38 total appearances).

I personally think his first 20 games were more of an aberration. Guys with ERA's in over 5 in AA don't normally show up in the majors and have an ERA under 3 for any extended period of time.

texasdave
08-20-2010, 05:00 PM
Can someone explain to me postseason rosters? I was under the impression that unless a player was on the disabled list or a player replaced a guy going on the disabled list, they had to be on the active roster by Aug. 31 to play in the postseason.

So how is Chapman on the postseason roster if he isn't up until the call-ups?


This link explains it pretty well: http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/08/playoff-roster-eligibility-rules/

Redeye fly
08-20-2010, 05:36 PM
He had a an ERA over 5 in AA (38 total appearances).

I personally think his first 20 games were more of an aberration. Guys with ERA's in over 5 in AA don't normally show up in the majors and have an ERA under 3 for any extended period of time.

The ERA over 5 might be the real aberration. I remember I was with pretty much everyone else when he was called up with those numbers. It was like, "Why call him up?". But from what I understand/can vaguely remember, there was a bit of an explanation, as he had a bit of a rough transition converting from a starter to a reliever. I believe he may have also had a problem with one of his pitches that he's either junked or since fixed. I don't remember all of it, and I could be dead wrong. But I do remember the Reds broadcast crew saying he'd been pitching much better than that 5.00 plus ERA of late in Double AA when they called him up.

Really, just looking at the kind of stuff he has, I don't know how he could have put together an ERA over 5.00 at Double A unless he simply couldn't locate, which probably would have been something in his mechanics, or that there were other circumstances effecting things. But we'll find out, I guess.

scott91575
08-20-2010, 06:08 PM
The ERA over 5 might be the real aberration. I remember I was with pretty much everyone else when he was called up with those numbers. It was like, "Why call him up?". But from what I understand/can vaguely remember, there was a bit of an explanation, as he had a bit of a rough transition converting from a starter to a reliever. I believe he may have also had a problem with one of his pitches that he's either junked or since fixed. I don't remember all of it, and I could be dead wrong. But I do remember the Reds broadcast crew saying he'd been pitching much better than that 5.00 plus ERA of late in Double AA when they called him up.

Really, just looking at the kind of stuff he has, I don't know how he could have put together an ERA over 5.00 at Double A unless he simply couldn't locate, which probably would have been something in his mechanics, or that there were other circumstances effecting things. But we'll find out, I guess.

I do take back one thing, his ERA in AA was 4.42 overall in 51 games.

Even then, he gave up 187 hits in 157 innings. There is really nothing in the minors that projects to him being a sub 3 ERA guy in the majors. He may develop into a decent bullpen guy, but everything points to him staying above 3 (meaning his recent stretch should have been expected) or maybe worse.

Kingspoint
08-20-2010, 06:09 PM
There's 41 games left to be played and Jordan Smith will be on the team for all 41 of them.

UPRedsFan
08-20-2010, 07:30 PM
But he won't be on the playoff team.

demas863
08-20-2010, 08:08 PM
Here's my post season pen:

Cordero
Rhodes
Masset
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Leake

I'd love to see Harang get the chance at post season play, but can't see where to fit him in barring injury to someone.

demas863
08-20-2010, 08:09 PM
Substitute Harang for Bray and you've got it. Reds won't go into playoffs without Harang.

bshall2105
08-20-2010, 08:10 PM
Substitute Harang for Bray and you've got it. Reds won't go into playoffs without Harang.

Hope that was sarcasm.

GIDP
08-20-2010, 08:31 PM
He had a an ERA over 5 in AA (38 total appearances).

I personally think his first 20 games were more of an aberration. Guys with ERA's in over 5 in AA don't normally show up in the majors and have an ERA under 3 for any extended period of time.

He also just recently switched to relieving, and had a bad start. He was trending in the right direction.

Redeye fly
08-20-2010, 10:50 PM
I do take back one thing, his ERA in AA was 4.42 overall in 51 games.

Even then, he gave up 187 hits in 157 innings. There is really nothing in the minors that projects to him being a sub 3 ERA guy in the majors. He may develop into a decent bullpen guy, but everything points to him staying above 3 (meaning his recent stretch should have been expected) or maybe worse.

He was pretty good at Billings in 2006 and Dayton in 2007. He was extremely successful in 10 starts at Sarasota in 2008 before struggling and getting hit around in his first crack at Double A that year.

Then in 2009 he did this, again at Double A, he had a 3.44 ERA while giving up 77 hits in 73.3 innings. Not great, but hardly horrible.

This year was the first time in his professional career he pitched out of the pen, so he had to make another adjustment. He got off to a tough start, but as GIDP mentioned, he was trending in the right direction.

I think the key thing is does he seem to have the stuff to get major league hitters out. To me, it seems that he does. He can crank it up to 94-95 at times, and his control is usually very good, and most of the time his pitches stay down. When he pitches up with a purpose, he has enough on his fastball to blow some hitters away up the ladder. I noticed too that at the start of 2009 Baseball America rated his slider as the best in the Reds system.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

GIDP
08-20-2010, 11:53 PM
Jordan Smith might not be closer, he could be down the line, but odds are he pitches well enough to have a major league job. His control and GB rate will keep him around. He has to keep those 2 things going for him though.

Kingspoint
08-21-2010, 02:37 AM
But he won't be on the playoff team.

He's got 40 games to make a case for himself.

gedred69
08-21-2010, 01:25 PM
He was originally brought up simply because he had the hot hand at the time. For the most part he has validated that. He was rated the most improved arm in the system 2 years ago at Sarasota, promoted to AA by the All-Star break. Started off okay, then came the arm/shoulder problems (don't remember which), and was DL'ed. Ditto last year. The decision was made this year to make a reliever of him. He keeps the ball down with this infield it's an out.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 12:38 AM
Sorry guys, still not buying Smith for this year.

He now has given up 13 hits, 1 BB (2.33 WHIP), 3 HR's and 8 ER in his last 6 innings. He is not looking good, and he is not keeping the ball down.

757690
08-24-2010, 01:05 AM
Smith is a sinker ball pitcher, so he's going to give up hits. As long as he keeps his BB's down, which he has since being called up, and his HR's down, which has been a problem for him of late, he'll not only be fine, but very productive.

He has closer stuff, and a closer mentality. He does hit 95 at times on the gun with movement, and has great control. If he can keep his HR rate low, he can be a very effective closer or set up man for years.

And I have been very impressed with the way he has pitched tonight in relief of Volquez. He came in the toughest spot possible for a reliever, the first inning, and only allowed a two run homer in over 4 innings. It's hard to expect much more, given the situation.

RedsFanInBama
08-24-2010, 01:09 AM
He has the look of a right-handed specialist. Go look up his numbers against lefties. He's a huge liability against anyone swinging from that side of the plate.

Boston Red
08-24-2010, 01:28 AM
He hits the hell out of the ball, too. That was a tape measure blast to left if it was a few more feet to the right.

RedsFanInBama
08-24-2010, 01:31 AM
He hits the hell out of the ball, too. That was a tape measure blast to left if it was a few more feet to the right.
That foul ball was the most exciting part of the game for Reds fans.

Kingspoint
08-24-2010, 04:22 AM
Took one for the team tonight.

Thanks, Jordan.

Oh....and nice at-bats, too.

We may have ourselves another pinch-hitter.

demas863
08-24-2010, 01:07 PM
Here's my post season pen:

Cordero
Rhodes
Masset
Chapman
Ondrusek
Bray
Leake

I'd love to see Harang get the chance at post season play, but can't see where to fit him in barring injury to someone.

Harang for Bray.

Kingspoint
08-24-2010, 06:27 PM
Harang for Bray.

Never in a million years.

Redeye fly
08-24-2010, 09:23 PM
I don't know about Harang for Bray or Harang for anyone, but I would wait on two things.

1. Actually making the playoffs- I do expect us to get there, but the tickets
aren't printed yet. It's fun to finally speculate about it again though.

2. Wait and see how Chapman actually does. Yes he throws over 100 mph.
He's also never pitched in a major league game, let alone in September with
the playoffs on the line. If he comes up and has trouble throwing strikes or
has any other problems, I don't see how he can be in your postseason
bullpen over guys who might have lesser stuff or talent, but better results.

Kingspoint
08-24-2010, 10:55 PM
I don't want Harang anywhere near the playoff roster.

bshall2105
08-24-2010, 10:57 PM
I don't want Harang anywhere near the playoff roster.

But... but... he's given so much to this orginization.

Kiss the Baby00
08-24-2010, 10:59 PM
But... but... he's given so much to this orginization.

id argue that the reds gave harang way more than he could ever possibly hope to give back.

Kingspoint
08-24-2010, 11:01 PM
But... but... he's given so much to this orginization.

(I know you're being sarcastic, but I just wanted to add...)

In 1990, some tough decisions had to be made.

Jack Armstrong, the National League Starter in the All-Star Game was moved to the pen for the playoff roster. Some other deserving players couldn't get on the roster.

The playoff roster needs to be the best 25 players, and Aaron Harang isn't even in the top 35.