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Scrap Irony
08-21-2010, 03:06 AM
Looking ahead to the end of the regular season and what may come after, Baker and company have, through happenstance, luck, and forethought, a fairly well-rested rotation, plus two.

So, Red fans, who's your number one? Who's now a TOR starter, in your opinion. Who would you want to see start against the Giants? the Bravos? the Padres? the Phillies?

Is Bailey TOR now? Does he need more starts? If so, how many?

How about Cueto?

Would you gamble on Arroyo's guile? Volquez's velocity? Wood's wonderful body of work?

Enquiring minds and all that.

Tornon
08-21-2010, 03:09 AM
Right now I think I'd go with Cueto, because he seems to be the one that most consistently shuts down the other team and if he has a bad start it's usually something like 6 IP 4 ER. However, if Homer does anything close to what he did last year down the stretch here, I'd have to consider giving him the ball as the #1.

However, that's just my opinion. I believe Dusty will send out Arroyo in game 1 of a playoff series if we see one

NDRed
08-21-2010, 03:18 AM
Wasn't there something with Arroyo not wanting to pitch opening day?

Tornon
08-21-2010, 03:21 AM
Wasn't there something with Arroyo not wanting to pitch opening day?

I believe that was a more of a combination of a not wanting to upstage Harang thing, and I'm guessing he did some partying the night before the season started and didn't want to bog the team down if he had been hungover

BearcatShane
08-21-2010, 03:22 AM
If the Reds are fortunate enough to make the postseason, I would just start the hottest of the Reds starters at the time. Homer has looked good...

marcshoe
08-21-2010, 03:24 AM
I was thinking about this earlier. I know this is getting ahead of myself, but in the postseason I'd pitcch Cueto, then Arroyo for a change of pace, then Bailey.

Phhhl
08-21-2010, 03:38 AM
Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo

Mario-Rijo
08-21-2010, 05:34 AM
I'd look at some combination of best matchup, hottest hands and who has had how much rest going in. For example if they are playing Philly.....

I'd probably go something like Volquez, Wood, Cueto, Arroyo, Homer.
St. Louis I'd go Volquez, Wood, Homer, Cueto, Arroyo.
San Diego I'd probably go something like Bailey, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Wood.

mth123
08-21-2010, 07:43 AM
Too many variables at this point.

Cueto and Wood could both be out of gas by then.
Volquez may not get his command together.
Bailey could revert.
Only Arroyo seems a lock and truth be told, if they all are at the top of their game, he's the number 5.

If everyone is pitching their best, I'd say Bailey, Volquez, Cueto, Wood and Arroyo is how they line up. Since that won't be the case, I'd guess we're likely to see Arroyo, Cueto, and a fight to the finish.

HokieRed
08-21-2010, 09:36 AM
Depends on what happens between now and the end of the season. I'd put it this way: for the sake of our getting there and having a chance when we do, we need to hope the consensus is that Bailey is our number 1.

hebroncougar
08-21-2010, 09:49 AM
For me, I go Wood, Cueto, Bailey, Arroyo, and Volquez. If we make the playoffs, I'd throw Wood first.

SMcGavin
08-21-2010, 10:45 AM
Good question. I think Cueto and Arroyo, barring injury or collapse, are sure things for a playoff rotation if we make it there. The other two spots are completely up in the air. You'd probably have to go Wood and Bailey right now. That leaves Volquez, Leake, Harang on the outside looking in.

Joseph
08-21-2010, 11:02 AM
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Wood
Volquez

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 11:15 AM
Arroyo,
Cueto,
Wood,
Bailey,
Volquez,
Next year remove Arroyo place Chapman in Rotation and lets go win our second championship in as many years!

traderumor
08-21-2010, 11:23 AM
1. Cueto-most likely to hang with the other #1
2. Arroyo-if we lose game 1 to their ace, then he wins the must game most often
3. Wood-hopefully the first two haven't worn out the pen, cause right now he's a 6 inning pitcher.
4. Bailey-moving up fast though. I like the fact he's been getting ahead of hitters since coming back
5. Volquez-tired of hearing about stuff, learn how to get the ball over the plate or he'll never be anymore than the dreaded "potential"
6. Leake-arm's tired, can't get sinking action on the ball consistently as a result. Bright future, but his production is used up this year, I'm afraid (love to be wrong about that, but...)
7. Harang-not showing up on the radar

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2010, 12:48 PM
I was thinking about this earlier. I know this is getting ahead of myself, but in the postseason I'd pitcch Cueto, then Arroyo for a change of pace, then Bailey.

Exactly the way I'd do it. I know many are enamoured of Wood (and I love the kid too), but Bailey's got MUCH better stuff IMO. And since that Pittsburgh 1 hitter, he's been VERY good. He's looked very much like the late 2nd half Homer of last season.

VR
08-21-2010, 01:00 PM
7. Harang-not showing up on the radar

Perhaps he can be Cabrera's assistant bat boy during the playoffs?


Wasn't there something with Arroyo not wanting to pitch opening day?

I believe that was our of deferrence to Harang.


If they face Philly, I'd start w/ Wood.

otherwise...

Arroyo
Cueto
Wood
Bailey
EV

Spitball
08-21-2010, 01:10 PM
If they face Philly, I'd start w/ Wood.


I'm not sure I'd want to put the opening game pressure on a rookie pitcher. I know individuals vary, but I remember myself questioning LaRussa's wisdom when he started out with Ankiel against the Braves a few years ago.

Rojo
08-21-2010, 01:36 PM
Everyone's a little eager in the first game of a post-game series. That's no time to test a pitcher who can be wild.

And hitters are likely to swing out of their shoes and get themselves out.

I'd start with Arroyo.

NDRed
08-21-2010, 03:04 PM
From Fay via Cincy.com

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/03/03/harang-will-start-opening-day/

Arroyo did not want to start Opening Day.

“Nobody’s more honest than Bronson,” Baker said. “It might not be what you want to hear but he won’t give you bull. I love that.”

“Dusty said he read the article where I said if I had my choice I’d rather not start the opener,” Arroyo said. “I told him it was true. But I throw whenever you me to. Whatever is best for the team.”

Arroyo is not doing that merely out of personal preference.

“I honestly thing Aaron is better equipped to make the start,” Arroyo said. “He’s going to be 90 to 92 with his slider, even when he’s off. My bad days tend to be really bad.”

I doubt that means anything for the playoffs but you never know.

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 03:31 PM
you guys do realize the 'epicness' of having Edison Volquez as the teams number 5 is right. what does that say about the staff :cool:.

VR
08-21-2010, 03:44 PM
you guys do realize the 'epicness' of having Edison Volquez as the teams number 5 is right. what does that say about the staff :cool:.

Josh Hamilton for a #5 starter....sheesh....;)

traderumor
08-21-2010, 03:53 PM
you guys do realize the 'epicness' of having Edison Volquez as the teams number 5 is right. what does that say about the staff :cool:.The rankings are based on performance, not potential. Volquez is coming off injury, otherwise he would likely be higher in the pecking order.

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 03:56 PM
Josh Hamilton for a #5 starter....sheesh....;)

:rolleyes:

VR
08-21-2010, 03:59 PM
The rankings are based on performance, not potential. Volquez is coming off injury, otherwise he would likely be higher in the pecking order.

His stuff is best of the staff....if the control gets reigned in, he's bonafide.

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 04:01 PM
The rankings are based on performance, not potential. Volquez is coming off injury, otherwise he would likely be higher in the pecking order.

oh I know that, I was just saying that having someone like volquez who has stellar stuff and all the potential in the world to be a dominate number 1 is your 5th starter and your team is 20 games over .500 with a 4 and 1/2 games lead in the division, breaking a west coast curse, and have a pretty easy road after the trip. trying to just realize the 'epicness' of it all.

Scrap Irony
08-21-2010, 04:13 PM
Next season, I'm guessing he'll be pencilled in as the #3, behind Cueto and Bailey. Add Wood and Leake behind (not to mention Chapman, Maloney, and, to a lesser extent, LeCure and Klinker) and the rotation should again be a strength next season.

That would be five guys that have flashed TOR stuff and results for at least a five start stretch in the major leagues and are just entering their primes. I know that doesn't sound like much, but what other NL rotations can boast of that?

San Francisco, sure. Atlanta, perhaps. St. Louis if you include Penny and Lohse.

That's all I can think of.

Amazing.

Chip R
08-21-2010, 04:18 PM
Bronson, unlike any of the other starters, has postseason experience.

The Voice of IH
08-21-2010, 04:19 PM
Next season, I'm guessing he'll be pencilled in as the #3, behind Cueto and Bailey. Add Wood and Leake behind (not to mention Chapman, Maloney, and, to a lesser extent, LeCure and Klinker) and the rotation should again be a strength next season.

That would be five guys that have flashed TOR stuff and results for at least a five start stretch in the major leagues and are just entering their primes. I know that doesn't sound like much, but what other NL rotations can boast of that?

San Francisco, sure. Atlanta, perhaps. St. Louis if you include Penny and Lohse.

That's all I can think of.

Amazing.

is it even remotely possible that the reds decide to start with a 6 man rotation? and wait till one starts to falter to move to the pen. I used to laugh it off but now I think we have to at least consider it.

Caveat Emperor
08-21-2010, 04:44 PM
Bronson, unlike any of the other starters, has postseason experience.

And got punked by A-Rod in the process:
http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2004/10/20/1098248926_0978.jpg

Chip R
08-21-2010, 06:12 PM
And got punked by A-Rod in the process:

Punked? A-Rod slapped the ball out of his hand like a little girl.

Ghosts of 1990
08-21-2010, 08:22 PM
To me:

1) Bailey
2) Cueto
3) Arroyo
4) Wood
5) Volquez

dougdirt
08-21-2010, 08:35 PM
As of today, for me its tough.... Cueto and Wood are 1-2. Arroyo has results, but that doesn't mean I trust him to keep getting them. Bailey and Volquez have the best pure stuff on the staff, but they haven't been consistent enough this year yet. Real tough question to answer.

mth123
08-21-2010, 09:24 PM
Next season, I'm guessing he'll be pencilled in as the #3, behind Cueto and Bailey. Add Wood and Leake behind (not to mention Chapman, Maloney, and, to a lesser extent, LeCure and Klinker) and the rotation should again be a strength next season.

That would be five guys that have flashed TOR stuff and results for at least a five start stretch in the major leagues and are just entering their primes. I know that doesn't sound like much, but what other NL rotations can boast of that?

San Francisco, sure. Atlanta, perhaps. St. Louis if you include Penny and Lohse.

That's all I can think of.

Amazing.

I hope they don't go with all kids like that. I want a vet who can take one for the team when the situation calls for it. I don't want any of these young kids being abused that way. I think bringing Arroyo back is the minimum that they should do in that regard. I'd prefer some one better.

_Sir_Charles_
08-21-2010, 10:52 PM
I hope they don't go with all kids like that. I want a vet who can take one for the team when the situation calls for it. I don't want any of these young kids being abused that way. I think bringing Arroyo back is the minimum that they should do in that regard. I'd prefer some one better.

I partially agree. We need to remember though that Edinson is not really a kid. He's 27. And Cueto, while still only 24, he'll have 3 full seasons under his belt come next season. Certainly not a "vet", but not exactly a rook either. Homer's in a similar situation as Cueto in terms of experience.

But I'd certainly not be against Bronson coming back.

mth123
08-22-2010, 05:05 AM
I partially agree. We need to remember though that Edinson is not really a kid. He's 27. And Cueto, while still only 24, he'll have 3 full seasons under his belt come next season. Certainly not a "vet", but not exactly a rook either. Homer's in a similar situation as Cueto in terms of experience.

But I'd certainly not be against Bronson coming back.

25 and Under = kid.

Coming off TJ = not somebody to count on for lots of IP.

Arroyo is the only established, time tested, starter on the staff. Even Cueto, while solid in the rotation, is a little guy who is still young enough to need his armed babied a bit and I'm not convinced he can or should fill the 220 IP staff foundation role. All the others are still question marks IMO. They are all very promising, but I'd like the team to lock down some reliable innings as a foundation. Those other questions will play out and I'm pretty sure there will be enough positive answers to make the future bright, but get something to rely on as well.

HokieRed
08-22-2010, 08:22 AM
You've got to hope it starts with Bailey. Best chance to absolutely close a good lineup down.

Ghosts of 1990
08-23-2010, 12:01 AM
It occurred to me today... Arroyo is going to end up with 18 or 19 wins this season and lead the staff. And they're going to let him walk. That's the only thing that seems sure to me. They have 'too many arms' and they'll look at the $11 million price tag and just bid him goodbye.

Foolish move IMHO. Arroyo is so solid and has blended perfectly here. I think that if anything you trade one of the young arms. I'd keep Bailey, Cueto, Wood, and EITHER Leake or Volquez. Honestly I think Leake's future is the farthest from a sure thing of any of them. But it's very clear to me that not only Harang but Arroyo will not be back next year and I think that's one ingredient of a winning team that we won't have next season, a guy who anchors your staff. He's the most consistent and closest thing to a stopper this team has and I'd hate it if he's not back next year because that would be one thing that would keep us from re-creating the magic of 2010.

HokieRed
08-23-2010, 12:09 AM
It occurred to me today... Arroyo is going to end up with 18 or 19 wins this season and lead the staff. And they're going to let him walk. That's the only thing that seems sure to me. They have 'too many arms' and they'll look at the $11 million price tag and just bid him goodbye.

Foolish move IMHO. Arroyo is so solid and has blended perfectly here. I think that if anything you trade one of the young arms. I'd keep Bailey, Cueto, Wood, and EITHER Leake or Volquez. Honestly I think Leake's future is the farthest from a sure thing of any of them. But it's very clear to me that not only Harang but Arroyo will not be back next year and I think that's one ingredient of a winning team that we won't have next season, a guy who anchors your staff. He's the most consistent and closest thing to a stopper this team has and I'd hate it if he's not back next year because that would be one thing that would keep us from re-creating the magic of 2010.

I think we'll see Walt move more slowly on this than some think. I predict Arroyo will be back and the whole cast, minus Harang, may well be at spring training.

Scrap Irony
08-23-2010, 12:29 AM
Arroyo is on the wrong side of 30 and could fall apart in a flash. The Reds are seven deep in quality arms 27 and under. Why gamble on an expensive arm when you have younger, cheaper options?

Cueto is a veteran who can offer 200+ IP. He's taken a huge step forward this season and is probably the best pitcher on the staff. He's the Cincinnati ace right now.

Volquez will be 27 and a seven-year veteran, not to mention ready for the grind of a full season after his half-season in 2010. He's the only All Star of the group and fully capable of winning 20 next season. He's your former ace and could very well be again.

Bailey's now flashing TOR stuff again for the second year in a row. If he continues to pitch this well, he's your ace.

Wood has proven he belongs on any staff in baseball, dominating lesser offenses for seven major league starts. He's been a TOR starter statistically throughout his emergence at Cincinnati and could be your ace as early as next season.

Leake was the best pitcher on the staff for the first fifteen starts of the season and pitches very similarly to Arroyo. Why pay massive amounts of cash for the expensive one when you've got the poor man's Arroyo in your rotation already?

None of this mentions Chapman, whose talent is HoF worthy and Maloney, who could start on at least half the teams in the National League.

Arroyo, in 2011, will be a luxury. Jocketty may keep him, as he really prefers veterans. Honestly, IMO, he could find better uses for that $12 million.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 12:44 AM
Arroyo, in 2011, will be a luxury. Jocketty may keep him, as he really prefers veterans. Honestly, IMO, he could find better uses for that $12 million.

It's only an extra $9M when you consider the buyout.

dougdirt
08-23-2010, 04:12 AM
It's only an extra $9M when you consider the buyout.
Still a nice chunk of cash that we could spend in other places. Arroyo continues to outpitch his peripherals, but its a risk I wouldn't take at that price.

Caveat Emperor
08-23-2010, 09:23 AM
Still a nice chunk of cash that we could spend in other places. Arroyo continues to outpitch his peripherals, but its a risk I wouldn't take at that price.

When has Arroyo ever pitched to his peripherals?

He's a 200-220IP arm that never misses a start and has the ability, on any given day, to be a shut-down pitcher.

I'm of the mind you pay him his $9 and go shopping with 1 of the young arms and a few prospects to go fill some of the holes on the team. SS and LF remain a need for 2011 and beyond, and it wouldn't kill them to start thinking about life after Scott Rolen either.

UKFlounder
08-23-2010, 10:07 AM
Without Bronson, we have Homer, who has shown flashes of being good, but even longer and more flashes of not being good. Can you count on him?

Volquez was great in 2008, but now has had TJ surgery. 2008 may well have been a fluke. Do we want to count on him regaining that magic and now staying healthy?

Chapman has a great arm, but totally unproven. What are the Reds' plans for him - bullpen or starter? If starter, how will he do? He's a great prospect to have, but still has plenty of questions about him.

Cueto seems to be establishing himself as a very good pitcher and one we should be able to count on next year. He's a "glue guy" right now.

Leake? Again, he showed a lot of potential, but the 2nd and 3rd times around the league, he has struggled. Which is the real Leake and can we count on the good one to show up next year?

Wood? He has looked awfully good and would seem to have earned a job for next year. I guess we could question how he will fare in a full season, when teams have more scouting reports and have seen him multiple times, but I think that, as of right now, Cueto and Wood are the two (besides Bronson) with the fewest question marks about him.

Without Bronson, the Reds have a lot of nice arms, but not many proven quality pitchers. The $9 million to spend elsewhere would be nice, but that leaves a LOT of question marks and a lot of youth in the rotation, with really only one proven pitcher (Cueto) who has done well for more than 1 big-league season, Volquez, who has had 1 good year, and a couple of guys who have had a few good weeks or moths.

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 12:15 PM
Still a nice chunk of cash that we could spend in other places. Arroyo continues to outpitch his peripherals, but its a risk I wouldn't take at that price.

True, but if this team makes the you-know-what this season (not gonna jinx it)...we just might see an increase in the payroll regardless.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 12:57 PM
Still a nice chunk of cash that we could spend in other places. Arroyo continues to outpitch his peripherals, but its a risk I wouldn't take at that price.

Normally I would agree with you, but I think a strong case can be made for Arroyo's pitch to contact style. It has worked for 4 years here, and there really is no sign of him slowing down. It's not like his stuff is going to deteriote significantly over the next year, at least IMO. Especially considering next year will be a contract year, and he has made it clear he wants the dollar bills.

37red
08-23-2010, 01:50 PM
Everyone's a little eager in the first game of a post-game series. That's no time to test a pitcher who can be wild.

And hitters are likely to swing out of their shoes and get themselves out.

I'd start with Arroyo.


I think Rojo has it down. Plus Bailey STILL feels the pressure from everyone wanting and expecting him to be a super star right out of AAA.