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Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 12:47 PM
After reading the thread about who to start assuming the Reds make the playoffs and seeing quite a few people suggesting Homer at the top or near it I just couldn't believe what I was hearing. I said to myself, hey self maybe your wrong maybe his stuff is TOR material. So let's just put this baby to rest once and for all. Is Homer a TOR guy or is he a BOR guy who just happened to have improved enough that he can give the mirage of a TOR guy against inferior competition.

During the beginning of 2009 (when he improved) until present Homers line reads like so:

177 IP, 176 Hits, 137 K's, 19 HR's and 75 Walks, 4.53 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, xFIP ERA 4.35

What about those #'s suggests he is anything close to a TOR arm? If his stuff is TOR why isn't he producing TOR results? He's not even close, IMO he's a BOR arm who is defense dependant to keep his ERA down. Which there is nothing wrong with but why do people believe he has TOR stuff?

I'm willing to be wrong as I'm one who believes results aren't everything but not willing to sit and be told he's one thing when he's not showing it in any way, shape or form. Someone please explain why I'm wrong. Because what I'm seeing is a #4 on a good defensive team and an eventual minor leaguer on a team with a poor defense.

_Sir_Charles_
08-22-2010, 01:00 PM
For me, it's just a gut instinct that he'll end up as a number 1. I've seen him struggle when he tries to overthrow. I've seen him struggle during the early chillier months too. But since about the middle of last season, I've seen consistent improvement. He's not overthrowing anymore, and when he gets hit, he settles back down and digs in. Yeah, he struggled early this year, but I'm convinced he's simply not a cool weather pitcher. During those early season games, he struggled early in the game and then steadily got better as the game wore on. I think he is just slow to warm up, even more so on chillier days. IMO this is something the coaching staff needs to work on with him...more cardio on those days to get his blood pumping prior to a start. Sure, he might not last as long in the game, but he won't get shelled right off the bat either. But like I said, I've got no 'evidence', just a gut feeling.

GOYA
08-22-2010, 01:18 PM
Homer is not a finished product. He still has maturing to do. He certainly wasn't a finished product at the beginning of 2009.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 01:22 PM
Homer is not a finished product. He still has maturing to do. He certainly wasn't a finished product at the beginning of 2009.

Ok didn't mean to imply he was, still I am not seeing TOR stuff from him.

TRF
08-22-2010, 01:32 PM
Ok didn't mean to imply he was, still I am not seeing TOR stuff from him.

Are you seeing Stud OF from Bruce?

The Voice of IH
08-22-2010, 01:33 PM
can someone please send me a link that explains TOR and BOR, I hear it all the time used. and I am assuming that TOR is REALLY GOOD, but can someone give me something to read on it, I can't find anything.

JaxRed
08-22-2010, 01:35 PM
TOR -Top of Rotation a #1
BOR - Back of rotation a 4 or 5

wheels
08-22-2010, 01:38 PM
can someone please send me a link that explains TOR and BOR, I hear it all the time used. and I am assuming that TOR is REALLY GOOD, but can someone give me something to read on it, I can't find anything.

Hah! For the longest time, I thought TOR meant the guy came from Toronto, or that Toronto has such a great staff that if he could pitch for Toronto that made him really, really good.

Seriously, there have been all kinds of esoteric arguments about what makes a guy worthy of his slot in the rotation.

I don't really go in for it, because over the course of a season, things tend to get jumbled up anyway.

I guess it's just another way of saying a guy is or isn't worthy of not having his starts skipped during the season.

TheNext44
08-22-2010, 01:43 PM
I think it's premature to say that he came of age in 2009, or has yet.

That's why many think he can be a TOR starter.

Cueto has similar numbers up until this year.

Ghosts of 1990
08-22-2010, 01:49 PM
Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=baileho02&t=p&year=2009&share=1.80#29-37-sum:pitching_gamelogs

6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.

He had a rough start to the year, but his last 4 starts not counting the one when he got hurt in Cleveland suggest he might be turning the corner. More of the same, dominating performances.

The pedigree has always been there. When he goes out and has an overpowering performance, he's doing what scouts always said he'd do. I think that's reason for the excitement in the fan base. We hear this often enough with other guys, but "He's only 24".

In terms of stuff that I can see, his stuff is as good as anyone we have. I've also heard guys like Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla say he's going to be a special pitcher as long as he stays healthy.

I think he's much more likely to be a true TOR starter despite his early struggles under inept management then Mike Leake for instance.

The Voice of IH
08-22-2010, 01:56 PM
TOR -Top of Rotation a #1
BOR - Back of rotation a 4 or 5

lol, that makes so much since that I did not think of it :D

RedsManRick
08-22-2010, 02:02 PM
Past performance is not a perfect predictor of future results, it's a starting point. And when you combine Bailey's past performance with his age and scouting assessments, there is great potential there. I don't know of anybody who is asserting with certitude that Homer is going to be a #1 or #2 guy and certainly not currently one. But it's a reasonable possibility in the future.

Would you mind citing some examples of the claims against which you're arguing? I suspect it's a bit of a strawman -- certainly from the perspective of the general understanding. As for his stuff, 95 mph heat and a hammer curve aren't exactly BOR material. Whether or not he can consistently get TOR results with that stuff is a different question.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:03 PM
I think it's premature to say that he came of age in 2009, or has yet.

That's why many think he can be a TOR starter.

Cueto has similar numbers up until this year.

There fixed the "came of age" quote.

Cueto is debatable but he just seems to do better against better competition than Homer does for the most part, Cueto gets fair results whenever he's not his own worst enemy with mechanics despite the competition. I'm not sure where Cueto will end up in a rotation probably as a #3.

Homer is often lumped in with Volquez where stuff is concerned. Volquez has shown TOR stuff at times with 206 K's in 196 IP also only 167 hits that season. Basically IMO good stuff equals stuff that misses bats completely (good K/9) and/or induces poor swings leading to low hits/9. If your not showing either ever then how good is your stuff really?

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:07 PM
Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=baileho02&t=p&year=2009&share=1.80#29-37-sum:pitching_gamelogs

6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.

He had a rough start to the year, but his last 4 starts not counting the one when he got hurt in Cleveland suggest he might be turning the corner. More of the same, dominating performances.

The pedigree has always been there. When he goes out and has an overpowering performance, he's doing what scouts always said he'd do. I think that's reason for the excitement in the fan base. We hear this often enough with other guys, but "He's only 24".

In terms of stuff that I can see, his stuff is as good as anyone we have. I've also heard guys like Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla say he's going to be a special pitcher as long as he stays healthy.

I think he's much more likely to be a true TOR starter despite his early struggles under inept management then Mike Leake for instance.

Even then his H/9 and K/9 (and his BB/9) were suggesting his results weren't a result of overpowering stuff, only the ERA is a great number. Defense and poor opposition (4 games vs. the Pirates as an example) could easily explain that stretch.

edabbs44
08-22-2010, 02:07 PM
Lets look at his last 9 starts of last year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=baileho02&t=p&year=2009&share=1.80#29-37-sum:pitching_gamelogs

6-3, 1.70 ERA, 58.1 IP, 53 K, 24BB, 2 HR, .243 OBA

He was as close to dominating down the stretch last year as Cincinnati has ever had. I'd challenge anyone to find a stretch where one of our starting pitchers has looked that impressive. I'd say maybe Cueto this year; and people aren't calling him overrated despite the way he got hit last night.



Check out Arroyo down the stretch last year.

PuffyPig
08-22-2010, 02:11 PM
There are few pitchers that come out of the shoot being TOR starters.

Look at Cliff Lee (30 years old). How about Cris Carpenter (29)?

Or how about:

Glavine (25)
Wainwright (26, though it could be argued his first TOR was last year, at age 28)
Cain (25)
Josh Johnson (25)
Randy Johnson (27, though he was 29 when he had his first TOR year)
Santana (25)
Jimenez (25)

Homer Bailey is 24, with TOR potential stuff. Give him time to realize it.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:14 PM
Past performance is not a perfect predictor of future results, it's a starting point. And when you combine Bailey's past performance with his age and scouting assessments, there is great potential there. I don't know of anybody who is asserting with certitude that Homer is going to be a #1 or #2 guy and certainly not currently one. But it's a reasonable possibility in the future.

Would you mind citing some examples of the claims against which you're arguing? I suspect it's a bit of a strawman -- certainly from the perspective of the general understanding. As for his stuff, 95 mph heat and a hammer curve aren't exactly BOR material. Whether or not he can consistently get TOR results with that stuff is a different question.

95 and straight as an arrow doesn't necessarily equate to TOR, movement especially late movement is a much better indicator of stuff.

Not sure what you want me to cite please explain? I though I had laid it out there pretty clearly.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:22 PM
Are you seeing Stud OF from Bruce?

Yes and I have made a solid argument for it which I am not gonna rehash in this thread.

PuffyPig
08-22-2010, 02:22 PM
Even then his H/9 and K/9 (and his BB/9) were suggesting his results weren't a result of overpowering stuff, only the ERA is a great number. Defense and poor opposition (4 games vs. the Pirates as an example) could easily explain that stretch.

53 K's in 58.1 innings is pretty good.

In the NL this year, the only starters with a better K -rate are

Strasberg
Gallardo
Lincecum
Norris
Sanchez
Kershaw
Latos
Johnson
Nolasco
Dempster
Gorzelanny
Hansen
Jimenez

Most of trhe pitchers we consider true TOR starters are below that.

He K'd quite a few and gave up minimal HR's.

jojo
08-22-2010, 02:25 PM
95 and straight as an arrow doesn't necessarily equate to TOR, movement especially late movement is a much better indicator of stuff.

Not sure what you want me to cite please explain? I though I had laid it out there pretty clearly.

Ya. The straight as an arrow part doesn't help.

But Homer has a good shot at being a nice starter.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:26 PM
53 K's in 58.1 innings is pretty good.

In the NL this year, the only starters with a better K -rate are

Strasberg
Gallardo
Lincecum
Norris
Sanchez
Kershaw
Latos
Johnson
Nolasco
Dempster
Gorzelanny
Hansen
Jimenez

Most of trhe pitchers we consider true TOR starters are below that.

He K'd quite a few and gave up minimal HR's.

Looks like alot of TOR guys there.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:28 PM
Ya. The straight as an arrow part doesn't help.

But Homer has a good shot at being a nice starter.

I think he can maybe be a #3 but IMO he clearly doesn't have #1 or #2 stuff. But again I'm not positive of that which is why I am asking. Even guys who aren't there yet show something in their peripherals to suggest they have it in them.

jojo
08-22-2010, 02:33 PM
I think he can maybe be a #3 but IMO he clearly doesn't have #1 or #2 stuff. But again I'm not positive of that which is why I am asking. Even guys who aren't there yet show something in their peripherals to suggest they have it in them.

I don't get hung up on #1 or #4 labels.

He's got plus velocity and a plus curve. If he develops consistent command, he'll be a guy that could slide into anyone's rotation.

RedsManRick
08-22-2010, 02:44 PM
95 and straight as an arrow doesn't necessarily equate to TOR, movement especially late movement is a much better indicator of stuff.

Not sure what you want me to cite please explain? I though I had laid it out there pretty clearly.


After reading the thread about who to start assuming the Reds make the playoffs and seeing quite a few people suggesting Homer at the top or near it I just couldn't believe what I was hearing

Maybe I'm reading the wrong thread(s), but I don't recall "quite a few people" suggesting he's a TOR guy. Most I've seen suggest that he's a 3 or a 4. I was hoping you could point out those examples of people claiming he's a top of the rotation guy.

But more to the point, how does a few people claiming something mean that he's overrated? The term overrated suggests a general consensus, or at least a commonly held opinion. I just don't see that. Maybe a few people overrate him -- but generally people seem to have a pretty realistic picture.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:47 PM
I don't get hung up on #1 or #4 labels.

He's got plus velocity and a plus curve. If he develops consistent command, he'll be a guy that could slide into anyone's rotation.

So you think his command (perhaps even control) is the reason his H/9 aren't yet where one would like to see for a TOR arm? I could maybe buy that as a potential answer.

I'd like to see a few scouting reports that suggest his pitches are plus in movement. Or some pitchfx data to back it up.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:49 PM
Maybe I'm reading the wrong thread(s), but I don't recall "quite a few people" suggesting he's a TOR guy. Most I've seen suggest that he's a 3 or a 4. I was hoping you could point out those examples of people claiming he's a top of the rotation guy.

But more to the point, how does a few people claiming something mean that he's overrated? The term overrated suggests a general consensus, or at least a commonly held opinion. I just don't see that. Maybe a few people overrate him -- but generally people seem to have a pretty realistic picture.

Fair enough let's put it to the test.

jojo
08-22-2010, 02:52 PM
So you think his command (perhaps even control) is the reason his H/9 aren't yet where one would like to see for a TOR arm? I could maybe buy that as a potential answer.

I'd like to see a few scouting reports that suggest his pitches are plus in movement. Or some pitchfx data to back it up.

I think over the last two seasons we're seeing a guy that can generally throw strikes. I think he mostly gets hammered when he's got poor location.

PuffyPig
08-22-2010, 02:52 PM
Looks like alot of TOR guys there.

And lot of TOR starters who aren't, including Wainwright, Carpenter, Santana and Halladay.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 02:54 PM
Does Homer have top of the rotation stuff? #1 or #2 starter type stuff in any rotation? (This was my post for the seperate poll but it was merged).

Brutus
08-22-2010, 02:59 PM
I voted "not sure." Personally, I'm not sure I see TOR stuff in him. However, I recognize an awful lot of hitters have commented on his stuff, and since they're the ones that have to face it, I take into consideration it must be better than it looks.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 03:04 PM
I voted "not sure." Personally, I'm not sure I see TOR stuff in him. However, I recognize an awful lot of hitters have commented on his stuff, and since they're the ones that have to face it, I take into consideration it must be better than it looks.

Someone said Uggla said something, never heard that. I do recall Pujols suggesting it which would normally have some sway with me but Albert didn't go into specifics and I assumed that because Homer possesses the one pitch Albert has problems with (the splitty) and as I have stated it's a good pitch for him then not so sure he wasn't commenting specifically about the one pitch, or being swayed largely by that one pitch.

RedsManRick
08-22-2010, 03:04 PM
Fair enough let's put it to the test.

I think you are conflating stuff and performance. To me, they're different things. Stuff is ability, the pitcher's tools. Homer has not performed like a TOR guy , no doubt -- as the stats you posted point out. However, I think he has the stuff to do so. He just hasn't quite figured out how to use his stuff as effectively as he could.

A good example of this, from the other side of the coin, is Cliff Lee. His stuff is good, but not great. If you were watching him throw a bullpen, you wouldn't think "that guy has TOR stuff." However, his control is excellent and he's a GREAT pitcher -- from the perspective of selection, changing speeds, etc. That results in a TOR performer. Stuff is just a part of that.

nate
08-22-2010, 03:11 PM
I think Homer's could be heading in the right direction towards being a useful starting pitcher. I'm still skeptical of the Reds handling of him and their ability to "fix" what they screwed up but he's pitched well enough to continue giving him opportunities.

Lo and behold:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/8362_P_season_full_1_20100821.png

A good upward trend. Will he be the K-machine he was in the minors?

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/8362_P_season_full_2_20100821.png

Perhaps even more encouraging. Hopefully, these two things are contagious amongst the Reds starters.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/8362_P_season_full_4_20100821.png

Another good sign.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/8362_P_season_full_9_20100821.png

So, he's traded some groundballs for flyballs but he's also reduced the number of line drives.

I think the best we can say about Homer at this point is he's a work in progress that's interesting enough to keep working on. I'm not big on "TOR," "MOR" or "BOR" as those are largely relative labels that have no meaning. As long as these trends continue in the direction they're going, Homer can be a valuable member of the Reds pitching staff. AND...maybe most importantly, relatively inexpensive.

OR, he can be a valuable trading chip in the offseason.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 03:12 PM
Your poll seems to conflate the ideas of having TOR stuff and being TOR effective. Your initial post is laser focused on performance, not stuff. To me, they're different things. Homer has not performed like a TOR guy and may never. But I think he has the stuff to do so.

My initial post is focused on his stuff, my reasoning for doubting his stuff in large part is his performance. Had I said that a part of my thinking was what I see with my eyes I probably would have been told to get glasses. Does he have the stuff? I don't see it or the results of it.

RedsManRick
08-22-2010, 03:24 PM
My initial post is focused on his stuff, my reasoning for doubting his stuff in large part is his performance. Had I said that a part of my thinking was what I see with my eyes I probably would have been told to get glasses. Does he have the stuff? I don't see it or the results of it.

Fair enough. So long as the judgement is on the quality of his pitches, not solely on the results he's gotten, I'm happy to agree to disagree. Even if that stuff isn't TOR, it's certainly better than #4 quality. Whether or not he ever figures out to how to pitch better than as a 3/4 type guy remains to be seen.

Mario-Rijo
08-22-2010, 03:34 PM
I think you are conflating stuff and performance. To me, they're different things. Stuff is ability, the pitcher's tools. Homer has not performed like a TOR guy , no doubt -- as the stats you posted point out. However, I think he has the stuff to do so. He just hasn't quite figured out how to use his stuff as effectively as he could.

A good example of this, from the other side of the coin, is Cliff Lee. His stuff is good, but not great. If you were watching him throw a bullpen, you wouldn't think "that guy has TOR stuff." However, his control is excellent and he's a GREAT pitcher -- from the perspective of selection, changing speeds, etc. That results in a TOR performer. Stuff is just a part of that.

Lee is an interesting comp (if you are indeed comparing them, not sure) as he wouldn't have been confused with a TOR starter either before he fixed his control. And like Homer doesn't miss a ton of bats, and his H/9 (without looking) were probably not all that special either.

So if I am reading everyone correctly he needs to work on some things yet to be a TOR guy and conceivably what he needs to work on mainly is his control and/or command. Given Lee as an example of that I could maybe buy that argument. I hope that is the case because I don't think his fastball or curveball are as good as people like to think they are.

I voted Not sure in the poll but just to clarify that, I don't see it but I'm willing to admit I don't have enough info to say that with confidence.

The Operator
09-24-2010, 09:08 PM
I have a random observation I want to drop in about Homer.

If any of you are watching NYY-BOS right now on MLB Network, pay close attention to Josh Beckett's wind up and delivery. I'm telling you, Homer has copied Josh Beckett's mechanics.

Watch the leg kick, the double pump in the glove, the drive home... Homer does everything almost the exact same way.

Not that any of this is important, but it definitely caught my eye. There are definitely worse guys to try and emulate.

LoganBuck
09-24-2010, 10:39 PM
I have a random observation I want to drop in about Homer.

If any of you are watching NYY-BOS right now on MLB Network, pay close attention to Josh Beckett's wind up and delivery. I'm telling you, Homer has copied Josh Beckett's mechanics.

Watch the leg kick, the double pump in the glove, the drive home... Homer does everything almost the exact same way.

Not that any of this is important, but it definitely caught my eye. There are definitely worse guys to try and emulate.

Homer has had that for a couple years. IIRC the Reds and Red Sox had an interleague game last year or the year before. Beckett versus Homer, FSN had a split screen of their deliveries. They were very similar, at that point Homer was just plain terrible though.

The Operator
09-24-2010, 11:07 PM
Hmm, guess I'm a bit behind on that then. At least I'm not the only one who saw it! :cool:

The Operator
09-24-2010, 11:15 PM
Bronson just tried to go deep. Petco Park say "NOT SO FAST!"

1 down, BP up.

Brutus
09-24-2010, 11:24 PM
Bronson just tried to go deep. Petco Park say "NOT SO FAST!"

1 down, BP up.

lol this must be the Redszone, game thread version of 'gender confused.'

The Operator
09-24-2010, 11:55 PM
lol this must be the Redszone, game thread version of 'gender confused.'Whoops... that's what multiple tabs will do for ya. :laugh:

dougdirt
09-25-2010, 12:34 AM
Hmm, guess I'm a bit behind on that then. At least I'm not the only one who saw it! :cool:

Bailey has been compared to Beckett since he was in High School. That comp isn't likely to go away soon. They have similar stuff and nearly identical mechanics.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2010, 12:10 AM
Homer Bailey finished the 2010 season with an 8.26 K/9 and a 3.30 BB/9. Both are solid numbers. I said this in another thread - based on his peripherals, I think Homer Bailey is a candidate for a breakout season in 2010. I'm not saying he'll develop into an ace but a solid No. 2 is a strong possibility, IMO.

_Sir_Charles_
10-03-2010, 04:36 PM
I thought this was the year for his breakout (obviously by my sig), but the injury derailed the possibility. Give him consistent starts...he's going to deliver.

RedsManRick
10-03-2010, 05:17 PM
Season IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP
2007 45.1 5.6 5.6 0.6 .286 5.76 4.92 5.59
2008 36.1 4.5 4.2 2.0 .376 7.93 6.41 5.16
2009 113.1 6.8 4.1 1.0 .306 4.53 4.41 4.58
2010 109.0 8.3 3.3 0.9 .321 4.46 3.74 3.91

Looking at his peripherals, I think it's hard to argue he did anything but take a nice step forward this year. All he would need to do is pitch the exact same way and have an ERA closer to his FIP for us to say he broke out next year.

dougdirt
10-03-2010, 05:44 PM
Homer since coming off the DL in August:


GS IP H BB SO HR ERA BA OBP SLG OPS K/9 BB/9 K/BB
10 58.1 55 19 59 4 3.55 .250 .310 .377 .687 9.1 2.9 3.1

Ron Madden
10-03-2010, 05:48 PM
Homer since coming off the DL in August:


GS IP H BB SO HR ERA BA OBP SLG OPS K/9 BB/9 K/BB
10 58.1 55 19 59 4 3.55 .250 .310 .377 .687 9.1 2.9 3.1


Lookin' good. :thumbup: Let's hope Homer has turned the corner.