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View Full Version : re-signing Arroyo = no brainer



The Snow Chief
08-22-2010, 06:32 PM
I see people assuming that we will not re-sign Arroyo. I don't see how it is even a question. Where can you get a veteran pitcher as good as Arroyo for $9M with only a one-year contract? You can't. The Reds must pay Arroyo $2M if they do not pick up his $11M option. Thus, the decision is to either pay Arroyou an additional $9M or watch him walk.

I realize that the Reds have quality depth in starting pitching. Nevertheless, it is very young and having a veteran like Arroyo will be helpful IMO. In addition, you can pick up the option and then maybe flip him to another team who is much more in need of quality starting pitching.

I see no utility in declining to exercise Bronson's option for 2011.

Farnsie
08-22-2010, 07:22 PM
Hear, Hear.

arkimadee
08-22-2010, 08:28 PM
No way Bronson is not a red next season

takealeake
08-22-2010, 09:49 PM
If we can make the playoffs THIS season, it will set a lot of things in motion for next year I bet. Fans will start buying season ticket packages in droves. In turn, management will be more willing to put more investment into the team and doing things like this. Just getting Harang off the books will be a big boost to the salary, even with possible raises. That's the great thing about winning that we haven't seen in YEARS. It's a two way snowball, people spend money going to the games and start believing, and management starts believing and becoming more willing to open up the checkbook the more they see the fans turn out to watch the team win.

I expect us to exercise Arroyo's option, and expect us to possibly add another impact player, like a LF'er or such, through a trade or free agent signing.

Vottomatic
08-22-2010, 10:05 PM
Reds have an option on Arroyo next year, so it's only a question of if they buy him out at $2M, pick up the option, or trade him. It's extending him that's the question.

I would really like them to extend him. BA = Jamie Moyer. He just gets better with age and has a rubber arm. I would love to see him finish his career a Red.

skywalker
08-22-2010, 10:06 PM
KEEP HIM

arkimadee
08-22-2010, 10:10 PM
If my calculations are right, Bronson has 8 starts left this season.. He he has 14 wins. There is an outside chance he wins 20 games if he wins 6 of his last 8 starts. 4 of 8 wins gives him 18. 2 of 8 gives him 16.. Either way he is gonna have a hell of a season. He means to the Reds more than everyone thinks.

CrosleyField
08-22-2010, 11:28 PM
He is a keeper.

bshall2105
08-22-2010, 11:35 PM
I agree with picking up his option for next year, but after that I think he is expendable. He's going to want some pretty big money, money that needs to be going to are young, core players. We have so much depth in our rotation that life without Bronson will be O.K.

Reds360
08-22-2010, 11:37 PM
I remember reading that Arroyo's option was increased to 13 mil next year
because of an incentive that kicked in.

IP i think, not sure.

A little high at 13 mil but i would pick up the option.

Krawhitham
08-23-2010, 12:48 AM
You have to pick up Arroyo's option, but who do they trade for an outfield bat

With Arroyo you have 7 starters, do you move 2 starters or do you have one in the bullpen next season in case someone gets hurt or for 2013 after Arroyo walks. I would assume the one in the pen will not be too happy about it. We should have another starter ready by 2013

Homer
Leake
Wood
Chapman
Cueto
Volquez

I vote 1st Volquez & Homer 2nd, nothing against Homer I just like the others better. It was real close between Leake and Homer but Leake is 2 years younger and not as close to arbitration

bshall2105
08-23-2010, 12:52 AM
You have to pick up Arroyo's option, but who do they trade for an outfield bat

With Arroyo you have 7 starters, do you move 2 starters or do you have one in the bullpen next season in case someone gets hurt or for 2013 after Arroyo walks. I would assume the one in the pen will not be too happy about it. We should have another starter ready by 2013

Homer
Leake
Wood
Chapman
Cueto
Volquez

I vote 1st Volquez & Homer 2nd, nothing against Homer I just like the others better. It was real close between Leake and Homer but Leake is 2 years younger and not as close to arbitration

I don't think you trade any of our starters for an outfield bat. We have our outfield of the future in place right now. I also don't want to risk trading away starting pitching depth because of how often injured starters are. If we could only go five deep this year, we would have been in trouble losing Harang and Bailey for extended periods of time.

JKam
08-23-2010, 01:41 AM
I also don't want to risk trading away starting pitching depth because of how often injured starters are.

That's so true. Usually you need at least 7 starters to make it through a season. Just look at the Reds this year: Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Leclure, Maloney, Wood and Volquez. And the Reds have needed all 9.

The only question is who do stash in AAA? Leake and Wood probably perform too well to be left in AAA next year. You could probably keep Leclure and Maloney in AAA if they still have options. Harang is likely done as a Red. Still who is the odd man out of Bailey, Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Wood and Volquez? That's a real tough call. Having Chapman in reserve is a bonus.

Orodle
08-23-2010, 02:29 AM
unless your gunna get something better with that money then you might as well keep him for the last option season.

Caveman Techie
08-23-2010, 08:41 AM
Yeah, thats the only way I see the Reds not picking up the option on Arroyo. If they put that money towards a TOR free agent pitcher. Outside of that happening though, Arroyo will be wearing Red next year.

scott91575
08-23-2010, 08:50 AM
Arroyo has up to a $2 million escalator on his option that is based on innings pitched in the previous years.

This was posted on this site a while ago...


Signed 2-year EXTENSION worth $25M thru 2010 season- + as part of the extension, his 2008 salary is increase to $6.45M in 2008 via a $2.5M signing bonus- + as part of the extension, he agrees to eliminate clause in previous deal that allowed him to earn salary escalators for 2008 via IP in 2007 and performance bonuses during 2008 season- + he receives salaries of $9.5M in 2009 and $11M in 2010- + the deal includes a team option for 2011 worth $11M or a $2M buyout- + the value of the option can rise up to $13M based on innings pitched in previous years- + 2005 salary: $1.85M (+ $75K in performance bonuses)


and his salary on Baseball Reference says the same thing.

I don't know the exact number of innings, but you can bet he meets much if not all of the escalators. So it's probably near an additional $11 million over his buyout for next year.

The next question is will he be a type A free agent (which he projects to be)? If he is, and then has an off year he could drop to a type B and cost the team a first rounder.

Just some food for thought.

Krawhitham
08-23-2010, 01:53 PM
I don't think you trade any of our starters for an outfield bat.

Whatever two you alienate by sending to the pen you can be sure they will not resign when the time comes

bshall2105
08-23-2010, 04:59 PM
Whatever two you alienate by sending to the pen you can be sure they will not resign when the time comes

You're not alientating anybody. By the end of the year there are so many injuries, suspensions, family issues, that we are going to want at least decent starters to fill in the rotation.

KOBasinger
08-23-2010, 07:29 PM
I hope we keep him. All of our up and coming pitchers are still young and a vet will be needed. He has probably been our most consistent pitcher over the past 2 years. I had my doubts about Bronson before that but now I support him.

mound_patrol
08-23-2010, 07:55 PM
I dont think keeping Arroyo for next year is a no brainer. If we let Arroyo go we'd have a rotation of Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Bailey, and Leake with Maloney and Chapman in AAA. That's a talented rotation but you would be without a veteran arm. So for me Arroyo at 11 million plus is not a no brainer. It's definitely a tough decision for Walt and one I wouldnt want to make.

GIDP
08-23-2010, 08:08 PM
You simply cant strike out so few, walk so many, and continue to think so many balls put in play are going to continue turning into outs.

Foggs career numbers
3.1 bb/9
4.9 k/9
10.1 h/9

Arroyos 2010
2.8 bb/9
4.7 k/9
7.7 h/9

Basically the difference is Arroyo gives up less hits. Now why does he give up less hits? BABIP is .244 which is silly low. Foggs career is .299 which is completely normal.

Arroyo is a scary scary pitcher, and resigning him could easily come back to bite the reds in the butt considering hes going to want a good chunk of change like he said and that the numbers say hes getting unrealistic results.

scott91575
08-23-2010, 08:12 PM
You simply cant strike out so few, walk so many, and continue to think so many balls put in play are going to continue turning into outs.

Foggs career numbers
3.1 bb/9
4.9 k/9
10.1 h/9

Arroyos 2010
2.8 bb/9
4.7 k/9
7.7 h/9

Basically the difference is Arroyo gives up less hits. Now why does he give up less hits? BABIP is .244 which is silly low. Foggs career is .299 which is completely normal.

Arroyo is a scary scary pitcher, and resigning him could easily come back to bite the reds in the butt considering hes going to want a good chunk of change like he said and that the numbers say hes getting unrealistic results.

I think most of this is about his option. As a long term contract, of course the Reds shouldn't sign him. Yet one more year is not going to handicap this team.

The question is....is he worth an extra $11 million (assuming he meets his innings escalator) and the possibly of giving up a draft pick for one more year of his services.

GIDP
08-23-2010, 08:23 PM
11 for Arroyo when you have Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Volquez, and Leake likely in the rotation next year seems like a lot of cash. Factor in Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, and who knows who else in the minors who probably can pitch decently in the majors some times next year I dont know if I would consider Arroyo worth the 9-11 million that could be spent bringing in a LF or resigning any of the arbitration guys.

Arroyo for cheaper sure, but he said he isnt going to do that. Too deep at SP to spend that much money on a guy with those type of numbers. His k/9 is dropping way too much for me, and living off balls in play being turned into outs 5-6% more than usual for major league baseball. Really would hate to bring him back and have him be Harang of this year.

bshall2105
08-23-2010, 09:26 PM
11 for Arroyo when you have Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Volquez, and Leake likely in the rotation next year seems like a lot of cash. Factor in Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, and who knows who else in the minors who probably can pitch decently in the majors some times next year I dont know if I would consider Arroyo worth the 9-11 million that could be spent bringing in a LF or resigning any of the arbitration guys.

Arroyo for cheaper sure, but he said he isnt going to do that. Too deep at SP to spend that much money on a guy with those type of numbers. His k/9 is dropping way too much for me, and living off balls in play being turned into outs 5-6% more than usual for major league baseball. Really would hate to bring him back and have him be Harang of this year.

Alright Harang has been a sinking ship for three years now. Bronson has proven this year that he's capable of changing the way he pitches, as he's gotten older. Harang tried doing that and he just coudn't. He may not be worth the 11 million but I think he deserves a little more credit than you're giving him.

GIDP
08-23-2010, 09:40 PM
Alright Harang has been a sinking ship for three years now. Bronson has proven this year that he's capable of changing the way he pitches, as he's gotten older. Harang tried doing that and he just coudn't. He may not be worth the 11 million but I think he deserves a little more credit than you're giving him.

What credit am I not giving him?

mound_patrol
08-23-2010, 09:43 PM
Alright Harang has been a sinking ship for three years now. Bronson has proven this year that he's capable of changing the way he pitches, as he's gotten older. Harang tried doing that and he just coudn't. He may not be worth the 11 million but I think he deserves a little more credit than you're giving him.

GIDP has brought up some great points in that Arroyo has become a pitch to contact guy. I dont think he's discrediting Arroyo just simply saying his numbers suggest a correction at some point and that 11 million is too much for Arroyo when you have other options.

bshall2105
08-23-2010, 10:14 PM
What credit am I not giving him?

I think that you're looking at the stats a little too much and not giving him credit for changing the way he's pitched. I know his K rate has dropped significantly, but the contact that's being made is not what I consider to be solid contact. He gets so many lazy fly balls, gets the DP when neccessary, and even showed against the Dodgers that he's capable of getting the strikeout when needed. I don't think it's an accident that he was able to strikeout the two best hitters in L.A.'s lineup multiple times. I gues where you see decline in Arroyo I see growth because he knows what he's doing.

scott91575
08-23-2010, 10:22 PM
11 for Arroyo when you have Bailey, Wood, Cueto, Volquez, and Leake likely in the rotation next year seems like a lot of cash. Factor in Chapman, Maloney, Lecure, and who knows who else in the minors who probably can pitch decently in the majors some times next year I dont know if I would consider Arroyo worth the 9-11 million that could be spent bringing in a LF or resigning any of the arbitration guys.

Arroyo for cheaper sure, but he said he isnt going to do that. Too deep at SP to spend that much money on a guy with those type of numbers. His k/9 is dropping way too much for me, and living off balls in play being turned into outs 5-6% more than usual for major league baseball. Really would hate to bring him back and have him be Harang of this year.

$11 million will not buy you much. How many guys that will sign an $11 million contract will be better than Heisey? Anyone only signing a 1 year deal will have 1 foot in the ground, and any longer deal at that $11 million is not buying you much (I would rather just go with Heisey). That is the beauty of Arroyo. It's a one year deal.

The guys you are looking at next year in the outfield....

Catalanotto - he is done
Crawford - Gonna take a hell of lot more than $11 million, and very long term. That is gonna be Boston, NY, LA type money there, because that is who the Reds will be competing with.
Coco Crisp - Again, I'd rather go with Heisey
Cuddyer - Maybe. Perhaps he could pull out another 2009. Yet he will be looking for more than a 1 year deal, and the overall contract will be more than $11 million.
DeJesus - Maybe, but KC still has a reasonable team option on him
Jody Gerut - I wouldn't even pay him to shine the players shoes.
Jose Guillen - getting old and fading fast
Willie Harris - Joke
Brad Hawpe - I have no idea what to think with him. Assuming the Rockies don't pick up his $10 million option (I doubt they re up at that number), he would be someone worth looking at. This year destroyed his value. Might be able to take a shot at him, but he could easily be Jonny Gomes part 2.
Austin Kearns - Again, just give me Heisey
Jason Kubel - Team option probably picked up
Magglio Ordonez - The old guy. Risky after an ankle injury, but could pay off on a one year deal. Don't know many people looking to sign a 37 year old long term. He could fit the bill, but his ankle could also shatter. he is starting to fall apart.
Marcus Thames - Better than Gomes, but I am not sure he will be better than Heisey. Maybe.
Jayson Werth - In my dreams. That is going to be a ridiculous contract.

So essentially you want to let Arroyo go for the shot at Cuddyer, Hawpe, Ordonez, or Thames.

As for the arbitration guys, that $11 million is not going to make or break one of their signings. If the Reds want to extend them they will, and it will be done to fit within the 2013+ budget, not next year. This team is built to win now, no need to skimp next year to shoe it away for a rainy day. So, it's down to if you want Arroyo for a year, or the likes of Cuddyer, Hawpe, Ordonez, or Thames over Heisey. If I missed someone, I apologize.

Anyway, with only two guys in next years rotation that have pitched for a full season in the majors, one of them coming of Tommy John, and no one who has pitched more than 200 major league innings in a season, I think Arroyo is more valuable then you are giving him credit. Especially since it's only for one year, you know what you are getting (vs. all the OF's that all have question marks), and will not handcuff the team on signing the young players for years to come.

I can see the Reds doing what you are saying, so it's not far fetched. Yet the OF idea is risky at that money (any more and it prevent in house signings), and not using the money at all would tick me off. Teams don't take that money and use it in future years. The owners take it and buy another yacht and a 10th Summer home.

Wow, that was longer winded than I initially planned.

scott91575
08-23-2010, 10:27 PM
GIDP has brought up some great points in that Arroyo has become a pitch to contact guy. I dont think he's discrediting Arroyo just simply saying his numbers suggest a correction at some point and that 11 million is too much for Arroyo when you have other options.

$11 million for a 1 year deal and a player at Arroyo's level right now is not that bad. You are simply not going to get anyone who is safer than him for 1 year, and more than 1 year for $11 million total and you are looking at middle of the road type players, at best.

mound_patrol
08-23-2010, 11:04 PM
$11 million for a 1 year deal and a player at Arroyo's level right now is not that bad. You are simply not going to get anyone who is safer than him for 1 year, and more than 1 year for $11 million total and you are looking at middle of the road type players, at best.

11 million isnt bad for the production Arroyo gives. And if the Reds didn't have 6 or 7 other viable options I'd be all for retaining Arroyo. But keeping Arroyo is basically a luxury for the Reds, and I'd rather they spend that money on something more pressing.

GIDP
08-23-2010, 11:09 PM
I think that you're looking at the stats a little too much and not giving him credit for changing the way he's pitched. I know his K rate has dropped significantly, but the contact that's being made is not what I consider to be solid contact. He gets so many lazy fly balls, gets the DP when neccessary, and even showed against the Dodgers that he's capable of getting the strikeout when needed. I don't think it's an accident that he was able to strikeout the two best hitters in L.A.'s lineup multiple times. I gues where you see decline in Arroyo I see growth because he knows what he's doing.

It would be 1 thing if it was in the .260-.270 BABIP range. Hes basically has one of the top 5 lowest BABIP in baseball out of pitchers with 120 innings. Only 3 have a BABIP lower than .250.

He might get weaker contact but its not repeatable, The best pitchers in baseball dont get that type of numbers. Look it up.

davereds24
08-24-2010, 12:25 AM
You really can't compare the best pitchers in baseball to Arroyo. They all have a ton of Ks and throw hard. When hitters make contact off them the ball is going to be hit harder and be more likely to fall in. When you are trying to hit 4 different breaking balls that range from 60-75mph the contact isn't going to be as solid, therefore will result in more outs.

Caveman Techie
08-24-2010, 08:53 AM
You are forgetting that Arroyo also has one of the best defenses behind him. Which plays right in to the his style of pitching. I do agree that his BABIP will more than likely go up next year, but I don't expect it to go up signifigantly. Bronson has always been a junk ball pitcher and when batters do make contact it is weaker which does help the BABIP.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 10:29 AM
if he got bad contact his LD % would be very very low.

His career BABIP is .291 and its been between .321 and .279 every year with the Reds.

It was .299 and .285 while in boston.

.244 is just beyond reason, and its not repeatable.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 11:51 AM
if he got bad contact his LD % would be very very low.

His career BABIP is .291 and its been between .321 and .279 every year with the Reds.

It was .299 and .285 while in boston.

.244 is just beyond reason, and its not repeatable.

His line drive rate is only 18.3%. That is low (league average is over 20%). Last year his line drive rate was around league average and his BABIP was .268 (BTW, not sure where you are getting your stats....fangraphs has it at .270 and Baseball Reference at .268). In other words, he has been bucking your trend for 59 starts. Over the last two seasons his BABIP has been about 30 points lower you would expect from his line drive rate, but defense is huge for him. With the improvements to the Reds defense his BABIP dropped about 30-40 points below about what would be expected, and has done it for almost 60 starts now.

In the end, do you really want to trust 80% of the rotation to Volquez and 3 guys that have never pitched for a full season? Huge, huge risk. Arroyo will at least go out, eat innings, and in the end be what he has been his entire career, an above average pitcher. With no long term commitment and so many question marks on a very young staff it most likely the safest play.

A year like 2009 would not be expecting too much.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 12:18 PM
Edinson Volquez LD% is 16%.

His BABIP is .365

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=2&season=2010&month=0

Sample size matters of course, travis woods is .211. They basically cancel each others out.

Cueto is .289
Leake .311

Those are the only other 2 really with enough innings.

Basically you want to suggest that Arroyo gets so much weaker contact that it makes up for .040 and .070 points in babip.

http://www.fangraphs.com/careerleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=1&min=1000

That basically shows its impossible to recreate a BABIP that low, especially as a pitcher whos career BABIP is .291.

Sorry I dont want to beat this into the ground because I know you guys dont see it my way, and I believe in what the stats tell me more than majority of posters around here. I simply dont believe Arroyo can continue to pitch the way he does and be a pitcher worth 11 million. He would have to recreate the BABIP to do it. If it goes back in the .260-.270 range we are looking at a mid 4 ERA pitcher and thats not worth the risk to me.

Reds team BABIP is .294. So basically Arroyo gets 5% more hits turned into outs despite basically the same D.

davereds24
08-24-2010, 01:00 PM
Actually if you look at Arroyo's numbers his ERA is significantly higher this year than it should be. Even if his BABIP were to increase next year his ERA should not approach the mid 4s, more like right around 4.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 01:10 PM
What numbers are you talking about. What numbers suggest his ERA should be lower.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 01:17 PM
His xFIP this year is around 4.80. Lets say his BABIP stays below .270 his hits increase by 2.5% instead of giving him a 8.7 h/9. Strike out rates dropping, BB % raising, hit rates dont drop when those 2 things drop unless something is fishy. His BABIP isnt sustainable. He will see raise in ERA unless he strikes out more next season. Given that his K% has dropped every by 2.5 since 2008 while his BB% has gone up tells me hes losing his control and just less balls are finding holes than normal. No way he can possibly pitch so perfect that balls go to defenders 76% of the time, when basically only 3 other pitchers in baseball do it at the same rate. If it was repeatable guys would repeat it, and in this day an era it just doesnt happen.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 02:20 PM
FIP is a horrible stat for pitchers that put the ball in play. It's well known it's just not useful for those types of pitchers. Just look at his career numbers. xFIP and FIP are always inflated for him, and that same trend happens for non power pitchers. Plus there is no correction for ballpark so it's a poor comparative stat too. It's just an all around bad stat for a certain style of pitchers. I could go on a whole rant, but it's one of the more questionable Sabermetric stats.

As I have said, .270 is not unreasonable, and recently his BABIP has been in that area.

2009 is more reasonable. .270 BABIP, high 3 ERA, WHIP 1.2-1.3. Those are not unreasonable expectations, and as we all know he is essentially the most durable pitcher in MLB. For only one year, $11 million is not bad. No offense, but you are acting like they are going to sign him to a long term deal. He is worth about $8,000,000 a year. Overpaying by $3 million for essentially a 1 year deal is not a big deal.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 04:17 PM
His ERA is already in the high 3s. It was in the high 3s last year when he walked less and struck out more.

If you think his K and walk rates are going to improve that one thing but you are basically just saying he should be better even with a correction in BABIP.

I dont really understand how you can say high 3 ERA if you agree his BABIP isn't going to be in the .240s again.

The whole time I have been posting I've basically been saying its hard to trust a guy to continue to be a good pitcher when hte numbers say different. I dont think hes going to be brutal next year even with his bad numbers, I just cant bring myself to say a guy who at best has an ERA in the 4s and easily could be in the high 4s if his walk and K numbers continue to drop is worth 11 million dollars. 6 or 7? sure but paying him 11 million with a good chance of it going to 13 seems like a waste of limited resources this team has to already work with.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 06:51 PM
His ERA is already in the high 3s. It was in the high 3s last year when he walked less and struck out more.

If you think his K and walk rates are going to improve that one thing but you are basically just saying he should be better even with a correction in BABIP.

I dont really understand how you can say high 3 ERA if you agree his BABIP isn't going to be in the .240s again.

Look to 2009 and you will have your answer.

His SO/Walk ratio has been climbing this year. If you want to find an anomaly it was his SO/Walk ratio earlier this year. He was more wild at the start of the year. Even though he was getting lucky on the BABIP front, his non batted ball stats offset that luckiness (which is actually shown in his poor FIP).

Overall, his 2009 stats are more representative of what he can provide. A BABIP around .270's, a WHIP in the 1.2-1.3 range, and a high 3 ERA. Can he do worse? Sure. Yet 60 starts does stop being just lucky, so thinking his BABIP can be around .270 and he can repeat his 2009 stats is not a stretch.

In the end the only reason they should get rid of Arroyo is if his signing causes Hernandez's option to not be picked up. Other than that, the $11 million is not going to get much in the FA market, and I don't feel as comfortable as you having an entirely young starting staff with not one proven pitcher with over 200 innings in a season in the majors. More bullpen strain, and lots of risk.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 07:31 PM
Im not talking just about FA. Im talking about Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Hanigan also.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 07:50 PM
Im not talking just about FA. Im talking about Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Hanigan also.

Bailey and Hanigan are not arbitration eligible until 2012.

With Harang coming off the books, Votto will essentially take over that money. I ran through it all, and if Arroyo's option is picked up the team should be able to stay intact for just under $80 million. Perhaps they don't want to go that high, and if they don't then you are correct and all of this is moot. They simply cannot afford him because they are not going to cut the young guys (IMO iit won't have anything to do with Arroyo's performance though, strictly money). Yet if they can go to that number, I think picking up Arroyo's option is the right call.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 07:55 PM
I didnt say they were.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 07:56 PM
I didnt say they were.

Then why did you mention them? Arroyo's option has no bearing on their salary. Hanigan is not going to get a long term deal, and I doubt they are planning on signing Bailey until he gets to arbitration.

GIDP
08-24-2010, 09:11 PM
I mentioned them because they are becoming arb elidgeble soon. Meaning 11 million dollars can go a long way not just next season. They dont lose the 11 million if they dont spend it all next year.

11 million for a pitcher who is probably at best worth 7 million next year if he continues to see a low BABIP despite his history and baseball history when you have 8 other starters to pick from seems like a waste of money. They can spend 11 million in a ton of other ways.

Cueto
Wood
Leake
Bailey
Volquez
Chapman
Lecure
Maloney

Not all of those guys are equal of course but thats a lot of starting pitching and at least 5 who are worthy of major league starting rotation spots. I just dont see the need to make Arroyo the highest paid player on the Reds, which unless his IP bonus is like 300 innings there is a good chance he turns into 13 million dollars.

malcontent
08-24-2010, 09:30 PM
I think that you're looking at the stats a little too much and not giving him credit for changing the way he's pitched. I know his K rate has dropped significantly, but the contact that's being made is not what I consider to be solid contact. He gets so many lazy fly balls, gets the DP when neccessary, and even showed against the Dodgers that he's capable of getting the strikeout when needed. I don't think it's an accident that he was able to strikeout the two best hitters in L.A.'s lineup multiple times. I gues where you see decline in Arroyo I see growth because he knows what he's doing.
I couldn't agree more. I absolutely think that Arroyo's the glue to this rotation. Not re-signing him would prove disastrous to the team's shot in 2011, IMO.

What's more, I think he can keep doing this for several more years. He's smart as hell and keeps in great shape.

scott91575
08-24-2010, 11:51 PM
I mentioned them because they are becoming arb elidgeble soon. Meaning 11 million dollars can go a long way not just next season. They dont lose the 11 million if they dont spend it all next year.

11 million for a pitcher who is probably at best worth 7 million next year if he continues to see a low BABIP despite his history and baseball history when you have 8 other starters to pick from seems like a waste of money. They can spend 11 million in a ton of other ways.

Cueto
Wood
Leake
Bailey
Volquez
Chapman
Lecure
Maloney

Not all of those guys are equal of course but thats a lot of starting pitching and at least 5 who are worthy of major league starting rotation spots. I just dont see the need to make Arroyo the highest paid player on the Reds, which unless his IP bonus is like 300 innings there is a good chance he turns into 13 million dollars.

$11 million dollars stretched out over all those young players for the remainder of their time with the Reds is close to nothing. FTR...it's 11 because if you don't pick up his option that is $2 million you have to spend. I am using $11 million as the additional money. Either way he is going to cost the Reds $2 million.

Anyway, it's pretty simple...a team that plans on competing for a title next year will spend up to the top end of their budget. They are not going to squirrel away that money in hopes they can spend a few hundred thousand dollars extra on a few other guys contracts for the next 4 years.

What you can spend that money on is a FA next year. As I pointed out, there are not many options if any better than keeping Arroyo. The Reds are going to have a good idea where their salaries will be, and if they can afford Arroyo they should keep him. It will have zero affect on the young players. Those salaries are going to lock into place, and keeping Arroyo will be based on salaries after those young players are taken into account.

Next...who on that list has actually pitched a full season in the majors, and how many of them pitched over 200 innings in the majors?

I'll help you out, 2 and 0. You actually trust Maloney, LeCure, Chapman, Bailey, Leake, Volquez, and Wood more than Arroyo? Maybe Wood, but he has only pitched for 2 months (and getting rocked right now). Arroyo has been better than Leake this year (who faded horribly down the stretch so you really have no idea which one will show up next year), and no doubt much better than LeCure, Maloney, and Volquez. Heck, he was better in the majors as a starter than Chapman as a starter in AAA.

Essentially what you are saying is you want a starting staff with 1 starter you actually know what you are getting, and just throwing caution to the wind so you can pay the young players an extra $200,000 for the next 4 years.

As stated multiple times, it's really simple. If the Reds can fit Arroyo in the budget, they should keep him for 1 more year. It's not preventing anyone from being signed in the future, and you get a proven pitcher while you determine the true nature of your younger pitchers. A contending team simply cannot afford to depend on young pitchers, who have never thrown a complete year in the majors, to be 3/5's of your rotation (with 1 other guying coming off Tommy John, has a 6+ ERA right now, and only pitched 1 full year).

edit: Oh, and you really want the Reds to sit on $11 million for a year and not spend it on a contending team? Really? Plus, teams don't just push money ahead. It goes into overall money, and if any is left, guess what, PROFIT TIME! That money is gone. If will not be used the following year. The budget for the following year will be based on what they think they will make the next year (with probably an acceptable profit margin baked in....that depends on ownership), not by what they saved the previous year. If that was ever true, a team like the Mariners could spend $200 million the next few years. They have racked up profits for the last 10 years. Yet their salary has not jumped in leaps thanks to past profits. Same thing with the Marlins, Nationals, and Padres.

GIDP
08-25-2010, 01:21 AM
Like I said Arroyo I easily see Arroyo being a 4+ era pitcher next year, and make a strong case for him being 4.50+. Spending that much money on him is a bad investment. He isnt going to get better most like and hes giving us a 3.90 ERA as it is. Which is fine but its also aided by what is basically impossible to reproduce.

Either way hes not worth the money, even with the luck. Would I take him back? yes, but Im not going to lose sleep or care if they dont.

mckbearcat48
08-26-2010, 07:07 PM
As a Cardinal fan, the one starter in your rotation I don't like facing is Arroyo. He comes to play every time out. If you don't want him, I'm sure that other teams would come calling in a heartbeat. The Reds have depth in the rotation (which is huge), and Arroyo is a big part of that. If he's your ace, you're in trouble...but middle to back end of the rotation, he's solid. I would love to see you guys get rid of him....;)

GIDP
08-26-2010, 07:23 PM
Why do people say Arroyo is the Reds ace rofl.

Krawhitham
08-26-2010, 07:45 PM
Like I said Arroyo I easily see Arroyo being a 4+ era pitcher next year, and make a strong case for him being 4.50+. Spending that much money on him is a bad investment. He isnt going to get better most like and hes giving us a 3.90 ERA as it is. Which is fine but its also aided by what is basically impossible to reproduce.

Either way hes not worth the money, even with the luck. Would I take him back? yes, but Im not going to lose sleep or care if they dont.

Name me a starter with more quality starts over the last 7 seasons.

Don't worry I'll wait

Krawhitham
08-26-2010, 07:54 PM
Why do people say Arroyo is the Reds ace rofl.

Might have something to do with
Most Wins
Most quality starts
Most innings pitched
Best WHIP
Best BAA (Wood is lower but only has 10 starts)
2nd best ERA

Krawhitham
08-26-2010, 07:57 PM
Like I said Arroyo I easily see Arroyo being a 4+ era pitcher next year, and make a strong case for him being 4.50+.

You always predict Arroyo will be bad next season, maybe someday you will be correct but it has not happened yet

Vottomatic
08-26-2010, 08:13 PM
You always predict Arroyo will be bad next season, maybe someday you will be correct but it has not happened yet

I love seeing him be wrong.

takealeake
08-26-2010, 08:20 PM
$9 million more for a guy who's been a darn good starter for us. You know, if we make the playoffs this year, its about time we stop worrying about salary and expect management to pick it up and make some hay with the payroll. Make the playoffs, and make a run in it possibly, and season tickets probably double next year and we should be able to add like $10 mil in salary really. It would be a great investment.

GIDP
08-26-2010, 08:31 PM
You always predict Arroyo will be bad next season, maybe someday you will be correct but it has not happened yet

Well ive been here for 2 seasons, and never said he would have a bad season so what are you basing your information off of.

I said the trend isn't looking good and back it up with statistics why next season I'm afraid of what he could bring but ive never came out and said I expected him to have a bad year.

Wasting my time responding to trolls. darn it.

GIDP
08-26-2010, 08:34 PM
Might have something to do with
Most Wins
Most quality starts
Most innings pitched
Best WHIP
Best BAA (Wood is lower but only has 10 starts)
2nd best ERA


Basically the Reds have 2 pitchers who have pitched all year long so being first and 2nd in stuff is hard to do in a lot of those stats.

takealeake
08-26-2010, 08:35 PM
League Leaders - 2010
• Ranks 4th in NL in W (14) • Ranks 9th in NL in IP (174.1)
• Ranks 11th in NL in WHIP (1.17) • Ranks 10th in NL in W% (.667)
• Ranks 6th in NL in CG (2)

mmt1552
08-26-2010, 11:41 PM
Basically the Reds have 2 pitchers who have pitched all year long so being first and 2nd in stuff is hard to do in a lot of those stats.

That's exactly why Bronson is worth the 9 mil. He's the rock in the rotation that never gets hurt and tosses 200 quality innings. A lot of these young pitchers haven't learned to do that yet (and definitely not for a whole season).

davereds24
08-26-2010, 11:48 PM
not worth arguing with him, for some reason he seems to hate Bronson.

webbbj
08-27-2010, 12:53 AM
didnt read the whole thread. but its tough decision. ur gonna have so many capable MLB starters. but bronson is almost a guarantee on what you will get +200 innings and an ERA in the 4-5range. when you have possible starters of :

volquez
cueto
bailey
arroyo
leake
wood
lecure
maloney

its not that bad having one of these "stars" in the minors. i think leake should and would be the odd man out. he can use the innings and not hurt the MLB team in the process if he pitches bad. and lecure and maloney have never beenn there so their "feelings" shouldnt be hurt if anything its extra motivation for how hard it is to make this roster.

not to mention lets say reds are again in a pennant race they have the option to use arroyo as trade bait. but again it would be awkward to trade him in a pennatn race if the reds are conteding if he dong well.

basically they are in a lose lose situation.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 01:04 AM
That's exactly why Bronson is worth the 9 mil. He's the rock in the rotation that never gets hurt and tosses 200 quality innings. A lot of these young pitchers haven't learned to do that yet (and definitely not for a whole season).

its likely 11 after escalators and subtracting the buy out as lost cash.

And no I dont hate Bronson. I realize its easy for you guys to say that because you might not understand my reasons of being skeptical to pay a pitcher who is really only worth 7 or so million when hes at his best. I build my case and the only responses are that I hate him.

for 6 or 7 million I like him, for double that? big risk and a lot of cash.

takealeake
08-27-2010, 01:06 AM
didnt read the whole thread. but its tough decision. ur gonna have so many capable MLB starters. but bronson is almost a guarantee on what you will get +200 innings and an ERA in the 4-5range. when you have possible starters of :

volquez
cueto
bailey
arroyo
leake
wood
lecure
maloney

its not that bad having one of these "stars" in the minors. i think leake should and would be the odd man out. he can use the innings and not hurt the MLB team in the process if he pitches bad. and lecure and maloney have never beenn there so their "feelings" shouldnt be hurt if anything its extra motivation for how hard it is to make this roster.

not to mention lets say reds are again in a pennant race they have the option to use arroyo as trade bait. but again it would be awkward to trade him in a pennatn race if the reds are conteding if he dong well.

basically they are in a lose lose situation.

Don't forget Chapman. And honestly, I don't expect much from LeCure or Maloney in this franchise, they seem to be great 4A players or possible traded down the line. We have more than enough future starters, but thats the key word: future. We need someone to anchor this rotation while these guys mature.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 01:09 AM
Don't forget Chapman. And honestly, I don't expect much from LeCure or Maloney in this franchise, they seem to be great 4A players or possible traded down the line. We have more than enough future starters, but thats the key word: future. We need someone to anchor this rotation while these guys mature.

and having a guy on essentially a 1 year contract, albeit slightly high, is perfect.

takealeake
08-27-2010, 01:11 AM
its likely 11 after escalators and subtracting the buy out as lost cash.

And no I dont hate Bronson. I realize its easy for you guys to say that because you might not understand my reasons of being skeptical to pay a pitcher who is really only worth 7 or so million when hes at his best. I build my case and the only responses are that I hate him.

for 6 or 7 million I like him, for double that? big risk and a lot of cash.

We would essentially be taking the option on him next year for $9 mil, since $2 mil is sunk in the buyout whether he's here or not. Not really double that, and you're going to split hairs over $2 million difference in what you said you would give to him?? With some contracts like Harang coming off the books, even with the arbitration raises, we'll be basically equal in payroll next year with him. And as a playoff contending team now with renewed fan interest, management should be prepared to raise payroll next season.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 01:14 AM
We would essentially be taking the option on him next year for $9 mil, since $2 mil is sunk in the buyout whether he's here or not. Not really double that, and you're going to split hairs over $2 million difference in what you said you would give to him?? With some contracts like Harang coming off the books, even with the arbitration raises, we'll be basically equal in payroll next year with him. And as a playoff contending team now with renewed fan interest, management should be prepared to raise payroll next season.

FYI...Bronson has an innings pitched escalator on his 2011 option that makes it $13 million. We don't knows the exact number, but he probably will get there or it was some crazy number.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 01:19 AM
We would essentially be taking the option on him next year for $9 mil, since $2 mil is sunk in the buyout whether he's here or not. Not really double that, and you're going to split hairs over $2 million difference in what you said you would give to him?? With some contracts like Harang coming off the books, even with the arbitration raises, we'll be basically equal in payroll next year with him. And as a playoff contending team now with renewed fan interest, management should be prepared to raise payroll next season.

Because at his best hes 6 or 7 million. hes at his best right now, and I have laid out the reasons why I dont expect that to continue. If it does ok we are over paying by 6 million because his option is 11 million, goes to 13 if he reaches the innings bonus, and then subtract it since they have to pay him 2 no matter what. It ends up being basically 11 million.

If Arroyo can repeat the unrepeatable hes worth 6 or 7.

Most likely he cant. Meaning we probably pay 11 million for a 4-5 million dollar pitcher.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 01:28 AM
Because at his best hes 6 or 7 million. hes at his best right now, and I have laid out the reasons why I dont expect that to continue. If it does ok we are over paying by 6 million because his option is 11 million, goes to 13 if he reaches the innings bonus, and then subtract it since they have to pay him 2 no matter what. It ends up being basically 11 million.

If Arroyo can repeat the unrepeatable hes worth 6 or 7.

Most likely he cant. Meaning we probably pay 11 million for a 4-5 million dollar pitcher.

and like I have asked before, why do you care? What is your plan for that $11 million if the Reds don't spend it?

If they can't afford him, all of this is moot. If they can, and don't sign him, what do you want? As I explained, that money does not carry over. This is not a cell phone plan. Anything left over goes into profit.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 01:33 AM
Give him 50 million then.

webbbj
08-27-2010, 01:35 AM
i would say yes unless the money can be spent better elsewhere. i think there are bullpen needs, LF needs(maybe not a starter but a bench player) , SS (or backup) needs, backup 3b (fransico but its not like we have a lot of IF depth anyway, i guess dont forget valaika) needs. but i also dont think we just ignore these needs to sign arroyo i think it would be arroyo plus filling extra needs.


dont wanna derail thread but any chance cordero is traded in the off season?

GIDP
08-27-2010, 01:37 AM
The Reds dont have to use arroyos money in FA. They could trade for someone like Greinke maybe, who knows. I just know that paying a guy double what hes likely worth is terrible idea no matter what. Tons of ways we cant even fathom that they could spend 11 million next year.

mmt1552
08-27-2010, 01:38 AM
FYI...Bronson has an innings pitched escalator on his 2011 option that makes it $13 million. We don't knows the exact number, but he probably will get there or it was some crazy number.

oh ok, I didn't realize that. That info's good to know. Still would definitely want to keep him for that, but thats a few million more reasons to understand the other side of things.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 01:38 AM
Give him 50 million then.

Yeah, you are really helping yourself look intelligent now.

Like I said, if they can afford him. I am guessing they cannot afford $50 million.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 01:40 AM
The Reds dont have to use arroyos money in FA. They could trade for someone like Greinke maybe, who knows. I just know that paying a guy double what hes likely worth is terrible idea no matter what. Tons of ways we cant even fathom that they could spend 11 million next year.

I tried. I even spelled it out. Why sit back and save the money on a trade that won't likely happen. We know who will be free agents. I listed them. You want to save the money for guys that are not even on the trading block. Bird in the hand....

BTW...I did screw up one guy on my list....Cuddyer is a 2012 FA.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 01:46 AM
Not picking up the option doesnt mean they are just goin to write themselves a check for 11 million and laugh on the way to the bank.

We dont know how they could spend it, dont know what they can do with it.

Apparently the option is paying Arroyo 5 million more than hes worth if hes the pitcher he was this year some how getting outs on balls put in play 6% more than basically every pitcher in the game no matter how good they are, or pocketing it.

Arroyo isnt the best way to spend 11 million most likely. would it be a sin to pick it up if no other options are possible? No but I find it hard to believe they couldnt spend 11 million dollars more wisely.

you guys make it seem like I want to DFA bronson or something.

Maybe they up payroll and add Carl Crawford with that 11 million plus some.
Maybe they do somethin similar and add Werth.
Maybe they go for Tim Hudson, he might be a FA im not sure on that one.
Maybe they sign JJ Hardy

We really have no idea what they can do or anything.

takealeake
08-27-2010, 01:53 AM
Because at his best hes 6 or 7 million. hes at his best right now, and I have laid out the reasons why I dont expect that to continue. If it does ok we are over paying by 6 million because his option is 11 million, goes to 13 if he reaches the innings bonus, and then subtract it since they have to pay him 2 no matter what. It ends up being basically 11 million.

If Arroyo can repeat the unrepeatable hes worth 6 or 7.

Most likely he cant. Meaning we probably pay 11 million for a 4-5 million dollar pitcher.

I don't know what your standard is for pitching, maybe you haven't noticed, but pitching is pretty expensive so I really don't know who you're comparing him too. Outside of young pitchers still on their original deal, pitching gets expensive if you're even average. And I don't see what Arroyo's done that is unrepeatable. He has a 3.82 ERA this year, and a 3.84 ERA last year.

Personally, I'm sick of the fan haggling over salaries. We have Harang's salary off the books, we have the remnants of the Taveras mess off the books, Mike Lincoln, and salary will be going down next year. Not only that, but we're a playoff contending team now, and being 20th in salary or whatever isn't cutting it anymore. We shouldn't have to be splitting hairs over a mil or two, it's ridiculous.

webbbj
08-27-2010, 01:55 AM
i agree w/ GIDP. that money could be used in a better matter. if that option doesnt become available then go after arroyo.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 02:08 AM
Not picking up the option doesnt mean they are just goin to write themselves a check for 11 million and laugh on the way to the bank.

We dont know how they could spend it, dont know what they can do with it.

Apparently the option is paying Arroyo 5 million more than hes worth if hes the pitcher he was this year some how getting outs on balls put in play 6% more than basically every pitcher in the game no matter how good they are, or pocketing it.

Arroyo isnt the best way to spend 11 million most likely. would it be a sin to pick it up if no other options are possible? No but I find it hard to believe they couldnt spend 11 million dollars more wisely.

you guys make it seem like I want to DFA bronson or something.

Maybe they up payroll and add Carl Crawford with that 11 million plus some.
Maybe they do somethin similar and add Werth.
Maybe they go for Tim Hudson, he might be a FA im not sure on that one.
Maybe they sign JJ Hardy


Crawford and Werth. Seriously? You want to sink that money into guys that will require $15 million plus for 5 or more years? THAT is exactly what this team shouldn't do. Those guys are going to get Holliday money, if not worse (they can actually play defense). Those are handcuff salaries. Bronson's is not.

Hudson is a FA in 2013, and untouchable. Not sure where you are getting that.

JJ Hardy is a FA in 2012, and I'd rather have Janish. Hardy brings nothing. Talk about overpaying. You got the same hitter, and a better glove on the team right now for a lot less.

My god, you are complaining about Arroyo on a 1 year deal, and you want to overpay guys over a 5+ year span. That is what happens in free agency, you overpay. The Sox and the Yankees can afford that. The Reds cannot. Look at Cordero.

Finally, you actually want the team to sit on money in hopes they can do something with it instead of spending on someone you know you can get. You know what happens then? You get left out in the cold (then that does mean they write themselves a nice little check) or overpay for some other player because you have money burning a hole in your pocket. I'd rather overpay for Arroyo for the whole year.

There is only 1 free agent I would consider, and that is Magglio Ordonez. You can get him on a 1 year deal, and then pray he stays healthy. Other than that, there is nothing in free agency short term and anyone long term will be a salary albatross or just some mid level schmuck that is probably not better than any of the young guys already on the team. Any pitcher above Bronson's level will cost you as much if not more, and be a long term deal.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 02:22 AM
i agree w/ GIDP. that money could be used in a better matter. if that option doesnt become available then go after arroyo.

That option does not sit out there all year long while you try and pick someone up. You have to exercise the option before the free agency period (when his contract is up). If they do not exercise the option, he becomes a free agent. Now your option is gone, and he only wants a long term deal. You cannot negotiate with anyone on another team prior to free agency (that would be tampering), so you have no idea what you can get when you have to decide on his option.

You can't just go shopping and let Bronson sit there waiting to see if his option will be picked up.

The only thing possible is a trade, yet it's still only a brief period of time to work anything out. Plus most of that happens at the Winter meetings, which is after free agency has begun.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 10:14 AM
You think I want to give JJ Hardy 11 million dollars? lol how silly.

This discussion is getting stupid though. Apparently Arroyo is the best option out there for some people. Id be extremely happy with Carl Crawford for 15 million. He's worth more than that. Yes Id rather "over pay" guys who 5.5 WAR players instead of overpaying 1.5 WAR pitchers.

The names I listed were just names out there. I didnt know if Hudson was a FA or not I thought he signed a contract extension in the last year but couldnt remember. Take him off anyways. They are just random quick options. I dont know what they could do with the 11 million. You dont either. Spending 5 extra million on Arroyo when you dont have to is a waste of money no defending it.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 02:05 PM
You think I want to give JJ Hardy 11 million dollars? lol how silly.

This discussion is getting stupid though. Apparently Arroyo is the best option out there for some people. Id be extremely happy with Carl Crawford for 15 million. He's worth more than that. Yes Id rather "over pay" guys who 5.5 WAR players instead of overpaying 1.5 WAR pitchers.

The names I listed were just names out there. I didnt know if Hudson was a FA or not I thought he signed a contract extension in the last year but couldnt remember. Take him off anyways. They are just random quick options. I dont know what they could do with the 11 million. You dont either. Spending 5 extra million on Arroyo when you dont have to is a waste of money no defending it.

Paying JJ Hardy anything over league minimum is overpaying him. I didn't say you wanted to pay him $11 million.

No offense, but you are the one making this stupid (ok, some offense). Throwing out random names that are not even free agents, assuming Carl Crawford is going to come running to Cincinnati for $15 million (while assuming Arroyo's $11 million would make much of a dent in his overall contract...hell, Torii Hunter got a 5 year, $90 million dollar deal and you think Crawford is getting less?), and then calling Arroyo essentially a $6 million pitcher. He is worth at least $8 million, and for a one year deal even higher than that.

There is defending it, because I actually took time to come up with a cogent argument on the other options out there and what you can spend it on. Clearly you have not.

GIDP
08-27-2010, 02:23 PM
Like I said Arroyo isnt worth 11 million, especially if the Reds can spend that in other areas.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 03:22 PM
Like I said Arroyo isnt worth 11 million, especially if the Reds can spend that in other areas.

and like I have said, your only argument is this mystical other area. I have laid out that "other area" in detail. You have not. Well, except a couple of guys that are not free agents and the hope of signing Crawford for a $15 million per deal (maybe on Playstation).

Geez, at least throw out Hawpe or something.

Even then, overpaying a guy for 1 year is not a big deal. It's the long term over payments that are a killer, and that is pretty much what you are advocating.

mound_patrol
08-27-2010, 05:32 PM
and like I have said, your only argument is this mystical other area. I have laid out that "other area" in detail. You have not. Well, except a couple of guys that are not free agents and the hope of signing Crawford for a $15 million per deal (maybe on Playstation).

Geez, at least throw out Hawpe or something.

Even then, overpaying a guy for 1 year is not a big deal. It's the long term over payments that are a killer, and that is pretty much what you are advocating.

He isnt throwing out a mythincal stat. BABIP is real and has some merit. GIDP has never once said Arroyo sucks. All he has said is his numbers suggest Arroyo takes a step back and he doesnt want to give him 11 or 13 million dollars next year. With our pitching depth I tend to agree with GIDP. Arroyo is by no means an ace. losing him may lose some depth but we have several guys who can fill his spot and give at worst atleast similar production.
With Arroyo we have: Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Arroyo, and Maloney to start the year with hopefully Chapman at some point next season.

Without him we have: Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, and Maloney plus 9 to 11 million in savings. I like the second option better. I dont think the second rotation has a much worse ERA+ if at all.

scott91575
08-27-2010, 05:44 PM
He isnt throwing out a mythincal stat. BABIP is real and has some merit. GIDP has never once said Arroyo sucks. All he has said is his numbers suggest Arroyo takes a step back and he doesnt want to give him 11 or 13 million dollars next year. With our pitching depth I tend to agree with GIDP. Arroyo is by no means an ace. losing him may lose some depth but we have several guys who can fill his spot and give at worst atleast similar production.
With Arroyo we have: Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Arroyo, and Maloney to start the year with hopefully Chapman at some point next season.

Without him we have: Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, and Maloney plus 9 to 11 million in savings. I like the second option better. I dont think the second rotation has a much worse ERA+ if at all.

and my point all along is "what do you do with that money?" I have not gotten a single reasonable answer to that question. Just "well, you can use it elsewhere." On what? I already pointed out the young guys are going to get signed no matter what next year. I already went through in depth the free agent market. Crawford and Werth will take a ton. No other pitchers out there. A few injury prone or middle of the road guys. Now you are down to trades, which will not even become clear until the Winter meetings (after they have already made a decision on Arroyo's option).

Like I have stated, a bird in the hand....

You have Arroyo. He has been consistent, pitches a ton of innings, and it's only for one year.

You may like those other pitchers, but as I have stated throughout this thread, please name the guys that have consistently pitched a full year in the majors?

Leake, Maloney, Volquez, and Bailey have all been worse than Arroyo (career and this year....can't really count Maloney this year). Only one has pitched a full season, and he is coming off Tommy John and can't get the ball over the plate. Wood is still an unknown despite some good outings. That is 80% of your rotation with big question marks. I would rather have Arroyo for another year while that all shakes out, especially for a team that will be competing.

mound_patrol
08-27-2010, 08:02 PM
and my point all along is "what do you do with that money?" I have not gotten a single reasonable answer to that question. Just "well, you can use it elsewhere." On what? I already pointed out the young guys are going to get signed no matter what next year. I already went through in depth the free agent market. Crawford and Werth will take a ton. No other pitchers out there. A few injury prone or middle of the road guys. Now you are down to trades, which will not even become clear until the Winter meetings (after they have already made a decision on Arroyo's option).

Like I have stated, a bird in the hand....

You have Arroyo. He has been consistent, pitches a ton of innings, and it's only for one year.

You may like those other pitchers, but as I have stated throughout this thread, please name the guys that have consistently pitched a full year in the majors?

Leake, Maloney, Volquez, and Bailey have all been worse than Arroyo (career and this year....can't really count Maloney this year). Only one has pitched a full season, and he is coming off Tommy John and can't get the ball over the plate. Wood is still an unknown despite some good outings. That is 80% of your rotation with big question marks. I would rather have Arroyo for another year while that all shakes out, especially for a team that will be competing.

These pitchers are young and are being brought along at different speeds. Some of them havent been given an opportunity to pitch all season. Doesnt mean they cant. Even if one does go down the team has depth. Arroyo is a luxury I dont want to spend the money on.
There are only a few guys in the FA market who would be worth going after. If we cant get them I'd use the 11 million saved to lock up the young talent. Sign Votto long term. Take a chance and try to buy out Bruce's arb years and hope he develops into a stud. We have plenty of young guys who will get expensive. and will be more expensive the longer we wait. If we cant sign someone lock up what we have and hope the next FA class is better.