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Brutus
08-22-2010, 06:11 PM
Cabrera is eligible for a return any day now, though he'll probably held off being activated until at least Sep. 1 to allow for an extra possible playoff candidate.

My question: will Janish at least take away some of his playing time, if not most?

Interestingly, Janish is almost at 1 WAR through 140 plate appearances. Cabrera is sitting at 1.1 WAR through 450 PA's. That means that, in theory, Paul Janish would be sitting at nearly 4 wins above replacement if he were to continue his performance, being given all 600 PAs at SS this year.

Truth is, he probably would not continue his current offensive performance. But even a reduction in the offensive output, he's likely twice as valuable as Cabrera right now in theory.

Do you think Dusty and the organization is noticing the value Janish is bringing? I think they do, it's just, unfortunately, somewhat a question of 'loyalty.'

Ron Madden
08-22-2010, 06:15 PM
Cabrera is eligible for a return any day now, though he'll probably held off being activated until at least Sep. 1 to allow for an extra possible playoff candidate.

My question: will Janish at least take away some of his playing time, if not most?
Interestingly, Janish is almost at 1 WAR through 140 plate appearances. Cabrera is sitting at 1.1 WAR through 450 PA's. That means that, in theory, Paul Janish would be sitting at nearly 4 wins above replacement if he were to continue his performance, being given all 600 PAs at SS this year.

Truth is, he probably would not continue his current offensive performance. But even a reduction in the offensive output, he's likely twice as valuable as Cabrera right now in theory.

Do you think Dusty and the organization is noticing the value Janish is bringing? I think they do, it's just, unfortunately, somewhat a question of 'loyalty.'


I really hope so.

Captain Hook
08-22-2010, 06:28 PM
I keep hearing a lot of the decision makers with the Reds, including Dusty saying things like"playoff time isn't the time to be worried about hurting peoples feelings".This gives me some hope that while this team is ran by a players manager and a GM that lets him do his thing, things could be different from here on out.I really get the feeling that guys like Gomes,Cordero,Cabrera and anyone else not getting the job done or that just doesn't give the team as good of a chance to win as someone else could find the bench becoming a very familiar place.

PuffyPig
08-22-2010, 07:53 PM
I keep hearing a lot of the decision makers with the Reds, including Dusty saying things like"playoff time isn't the time to be worried about hurting peoples feelings".This gives me some hope that while this team is ran by a players manager and a GM that lets him do his thing, things could be different from here on out.I really get the feeling that guys like Gomes,Cordero,Cabrera and anyone else not getting the job done or that just doesn't give the team as good of a chance to win as someone else could find the bench becoming a very familiar place.

With 34 saves in 40 chances (85%), Cordero is in no immediate danger of losing his job.

Brutus
08-22-2010, 07:58 PM
I keep hearing a lot of the decision makers with the Reds, including Dusty saying things like"playoff time isn't the time to be worried about hurting peoples feelings".This gives me some hope that while this team is ran by a players manager and a GM that lets him do his thing, things could be different from here on out.I really get the feeling that guys like Gomes,Cordero,Cabrera and anyone else not getting the job done or that just doesn't give the team as good of a chance to win as someone else could find the bench becoming a very familiar place.

I've seen him say these things recently too, but saying them and putting them into practice seem to be two distinct things. Whether or not Dusty lives up to those words remains to be seen.

Captain Hook
08-22-2010, 08:45 PM
With 34 saves in 40 chances (85%), Cordero is in no immediate danger of losing his job.

I agree.But we saw in Chicago that if Cordero hasn't blown the save and isn't throwing strikes that someone else could take over.All I'm saying in Cordero's case is that the leash might be getting a little shorter.

GADawg
08-22-2010, 08:55 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch. One day we're wanting to throw Homer in any deal that might bring us a middling prospect and the next he's our TOR guy....Janish' and his overrated defense isn't good enough to warrant playing time and suddenly we can't live without him. Bruce sucks...Bruce rocks; Leake is Maddux redux...Leake is Jimmy Haynes(I kid, I kid); Cairo doesn't deserve a roster spot...Cairo is welcome at my house for dinner anytime; etc..etc.. my head is spinning

Ron Madden
08-22-2010, 09:00 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch. One day we're wanting to throw Homer in any deal that might bring us a middling prospect and the next he's our TOR guy....Janish' and his overrated defense isn't good enough to warrant playing time and suddenly we can't live without him. Bruce sucks...Bruce rocks; Leake is Maddux redux...Leake is Jimmy Haynes(I kid, I kid); Cairo doesn't deserve a roster spot...Cairo is welcome at my house for dinner anytime; etc..etc.. my head is spinning

So do you think Paul Janish deserves more playing time or not.


;)

Captain Hook
08-22-2010, 09:03 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch. One day we're wanting to throw Homer in any deal that might bring us a middling prospect and the next he's our TOR guy....Janish' and his overrated defense isn't good enough to warrant playing time and suddenly we can't live without him. Bruce sucks...Bruce rocks; Leake is Maddux redux...Leake is Jimmy Haynes(I kid, I kid); Cairo doesn't deserve a roster spot...Cairo is welcome at my house for dinner anytime; etc..etc.. my head is spinning

No one is suggesting that anyone is DFA or benched.I'm only suggesting that it's possible that Dusty might become a little less of a players manager now that the heat is on.

mth123
08-22-2010, 09:04 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch. One day we're wanting to throw Homer in any deal that might bring us a middling prospect and the next he's our TOR guy....Janish' and his overrated defense isn't good enough to warrant playing time and suddenly we can't live without him. Bruce sucks...Bruce rocks; Leake is Maddux redux...Leake is Jimmy Haynes(I kid, I kid); Cairo doesn't deserve a roster spot...Cairo is welcome at my house for dinner anytime; etc..etc.. my head is spinning

For the record, I never wanted to deal Homer and I never wanted Janish to be the SS. I feel the same way today.

GADawg
08-22-2010, 09:05 PM
So do you think Paul Janish deserves more playing time or not.


;)

actually I'm the only one I trust so I'd put me in...of course I'm 43(still younger than Cairo probably)and I've lost a step or 12 so I'd like to leave it up to Janish.

Seriously isn't this fun that any of us still care enough in late August to bother talking about it! I'm thinking I don't miss Tim Hummell at all!

edabbs44
08-22-2010, 09:05 PM
I think it's OCab's job when he returns.

Chip R
08-22-2010, 09:06 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch.

Fans are fickle?! Next thing you'll be telling me is that water is wet or the sun comes up in the east.

Captain Hook
08-22-2010, 09:07 PM
For the record, I never wanted to deal Homer and I never wanted Janish to be the SS. I feel the same way today.

FWIW I've always wanted Janish as our SS but as far as the other things I'll plea my innocence.

GADawg
08-22-2010, 09:09 PM
Fans are fickle?! Next thing you'll be telling me is that water is wet or the sun comes up in the east.

point taken though for some reason I always consider most of the folks that contribute here as being a cut above the typical fan.

Captain Hook
08-22-2010, 09:25 PM
point taken though for some reason I always consider most of the folks that contribute here as being a cut above the typical fan.

I'm really not sure how you could consider any fan that has supported this team for the last 10 years fickle.

Cabrera has done ok this year and has contributed.Those contributions will probably get his job back when he's able to play but there's nothing wrong with feeling that the guy filling in and doing a better job should get a little more PT when OCab is able to play again.I suppose suggesting it is somewhat typical though.

Brutus
08-22-2010, 09:25 PM
is this the same group of people(apologies to those of you who deserve it)that had to have something, anything other than Janish as "our" shortstop? We(myself included at times)are sure a fickle bunch. One day we're wanting to throw Homer in any deal that might bring us a middling prospect and the next he's our TOR guy....Janish' and his overrated defense isn't good enough to warrant playing time and suddenly we can't live without him. Bruce sucks...Bruce rocks; Leake is Maddux redux...Leake is Jimmy Haynes(I kid, I kid); Cairo doesn't deserve a roster spot...Cairo is welcome at my house for dinner anytime; etc..etc.. my head is spinning

My stance late last fall was that I wasn't crazy on Janish as the SS, but if he were able to hit his minor league numbers on a consistent basis, I would probably wind up being great with that. The more I've seen him the more I believe that to be true -- would love to keep him at SS if he can hit in the .700-.750 range.

Another issue is not just what we think of Janish but that Janish appears to be, by a hefty margin, the best option the Reds have. I do firmly believe that.

Edit: Here's what I said about this on October 8 of last year...

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1981518&highlight=janish#post1981518

oregonred
08-22-2010, 09:42 PM
Janish at anything close to .700 OPS is a way above average SS especially with his range. Not to mention he is dirt cheap for the next few years.

O-Cab's injury and getting to see Janish performing day in and day out so well in the heat of a pennant race is a godsend as the Reds plan for SS and for salaries for the next couple of years. One less expensive and difficult hole to fill for 2011. For example, they could front load an extension for Bruce or Votto with the $5+M they won't need for an "average at best" A-Gone or O-Cab type SS on the FA market.

Chip R
08-22-2010, 09:54 PM
point taken though for some reason I always consider most of the folks that contribute here as being a cut above the typical fan.

I was just teasing you but folks around here are no exception to the ups and downs that we go through regarding the players.

GADawg
08-22-2010, 10:08 PM
I was just teasing you but folks around here are no exception to the ups and downs that we go through regarding the players.

true...by the way the sun rises in the south!

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 07:47 AM
I've seen him say these things recently too, but saying them and putting them into practice seem to be two distinct things. Whether or not Dusty lives up to those words remains to be seen.

Do you trust Janish to do anything against playoff pitching? This is what worries me about giving him the job...I don't have much faith in him versus good pitching.

His numbers look ok since OCab's injury, but dig deeper and you'll see that he has basically done nothing vs Fla, Stl and LA while fattening on Pitt and Arz. I understand doing better vs dregs, but I think he is 3-29 versus the better teams recently.

I understand giving him more PT to rest Rolen and Cabrera, especially in good matchups. But I don't want him starting in the playoffs at this stage. I have more faith in Cabrera vs better pitching on that stage.

Roy Tucker
08-23-2010, 07:56 AM
I certainly think Cabrera will be the full-time SS when he comes back. Perhaps Dusty will rest him one a week now. But there aren't that many games left. Dusty will want his main guys in all the time now (Rolen is an exception).

Had this happened earlier in the season, I could see Janish getting more PT. But not now. Winning is everything. Let's not start any drama.

This will definitely impact who will be the Reds' SS in 2011 though. Janish has shown enough to seriously warrant getting the starting SS job.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 09:12 AM
If cabrera is as good of a teammate as he appears to be, does anyone think there is a chance that he will say to dusty that janish should be the starter?

Now before you laugh, consider Cabreras label as a winner. He seems to come off as an extremely unselfish player, and just wants to win. I realize he's in a contract year, but is this completely out of the question?

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 09:20 AM
If cabrera is as good of a teammate as he appears to be, does anyone think there is a chance that he will say to dusty that janish should be the starter?

Now before you laugh, consider Cabreras label as a winner. He seems to come off as an extremely unselfish player, and just wants to win. I realize he's in a contract year, but is this completely out of the question?

Maybe, if Janish did make the team better.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 09:25 AM
Maybe, if Janish did make the team better.

You and I have both been ocab guys from day 1, but after watching janish play in a full time role over the last month, I think he makes the reds better. I didn't think he could hit like he has, and his d has been truly elite. Cabreras d has been very solid and very underrated by many on here, but I think janish is an upgrade on both sides of the ball at this point. What has impressed me the most is the plate discipline.

nate
08-23-2010, 09:38 AM
At the very least, I think it should be a platoon much like the catching platoon.

So what's a better name for this multi-headed platoon? Cabish or Janera?

:cool:

nate
08-23-2010, 09:39 AM
You and I have both been ocab guys from day 1, but after watching janish play in a full time role over the last month, I think he makes the reds better. I didn't think he could hit like he has,

I'm not sure if we're seeing his true talent level or hits falling but he's playing well.


and his d has been truly elite. Cabreras d has been very solid and very underrated by many on here, but I think janish is an upgrade on both sides of the ball at this point. What has impressed me the most is the plate discipline.

Even the defense on the plays that weren't outs yesterday were spectacular.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 09:48 AM
You and I have both been ocab guys from day 1, but after watching janish play in a full time role over the last month, I think he makes the reds better. I didn't think he could hit like he has, and his d has been truly elite. Cabreras d has been very solid and very underrated by many on here, but I think janish is an upgrade on both sides of the ball at this point. What has impressed me the most is the plate discipline.

I still think he has trouble hitting good pitching. 1st round, Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels, does he do anything of substance at the plate?

membengal
08-23-2010, 09:48 AM
Does O-Cab?

.641 OPS...

flyer85
08-23-2010, 09:50 AM
I still think he has trouble hitting good pitching.as does the large majority of players ... and everyone on the Reds not named Votto or Rolen.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 09:53 AM
Does O-Cab?

.641 OPS...

If Janish played more against good teams, that OPS would not be as surprising. Zina and Pitt aren't going to be playing in October.

And OCab's OPS was really killed by a rough 6 or so week stretch with the ankle injury. He was doing just fine after the break and I don't think that he is a .640 bat.

membengal
08-23-2010, 09:57 AM
Fair enough. But that's conjecture on your part. Coming off an oblique, already having a tough year with the bat, I am not convinced he's an upgrade offensively to Janish.

Even yesterday, Janish worked two crucial walks to help this team. His OBP remains rather frisky.

And, I am sure of this, the upgrade defensively from Janish more than outweighs whatever marginal (in theory) difference in bats there might be between Cabrera and Janish.

And, indisupitibly, the Reds have won plenty since O-Cab went down, so it's sure not that Janish is hurting them in any measureable way in terms of W/Ls.

All that said, I am sure that Cabrera will get his full job back when he is healthy. Whether he should or not.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 09:58 AM
as does the large majority of players ... and everyone on the Reds not named Votto or Rolen.

Phillips had the same amt of hits yesterday than Janish had in the LA, Stl and Fla games combined. 9 games total.

membengal
08-23-2010, 10:02 AM
Janish still sitting on a .276/.362/.415 slash line for a .777 OPS. Even after all those tough series. So, he's still finding ways to get on base, and his glove remains a plus.

nate
08-23-2010, 10:05 AM
Let's play a guessing game called "pick your SS using the vs. Power/Finesse" pitching split.

Contestant #1:



Split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. Power .280 .357 .480 .837
vs. avg.P/F .282 .370 .359 .729
vs. Finesse .296 .377 .463 .840


Contestant #2:



Split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. Power .290 .346 .420 .766
vs. avg.P/F .218 .250 .311 .561
vs. Finesse .282 .324 .345 .669



Power pitchers are in the top third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Finesse are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts plus walks. Stats are based on the three years before and after (when available), and the season for when the split is computed. A split in 1994 would consider years 1991-1997 when classifying a pitcher.

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 10:08 AM
For the record, I never wanted to deal Homer and I never wanted Janish to be the SS. I feel the same way today.

Me, never wanted to deal Homer and always wanted Janish at short. It's Yonder I want to deal.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 10:09 AM
Janish still sitting on a .276/.362/.415 slash line for a .777 OPS. Even after all those tough series. So, he's still finding ways to get on base, and his glove remains a plus.

We'll be all set if they get Pitt in the first round.

Listen, I have nothing personal vs Janish and think he can be an asset to the team. But I think he gets run over at the plate if we pull Philly in the first round. Cabrera has a better shot at succeeding there, IMO.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 10:15 AM
Does power pitcher mean good and finesse mean bad? While you are digging up stats, can you dig out some examples of how Janish has fared vs successful major league pitchers this season?

membengal
08-23-2010, 10:15 AM
We'll be all set if they get Pitt in the first round.

Listen, I have nothing personal vs Janish and think he can be an asset to the team. But I think he gets run over at the plate if we pull Philly in the first round. Cabrera has a better shot at succeeding there, IMO.

Have you taken Nate's test?

How we looking against whoever get in the first round with Cabrera using your selection of "power pitchers" (which the very best staffs have)?

membengal
08-23-2010, 10:16 AM
Does power pitcher mean good and finesse mean bad? While you are digging up stats, can you dig out some examples of how Janish has fared vs successful major league pitchers this season?

At least as well as Cabrera, I'll wager. .641 OPS.

Sea Ray
08-23-2010, 10:20 AM
I don't put O'Cab back in there until he proves he's ready by putting up numbers and impressing in Louisville. I have not heard anyone in the Reds organization talking about a rehab assignment. My question is why not a rehab assignment?

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 10:23 AM
Have you taken Nate's test?

How we looking against whoever get in the first round with Cabrera using your selection of "power pitchers" (which the very best staffs have)?

Janish has homered against Ted Lilly, volstad, Steven Jackson and Daniel Hudson this season. Which of those guys are we saying is a playoff type power pitcher? I assume Lilly, but I'm not sure that we can quantify power pitcher as equalling good pitcher.

nemesis
08-23-2010, 10:25 AM
And OCab's OPS was really killed by a rough 6 or so week stretch with the ankle injury. He was doing just fine after the break and I don't think that he is a .640 bat.

He isn't a .700 Bat either. His OPS was around .670 before the ankle injury hurt his game some.

Where the big difference is to me, is that Janish works a count and takes a walk where as Cabrera doesn't. Cabrera has tons of first pitch outs this year. His walk rate sits at 5.7%. Down right atrocious from someone with pretty much minimal power. Janish is at 11.5%.

Also if you factor in since Cabrera went down Janish has OPS'd .770, played plus D, walked more than K'd facing the Cardinals (3.39), Cubs (4.42), Dodgers (3.99) and Marlins (3.93) all who have good starting staffs. Factor in the Reds have gotten every teams #1, #2 and sometimes #3 starter in every series, StL - Carpenter (2.88), Wainwright (2.06), Garcia (2.44), FLA - Johnson (2.27), Sanchez (3.16), LA - Kershaw (3.07), Billingsley (3.70), ChC - Dempster (3.56), Gorzelanny (3.70), Arz - Hudson (1.72), Saunders (4.24) (40 wins in his last 82 starts) (Arroyo has 44 in 93) he has done this against some very, very good pitchers. Do you think Cabrera could have OPS'd .770 against those pitchers? In the ONE game against Pittsburgh he did play in, he faced Reds killer Pat Maholm. Now he gets to face Cain (3.11), Sanchez (3.47)and Bumgardner (3.20) not a easy slate. If he is still OPSing .750+ after this series, yes, he deserves to keep his spot.


If Janish played more against good teams, that OPS would not be as surprising. Zina and Pitt aren't going to be playing in October.

So he hasn't really got to face the soft underbelly of the NL bottom dwellers yet. When he does, it suggests his OPS might increase.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 10:43 AM
Nemesis, did he ops .770 vs those pitchers or did he OPS much less and then boost his numbers when guys like Gallagher, Jackson and Demel.

If someone can show me evidence that he can hit good pitching then I will be quiet. Real life examples of good pitchers, not power vs finesse or anything like that. Show me why he should face playoff pitching. In the 2nd half of this year I see Cabrera with multihit games vs Oswalt, Gallardo, Lilly, Hanson. Can we show that Janish can be an asset when there is a stud on the mound?

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 10:49 AM
My stance late last fall was that I wasn't crazy on Janish as the SS, but if he were able to hit his minor league numbers on a consistent basis, I would probably wind up being great with that. The more I've seen him the more I believe that to be true -- would love to keep him at SS if he can hit in the .700-.750 range.

Another issue is not just what we think of Janish but that Janish appears to be, by a hefty margin, the best option the Reds have. I do firmly believe that.

Edit: Here's what I said about this on October 8 of last year...

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1981518&highlight=janish#post1981518 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1981518&highlight=janish#post1981518)

Ugh. You just had to link to that didn't you. Re-reading me getting sucked into that freaking Taveras debate again with TRF. You're just mean. :O)

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 10:55 AM
Let's play a guessing game called "pick your SS using the vs. Power/Finesse" pitching split.

Contestant #1:



Split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. Power .280 .357 .480 .837
vs. avg.P/F .282 .370 .359 .729
vs. Finesse .296 .377 .463 .840
Contestant #2:



Split BA OBP SLG OPS
vs. Power .290 .346 .420 .766
vs. avg.P/F .218 .250 .311 .561
vs. Finesse .282 .324 .345 .669


Okay, I'll bite. I'll take contestant #1. But that's only figuring in the offense. I think defense is the most important aspect of a Shortstop. But if we're going strictly with the stick...#1.


so....which one is which?

Razor Shines
08-23-2010, 11:41 AM
Nemesis, did he ops .770 vs those pitchers or did he OPS much less and then boost his numbers when guys like Gallagher, Jackson and Demel.

If someone can show me evidence that he can hit good pitching then I will be quiet. Real life examples of good pitchers, not power vs finesse or anything like that. Show me why he should face playoff pitching. In the 2nd half of this year I see Cabrera with multihit games vs Oswalt, Gallardo, Lilly, Hanson. Can we show that Janish can be an asset when there is a stud on the mound?

This seems like a completely ridiculous reason to keep Janish out for Cabrera. Cabrera's been crap at the plate the whole season, at least Janish is raking against somebody. I don't really care who Janish has homered off of. In his very limited playing time it's more random than anything you're going to be a able to prove one way or another. But Janish works the count and gets on base, up to this point anyway. Cabrera simply doesn't. This one's a no brainer if there ever was one.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 11:57 AM
This seems like a completely ridiculous reason to keep Janish out for Cabrera. Cabrera's been crap at the plate the whole season, at least Janish is raking against somebody. I don't really care who Janish has homered off of. In his very limited playing time it's more random than anything you're going to be a able to prove one way or another. But Janish works the count and gets on base, up to this point anyway. Cabrera simply doesn't. This one's a no brainer if there ever was one.

Nice post.

It should also be pointed out that even when the hits aren't falling in for Janish, he's still capable of reaching base via the walk whereas Cabrera doesn't walk much. Cabrera has 25 walks this season in 453 plate appearances; Janish has 16 walks in 143 plate appearances. The Reds are a better team with Janish at SS, IMO. He makes the Reds pitching staff better with his defense at SS.

bucksfan2
08-23-2010, 12:15 PM
I have a feeling that this will be a hot button issue for the remainder of the season. And I am fairly confident that when Cabrera is 100% healthy he will be inserted back as the starting SS. And to be honest that is what I would do as well. If I had to pick between the two who will have a better bat from now to the end of the season its Cabrera. If I had to pick a guy who I wanted playing contending and even playoff baseball, Im going to pick the guy who has done it 5 out of the last 6 years.

What Janish has done over the last couple of weeks has been more for 2011 than it has 2010. I think the Reds now know that Janish can play serviceable SS in the major leagues. Maybe now they can focus their attention on getting an impact LF bat this off season and go into 2011 with a Cozart/Janish combo at SS.

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 12:19 PM
I have a feeling that this will be a hot button issue for the remainder of the season. And I am fairly confident that when Cabrera is 100% healthy he will be inserted back as the starting SS. And to be honest that is what I would do as well. If I had to pick between the two who will have a better bat from now to the end of the season its Cabrera. If I had to pick a guy who I wanted playing contending and even playoff baseball, Im going to pick the guy who has done it 5 out of the last 6 years.

What Janish has done over the last couple of weeks has been more for 2011 than it has 2010. I think the Reds now know that Janish can play serviceable SS in the major leagues. Maybe now they can focus their attention on getting an impact LF bat this off season and go into 2011 with a Cozart/Janish combo at SS.

That's a bandwagon I can jump on, at least the SS part of the equation.

VR
08-23-2010, 12:21 PM
Dusty was quoted as saying he'll look at Cabrera's return when they get back to Cincy on Friday. It's good to know he's not forcing OCab back in SF.....shows at least a little confidence in PJ.

nate
08-23-2010, 12:37 PM
Okay, I'll bite. I'll take contestant #1. But that's only figuring in the offense. I think defense is the most important aspect of a Shortstop. But if we're going strictly with the stick...#1.


so....which one is which?

Janish is #1.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 12:37 PM
This seems like a completely ridiculous reason to keep Janish out for Cabrera. Cabrera's been crap at the plate the whole season, at least Janish is raking against somebody. I don't really care who Janish has homered off of. In his very limited playing time it's more random than anything you're going to be a able to prove one way or another. But Janish works the count and gets on base, up to this point anyway. Cabrera simply doesn't. This one's a no brainer if there ever was one.

It's ridiculous to want to see a guy perform against playoff like competition?

RichRed
08-23-2010, 12:43 PM
What's frustrating is that although Dusty (rightly, IMO) bats Janish 8th most of the time, O-Cab seems to be a #1 or #2-slot guy for Dusty. He's just a killer - and not in a good way - at the top of the order.

I suspect Cabrera will be reinstated as the starter once he's determined to be healthy, but I'd rather see Janish in there most of the time, mostly because of that defense.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 12:45 PM
Nice post.

It should also be pointed out that even when the hits aren't falling in for Janish, he's still capable of reaching base via the walk whereas Cabrera doesn't walk much. Cabrera has 25 walks this season in 453 plate appearances; Janish has 16 walks in 143 plate appearances. The Reds are a better team with Janish at SS, IMO. He makes the Reds pitching staff better with his defense at SS.

Some metrics show Cabrera as being the 5th best defensive SS in the majors this season. This metric that I speak of is the same one that was used against OCab in the beginning of the season.

He isn't a bad fielder and you can tell by watching that he is pretty good one. That is, as long as you check your biases at the door.

westofyou
08-23-2010, 12:53 PM
Dusty was quoted as saying he'll look at Cabrera's return when they get back to Cincy on Friday. It's good to know he's not forcing OCab back in SF.....shows at least a little confidence in PJ.

Not sure it's strictly confidence, SF is not a good spot to bring back muscle injuries, cold and damp it's likely better to have him stretch it out back in the land of humidity.

BRM
08-23-2010, 12:57 PM
Some metrics show Cabrera as being the 5th best defensive SS in the majors this season. This metric that I speak of is the same one that was used against OCab in the beginning of the season.

He isn't a bad fielder and you can tell by watching that he is pretty good one. That is, as long as you check your biases at the door.

UZR/150 has Janish as being better than Cabrera in his limited playing time. That said, I agree with you that OCab has been better than many of us expected him to be defensively. I wouldn't have a problem with Dusty putting him back in the lineup as the primary SS when he returns...as long as he keeps hitting the way he was right after the ASB.

VR
08-23-2010, 01:03 PM
Not sure it's strictly confidence, SF is not a good spot to bring back muscle injuries, cold and damp it's likely better to have him stretch it out back in the land of humidity.

I used to get a sunburn in the 1st inning , frost bite in the 9th...but that was Candlestick.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 01:06 PM
UZR/150 has Janish as being better than Cabrera in his limited playing time. That said, I agree with you that OCab has been better than many of us expected him to be defensively. I wouldn't have a problem with Dusty putting him back in the lineup as the primary SS when he returns...as long as he keeps hitting the way he was right after the ASB.

Agree. If he comes out of the gates and goes looks horrendous then maybe it is time to reassess, dependent upon the circumstances. This guy is the starter and will most likely start when he gets back.

Brutus
08-23-2010, 02:48 PM
Do you trust Janish to do anything against playoff pitching? This is what worries me about giving him the job...I don't have much faith in him versus good pitching.

His numbers look ok since OCab's injury, but dig deeper and you'll see that he has basically done nothing vs Fla, Stl and LA while fattening on Pitt and Arz. I understand doing better vs dregs, but I think he is 3-29 versus the better teams recently.

I understand giving him more PT to rest Rolen and Cabrera, especially in good matchups. But I don't want him starting in the playoffs at this stage. I have more faith in Cabrera vs better pitching on that stage.

Do I? I don't know. But Orlando Cabrera hasn't been so hot in the playoffs.

2009: 2-for-13 with the Twins; 0 XBH
2008: 2-for-16 with the Sox; 0 XBH
2007: 3-for-12 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a double)
2005: 4-for-20 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a homer)
2004: 17-for-60 with the Red Sox: 4 XBH (4 doubles)

CAREER: 28-for-121 (.231) with 6 XBH (.298 Slugging)

Obviously sample sizes are still an issue, but there's a track record there of not performing well. So if we're talking about whether Janish would do well... hard to say. However, the alternative hasn't been stellar in that setting.

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 02:57 PM
Some metrics show Cabrera as being the 5th best defensive SS in the majors this season. This metric that I speak of is the same one that was used against OCab in the beginning of the season.

He isn't a bad fielder and you can tell by watching that he is pretty good one. That is, as long as you check your biases at the door.

I agree with this (and I'm heavily in the pro-Janish camp). Cabrera is about as sure-handed as you get. His range is pretty average (maybe below average), but what he gets to, he converts into outs. The thing is...Janish get to MORE balls, and he converts them into outs too. So even though Cabrera is much better than he was showing in the early portion of the season, he's still quite a bit behind Janish with the glove.

As for the bat, Cabrera's got more experience (which would help in the postseason), but right now Janish is swinging a better bat. But more importantly is this...if Cabrera struggles at the plate, he hurts the club because he swings early in the count and doesn't walk much. If Janish struggles at the plate, he still works the count, pushes up the pitchers pitch count, AND still draws walks. But for now, he ain't strugglin'.

Another plus to having Janish in there instead of Orlando...Dusty's gotten quite comfortable with Paul hitting in the lower part of the order. If Cabrera's in there, you're most likely looking at your #2 hitter. Hopefully I'm wrong on that, but I don't think so.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 03:05 PM
Do I? I don't know. But Orlando Cabrera hasn't been so hot in the playoffs.

2009: 2-for-13 with the Twins; 0 XBH
2008: 2-for-16 with the Sox; 0 XBH
2007: 3-for-12 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a double)
2005: 4-for-20 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a homer)
2004: 17-for-60 with the Red Sox: 4 XBH (4 doubles)

CAREER: 28-for-121 (.231) with 6 XBH (.298 Slugging)

Obviously sample sizes are still an issue, but there's a track record there of not performing well. So if we're talking about whether Janish would do well... hard to say. However, the alternative hasn't been stellar in that setting.

Wow, great find. :thumbup:

Ron Madden
08-23-2010, 03:12 PM
Do I? I don't know. But Orlando Cabrera hasn't been so hot in the playoffs.

2009: 2-for-13 with the Twins; 0 XBH
2008: 2-for-16 with the Sox; 0 XBH
2007: 3-for-12 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a double)
2005: 4-for-20 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a homer)
2004: 17-for-60 with the Red Sox: 4 XBH (4 doubles)

CAREER: 28-for-121 (.231) with 6 XBH (.298 Slugging)

Obviously sample sizes are still an issue, but there's a track record there of not performing well. So if we're talking about whether Janish would do well... hard to say. However, the alternative hasn't been stellar in that setting.

Good stuff. Well done Brutus.

bucksfan2
08-23-2010, 03:27 PM
Do I? I don't know. But Orlando Cabrera hasn't been so hot in the playoffs.

2009: 2-for-13 with the Twins; 0 XBH
2008: 2-for-16 with the Sox; 0 XBH
2007: 3-for-12 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a double)
2005: 4-for-20 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a homer)
2004: 17-for-60 with the Red Sox: 4 XBH (4 doubles)

CAREER: 28-for-121 (.231) with 6 XBH (.298 Slugging)

Obviously sample sizes are still an issue, but there's a track record there of not performing well. So if we're talking about whether Janish would do well... hard to say. However, the alternative hasn't been stellar in that setting.

While that is fine and dandy and all I am less worried about post season stats and more worried about getting there. A majority of the Reds most valuable players carry a career post season line of 0-0 with 0 XBH. Cabrera has been down the stretch with playoff contending teams in the past 6 seasons with this year being his 7th in a row.

I don't underestimate the value of playoff experience as well as pennant race experience. Cabrera has an abundance of both.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 03:28 PM
While that is fine and dandy and all I am less worried about post season stats and more worried about getting there. A majority of the Reds most valuable players carry a career post season line of 0-0 with 0 XBH. Cabrera has been down the stretch with playoff contending teams in the past 6 seasons with this year being his 7th in a row.

I don't underestimate the value of playoff experience as well as pennant race experience. Cabrera has an abundance of both.

In fairness, he was responding to the assertion that someone was stating they would rather have OC's bat in the playoffs.

Brutus
08-23-2010, 03:41 PM
While that is fine and dandy and all I am less worried about post season stats and more worried about getting there. A majority of the Reds most valuable players carry a career post season line of 0-0 with 0 XBH. Cabrera has been down the stretch with playoff contending teams in the past 6 seasons with this year being his 7th in a row.

I don't underestimate the value of playoff experience as well as pennant race experience. Cabrera has an abundance of both.

As Homer said, I was responding to a point about whether I trusted Janish in the playoffs. I personally am not thinking about the playoffs when I think about who I'd like to see play short the rest of the season. I value playoff experience and I think it plays a role in getting there and being there. But in response to whether I would trust Janish in the playoffs, I think Cabrera's past performances are fair game.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 03:41 PM
In fairness, he was responding to the assertion that someone was stating they would rather have OC's bat in the playoffs.

And I still would. After watching both of them this season I am just not confident when Janish is facing a good pitcher.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 03:45 PM
BTW, for those in the Janish works the count camp, he averages .39 more pitches per PA than Cabrera does. Is that anything to really het worked up about?

westofyou
08-23-2010, 03:49 PM
BTW, for those in the Janish works the count camp, he averages .39 more pitches per PA than Cabrera does. Is that anything to really het worked up about?

It's about 230 extra pitches per 600 ab's, so it's not minuscule, nor amazing either. IIRC Janish is also having his best season for pitches seen, so at this juncture it's more an anomaly than truism.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 03:51 PM
As Homer said, I was responding to a point about whether I trusted Janish in the playoffs. I personally am not thinking about the playoffs when I think about who I'd like to see play short the rest of the season. I value playoff experience and I think it plays a role in getting there and being there. But in response to whether I would trust Janish in the playoffs, I think Cabrera's past performances are fair game.

I'm talking less about playoff experience and more about facing quality pitching.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 03:53 PM
It's about 230 extra pitches per 600 ab's, so it's not minuscule, nor amazing either. IIRC Janish is also having his best season for pitches seen, so at this juncture it's more an anomaly than truism.

Right, and in a playoff series it is worth about 6 pitches.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 03:54 PM
And I still would. After watching both of them this season I am just not confident when Janish is facing a good pitcher.

And that's a fine opinion to have. I'm not suggesting your wrong. I think it's reasonable to feel the way you do.

At this point, I'd rather have the much more patient Janish at the plate with his D at this point.

Plus, I like the fact that Janish hits 8, whereas we know that Cabrera would hit 2nd.

Brutus
08-23-2010, 03:59 PM
And I still would. After watching both of them this season I am just not confident when Janish is facing a good pitcher.

I did this quickly by hand, so it could be off by an at-bat or two, but this definitely gives you the picture.

Against teams that are .500 or better this year:

Orlando Cabrera

50-of-205 (.244)
10 walks (.279 OBP)
1 HR / 10 2B (.307 SLG)
.586 OPS

Paul Janish

13-of-51 (.255)
6 walks (.333 OBP)
1 HR / 4 2B (.392 SLG)
.725 OPS

Teams included: ATL, PHI, FLA, NYM, STL, SD, SF, COL, LAD

Looking at a quick snapshot of what these two have done against better teams, I know who I trust more right now... and it's not Cabrera.

EDIT:

Against teams that are below .500

Cabrera: 58-of-211 (.275), 15 walks (.323 OBP), 2 HR / 14 2B (.370 SLG) - .693 OPS (+107 difference)
Janish: 21-of-72 (.292), 10 walks (.378 OBP), 3 HR / 1 2B (.431 SLG) - .809 OPS (+84 difference)

It's actually Cabrera benefitting more from facing worse teams (pitching).

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 04:10 PM
I did this quickly by hand, so it could be off by an at-bat or two, but this definitely gives you the picture.

Against teams that are .500 or better this year:

Orlando Cabrera

50-of-205 (.244)
10 walks (.279 OBP)
1 HR / 10 2B (.307 SLG)
.586 OPS

Paul Janish

13-of-51 (.255)
6 walks (.333 OBP)
1 HR / 4 2B (.392 SLG)
.725 OPS

Teams included: ATL, PHI, FLA, NYM, STL, SD, SF, COL, LAD

Looking at a quick snapshot of what these two have done against better teams, I know who I trust more right now... and it's not Cabrera.

Again, well played, sir. Someone butter this guy, because he's on a roll today. :)

Brutus
08-23-2010, 04:15 PM
Again, well played, sir. Someone butter this guy, because he's on a roll today. :)

I prefer jam with my rolls.

:cool:

BRM
08-23-2010, 04:31 PM
Good stuff Brutus. Thanks for doing the research. Appreciate the education. :)

Razor Shines
08-23-2010, 04:33 PM
I did this quickly by hand, so it could be off by an at-bat or two, but this definitely gives you the picture.

Against teams that are .500 or better this year:

Orlando Cabrera

50-of-205 (.244)
10 walks (.279 OBP)
1 HR / 10 2B (.307 SLG)
.586 OPS

Paul Janish

13-of-51 (.255)
6 walks (.333 OBP)
1 HR / 4 2B (.392 SLG)
.725 OPS

Teams included: ATL, PHI, FLA, NYM, STL, SD, SF, COL, LAD

Looking at a quick snapshot of what these two have done against better teams, I know who I trust more right now... and it's not Cabrera.

EDIT:

Against teams that are below .500

Cabrera: 58-of-211 (.275), 15 walks (.323 OBP), 2 HR / 14 2B (.370 SLG) - .693 OPS (+107 difference)
Janish: 21-of-72 (.292), 10 walks (.378 OBP), 3 HR / 1 2B (.431 SLG) - .809 OPS (+84 difference)

It's actually Cabrera benefitting more from facing worse teams (pitching).

I like it too, but the real point is that it's RANDOM. There aren't enough PAs to say one way or another. One thing I do know is that if you take all of his PAs from the entire season, Ocab has been prettyyyyy, prettyyyyyyyyyy, pretty bad at the plate.

nate
08-23-2010, 04:41 PM
I did this kind of quickly, hope it's not too scattered!

Here are some more fun defensive numbers to chew on!


Name Inn DRS BIZ Plays RZR OOZ UZR UZR/150
O-Cab 874 4 245 204 .833 27 5.5 8.5
Janish 1033 12 328 286 .863 32 10.3 13.8


The numbers for O-Cab come from this year. The numbers for Janish come from his career because he has so little playing time. Nevertheless, this seems to be saying that Janish measures to be around a 5-run better defender than O-Cab. There's an 8 run difference in Defensive Runs Saved but once O-Cab got as many innings in as Babe Janish, he'd probably close the gap a little. UZR and UZR/150 are roughly 5-ish runs different. Janish gets the edge on balls hit into his zone by making a good .030 more plays than O-Cab.

My WoTV score has Janish much better because he has better range and a rail gun for an arm. O-Cab improved as the season went along but I still think he needs Lasik or perhaps "Rec Specs"; I've seen him dive over several balls.

Here are some fun offensive numbers...well...number:


Janish Career wOBA: .285
O-Cab 2010 wOBA: .289

Why Janish's career versus O-Cab's 2010? Because I think this is what a reasonable expectation would've been had Janish gotten the job at the start of the season. In other words, a miniscule dropoff in offense but half a win better defense and $2.5-ish million in exchange for a tangy sauce of vetty goodness.

Now, all that came before was based on what I believe one could've reasonably expected from Janish versus what O-Cab has actually delivered. Of course, O-Cab's expectations were...well, not entirely off the mark versus what he's done. They range anywhere from a 0.9 to a 1.4 WAR. FWIW, Janish, for his career (524 PA) has put up a 1.4 WAR.

So are those intangibles worth roughly what one would pay for 1 WAR in FA? Janish is likely around .5 WAR better than O-Cab right now and O-Cab is being paid like a .5 WAR player (including buyout if he declines.) Maybe it is to this team at this time. However, going forward, I think Janish has earned more playing time. At the very least, a platoon which benefits Janish with more regular playing time and O-Cab with days off to keep him fresh and stir his spicy pot of intangible chili to serve up in the clubhouse and dugout during cold October baseball on the banks of the Ohio River.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 04:45 PM
I prefer jam with my rolls.

:cool:

I'd recheck my math if I were you...and here's a hint, bb ref does it for you. I'm on a phone or else I'd post it.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 04:48 PM
Good stuff Brutus. Thanks for doing the research. Appreciate the education. :)

Graduation is delayed. Don't believe everything you read.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 04:58 PM
OC has a .686 OPS vs. teams with a WP of >.500, and a .606 OPS vs teams with a WP of <.500.

Janish has a .681 OPS vs. teams with a WP of >.500, and a .844 OPS vs teams with a WP of <.500.

westofyou
08-23-2010, 05:04 PM
I've been trying to remember WS winning teams that got a SS who finished the year when the current one wasn't good enough, or got injured. So far I have 3 off the top of my head

2004 - Boston - OC showed up
1968 - Tigers bench Oyler and put CF Stanley there in WS
1920 - Indians - Chapman beaned/dies and Joe Sewell arrives

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 05:08 PM
Just something to add to the discussion here that I noticed in the game vs. LA the other day. While Janish clearly has the stronger arm he seems to have a long wind up when he throws, whereas OCab has a pretty quick release. I thought for sure Paul would throw out Casey Blake just on the edge of the grass in the hole and someone else beat the throw on him as well, the catcher Ellis maybe. But the Blake play I thought Paul should have made.

Nothing major but something that would negate a bit of Pauls arm strength over Orlando.

BRM
08-23-2010, 05:11 PM
OC has a .686 OPS vs. teams with a WP of >.500, and a .606 OPS vs teams with a WP of <.500.

Janish has a .681 OPS vs. teams with a WP of >.500, and a .844 OPS vs teams with a WP of <.500.

So they are pretty even against winning teams.

Brutus
08-23-2010, 05:18 PM
Graduation is delayed. Don't believe everything you read.

I think I doubled ABs for Cabrera against someone... I've looked again at Janish's number and I'm not seeing any errors.

Either way... the sample is as such I don't want to get into a situation where we are haggling over a hit here or an out there.

At very least, if you have a concern of Janish against good teams, I don't see how you couldn't be equally concerned about Cabrera. At best, Cabrera is doing no better than Janish against good competition.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 05:23 PM
I think I doubled ABs for Cabrera against someone... I've looked again at Janish's number and I'm not seeing any errors.

Either way... the sample is as such I don't want to get into a situation where we are haggling over a hit here or an out there.

At very least, if you have a concern of Janish against good teams, I don't see how you couldn't be equally concerned about Cabrera. At best, Cabrera is doing no better than Janish against good competition.

You posted that Janish had a .725 OPS vs. above .500 teams, when he has a .681. Not a huge difference, but there isn't the disparity in the numbers that you tried to show.

Brutus
08-23-2010, 05:28 PM
You posted that Janish had a .725 OPS vs. above .500 teams, when he has a .681. Not a huge difference, but there isn't the disparity in the numbers that you tried to show.

I prefaced my post by saying I did it quickly and there could have been an error. If there was, then it's my mistake... I didn't claim those numbers were 100% accurate (as I said to begin with, I was more worried about the general picture).

The point remains: the argument was that Janish was unable to hit good pitching. Clearly he's doing no worse than Cabrera to this point. Yes?

That is the point I am trying to "show." I am really not trying to suggest anything other than the portrayal of Janish is no more/less accurate than of Cabrera.

nate
08-23-2010, 05:37 PM
Janish, 2010



Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
WP lt .500 84 .306 .386 .458 .844
WP of .500+ 59 .235 .328 .353 .681


OCab, 2010



Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
WP lt .500 247 .256 .298 .308 .606
WP of .500+ 206 .265 .307 .376 .683



Janish and O-Cab are virtually the same vs. teams >.500. O-Cab seems to take a day off vs. teams that are <.500. However, again, we're looking at tiny sample sizes for O-Cab and let's not even get into Janish's sample size. These are nice to look at and say, "yep, that's what they did" but, at this size, they are not an indication of how they'll do going forward no matter how many times an announcer regurgitates similar samples and smaller during a game.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 05:53 PM
I wonder if Walt and Dusty does this kind of stuff when they're discussing who should play between the two?

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 06:00 PM
I prefaced my post by saying I did it quickly and there could have been an error. If there was, then it's my mistake... I didn't claim those numbers were 100% accurate (as I said to begin with, I was more worried about the general picture).

The point remains: the argument was that Janish was unable to hit good pitching. Clearly he's doing no worse than Cabrera to this point. Yes?

That is the point I am trying to "show." I am really not trying to suggest anything other than the portrayal of Janish is no more/less accurate than of Cabrera.

Hey man, I'm on your side here. I'm supporting Janish. I was responding to this:


I've looked again at Janish's number and I'm not seeing any errors.

as there was an error in your post about Janish's numbers.

I personally don't think these numbers mean much, but your original post, in which I'm aware you said you did it quickly, would lead one to believe that Janish has outperformed Cabrera strongly against better teams, and that simply is not true, as they are closer to a wash offensively.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 06:28 PM
I prefaced my post by saying I did it quickly and there could have been an error. If there was, then it's my mistake... I didn't claim those numbers were 100% accurate (as I said to begin with, I was more worried about the general picture).

The point remains: the argument was that Janish was unable to hit good pitching. Clearly he's doing no worse than Cabrera to this point. Yes?

That is the point I am trying to "show." I am really not trying to suggest anything other than the portrayal of Janish is no more/less accurate than of Cabrera.

Well the other issue is that we are generalizing good pitching as meaning teams over .500, which isn't exactly correct. For example, Janish got a nice bump in his numbers vs Chris Volstad, who isn't exactly striking fear in the hearts of batters across America. In addition, I know that Cabrera had good games vs Oswalt and Gallardo, who wouldn't show up in these stats. And I know that this point can go both ways, I am sure that Cabrera had a good game vs a lame pitcher on a good team somewhere down the line.

Since taking over for OCab, Janish has had a few games vs legit pitching. 3 Cards, billingsley, kershaw and Josh J come to mind. Has there been anything there that gives you confidence that he will be successful in the playoffs against the Cards, SD, Philly or Atlanta?

Not to say that it is impossible, but he isn't making me change my opinion.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 06:56 PM
Is there any chance that the next 3 games against some pretty good Giants pitching might solve some of this?

Before looking at all of the provided stats in this thread I felt strongly that if I had to have someone at the plate to keep a inning alive and my choice was between Cabrera and Janish I would've chose Janish.My opinion hasn't changed and we all agree that Janish plays better defense.So if the question was "should" instead of "will Janish take time from Cabrera" my answer would be obvious.

As far as what will actually happen.I have to go back to my original post when I suggested that Dusty just might be more willing to do whatever it takes to win games.I think we can all agree that Dusty cares about these guys feelings and makes some decisions based on that during the course of the season.That fact that he has stated recently that feeling being hurt is no longer a concern I think we might be surprised with some of Dusty's decisions going forward.

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 07:11 PM
Since taking over for OCab, Janish has had a few games vs legit pitching. 3 Cards, billingsley, kershaw and Josh J come to mind. Has there been anything there that gives you confidence that he will be successful in the playoffs against the Cards, SD, Philly or Atlanta?

Not to say that it is impossible, but he isn't making me change my opinion.

I agree with you that Janish struggled against these guys. But are you implying that Cabrera WOULDN'T have struggled against them? Most players do.

Phillips had 1 good game against that group, otherwise went 5 for 24.
Rolen had 1 good game against that group, otherwise went 1 for 15.

Janish went 2 for 19 with 5 walks against that group. Also saw more pitches than ANY other Red against those guys combined.

RedsManRick
08-23-2010, 07:20 PM
Splitting Janish's 2010 performance to try and predict how well he'll hit against certain opponents is reading tea leaves -- all it tells us is what he's done against whom. It has zero predictive value on how well he is likely to performance against that quality of competition in the future.

I would argue that anybody asserting that Janish's offensive performance this year, relative to O-Cab, is due to the quality of the pitching they've each faced has a big uphill climb in proving it. I've looked and not been able to find any place that shows quality of pitching faced.

I certainly don't discount the possibility that Janish has had it easy on balance compared to Cabrera, but citing anecdotes, which are by definition a collection of events selectively remembered because of their variance from the norm, is hardly a convincing way to make the argument.

Cedric
08-23-2010, 07:23 PM
Well the other issue is that we are generalizing good pitching as meaning teams over .500, which isn't exactly correct. For example, Janish got a nice bump in his numbers vs Chris Volstad, who isn't exactly striking fear in the hearts of batters across America. In addition, I know that Cabrera had good games vs Oswalt and Gallardo, who wouldn't show up in these stats. And I know that this point can go both ways, I am sure that Cabrera had a good game vs a lame pitcher on a good team somewhere down the line.

Since taking over for OCab, Janish has had a few games vs legit pitching. 3 Cards, billingsley, kershaw and Josh J come to mind. Has there been anything there that gives you confidence that he will be successful in the playoffs against the Cards, SD, Philly or Atlanta?

Not to say that it is impossible, but he isn't making me change my opinion.

Great pitchers get out most everyone. A completely pointless exercise to cherry pick those games.

TheNext44
08-23-2010, 07:43 PM
The fact that the Reds, if they make the playoffs, will be facing many #1 and #2 pitchers, to me suggests that the Reds should field the best fielding team possible. The games likely will be low scoring. I would make sure the Reds put the team best at run prevention on the field.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 08:16 PM
Splitting Janish's 2010 performance to try and predict how well he'll hit against certain opponents is reading tea leaves -- all it tells us is what he's done against whom. It has zero predictive value on how well he is likely to performance against that quality of competition in the future.

I would argue that anybody asserting that Janish's offensive performance this year, relative to O-Cab, is due to the quality of the pitching they've each faced has a big uphill climb in proving it. I've looked and not been able to find any place that shows quality of pitching faced.

I certainly don't discount the possibility that Janish has had it easy on balance compared to Cabrera, but citing anecdotes, which are by definition a collection of events selectively remembered because of their variance from the norm, is hardly a convincing way to make the argument.

I wasn't trying to prove anything OCab vs Janish. I was posing the question of whether or not you'd feel comfy letting Janish face some studs in the playoffs. I've seen OCab have some success vs front line starters, especially in the 2nd half of this year. I haven't seen it from Janish.

edabbs44
08-23-2010, 08:21 PM
Great pitchers get out most everyone. A completely pointless exercise to cherry pick those games.

Not really cherry picking. Trying to ascertain whether or not Janish would be the right choice for the home stretch and playoff schedule. Tracking their performance vs the cream of the crop pitchers of the league is better than looking at 100 random ABs since one good game versus a scrub can materially skew the numbers.

If they face Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels in the first round, you are gonna need to score a run or 2.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 06:02 AM
I agree with you that Janish struggled against these guys. But are you implying that Cabrera WOULDN'T have struggled against them? Most players do.

Phillips had 1 good game against that group, otherwise went 5 for 24.
Rolen had 1 good game against that group, otherwise went 1 for 15.

Janish went 2 for 19 with 5 walks against that group. Also saw more pitches than ANY other Red against those guys combined.

Not implying that, saying that I believe he has a better chance of hitting these guys. He may have drawn the collar in these same situations or he may have had 6 hits.

But when people start talking about Janish starting over Cabrera, let's take this into acct when offensive numbers get thrown around. His stats haven't been built against the top pitchers in the league.

Ron Madden
08-24-2010, 10:55 AM
Cabrera has exceeded my expectations for 2010 but I'd still like to see Janish get the lions share of playing time.

I believe Janish is better defensively, he's younger, he's cheaper, and I believe he's a better fit for the long term plan of the organization.

Just my humble opinion.

bucksfan2
08-24-2010, 11:01 AM
Cabrera has exceeded my expectations for 2010 but I'd still like to see Janish get the lions share of playing time.

I believe Janish is better defensively, he's younger, he's cheaper, and I believe he's a better fit for the long term plan of the organization.

Just my humble opinion.

I can't disagree with anything I bolded. Janish should be in serious consideration for next season and beyond as the Reds SS. But right now I want someone who has experienced pressure packed baseball. Someone who has played in a pennant race each year since 2004. That guy is Cabrera, and I want him as the starting SS down the stretch of the season. 2011 is a whole different ballgame.

Ron Madden
08-24-2010, 11:37 AM
I can't disagree with anything I bolded. Janish should be in serious consideration for next season and beyond as the Reds SS. But right now I want someone who has experienced pressure packed baseball. Someone who has played in a pennant race each year since 2004. That guy is Cabrera, and I want him as the starting SS down the stretch of the season. 2011 is a whole different ballgame.

I understand your line of thought.

But Cabrera never had that kind of experience until he was given the chance.

I believe now is a fine time for Janish to gain some of that kind of experience.

Razor Shines
08-24-2010, 11:41 AM
I can't disagree with anything I bolded. Janish should be in serious consideration for next season and beyond as the Reds SS. But right now I want someone who has experienced pressure packed baseball. Someone who has played in a pennant race each year since 2004. That guy is Cabrera, and I want him as the starting SS down the stretch of the season. 2011 is a whole different ballgame.
He's got less range and a worse arm than janish, how does experience help that? The best we can say for oc is that he might equal janish in glove work and at the plate. The fact that he's pretty much been carried to the post season because he has been on really good teams means nothing to me.

RedsManRick
08-24-2010, 12:04 PM
I wasn't trying to prove anything OCab vs Janish. I was posing the question of whether or not you'd feel comfy letting Janish face some studs in the playoffs. I've seen OCab have some success vs front line starters, especially in the 2nd half of this year. I haven't seen it from Janish.

My point is that "seeing it" is a completely meaningless way of assessing each guy's ability to hit quality pitching. You're certainly entitled to your comfort level, but I think it's an extremely poor basis for comparison, especially given Janish's comparative paucity of opportunity and that you seem to be treating success vs. starters like a counting stat as opposed to a rate (success given the number of opportunities isn't relevant, just the number of times you've seen success).

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 12:47 PM
My point is that "seeing it" is a completely meaningless way of assessing each guy's ability to hit quality pitching. You're certainly entitled to your comfort level, but I think it's an extremely poor basis for comparison, especially given Janish's comparative paucity of opportunity and that you seem to be treating success vs. starters like a counting stat as opposed to a rate (success given the number of opportunities isn't relevant, just the number of times you've seen success).

I disagree 1000%.

Stats do not = stats in all cases. People want to take Janish's numbers and throw them around and say that he is worth x and Cabrera is worth y, when that is a very flawed comparison. Especially when you have a small sample size and tag a few AAA level pitchers, those numbers can shift pretty dramatically.

Janish faced another legit pitcher last night and went 0-3. Again, not saying that he will not ever bang a few around the park against a stud. I'm just saying that he has had a number of chances to show that he can make a difference in the playoffs and hasn't really stepped up.

jojo
08-24-2010, 12:53 PM
I disagree 1000%.

Stats do not = stats in all cases. People want to take Janish's numbers and throw them around and say that he is worth x and Cabrera is worth y, when that is a very flawed comparison. Especially when you have a small sample size and tag a few AAA level pitchers, those numbers can shift pretty dramatically.

Janish faced another legit pitcher last night and went 0-3. Again, not saying that he will not ever bang a few around the park against a stud. I'm just saying that he has had a number of chances to show that he can make a difference in the playoffs and hasn't really stepped up.

I think a stats-based case would sound more like this-based upon everything we know about Janish, it's unlikely he'd maintain his current level of production when facing any group of major league caliber pitchers for prolonged periods.

jojo
08-24-2010, 01:05 PM
It's about 230 extra pitches per 600 ab's, so it's not minuscule, nor amazing either. IIRC Janish is also having his best season for pitches seen, so at this juncture it's more an anomaly than truism.

That's barely one 18 inning start by Harang.... :cool:

jojo
08-24-2010, 01:07 PM
Do I? I don't know. But Orlando Cabrera hasn't been so hot in the playoffs.

2009: 2-for-13 with the Twins; 0 XBH
2008: 2-for-16 with the Sox; 0 XBH
2007: 3-for-12 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a double)
2005: 4-for-20 with the Angels: 1 XBH (a homer)
2004: 17-for-60 with the Red Sox: 4 XBH (4 doubles)

CAREER: 28-for-121 (.231) with 6 XBH (.298 Slugging)

Obviously sample sizes are still an issue, but there's a track record there of not performing well. So if we're talking about whether Janish would do well... hard to say. However, the alternative hasn't been stellar in that setting.

As snark goes, this post shows real promise... Well played Mauer. :cool:

bucksfan2
08-24-2010, 01:12 PM
I understand your line of thought.

But Cabrera never had that kind of experience until he was given the chance.

I believe now is a fine time for Janish to gain some of that kind of experience.

And Janish is getting some experience. You have to learn to crawl before you walk. Its not a shot at Janish just more the reality that the pressure is going to be amped up over the last 6 weeks of the season. The Reds are already green enough when it comes to meaningful baseball in August, let alone September.

Janish current second half line is .250/.321/.361. To me this does not scream "play me" or "I deserve to be played." To me its more of a realization that while Janish may be the future at SS, Cabrera is the current SS. I don't see that changing one bit when he is fully healthy.

Brutus
08-24-2010, 01:31 PM
I disagree 1000%.

Stats do not = stats in all cases. People want to take Janish's numbers and throw them around and say that he is worth x and Cabrera is worth y, when that is a very flawed comparison. Especially when you have a small sample size and tag a few AAA level pitchers, those numbers can shift pretty dramatically.

Janish faced another legit pitcher last night and went 0-3. Again, not saying that he will not ever bang a few around the park against a stud. I'm just saying that he has had a number of chances to show that he can make a difference in the playoffs and hasn't really stepped up.

Questioning the staying power of Janish is fair, and no statistical argument is strong enough yet to support, with any amount of certainty, the likelihood he'll continue to hit well.

However, as flawed as a statistical argument is to this point, so too is using the random sampling of who's he's faced and who he's done well against. There is simply not enough of a base to on one hand say the stats can't back him up, then on the other hand say the stats show he's not fared well against good pitching.

Using Cain as an example... you're citing Janish's game against him as another point. Thing is, he his a deep fly early in the game, then hit a blistered line drive right at the left fielder, and succumbed to a strikeout, but not before he had a 7-pitch at-bat. Yes, 0-3 isn't anything to write home about, but he didn't exactly look overwhelmed last night.

But as I said before, what we know we're likely to get out of Cabrera doesn't seem like a better alternative. He hit 705 the last two seasons and is down to 641 this year. He doesn't have a very good playoff track record, if we're using that criteria, and doesn't field the ball as well as Janish. Cabrera is established, but we could knock him for some of the same things -- other than the fact we know how he performs in those situations and it's not all that great.

Chip R
08-24-2010, 01:42 PM
Janish faced another legit pitcher last night and went 0-3. Again, not saying that he will not ever bang a few around the park against a stud. I'm just saying that he has had a number of chances to show that he can make a difference in the playoffs and hasn't really stepped up.


If he did get some hits against a "legit" pitcher, would you just dismiss it as "small sample size?"

Razor Shines
08-24-2010, 01:43 PM
Janish current second half line is .250/.321/.361. To me this does not scream "play me" or "I deserve to be played." To me its more of a realization that while Janish may be the future at SS, Cabrera is the current SS. I don't see that changing one bit when he is fully healthy.

You mean 82 PAs? That second half? Go back two previous days and his "2nd half" OPS is .797. Looks like a slump to me. So his slump or "2nd half" is still slightly better than OC's entire season, couple that with the fact that Janish is superior on D and I think there's an argument for why Janish should start most of the games at short for the remainder.

RedsManRick
08-24-2010, 01:54 PM
I disagree 1000%.

Stats do not = stats in all cases. People want to take Janish's numbers and throw them around and say that he is worth x and Cabrera is worth y, when that is a very flawed comparison. Especially when you have a small sample size and tag a few AAA level pitchers, those numbers can shift pretty dramatically.

Janish faced another legit pitcher last night and went 0-3. Again, not saying that he will not ever bang a few around the park against a stud. I'm just saying that he has had a number of chances to show that he can make a difference in the playoffs and hasn't really stepped up.

And yet your approach to dealing with small sample sizes provided by others is to use an even small sample size. 0-3 is a stat. You aren't telling me anything using scouting assessment of his physical ability to hit good pitching -- nothing qualitative. You aren't talking about his poor approach, falling behind in the count, making poor contact, etc. -- the sorts of things that could actually give some insight, in limited observation, in to his ability to hit good pitching. You're just giving me an extremely small sample of batting average. Even 5 games like that tells us just basically nothing.

Fine, you've "observed" that he hasn't stepped it up (e.g. gotten hits) in his few recent chances. I won't argue that. But you aren't actually using observations about his ability -- you're using stats. As soon as you try to use that as an input in to an assessment of his actual ability to hit good pitching, you're in trouble. Your observation, as you've stated it, is completely valid and utterly meaningless.

If you can show me how each guy has performed, in as large a sample as you can find, against a quality of pitcher that you can define (say, OPS against < .750), I'm game for this discussion. But citing batting average in a few games is just a weaker version of the type of argument you're trying to refute.

bucksfan2
08-24-2010, 02:18 PM
Using Cain as an example... you're citing Janish's game against him as another point. Thing is, he his a deep fly early in the game, then hit a blistered line drive right at the left fielder, and succumbed to a strikeout, but not before he had a 7-pitch at-bat. Yes, 0-3 isn't anything to write home about, but he didn't exactly look overwhelmed last night.

How about the sawed off hit that lands just over the infielder's head? How about the bloop hit that really shouldn't be. Those things happen in baseball and the tend to normalized throughout the season. So an 0-3 night is an 0-3 night.


But as I said before, what we know we're likely to get out of Cabrera doesn't seem like a better alternative. He hit 705 the last two seasons and is down to 641 this year. He doesn't have a very good playoff track record, if we're using that criteria, and doesn't field the ball as well as Janish. Cabrera is established, but we could knock him for some of the same things -- other than the fact we know how he performs in those situations and it's not all that great.

The issue right now isn't the playoffs, its getting to the playoffs. Cabrera has been in pennant races every year since 04, Janish has not. Janish isn't Hanley Ramirez or Tulo. He isn't a difference maker with the bat and in reality you could make the argument that its a pretty much an overall wash when comparing he and Cabrera. If that is so then I am going with the guy with pennant race experience 10 out of 10 times.

westofyou
08-24-2010, 02:21 PM
From BJ Online



OC

AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 153 41 2 10 .268 .677
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 95 22 1 9 .232 .592
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 91 25 0 11 .275 .635
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 77 20 0 7 .260 .637


Janish

Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 39 6 2 4 .154 .566
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 26 7 0 1 .269 .580
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 38 12 1 6 .316 .882
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 23 9 1 7 .391 1.070

Brutus
08-24-2010, 02:25 PM
How about the sawed off hit that lands just over the infielder's head? How about the bloop hit that really shouldn't be. Those things happen in baseball and the tend to normalized throughout the season. So an 0-3 night is an 0-3 night.


Yeah? And?

Not to be snide, but that's kind of the point. You can't use the 0-3 night to support the argument Janish can't hit good pitchers.

Also, as I said once already, I wasn't the one that brought up the playoffs. I'm not that concerned with that aspect right now. But if we're talking about getting there, I would still much rather run out Janish right now.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 06:06 PM
From BJ Online



OC

AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 153 41 2 10 .268 .677
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 95 22 1 9 .232 .592
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 91 25 0 11 .275 .635
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 77 20 0 7 .260 .637


Janish

Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 39 6 2 4 .154 .566
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 26 7 0 1 .269 .580
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 38 12 1 6 .316 .882
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 23 9 1 7 .391 1.070



Yeah, makes sense. Thanks for this post.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 06:07 PM
Yeah? And?

Not to be snide, but that's kind of the point. You can't use the 0-3 night to support the argument Janish can't hit good pitchers.

Also, as I said once already, I wasn't the one that brought up the playoffs. I'm not that concerned with that aspect right now. But if we're talking about getting there, I would still much rather run out Janish right now.

No one is saying that the 0-3 night is evidence that he can't hit good pitchers. Just like a 3-3 night wouldn't be evidence that he can. It's just his sample size geting larger.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 06:16 PM
And yet your approach to dealing with small sample sizes provided by others is to use an even small sample size. 0-3 is a stat. You aren't telling me anything using scouting assessment of his physical ability to hit good pitching -- nothing qualitative. You aren't talking about his poor approach, falling behind in the count, making poor contact, etc. -- the sorts of things that could actually give some insight, in limited observation, in to his ability to hit good pitching. You're just giving me an extremely small sample of batting average. Even 5 games like that tells us just basically nothing.

Fine, you've "observed" that he hasn't stepped it up (e.g. gotten hits) in his few recent chances. I won't argue that. But you aren't actually using observations about his ability -- you're using stats. As soon as you try to use that as an input in to an assessment of his actual ability to hit good pitching, you're in trouble. Your observation, as you've stated it, is completely valid and utterly meaningless.

If you can show me how each guy has performed, in as large a sample as you can find, against a quality of pitcher that you can define (say, OPS against < .750), I'm game for this discussion. But citing batting average in a few games is just a weaker version of the type of argument you're trying to refute.

See WOY's post below yours..is this what you are looking for?

But I'm not a scout nor do I play one on this board. I haven't been watching tape of Janish vs top tier pitchers. I haven't been breaking down each of his ABs this season and posting them on a blog. I'm a Reds fan and want to see them do well. From my general observation, I don't have that much confidence in Janish vs the upper crust of the league. I have more confidence in Cabrera against guys like Oswalt, Halladay, Wainwright, Carpenter and other likely studs that they will be facing in October (God willing). I can't see why anyone would feel otherwise. We are down to the final weeks of the season and this isn't time to find out if Janish can hit better pitching. This is the time to win ballgames.

You can feel however you wish...but bottom line is that Janish isn't the guy you want playing SS in October. I realize that this is blasphemy to some (especially since that group doesn't have UZR to bully Cabrera around with anymore), but it is true.

Brutus
08-24-2010, 06:18 PM
No one is saying that the 0-3 night is evidence that he can't hit good pitchers. Just like a 3-3 night wouldn't be evidence that he can. It's just his sample size geting larger.

But, and I hate to harp on this, Cabrera has a pretty big sample size and it's not very good. And the reason Cabrera has such a large sample--superior defense--is no longer as superior to justify keeping him in the lineup in lieu of someone who has his old traits.

I don't know where Paul Janish is going to end up as a baseline OPS when the sample size music stops playing. Will he be left without a chair? Stuck with the hot potato? I am certainly not saying he's going to OPS .800. What I am saying, sample size be damned, I think he's proving himself to be a better option than Orlando Cabrera given the entire picture.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 08:24 PM
But, and I hate to harp on this, Cabrera has a pretty big sample size and it's not very good. And the reason Cabrera has such a large sample--superior defense--is no longer as superior to justify keeping him in the lineup in lieu of someone who has his old traits.

I really don't get what the argument is for Janish over Cabrera. Cabrera has been a solid fielder and, by some measures, has been the 5th best fielding SS in the majors this season. By all measurements, historical trends and everything else, all things being equal he is a better offensive producer than Janish. He has played in the postseason and from everything we hear he is a great leader on the field.

That's my position. The funny trend I have seen is the common arguments against Cabrera this season. First it was his -36 UZR. Then that straightened out and he got hurt and started to slump and Janish was being pimped with this new found approach and how he bulked up this offseason and all that. Then Cabrera started hitting better after the break and then got hurt. Janish had some good games vs some less than stellar opponents and now he was greatly improved offensively and should maybe be the starter the rest of the season. Then he started to slow at the plate and the argument is now maybe he should start a few times per week to keep Cabrera fresh. And now we are at the point that the pitches per PA is being brought up as a big deal. You know it's dire when that is one of the key arguments.

Cabrera should start for the rest of the season and that's that. I would understand the argument for going into next season with him in the fold and being able to structure the team around his plusses and minuses, but making him the starter makes no sense at this stage.


I don't know where Paul Janish is going to end up as a baseline OPS when the sample size music stops playing. Will he be left without a chair? Stuck with the hot potato? I am certainly not saying he's going to OPS .800. What I am saying, sample size be damned, I think he's proving himself to be a better option than Orlando Cabrera given the entire picture.

Forget about where Janish is going to end up. Figure out who gives you the best chance to win in October.

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2010, 08:27 PM
The argument is simple. By some measures Caberera has been a mediocre to poor fielder, while Janish appears to be well above average.

The other part, offense, has the argument that Cabrera has been about as bad as we can reasonably expect Janish to be, and not expect much of a recovery due to Cabrera being old and the potential of diminished skills.

I think at this point, each has done there part to earn split duty (Cabrera's track record vs. Janish's season performance). Play the guy who appears to be helping the team most down the stretch.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 08:36 PM
The argument is simple. By some measures Caberera has been a mediocre to poor fielder, while Janish appears to be well above average.

The other part, offense, has the argument that Cabrera has been about as bad as we can reasonably expect Janish to be, and not expect much of a recovery due to Cabrera being old and the potential of diminished skills.

I think at this point, each has done there part to earn split duty (Cabrera's track record vs. Janish's season performance). Play the guy who appears to be helping the team most down the stretch.

Could you elaborate on some of those assumptions?

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2010, 09:08 PM
Could you elaborate on some of those assumptions?

I don't think I'm making any assumptions. To me, there are a number of defensive metrics, that have graded Cabrera at mediocre to poor, and Janish at mediocre to great. The main opinion on Redszone from a scouting perspective is that Cabrera to below average, and Janish closer to great.

From an offensive standpoint, Cabrera has struggled this year. You could argue that he has been slightly unlucky due to BAPIP or HR/FB for example, but at the same time, we could be talking about more of an age regression possibility. Both sides would have a point and could be interpreted differently.

Janish on the other hand has provided from a statistical side, showed okay contact rates and good plate patience which has resulted in good on base skills. At the same time one could interpret that to small sample size and considering his poor track record is likely to regress.

There's never a conclusive answer. To me, conisdering each of the options, my opinion would be that Janish will regress from an offensive standpoint, but from what I have seen over 2+ seasons, he's legit defensively.

Considering Cabrera, when talking about a SS, I tend to think the worst when the age starts perking up over 35. As such, to me it makes more sense that Cabrera is decling, at least in the field, and likely at the plate. I think Cabrera is a worse player than his career norms, while Janish is probably at his peak. As such, I'd give Janish a chance to prove his small sample size is real rather than hope that Cabrera can get his 36 year old body to play like he's 30.

To me there's just a better chance that the young guy playing well can support the stats than the old guy can fool them. In the end, I think they both have similar offensive issues (Janish in the power department, Cabrera on base) to the point that the difference is negligible. Janish is almost certainly a better defensive player which makes me again, want to give him an extended look.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 09:11 PM
I don't think I'm making any assumptions. To me, there are a number of defensive metrics, that have graded Cabrera at mediocre to poor, and Janish at mediocre to great. The main opinion on Redszone from a scouting perspective is that Cabrera to below average, and Janish closer to great.


Which metrics have him ranked as a poor defender?

And I wouldn't believe everything you hear on this board.

Cedric
08-24-2010, 09:11 PM
Could you elaborate on some of those assumptions?

Name one metric where Cabrera is above Janish. Offensively or defensively.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 09:25 PM
Name one metric where Cabrera is above Janish. Offensively or defensively.

Ridiculous.

Patrick Bateman
08-24-2010, 10:21 PM
[QUOTE=edabbs44;2225190]Which metrics have him ranked as a poor defender?

Well he ranks basically dead last on out of zone plays. Obviously that's only one piece of the pie, but I would think most guys are decent at plays in zone (at the same time Cabrera has graded above average in that reagard.

Overall, regardless of Cabrera vs the World, Janish appears to be better based on both concensus and the stats (note: I admit those 2 might be connected in biased fashion). So Cabrera vs. the World might not matter too much depending on how well you think Cabrera's bat will rebound.

Big Klu
08-24-2010, 11:54 PM
I've been trying to remember WS winning teams that got a SS who finished the year when the current one wasn't good enough, or got injured. So far I have 3 off the top of my head

2004 - Boston - OC showed up
1968 - Tigers bench Oyler and put CF Stanley there in WS
1920 - Indians - Chapman beaned/dies and Joe Sewell arrives

1985 - Royals - Buddy Biancalana replaces Onix Concepcion

Razor Shines
08-25-2010, 01:31 AM
Ridiculous.

I know, I can't think of one either.

Ron Madden
08-25-2010, 04:30 AM
And Janish is getting some experience. You have to learn to crawl before you walk. Its not a shot at Janish just more the reality that the pressure is going to be amped up over the last 6 weeks of the season. The Reds are already green enough when it comes to meaningful baseball in August, let alone September.

Janish current second half line is .250/.321/.361. To me this does not scream "play me" or "I deserve to be played." To me its more of a realization that while Janish may be the future at SS, Cabrera is the current SS. I don't see that changing one bit when he is fully healthy.


Yep. Any young player must crawl before they walk, the good ones will soon break into a run but no matter how good they are they can't out run Father Time.

I'm not saying experience isn't a valuable commodity. In my honest opinion Cabrera has done a fine job on defense for his age but even OCab's staunches supporters must admit that Janish has more range, a better arm, and better discipline at the plate.

I'm not saying Paul Janish is the next Barry Larkin, just saying I think he's better than Cabrera right now. It's just my honest opinion and that's all I have left to say other than thanks for a civil discussion. :beerme:

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 06:04 AM
Name one metric where Cabrera is above Janish. Offensively or defensively.


I know, I can't think of one either.

Give each a full season worth of PAs and my money is on Cabrera at the plate.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 07:19 AM
[QUOTE=edabbs44;2225190]Which metrics have him ranked as a poor defender?

Well he ranks basically dead last on out of zone plays. Obviously that's only one piece of the pie, but I would think most guys are decent at plays in zone (at the same time Cabrera has graded above average in that reagard.

Overall, regardless of Cabrera vs the World, Janish appears to be better based on both concensus and the stats (note: I admit those 2 might be connected in biased fashion). So Cabrera vs. the World might not matter too much depending on how well you think Cabrera's bat will rebound.

Isn't out of zone plays like one piece of the puzzle making up a stat like UZR, which has him ranked 5th best in the majors this year? Kind of like saying that a guy with a .900 OPS is a poor hitter because his OBP is only .325.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 08:31 AM
Janish against non pathetic teams since OC went on the DL:

.118//.227/.147

over 40 PAs. Could be random. Or could be the sign of a guy who might not be able to hit good major league pitching.

nate
08-25-2010, 08:40 AM
To be fair, the defensive metrics I've studied have O-Cab as average to good with Janish as good to outstanding.

To get back to the thread premise a bit, I still have yet to see a good reason why a platoon of Janish and Cabrera can't be good for both players. O-Cab gets some time to rest up and make sure he doesn't re-injure himself and Janish gets steady game time.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 08:56 AM
To be fair, the defensive metrics I've studied have O-Cab as average to good with Janish as good to outstanding.

To get back to the thread premise a bit, I still have yet to see a good reason why a platoon of Janish and Cabrera can't be good for both players. O-Cab gets some time to rest up and make sure he doesn't re-injure himself and Janish gets steady game time.

How would you platoon them?

TRF
08-25-2010, 09:23 AM
How would you platoon them?

Simple. Stop me if you have heard this before.

Once OCab returns, Janish gets a start at SS once a week. He also gets a start once a week at 3B. He spells BP at 2B at the manager's discretion. Janish should be first in line for any start to the left of 1B.

It ain't rocket science.

Razor Shines
08-25-2010, 10:41 AM
Simple. Stop me if you have heard this before.

Once OCab returns, Janish gets a start at SS once a week. He also gets a start once a week at 3B. He spells BP at 2B at the manager's discretion. Janish should be first in line for any start to the left of 1B.

It ain't rocket science.

It won't happen but I'd much rather reverse their roles in that scenario. Janish starts 5 times a week at short and OC spells him and the IF spots once a week. Your way we still have a worst (not saying he's horrible but between him and Janish OC is our worst) defensive SS playing 5 times a week.

Chip R
08-25-2010, 10:56 AM
1985 - Royals - Buddy Biancalana replaces Onix Concepcion


I'm sure that was onyxpected. ;)

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 11:00 AM
Simple. Stop me if you have heard this before.

Once OCab returns, Janish gets a start at SS once a week. He also gets a start once a week at 3B. He spells BP at 2B at the manager's discretion. Janish should be first in line for any start to the left of 1B.

It ain't rocket science.

That doesn't sound like a platoon. Does it?

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 11:46 AM
It won't happen but I'd much rather reverse their roles in that scenario. Janish starts 5 times a week at short and OC spells him and the IF spots once a week. Your way we still have a worst (not saying he's horrible but between him and Janish OC is our worst) defensive SS playing 5 times a week.

And you don't worry about offense?

Razor Shines
08-25-2010, 04:17 PM
And you don't worry about offense?

I'm very worried about OC's offense starting 5 times a week.

Cabrera has been bad this season, he's been bad at the plate the last two seasons. He may just be a sub .700 bat at this point in his career, Janish may be as well, but Janish is the far superior defender. I don't know why you keep bringing up offense when OC has been awful this season. Plus, Dusty bats him second, Janish usually hits 8th.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 05:21 PM
I'm very worried about OC's offense starting 5 times a week.

Cabrera has been bad this season, he's been bad at the plate the last two seasons. He may just be a sub .700 bat at this point in his career, Janish may be as well, but Janish is the far superior defender. I don't know why you keep bringing up offense when OC has been awful this season. Plus, Dusty bats him second, Janish usually hits 8th.

OCab might be a sub 700 guy, but if he is it is probably right under. Janish might be a sub .600 guy. There's a difference.

Brutus
08-25-2010, 05:26 PM
OCab might be a sub 700 guy, but if he is it is probably right under. Janish might be a sub .600 guy. There's a difference.

Sub .600 guy? He's a career .629 guy and that includes his dismal rookie year and first half of 2009. And it seems he's, at very least, a much improved hitter than he was when he first broke in.

I don't see any reason to conclude he's a sub .600 guy. I can see 650-700... but I don't see much lower than that.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 06:00 PM
Sub .600 guy? He's a career .629 guy and that includes his dismal rookie year and first half of 2009. And it seems he's, at very least, a much improved hitter than he was when he first broke in.

I don't see any reason to conclude he's a sub .600 guy. I can see 650-700... but I don't see much lower than that.

I guess this is the source of our disconnect. Janish was a mid .600s guy in AA and AAA. He is a .600ish guy in his major league experience up to this year. This year he has a few good games vs some soft competition and now everything he has done in his career should be forgotton? Look at what he has done vs legit competition since he took over. He is what he is until proven otherwise and I don't think he has done much to make us ignore his track record.

Brutus
08-25-2010, 06:01 PM
I guess this is the source of our disconnect. Janish was a mid .600s guy in AA and AAA. He is a .600ish guy in his major league experience up to this year. This year he has a few good games vs some soft competition and now everything he has done in his career should be forgotton? Look at what he has done vs legit competition since he took over. He is what he is until proven otherwise and I don't think he has done much to make us ignore his track record.

I think you're parsing such games against 'soft' competition and treating that with undue weight. Also, those games do count, do they not? After all, those games are part of the schedule. They all count against the averages. Not sure why those should be discounted.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 06:23 PM
I think you're parsing such games against 'soft' competition and treating that with undue weight. Also, those games do count, do they not? After all, those games are part of the schedule. They all count against the averages. Not sure why those should be discounted.

Well we are talking about Janish taking time away from Cabrera down the stretch and, God willing, the playoffs. That is the context in which I am speaking. And I'm not sure of how many minor league equivalent pitchers they will see in the playoffs, but my guess would be very little.

Brutus
08-25-2010, 06:26 PM
Well we are talking about Janish taking time away from Cabrera down the stretch and, God willing, the playoffs. That is the context in which I am speaking. And I'm not sure of how many minor league equivalent pitchers they will see in the playoffs, but my guess would be very little.

I realize that with this response, the argument will have come full circle, so I will depart with this:

Janish would be taking at-bats from someone that has struggled to be a 700 hitter the last few years and seems to be on the decline. He's also proven to not be very good in the postseason, which is a crux of your position. So given what we know of who he's taking at-bats away from, it makes more sense to go with someone with better offensive upside, especially given they are almost unanimously considered an overall better defensive player.

I'll take the unknown over the known, since the known in this case is known to have some major flaws.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 06:42 PM
I realize that with this response, the argument will have come full circle, so I will depart with this:

Janish would be taking at-bats from someone that has struggled to be a 700 hitter the last few years and seems to be on the decline. He's also proven to not be very good in the postseason, which is a crux of your position. So given what we know of who he's taking at-bats away from, it makes more sense to go with someone with better offensive upside, especially given they are almost unanimously considered an overall better defensive player.

I'll take the unknown over the known, since the known in this case is known to have some major flaws.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. See you in another thread.

nemesis
08-25-2010, 08:18 PM
Also if you factor in since Cabrera went down Janish has OPS'd .770 ~ If he is still OPSing .750+ after this series, yes, he deserves to keep his spot.

OPSing .780 and had the biggest hit of the game in the 9th. He deserves his job.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 08:27 PM
OPSing .780 and had the biggest hit of the game in the 9th. He deserves his job.

Janish is the new Heisey. Remember when Heisey was the man? Should be starting all the time? Needs to play everyday?

Janish had a huge hit in the 9th (sucked that I couldn't watch up until the 11th), and I couldn't be happier for the guy. I wanted to hug him when I saw that he tied it up.

But one game isn't going to really make me change my opinion. One game is just one game.

RedEye
08-25-2010, 08:29 PM
Janish is the new Heisey. Remember when Heisey was the man? Should be starting all the time? Needs to play everyday?


I still think Heisey is the man, should be starting all the time and needs to play every day.

Janish, too.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 08:37 PM
I still think Heisey is the man, should be starting all the time and needs to play every day.

Janish, too.

Everyone has their opinion.

Here is one interesting stat that I wonder if anyone can shed some light on. Is this random or could it be something else? It is pretty friggin wild.

Heisey OPS

1st AB vs SP - .341
2nd AB vs SP - .323
3rd AB vs SP - .899

1st AB vs RP - 1.294

Janish OPS

1st AB vs SP - .594
2nd AB vs SP - .542
3rd AB vs SP - 1.086

1st AB vs RP - .754

Could it be preparation by the opposition? Complete randomness? Problems with pitchers who may have more than 2 quality pitches?

Discuss...would be interested to hear opinions.

nemesis
08-25-2010, 08:55 PM
Janish is the new Heisey. Remember when Heisey was the man? Should be starting all the time? Needs to play everyday?

Janish had a huge hit in the 9th (sucked that I couldn't watch up until the 11th), and I couldn't be happier for the guy. I wanted to hug him when I saw that he tied it up.

But one game isn't going to really make me change my opinion. One game is just one game.

Except Heisey keeps getting exposed more and more. Janish continues to produce. He raised his OPS in SanFran. Janish is Janish not Chris and now has more AB's than Heisey. Janish makes more contact, takes more walks. Like comparing Votto to Stubbs.

Cedric
08-25-2010, 09:09 PM
Everyone has their opinion.

Here is one interesting stat that I wonder if anyone can shed some light on. Is this random or could it be something else? It is pretty friggin wild.

Heisey OPS

1st AB vs SP - .341
2nd AB vs SP - .323
3rd AB vs SP - .899

1st AB vs RP - 1.294

Janish OPS

1st AB vs SP - .594
2nd AB vs SP - .542
3rd AB vs SP - 1.086

1st AB vs RP - .754

Could it be preparation by the opposition? Complete randomness? Problems with pitchers who may have more than 2 quality pitches?

Discuss...would be interested to hear opinions.

One game doesn't matter now? I've heard over and over after he gets beat by good pitching in one game. Now it doesn't matter? Ok.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 09:41 PM
One game doesn't matter now? I've heard over and over after he gets beat by good pitching in one game. Now it doesn't matter? Ok.

You don't hear it over and over. You may see it over and over, but I'm not promoting each game one by one.

edabbs44
08-25-2010, 09:49 PM
Except Heisey keeps getting exposed more and more. Janish continues to produce. He raised his OPS in SanFran. Janish is Janish not Chris and now has more AB's than Heisey. Janish makes more contact, takes more walks. Like comparing Votto to Stubbs.

I think that I'm a fair guy, but he raised his OPS 4 pts in a series where 57 runs were scored. And that was after a series where it dropped 39 points. I'm not sure that the 4 pt bump is anything to get excited about.

His OPS is down 86 points over the last 3 weeks and down 35 over the last 6 games.

I still am not a believer in him versus solid starting pitching and these last 6 games did nothing to help that argument for him.

Ron Madden
08-26-2010, 03:33 AM
I think that I'm a fair guy, but he raised his OPS 4 pts in a series where 57 runs were scored. And that was after a series where it dropped 39 points. I'm not sure that the 4 pt bump is anything to get excited about.

His OPS is down 86 points over the last 3 weeks and down 35 over the last 6 games.

I still am not a believer in him versus solid starting pitching and these last 6 games did nothing to help that argument for him.


No offense but it sure seems like you are just being stubborn now.

You are trying to make a point with statistics but they are irrelevant statistics.

nemesis
08-26-2010, 03:53 AM
I think that I'm a fair guy, but he raised his OPS 4 pts in a series where 57 runs were scored. And that was after a series where it dropped 39 points. I'm not sure that the 4 pt bump is anything to get excited about.

His OPS is down 86 points over the last 3 weeks and down 35 over the last 6 games.

I still am not a believer in him versus solid starting pitching and these last 6 games did nothing to help that argument for him.


See now that is a blatant misuse of statistical information. Using a real small sample size to justify a point.

Now pre-August Janish had 63 AB's - In August alone he has had 70.

His pre starting slash was 63 AB's - .370/.413/.783 with a .270 BA

His post starting slash after his last 70 AB's - .366/.414/.780 with a .278 BA

So he hasn't has this huge fall off you've claimed. He is walking a bit less, hitting a bit more and maintained his power #'s even though he played his last 9 games out of 20 started in big ballparks in the West and 11 out of 20 on the Road.

Reds are 13 - 7 in his 20 games as a starter.

His slash line in those 20 games: .363/.414/.777 with a .286 BA

Just for reference and reminder Cabrera's Slash: .302/.339/.641 with a .260 BA

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 05:31 AM
No offense but it sure seems like you are just being stubborn now.

You are trying to make a point with statistics but they are irrelevant statistics.

I was responding to the post telling me that he upped his OPS four points in the SF series. Which is way more irrelevant than what I said.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 05:38 AM
See now that is a blatant misuse of statistical information. Using a real small sample size to justify a point.

Now pre-August Janish had 63 AB's - In August alone he has had 70.

His pre starting slash was 63 AB's - .370/.413/.783 with a .270 BA

His post starting slash after his last 70 AB's - .366/.414/.780 with a .278 BA

So he hasn't has this huge fall off you've claimed. He is walking a bit less, hitting a bit more and maintained his power #'s even though he played his last 9 games out of 20 started in big ballparks in the West and 11 out of 20 on the Road.

Reds are 13 - 7 in his 20 games as a starter.

His slash line in those 20 games: .363/.414/.777 with a .286 BA

Just for reference and reminder Cabrera's Slash: .302/.339/.641 with a .260 BA

If you want to talk about what this thread has been about, then let's talk about that. Personally, right now I don't care what Janish has done versus Pitt and Arizona. We are talking about him taking time away from Cabrera through October. If he cannot prove that he can hit names like Wainwright, Carpenter, Oswalt, etc, then I'm not sure why we think that his other numbers are meaningful. When you have as small of a sample size as Cabrera does, a few big games vs lesser pitching can help your slash line a good amount. He has done absolutely nothing versus the better starters that he has seen since Cabrera got hurt. That is a fact.

Here is my question...do you think that him not posting good stats versus those guys is random, "bad luck" or do you think that maybe he does struggle against front line starters?

nemesis
08-26-2010, 05:59 AM
If you want to talk about what this thread has been about, then let's talk about that. Personally, right now I don't care what Janish has done versus Pitt and Arizona. We are talking about him taking time away from Cabrera through October. If he cannot prove that he can hit names like Wainwright, Carpenter, Oswalt, etc, then I'm not sure why we think that his other numbers are meaningful. When you have as small of a sample size as Cabrera does, a few big games vs lesser pitching can help your slash line a good amount. He has done absolutely nothing versus the better starters that he has seen since Cabrera got hurt. That is a fact.

Here is my question...do you think that him not posting good stats versus those guys is random, "bad luck" or do you think that maybe he does struggle against front line starters?


Everyone struggles against those guys. It's why they have sub 3 ERA's and are considered ACES. Fact of the matter is Cabrera struggles worse against the same caliber of pitching. Look back at his playoff stats. Takes less pitches, gets on board less times. Is a out machine with lesser range and arm strength. What is the advantage to having him on the field?

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 06:51 AM
Everyone struggles against those guys. It's why they have sub 3 ERA's and are considered ACES. Fact of the matter is Cabrera struggles worse against the same caliber of pitching. Look back at his playoff stats. Takes less pitches, gets on board less times. Is a out machine with lesser range and arm strength. What is the advantage to having him on the field?

He doesn't get run over by quality starting pitching. He is viewed by the team as a positive influence. He is a solid defender and some metrics have him ranked as the 5th best defensive SS this season in the majors. He has been in these situations before. He doesn't get run over by quality starting pitching. He had a bad 6 weeks or so that was caused by injuries, luck or something else which materially skewed his numbers, and when he returned from the break he was playing much better, so maybe using his numbers against him at this point isn't the best thing to do since they are generally out of line with everything we know about him. He doesn't get run over by quality starting pitching.

I really can't say that enough. The guy just got an audition versus playoff style pitching against Stl, LA, SF and Fla and pretty much nothing. The fact that he sees .33 more pitches per PA than Cabrera means nothing to me in October. The fact that Cabrera gets on base less this season may not even mean anything since we are talking about very small sample sizes from a guy who really hasn't ever shown the ability to do much at the plate.

For me, Janish would need to absolutely steal the job from Cabrera in order for me to buy into him starting. His performance hasn't justified it for me.

nate
08-26-2010, 08:26 AM
Pete, Yaz, Hank Aaron have the most PAs at the big league level. Even these guys don't have definitive samples to say what their true ability is vs. individual pitchers. Of course, it would take some 50-60 baseball seasons by both the hitter and pitcher for them to really say one way or another so it's best to use the largest and most recent sample to approach the player's true ability.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 08:59 AM
Pete, Yaz, Hank Aaron have the most PAs at the big league level. Even these guys don't have definitive samples to say what their true ability is vs. individual pitchers. Of course, it would take some 50-60 baseball seasons by both the hitter and pitcher for them to really say one way or another so it's best to use the largest and most recent sample to approach the player's true ability.

Right...so if we are talking about supplanting a starter for the stretch run and playoffs, why wouldn't we take into account the fact that replacement has not shown the ability to hit top pitching? Small samples are easily skewed and when that small sample includes performances against lesser competition that truly skewed the data, why wouldn't we take that into acct?

jojo
08-26-2010, 09:42 AM
I really haven't chimed in on this discussion because I think it's been poking at small samples when really the appropriate thing to be doing is comparing estimates of each player's true talent in order to decide who would be best in a playoff scenario.

But since one argument against Janish was that he does better against poor pitchers, I thought this comparison might be fun:

Votto 2010


AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 158 42 8 21 0.266 0.854
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 111 37 7 25 0.333 0.968
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 86 26 7 19 0.302 1.074
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 76 34 7 21 0.447 1.325


Cabrera 2010


AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 151 38 2 10 0.252 0.634
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 98 25 1 9 0.255 0.653
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 91 25 0 11 0.275 0.635
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 76 20 0 7 0.263 0.645


Janish 2010


AB H HR RBI Avg OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 44 8 2 4 0.182 0.591
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 24 5 0 1 0.208 0.494
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 37 12 1 6 0.324 0.904
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 23 9 1 7 0.391 1.07

Which one is not like the other? :cool:

Really all hitters show a similar line-they generally do better against poorer pitchers just like all pitchers tend to have better numbers in games they win versus games they lose. It's not really that big of a tell IMHO.

Maybe the absence of such a trend is more informative?

nate
08-26-2010, 10:08 AM
Really all hitters show a similar line-they generally do better against poorer pitchers just like all pitchers tend to have better numbers in games they win versus games they lose. It's not really that big of a tell IMHO.

Do you mean to tell me that hitters tend to do worse against good pitchers?

Dude...

:cool:

BRM
08-26-2010, 10:11 AM
Do you mean to tell me that hitters tend to do worse against good pitchers?

Dude...

:cool:

I wonder if that's why they are considered good pitchers? Because hitters get fewer hits against them. Interesting.

bucksfan2
08-26-2010, 11:52 AM
Janish is the new Heisey. Remember when Heisey was the man? Should be starting all the time? Needs to play everyday?

Janish had a huge hit in the 9th (sucked that I couldn't watch up until the 11th), and I couldn't be happier for the guy. I wanted to hug him when I saw that he tied it up.

But one game isn't going to really make me change my opinion. One game is just one game.

Interesting that Heisey is brought up. This was posted on Lance's blog and I thought it was telling.

Heisey vs:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 10 for 21, .476 avg, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 K's....4 mulit-hit games
Everybody Else: 22 for 97, .227 avg, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 30 K's.....4 mulit-hit games

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 12:17 PM
Thanks for that Jojo. I'm not really getting the point though.

Of course players generally do worse vs better pitchers. Not really cutting edge stuff. But all players don't necessary become useless against better pitching. Which is what Janish has shown up to this point.

Throwing around his stats YTD tells us nothing about what he may be able to provide in October. Those games vs Pitt, Zona and the Cubs (last, next to last and third to last in NL era, respectively) aren't going to do much when he is facing Halladay in the first rd.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 12:22 PM
Interesting that Heisey is brought up. This was posted on Lance's blog and I thought it was telling.

Heisey vs:
Pittsburgh Pirates: 10 for 21, .476 avg, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 K's....4 mulit-hit games
Everybody Else: 22 for 97, .227 avg, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 30 K's.....4 mulit-hit games

Yeah, that's not a good thing. Especially since Pitt was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in early May.

jojo
08-26-2010, 12:28 PM
Thanks for that Jojo. I'm not really getting the point though.

Of course players generally do worse vs better pitchers. Not really cutting edge stuff. But all players don't necessary become useless against better pitching. Which is what Janish has shown up to this point.

Throwing around his stats YTD tells us nothing about what he may be able to provide in October. Those games vs Pitt, Zona and the Cubs (last, next to last and third to last in NL era, respectively) aren't going to do much when he is facing Halladay in the first rd.

Janish is a below average bat so his numbers are going to look worse against a cohort of the games best pitchers than say a bat of Votto's caliber. The comparison was meant to show the trend one would expect.

Really it comes down to this-is the advantage Cabrera's bat might give against Halladay greater than the advantage that Janish's glove might give over the course of a bunch of ground balls?

It's probably much closer to a push IMHO especially since there is reason to doubt that Cabrera's bat offers an advantage given his last 1000 PA's.

Basically Zips suggests a wOBA of .308 for Cabrera the resat of the way and a wOBA of .303 the rest of the way for Janish (that's a 2 run difference over 600 PAs). There is actually a good argument for giving more playing time to Janish in critical situations.

BRM
08-26-2010, 12:56 PM
Throwing around his stats YTD tells us nothing about what he may be able to provide in October. Those games vs Pitt, Zona and the Cubs (last, next to last and third to last in NL era, respectively) aren't going to do much when he is facing Halladay in the first rd.

You could say the same thing about Cabrera. He hasn't exactly lit up good pitchers either.

OnBaseMachine
08-26-2010, 01:04 PM
You could say the same thing about Cabrera. He hasn't exactly lit up good pitchers either.

Yep.

It should probably be mentioned again - Orlando Cabrera has a .641 OPS this season. He's not Hanley Ramirez.

BRM
08-26-2010, 01:06 PM
Yep.

It should probably be mentioned again - Orlando Cabrera has a .641 OPS this season. He's not Hanley Ramirez.

Quite honestly, I wouldn't expect either of them to do much against Halladay in game one of a playoff series. Given that, just go with the better defender of the two.

gonelong
08-26-2010, 01:09 PM
I'm sure that was onyxpected. ;)

oooh, nice one.

GL

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 01:34 PM
You could say the same thing about Cabrera. He hasn't exactly lit up good pitchers either.

He has had good games vs top pitchers. Check the matchups. Janish has been flat out owned vs good pitchers the last few weeks.

Cedric
08-26-2010, 01:36 PM
Brian Wilson is a damn good pitcher. Janish had a tiny hit yesterday against him. If we are going to use small sample sizes and all that.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 01:37 PM
Yep.

It should probably be mentioned again - Orlando Cabrera has a .641 OPS this season. He's not Hanley Ramirez.

Put a good starting pitcher on the mound and compare him to Janish and he starts to resemble Hanley.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 01:38 PM
Brian Wilson is a damn good pitcher. Janish had a tiny hit yesterday against him. If we are going to use small sample sizes and all that.

He did get a hit vs Wilson. A huge hit.

BRM
08-26-2010, 01:42 PM
Put a good starting pitcher on the mound and compare him to Janish and he starts to resemble Hanley.

No, he doesn't. Someone posted the numbers yesterday I believe and it showed both of them pretty equally sucked against good pitchers. Both were around .600 OPS against pitchers with ERA's below 3.50.

None of this consternation really matters because I'm fairly certain OCab is going back to SS as the regular starter once he gets activated. And I won't be losing any sleep over it. The difference between the two isn't enough to make me sweat it.

nemesis
08-26-2010, 01:44 PM
No, he doesn't. Someone posted the numbers yesterday I believe and it showed both of them pretty equally sucked against good pitchers. Both were around .600 OPS against pitchers with ERA's below 3.50.

None of this consternation really matters because I fairly certain OCab is going back to SS as the regular starter once he gets activated.

Correct. The difference is, Janish can actually have productive AB's against avg bullpen guys or starters where as Cabrera will continue to be a big bowl of suck.

bucksfan2
08-26-2010, 01:47 PM
None of this consternation really matters because I fairly certain OCab is going back to SS as the regular starter once he gets activated. And I won't be losing any sleep over it. The difference between the two isn't enough to make me sweat it.

Agree 100% with this. I would also add that with such a small difference between the two I am more inclined to go with someone who has been there before.

westofyou
08-26-2010, 01:51 PM
This info on Heisey shows a nice young guess hitter who gets fooled more once the picthers start to work him



AB H HR RBI Avg OBP Slg OPS
One and done 12 6 1 3 .500 .538 .833 1.372
Short 66 22 5 10 .333 .353 .597 .950
Long 61 10 2 4 .164 .354 .290 .645
7 Up 10 1 0 0 .100 .400 .200 .600



One-pitch plate appearances are One and Done, while 7 Up is plate appearances of seven pitches or more. All plate appearances of three pitches or less (including one and done) are included in “short” at bats, and all plate appearances of four pitches or more are included in “long” at bats.

To give this profile some context, here are the league averages for 2007:

1 and done: .344/.349/.543 .892 OPS
Short(1-3): .301/.317/.467 .784 OPS
Long (4+): .223/.352/.348 .700 OPS
7 Up (7+): .230/.406/.372 .778 OPS

osuceltic
08-26-2010, 03:23 PM
A lot of this is missing the forest for the trees. If the Janish-Cabrera numbers are close -- and I think if we've established anything in this thread, it's that they are close -- then the nod has to go to the guy who has been universally credited as a team leader and on-field catalyst by his teammates. That may not mean anything to you as a fan or message board expert, but it means something to the guys on the field.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 03:49 PM
A lot of this is missing the forest for the trees. If the Janish-Cabrera numbers are close -- and I think if we've established anything in this thread, it's that they are close -- then the nod has to go to the guy who has been universally credited as a team leader and on-field catalyst by his teammates. That may not mean anything to you as a fan or message board expert, but it means something to the guys on the field.

At this juncture, Janish would need to steal the job from Cabrera. And that hasn't happened.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 03:51 PM
Correct. The difference is, Janish can actually have productive AB's against avllpen guys or starters where as Cabrera will continue to be a big bowl of suck.

Huh?

Brutus
08-26-2010, 03:52 PM
At this juncture, Janish would need to steal the job from Cabrera. And that hasn't happened.

It seems, though, more people think that it has than think that it hasn't.

;)

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 04:02 PM
It seems, though, more people think that it has than think that it hasn't.

;)

You know what they say about the masses, correct? :)

if we have learned anything, it's that Redszone can be emotional and quick to pull the trigger from time to time. If the collective RZ were to be hired as the GM, I think it would be pretty funny to watch. Not the results, just the schitzophrenic activity.

jojo
08-26-2010, 04:07 PM
A lot of this is missing the forest for the trees. If the Janish-Cabrera numbers are close -- and I think if we've established anything in this thread, it's that they are close -- then the nod has to go to the guy who has been universally credited as a team leader and on-field catalyst by his teammates. That may not mean anything to you as a fan or message board expert, but it means something to the guys on the field.

Experience would give Cabrera an edge absent a clear cut difference statistically. Cabrera is also hurt though.

Brutus
08-26-2010, 04:27 PM
You know what they say about the masses, correct? :)

if we have learned anything, it's that Redszone can be emotional and quick to pull the trigger from time to time. If the collective RZ were to be hired as the GM, I think it would be pretty funny to watch. Not the results, just the schitzophrenic activity.

Of course. That's absolutely true (at least the emotion/quick trigger). But we're 5 months into the season. I know I personally am not forming an opinion about this subject on a quick trigger. This has been something that I've gradually come to a conclusion about (because I had my own reservations previously about Janish). He's answered my issues I had with him comfortably.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 04:55 PM
Of course. That's absolutely true (at least the emotion/quick trigger). But we're 5 months into the season. I know I personally am not forming an opinion about this subject on a quick trigger. This has been something that I've gradually come to a conclusion about (because I had my own reservations previously about Janish). He's answered my issues I had with him comfortably.

So 130ish random PAs have given you comfort, even when they are out of his historical norms and, when broken down, we see why those numbers may be out of line?

Brutus
08-26-2010, 05:37 PM
So 130ish random PAs have given you comfort, even when they are out of his historical norms and, when broken down, we see why those numbers may be out of line?

That's just it, I don't think they're out of line. I think they'll regress a little, but I think he's gotten better with more experience. That's not really far-fetched for his age/experience.

Plus, as I've said before, we know what Cabrera is and what he's likely to be going forward given his aging curve. I don't believe Cabrera is a better option given those known quantities.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 06:21 PM
That's just it, I don't think they're out of line. I think they'll regress a little, but I think he's gotten better with more experience. That's not really far-fetched for his age/experience.

Plus, as I've said before, we know what Cabrera is and what he's likely to be going forward given his aging curve. I don't believe Cabrera is a better option given those known quantities.

The obvious issue I have with Janish's numbers is that he has a little undue concentration of easy matchups. Something like 40% of his play has come against the worst, second worst and fourth worst pitching staffs in 2010 when those teams would typically be 25ish percent. And when you are talking a smallish sample, that is a lot.

Add that to the fact that 100% of the games in the playoffs will not include that type of pitching, and Janish needs to wait until next year for his shot.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 06:24 PM
No, he doesn't. Someone posted the numbers yesterday I believe and it showed both of them pretty equally sucked against good pitchers. Both were around .600 OPS against pitchers with ERA's below 3.50.

None of this consternation really matters because I'm fairly certain OCab is going back to SS as the regular starter once he gets activated. And I won't be losing any sleep over it. The difference between the two isn't enough to make me sweat it.

I don't think that them both sucking. For pitchers that were like 4.25 and below, Cabrera had an 85ish point edge, IIRC. The fact that Cabrera gives you in the mid .600s against the better pitchers in the league, that ain't bad.

nate
08-26-2010, 07:04 PM
Hot off the presses from BtB (http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/8/26/1651969/should-we-bench-player-x):


Orlando Cabrera, shortstop - Cincinnati

[snippage...click the link and read it!]

While Cabrera's UZR numbers have once again been strong this season, they were awfully ugly last season, and it's much easier to buy into a shortstop being an asset defensively when he's about to turn 28 like Janish rather than 36 like O-Cab. ZiPS projects similar offensive performance from both of them from here on out, but given Janish's advantages in youth, health and the fact he's regarded as a very strong defender at shortstop, I have a tough time believing that Cabrera's return means an upgrade to the Reds' lineup.

jojo
08-26-2010, 07:54 PM
I don't think that them both sucking. For pitchers that were like 4.25 and below, Cabrera had an 85ish point edge, IIRC. The fact that Cabrera gives you in the mid .600s against the better pitchers in the league, that ain't bad.

An 85ish edge over such small numbers probably isn't an actual difference.

edabbs44
08-26-2010, 08:41 PM
An 85ish edge over such small numbers probably isn't an actual difference.

Of course not.

jojo
08-26-2010, 11:07 PM
Of course not.

Of course. You're arguing based upon 24 at bats... a liner caught or not caught in a gap changes his OPS by .050. It's meaningless.

Razor Shines
08-27-2010, 12:29 AM
Of course not.

Paul janish has an ops of over 1.300 in high leverage situations this season. I figured i'd toss that out as long as we're making decisions based on 24 PAs.

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 06:05 AM
Of course. You're arguing based upon 24 at bats... a liner caught or not caught in a gap changes his OPS by .050. It's meaningless.

Well I could bring last year and his minor league career into the mix as well, but I wanted to be fair since he seems to have a new found approach and is vastly improved this season. :)

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 06:14 AM
Paul janish has an ops of over 1.300 in high leverage situations this season. I figured i'd toss that out as long as we're making decisions based on 24 PAs.

Paul Janish (along with Heisey) both have a weird distribution of their numbers. Both struggle against the SP in their first two ABs, both struggle against better pitching and both kill it vs RP, which I guess in Janish's case would explain the high leverage thing.

Cabrera is pretty even steven throughout, except he really is struggling this year vs RP.

I don't know if that means anything. But when it is as distinct as it appears to be, it makes for interesting discussion.

But it's funny...when all you have is a small sample size, of course you have to make decisions based on things like 24 PAs or whatever. Many on here made there decisions loud and clear on Chris Heisey
after he battered the Pirates around a bunch.

Janish, to me, hasn't done much to change my perception on his hitting. His numbers are improved but I believe that it is a result of him facing a higher concentration of awful pitching. Plus, I don't believe that he will continue to dominate awful pitching. If he was hitting, for example, btw .700 and .800 across the board, I would be more of a believer (but maybe still with some reservations). But when you see that there is a distinct reason why he seems to be vastly improved this year, I have serious doubt.

nate
08-27-2010, 07:39 AM
I think the intangible argument more compelling than trying to use tiny slices of an already small sample size. Still, not very compelling.

Here's something that's compelling: the Reds are 13-7 since O-Cab went on the DL.

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 08:13 AM
The thing about small sample sizes is that, in many instances, by the time the sample is large enough to make a truly reasonable assessment based on the superficial stats it is often too late. That's why you have to try and figure out if there is reason to question the sample.

To me, this sample has plenty of reason to question its validity, especially when the sample still won't be that large by the time October rolls around.

All I ask is that is that Janish show me some sustained success vs good pitching and I will have no issue with him. Though I think he is a tad overrated in the field by some, I like his glove. I just don't think that he has shown the ability to give the team anything at the plate in October. Maybe he has it. But if he does, we haven't seen it yet.

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 08:18 AM
Andsince no one got back to me with thoughts on why they think neither Heisey nor Janish have had any success vs starting pitching this year, here is another question:

for those who are in the Janish camp, do you think that he can hit top pitching and that the reason why he has not shown it this year yet is because of the sample size? Or are you hiding behind the sample size in your argument? Would like to hear your thoughts.

RedsManRick
08-27-2010, 09:31 AM
Andsince no one got back to me with thoughts on why they think neither Heisey nor Janish have had any success vs starting pitching this year, here is another question:

for those who are in the Janish camp, do you think that he can hit top pitching and that the reason why he has not shown it this year yet is because of the sample size? Or are you hiding behind the sample size in your argument? Would like to hear your thoughts.

Hiding behind sample size? That's just stupid. Not commenting on meaningless samples of data is not hiding; it's being intellectually honest instead of coming up with explanations that makes us feel smart because they make logical sense, but we which next to no evidence behind them.

jojo
08-27-2010, 09:49 AM
Offensively, projection systems view Cabrera and Janish similarly the rest of the way. Janish's glove is most likely a tier above Cabrera's.

What is different between the two is the amount of uncertainty in the projection and the estimate of the leather.

If Cabrera is healthy, I think it's probably the smartest strategy from a saber standpoint to go with the most certainty (i.e. Cabrera). Though my eyes are telling me-concerning overall value-it's probably a push between the two and I'd prefer defense (i.e. Janish) because it helps mitigate the biggest weakness with the roster (i.e. pitching).

Screwball
08-27-2010, 09:51 AM
A lot of this is missing the forest for the trees. If the Janish-Cabrera numbers are close -- and I think if we've established anything in this thread, it's that they are close -- then the nod has to go to the guy who has been universally credited as a team leader and on-field catalyst by his teammates. That may not mean anything to you as a fan or message board expert, but it means something to the guys on the field.

If the numbers are close offensively, I want the superior defender playing one of the most demanding defensive positions on the field. The Reds have done just fine with Cabrera's vast leadership skills on the bench.

nate
08-27-2010, 10:08 AM
Hiding behind sample size? That's just stupid. Not commenting on meaningless samples of data is not hiding; it's being intellectually honest instead of coming up with explanations that makes us feel smart because they make logical sense, but we which next to no evidence behind them.

Indeed.

Although, I'd argue the explanations using these small samples aren't logical nor do I feel smart after reading them!

:cool:

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 10:29 AM
Hiding behind sample size? That's just stupid. Not commenting on meaningless samples of data is not hiding; it's being intellectually honest instead of coming up with explanations that makes us feel smart because they make logical sense, but we which next to no evidence behind them.

As I referenced before, some who are in favor of Janish choose to ignore previous years and focus only on this year due to his renewed focus and improved approach and other things. Which I can get behind if true.

So if that is the case, we can then only focus on this year, where the sample size is obviously small. And when cutting it up further, the sizes obviously get smaller. Agreed up to ths point.

Now, when we look at this year we see that Janish's limited time has had a nice chunk of exposure to Pitt, Zona and Chicago (with more Cubbie love directly ahead).

So my question is this...do you truly believe that Janish's 2010 struggles with better starting pitching us directly related to sample size? I don't. But what others are telling me are only that it is a small sample.

If Janish were to get the lion's share of ABs the rest of the way, do you see him performing better against top pitching than he has this year?

jojo
08-27-2010, 10:37 AM
As I referenced before, some who are in favor of Janish choose to ignore previous years and focus only on this year due to his renewed focus and improved approach and other things. Which I can get behind if true.

So if that is the case, we can then only focus on this year, where the sample size is obviously small. And when cutting it up further, the sizes obviously get smaller. Agreed up to ths point.

Now, when we look at this year we see that Janish's limited time has had a nice chunk of exposure to Pitt, Zona and Chicago (with more Cubbie love directly ahead).

So my question is this...do you truly believe that Janish's 2010 struggles with better starting pitching us directly related to sample size? I don't. But what others are telling me are only that it is a small sample.

If Janish were to get the lion's share of ABs the rest of the way, do you see him performing better against top pitching than he has this year?

I think what some are suggesting is the "top pitching" spit isn't a useful frame of reference. From a true talent standpoint, Janish probably isn't going to be a world beater against top pitching. But then again, Cabrera probably isn't going to be either. Cabrera probably offers an offensive advantage but it's also likely to be a relatively small one.

BRM
08-27-2010, 10:41 AM
From a true talent standpoint, Janish probably isn't going to be a world beater against top pitching. But then again, Cabrera probably isn't going to be either. Cabrera probably offers an offensive advantage but it's also likely to be a relatively small one.

This is pretty much where I'm at. I don't expect either one to do much at the plate against top pitching. Very small edge to Cabrera though if I had to choose. Bigger edge to Janish defensively. Overall difference between the two is probably not enough to get worked up over.

membengal
08-27-2010, 10:57 AM
Andsince no one got back to me with thoughts on why they think neither Heisey nor Janish have had any success vs starting pitching this year, here is another question:

for those who are in the Janish camp, do you think that he can hit top pitching and that the reason why he has not shown it this year yet is because of the sample size? Or are you hiding behind the sample size in your argument? Would like to hear your thoughts.

What's the point of responding at this point? You clearly believe what you want to believe on Janish, and will use whatever stat you can bastardize to fit your point of view.

There is no sense entering a conversation when it is like that, no more than it would be talking to a brick wall.

You may be right on Janish. Or not. But I don't see anything else worth discussing when a mind is as made up as yours is about the wonderfulness of Cabrera and the awfulness of Janish.

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 11:04 AM
I think what some are suggesting is the "top pitching" spit isn't a useful frame of reference. From a true talent standpoint, Janish probably isn't going to be a world beater against top pitching. But then again, Cabrera probably isn't going to be either. Cabrera probably offers an offensive advantage but it's also likely to be a relatively small one.

When talking about replacing someone in Sept/Oct, I think the performance vs top pitchers is somewhat relevant.

jojo
08-27-2010, 11:15 AM
When talking about replacing someone in Sept/Oct, I think the performance vs top pitchers is somewhat relevant.

Sure but the data is too noisy (isn't sufficient) to allow you to draw the conclusions that you are....that's the point some are trying to make, I believe.

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 12:06 PM
Sure but the data is too noisy (isn't sufficient) to allow you to draw the conclusions that you are....that's the point some are trying to make, I believe.

The same can be said for those who are using his current stats on the whole, which is where I believe this all started.

BRM
08-27-2010, 12:09 PM
The same can be said for those who are using his current stats on the whole, which is where I believe this all started.

Which is probably why jojo used "from a true talent standpoint" for his reasoning instead of the stats.

jojo
08-27-2010, 12:17 PM
Here's how i'd handle it...

To me, from a saber standpoint, it's mostly a push with Cabrera getting more weight because the uncertainty in estimating his true talent it probably less (so you'd be more confident in your estimate).

I'd throw the question to my scouts. What do their eyes see concerning defense and the bat. In other words, do they see a reason to think Janish is more offensively than he has been? Do they agree, that Janish has a clear cut defensive advantage? DO they have reason to think that Cabrera's bat is eroding rather than still possess some upside?

In other words, can the scouts narrow those error bars. Are they consistent with a saber conclusion?

edabbs44
08-27-2010, 12:18 PM
Which is probably why jojo used "from a true talent standpoint" for his reasoning instead of the stats.

Not sure how or even if that makes a difference. But I'm pretty sure we have run our course.

Razor Shines
08-27-2010, 02:29 PM
Andsince no one got back to me with thoughts on why they think neither Heisey nor Janish have had any success vs starting pitching this year, here is another question:

for those who are in the Janish camp, do you think that he can hit top pitching and that the reason why he has not shown it this year yet is because of the sample size? Or are you hiding behind the sample size in your argument? Would like to hear your thoughts.

I don't even know what you're talking about. I don't believe Janish is anything special at the plate he's most likely an 8 hole hitter, but OCab has sucked at the plate for nearly 3 years now and he's getting older and worse. You want to give OCab an offensive edge, fine, but it's miniscule at best.

In terms of range and arm Janish is clearly better, I'd call it a wash as far as glove work goes. It's as simple as that, Janish gives you a better chance to win because he gets to more balls than OC.

edabbs44
08-28-2010, 10:52 PM
Except Heisey keeps getting exposed more and more. Janish continues to produce. He raised his OPS in SanFran. Janish is Janish not Chris and now has more AB's than Heisey. Janish makes more contact, takes more walks. Like comparing Votto to Stubbs.

If my calculations are correct, here are Janish's numbers since becoming a starter against opponents with team ERAs below 5.

.190/.277/.224 over 78 PAs. 11 hits in 58 ABs, 7 BBs, 2 2Bs, 0 HR, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.

RedsManRick
08-28-2010, 10:59 PM
If my calculations are correct, here are Janish's numbers since becoming a starter against opponents with team ERAs below 5.

.190/.277/.224 over 78 PAs. 11 hits in 58 ABs, 7 BBs, 2 2Bs, 0 HR, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.

But how does that break out between day games and night games? Weekdays vs. weekends?

edabbs44
08-28-2010, 11:05 PM
But how does that break out between day games and night games? Weekdays vs. weekends?

Depends on who he faces, I guess. ;)

But if you don't see the relevance then I am stumped.

Razor Shines
08-28-2010, 11:45 PM
If my calculations are correct, here are Janish's numbers since becoming a starter against opponents with team ERAs below 5.

.190/.277/.224 over 78 PAs. 11 hits in 58 ABs, 7 BBs, 2 2Bs, 0 HR, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.

Seriously? That's your next best punch? I can't even begin to express how much I don't care about that split.

kaldaniels
08-28-2010, 11:50 PM
If my calculations are correct, here are Janish's numbers since becoming a starter against opponents with team ERAs below 5.

.190/.277/.224 over 78 PAs. 11 hits in 58 ABs, 7 BBs, 2 2Bs, 0 HR, 3 runs scored and 4 RBI.

http://www.friendsofthekoala.org/fok/files/images/koala%20country%20energy%20cherry%20picker%20003.p review.jpg

Razor Shines
08-28-2010, 11:52 PM
Janish goes .333/.417/.540 when he plays 3rd base, so........you know.

I know why you bumped it up to an ERA under 5, you had to be able to add in his 0-4 tonight against Wells and Russell.

pedro
08-29-2010, 12:12 AM
Janish is starting to sink to his true offensive level which is around a .600 OPS. The longer he plays the closer he's going to get to that number. I hope Cozart can make the jump next year because Janish is just not a good option to start everyday IMO.

jojo
08-29-2010, 12:26 AM
Janish is starting to sink to his true offensive level which is around a .600 OPS. The longer he plays the closer he's going to get to that number. I hope Cozart can make the jump next year because Janish is just not a good option to start everyday IMO.

That's about right. He's a great guy to have on the roster because he can play short (and it's legit plus defense at short), second, third, first, and heck probably decent corner outfield in a pinch. It's a real advantage to have such flexibility at the margins of the roster. As an everyday middle infielder? I'm skeptical.

RedsManRick
08-29-2010, 01:16 AM
Depends on who he faces, I guess. ;)

But if you don't see the relevance then I am stumped.

I understand the point you're trying to make. Your evidence just isn't as substantial as you seem to think it is.

TheNext44
08-29-2010, 01:27 AM
Janish is starting to sink to his true offensive level which is around a .600 OPS. The longer he plays the closer he's going to get to that number. I hope Cozart can make the jump next year because Janish is just not a good option to start everyday IMO.


When Janish took over for Cabrera, his OPS was .767. It went up to .866, then down to .759, then back up to .815, then back down to .759, then up to .780, and now is at .752.

He basically has dropped less than the value of a double in the three weeks that he's been starting. In the 22 games that he has started, he has failed to reach base 4 times, and they all were at least 5 games apart.

Maybe he's not cut out for starting, but this past three weeks as a starter has not revealed that.

RedsMan3203
08-29-2010, 01:46 AM
Remember when OCab started the year on fire? Getting key hits, RBI's etc? Then it went down hill until the ASB... After that nice rest, again he came back hitting well and playing good D.

I think when OCab comes back on the 1st, he'll spark the bats more then what they are now and will help expand that lead against the Cards...

Janish is nothing more then a start or two player a week RIGHT NOW. A year or two down the road thats a different story. He looks better this year then last... So he has to keep working at it.

pedro
08-29-2010, 02:00 AM
When Janish took over for Cabrera, his OPS was .767. It went up to .866, then down to .759, then back up to .815, then back down to .759, then up to .780, and now is at .752.

He basically has dropped less than the value of a double in the three weeks that he's been starting. In the 22 games that he has started, he has failed to reach base 4 times, and they all were at least 5 games apart.

Maybe he's not cut out for starting, but this past three weeks as a starter has not revealed that.

He's oh-ferred in 5 of his last 8 games. The slide back to his true level has begun and the stats are hiding behind his 3 hit game in SF. I'm glad he has been playing above his head but I just don't believe for a minute it's anything but that.

Ron Madden
08-29-2010, 02:03 AM
Remember when OCab started the year on fire? Getting key hits, RBI's etc? Then it went down hill until the ASB... After that nice rest, again he came back hitting well and playing good D.

I think when OCab comes back on the 1st, he'll spark the bats more then what they are now and will help expand that lead against the Cards...

Janish is nothing more then a start or two player a week RIGHT NOW. A year or two down the road thats a different story. He looks better this year then last... So he has to keep working at it.

Why is it a different story a year or two down the road?

Must the Reds starting SS be 30 years old or older in order for some fans to trust him?

GAC
08-29-2010, 05:39 AM
Paul's career numbers vs that of another "famous" Reds SS/INF Utility who was known primarily for his glove....


BA OB SLG OPS OPS+
Janish .225 .312 .325 .637 69
Castro .228 .268 .327 .595 55

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 12:31 PM
I understand the point you're trying to make. Your evidence just isn't as substantial as you seem to think it is.

I think it's fairly substantial.

RedsMan3203
08-29-2010, 12:41 PM
Why is it a different story a year or two down the road?

Must the Reds starting SS be 30 years old or older in order for some fans to trust him?

Because he is looking better this year over last year (atleast by the eye) If he continues to work (And we all know he will) he could turn into a serviceable SS with good range/glove.

With the Likes of Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, Yonder, and a FA or two to fill in here and there, the bat of Janish just needs to be 'ok' to make a difference.

VR
08-29-2010, 12:47 PM
Paul is looking tired out there....I'm surprised by that. In 4 games...he's had 3 squibbers off the end of his bat to the 1b side....all because he's starting his swing early to try to jump on pitches and pull them.

For lack of a better example, he quite often looks like a kid w/ low blood sugar levels out there.

TheNext44
08-29-2010, 12:53 PM
He's oh-ferred in 5 of his last 8 games. The slide back to his true level has begun and the stats are hiding behind his 3 hit game in SF. I'm glad he has been playing above his head but I just don't believe for a minute it's anything but that.

Only he didn't oh-ferr in all of them. He had four walks in those 8 games. And he only K'd 5 times. I am sure you could find a similar eight game stretch from nearly every MLB hitter every season.

You can see whatever you want to see, but I see a guy who will at the very least OPS above .700 going forward. And with his defense, he could OPS as low as .650 and still be productive at short.

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 01:00 PM
Only he didn't oh-ferr in all of them. He had four walks in those 8 games. And he only K'd 5 times. I am sure you could find a similar eight game stretch from nearly every MLB hitter every season.

You can see whatever you want to see, but I see a guy who will at the very least OPS above .700 going forward. And with his defense, he could OPS as low as .650 and still be productive at short.

I think all the evidence points to a sub .700 guy here, and most likely being substantially below .700 as he sees more time.

jojo
08-29-2010, 01:35 PM
I think it's fairly substantial.

Research has demonstrated that the sample sizes that you are relying upon in some of the splits to make your arguments aren't large enough to allow meaningful conclusions about the offensive skills being discussed. This really isn't a matter of agreeing to disagree regarding sampling issues.

TheNext44
08-29-2010, 01:40 PM
I think all the evidence points to a sub .700 guy here, and most likely being substantially below .700 as he sees more time.

Even if you throw out all of this season, not all of the evidence points to a sub .700 OPS for Janish. Some of it does, but some of the evidence points to an above .700 OPS. And the general rule for decoding stats is to place the most weight on the most recent stats.

RedsManRick
08-29-2010, 01:55 PM
I think it's fairly substantial.

I really don't care what you think about the sample size. The science of statistics disagrees with you.

That doesn't mean you're wrong. Janish could very well be a guy who struggles badly against good pitching when compared to Cabrera. But 80 PA isn't close to enough evidence to establish this. You say "all of the evidence", but then ignore the parts of the evidence that disagree with your position. You can't have it both ways. Just because the small sample agrees with your hypothesis that doesn't make it any more valid.

I'll leave it there. Pretty sure you aren't going to come around to this view and I'm certainly not going to start caring about an 80 PA split. Suffice it to say that any argument with Janish over Cabrera starts with Janish's clearly superior glove. The question is whether or not Cabrera offsets that advantage with a better bat, leadership abilities, and what-have-you.

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 02:15 PM
I really don't care what you think about the sample size. The science of statistics disagrees with you.

That doesn't mean you're wrong. Janish could very well be a guy who struggles badly against good pitching when compared to Cabrera. But 80 PA isn't close to enough evidence to establish this. You say "all of the evidence", but then ignore the parts of the evidence that disagree with your position. You can't have it both ways. Just because the small sample agrees with your hypothesis that doesn't make it any more valid.

I'll leave it there. Pretty sure you aren't going to come around to this view and I'm certainly not going to start caring about an 80 PA split. Suffice it to say that any argument with Janish over Cabrera starts with Janish's clearly superior glove. The question is whether or not Cabrera offsets that advantage with a better bat, leadership abilities, and what-have-you.

Maybe you haven't seen the way this thread has gone. I didn't start the thread or the other one asking about Janish starting. I didn't start this by saying that Janish shouldn't be starting because of 80 PAs or whatever. I am responding to posters who believe that he should be starting due to his improvement at the plate and his potential for a .750 OPS, or whatever others have stated, mostly because of his production so far this season.

And what I have been saying is that the "improvement" in his production could be viewed as a product of the opposition in such a small sample, along with the small sample itself.

pedro
08-29-2010, 02:20 PM
I'll add this. Janish is a good, not great SS, who while a defensive improvement over Cabrera, is no where close to elite with the glove.

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 02:20 PM
Even if you throw out all of this season, not all of the evidence points to a sub .700 OPS for Janish. Some of it does, but some of the evidence points to an above .700 OPS. And the general rule for decoding stats is to place the most weight on the most recent stats.

Out of curiosity, if you threw out 2010 what would lead you to believe that he could OPS above .700 in the major leagues?

I would feel much more comfortable with Janish's numbers being representative of what he could do on a full time basis if they were (to a certain extent) consistent across the board. Even in a small sample like this.

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 02:22 PM
I'll add this. Janish is a good, not great SS, who while a defensive improvement over Cabrera, is no where close to elite with the glove.

I touched on this earlier (I believe) but I agree with this. He has a nice glove but I think he has become a little overrated in that regard.

mth123
08-29-2010, 02:24 PM
I touched on this earlier (I believe) but I agree with this. He has a nice glove but I think he has become a little overrated in that regard.

Rule of thumb:

Guys with a weak bat always have a better than they deserve rep for their glove.

Guys who are weak on both sides are noted for their hustle and scrappines.

I'm with you and Pedro, but the right answer is that the Reds are weak at SS and need somebody else next year. Maybe Cozart.

edabbs44
08-29-2010, 02:25 PM
Rule of thumb:

Guys with a weak bat always have a better than they deserve rep for their glove.

Guys who are weak on both sides are noted for their hustle and scrappines.

I'm with you and Pedro, but the right answer is that the Reds are weak at SS and need somebody else next year. Maybe Cozart.

I don't disagree with this and I'm not all that familiar with Cozart but hopefully he is someone who can step up.

pedro
08-29-2010, 02:30 PM
IIRC, Cozart has always been highly regarded defensively but the question was whether he would hit, which he seems be doing pretty well in AAA. .760 OPS / 16 HR's

Ron Madden
08-29-2010, 02:37 PM
I certainly agree the Reds need to upgrade the SS position.

It's just my opinion that the Reds are better with Janish at SS than they are with Cabrera playing there.