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mbgrayson
08-23-2010, 10:57 AM
As of today, August 23rd, the Reds are 72-52, which is 124 games into the season. Of the remaining 38 games, here is what the Reds have left to play:

19 home games
19 road games

Games against teams that are above .500: 13 games (SF-3, StL-3, Col-4, SD-3)
Games against teams that are below .500: 25 games (ChC-3, Mil-9, Pit-3, Ari-4, Hou-6)


The Cardinals have three more games left (41) than the Reds, counting the make-up game against Florida. That will mean three less off days than the Reds in the next six weeks. The Cardinals have the following left to play:

17 home games
24 road games

Games against teams that are above .500: 16 games (Cin-3, Atl-4, SD-4, Col-4, Fla-1)
Games against teams that are below .500: 25 games (Pit-9, Wsh-4, Hou-3, Mil-3, ChC-6)


So it appears to me that the Reds have several small advantages for the
remainder of the year:
1. They have three fewer games left to play.
2. They have more days off.
3. They have a higher percentage of home games
4. They play fewer games against teams with winning records.
5. They have a 3.5 game lead in the standings.

With this said, the Cardinals do get to play 9 games against the Pirates, and our most frequent competitor will be the Brewers (9 games). Now if the Reds keep playing like they have for the month of August, they will be in great shape.

hebroncougar
08-23-2010, 11:49 AM
I hope the Reds can beat the heck out of Milwaukee:)

UKFlounder
08-23-2010, 12:07 PM
Good analysis. I had heard somebody say the Cardinals had an easier schedule, and perhaps those games with the Pirates may make it true, but the numbers you showed make it look pretty comparable, though I really like that the Reds have more home games left. It seemed like they plated at home a lot earlier in the year, but I guess the Cardinals did too.

Good stuff

Degenerate39
08-23-2010, 12:09 PM
I hope the Pirates get super hot in their remaining games except when they play the Reds of course

Roy Tucker
08-23-2010, 12:13 PM
Play every team like they're the '27 Yankees. Take nothing for granted. Nobody is going to roll over for you.

The Cubs, Brewers, Astros, etc would love to play spoilers. The Reds have had a lot of experience in that role in the recent past. Nice to be on the other side of the tracks.

durl
08-23-2010, 12:16 PM
I like that the Cards have more road games than home ones down the stretch. Their road record (26-31) is pretty mediocre.

Caveat Emperor
08-23-2010, 12:25 PM
The one thing the Cards have going for them is 9 games against the Pirates. They should easily go 8-1 or 7-2 in those games. The Brewers are a much tougher draw for the Reds -- as they can at least score runs, which gives them a puncher's chance in any game they play.

_Sir_Charles_
08-23-2010, 12:26 PM
Play every team like they're the '27 Yankees. Take nothing for granted. Nobody is going to roll over for you.

The Cubs, Brewers, Astros, etc would love to play spoilers. The Reds have had a lot of experience in that role in the recent past. Nice to be on the other side of the tracks.

Spot on. No need to look forward. Look to tonight.

traderumor
08-23-2010, 12:51 PM
Strength of schedule is not valid for MLB. Timing is everything. Pitching matchups, injuries, slumps, hot streaks, team matchups, etc., make predictions or expectations very difficult.

Look at this weekend--we got the advantage of playing a severly neutered Dodger team. Furcal, Martin out with injuries, Manny just getting back from rehab, Loney and Ethier slumping, Padilla getting scratched and drawing a bullpen fill-in. Heck, I had us losing the Dodgers series just looking at the pitching matchups, but Bronson outpitched Kershaw.

We also seem to be catching the Giants at a good time, but then they've had some rough times on the road and may enjoy some home cooking and get hot on us.

You just have to take MLB a day at a time. As we just witnessed, fortunes change incredibly fast in this game. We were manhandled for three games and subsequently have won 8 of 9 while the Cards finally won a series after a 5 game skid.

membengal
08-23-2010, 12:53 PM
Balancing out the games StL has against the Pirates are the eight they have left against the Braves and Padres. Atlanta and SD will certainly be fully engaged for those at any rate.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 12:55 PM
Big key for me is the 24 road games remaining for the Cards. They are 26-31 on the road this year.

I(heart)Freel
08-23-2010, 01:06 PM
Off days off days off days.

Reds have 'em. Cards don't. Plus that little matter of the Cards-Marlins make up game.

This is a HUGE advantage for the Reds since Tony can't restack his roto every few days. We know how mortal his 4-5 starters are.

PS If Gomes keeps getting starts in left, the Reds' 19 home games help too. That guy's home/road splits are gargantuan.

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 01:10 PM
Off days off days off days.

Reds have 'em. Cards don't. Plus that little matter of the Cards-Marlins make up game.

This is a HUGE advantage for the Reds since Tony can't restack his roto every few days. We know how mortal his 4-5 starters are.

PS If Gomes keeps getting starts in left, the Reds' 19 home games help too. That guy's home/road splits are gargantuan.

This is an exceptional point.

BTW I don't expect to see Gomes in the lineup tonight vs. Matt Cain, Laynce Nix seems to have a pretty good read on Cain hitting over .500 against him the past few seasons. Hopefully the good Volquez shows up tonight we will need him so as not to end up with the bullpen disadvantage in the series.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 01:21 PM
This is a HUGE advantage for the Reds since Tony can't restack his roto every few days. We know how mortal his 4-5 starters are.

Well, the 4th starter is a little better now that Westbrook is a Cardinal. Westbrook hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start since the trade. Lohse is still a big question though.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 01:21 PM
The fact that the Cardinals have nine games remaining against the Pirates worries me. As Caveat said, that could easily be anywhere from seven to nine wins for the Cardinals. My hope is the Pirates can get hot and find a way to win at least three of those final nine games against the Cardinals. Anything more than that would probably be too much to ask for.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 01:23 PM
The fact that the Cardinals have nine games remaining against the Pirates worries me. As Caveat said, that could easily be anywhere from seven to nine wins for the Cardinals. My hope is the Pirates can get hot and find a way to win at least three of those final nine games against the Cardinals. Anything more than that would probably be too much to ask for.

IIRC, the Cardinals are 4-3 against the Pirates so far this year. I'm not certain of the record, but I know it's close because the Pirates won a series 3-1 earlier in the year. The Pirates do put up a fight against the Cardinals.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 01:24 PM
IIRC, the Cardinals are 4-3 against the Pirates so far this year. I'm not certain of the record, but I know it's close because the Pirates won a series 3-1 earlier in the year. The Pirates do put up a fight against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 5-1 against the Pirates this season.

traderumor
08-23-2010, 01:27 PM
Well, the 4th starter is a little better now that Westbrook is a Cardinal. Westbrook hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start since the trade. Lohse is still a big question though.That may be so with Westbrook, but I do not believe the Cards have won a game in his starts yet. He might give you a "quality start," but he also requires backend bullpen help because of being a 5-6 inning pitcher. And the Cards bullpen has been in a tailspin for weeks/months.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 01:28 PM
I meant to add this in my other post. The Reds have 38 games remaining. .500 baseball the rest of the way puts the Reds at 91 wins. I would still feel nervous with 91 wins. However, if the Reds can continue winning at their current pace, 22-16 in the final 38 games is doable and would put the Reds at 94 wins, which IMO, should be enough to reach the playoffs. All the Reds need to do is continue winning and they won't have to worry as much about what the Cardinals are doing.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 01:33 PM
The Cardinals are 5-1 against the Pirates this season.

sorry...my memory must be failing me. lol

VR
08-23-2010, 01:36 PM
Agree that the days off factor will not serve the Cards well. Pujols, Molina and Holliday have already been grinding it out without days off, and forcing to only have Carp/Wainwright 2/5 of the time.

RBA
08-23-2010, 01:37 PM
It's ok to scoreboard watch. But the Reds are in the Driver's seat if they just win. Just concentrate on winning and if they win, they can't be overtaken.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 01:47 PM
Agree that the days off factor will not serve the Cards well. Pujols, Molina and Holliday have already been grinding it out without days off, and forcing to only have Carp/Wainwright 2/5 of the time.

Garcia has been just as good as Carpenter though.

Ron Madden
08-23-2010, 02:16 PM
Just Win Baby!

Roy Tucker
08-23-2010, 02:22 PM
Team by team W-L grid

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 02:24 PM
Garcia has been just as good as Carpenter though.

That guy has got to hit a wall at some point.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 02:27 PM
Garcia has already thrown 141 innings. He threw 38 innings last year, and 120 the year before.

I really feel like they are going to run him into the ground. Not to mention he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Truly crazy how desperate the Cards are getting.

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 02:29 PM
Team by team W-L grid

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/grid

That grid is fascinating. The Reds have similar or better records against everyone both have faced except the Pirates, Atlanta and the Cards themselves have our number. That is quite interesting.

If it weren't for our Bullpen those Pirates and Braves series are different.

OesterPoster
08-23-2010, 02:30 PM
Speaking of limiting innings, saw that the Padres are pushing Latos' next start back to this Friday. They've got a run of 17 games in 17 days coming up, so we'll see if they keep him on normal rest. If they do keep him on normal rest in September, he'll go against the Cards on 9/17...and most probably miss the Reds the following weekend.

medford
08-23-2010, 02:31 PM
Garcia has already thrown 141 innings. He threw 38 innings last year, and 120 the year before.

I really feel like they are going to run him into the ground. Not to mention he's coming off Tommy John surgery. Truly crazy how desperate the Cards are getting.

People have been saying that all year, that at some point Garcia is going to have to be put on the shelf for throwing too many innings, but at this point he doesn't appear to be slowing down and the Cards can ill afford to limit him going forward unless they fall completely out of the race. No matter if you believe the Verduci effect or not, I don't look for Garcia to hit the wall this season. Next year perhaps w/ some injury similar to what Homer saw this year, but I think he'll remain strong as long as the Cards let him pitch this season (and wouldn't it be nice if come Labor Day the Cards believe their out of it and put Garcia on the shelf of the rest of September?)

medford
08-23-2010, 02:34 PM
Speaking of limiting innings, saw that the Padres are pushing Latos' next start back to this Friday. They've got a run of 17 games in 17 days coming up, so we'll see if they keep him on normal rest. If they do keep him on normal rest in September, he'll go against the Cards on 9/17...and most probably miss the Reds the following weekend.

Sounds like the inverse of what happened during the 1st half for the Reds & Cards. Perhaps the run of the Reds getting everyone's ace, while the Cards avoided them flipped during the break when the Rockie's rested their Ace until after the Reds series, while the Cards got Lincecum (despite beating him) saturday, and the Reds will miss him. Been a couple of other examples that I forget as well.

oneupper
08-23-2010, 02:37 PM
That grid is fascinating. The Reds have similar or better records against everyone both have faced except the Pirates and the Cards themselves have our number. That is quite interesting.

The schedulers didn't do the REDS any favors either.
9 vs. LAD (Stl got 9 vs. ARI).
18 vs. STL (14-16 vs. other central rivals). Why?

and we know the annual inter-league story. (STL gets KC, CIN gets CLE).

I'll go enjoy my wine now. :D

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 02:37 PM
Really, if you look at it, the only reason why this division race is so close is because of the Reds/Cardinals head-to-head matchups. The Cardinals have played their best baseball against the Reds this season. Sometimes a certain team just happens to have your number and this year it appears the Cardinals have the Reds rumber. The Reds played very well vs the Cardinals in 2006 when the Cardinals won it all. The Reds are 5-10 against the Cardinals this season, if the Reds win just two of those games they would have a 7 1/2 game lead right now.

VR
08-23-2010, 02:38 PM
Garcia has been just as good as Carpenter though.

His results have been there....but outside of 2-3 starts in recent history, he's been Houdini.

He was fantastic in his last start....but I don't seem him repeating it, especially on the road.

Unfortunately....he's a lot like EV, Cueto and Homer right now. Might throw up a shutout, might have an early exit due to control issues.

OesterPoster
08-23-2010, 02:44 PM
I think the 2-5 against the Phillies really irks me more than the 5-10 against the Cards. Quite a few of those 10 losses weren't even within reach. Those losses to the Phillies though, those really sting.

Caveat Emperor
08-23-2010, 02:48 PM
I think the 2-5 against the Phillies really irks me more than the 5-10 against the Cards. Quite a few of those 10 losses weren't even within reach. Those losses to the Phillies though, those really sting.

Getting swept by the Pirates might end up coming back to bite this team in the backside as well.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 02:54 PM
Getting swept by the Pirates might end up coming back to bite this team in the backside as well.

If the Reds miss the playoffs, the two losses that will really bother me are the losses in Atlanta and Philly when the Reds blew a six run lead in the 9th inning in both games. We would be looking at a 5 1/2 game lead right now without those two losses.

Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 02:57 PM
We can play the what if game til we're blue and the face, and we will all remember the games we blew more than the games we've come back to win.

However, there are PLENTY of games this year that the Reds were very, very lucky to win, and could have easily gone the other way. The two 6-run 9th inning losses will obviously sting, but there are also countless games that the Reds had no business winning, but ended up coming out on top.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 03:11 PM
We can play the what if game til we're blue and the face, and we will all remember the games we blew more than the games we've come back to win.

However, there are PLENTY of games this year that the Reds were very, very lucky to win, and could have easily gone the other way. The two 6-run 9th inning losses will obviously sting, but there are also countless games that the Reds had no business winning, but ended up coming out on top.

Right, both teams have plenty of games that you could say "what if" about.

bucksfan2
08-23-2010, 03:25 PM
We can play the what if game til we're blue and the face, and we will all remember the games we blew more than the games we've come back to win.

However, there are PLENTY of games this year that the Reds were very, very lucky to win, and could have easily gone the other way. The two 6-run 9th inning losses will obviously sting, but there are also countless games that the Reds had no business winning, but ended up coming out on top.

:thumbup: Its the ebb and flow of a baseball season. Every year you have games you should have won and games you should have lost that go the other way. You keep harping on those games "you should have won" and your likely to drive yourself nuts in doing so.

westofyou
08-23-2010, 03:27 PM
If the Reds miss the playoffs, the two losses that will really bother me are the losses in Atlanta and Philly when the Reds blew a six run lead in the 9th inning in both games. We would be looking at a 5 1/2 game lead right now without those two losses.

How far back would they be without their last inning wins?

Roy Tucker
08-23-2010, 03:42 PM
A Raul Julia line that I often quote from the movie "The Gumball Rally":

Franco: And now my friend, the first-a rule of Italian driving.
[Franco rips off his rear-view mirror and throws it out of the car]
Franco: What's-a behind me is not important.

You can't change the past. You can change the future.

kaldaniels
08-23-2010, 04:46 PM
We can play the what if game til we're blue and the face, and we will all remember the games we blew more than the games we've come back to win.

However, there are PLENTY of games this year that the Reds were very, very lucky to win, and could have easily gone the other way. The two 6-run 9th inning losses will obviously sting, but there are also countless games that the Reds had no business winning, but ended up coming out on top.

Yep. If the Reds choke down the stretch and lose the division by 1 game, this is my oath that the Braves/Phillies game will not be mentioned by me...Cincy has stolen some games that they shouldn't have won...it goes both ways. I'm probably simple minded but when I hear the hand-wringing about the Braves/Phily games (while we sit 20 games over 500) the only thought that enters my mind is "get over it".

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 04:51 PM
I think that the upcoming Reds/Cardinals series will mean a lot more than any games that have already been played by either team. The only thing that can change are the games et to be played.