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View Full Version : Should the Reds pick up Arroyo's option for $11M?



Homer Bailey
08-23-2010, 06:09 PM
Simple.

Should the Reds pick up Arroyo's option for $11M in 2011, or pay him $2M to go away?

nate
08-23-2010, 06:15 PM
If there were an option to renegotiate at a lower price, I would say that's the best thing but Bronson has indicated he's not interested in a hometown discount after being traded by the Red Sox. I would let him walk and see how the bread could be used differently.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 06:18 PM
Yes

While his stuff really isn't what you'd look for in an ace he's the closest thing to one(not that other guys aren't close but just not as close to Arroyo) that the Reds have.Hopefully one of the young arms steps up a little more next year and changes that.I just don't think you can let your best pitcher walk when your a contending team and you can have him for a reasonable amount.

pedro
08-23-2010, 06:22 PM
I'd exercise Arroyo's option if I was the Reds. Better to deal from a position of strength and flip someone in spring training then to count your chickens before they hatch. Plus I want no part of Maloney, dude doesn't have an "out pitch" and would get torched in GABP.

SirFelixCat
08-23-2010, 06:25 PM
I honestly can not understand, if/when someone votes no. Not a single other pitcher on this staff has anywhere near as consistent performance. Absolutely yes.

boognish
08-23-2010, 06:26 PM
There is a tremendous amount of marginal value in a pitcher who can devour 200+ innings, even if his results were to slip. The option is essentially no risk at one year, and any pitchers whose results can be expected to come in notably better than Arroyo's next 200 IP will likely cost just as much but with more years.

Basically, hedge against the possibility some of the young arms do not develop the way you wish. If there is a log jam, pitching can hypothetically be cashed in for other assets.

pedro
08-23-2010, 06:32 PM
One thing to consider is that Arroyo could have his 10/5 rights after this year and thus the right to block a trade if he so wished.

Not exactly sure if he qualifies for the 10 year service time though.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 06:33 PM
I'd exercise Arroyo's option if I was the Reds. Better to deal from a position of strength and flip someone in spring training then to count your chickens before they hatch. Plus I want no part of Maloney, dude doesn't have an "out pitch" and would get torched in GABP.

I don't get the "keep him to trade him"idea.Sure, it's better then just letting him walk and if the Reds struggle next year and become sellers then maybe, but hasn't it been great having this problem of too many starting pitchers while competing for a playoff spot?If there was any doubt in my mind that Arroyo could not live up to the 11mil then the trade idea would be ok.You keep him to help you win next year.

westofyou
08-23-2010, 06:35 PM
Money stuff when the season is over, until then I hope that the Reds let stuff like options, extensions and other winter time haggling fall to the wayside.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 06:35 PM
Money stuff when the season is over, until then I hope that the Reds let stuff like options, extensions and other winter time haggling fall to the wayside.

Probably a good idea but we're not the Reds.

westofyou
08-23-2010, 06:38 PM
Probably a good idea but we're not the Reds.

Personally I could care less about money when games are being played, that's boring compared to the games.

RedsManRick
08-23-2010, 06:44 PM
Simple.

Should the Reds pick up Arroyo's option for $11M in 2011, or pay him $2M to go away?

You should update the poll to say "No, pay him $2M to go away".

I voted yes. Arroyo has benefited quite a bit, ERA-wise, from the Reds defense and a lower HR rate than his career numbers and 2010 flyball rate would suggest he can maintain. However, as a 4.50 ERA guy who is as much as a lock for 200 IP as a pitcher can be, he's worth $9M -- especially on a 1 year deal.

Ideally, we'd be able to add a real ace, but I don't think that's a guy we're going to get in free agency through big dollars. Our best shot at a guy like that is through a trade. Offer Bailey/Volquez and Frazier for Grienke. Shop Alonso and more for Cain. You get the idea.

In the FWIW department, Arroyo is one of 7 pitchers who has thrown at least 1200 IP since the start of 2005.



Pitcher GS IP ERA
Sabathia 189 1301.0 3.24
Haren 195 1290.0 3.63
Santana 186 1272.1 2.91
Halladay 173 1272.0 2.88
Arroyo 194 1251.1 4.06
Burhrle 187 1234.0 3.85
Oswalt 186 1226.2 3.30

pedro
08-23-2010, 06:45 PM
I don't get the "keep him to trade him"idea.Sure, it's better then just letting him walk and if the Reds struggle next year and become sellers then maybe, but hasn't it been great having this problem of too many starting pitchers while competing for a playoff spot?If there was any doubt in my mind that Arroyo could not live up to the 11mil then the trade idea would be ok.You keep him to help you win next year.

I'm not saying he has to be the guy to trade, maybe someone else gets packaged. I just like the idea of the Reds dealing from a position of strength.

I'd keep him because I think he's a good guy to have on the staff.

Mario-Rijo
08-23-2010, 06:59 PM
To me it's not that simple, but since I have only 2 options I'd go with no. Keeping him means some young arm ready for the rotation doesn't get to start there.

Wood, Leake and Cueto assuming health are all fine to pitch 200 innings next year. Bailey and Volquez are debatable but we also have Chapman too and between the 3 and LeCure and Maloney as emergency stop gaps we should be fine covering all the innings and getting similar production. And that's all if we don't sign another vet on the cheap to maybe soak up some innings ala Webb. There's alot more reasons why it makes more sense to turn it down than to keep him.

kaldaniels
08-23-2010, 07:00 PM
9 Million added to payroll for 200 IP. Put me down for a yes.

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 07:03 PM
Personally I could care less about money when games are being played, that's boring compared to the games.

Once again, I agree.It's just that the Reds don't play until 10pm tonight.;)

pedro
08-23-2010, 07:03 PM
To me it's not that simple, but since I have only 2 options I'd go with no. Keeping him means some young arm ready for the rotation doesn't get to start there.

Wood, Leake and Cueto assuming health are all fine to pitch 200 innings next year. Bailey and Volquez are debatable but we also have Chapman too and between the 3 and LeCure and Maloney as emergency stop gaps we should be fine covering all the innings and getting similar production. And that's all if we don't sign another vet on the cheap to maybe soak up some innings ala Webb. There's alot more reasons why it makes more sense to turn it down than to keep him.

It's never a good idea to assume any pitcher is "fine to pitch 200 innings" until they've done it at least a couple of times. Right now Arroyo is on pace to do it for the 6th consecutive year. That in itself is more exceptional than I think many posters hear understand.

No other Red other than Harang, who will undoubtedly be gone, has even done it once, although Volquez did come close.

The Voice of IH
08-23-2010, 07:04 PM
I can not see why the Reds would say yes to this. they have 6 young pitchers that could easily be dominate. (Wood is a ? right now). why would you clog yourself with all the starting power you have now?

pedro
08-23-2010, 07:05 PM
I can not see why the Reds would say yes to this. they have 6 young pitchers that could easily be dominate. (Wood is a ? right now). why would you clog yourself with all the starting power you have now?

Because SP is the most valuable asset in the game.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 07:05 PM
Ideally, we'd be able to add a real ace, but I don't think that's a guy we're going to get in free agency through big dollars. Our best shot at a guy like that is through a trade. Offer Bailey/Volquez and Frazier for Grienke. Shop Alonso and more for Cain. You get the idea.


The type of pitcher the Reds would most likely be able to get in a trade would probably still have a good sized contract. That $9Mil that Arroyo will be eating could go a long way towards getting that Ace. I doubt the Reds would keep Arroyo AND trade for that Ace that the Reds could really use. Arroyo isn't an Ace, he is just paid like one.

JaxRed
08-23-2010, 07:19 PM
Yes. Wait till the season is over. And assuming, someone doesn't knock you over in a trade for him, you extend.

And you prepare to offer him arb after the season, and let him go for draft choices.

PuffyPig
08-23-2010, 07:21 PM
The type of pitcher the Reds would most likely be able to get in a trade would probably still have a good sized contract. That $9Mil that Arroyo will be eating could go a long way towards getting that Ace. I doubt the Reds would keep Arroyo AND trade for that Ace that the Reds could really use. Arroyo isn't an Ace, he is just paid like one.

We may not need that "ace" to trade for. It would be nice to have, but I'm not so sure it's a necessity for us to contend. And that ace may well be already inhouse.

We seem to be doing OK this year without one.

Is Lohse an ace, he's getting more than $11M?

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 07:30 PM
We may not need that "ace" to trade for. It would be nice to have, but I'm not so sure it's a necessity for us to contend. And that ace may well be already inhouse.

We seem to be doing OK this year without one.

Is Lohse an ace, he's getting more than $11M?

Well...I didn't say the Reds need an Ace..I said they could use one. I chose my words carefully. You may have taken my post the wrong way... I'm not sure. The thing is that the Reds have several young pitchers that can put up the numbers that Arroyo puts up or better. Do you need an Ace to get to the playoffs? Probably not! Do you need an Ace to get through the playoffs and win the World Series? You probably do!

Do you want Kyle Lohse? Like Arroyo...Lohse isn't anwhere near an Ace...he never was. He's just being paid like one. If the Cardinals had the option of paying him $2 Mil to make him go away I guarantee you they would do it, and they don't even have the depth that the Reds have.

mth123
08-23-2010, 07:31 PM
1. Arroyo's option escalates to $13 Million based on hitting IP numbers. Since he's never missed a start, I'd assume the decision is $13 Million to keep him or $2 Million to tell him to leave.

2. Retaining Arroyo is the minimum the team should do to address its rotation in 2011.

If it could be done, I'd let him walk and make a deal involving Volquez or Cueto for a true number 1 starter.

New Guy
Cueto or Volquez
Bailey
Wood
Leake
Chapman

Since I don't think th Reds will be able to swing a deal for a number 1, I voted yes.

hebroncougar
08-23-2010, 07:31 PM
The type of pitcher the Reds would most likely be able to get in a trade would probably still have a good sized contract. That $9Mil that Arroyo will be eating could go a long way towards getting that Ace. I doubt the Reds would keep Arroyo AND trade for that Ace that the Reds could really use. Arroyo isn't an Ace, he is just paid like one.

You do know that Westbrook, Lohse, and Suppan all make more than Arroyo, right?

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 07:33 PM
You do know that Westbrook, Lohse, and Suppan all make more than Arroyo, right?

Yeah... ask me if I want any of them on my team in 2011. The answer would be No....No....and Noooo!

Nothing can be done about Lohse, but there is no way Westbrook or Suppan will be with the Cardinals next year.

TheNext44
08-23-2010, 07:39 PM
We may not need that "ace" to trade for. It would be nice to have, but I'm not so sure it's a necessity for us to contend. And that ace may well be already inhouse.


I agree.

I would bet better than even money that between Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Bailey, Leake and Wood, at least one of them will become a true #1 pitcher next season.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 07:53 PM
If the Reds were the Cardinals, I could see keeping a pitcher like Arroyo for pitching depth. With all of the young pitchers the Reds have, it just seems like you will be spending the extra money to block a young pitcher.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 07:58 PM
I would bet better than even money that between Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, Bailey, Leake and Wood, at least one of them will become a true #1 pitcher next season.

I agree 100% with this statement.

nemesis
08-23-2010, 08:04 PM
No. Unless they plan to deal him immediately afterward.

There is already a plethora of good, young, quality starting pitching on staff. Pitching entering their prime years. That $11 Million could go toward a huge impact bat in LF or the raises that will be dealt out to Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Volquez. Votto alone could eat that money in Arbitration if he wins the MVP. The concept that the team needs a veteran starter is overblown and out dated. The year Arroyo was acquired as a veteran starter he had 90 career starts and 33 wins, Harang had 90 and 31. They went on to win 14 and 16 games that year.

Cueto has reached that level. 85 and 31. Volquez, the presumptive #2 has 65 and 27 and most likely will be over 70 and 30 before years end. That leaves Wood as your #3 with 119 Minor League starts and 9 excellent Major League starts (6 QS), Bailey as your #4 and Leake your #5. Still leaving Chapman, Maloney, LeCure, Klinker, Fairel, Boxberger and possibly Thompson, Carroll, Hotchkiss and Buck as late season options. Too much depth to throw $11 million at a position of non need.

JaxRed
08-23-2010, 08:17 PM
I'm using the departure of Harang to fill most of that financial need.

SMcGavin
08-23-2010, 08:29 PM
Let's say the Reds rotation right now was Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, Wood. You've got Chapman in the wings, Maloney as rotation depth.

If Bronson Arroyo was a free agent, would I be in favor of signing him to a one year $10M deal? Not with all of those other starters on board. I like Bronson, and it's a tough decision given the incredible value he's provided this franchise, but I have to say no.

PuffyPig
08-23-2010, 08:32 PM
Let's say the Reds rotation right now was Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, Wood. You've got Chapman in the wings, Maloney as rotation depth.

If Bronson Arroyo was a free agent, would I be in favor of signing him to a one year $10M deal? Not with all of those other starters on board. I like Bronson, and it's a tough decision given the incredible value he's provided this franchise, but I have to say no.



Then trade him.

For a one year deal, he offers terrific value.

kaldaniels
08-23-2010, 08:34 PM
Let's say the Reds rotation right now was Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Leake, Wood. You've got Chapman in the wings, Maloney as rotation depth.

If Bronson Arroyo was a free agent, would I be in favor of signing him to a one year $10M deal? Not with all of those other starters on board. I like Bronson, and it's a tough decision given the incredible value he's provided this franchise, but I have to say no.

I would want a dependable vet in with those guys. Johnny Cueto is the surest thing amongst those guys, and I can't count on 7 innings from him most nights. So sure, you can play the "if Bronson was a free agent" scenario...but I'm not comfortable going into 2011 with what you have listed. Too risky for me.

RFS62
08-23-2010, 08:51 PM
I voted yes.

He'll be the veteran anchor of the staff. You CAN'T have too much pitching.

Plus, he's already said he wants to test the market for his last contract. That means he has to put up good numbers next year to draw the big bucks.

HokieRed
08-23-2010, 10:51 PM
Tonight makes it pretty obvious why you have to bring Bronson back. I don't think there will even be serious discussion about it in the FO. Next year's rotation, I hope, will be BA, Cueto, Homer, Wood, Chapman.

15fan
08-23-2010, 10:58 PM
Yep.

RedsManRick
08-23-2010, 11:05 PM
The type of pitcher the Reds would most likely be able to get in a trade would probably still have a good sized contract. That $9Mil that Arroyo will be eating could go a long way towards getting that Ace. I doubt the Reds would keep Arroyo AND trade for that Ace that the Reds could really use. Arroyo isn't an Ace, he is just paid like one.

What ace is making $11M based on a FA contract? Try nearly twice that.

oregonred
08-23-2010, 11:21 PM
Easy decision, $9M net for one more year of Arroyo is a bargain, especially given that EV is no certainty for 2011. Worst case is they pick up the option and then deal him at some point next season.

MattyHo4Life
08-23-2010, 11:27 PM
What ace is making $11M based on a FA contract? Try nearly twice that.

I never said that an Ace would cost $11Mil. If you trade Arroyo, then you have that much more to put towards paying an Ace, or a power hitter. If you guys like Bronson, then by all means you should keep him. I just find the young pitchers with tons of potential a lot more exciting and promising.

kaldaniels
08-23-2010, 11:30 PM
I never said that an Ace would cost $11Mil. If you trade Arroyo, then you have that much more to put towards paying an Ace, or a power hitter. If you guys like Bronson, then by all means you should keep him. I just find the young pitchers with tons of potential a lot more exciting and promising.

You said Arroyo is paid like an ace.

cumberlandreds
08-24-2010, 07:53 AM
It's a no brainer for the Reds to sign Arroyo. He's never missed a start and regularly has over 200 innings. How many pitchers can say that? He can be the veteran anchor next season to a pretty young rotation. You need a veteran presence when you have so many young pitchers. Saying all this I would wait until the offseason to extend him. You never know when an injury may occur. God forbid if he blew out an elbow or knee after you signed him in September. Then that would be a waste. Play your cards smartly and wait until the deadline to sign that extension.

reds1869
08-24-2010, 08:27 AM
Bronson Arroyo in 2011 will be very motivated. A contract year for a player who is likely going to be signing his last big contract in 2012 can only be a good thing. It would be very hard to replace Arroyo's all but assured production at the same cost. If he provides league average pitching over 200 ip he is well worth the investment. His numbers point definitively to him doing so; who else on the staff can honestly be said to provide a rock to anchor the staff on? Bronson may not be a true ace, but he is the type of guy I want around young pitchers.

MattyHo4Life
08-24-2010, 09:01 AM
You said Arroyo is paid like an ace.

You two are talking about different things. Arroyo is being paid like an Ace though (so is Lohse, Suppan and Westbrook). Someone mentioned that Arroyo will earn 13 Mil next year if he meets the incentives that he always meets. Compare that $13Mil to the $15Mil that Carpenter, Halladay, and Oswalt earn. It's more than the $9Mil that Hudson and Lincecum earn.It's more than the $8Mil that Haren earns. There are a lot of pitchers that are paid like Aces that don't deserve it. The difference in the Reds and other teams is that the Reds have a good core of oung pitchers and they don't need to overpay a mediocre pitcher like a lot of teams do. I wish the Cardinals had the choice of declining an option on Kyle Lohse next year, but they don't. The sad fact is that the Cardinals need Lohse and his big contract, because they don't have as many young pitchers waiting in the wings like the Reds do.

Always Red
08-24-2010, 10:36 AM
I voted yes.

He'll be the veteran anchor of the staff. You CAN'T have too much pitching.

Plus, he's already said he wants to test the market for his last contract. That means he has to put up good numbers next year to draw the big bucks.

I agree.

Easy decision for me- Arroyo is not by any means an ace, but he is the glue to this staff- always answering the bell, never hurt, always posting above average numbers.

Just like the position players benefit from having Rolen and Cabrera around, these young starters need a pro like Arroyo to show them how to really pitch- not just throw, as many of them seem to do.

Mario-Rijo
08-24-2010, 10:58 AM
It's a no brainer for the Reds to sign Arroyo. He's never missed a start and regularly has over 200 innings. How many pitchers can say that? He can be the veteran anchor next season to a pretty young rotation. You need a veteran presence when you have so many young pitchers. Saying all this I would wait until the offseason to extend him. You never know when an injury may occur. God forbid if he blew out an elbow or knee after you signed him in September. Then that would be a waste. Play your cards smartly and wait until the deadline to sign that extension.

It's not an extension it's an option in his current deal.

reds1869
08-24-2010, 11:12 AM
It's not an extension it's an option in his current deal.

True, but if he sustained an injury that caused him to miss a sizable chunk of next season it would be silly to do anything but pay the buyout. I hope the Reds don't have to make such a decision and we see Arroyo wearing #61 for Cincinnati again next summer.

PuffyPig
08-24-2010, 11:22 AM
You two are talking about different things. Arroyo is being paid like an Ace though (so is Lohse, Suppan and Westbrook). Someone mentioned that Arroyo will earn 13 Mil next year if he meets the incentives that he always meets. Compare that $13Mil to the $15Mil that Carpenter, Halladay, and Oswalt earn. It's more than the $9Mil that Hudson and Lincecum earn.It's more than the $8Mil that Haren earns. There are a lot of pitchers that are paid like Aces that don't deserve it. The difference in the Reds and other teams is that the Reds have a good core of oung pitchers and they don't need to overpay a mediocre pitcher like a lot of teams do. I wish the Cardinals had the choice of declining an option on Kyle Lohse next year, but they don't. The sad fact is that the Cardinals need Lohse and his big contract, because they don't have as many young pitchers waiting in the wings like the Reds do.

Why then did the Cards give Lohse Ace money when he clearly isn't, and never has been, an Ace?

And make no mistake, the cards do not need Lohse and his big contract. They would much rather use that money to sign a better pitcher.m

When a pitcher is a FA and gets a long term contract at $10M per seaosn, that is not Ace money. That's middle of the rotation salary, as Lohse, Suppan, Wolf etc have proven.

Ace's get $15-20M.

RedsManRick
08-24-2010, 12:00 PM
I never said that an Ace would cost $11Mil. If you trade Arroyo, then you have that much more to put towards paying an Ace, or a power hitter. If you guys like Bronson, then by all means you should keep him. I just find the young pitchers with tons of potential a lot more exciting and promising.

I agree with you in theory. But find me that ace who will sign for the Reds for $20M. I don't see him out there. In theory, that could be Cliff Lee, but he's the only one who fits the bill and I wouldn't want to gamble that he'll like the color of our money more than the Yankees (or whomever else) -- and that's assuming we can equal or surpass their bid.

It's not so much that I like Bronson. I certainly wouldn't give him a long term deal. But on a 1-year deal, I don't think it's likely the Reds could spend that money any better on a pitcher for 2011 without overpaying and/or locking up resources beyond 2011.

Can you decline the option and still offer arbitration? That's what I'd do if it were a possibility.

MattyHo4Life
08-24-2010, 01:50 PM
I agree with you in theory. But find me that ace who will sign for the Reds for $20M.

That is probably an impossible task. I'm defending against two theories here, trading and signing a FA. lol It is possible to trade for an Ace that makes around $11 Mil. You probably won't be able to sign one as a FA though.

MattyHo4Life
08-24-2010, 01:59 PM
Why then did the Cards give Lohse Ace money when he clearly isn't, and never has been, an Ace?

And make no mistake, the cards do not need Lohse and his big contract. They would much rather use that money to sign a better pitcher.m

When a pitcher is a FA and gets a long term contract at $10M per seaosn, that is not Ace money. That's middle of the rotation salary, as Lohse, Suppan, Wolf etc have proven.

Ace's get $15-20M.

They signed Lohse to that contract because they were being stupid. Just like Milwaukee was being stupid.

When a middle of the rotation pitcher signs a contract at $10M per season, then he is being overpaid, and the team almost always regrets it. The teams that usually do that don't have the young pitching depth that the Reds have.

fearofpopvol1
08-24-2010, 02:20 PM
Unless the Reds can find someone better for similar money, I say yes. I remember saying this previously, but I just do not believe that Walt will start next season without a legitimate veteran in the rotation. It's far too ballsy. The kids are going to go through some growing pains. Cueto seems to have made a big turn this year, but even he still gets pretty emotional on the mound.

What the Reds really need to do (if it's possible) is find a taker for Cordero. That alone would pay for Arroyo next year.