PDA

View Full Version : Should the Reds Pick Up Jonny Gomes' Option?



camisadelgolf
08-23-2010, 09:11 PM
Including performance bonuses, Jonny Gomes will likely have made $1.3M this year. He has a $200,000 buyout for next season, but if they pick up his option, they will owe him $1.75-2.5M based on his plate appearances. Should they pick it up? His offensive numbers aren't all that special, but if you're into the intangibles thing, he seems to bring it big-time. What do you think?

reds44
08-23-2010, 09:14 PM
I just don't think he's worth paying $2 mil too. I know it may seem like nothing, but it adds up.

Stubbs, Bruce, and Heisey are all coming back next year. I bet they can get Nix for realtively cheap too. There's four OFers right there.

I'd have very little problem with a starting OF of Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce next year. Nix can give Heisey or Stubbs a rest against tough RHP. Keep in mind Fraizer is on the brink as well.

Joseph
08-23-2010, 09:14 PM
No.

Unless he has a monster last month and a half I say spend the 2 mil elsewhere and go with Heisey, Stubbs, Bruce, Nix etc.

With the arbitration raises due this teams going to have to shed some marginal vets like this to make things work next year.

camisadelgolf
08-23-2010, 09:15 PM
I just don't think he's worth paying $2 mil too. I know it may seem like nothing, but it adds up.

Stubbs, Bruce, and Heisey are all coming back next year. I bet they can get Nix for realtively cheap too. There's four OFers right there.

I'd have very little problem with a starting OF of Heisey/Stubbs/Bruce next year. Nix can give Heisey or Stubbs a rest against tough RHP. Keep in mind Fraizer is on the brink as well.
What if it takes a million dollars to keep Nix around? Do you still want him?

Captain Hook
08-23-2010, 09:15 PM
No

I wouldn't mind not seeing him on the team right now although I guess he's useful as a PH or getting an occasional start against a lefty.

Scrap Irony
08-23-2010, 09:27 PM
No, they shouldn't re-up. Gomes' hot start has kept him in the lineup too long and Heisey should be just as good as a Nix platoon partner.

Or (hopefully) Alonso or Francisco become an elite LF bat (875 OPS) while playing passable defense.

I could really get behind an Alonso-Heisey-Bruce OF.

wally post
08-23-2010, 09:28 PM
I think clearly my mind says to not pay him, yet I have a feeling - if the Reds win it all it will be because of a Johnny Gomes, so I can't vote right now. LEt's talk after the season is over. :D

GADawg
08-23-2010, 09:32 PM
say what you want but the guy has been productive though admittedly it's been very streaky. Also I'd guess he's one of the most unselfish players I remember seeing...when he's not in there he's constantly supportive of whoever is in his spot and his hustle and intensity has to be infectious. Alot of folks here don't like him and don't believe in the whole rah rah or team chemistry thing but imo it's very very important.

in this day and age if he's willing to accept a half/part time role I don't think 2 million is a deal breaker

Brutus
08-23-2010, 09:35 PM
For next year, I would say there's probably no reason. The Reds can find a good outfield out of Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey and someone out of Nix, Francisco, Alonso, Balentien, Dorn, Edmonds (if he returns) or an offseason acquisition.

KronoRed
08-23-2010, 09:40 PM
No, no reason at all to spend that money on Gomes.

OnBaseMachine
08-23-2010, 10:43 PM
Heck no.

corkedbat
08-23-2010, 10:54 PM
I think I'd rather retain Balentien. Jimbo had a run of guys like Melvin Nieves, Juan Encarnacion, Jose Guillen and I think there may have been one or two more. OFers that had not really met their potential that Pants picked up on the cheap and saw thm blossom them blossomin a Reds uni. For some reason, I think of Balentein as having that kind of potential.

RedsManRick
08-23-2010, 11:04 PM
Wonder how this poll would have looked at the all-star break.

Chip R
08-23-2010, 11:38 PM
A lot of people were up in arms last off season that the Reds didn't offer Gomes arbitration. Heck, I would have re-signed him if they could get him for less than $2M but Walt was a shrewder judge of the market for Gomes than I was.

reds44
08-23-2010, 11:40 PM
say what you want but the guy has been productive though admittedly it's been very streaky. Also I'd guess he's one of the most unselfish players I remember seeing...when he's not in there he's constantly supportive of whoever is in his spot and his hustle and intensity has to be infectious. Alot of folks here don't like him and don't believe in the whole rah rah or team chemistry thing but imo it's very very important.

in this day and age if he's willing to accept a half/part time role I don't think 2 million is a deal breaker
Serious question: why do people single Gomes out for his hustle. Exactly what player on the Reds doesn't hustle?

fearofpopvol1
08-24-2010, 12:29 AM
The poll really should be conditional. I would vote yes if he wasn't going to start most games and was used more as a 4th/5th OF. I'd vote no if he was going to start most gamesas his value would drop. Problem is, it becomes Dusty's decision most likely and not Walt's.

GAC
08-24-2010, 05:39 AM
Wonder how this poll would have looked at the all-star break.

:p:


A lot of people were up in arms last off season that the Reds didn't offer Gomes arbitration. Heck, I would have re-signed him if they could get him for less than $2M but Walt was a shrewder judge of the market for Gomes than I was.

I agree. I have no problem if they let Gomes go. Just not so sure on the alternatives suggested as a sound solution, and is more like throwing mud up against the wall to see if it sticks. LF has become a revolving door for us.

It's the curse of Dunn! :p:

bucksfan2
08-24-2010, 09:10 AM
Here is the way I look at it.

The Reds need to upgrade their team this off season. There is no doubt that they have a very solid foundation built with a lot of young player coming into their own. But the issue becomes while they are a nice team right now they need another piece to become a great team. IMO the only positions that the Reds can improve on right now are TOR, SS, and LF. You aren't going to replace/move the likes of Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Stubbs, or Bruce. Their catching situation appears to be as solid as any team in baseball so it comes down to finding a TOR pitcher, a SS or a LF.

I would be perfectly fine if the Reds went out there and ran out a combo of Janish and Cozart as long as they improved the offense somewhere else, that being LF. To me Gomes doesn't provide that needed upgrade in offense. I like the player, and would like to see him back as a PH/5th OF type. But I want an impact bat to play LF for the Reds.

camisadelgolf
08-24-2010, 10:13 AM
Is there anyone here who would like to keep him if he'd stay at a lower price?

_Sir_Charles_
08-24-2010, 10:16 AM
I think clearly my mind says to not pay him, yet I have a feeling - if the Reds win it all it will be because of a Johnny Gomes, so I can't vote right now. LEt's talk after the season is over. :D

This. I've also got a sneaking suspicion that he'll go on a tear right around the end of the season. *crosses fingers*

BRM
08-24-2010, 10:18 AM
This. I've also got a sneaking suspicion that he'll go on a tear right around the end of the season. *crosses fingers*

I sure hope so. He's been brutal the last couple of months. I'd love to see him turn it around down the stretch.

edabbs44
08-24-2010, 10:34 AM
Serious question: why do people single Gomes out for his hustle. Exactly what player on the Reds doesn't hustle?

The guy on your avatar has been known to take a play or two off.

reds1869
08-24-2010, 10:54 AM
Unless Gomes is here to come off the bench I don't want him anywhere near Dusty's lineup card. I love Gomes and think he represents everything that is right and good, etc., etc. But his numbers don't lie: he is a streaky hitter with some pop and sub-par defense. He is fine as a backup who you ride when he is hot but that is not how he has been used most of the year.

Razor Shines
08-24-2010, 01:57 PM
Yeah resign him, Heisey hasn't hit any homers off any legit pitchers this year.:D

muddie
08-24-2010, 04:31 PM
I don't have a negative word about Gomes but the Reds have positioned themselves to be better next year through their minor league system and that's what they should go with. Gomes has been above expectations this year.

redsmetz
08-24-2010, 04:36 PM
Mine's an iffy "no". I'd have gone with a definite "maybe" had that been an option. I think I fall into the camp that thinks there is probably a less costly option that will provide the same production. Like Aaron, probably time to thank Jonny for his time and move on, although I won't lose any sleep if they buy him out and sign him to a lesser contract.

nate
08-24-2010, 04:48 PM
No. He's not even playing to his career numbers which are slightly above average and his defense is amongst the worst in the league. He seems like a solid dude and a hard worker but the fuel for his early season, month-long flash hasn't panned out (no pun intended.)

BRM
08-24-2010, 04:52 PM
No. He's not even playing to his career numbers which are slightly above average and his defense is amongst the worst in the league. He seems like a solid dude and a hard worker but the fuel for his early season, month-long flash hasn't panned out (no pun intended.)

You'd have to get rid of your mohawk if Jonny leaves.

nate
08-24-2010, 04:57 PM
You'd have to get rid of your mohawk if Jonny leaves.

It's OK, it's painted on.

Reds1
08-24-2010, 06:25 PM
AT AS break this would have been higher, but we've also seen Heisey can play along with Bruce and Stubbs. That's a big of high money for back up OF, but I do like him on the team, but the poll what done during a terrible time for him. With the team chemistry thing and the teamate he is I still would consider if I had more information.

RedLegSuperStar
08-24-2010, 06:44 PM
I voted yes.. but simply because if I voted no he'd be back

marcshoe
08-24-2010, 06:48 PM
In the offseason, I was all for bringing him back, mostly because I liked his power potential and thought his past numbers were largely the result of limited opportunity. I think, though, that this season has shown his true level. Looks as if he's no better than average, and the team needs another proven bat. Left Field's the best place to find one.

BRM
09-08-2010, 12:38 PM
From MLBTradeRumors (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/09/jonny-gomes-2011-option.html).


Jonny Gomes has already set career highs in games (126), plate appearances (482), runs (63), hits (112), doubles (22) and RBI (77). Reds manager Dusty Baker has been calling on Gomes more than ever and the left fielder has seen his slash line dip, possibly because he's facing more right-handed pitching than usual. Gomes' .262/.328/.436 line is about average, but his power has dropped off this year, especially in the second half.

The Reds can retain him for $1.75MM in 2011 or buy him out for $200K. They don't have the option of turning the option down and trying to re-sign him more cheaply through arbitration; Cincinnati must release the 29-year-old if they turn his option down. The Reds could sign Gomes after releasing him, but all 30 teams would be able to make bids, too.

Despite Gomes' struggles against right-handed pitching and less-than-brilliant defense (he posted negative UZRs every year from 2005-10), the Reds will likely have some interest in retaining him for a net cost of $1.55MM. However, they non-tendered him last winter after a season in which he hit 20 homers and posted an .879 OPS, so history suggests they aren't afraid of letting Gomes hit the open market. What do you think the Reds will do?

camisadelgolf
09-08-2010, 12:53 PM
If Edmonds somehow doesn't retire, you could platoon him in left with Heisey and keep Nix or someone similar on the bench. I really can't think of a good reason to keep Gomes around at that price, but I'm sure there are at least a couple teams out there that could use him.

Kc61
09-08-2010, 01:06 PM
If Edmonds somehow doesn't retire, you could platoon him in left with Heisey and keep Nix or someone similar on the bench. I really can't think of a good reason to keep Gomes around at that price, but I'm sure there are at least a couple teams out there that could use him.

Edmonds at this stage; Heisey; Nix; Gomes.

Reds should try and get a better starting left fielder.

BRM
09-08-2010, 01:29 PM
Edmonds at this stage; Heisey; Nix; Gomes.

Reds should try and get a better starting left fielder.

I agree.

HokieRed
09-08-2010, 01:34 PM
Volquez and Francisco to Baltimore for Nick Markakis. Pie can move to right for the O's, Scott can play left, the O's get a guy who can either DH or play 1b for them. They get a bat to replace Markakis that gives them the additional power they need, and which Markakis has not supplied this year. They also get a "potential TOR starter," to quote a lot of RZers (an opinion of Volquez that I do not share but which I hope the O's have). We get another left handed bat, another terrific defensive outfielder, a guy who should work very well in the 2 spot in the lineup. Maybe not the right thread for this but it's one approach to solving the LF situation (one different from the most desirable, IMHO, solution of moving Joey Votto and putting Alonso on 1b). More generally, defining the approaches to the choice of Gomes or Heisey seems to me far too conservative.

Will M
09-08-2010, 01:34 PM
2011 OF:
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
LF ???
OF Heisey
OF Nix, Dorn, etc (I'm not too worried about the 5th outfielder)

IMO Heisey is a bit like a RH version of Dickerson. A nice 4th outfielder but not an everyday player. I would like the Reds to go out & find a STUD to play LF. Package Alonso with others & get a guy who can bat in the middle of the lineup. Now, if that guy isn't out there a platoon of a LH bat with Heisey is ok. I just think with a weak hitting SS, one more year on Rolen & really a bit of unclear production from CF/RF that a stud LF would reaaaaally help the 2011 offense. If Alonso can play LF I suspect the team would pencil in a bit of an Alonso/Hesiey platoon for 2011. If Alonso can't play LF then he has to be moved.

Now, in the above scenario there is no room for Jonny. Heisey is my RH bench outfielder.

RedsManRick
09-08-2010, 02:15 PM
Put me in the no camp. It's not that he's too expensive or not worth a roster spot. It's that I don't have any confidence in Dusty (or whomever else) to use him as a bench bat and occasional platoon guy as opposed to a starter. Plus, there are too many other possible guys who can fill that spot and keeping him basically precludes the possibility of acquiring an impact LF.

RedEye
09-08-2010, 02:16 PM
IMO Heisey is a bit like a RH version of Dickerson. A nice 4th outfielder but not an everyday player.

It continues to baffle me that folks aren't willing to give Heisey a chance to start. He's the best in-house option IMO, and its not really close.

Kc61
09-08-2010, 02:21 PM
It continues to baffle me that folks aren't willing to give Heisey a chance to start. He's the best in-house option IMO, and its not really close.

Funny. It baffles me that folks want Heisey as the starting or platoon left fielder.

It's an offensive position with a need for a major bat.

Heisey's value is his ability to play three outfield positions well and his energy. Don't see him as a starting outfielder on the Reds.

Kc61
09-08-2010, 02:25 PM
Volquez and Francisco to Baltimore for Nick Markakis. .

I'm a Francisco fan and think he's hit well in spot duty for the Reds. I expected it, I think he can hit major league pitching with power.

But I'd favor a trade such as this, perhaps with somewhat different guys going to the O's. Markakis should be a target for the Reds this off-season. He adds lefty hitting (sorely needed), defense, and OBP. Three things the Reds can use in the outfield.

Good idea.

mace
09-08-2010, 02:43 PM
Frankly, I'm stunned by this poll--by how lopsided the sentiment is. Agreed, Gomes is not an artist in the outfield. But in the couple handfuls of Cardinal games I've watched the past couple years, I believe I've seen Matt Holliday botch more balls than I've seen Gomes screw up in a full schedule. (Not to mention the significant number of outstanding plays he's made, including the one the other day when he crashed into the fence catching a foul ball.) And yes, he's not the most polished hitter in the league. But the man has been productive--some would even say inspiring--and I believe the Reds are a better team for having him this year. His teammates seem to think so. It confounds me that the vast majority feels his contributions are not worth $1.55 million.

thatcoolguy_22
09-08-2010, 03:42 PM
I like Gomes as a rah rah guy and 4/5th OF. He provides the power bat off the bench and is not ridiculously expensive. 2 million of not my money being spent on a veteran power bat is a good thing (I can not believe I just typed that).

If he is not kept I would like to see a legitimate power bat brought in for LF. Heisey becomes the 4th OF and maybe Frazier takes over Cairo's role plus 5th OF.

I'm fine either way WJ decides, but I'm hoping Gomes sticks around.

bucksfan2
09-08-2010, 04:03 PM
I like Gomes as a rah rah guy and 4/5th OF. He provides the power bat off the bench and is not ridiculously expensive. 2 million of not my money being spent on a veteran power bat is a good thing (I can not believe I just typed that).

If he is not kept I would like to see a legitimate power bat brought in for LF. Heisey becomes the 4th OF and maybe Frazier takes over Cairo's role plus 5th OF.

I'm fine either way WJ decides, but I'm hoping Gomes sticks around.

I mentioned this in another thread but I would be disappointed if the Reds didn't improve the LF spot this off season. I like Gomes more than most on RZ but I think more than anything else he proved he isn't an everyday OF.

That said I am not opposed to Gomes being brought back, even at his option price, as a 5th OF/PH type of player. I think Gomes can be a useful player to a good baseball team. If the Reds are going to spend money then I would want Gomes back, as long as he isn't taking up FA funds.

BRM
09-08-2010, 05:07 PM
Frankly, I'm stunned by this poll--by how lopsided the sentiment is. Agreed, Gomes is not an artist in the outfield. But in the couple handfuls of Cardinal games I've watched the past couple years, I believe I've seen Matt Holliday botch more balls than I've seen Gomes screw up in a full schedule. (Not to mention the significant number of outstanding plays he's made, including the one the other day when he crashed into the fence catching a foul ball.) And yes, he's not the most polished hitter in the league. But the man has been productive--some would even say inspiring--and I believe the Reds are a better team for having him this year. His teammates seem to think so. It confounds me that the vast majority feels his contributions are not worth $1.55 million.

I think if the Reds brought him back as the 4th/5th outfielder next year, most of RZ would be fine with it. As the starting leftfielder? Not so much.

camisadelgolf
09-08-2010, 05:28 PM
I think if the Reds brought him back as the 4th/5th outfielder next year, most of RZ would be fine with it. As the starting leftfielder? Not so much.
Would Jonny Gomes be okay with it? I wouldn't mind it as long as it doesn't have a negative impact on the clubhouse.

BRM
09-08-2010, 05:33 PM
Would Jonny Gomes be okay with it? I wouldn't mind it as long as it doesn't have a negative impact on the clubhouse.

I have no idea if he'd be cool with it or not. Don't really care honestly. Walt should do what's best for the Reds. Personally, I'm hoping he seeks an upgrade for LF this offseason.

edabbs44
09-08-2010, 06:08 PM
No issues with picking up the option and no issues with letting him walk if they can do better on the FA market.

BRM
09-08-2010, 06:12 PM
I'm confident Walt can find a better player. The question will be the price tag. How high can he afford to go, in either dollars or prospects? We'll find out this winter I suppose.

Ron Madden
09-09-2010, 02:54 AM
Would Jonny Gomes be okay with it? I wouldn't mind it as long as it doesn't have a negative impact on the clubhouse.

I like Gomes as a RH bat off the bench 4th/5th OF. He should be happy for the opportunity. The Reds were the only club to give him a serious offer last off season. My only concern in bringing him back is Dusty giving anyone else a fair shot as starting LFer unless Walt signs or trades for an obvious upgrade.

REDREAD
09-09-2010, 11:20 AM
I'm going to vote yes..

Let me explain.. I'd love to have someone better in LF, but I'm not sure Heisley is the answer. I guess I would be conservative and pick up Gomes' option, and continue to look for an upgrade.. Having Gomes gives the team OF depth. I doubt Votto ever moves to LF, and the Reds without Gomes are pretty thin in the OF.

If a minor leaguer/rookie (including Heisley) seizes the LF job next year from Gomes, that would be awesome, but right now, I think paying 1.5 million (net) for Gomes is a pretty good bargain. It won't kill the team to sit that salary on the bench. I also have faith in Dusty to do the right thing. If Dusty is given a better option, he will use it.

BRM
09-09-2010, 11:45 AM
56.8% think the Reds will pick up the option, according to the MLBTradeRumors poll.

oneupper
09-09-2010, 11:53 AM
I'm going to say no, although I was all for it in May.
Get a better bat. If that's not possible, use a cheaper option.
Money is going to be tight if we want to keep core players. It may be "only" $1,5 million, but a million here and a million there. Pretty soon we're talking about some serious cash. :)

WebScorpion
09-09-2010, 11:20 PM
I voted no, but if he OPSes 1.000+ for the rest of the season and rakes throughout the post-season I reserve the right to change my vote. ;) Currently, I'm thinking Jocketty should offer Volquez straight up for Josh Hamilton in Texas...do you think they'd bite? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-taunt013.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

OnBaseMachine
09-14-2010, 10:19 PM
Update on Gomes:

Splits by month:

April - .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS
May - .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS
June - .244/.304/.400 - .704 OPS
July - .240/.288/.285 - .673 OPS
August - .229/.357/.343 - .700 OPS
September - .222/.314/.333 - .647 OPS

I can't tell you how sick and tired I am of watching Jonny Gomes. He had two of the worst atbats tonight thta I have ever seen from a major leaguer. Not to mention his lazy play that allowed Chris Young to score from third in the fourth inning. I wish the Reds would just realize Gomes is a well below average player and replace him in LF.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 10:39 PM
Update on Gomes:

Splits by month:

April - .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS
May - .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS
June - .244/.304/.400 - .704 OPS
July - .240/.288/.285 - .673 OPS
August - .229/.357/.343 - .700 OPS
September - .222/.314/.333 - .647 OPS

I can't tell you how sick and tired I am of watching Jonny Gomes. He had two of the worst atbats tonight thta I have ever seen from a major leaguer. Not to mention his lazy play that allowed Chris Young to score from third in the fourth inning. I wish the Reds would just realize Gomes is a well below average player and replace him in LF.

There's no one to replace him with. Nix & Edmonds are on the DL. Heisey has been even worse offensively than Gomes. Balentien wasn't healthy enough to play the field.

What would you do? There's nothing that can be done as far as an upgrade. I don't see the point in worrying about it. Clearly Gomes is the guy for the rest of this year.

OnBaseMachine
09-14-2010, 10:45 PM
There's no one to replace him with. Nix & Edmonds are on the DL. Heisey has been even worse offensively than Gomes. Balentien wasn't healthy enough to play the field.

What would you do? There's nothing that can be done as far as an upgrade. I don't see the point in worrying about it. Clearly Gomes is the guy for the rest of this year.

At least Heisey provides defense. Gomes provides nothing. Heck, put Alonso out there. He can't be any worse defensively than Gomes. Edmonds is close to returning according to Fay, play him out there when he returns. Anybody but Gomes.

WVRedsFan
09-14-2010, 10:49 PM
Once again, no.

HokieRed
09-14-2010, 10:55 PM
Seems to me both Gomes and Heisey have made the argument that next year's left fielder is not currently on this team.

alloverjr
09-14-2010, 10:59 PM
Seems to me both Gomes and Heisey have made the argument that next year's left fielder is not currently on this team.

Maybe. Although if LF'er Alonso is so bad that his apparent ML bat won't carry him, maybe a swap of good young talent will get them a solid 7 man. Kid's never going to play 1B here.

If they have to go the FA route, I'd give the job to Heisey and tell him to bunt.

Mario-Rijo
09-14-2010, 11:03 PM
If we don't deal Alonso he definitely needs to shorten up that swing. But I suspect he will a part of a package for an upgrade somewhere and LF is probably the most likely scenario. Maybe they will sign Carl Crawford, he's a Dusty kind of guy.

Brutus
09-14-2010, 11:04 PM
At least Heisey provides defense. Gomes provides nothing. Heck, put Alonso out there. He can't be any worse defensively than Gomes. Edmonds is close to returning according to Fay, play him out there when he returns. Anybody but Gomes.

Heisey is way more lost than Gomes. Defensively it's not a comparison, but fortunately the Reds are pretty strong on defense everywhere else.

If Heisey weren't so completely lost at the plate, I'd agree with you. But he's not, so I've accepted that Gomes will be the guy the rest of the season and I'm fine with that. He's still enough of a hitter that he could go on one of his tears he's notorious for. If he starts doing that in about a week, it will be rather timely.

VR
09-14-2010, 11:04 PM
Update on Gomes:

Splits by month:

April - .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS
May - .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS
June - .244/.304/.400 - .704 OPS
July - .240/.288/.285 - .673 OPS
August - .229/.357/.343 - .700 OPS
September - .222/.314/.333 - .647 OPS

I can't tell you how sick and tired I am of watching Jonny Gomes. He had two of the worst atbats tonight thta I have ever seen from a major leaguer. Not to mention his lazy play that allowed Chris Young to score from third in the fourth inning. I wish the Reds would just realize Gomes is a well below average player and replace him in LF.

I've really tried to bite my tongue to not be the dead horse beater on Gomes. There have been injuries, so Dusty's hand has been forced lately. But yeah, he is just a millstone to the offense right now....and has always been very poor on D.
He was such a strong contributor the first few months of the year....when he wasn't trying to hit everything to Memphis. I haven't seen a hitter digress in the bigs like this in recent memory.
I think he's now best suited as a #7 hitter vs. lefties.

Part of the problem is Jonny abandoning a major league plate approach.

Even more frustrating has been and will be Dusty continuing to run him out there batting 4th or 5th against major league pitching.

I'm cheering for the guy...but he is currently a "0" tool outfielder, and there just isn't any disputing that fact.

alloverjr
09-14-2010, 11:07 PM
He's still enough of a hitter that he could go on one of his tears he's notorious for.

Sorry, this part made me chuckle. :p:

OnBaseMachine
09-14-2010, 11:10 PM
I've really tried to bite my tongue to not be the dead horse beater on Gomes. But yeah, he is just a millstone to the offense right now....and has always been very poor on D.


Same here. But his atbats tonight frustrated the heck out of me, especially the atbat in the 9th inning. I'm trying to figure out why he is still batting 5th ahead of Jay Bruce. With the exception of May, Gomes has been one of the worst starting position players in the league this season. Jonny seems like a nice dude, but I hope this is his last season with the Reds. I wouldn't mind having him on the team as strictly a pinch-hitter, but we both know that won't happen.

fearofpopvol1
09-14-2010, 11:39 PM
Gomes has been a -0.4 WAR and UZR rates him as a -14.7 with the glove.

Heisey on the other hand for the season is already 1 WAR. UZR has him as +3.9 with the glove. That's with fewer ABs. That is an enormous difference in value.

The other intangible difference is Dusty bats Heisey 7th or 8th when he plays, whereas Gomes bats 5th. That could be an extra AB for Bruce or Stubbs or someone that is clearly hitting the ball better than Gomes is or putting them in important RBI situations.

For right now, give me Heisey every day of the week over Gomes.

sivman17
09-15-2010, 12:07 AM
I think we all can agree Gomes is terrible. We can also agree there isn't really another option, unless they do something in the off-season.

I still cannot believe Alonso is that slow that he can't play LF. There are so many bad fielding left fielders (Gomes, Dunn when he played LF, ManRam, Burrell, Holliday), and he must be slower and worse than them. That's embarrassing. He should lose 15 lbs in the off-season and learn how to not be such a slow, fat tub of lard.

fearofpopvol1
09-15-2010, 12:21 AM
I think we all can agree Gomes is terrible. We can also agree there isn't really another option, unless they do something in the off-season.

I still cannot believe Alonso is that slow that he can't play LF. There are so many bad fielding left fielders (Gomes, Dunn when he played LF, ManRam, Burrell, Holliday), and he must be slower and worse than them. That's embarrassing. He should lose 15 lbs in the off-season and learn how to not be such a slow, fat tub of lard.

I'll take Heisey and his above average glove over Gomes. At least Heisey does something right. Heisey is a plus defender in LF.

VR
09-15-2010, 12:56 AM
I'll take Heisey and his above average glove over Gomes. At least Heisey does something right. Heisey is a plus defender in LF.

Agreed, 100%. And Heisey is no great shakes.

corkedbat
09-15-2010, 12:57 AM
I gotta feeling that while the Redszone have said the team needs upgrades at C, SS, CF, LF and the starting rotation, I think the reds are contents with Stubbs in CF, some conbination of Cabrera/Janish/Cozart @ SS and Hernandez/Hanigan at catcher to Mes forces his way on the 25-man. I also believe that Jocketty is content to pickup Bronson's option and go with the young guns in the rotation.

I think you will see Walt try very hard this offseason to add the best offensive bat he can find to LF I think if they really considered Yonder a viable option, you would have seen him there more in Louisville and playing there now.
There is the off chance that they could send him to winterball somewhere for a crash course and see how he fares and I could see them holding on to him for another year to see if they can't get Joey inked to a LTC before dealing him. I've got a feeling though that they will try to deal him over the winter (most likely to an American team) and tey to get a young all-aroungoutfielder that they really like and can grow with the current group of players.

Ron Madden
09-15-2010, 03:15 AM
I've always liked Gomes as a 4th/5th outfielder/RH bat off the bench.

I hate the fact that Dusty feels the need to keep hitting him 5th in the lineup.

I'd like to see Votto, Rolen, Bruce in the middle a little more often.

Chip R
09-15-2010, 09:04 AM
He should lose 15 lbs in the off-season and learn how to not be such a slow, fat tub of lard.


Nice analysis. You certainly bring a lot to this message board.

BRM
09-15-2010, 09:10 AM
Neither guy (Gomes or Heisey) should be batting any higher than 7th or 8th. Given how bad Heisey has been at the plate, I'm just not sure there's much of a difference in which one plays right now. Gomes has been awful offensively, Heisey has been even worse. Heisey has a clear edge defensively. Who has the overall advantage? Probably Heisey, by a hair. Not really enough for me to get worked up over. Get Gomes out of the middle of the lineup though.

RANDY IN INDY
09-15-2010, 09:17 AM
Nice analysis. You certainly bring a lot to this message board.

Agree.

lollipopcurve
09-15-2010, 09:37 AM
April - .217/.254/.367 - .621 OPS
May - .364/.420/.636 - 1.056 OPS
June - .244/.304/.400 - .704 OPS
July - .240/.288/.285 - .673 OPS
August - .229/.357/.343 - .700 OPS
September - .222/.314/.333 - .647 OPS

Speaks for itself.

I'd like to see Alonso get some time out there -- how bad can he be?

Heath
09-15-2010, 09:54 AM
Didn't Juan Francisco play some LF? If Carlos Lee can play LF, why not Juan?

Someone mentioned Carl Crawford. Please don't again. I don't need the disappointment when he signs with the Yankees.

camisadelgolf
09-15-2010, 10:01 AM
Nice analysis. You certainly bring a lot to this message board.


Didn't Juan Francisco play some LF? If Carlos Lee can play LF, why not Juan?

Someone mentioned Carl Crawford. Please don't again. I don't need the disappointment when he signs with the Yankees.

Yeah, Francisco has played some left field. His range is lacking, but he has a rocket of an arm.

Although I don't have a link handy, I believe I read that Carl Crawford is not interested in a city like Cincinnati. It would be a surprise if the Reds could afford him anyway.

pedro
09-15-2010, 12:07 PM
If they drop it on the floor on the way to throwing it in the trash.

camisadelgolf
09-15-2010, 12:12 PM
If they drop it on the floor on the way to throwing it in the trash.
I agree. We need to avoid the risk of someone accidentally dropping an uncapped pen directly onto the contract and unknowingly creating a scribbled signature that appears close to Walt's.

http://doodiepants.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/kill-it-with-fire-motivator.jpg

VR
09-15-2010, 12:43 PM
Jonny is one of the league leaders for swinging at pitches outside the zone, at 37.4%. Guys you'd expect like Guerrero, Sandoval, Francoeur, Soriano are all up there with him.

Of the top 75 in that category....only Ryan Howard has a lower %contact when swinging at those pitches than Jonny.

Couple that with these two gems.

His infield fly ball % of 13.7 has him 7th in the league.

He also leads the major leagues in infield hit % at 15.2%.
Drew Stubbs is second at 12.9%
Gabby Sanchez is 3rd at 11%

A lot of his hits lately as well are flares off the fists into right center.

He's got very very poor plate discipline....coupled with the inability to do anything with balls outside the zone when he does swing at them.




I think he can have a decent game.....if he can start playing within himself again, hitting to right, and being patient. Continuing to run him out there batting 4th or 5th is just crazy.

The hitting balls to the moon strategy hasn't worked....and I'm hoping someone realizes that before they fill out a playoff lineup card.

BRM
09-15-2010, 12:53 PM
The hitting balls to the moon strategy hasn't worked....and I'm hoping someone realizes that before they fill out a playoff lineup card.

I fully expect him to be hitting 5th come playoff time. The only thing that may change that is Jim Edmonds getting back healthy and taking over LF.

sivman17
09-15-2010, 01:44 PM
Although I don't have a link handy, I believe I read that Carl Crawford is not interested in a city like Cincinnati. It would be a surprise if the Reds could afford him anyway.

Wasn't Crawford the one complaining about the low attendance in Tampa? There's no way he would want to come here. Bringing in 12k while in first place in September isn't going to cut it.

sivman17
09-15-2010, 01:51 PM
Nice analysis. You certainly bring a lot to this message board.

Sorry, sir. I guess next time I will put it more eloquently for you.

If Mr. Yonder Alonso would like to participate in the starting lineup more frequently and see ample playing time, it behooves him to take the proper steps to ensure that his lack of mobility is no longer an issue.

edabbs44
09-15-2010, 02:27 PM
Gomes has been a -0.4 WAR and UZR rates him as a -14.7 with the glove.

Heisey on the other hand for the season is already 1 WAR. UZR has him as +3.9 with the glove. That's with fewer ABs. That is an enormous difference in value.

The other intangible difference is Dusty bats Heisey 7th or 8th when he plays, whereas Gomes bats 5th. That could be an extra AB for Bruce or Stubbs or someone that is clearly hitting the ball better than Gomes is or putting them in important RBI situations.

For right now, give me Heisey every day of the week over Gomes.

Heisey's OPS by inning this year:

1st: .350
2nd: .454
3rd: .298
4th: .426
5th: .301
6th: .481

That is OPS, not OBP or SLG. In those 6 innings, he has 107 PAs. He has 0 HR and 4 RBI. So in the first 2/3s of the game when Heisey is starting, we have an extra pitcher in the lineup without the sacrifices. He has been the definition of automatic out. For all the bellyaching about Gomes' OPS by month, his worst months still exceed what Heisey is doing as a starter by 50%*.

Now, as a lark, I just looked at Gomes' numbers by inning:

1st: 1.053
2nd: .528
3rd: .981
4th: .909
5th: .891
6th: .960

In those innings, Gomes has 340 PAs. He has 12 HR and 54 RBI.

Take into account the defensive fun that we experience when Gomes is in the game, and maybe the play is to start Gomes and replace him with Heisey in the field around the 7th inning.


* Not an official number, but let's agree that the difference is large.

sivman17
09-15-2010, 02:44 PM
An interesting stat on Heisey..

When leading off an inning:
.356/.431/.622/1.054 in 45 ABs

Perhaps he should lead off

camisadelgolf
09-15-2010, 02:48 PM
Chris Heisey as a pinch-hitter:

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
27 21 7 8 0 1 4 7 0 0 4 6 .381 .481 1.048 1.529

Maybe he should never start a game.

fearofpopvol1
09-15-2010, 02:56 PM
Heisey's OPS by inning this year:

1st: .350
2nd: .454
3rd: .298
4th: .426
5th: .301
6th: .481

That is OPS, not OBP or SLG. In those 6 innings, he has 107 PAs. He has 0 HR and 4 RBI. So in the first 2/3s of the game when Heisey is starting, we have an extra pitcher in the lineup without the sacrifices. He has been the definition of automatic out. For all the bellyaching about Gomes' OPS by month, his worst months still exceed what Heisey is doing as a starter by 50%*.

Now, as a lark, I just looked at Gomes' numbers by inning:

1st: 1.053
2nd: .528
3rd: .981
4th: .909
5th: .891
6th: .960

In those innings, Gomes has 340 PAs. He has 12 HR and 54 RBI.

Take into account the defensive fun that we experience when Gomes is in the game, and maybe the play is to start Gomes and replace him with Heisey in the field around the 7th inning.


* Not an official number, but let's agree that the difference is large.

That's cherrypicking stats. You can't just look at certain innings. You've just eliminated 1/3 of each game. The whole picture is necessary.

I will say this again...UZR has Gomes at -15 with the glove. -15!!! That makes him officially one of the worst left fielders in baseball with the glove. Any difference Gomes provides with his bat is completely negated by his glove.

Cyclone792
09-15-2010, 02:57 PM
Gomes shouldn't be seeing the lineup at this point. He's been one of the worst overall players in the National League for over three months now. If he started the season by putting up the numbers he's put up since June 1st, he'd be long gone.

This team needs to get both Edmonds and Nix healthy. Mix those two in with a platoon of Heisey in left - and that's probably as good as we're going to get at this point. The one clear benefit is all of those three are far superior defenders over Gomes.

edabbs44
09-15-2010, 08:28 PM
Gomes shouldn't be seeing the lineup at this point. He's been one of the worst overall players in the National League for over three months now. If he started the season by putting up the numbers he's put up since June 1st, he'd be long gone.

This team needs to get both Edmonds and Nix healthy. Mix those two in with a platoon of Heisey in left - and that's probably as good as we're going to get at this point. The one clear benefit is all of those three are far superior defenders over Gomes.

I wouldn't argue if Nix or Edmonds was the LF vs RHPs, but Heisey should not be starting vs anyone at this stage. Gomes is your starter vs LHPs, without a doubt.

edabbs44
09-15-2010, 08:33 PM
That's cherrypicking stats. You can't just look at certain innings. You've just eliminated 1/3 of each game. The whole picture is necessary.

I will say this again...UZR has Gomes at -15 with the glove. -15!!! That makes him officially one of the worst left fielders in baseball with the glove. Any difference Gomes provides with his bat is completely negated by his glove.

I'm not sure that this is cherry picking. What it tells me is that Heisey is having a very tough time vs starting pitchers. Like where he resembles a pitcher at the plate.

fearofpopvol1
09-15-2010, 11:22 PM
I'm not sure that this is cherry picking. What it tells me is that Heisey is having a very tough time vs starting pitchers. Like where he resembles a pitcher at the plate.

So does that mean Gomes can't be trusted against relievers? Why didn't you just post all 9 inning stats for both players? Is 200 PAs for Heisey enough to make a very conclusive assessment? Does sample size play a part at all? Especially when we're talking about a rookie?

edabbs44
09-16-2010, 09:05 AM
So does that mean Gomes can't be trusted against relievers? Why didn't you just post all 9 inning stats for both players? Is 200 PAs for Heisey enough to make a very conclusive assessment? Does sample size play a part at all? Especially when we're talking about a rookie?

We are talking about the now, right? Like who should be the LF for the rest of the season and the playoffs?

Heisey has shown zero ability to hit starting pitchers this season. Zero. And that's all we have to go off of in his major league career. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, maybe it is him struggling with guys with a wider arsenal of pitches. Maybe it is something else. I would guess that the scouts, GM, manager, coaches and other Cincy FO employees have a better handle on that that either you or I do.

If they feel as if Gomes gives them a better chance to win, then I am with them. If they feel as if that Heisey does that at this stage, I am with them as well. But I'm thinking that Gomes will be their choice.

Let me ask you a question...do you think that it is an issue of sample size? Do you think that chances are in his favor to turn it around for the rest of the season and even out those stats? I am a believer in this theory if there is reason to believe it. I thought that there was a solid chance that we'd see a 2nd half bounce in Cabrera to get back to his normal levels, do you actually think that Heisey can turn it around in the next month or so and become an asset at the plate? Or will he continually hit like Harang?

Now if Nix or Edmonds come back, I think a decision has to be made. But Gomes is you starter vs LHPs, I would imagine.

fearofpopvol1
09-16-2010, 02:49 PM
We are talking about the now, right? Like who should be the LF for the rest of the season and the playoffs?

Heisey has shown zero ability to hit starting pitchers this season. Zero. And that's all we have to go off of in his major league career. Maybe it is a statistical anomaly, maybe it is him struggling with guys with a wider arsenal of pitches. Maybe it is something else. I would guess that the scouts, GM, manager, coaches and other Cincy FO employees have a better handle on that that either you or I do.

If they feel as if Gomes gives them a better chance to win, then I am with them. If they feel as if that Heisey does that at this stage, I am with them as well. But I'm thinking that Gomes will be their choice.

Let me ask you a question...do you think that it is an issue of sample size? Do you think that chances are in his favor to turn it around for the rest of the season and even out those stats? I am a believer in this theory if there is reason to believe it. I thought that there was a solid chance that we'd see a 2nd half bounce in Cabrera to get back to his normal levels, do you actually think that Heisey can turn it around in the next month or so and become an asset at the plate? Or will he continually hit like Harang?

Now if Nix or Edmonds come back, I think a decision has to be made. But Gomes is you starter vs LHPs, I would imagine.

Heisey's minor league numbers would suggest that he's a better hitter that what he has shown over 200 ABs. The only way to find out is giving him ABs. What I have said continually is that Gomes' numbers have not been too much better and he has had 300+ more ABs than Heisey has. Outside of May, he has been terrible. If Gomes hasn't turned it around after 500 ABs, why should he get 100 more? I'm suggesting that if Heisey had 500 ABs like Gomes has, his numbers would be better than Gomes' have been.

Further, you add to that the fact that Heisey is a plus defender in LF while Gomes is ranked as one of the worst LFs in baseball, and I give the nod to Heisey. At least Heisey can contribute positively on one side of the ball.

Also, let's not confuse the front office with Dusty. The decision to play Gomes (and to bat him 4th and 5th) is 100% on Dusty.

LoganBuck
09-16-2010, 04:10 PM
Jim Edmunds hit today! Perhaps a sign that he is ready to play the field, and save us from the Gnome!

edabbs44
09-16-2010, 08:02 PM
Heisey's minor league numbers would suggest that he's a better hitter that what he has shown over 200 ABs. The only way to find out is giving him ABs. What I have said continually is that Gomes' numbers have not been too much better and he has had 300+ more ABs than Heisey has. Outside of May, he has been terrible. If Gomes hasn't turned it around after 500 ABs, why should he get 100 more? I'm suggesting that if Heisey had 500 ABs like Gomes has, his numbers would be better than Gomes' have been.

I disagree with you on that, and I think that Heisey's floor is way below Gomes' at this stage. Gomes has definitely been a disappointment to most (including me) since May, but thinking that Heisey is an offensive upgrade to anyone right now is a huge stretch. And using his minor league numbers do nothing for me in this argument, since he was fairly average outside of one two month stretch in AA. Gomes has shown that he is able to hit major league pitching, Heisey has not and it isn't for lack of chances. He'll get his chance next year, for now he's best suited in his current role.


Further, you add to that the fact that Heisey is a plus defender in LF while Gomes is ranked as one of the worst LFs in baseball, and I give the nod to Heisey. At least Heisey can contribute positively on one side of the ball.

Heisey is overrated on defense, he's had his share of misplays also. Sure he is better than Gomes in the field, but I'm thinking the plus tag gets thrown around a little too easily with him.


Also, let's not confuse the front office with Dusty. The decision to play Gomes (and to bat him 4th and 5th) is 100% on Dusty.

Kind of agree, but if Walt was steadfastly against it I am sure he'd make a "suggestion" regarding Gomes.

fearofpopvol1
09-16-2010, 10:45 PM
I disagree with you on that, and I think that Heisey's floor is way below Gomes' at this stage.

Based on what statistics? Gomes has been a sub .700 bat during the same period of time that Heisey has struggled. And has played horrific defense.


Gomes has definitely been a disappointment to most (including me) since May, but thinking that Heisey is an offensive upgrade to anyone right now is a huge stretch.

I've never claimed that he would an offensive upgrade for sure. He may not be, but his glove will be an upgrade and given how little data we have with his bad in the majors, we don't know if he will or won't be an upgrade.


And using his minor league numbers do nothing for me in this argument, since he was fairly average outside of one two month stretch in AA.

Really? Can you tell me what the average OPS is for a minor league career. Heisey OPS'ed .825 for his entire minor league career. That's below average? For a guy that played CF? Minor league numbers are all that we can objectively go off of until Heisey has accumulated enough bats at the Show.


Gomes has shown that he is able to hit major league pitching, Heisey has not and it isn't for lack of chances. He'll get his chance next year, for now he's best suited in his current role.

Heisey has shown he can't hit and it isn't for lack of chances? Really? 200 ABs? That's not a lack of chances? That's absurd. For the record, Gomes has never been a full time player. He has shown he can hit when he's a part time player, usually platooning. This year has solidified the fact that he is not a full-time player and can not handle the gig, on either side of the ball.

And to be clear, I've never claimed Heisey IS the answer for the future in LF. I'd prefer a bigger bat actually. But if the choice is Heisey vs. Gomes, I'll take Heisey.


Heisey is overrated on defense, he's had his share of misplays also. Sure he is better than Gomes in the field, but I'm thinking the plus tag gets thrown around a little too easily with him.

Overrated according to who? To you? Again, Gomes for the season has been -14.7 according to UZR in left field. Heisey has been +3.9 according to UZR playing CF/RF/LF...and did we forget to mention he is a rookie? Can you not see the large gap? Has Heisey been perfect? No, but he's also a rookie and he still plays defense to the tune of almost 19 runs better with the glove. That is significant.

It's pretty simple...do you want the guy who with the bad bat and the bad glove or the guy with the bad bat and the good glove? I'll take the latter.

edabbs44
09-16-2010, 11:06 PM
Based on what statistics? Gomes has been a sub .700 bat during the same period of time that Heisey has struggled. And has played horrific defense.

Gomes has had success on the major league level. Heisey has had success versus Pirates relievers.


I've never claimed that he would an offensive upgrade for sure. He may not be, but his glove will be an upgrade and given how little data we have with his bad in the majors, we don't know if he will or won't be an upgrade.

He could very easily be a .200 OPS downgrade, as sick as that sounds. I'm taking my chances with Gomes' mitt.


Really? Can you tell me what the average OPS is for a minor league career. Heisey OPS'ed .825 for his entire minor league career. That's below average? For a guy that played CF? Minor league numbers are all that we can objectively go off of until Heisey has accumulated enough bats at the Show.

Heisey's minor league numbers, outside of 2 months in AA, are nothing to get excited about.


Heisey has shown he can't hit and it isn't for lack of chances? Really? 200 ABs? That's not a lack of chances? That's absurd. For the record, Gomes has never been a full time player. He has shown he can hit when he's a part time player, usually platooning. This year has solidified the fact that he is not a full-time player and can not handle the gig, on either side of the ball.

Heisey can get a chance next year. Watching him pull an 0-11 in the NLDS isn't really high on my things to do this fall.


And to be clear, I've never claimed Heisey IS the answer for the future in LF. I'd prefer a bigger bat actually. But if the choice is Heisey vs. Gomes, I'll take Heisey.

ok


Overrated according to who? To you? Again, Gomes for the season has been -14.7 according to UZR in left field. Heisey has been +3.9 according to UZR playing CF/RF/LF...and did we forget to mention he is a rookie? Can you not see the large gap? Has Heisey been perfect? No, but he's also a rookie and he still plays defense to the tune of almost 19 runs better with the glove. That is significant.

I'm not a fan of UZR, but I can definitely say that Heisey is a better fielder than Gomes. But we are talking about mini seasons now. How many runs is Heisey better than Gomes in a 3 game series versus Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels? Isn't there a decent chance that he will be no better than Gomes in the field in those games? And I think that there is a very good chance that Gomes would be better than Heisey at the plate.


It's pretty simple...do you want the guy who with the bad bat and the bad glove or the guy with the bad bat and the good glove? I'll take the latter.

I'll take the guy who will give me the best chance of producing in a playoff series.

kaldaniels
09-16-2010, 11:26 PM
I've just had a funny feeling over the past month or so that Gomes is going to rake in the postseason. I don't know why I feel that way, but i do.

fearofpopvol1
09-17-2010, 12:03 AM
Gomes has had success on the major league level. Heisey has had success versus Pirates relievers.

When used properly, yes, Gomes has. As a full-time player, no, he hasn't and he's proven that this year. He will have 600 ABs by season's end with nothing to show for it.


He could very easily be a .200 OPS downgrade, as sick as that sounds. I'm taking my chances with Gomes' mitt.

And he could be .200 OPS upgrade too. We simply do not not know the answer or have enough information to give a good prediction here until he does.


Heisey's minor league numbers, outside of 2 months in AA, are nothing to get excited about.

Gomes as a full time player in LF is nothing to get excited about.


Heisey can get a chance next year. Watching him pull an 0-11 in the NLDS isn't really high on my things to do this fall.

Watching Gomes misplay balls in LF costing the team runs is really not something I want to see in the NLCS, because it may prevent the team from getting to the NLDS. Especially when runs will be scarce. At least Heisey can bat 8th. I think you're drastically undervaluing defense that is money in the banks vs. someone who is feast or famine with the bat.


I'm not a fan of UZR, but I can definitely say that Heisey is a better fielder than Gomes. But we are talking about mini seasons now. How many runs is Heisey better than Gomes in a 3 game series versus Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels? Isn't there a decent chance that he will be no better than Gomes in the field in those games? And I think that there is a very good chance that Gomes would be better than Heisey at the plate.

What don't you like about UZR? What's wrong with it? Gomes has been really good lately at one thing...and that's popups in the middle infield and outfield. And he's doing it batting 5th. Maybe he'll find his way out of it, I don't know. But why should we count on that now when he's been this way for almost 4 consecutive months now? In the playoffs, I'll take someone that CAN defend (Heisey) over someone that MIGHT hit (Gomes) at the plate.


I'll take the guy who will give me the best chance of producing in a playoff series.

And that person when you factor in offense and defense would be Heisey!!

edabbs44
09-17-2010, 08:09 AM
I think you're drastically undervaluing defense that is money in the banks vs. someone who is feast or famine with the bat.

Heisey's defense is hardly money in the bank. He has had a few botches in the OF in his small sample this season.

I think that this is where defensive assessments sometimes take on lives of their own. Guys go from solid defender to GG caliber defenders when the guy in comparison is viewed as less than adequate, whether correctly or indirectly. Happened with Dickerson, happens with Janish and is happening with Heisey.

KoryMac5
09-17-2010, 12:44 PM
Honestly I don't think either Heisey or Gomes is the answer in LF. I think Walt needs to hit up Cast for some cash and go shopping for a new left fielder. Let Gomes walk and let Heisey be your 4th OF who can play all the spots.

:eek: Yikes after looking at the potential FA's in 2011 Gomes might be back.

Here are the potentials for 2011 and its pretty thin after Crawford and Werth.

Alfredo Amezaga LAD
Frank Catalanotto FA
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp OAK *
Michael Cuddyer MIN *
David DeJesus KC *
Jody Gerut SD
Jose Guillen SF
Willie Harris WAS
Brad Hawpe TB
Austin Kearns NYY
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Marcus Thames NYY
Jayson Werth PHI


Lets hope Walt is burning up the phones for an OF at the winter meetings.

fearofpopvol1
09-17-2010, 01:31 PM
Heisey's defense is hardly money in the bank. He has had a few botches in the OF in his small sample this season.

I think that this is where defensive assessments sometimes take on lives of their own. Guys go from solid defender to GG caliber defenders when the guy in comparison is viewed as less than adequate, whether correctly or indirectly. Happened with Dickerson, happens with Janish and is happening with Heisey.

Heisey is money in the bank in LF. Can you point to some specific plays in LF he's botched?

I never said Heisey is a gold glove caliber defender. In LF, he is a plus defender. A plus defender is not a GG defender, but it's a lot better than a negative/poor defender (Gomes).

Kc61
09-17-2010, 01:46 PM
Just as a matter of economics, at the relatively cheap salary for next year, I think the Reds will pick up Gomes' option.

Not saying he'll be the starting left fielder next year. He could even be traded. But I do think they will exercise, at a modest price for a hitter with 85-90 RBI in 2010.

nate
09-17-2010, 01:51 PM
To answer the original question: no.

My WoTV has Gomes as a worse defender than I originally thought; he is truly dreadful out there. That coupled with an average bat writes a check his intangibles and cool haircut cannot cash. He seems like a cool dude though. I bet he has a motorcycle!

Hesiey currently has a below average bat but I think he could be average. According to my WoTV, his glove is good. Plus, he's young and approaching his peak years. I'm not sure I would bank on him being the starter for next year, but he would be in my mix.

Raisor
09-17-2010, 02:07 PM
To answer the original question: no.

My WoTV has Gomes as a worse defender than I originally thought; he is truly dreadful out there. That coupled with an average bat writes a check his intangibles and cool haircut cannot cash. He seems like a cool dude though. I bet he has a motorcycle!

.

by "cool haircut" I'm sure you mean "stupid haircut";)

nate
09-17-2010, 02:40 PM
by "cool haircut" I'm sure you mean "stupid haircut";)

Well, someone with my hairdo isn't really at liberty to talk bad about someone else's so...

edabbs44
09-17-2010, 03:01 PM
Heisey is money in the bank in LF. Can you point to some specific plays in LF he's botched?

I never said Heisey is a gold glove caliber defender. In LF, he is a plus defender. A plus defender is not a GG defender, but it's a lot better than a negative/poor defender (Gomes).

Sure, there was the play against STL (I think the third game) where he tried to barehand a ball in the corner and it went right by him. I think it was a Rasmus "triple", but don't quote me.

There was a play a few weeks back that he botched in the corner again, unsure of the opponent or date but he definitely kicked it around. I think a run scored and the guy got an extra base.

I also remember a throw or two that he launched over the catcher but again I don't have the specifics.

You may not remember these b/c there aren't pages of game threads ripping him about the plays when they happen or threads bumped because of the plays or "so and so would have made that play" comments thrown around.

But since you refer to him as a "plus" defender, can you point out some plus plays that he has made?

edabbs44
09-17-2010, 03:02 PM
Honestly I don't think either Heisey or Gomes is the answer in LF. I think Walt needs to hit up Cast for some cash and go shopping for a new left fielder. Let Gomes walk and let Heisey be your 4th OF who can play all the spots.

:eek: Yikes after looking at the potential FA's in 2011 Gomes might be back.

Here are the potentials for 2011 and its pretty thin after Crawford and Werth.

Alfredo Amezaga LAD
Frank Catalanotto FA
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp OAK *
Michael Cuddyer MIN *
David DeJesus KC *
Jody Gerut SD
Jose Guillen SF
Willie Harris WAS
Brad Hawpe TB
Austin Kearns NYY
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Marcus Thames NYY
Jayson Werth PHI


Lets hope Walt is burning up the phones for an OF at the winter meetings.

I agree and think that a move will be made, but not forced, next season.

kaldaniels
09-17-2010, 03:23 PM
A plus play for Heisey was the one where Stubbs threw home and the ball bounced off the mound. Heisey wouldn't have done that. :D

fearofpopvol1
09-17-2010, 03:56 PM
Sure, there was the play against STL (I think the third game) where he tried to barehand a ball in the corner and it went right by him. I think it was a Rasmus "triple", but don't quote me.

There was a play a few weeks back that he botched in the corner again, unsure of the opponent or date but he definitely kicked it around. I think a run scored and the guy got an extra base.

I also remember a throw or two that he launched over the catcher but again I don't have the specifics.

You may not remember these b/c there aren't pages of game threads ripping him about the plays when they happen or threads bumped because of the plays or "so and so would have made that play" comments thrown around.

But since you refer to him as a "plus" defender, can you point out some plus plays that he has made?

You've really only given 1 specific play that he's botched with a couple of question marks...color me skeptical about your analysis. I'm not claiming Heisey has been gold glove...I am not claiming he is without mistakes. He is not perfect. I'm saying, he's a plus defender in LF.

It's pretty simple, there aren't pages ripping Heisey's defense because he doesn't make a lot of bad plays in the OF, unlike Gomes.

Heisey's great/plus plays...sure...

How about the great catch on 9/8 in Colorado to end the 6th inning that Heisey made in RF?

How about in the Giants series on 08/25 in the 12th inning where he made a sliding catch off of Uribe to bail out Cordero?

How about on 8/3 against the Pirates when Heisey made a tough catch off a ball Cedeno had hit that was headed for the wall?

How about on 7/30, against the Braves, in the 9th inning, tied game 4-4...Heisey makes a leaping grab to catch a Brooks Conrad ball that saved the game??

How about the enormous catch he me on 7/7 against the Mets late in the game when Jason Bay smacked a ball that he ran down on the warning track in RF that saved the Mets from taking the lead?

How about on 6/18, the sliding grab that Heisey made when he was in CF against Milton Bradley in the 6th inning to rob him of a single, maybe even a double?

How about on 6/8, when he made a fantastic running slide against Uribe (again) and the Giants in the 6th inning in a tight game?

How about on 6/1 against the Cardinals, bottom of the 9th when the Reds had a 1 run lead and 2 outs, the catch he made off of Ludwick in LF?

How about on 5/3, against the Mets, when Heisey was in RF and made a running catch, running into the bullpen wall/fence to keep the game tied 2-2 in the 7th inning?

edabbs44
09-17-2010, 04:53 PM
You've really only given 1 specific play that he's botched with a couple of question marks...color me skeptical about your analysis. I'm not claiming Heisey has been gold glove...I am not claiming he is without mistakes. He is not perfect. I'm saying, he's a plus defender in LF.

It's pretty simple, there aren't pages ripping Heisey's defense because he doesn't make a lot of bad plays in the OF, unlike Gomes.

Heisey's great/plus plays...sure...

How about the great catch on 9/8 in Colorado to end the 6th inning that Heisey made in RF?

How about in the Giants series on 08/25 in the 12th inning where he made a sliding catch off of Uribe to bail out Cordero?

How about on 8/3 against the Pirates when Heisey made a tough catch off a ball Cedeno had hit that was headed for the wall?

How about on 7/30, against the Braves, in the 9th inning, tied game 4-4...Heisey makes a leaping grab to catch a Brooks Conrad ball that saved the game??

How about the enormous catch he me on 7/7 against the Mets late in the game when Jason Bay smacked a ball that he ran down on the warning track in RF that saved the Mets from taking the lead?

How about on 6/18, the sliding grab that Heisey made when he was in CF against Milton Bradley in the 6th inning to rob him of a single, maybe even a double?

How about on 6/8, when he made a fantastic running slide against Uribe (again) and the Giants in the 6th inning in a tight game?

How about on 6/1 against the Cardinals, bottom of the 9th when the Reds had a 1 run lead and 2 outs, the catch he made off of Ludwick in LF?

How about on 5/3, against the Mets, when Heisey was in RF and made a running catch, running into the bullpen wall/fence to keep the game tied 2-2 in the 7th inning?

I have no idea about most of those plays from initial memory and whether each was "plus" or not, but I do remember that Ludwick play on 6/1 and Heisey broke back on that ball and almost didn't make the catch due to his initial read. It was anything but plus.

fearofpopvol1
09-17-2010, 06:11 PM
I have no idea about most of those plays from initial memory and whether each was "plus" or not, but I do remember that Ludwick play on 6/1 and Heisey broke back on that ball and almost didn't make the catch due to his initial read. It was anything but plus.

At a minimum, I've talked about lot more great plays than you have bad ones. You could only properly cite one and couldn't remember any of the good ones. Hmm...

Also, he lost his footing on the Ludwick play against St. Louis. The ground was wet from the night before. It happens. His read wasn't poor at all. You're just fishing for anything at this point to discredit Heisey's defense.

I'll say this again...Heisey is 1 WAR and +3.4 according to UZR while Gomes is -0.2 WAR and -14.7 according to UZR. Heisey has been more productive than Gomes has with far less playing time. Heisey is worth more in LF than Gomes is.

The bottom line is you would rather have the guy who has struggled with the bat and the glove over 500+ ABs and I would rather have the guy who has struggled with the bat over 200+ ABs who is an above average to plus defender in LF. End of story.

I'm done with this particular conversation.

edabbs44
09-17-2010, 08:23 PM
At a minimum, I've talked about lot more great plays than you have bad ones. You could only properly cite one and couldn't remember any of the good ones. Hmm...

Also, he lost his footing on the Ludwick play against St. Louis. The ground was wet from the night before. It happens. His read wasn't poor at all. You're just fishing for anything at this point to discredit Heisey's defense.

I'll say this again...Heisey is 1 WAR and +3.4 according to UZR while Gomes is -0.2 WAR and -14.7 according to UZR. Heisey has been more productive than Gomes has with far less playing time. Heisey is worth more in LF than Gomes is.

The bottom line is you would rather have the guy who has struggled with the bat and the glove over 500+ ABs and I would rather have the guy who has struggled with the bat over 200+ ABs who is an above average to plus defender in LF. End of story.

I'm done with this particular conversation.

No worries, but don't forget that you are utilizing a still evolving stat like UZR which needs 3 years to be supposedly accurate and Heisey is going on like a 1/3 of a season. So citing his UZR is fairly worthless at this point in his career, almost preaching that the first 60-70 PAs of his season will be representative of the rest of his season. Likewise with WAR, with the current inconsistencies in the metric. B-R has him at a 0.4 right now.

The other hole in the argument is that they are both struggling with the bat. While Gomes has struggled since May, he hasn't struggled anywhere near what Heisey has been blessing us with. Let me know if this is what you want to see in the playoffs:

1st AB vs SP: .105/.209/.158
2nd AB vs SP: .143/.205/.171
vs teams above .500: .173/.222/.307

I'm guessing that a likely response will be small sample size or whatever, but these stats tell me enough about where his success has come from this year. If Cincy pulls the Pirates in the 1st round, I'll back Heisey as starter 100%. If you want to have a shot at getting any production out of the LF spot in the lineup, Heisey is not your man.

Ron Madden
09-18-2010, 02:55 AM
You've really only given 1 specific play that he's botched with a couple of question marks...color me skeptical about your analysis. I'm not claiming Heisey has been gold glove...I am not claiming he is without mistakes. He is not perfect. I'm saying, he's a plus defender in LF.

It's pretty simple, there aren't pages ripping Heisey's defense because he doesn't make a lot of bad plays in the OF, unlike Gomes.

Heisey's great/plus plays...sure...

How about the great catch on 9/8 in Colorado to end the 6th inning that Heisey made in RF?

How about in the Giants series on 08/25 in the 12th inning where he made a sliding catch off of Uribe to bail out Cordero?

How about on 8/3 against the Pirates when Heisey made a tough catch off a ball Cedeno had hit that was headed for the wall?

How about on 7/30, against the Braves, in the 9th inning, tied game 4-4...Heisey makes a leaping grab to catch a Brooks Conrad ball that saved the game??

How about the enormous catch he me on 7/7 against the Mets late in the game when Jason Bay smacked a ball that he ran down on the warning track in RF that saved the Mets from taking the lead?

How about on 6/18, the sliding grab that Heisey made when he was in CF against Milton Bradley in the 6th inning to rob him of a single, maybe even a double?

How about on 6/8, when he made a fantastic running slide against Uribe (again) and the Giants in the 6th inning in a tight game?

How about on 6/1 against the Cardinals, bottom of the 9th when the Reds had a 1 run lead and 2 outs, the catch he made off of Ludwick in LF?

How about on 5/3, against the Mets, when Heisey was in RF and made a running catch, running into the bullpen wall/fence to keep the game tied 2-2 in the 7th inning?

How about the fine play he and Hernandez made to nail the tying run at the plate to win the game earlier this season in Houston?

Ron Madden
09-18-2010, 02:58 AM
I have no idea about most of those plays from initial memory and whether each was "plus" or not, but I do remember that Ludwick play on 6/1 and Heisey broke back on that ball and almost didn't make the catch due to his initial read. It was anything but plus.

That's what happens when we depend solely on memory.

Ron Madden
09-18-2010, 03:02 AM
No worries, but don't forget that you are utilizing a still evolving stat like UZR which needs 3 years to be supposedly accurate and Heisey is going on like a 1/3 of a season. So citing his UZR is fairly worthless at this point in his career, almost preaching that the first 60-70 PAs of his season will be representative of the rest of his season. Likewise with WAR, with the current inconsistencies in the metric. B-R has him at a 0.4 right now.

The other hole in the argument is that they are both struggling with the bat. While Gomes has struggled since May, he hasn't struggled anywhere near what Heisey has been blessing us with. Let me know if this is what you want to see in the playoffs:

1st AB vs SP: .105/.209/.158
2nd AB vs SP: .143/.205/.171
vs teams above .500: .173/.222/.307

I'm guessing that a likely response will be small sample size or whatever, but these stats tell me enough about where his success has come from this year. If Cincy pulls the Pirates in the 1st round, I'll back Heisey as starter 100%. If you want to have a shot at getting any production out of the LF spot in the lineup, Heisey is not your man.

Enough said.

mth123
09-18-2010, 04:41 AM
The Reds probably can't afford a top player for LF and the idea of moving Votto out there seems like its not an option. It also appears that the team has no intention of putting Francisco or Alonso out there if the complete lack of consideration when the team was down to 2 healthy OF is any type of indication. The Reds would seen to have a number of RH bats who could help in LF (Heisey, Frazier, Balentien) but none look like guys I'd want to give 500 ABs in a spot that the team really needs to get some significant production (since we're locked into some complimentary types at the up the middle spots that could possibly take-up the slack).

IMO the best plan is to get a productive LH bat for a platoon. Platoon status would keep the acquisition cost and payroll cost fairly low but the need for a lefty option and the abundance of righty options suggest that maybe Gomes shouldn't be back unless its as a stopgap RH half of the platoon while the others get more seasoning. His option seems reasonable though and his RBI numbers suggest that he could probably be dealt for something at that salary and for those reasons I think the Reds should exercise it. After doing so, they should try like heck to deal him and if he stays he should have a reduced role as platoon bat or pinch hitter should one of the younger guys who can defend better pass him by.

edabbs44
09-18-2010, 04:46 AM
How about the fine play he and Hernandez made to nail the tying run at the plate to win the game earlier this season in Houston?

I can remember a bunch of running catches and assists that Gomes has made this year as well.

OnBaseMachine
10-01-2010, 10:53 PM
I hate to be the guy to complain after the Reds have clinched, but the Reds simply can't play Gomes in LF in the playoffs. He is a liability. He cost the Reds the game tonight with a blunder in left field. That stuff can't happen in the playoffs. Edmonds (if he's healthy enough), Heisey, or Nix are all better options in left field.

oregonred
10-01-2010, 11:05 PM
I hate to be the guy to complain after the Reds have clinched, but the Reds simply can't play Gomes in LF in the playoffs. He is a liability. He cost the Reds the game tonight with a blunder in left field. That stuff can't happen in the playoffs. Edmonds (if he's healthy enough), Heisey, or Nix are all better options in left field.

Seems so obvious. Hopefully this saved a similar situation next week. Gomes should simply not see the field much in the postseason. Going to be tough enough to get 27 outs vs Philly, we can't afford 28 or 29. And his terrible flailing like offense of post-May isn't worth the risk.

Spitball
10-01-2010, 11:05 PM
There is a lot of Gomes frustration going on right now, but he was there for the long haul when the Reds won their first divisional title in fifteen years. He will be there in the playoffs. Accept it because that is the way it goes. Vent at me, vent at Gomes, vent at Dusty, but even Sparky, Hutch, Davy, or any of the lot would go with the horses that brought them to the dance.

Brutus
10-01-2010, 11:10 PM
There is a lot of Gomes frustration going on right now, but he was there for the long haul when the Reds won their first divisional title in fifteen years. He will be there in the playoffs. Accept it because that is the way it goes. Vent at me, vent at Gomes, vent at Dusty, but even Sparky, Hutch, Davy, or any of the lot would go with the horses that brought them to the dance.

In over 900 PAs with the Reds, he's still holding over .800 OPS. That's still nothing to sneeze at.

I think, taking into account position and defense, it's absolutely understandable if people don't think he's worth running out there. Completely understandable. But in regards to his hitting, I think some have exaggerated the liability level this year.

GAC
10-02-2010, 04:56 AM
There is a lot of Gomes frustration going on right now, but he was there for the long haul when the Reds won their first divisional title in fifteen years. He will be there in the playoffs. Accept it because that is the way it goes. Vent at me, vent at Gomes, vent at Dusty, but even Sparky, Hutch, Davy, or any of the lot would go with the horses that brought them to the dance.

Yep. That's pretty much how it's gonna be. Ya dance with the one that brung ya.

Topcat
10-02-2010, 05:01 AM
Gomes is shaky as a LF but his bat and plate discipline can not be denied. I want him as a Red if his price tag is cheap or reasonable. Mid market teams need bang for the buck and also have to accept that perfection at every position will not happen.

jojo
10-02-2010, 08:18 AM
It's difficult to justify Gomes getting starts in the outfield against right-handers in the playoffs without even considering the impact of his glove. Then factoring in the impact of his defense, one would hope he'd start against a righty only as a last resort.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 08:23 AM
It's difficult to justify Gomes getting starts in the outfield against right-handers in the playoffs without even considering the impact of his glove. Then factoring in the impact of his defense, one would hope he'd start against a righty only as a last resort.

At this point do they have any other choice?

jojo
10-02-2010, 08:33 AM
At this point do they have any other choice?

Well he would be a better option than Willie Bloomquist against righties even when considering defense. He'll always have that peg to hang his hat upon. :cool:

mth123
10-02-2010, 10:32 AM
I'm a big believer that the team needs a big bat in LF. Its not because I don't really value defense there, but mostly because I don't like the idea of compromising on defense to get the offense it needs at a more difficult position that has more impact. It makes no sense to me to to go defense first in LF (with say a guy like Dickerson) if the trade off is turning to a guy like Keppinger at SS to make up for the lack of offense. The real issue for me is that after May, Gomes really hasn't been a big bat in LF. I was a supporter of giving him the look on the cheap in the hope that his 2009 success against pitchers from both sides would carry over, but he's taken a clear step back and its past time to admit it. I think his counting stats may give him some value even at the option price, so IMO the team should excercise his option and look to include him in a deal to some team looking for RH pop. The Reds probably can't afford a big time guy, but adding a guy with lefty pop (somebody better than Nix) who can share time with one of the many RH options (Heisey, Frazier, Gomes if he can't be dealt) is a minimum the team should do. I think they should pick-up the option, but I don't like the idea of Gomes in LF every day now or in 2011.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 12:26 PM
Well he would be a better option than Willie Bloomquist against righties even when considering defense. He'll always have that peg to hang his hat upon. :cool:

Thanks for the insight

OnBaseMachine
10-02-2010, 12:32 PM
Gomes is shaky as a LF but his bat and plate discipline can not be denied. I want him as a Red if his price tag is cheap or reasonable. Mid market teams need bang for the buck and also have to accept that perfection at every position will not happen.

Really? His plate discipline is terrible. There is nothing special about Gomes' bat. Here is his OPS by the month: .621, 1.056, .704, .673, .700, .768. He's had one MVP caliber month, four horrible months, and one meh month. Basically, Gomes is still in the lineup because of one great month. Looking up and down the rosters of potential playoff teams, I think Gomes is the worst starting position player on any of the teams in the playoffs or in contention.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 12:38 PM
Really? His plate discipline is terrible. There is nothing special about Gomes' bat. Here is his OPS by the month: .621, 1.056, .704, .673, .700, .768. He's had one MVP caliber month, four horrible months, and one meh month. Basically, Gomes is still in the lineup because of one great month. Looking up and down the rosters of potential playoff teams, I think Gomes is the worst starting position player on any of teams in the playoffs or in contention.

So you actually looked at the starters for each team and then made this comment?

alexad
10-02-2010, 12:48 PM
2 Million for a back up outfielder and big time pinch hitter is a good price. The Reds have to get a big time bat in the outfield unless Bruce can hit 30-35 and Stubbs can hit 25, but hit .280 and steal 40 bases. A big bat to go with Votto would be great.

I guess the question is what do the Reds want in that LF spot? I big bat or a proven leader. I like Gomes as a leader on this team.

Raisor
10-02-2010, 01:29 PM
I like Gomes as a leader on this team.

How many leaders does one team need?

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 01:35 PM
How many leaders does one team need?

I think each of the different "leaders" lead in a different way.

jojo
10-02-2010, 01:51 PM
I think each of the different "leaders" lead in a different way.

Shouldn't they all be going in the same direction?

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 02:21 PM
Shouldn't they all be going in the same direction?

who says they aren't?

jojo
10-02-2010, 04:21 PM
who says they aren't?

they're all leading different ways.... hope someone is dropping bread crumbs.

edabbs44
10-02-2010, 05:38 PM
they're all leading different ways.... hope someone is dropping bread crumbs.

Yep. Whatever the Reds are doing this year, it is working.

Brutus
10-02-2010, 05:47 PM
they're all leading different ways.... hope someone is dropping bread crumbs.

a dummy trail?