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Votto4MVP
08-26-2010, 03:35 PM
Just for fun...

35 games left in the season for us.

We play .500 ball and go 18-17, we finish at 91-71.
Cards would have to go 23-15 to tie.

If we keep up with our current winning percentage (.575) and go 20-15 we finish at 93-69.
Cards would have to go 25-13 to tie.


And finally if you take our records how weve done against the teams we have left to play on our schedule it would go like this...

3 games vs cubs (we are 11-2 against them) so ill go with 2-1 (even though weve swept the last 2 series vs them).
9 vs the Brewers (we are 4-1 against them) so approx 7-2.
3 vs the Cards (we are 5-10 against them) so 1-2.
4 against Colorado (we are 2-1 against them) so 3-1. (since I didnt give us the ben of the doubt in the Cubs series)
3 against Pirates (who we are 8-5 against) so 2-1.
4 against Arizona (who we are 1.000 perncent against) so 4-0.
6 against Houston (who we are 7-1 against) so 5-1.
3 against SD (who we are 1-2 against) so 1-2.

So that would put us at 25-10 and finishing at 98-64.
Cards would have to go 30-8 to tie.

Now that last one obviously seems a tad bit optimistic, but really all we would have to do is play the same way against these teams that we have been all year. I think it just shows we dont have to play amazing to make the playoffs, we just have to keep playing like we have all year and maybe even a little less would kill us and we have a good shot to make the playoffs.

gmt
08-26-2010, 03:49 PM
Pretty generous outcomes. The Cubs I can see. Brewers will be tough to go 7 -2. MOre likely 6 - 3 and hope not as bad as 5 - 4. Cards could go either way. A sweep by eitehr is unlikely. Rockies are getting better. A split is more likely. Pirates better be at least 2 -1 (isn't that what the Cards said on monday?). I don't think a sweep against AZ will happen. 3 - 1 would be good. Houston has been playing better with decent pitching of late. Division rival could make for something closer to 4 - 2. SD is rolling. Unless they are tuning up and resting players, it will all depend on if those are must wins for either team for playoff qualification or positioning.

I see more like 93 to 94 wins.

redssince75
08-26-2010, 03:57 PM
3 games vs cubs (we are 11-2 against them) so ill go with 2-1 (even though weve swept the last 2 series vs them).
9 vs the Brewers (we are 4-1 against them) so approx 7-2.
3 vs the Cards (we are 5-10 against them) so 1-2.
4 against Colorado (we are 2-1 against them) so 3-1. (since I didnt give us the ben of the doubt in the Cubs series)
3 against Pirates (who we are 8-5 against) so 2-1.
4 against Arizona (who we are 1.000 perncent against) so 4-0.
6 against Houston (who we are 7-1 against) so 5-1.
3 against SD (who we are 1-2 against) so 1-2.


I quickly went through and jotted down what I consider slightly pessimistic or realistic outcomes for each season series. Surprisingly, mine added up to 18-17 (worse than I would have thought).

Cubs 2-1
Brewers 5-4
Cards 1-2
Rockies 2-2
Pitt 2-1
Arizona 2-2
Houston 4-2
San Diego 0-3


Obviously, we could pick up some games from my predictions, esp AZ or SD.

Votto4MVP
08-26-2010, 03:59 PM
I quickly went through and jotted down what I consider slightly pessimistic or realistic outcomes for each season series. Surprisingly, mine added up to 18-17 (worse than I would have thought).

Cubs 2-1
Brewers 5-4
Cards 1-2
Rockies 2-2
Pitt 2-1
Arizona 2-2
Houston 4-2
San Diego 0-3


Obviously, we could pick up some games from my predictions, esp AZ or SD.

I wasnt really saying we are going to go 25-10 in those games, all I was saying is that is what we have done so far against those teams. If we play like we have all year thats the record we would go.

But I agree we probably dont go 25-10, but it makes going 20-15 a lot more likely.

brm7675
08-26-2010, 06:05 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

Votto4MVP
08-26-2010, 06:06 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

Are you being serious?

mckbearcat48
08-26-2010, 06:08 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

Reds are better than that...I think they sweep AZ and take 9 of 12 vs. MIL/CHC.

brm7675
08-26-2010, 06:08 PM
Are you being serious?

yes i am, SD is the best team in the NL and we have to go there. Colorado is tough and we have to go THERE. So I see us struggling down the stretch. The Cards own us so we will get lucky to win 1 in St. Louis. We might win 5 out of 9 vs. the Brewers but I wound't bank on it and the Pirates who just took 2 of 3 from teh Cards are not to be looked over at all.

brm7675
08-26-2010, 06:09 PM
Reds are better than that...I think they sweep AZ and take 9 of 12 vs. MIL/CHC.

No chance they sweep a 4 game series, look what happen when the DC boys came to town for a 4 games series...

mckbearcat48
08-26-2010, 06:11 PM
No chance they sweep a 4 game series, look what happen when the DC boys came to town for a 4 games series...

Taking 3 from AZ at the minimum, I see the Reds doing very well down the stretch. Cards are going to have to play at the level they were at during the last Reds series, or this race is over.

bshall2105
08-26-2010, 06:13 PM
No chance they sweep a 4 game series, look what happen when the DC boys came to town for a 4 games series...

They just swept 3 in Arizona.

lidspinner
08-26-2010, 07:12 PM
this race is going to go down to the last week of the season, and that is almost a fact...I like looking at all the options too, and I like this thread....but to think we are going to play ball like brm said, well, thats just silly talk.....but to also play ball to get us to 98 wins is also a little silly....we are going to have to bust balls to play .500 ball.....but I would not want it any other way, if we are to be prepared for the playoffs, then playing good ball down the stretch is the way to win.

Vottomatic
08-26-2010, 07:20 PM
Just for fun...Here's my prediction.

35 games left in the season for us.

And finally if you take our records how weve done against the teams we have left to play on our schedule it would go like this...

3 games vs cubs (we are 11-2 against them) 2-1
9 vs the Brewers (we are 4-1 against them) 6-3
3 vs the Cards (we are 5-10 against them) so 0-3
4 against Colorado (we are 2-1 against them) so 2-2
3 against Pirates (who we are 8-5 against) so 2-1
4 against Arizona (who we are 1.000 perncent against) so 3-1
6 against Houston (who we are 7-1 against) so 4-2
3 against SD (who we are 1-2 against) so 1-2

So that would put us at 20-15 and finishing at 93-69.
Cards would have to go 25-13 to tie.

Zimmers
08-26-2010, 07:42 PM
No chance the reds go 13-20. Im cautiously optimistic 4 the playoffs but the reds havent played that bad all season and all the sudden with more help on the way. The cards have 30 days without a off day and that is going to hurt them big time.

Votto4MVP
08-26-2010, 08:19 PM
yes i am, SD is the best team in the NL and we have to go there. Colorado is tough and we have to go THERE. So I see us struggling down the stretch. The Cards own us so we will get lucky to win 1 in St. Louis. We might win 5 out of 9 vs. the Brewers but I wound't bank on it and the Pirates who just took 2 of 3 from teh Cards are not to be looked over at all.

You are predicting us to lose every single series except the cubs...yet weve won 15 of our last 19.

Wow, I thought some people on here were bad, but you sir are the worst.

bornready
08-26-2010, 08:30 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.HA! you can't be serious at all...seriously, do you feel the need to be as negative as possible?

Zimmers
08-26-2010, 08:35 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

i think this post is one of two things. 1. If the reds do bomb he can say "told you so". 2. He is a reds fan that thinks 80 percent of the season has been a fluke.

OGB
08-26-2010, 10:28 PM
Keep in mind that the Brewers, Dbacks, Pirates, and Stros all figure to be playing a significant amount of young players, with the Sept call ups. For years we've seen the Redlegs do the same thing. Veterans and struggling starters either get sat down more often or suffer some suspicious injury that sidelines them for most of the month.
Hell, they don't even play the Cubs in September and they've already turned over how much of their 25 man from Opening Day?

And to anyone prepared to make the argument that "the Reds always brought those young guys up at the end of the season, played well for 30 games, and gave false hope to their fans, so other teams prospects might do the same."--well, last year was an abberation. Look it up. The Reds traditionally played very poorly when auditioning young players in September.



Arizona 2-2

Obviously, we could pick up some games from my predictions, esp AZ or SD.

You can say that again. If the Reds split against that sorry team at home in mid September, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

webbbj
08-26-2010, 11:02 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

i hope this is a joke. this team has resonded from adversity played every game like its their last. they didnt come this far to just crumble down the stretch. the pressure will not get to them they have thrived under pressure.
bronson wont let this opportunity pass by.

cueto, volquez, bailey have something to prove. and wood is just flat out confident and wont dissapoint. votto is chasing a triple crown and will carry this team on his back if need be. i treat him like a 10yr vet w/ 3 rings b/c he plays and acts like that.


heres my prediction:

cubs 3-0 (no derek lee no lou so their worse than b4)
brewers (6-3) wont be easy but hey we just win series
cards (maybe im too optimisitc but i see 2-1)
rockies (2-2. i think we are very equal w/ them)

pirates (IDK what the cards problem is but were sweeping. this team is lucky to win 55)

arizona (3-1, were just better, but they got enough offense to steal one)
houston (ill be pessimistic and say 3-3)

SD(ill be pessimistic again to even things out 1-2)


so 21-12

brm7675
08-27-2010, 11:30 AM
You are predicting us to lose every single series except the cubs...yet weve won 15 of our last 19.

Wow, I thought some people on here were bad, but you sir are the worst.

I think the presure will get to this team. Also we have to look at the ailing health of some players and the question marks around Leake, Edinison, Wood and Bailey. We basically have Bronson and Cueto and hopes. Is Leake worn down, can Edinison throw strikes and last more then 4-5 innings, how is Wood at this point and how much more can he go?

What is the health status of Orlando and how much will Dusty push him instead of playing Janish more? What kind of damage was done to BP on that ball that struck him and how will it effect his swing? How is Rolen's back doing? Add to all of that the presure of being the team chased for the first time in 20 years and I see us struggling.

brm7675
08-27-2010, 11:31 AM
Keep in mind that the Brewers, Dbacks, Pirates, and Stros all figure to be playing a significant amount of young players, with the Sept call ups. For years we've seen the Redlegs do the same thing. Veterans and struggling starters either get sat down more often or suffer some suspicious injury that sidelines them for most of the month.
Hell, they don't even play the Cubs in September and they've already turned over how much of their 25 man from Opening Day?

And to anyone prepared to make the argument that "the Reds always brought those young guys up at the end of the season, played well for 30 games, and gave false hope to their fans, so other teams prospects might do the same."--well, last year was an abberation. Look it up. The Reds traditionally played very poorly when auditioning young players in September.



You can say that again. If the Reds split against that sorry team at home in mid September, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

Didn't the Reds split with a Sorry Nationals team at home just a while back?

brm7675
08-27-2010, 11:36 AM
i think this post is one of two things. 1. If the reds do bomb he can say "told you so". 2. He is a reds fan that thinks 80 percent of the season has been a fluke.

No I just think that we are physically wearing down and the presure of being the team chased is going to cause issues. Look at what the 'presure" of a so called HUGE home series with the cards and what that presure did to this team. Lets remember this team is in a position it has not been in since 1990, the majority of these players have never even sniffed the playoffs. I hope I am wrong, but after watching them throw an egg up in SF against a team battling to make the playoffs, I have some concerns.

New York Red
08-27-2010, 11:52 AM
No chance they sweep a 4 game series, look what happen when the DC boys came to town for a 4 games series...
That was when they had Strasberg, who we lost to. We won't have to face him next time around. We take at least three that series.

gmt
08-27-2010, 12:36 PM
It's a roll of the dice. Younger players may start for the noon-contenders, but if the non-contenders veterans were not getting the job done, who's to say the younger players won't do better? plus they have a possible starting job and better contract to play for. There may be some pitchers not seen before that give the Reds problems. Their hot shot AAA players have enthusiasm. Don't discount the possibility of a team out of contention having a lot more to play for than just finishing out the season.

sean
08-27-2010, 01:10 PM
Our hitting will be there. It's really a question of which pitchers show up. If Wood and Volquez are hitting their spots, we're absolutely one of the best teams in the league. If Volquez leaves the game in the 4th inning after throwing 100 pitches and we have to rely on our bullpen, then we're a totally different team. It doesn't matter if we can touch them for 5 runs if we just got slammed for 10.

For the sake of the thread -

3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 6 lose 3
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 2 lose 2
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 3 lose 0
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 3 lose 1
6 against Houston --- Reds win 4 lose 2
3 against SD --- Reds win 1 lose 2

23 - 13

Votto4MVP
09-03-2010, 05:15 PM
3 games vs cubs -- Reds win 2 Lose 1
9 vs the Brewers -- Reds win 4 lose 5
3 vs the Cards --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Colorado --- Reds win 1 lose 3
3 against Pirates --- Reds win 1 lose 2
4 against Arizona ---- Reds win 2 lose 2
6 against Houston --- Reds win 2 lose 4
3 against SD --- Reds win 0 lose 3

Final total Reds win 13 lose 22.

Still going with 13 and 22? lol.

Guess we would have to go 8 and 21 now for your predictions to be right.

Wiggidy
09-03-2010, 05:24 PM
I'm calling it right now, Reds sweep the Cards this weekend and take 3 of 4 against the Rockies.

justincredible
09-03-2010, 06:31 PM
I'm calling it right now, Reds sweep the Cards this weekend and take 3 of 4 against the Rockies.

http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/0808/youre-youre-crazy-man-frank-the-tank-demotivational-poster-1219152399.jpg

:)