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View Full Version : The San Diego Padres are a Monster



Phhhl
08-28-2010, 01:08 AM
The rotation is good, but it is not even remotely that. It is the bullpen. Adams and Gregerson both throw in the high 90's with knuckle ball movement on their offspeed pitches. Heath Bell probably has the best "stuff" of any closer in either league right now, and the triumverate probably comprises the best bully in major league baseball since the fabled "nasty boys". I wouldn't buy their offense at The Salvation Army Store, aside from Adrian Gonzalez. To be fair, the rotation is well above average with Latos, Garland and Richard chewing up quality innings like a sprinter eschews rocks and garbage. Running into this team is like hitting a brick wall at 60 mph. But, historically, it has some work to do. No other team we see in the here and now profiles in a similar way to these Padres. They have found a way to exploit the vast dimensions of their ballpark and win in a very economic way. To get to the World Series, National League teams are going to have to learn to outsmart this organization in a way that they have not yet perfected, and it is not going to be easy.

sabometrics
08-28-2010, 01:12 AM
The Padres have perfected the art of shortening a game to 6 innings if their starter can get there (and they've been quite good at that). Really impressive. I'd say they're reminiscent of how the Twins have excelled in the area, but they've really taken it to the next level.

Tom Servo
08-28-2010, 02:01 AM
I kept waiting for them to fall, for the Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies to pull ahead and see the Padres rather anemic offense come back to bite them.


And yet going into September they're 26 games over .500, 6 ahead in the division. So what do I know.

Brutus
08-28-2010, 02:04 AM
Nice jinx!

Seriously, though, they're a good team but they're very beatable. You just have to get to them early or you won't get to them at all.

As mentioned, their bullpen is tremendously good. Their starting pitching, though, is partially benefactors to a pitcher's park and good defense. Latos is really good, but the rest of the staff is pedestrian. They're consistent, get deep into games and keep their team in the game. That's been a great recipe. However, the rotation as a group is hittable and since their offense leaves a lot to be desired, I don't think they're terribly intimidating.

Again... it comes down to getting on them in the first 6 innings. Their bullpen is pretty remarkable.

Caveat Emperor
08-28-2010, 04:27 AM
As mentioned, their bullpen is tremendously good. Their starting pitching, though, is partially benefactors to a pitcher's park and good defense. Latos is really good, but the rest of the staff is pedestrian. They're consistent, get deep into games and keep their team in the game. That's been a great recipe. However, the rotation as a group is hittable and since their offense leaves a lot to be desired, I don't think they're terribly intimidating.

To that point, Latos is the only pitcher in their rotation that has a sub-4.00 ERA on the road.

Padres (and the Reds too, for that matter) would be hard pressed to be considered favorites in a short-series against a team like Philly or St. Louis -- both of whom can throw hammer starters on back-to-back nights (Halladay/Hamels or Wainwright/Carpenter -- pick your poison).

Heath
08-28-2010, 08:28 AM
And the Reds still have to play a few games with the Padres in San Diego.

It would be our luck if the Pirates played the Cardinals that weekend in St. Louis.

redsfandan
09-04-2010, 09:52 PM
I kept waiting for them to fall, for the Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies to pull ahead and see the Padres rather anemic offense come back to bite them.


And yet going into September they're 26 games over .500, 6 ahead in the division. So what do I know.
The monster has now lost 9 straight games.

oregonred
09-06-2010, 12:05 AM
The Redszone jinx apparently extends all the way to the Pacific. Seeing a club like the Padres suddenly lose 10 in a row means I don't think postseason until the champagne is popped. Bad timing for the Reds as the Rockies are rollin' as per usual in September.

fearofpopvol1
09-06-2010, 12:24 AM
It really is stunning. 10 straight.

That's what makes me worried about getting too ahead of ourselves with the Reds and the playoffs. There seems to be a theme the last few years of 1 team either having a monster run or 1 team having an epic collapse. If the Reds happened to have the epic collapse, similar to what San Diego has endured...the Cards easily could win the division.

Hopefully the Reds will be just fine (knock on wood).

Brutus
09-06-2010, 01:10 AM
It really is stunning. 10 straight.

That's what makes me worried about getting too ahead of ourselves with the Reds and the playoffs. There seems to be a theme the last few years of 1 team either having a monster run or 1 team having an epic collapse. If the Reds happened to have the epic collapse, similar to what San Diego has endured...the Cards easily could win the division.

Hopefully the Reds will be just fine (knock on wood).

The Padres were playing above their heads with that offense and rotation of theirs. After Latos, as was pointed out early in the thread, their rotation is pedestrian. Combine that with a suspect offense and they weren't likely to continue the pace they were on.

The Reds aren't really doing anything unsustainable. They're plugging along slowly but surely, gradually gaining ground. I think both teams are now right where they should be.

fearofpopvol1
09-06-2010, 02:50 AM
The Padres were playing above their heads with that offense and rotation of theirs. After Latos, as was pointed out early in the thread, their rotation is pedestrian. Combine that with a suspect offense and they weren't likely to continue the pace they were on.

The Reds aren't really doing anything unsustainable. They're plugging along slowly but surely, gradually gaining ground. I think both teams are now right where they should be.

I don't know about that. The Padres run differential is +31 (102 compared to 71) better than the Giants and the Giants are only back 1 game. Something is off right there. Padres still have a better run differential than the Reds even (albeit by only 3 runs), even after their 10 game losing streak.

sabometrics
09-06-2010, 03:00 AM
I had a coworker try to convince me that we didn't have a starter that could be the #2 on any other playoff-contending team. The Pads were the perfect counter to that argument. Their starting pitching has been overachieving all year and it's finally catching up to them. One only wonders how long Latos can keep going at this pace too.

MattyHo4Life
09-06-2010, 08:32 AM
The Reds aren't really doing anything unsustainable. They're plugging along slowly but surely, gradually gaining ground. I think both teams are now right where they should be.

I agree with you on this. Whoah...is this a first? lol The Reds have a good young balanced team so I don't see a collapse in their future. They may not be a team that is built for the playoffs, but I think they will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs.

bucksfan2
09-06-2010, 09:11 AM
I haven't bought the Padres all season long. They just don't have the offense to sustain the rate at which they were winning. Outside of Gonzales I just don't buy their offense at all. Its a a nice story and I hope they make the playoffs, but their lead is down to one game over a Giants team that hits better and pitches better than them.

Degenerate39
09-06-2010, 10:11 AM
I really hope the Padres win the Wild Card so the Reds could possibly get them first round

kbrake
09-06-2010, 10:30 AM
I really hope the Padres win the Wild Card so the Reds could possibly get them first round

If the Phillies are going to make the playoffs which it seems they will wouldn't it make more sense to hope for them in the first round? I've been thinking about this lately and I just think if you're going to have to deal with them wouldn't it be easier to play them in a 5 game set?

Scrap Irony
09-06-2010, 10:59 AM
Phillies are tough, no question. I'd rather face Atlanta, San Diego, or San Francisco, frankly.

But, really, it's just nice to have the conversation.

mth123
09-06-2010, 01:10 PM
If the Phillies are going to make the playoffs which it seems they will wouldn't it make more sense to hope for them in the first round? I've been thinking about this lately and I just think if you're going to have to deal with them wouldn't it be easier to play them in a 5 game set?

Maybe somebody else could knock them off in a 5 game set.

membengal
09-06-2010, 01:15 PM
If we are entertaining fantasy scenarios, I would like the Reds to find a way into the playoffs with the best record, and the Braves be sitting there in the Wild Card. A chance to show the Bobby Cox the door in his last playoff series? I would like that very much.

Then let the Phillies and Giants figure out who has the best pitching staff in the other series...

Crosley68
09-06-2010, 01:20 PM
Cautionary tale. That is how fast it can all go to "hell in a handbasket".

OnBaseMachine
09-06-2010, 01:44 PM
Cautionary tale. That is how fast it can all go to "hell in a handbasket".

It's why I won't feel comfortable until the Reds clinch the division. I would have felt a lot more comfortable if the Reds had won that game yesterday.

redsfandan
09-06-2010, 07:41 PM
It's why I won't feel comfortable until the Reds clinch the division. I would have felt a lot more comfortable if the Reds had won that game yesterday.
And today.

MattyHo4Life
09-06-2010, 09:41 PM
If we are entertaining fantasy scenarios, I would like the Reds to find a way into the playoffs with the best record, and the Braves be sitting there in the Wild Card. A chance to show the Bobby Cox the door in his last playoff series? I would like that very much.

Then let the Phillies and Giants figure out who has the best pitching staff in the other series...

What do you guys think the Reds rotation should be in the first round of the playoffs?

Cedric
09-06-2010, 09:48 PM
What do you guys think the Reds rotation should be in the first round of the playoffs?

Ok... We get it...

MattyHo4Life
09-06-2010, 09:51 PM
Ok... We get it...

I think Wood is your best starter. That game on Sat convinced me of that.

Phhhl
09-06-2010, 10:17 PM
I think Wood is your best starter. That game on Sat convinced me of that.

That sounds to me like a fan who still believes his club is going to catch the leader. I don't blame you if so, six games is not insurmountable. But, it is still kind of a slight to what Bronson Arroyo's career has amounted to. The prevailing wisdom in the St. Louis realm, from the pitching coach and manager to the fanbase, seems to be that Arroyo is either the luckiest pitcher in the game, or a cheater. As good as Travis Wood has been this year and as bright as his future may be, he has a long way to go to become the ace of this staff.

Suggesting with a comment like that that the Reds really don't have an "ace" is not an especially subtle way of saying that there is not a whole lot of league-wide respect.

This team needs to put the Cardinals away as soon as possible, because they are already starting to become emboldened.

MattyHo4Life
09-06-2010, 10:23 PM
That sounds to me like a fan who still believes his club is going to catch the leader. I don't blame you if so, six games is not insurmountable. But, it is still kind of a slight to what Bronson Arroyo's career has amounted to. The prevailing wisdom in the St. Louis realm, from the pitching coach and manager to the fanbase, seems to be that Arroyo is either the luckiest pitcher in the game, or a cheater. As good as Travis Wood has been this year and as bright as his future may be, he has a long way to go to become the ace of this staff.

Suggesting with a comment like that that the Reds really don't have an "ace" is not an especially subtle way of saying that there is not a whole lot of league-wide respect.

This team needs to put the Cardinals away as soon as possible, because they are already starting to become emboldened.

One big difference between Wood and Arroyo is that Wood is young and will only get better. He is really good right now, and he will get better. Arroyo is what he is. He is a steady workhorse. 6 games is a loooong way. It's almost an impossible task, because the Reds have to completely collapse in order for the Cardinals to have a chance to catch up. The Reds haven't shown any signs of collapsing.

Tornon
09-06-2010, 10:32 PM
One big difference between Wood and Arroyo is that Wood is young and will only get better. He is really good right now, and he will get better. Arroyo is what he is. He is a steady workhorse. 6 games is a loooong way. It's almost an impossible task, because the Reds have to completely collapse in order for the Cardinals to have a chance to catch up. The Reds haven't shown any signs of collapsing.

The problem with Wood is, he's shown us he can be a tad shaky at times. Coming up through the minor leagues, I don't think he has ever shown himself to be THIS good.. so it's just a matter of the league catching up to him at some point and his numbers evening out. If that manages to never happen, then sure he can be our ace

redsfandan
09-07-2010, 03:48 AM
The problem with Wood is, he's shown us he can be a tad shaky at times. Coming up through the minor leagues, I don't think he has ever shown himself to be THIS good.. so it's just a matter of the league catching up to him at some point and his numbers evening out. If that manages to never happen, then sure he can be our ace
Didn't he have a pretty good '09?

edabbs44
09-07-2010, 06:01 AM
If the Phillies are going to make the playoffs which it seems they will wouldn't it make more sense to hope for them in the first round? I've been thinking about this lately and I just think if you're going to have to deal with them wouldn't it be easier to play them in a 5 game set?

Short series with those 3? Questionable.