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View Full Version : Rob Neyer Of ESPN On Reds Transformation



bagz
08-28-2010, 05:18 AM
Good blog on Reds from Rob Neyer.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/4986/the-reds-amazing-transformation

Tampa Red
08-28-2010, 07:06 AM
Very interesting piece. Neyer basically states that the Reds offense has played a bit over their heads and may be due for a bit of a downward turn in September. He pinpoints Phillips, the catchers, and the bench as being due for a slide. That said, he's not sure the Cardinals are good enough to surpass the Reds.

I think I'd have to disagree about being due for a slide. By September, you are what you are. I might agree if this was June or even July. But, the vast majority of the 162 game season has been played and the Reds lead the league in runs. That is no fluke.

Besides, if Bruce continues his hot hitting, it won't matter. I have to ask, if others are due for a slight downtick, isn't Bruce due for an uptick? Like Votto, Bruce is capable of putting this team on his back for a few weeks. He is in the zone right now and can single handedly make up for any shortfalls elsewhere.

In the end, the weaknesses are the same now as before. Phillips, the catchers, and the bench are the least of my concerns.

RiverRat13
08-28-2010, 10:21 AM
I have to agree with one of the comments below the article that it was an extremely lazy piece by Neyer. It read like a guy who missed on the Reds before the season started and now is reluctant to give them their due. The 0.4 WAR difference between the Pujols/Holliday and Votto/Rolen be explained the by the 24 more games that the Cardinals pair has played this year. If the two pairs are able to play a roughly equal amount of games the rest of the way, I'd wager that their down-the-stretch WARs will be equal. Neyer also called Votto a "veteran", which I guess may be fair for a third year player but the fact remains that considering his age, Joey had the best chance of any impact player on either roster to make the jump that he did. Joey's season is not a fluke.

Neyer then talked about the "unsustainable" Reds yet failed to mention the player who is the least likely on either roster to sustain his success, John Jay.

improbus
08-28-2010, 10:31 AM
The strength of the Reds has been the consistency of Votto/Rolen and the ability of the others to get hot while others get cold. He failed to mention that the Reds offense is still scoring despite getting almost nothing from Gomes for the last two months.

Boston Red
08-28-2010, 10:44 AM
The Reds are "only" 128 games in. Is there really a question about sustainability at this point?

bagz
08-28-2010, 11:09 AM
I liked the beginning of the piece where he mentions our catching tandem being one of the most successful in the league. This team has depth and sustainability which we all have faith will take them to the World Series.:thumbup:

GIDP
08-28-2010, 11:17 AM
Reds have a couple guys who might slip back. Cairo, Nix, and Phillips to a degree are all performing over their career numbers. The point is Cairo and Nix wont likely hit enough for their drop offs to matter a ton, and Phillips is a bit of a different hitter now. Rolen might be another guy who has a chance to slip back some.

In the end it likely wont be a huge drop off.

New York Red
08-28-2010, 12:33 PM
The strength of the Reds has been the consistency of Votto/Rolen and the ability of the others to get hot while others get cold. He failed to mention that the Reds offense is still scoring despite getting almost nothing from Gomes for the last two months.
Definitely nothing from Gomes. Also, Rolen has been a lot less productive since the all-star break, partly because of injury. And Brandon Phillips wasn't hitting after the break until the past couple weeks. I don't think Rob Neyer did his homework for this article.

Votto4MVP
08-28-2010, 01:00 PM
You go 5 months with the number 1 offense and its not sustainable for the last month?

Dont get that...

ThornWithin81
08-28-2010, 01:14 PM
Lazy effort from Neyer, although that is really all you can expect from anyone working for the Mothership.

757690
08-28-2010, 03:19 PM
in the pre-season, Neyer thought the Reds would suck this year. This article is just a CYA moment for him. "The Reds are winning games, but... "

But it still is fun to read.

UC_Ken
08-28-2010, 06:35 PM
There may be a player or two playing over their heads but I think Jay Bruce may be starting to realize his immense talent. If he OPSs .900 over the last month that will make up for anyone else regressing to their expected performance. Stubbs is another guy I think can exceed his performance to date. Plus if we play Heisey, Nix, and Edmonds more in LF then we'll get far more production than we have to date from that spot.

Vottomatic
08-28-2010, 09:13 PM
I think it's irresponsible thinking to not consider that young players get better and start to reach their potential. Not always, but most times they do.

This year is one of those "everthing coming together" moments.

Well organized. Well developed by team management.

Just give credit where credit is due and don't try and overthink it too much.

skywalker
08-29-2010, 12:06 AM
Phillips will not slide

757690
08-29-2010, 12:16 AM
Phillips will not slide

That's going to make running the bases a lot harder. Especially stealing. :cool:

Kingspoint
08-29-2010, 07:24 PM
Go back to your nerdy stats, Rob Neyer, and leave the predicting to those who judge things by what they see on the field.

New York Red
08-29-2010, 08:50 PM
There may be a player or two playing over their heads but I think Jay Bruce may be starting to realize his immense talent. If he OPSs .900 over the last month that will make up for anyone else regressing to their expected performance. Stubbs is another guy I think can exceed his performance to date. Plus if we play Heisey, Nix, and Edmonds more in LF then we'll get far more production than we have to date from that spot.
You're all over it. For each player we have playing over their head, we have one who's yet to realize their potential. This series with the Cubs was a perfect example of that. Lead-off hasn't been a strength of this Reds team, and neither Bruce or Stubbs has hit their career stride yet. But in this series, with those two guys sharing lead-off duties, we saw what each is capable of offensively, and how dangerous they could be in that spot of the order. So while Neyer may think the Reds offense could drop off, there's equal evidence to suggest the offense might not have even peaked yet.

bagz
08-29-2010, 09:44 PM
You're all over it. For each player we have playing over their head, we have one who's yet to realize their potential. This series with the Cubs was a perfect example of that. Lead-off hasn't been a strength of this Reds team, and neither Bruce or Stubbs has hit their career stride yet. But in this series, with those two guys sharing lead-off duties, we saw what each is capable of offensively, and how dangerous they could be in that spot of the order. So while Neyer may think the Reds offense could drop off, there's equal evidence to suggest the offense might not have even peaked yet.

Those 2 guys were incredible in these games. I think Stubbs should be trying to bunt for a base hit maybe 2 out of 8 times if he's leading off an inning. That 6th run scored against the Cubs was a thing of beauty.

Krawhitham
08-29-2010, 09:48 PM
I think the true Cincinnati offense isn't quite this good, and that we'll see a small tick downward in September

They have been doing it for 5 months, at what point does it become the "true offense"?

ThornWithin81
08-29-2010, 09:50 PM
They have been doing it for 5 months, at what point does it become the "true offense"?

As soon as we start losing. If we roll into the playoffs and lose in the NLDS in four games or less the "True Reds XYZ" will have shown up.

This is just what lazy sports journalists do. Nothing to see. :beerme:

Kingspoint
08-30-2010, 12:40 AM
They have been doing it for 5 months, at what point does it become the "true offense"?

No kidding.

At some point, these stats guys just have to admit they were wrong and they didn't know what they were talking about.

aceace
08-30-2010, 05:44 AM
They may slump but as we are now seeing Bruce and Stubbs are coming out of theirs.